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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  August 10, 2017 9:00pm-10:00pm EDT

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rishaad: 9:00 thursday evening in new york city. president trump ramping up the war of words and telling north korea it will suffer like never before it launches an attack. yuan,ikely win among the one of the best performers among 30 major currencies. : demand from china helping singapore smash estimates in the second quarter. the economy growing far faster than thought. this is bloomberg markets: asia. ♪
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rishaad: uncertainty of geopolitics affecting sentiment out there. having a look at the volatility index, going to show you what is going on, because we've got levels being elevated. ofe risk since the end october. this is where we are at the index.with the vkospi we have missile tests that elevated risks, but not quite like this. normally south korea is sanguine when it comes to the threat from the north, but nerves are creeping in, haidi. haidi: that's right, and just as well that the japanese markets have closed. to latest public holiday
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appreciate the beauty of the terrain in japan. that does not mean the yen is not trading. we are seeing further demand as a result of the safe haven that picked up pace overnight. we are 15 minutes out from the opening of china and hong kong. dave will take a look at the markets. dave: we went from 112 to 109, i guess keeping with your mountain day theme. we are off-peak. far, inrkets opened so the past hour. three markets opening up -- taiwan, singapore, malaysia. big drop. the story among the currency markets has been a bit yes for the yen, but also for the chinese currency. have a look at the renminbi. .his is your dollars cnh global , we arey across bonds
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very much getting yields backing up and equity futures, as you can see. very much under pressure. australia, why are we looking at this market? 200 day moving average, first time in weeks that we are below that. currently that should be at 56.88. we are three points south of that level, 56.85 on the asx 200. t, really traps it in real time where we are. we are trading at about 1.06 at the moment, kind of wide. our session high was at 109.22, very briefly at 109 on the indicative range. watching closely, this has been
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really very torrid, if you will, -- ng a sort of let's take a step back, where we are right at dollar-yen. there is not a lot of support ther. we are looking ate a 52-week moving average. this is a charge we keep rehashing because it has held quite well. one of nine. -- 109. where do we go from here? in japan was open, we would be down about 2% here. rish, not a very good day to bid on equities. rishaad: it has been coming, though, hasn't it? and tensions have exacerbated things. there is one country in southeast asia which is certainly benefiting from global trade. let's get to the first word news headlines with paul allen. .all: it would be singapore
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the economy growing far faster than thought. gdp rose to 2.2% from the previous three months. the median forecast from our bloomberg survey was just half of 1%. singapore has benefited from a recovering global trade, bid by strong chinese demand for electronics and manufactured goods. commodity trade in noble saw -- as trading offered unlimited access to funds piled under pressure. net debt reached $3.8 billion by the end of june, as the company reported a second-quarter loss. noble is retreating to its asian roots and selling assets. the stock has lost more than 90% since 2015. get traviss suing to kalanick kicked off of uber's board. benchmark was an early uber backer with a 30% stake.
