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tv   Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power  Bloomberg  November 1, 2017 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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are following. another setback for the gop as the tax bill is pulled -- is delayed by a day. will the infighting threatens her effort to pass legislation before thanksgiving? have democratic congressman earl blumenauer from oregon. we will have what he has to say about the 24 hour delay and his thoughts on the congressional agenda, moving forward. we've got one fed decision out today, another tomorrow. investors wait for the president picked to be the next fed chair. -- presidents pick to be the next fed chair. ♪ david: we are told we would get one by tomorrow. republicans having trouble getting the team behind a plan. let's go to capitol hill.
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what explains the delay? one of a hammering out at this point? -- what are they hammering out at this point? >> it sound like they are still turning the dials. they don't have the answers yet to some of these key questions, specifically how to make what is about $6 trillion in tax cuts reduced to about $1.5 trillion by finding ways to pay for it, so they are looking at things like ending the state and local deduction, changing text breaks for retirement benefits, a variety of things and they