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a partner led the effort to have kalanick removed as ceo in june. kalanick fraudulently gain control over three board seats by hiding what he calls gross mismanagement of the company. robert mueller appears to be bearing down on president trump's former campaign chairman in a widening investigation into alleged collusion with russia. a washington grand jury is said to have issued subpoenas for global banks for the financial records of paul manafort and his longtime business partner rick gates areas -- rick gates. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. .aidi: thanks for that president trump has ramped up the pressure on north korea, warning kim jong-un not to go ahead with his threat of a missile strike on guam. the president has already promised firing at. , so what would that mean for the rest of asia -- fire and
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fury, so what would that mean for the rest of asia? there looking at not just economic impact on north korea, but some of the regional economies that are significant on a global theme. what type of impact every bracing for? >> i think the first thing to say is that obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty, and hope and expectation is still centered on a peaceful resolution. that said, if military options to come more clearly into view, there is a huge amount at stake for the asian and global economy area where i would -- global economy. this,i would put it is korea is home to electronics who,s like samsung and lg both through their products and their technology, play a central role in the global electronics supply chain. we were just hearing about how
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singapore has done better than expected on that recovery in global trade. if we start seeing mystery options on the korean peninsula, if we start seeing electronics supply chain start to break down , well, that global trade recovery is not going to be so robust, either. rishaad: obviously, south korea is the most directly threatened. at the top of the hour, we were looking at the volatility index. elevated levels, to put it mildly. tensione signs of hurting the market, but is there tension hurting the economy? tom: i think you put it well, rish. south korean markets are pretty jaded. south korea has been living in the shadow of the military threat from pyongyang for a long time. it takes a lot to have the south korean markets set up and pay attention, but this week they have started paying attention. the kospi is down, the korean
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won has fallen. what that suggests to me is, even in the absence of luxury start hurtingl confidence in south korea. over time, that will pass through to investment hiring consumption decisions, and that is going to start taking a toll on the south korean growth outlook. and, tom, of course, the north's economy, we don't know much about it. we know it is pretty much front and center when it comes to the military, though. what is going on there? a black box. i think the way i would put it, the way i would captioned the state of the north korean economy, is it is small, poor, and backwards. small, we are talking probably around $830 billion economy by way of comparison to the u.s. at $18 trillion.
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poor, probably gdp per capita by best estimates is around $1300. that puts north korea among the poorest countries in the world. and backwards, this is an economy that relies on experts -- exports of raw materials like coal and basic textiles. that means that north korea is very vulnerable to economic .ections effectively imposed, they would choke off the supply of currency to the north korean regime, and ultimately impede their military development. rishaad: tom in beijing. going to be are joined by brently vinson the u.s. korea institute of john hopkins. still ahead, pain as the struggling commodities try to post a $1.9 billion first half
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loss. we look at options for survival. haidi: first, the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged as the governor does his debut policy meeting area he will join us from manila. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines area that softbank's vision fun is said to be said -- investing in flip cards to step up its challenge to amazon. it would make them the biggest shareholder. bezos plans tof spend at least $5 billion on an indian market that has been growing at a 30% clip every year. a chinese insurance
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company is facing pressure from a labor group of hotel workers in the united states. they are asking authorities to force the company to shine light on its ownership and financing. it went to the -- the union went to the labor relations board. the former u.s. ambassador to japan, caroline kennedy, is joining the board of knowing. .- boeing the ceo says she brings diplomatic and liberal perspectives that are highly valued. is increasingly reliant on the asian pacific, the fastest-growing aviation market in the world. rishaad: philippine central bank governor nestor espenilla kept policynchanged at his meeting while raising the
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country's inflation outlook. governor, thank you for joining us. what prompted you to keep rates on hold, and what was your first meeting like? bradley: with -- basically, in our assessment, inflation conditions in the philippines remain quite benign,ign, -- quite and domestic demand was quite firm. we felt it was appropriate to keep monetary policy where it was. also, my first board meeting was pretty smooth. if i may say so, it was rather business as usual. well, one of the things that must have been on your mind when setting rates was the level of the peso. we are very near 11 year lows for the peso. is that bothering you?
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, it is basically following a flexible exchange rate policy. we have exchange rates determined by market conditions. we are comfortable that the economic fundamentals are all right, and that the exchange rate will remain within manageable levels. the exchange rate factor as well as the tax reform plan, they seem to be getting some upward pressure on the inflation outlook. what is your outlook, and does that give you some thoughts about being more in a hurry to tighten? theor: with respect to outlook, we increased slightly our projections, and that's projectedcause of increases in the oil price consumption in our forecasts. nonetheless, the revised outlook
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is still close to the midpoint , plus target range of 3% or minus one. you talked about exchange rate movement. the movements of the exchange rate have been relatively ourst, and based on experience, exchange rate depreciation has been very limited, and that's because of changes into the -- changes in the economic structure. regarding reform, that is still under discussion in congress. we are hopeful that this will pass, and when it passes, our expectation is that its impact on projected inflation, mostly next year, would be perfectly minimal, perhaps, in the half percentage point range. but still well within our inflation target, and we don't expect that to persist. in fact, we expect it to dampen
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by 2019. governor, what about the concerns that there are systemic risks building the economy? is that something that puts pressure on you to potentially cut sooner rather than -- or rather, hike sooner rather than later. mr. espenilla: we are closely monitoring credit conditions. i think our starting point to the the level of credit in the is relatively low in the region. the philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies right now, but the growth is well within our growth potential. now, we are not seeing signs of overheating.
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at the micro level, although credit is growing, banks stay at his store close. from our perspective -- historic lows. from our perspective, the growth of credit remains within manageable levels. at the same time, we continue to look at certain sections of the market, and for that we have deployed market protection measures to keep things under control. how do youvernor, actually weighing the philippines off this reliance of remittances from overseas workers? think we have i to look at that from a growth perspective. are over as medium-term horizon. the trust in the government is to widen the economic case, and that is driven by a buildup and investments, particularly infrastructure.
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we are trying to attract more movements across the broader segment of our economy to generate jobs locally. this is actually the ultimate attracting more labor into the economy, rather than relying on remittances. nonetheless, remittances continue to be a major contributor to the philippines' economy. governor, if it be the case that inflation's stay pretty much subdued and under control, do you think the next 12 months will be a good window to cut the reserve requirements? mr. espenilla: we are always looking at our options at this, haidi, and we look at this as a basic reform in the way we conduct monetary policy. a driver for that is the stability of the inflation certain as well as
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financial sector reforms that we are trying to introduce as well. we are looking at this from a medium-term perspective, but definitely we would like to see a face exit out of high reserve requirement regime, which differentiates the country from the rest of the region. we would like to do something about that. haidi: governor, appreciate your time. we hope to speak to you soon. that was the philippines central bank governor, nestor espenilla. for certain moves in on pharma. that is in the free market session next. ♪
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haidi: this is bloomberg markets: asia. i'm haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: i'm rishaad salamat in
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hong kong. we are counting you down to the start of the trading day here, just minutes away. free market, a 1.6% fall back. 443.4 for thes a hang seng, and just a couple of days ago, this benchmark was showing a 25% or 26% gain your today. -- year to date. one stock we are watching,, this companies soaring in the entered a session. its biggesthad intraday gain in two years, a 5.9% moved to the upside for china mobile, and what's it going to do? it will pay its first special dividend since 2008, and it is marking the anniversary, raising
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its payoff to shareholders. this is after the chinese government canceling long-distance roaming tariffs. been building up of 4g networks, intensifying competition for those who did to spend more on data services. they say they hope to reach 100 million subscribers to their 4g service. they said they added 58 million, maybe 59 million, in this period as well. people are looking for more of the same, haidi. yeah, a difficult market to be trying to buck the trend, if you will. some green spots potentially when we open in hong kong. this is a major chinese conglomerate withholdings across a variety of different hotels, and they really try our -- they really are trying to go into
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pharma at the moment. they are pursuing one of the bidders on art of pharmaceuticals. fosun looking for a stake of at least 20% to 30%, according to people familiar with the matter, fosunhis comes after bid on an indian drugmaker recently. this is the story of chinese drugmakers being ambitious and trying to pick up assets they give them access to the u.s. it is a demographic story as well, with the rapidly aging population in china. there tends to be a rapid move downside for the stock. we have the chairman taking questions by authorities on one occasion. that stock eases up 1220%, but it has underperformed the hang
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seng this year. coming up, noble group posting a $1.9 billion loss. it is struggling with barreling debt and is trying to selloff assets just to survive. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: it is 9:29 a.m. in hong kong. we are counting you down to the start of the session. let's just look at what's going on, because it is about geopolitics, this war of words between washington and pyongyang . as a result, investors are running for the havens, and they are finding those havens in the , the swiss franc, and the yuan also. david will talk about that in the second.
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vix surging 44% yesterday. we've also got one eye on inflation numbers out of the united states. cti and pti out a bit later today, haidi. haidi: the highs on the vix are the highest we have seen so far. geopolitical tensions have been the highest since the start of the presidency. in terms of the safe haven, gold searching -- surging to that two-month high. with global equities at these all-time record highs and how much things have changed, shanghai and hong kong markets just opened. let's get today. about how shanghai marches to the beat of its own drum. they are joining the off-peak, if you will, or the off paste session we are seeing so far this friday. at the moment, shanghai
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is very much in line. what -- david: at the moment, shanghai is very much in line. let me get started with the renminbi. the median forecast of the market is playing a little catch up because of the string we have seen over the past four or five sessions or so. what we have seen in the last few minutes -- let me see if we can get a shorter term look at this -- there we go. erased all ofy the strength it has put on since a.m.utoff of 4:00 or 5:00 668.19.ar at we will continue to follow this closely, but you take us back cointreau days, we are basically back to levels at the start of the week. let's take a look at how things are shaping down. across equity markets, we are poised for the first weekly drop in five weeks. hang seng off by 1.4%, 400
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points, the biggest drop so far this year. yesterday, drop about 700 points, biggest two-day drop since september of last year. 51 on the dollar, the first time in 11 years. japanese yen very much a haven play at the moment, as with gold. 12.90.moment, futures are also on the way down. one market to focus on, south korea. what are we looking at? it is quite a drop since the peak of about four or five weeks ago. 30 is the level0 03 is the moving average, the number you want to watch. let's have a closer look at the rfi.
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very much overbought, if you will, back in may and june. have a look at the loss of momentum the last few weeks or so. we have gone from 75 on the rsi. level in heree 40 as well. do we bounceback above that? if we bounce back and come back down, some people look at that as maybe a complete loss of momentum for that index. this is one you want to watch .losely, 9352 on your bloomberg let's have a look at where we are in hong kong. this breaks down the hang seng index for you. we are off by roughly 400 points. just about every single stock is down. let's see how this plays out. china mobile still getting a bit. -- a bid.
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.encent down 5% that should be the biggest drop in that stock in about a month. rishaad: let's get to the first word news headlines. here's paul allen. .aul: thanks, rish president trump is turning up the heat on north korea, saying perhaps his fire and fury message was not tough enough. his remarks follow escalating rhetoric from both sides, triggered in part by last week's you info on more sanctions -- u.n. vote on more sanctions. pres. trump: if north korea does anything in terms of even ofnking about attacks anybody that we love or represent, or our allies, or us, they will be very nervous, and they should be. things will happen to them like they never thought possible.
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paul: the u.s. is moving forward with a criminal investigation into money stolen from the malaysian state investment fund 1mdb. has askede department a los angeles judge to suspend civil lawsuits against the malaysian financier at the center of a criminal investigation. allegedly $1.7 billion was used to purchase real estate. the government paid an annual dividend of about $4.8 billion. since dividends after closing its accounts in june, and paid twice as much last year and even more in 2015. that theed earlier governor had -- google has canceled a staff meeting that would have addressed the firing of an engineer for questioning
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diversity in tech. the meeting was cut after questions were late raising concerns that employees who posted them iv harassed online. the employee wrote an internal memo saying that women are less suited for working in tech than men. he was fired and has accused google of smearing him. --red by more than powered by journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. haidi: we are keeping an eye on singapore stocks after a company posted growth that exceeded expectations. our chief international correspondent for southeast asia has been taking a look at these numbers. it is a good performance, because we often use it as a bit of a bellwether, given how externally for a memorable -- externally vulnerable it is for tradewinds. >> not enough to get the stock set of negative territory.
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as for the numbers, haidi, q2 gdp coming in at 2.2% quarter on quarter versus 0.4% before. singapore's economy is getting a boost. recovery in global trade helping to lift manufacturing. as you know, singapore is highly dependent on trade and exports. it benefited from a recovery in global trade. since may of last year, china's demand for some i can doctors has been pretty strong -- first semi conductors has been pretty strong. singapore will grow 2.5% this .ear, up from 2% risks, even are though export led industries are growing strongly. consumer focus, talking the
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likes of retail, they are going to be pretty weak because of job cuts that have been rising. something to keep an eye on. rishaad: you are talking about the prospects of the coming quarter. what assumptions are they making about what happens to the global economy, haslinda? the governor says the global economy has remained stable for some months, and that may continue. it is on track to do better this year compared with last year. in the secondnded half. the eurozone is also looking pretty promising. improvement in the labor market, better business sentiment. that made boost domestic demand. that's on the upside. the downside risk is china. there are doubts on whether china can sustain its growth. the government trying to put a lid on the credit bubble.
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don't forget the anti-globalization settlement -- sentiment. that remains. policies of the u.s. government, ongoing brexit negotiations, who knows what the tensions in the korean peninsula may bring as well. rish, haidi. one company listed in singapore is noble group, posting a first-half loss of $1.9 billion. net debt surged by almost $1 billion. it is putting pressure on this company. jim, what did you make here of these earnings? we could ask you about the highlights. were there any? >> i suppose when you talk about highlights, they are in relation to what the prophet was. the highlights, maybe we should call them the low lights.
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in the second quarter, they had billion, and $1.75 that was $1.3 billion of exceptional items, most of that related to net valueon ford -- gains on ford contracts. is what i highlighted as an inflated value of those contracts. it seems that the one thing to take away seems to be the new brooman is taking a new to clean up the browns she -- the balance sheet. how are the lenders reacting to this? it has been pretty tough on that front. it has been difficult on the lending side. that debt went up to something like $3.8 billion. commodity trader, his lifeblood
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is financing. when the lenders -- when lending gets constraint, that's a real problem for his business. it was said yesterday that it had secured support from another trading company and three core banks for access to financing for its asian business, and that is significant because asia is where it wants to build its business. haidi. it has been doom and gloom for this company for years . they are actually pretty quickly running out of time now. james: i mean, yeah. that's a fair assessment. i think they've got over two months now. the key date seems to be october 20. the credituse facility expires, and you've got the borrowing deadline for the base facility as well. in those two months, they've got
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to complete the sale of the u.s. gas and power business. also, they've got to stem the losses in their underlying operations, which is absolutely crucial. as an indication of the concern among lenders, the credit default swaps this morning edged just above june record, to about 12% according to data compiled by bloomberg. that's where we are at the moment. the next two months, everything to play for. haidi: we will speak to you soon . jim, thank you for that. we are going to talk more about noble. the likelihood of a default simile increasing. also, continuing to look at the economic applications across asia, these escalating tensions between the u.s. and north korea
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. it's got implications for many regional economies in the form of trade going through this part of the world. ♪
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a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. of waypointomes jumped after agreeing to a three -- 4.3 billion dollar deal to create the largest single-family rental landlord in the u.s. the resulting company will have more than 82,000 homes in atlanta. invitation shareholders will own 59%, with starwood waypoint investors holding the rest. rishaad: bloomberg is being told that india's biggest state-run energy producer will tap debt markets for the first time erie -- mg executives telling me
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the money will go to pay for the government's stake in petroleum as well as bankrolling other projects. haidi: the wall street journal says wells fargo chairman stephen singer will probably step down before a shareholder meeting early next year. we are likely to see elizabeth duke replace him in the chair. tensions intensified last month after the bank said half a million clients had been billed for extra car insurance. on theselet's get more rising tensions between the united states and north korea. joining us is bradley babson, chairman of the dprk economic forum at the johns hopkins school of it danced studies -- of advanced studies. also joining us is our chief asia correspondent. bradley, let's start things off with the possibility of war.
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is the greatest danger here something happening by accident? bradley: i think that's what everyone is most worried about, creating a a lot of apprehension not only in the general public, n thelso as we have seen i financial markets in the u.s. and asia. haidi: i want to throw up a quick chart that shows our viewers how much of a role china has to play in this. china taking the lion's share when it comes to north korea's exports. we have these un's sanctions. how do you rate the effectiveness and limitations of these sanctions in being able to resolutions or getting north korea closer to the negotiating table? mr. espenilla: i think china is careful about those wanting to be seen -- bradley: i think china is careful about both wanting to be
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seen as increasing pressure on north korea as they come to the negotiating table, but at the same time they want to control the risk of instability in north korea, and the way they sanctionsthe yuan moderates these two interests they have. the most recent sanctions increased significantly the potential pressure for both china and russia to follow through not just to the letter, but the spirit of what the sanctions are intended to do. they had left open significant room for innovation, both labor is stills allowed to repatriate. there are significant north korean exports such as textiles which were not affected by the sanctions. my reading is that they will increase pressure, but the north
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korean economy is not going to be destabilized by this latest round of sanctions. , howad: bradley significant is it that oil was left out of this round of sanctions, and how long do you think that china could pull a lever on cutting off oil to north korea? i think oil is critical to the stability of the north korean economy, and both russia and china have used oil as an important leverage in their relationship with north korea. currently, the oil that is provided by china to north korea is not reported. so the amount and value that is being provided is not transparent. . they have been unwilling to include oil exports except for can be usedich
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for military purposes. other exports have been kept outside of the sections, but they do control the oil flow, and in the past they have found "technical difficulties" in their pipeline when they have wanted to send a message to north korea. the north koreans are very aware that china can pull the plug on them anytime they want, but they want to control that bilaterally . they don't want that subject to multilateral processes in decision-making. -- and decision-making. what are the implications of war? we don't really want to go they are huge in terms of the global supply chains. .> probably significant south korea makes up 2% of the world economy. they are home to the biggest electronic manufacturers, shipbuilders. they are the second-biggest maker of semi conductors. if the world is in conflict, we
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would be talking about significant shortages of television sets, of cars, and that would rip through the global economy in terms of scarcity and inflation. bradley, we've got to take a break. please stick around with us. discuss. loads more to ♪
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rishaad: still with us from the northeastern united states is bradley, chairman of the dprk economic forum at the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies. thanks for sticking around. bradley, what happens next? in the past, we have had north korea essentially mollified by a. -- by aid.
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this time, that is not happening. what a carrot, or several carrots, perhaps persuade kim jong-un? i think it is important to realize that economic security for any country has to be an essential component of the overall national security equation. ultimately what north korea is looking for is a different security calculation for themselves in the future, and an economic part of that is important. a now prioritize economic development at the same level as their missile and nuclear programs. we begin to miss that fact that they are making a big effort on their own to build up their own economic development future. that is a great opportunity for carrots, because it is not just giving them things we think they need, but things that they know they need, and they have their own economic development strategy, and in their own way
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they are making progress on that . their economic growth last year was higher than it has been in a long time, and there are a lot of changes in the incentives to make more efficient use of domestic resources and higher productivity in the domestic economy that is one inadvertent byproduct of sanctions. it is causing him to do things in terms of their own economic more than management they have ever done before. that is a big opening, to help them find an economic security future that can be linked to a negotiation process. we have not really have that opportunity and earlier negotiations, where there might be an economic component to those negotiations. bradley, china has a mixed record when it comes to enforcing sections. how long is it that you think this time around they will rigorously enforce these new
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sanctions? how can we know the sanctions are being enforced in the first instance? the first six months of this year, china made a unilateral declaration that they were going to suspend all coal imports, which has been ratified security council, but china has been following that policy for the first half of this year, and coal imports significantly declined. while imports from north korea went down 13% the first half of this year compared with 2016, imports from china to north korea went up 18%, and the financing gap between imports and exports has risen to quite high levels. million in the4 quarter. todi: bradley, we are going have to leave it there, but we appreciate your time.
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also, our very own enda curran with rish in hong kong. coming up, losses just keep coming. ♪ whoooo.
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...on the hotel you want. trust this bird's words. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices. ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: tensions between the united states and north korea escalated dramatically yesterday following president trump's warning that the country's nuclear threats would be met with fire and fury. president trump: north korea best not make any more threats to the united states. they will be met with fire and fury, like the world has never seen. he has been very threatening, beyond a normal statement. and as i said, they will be met

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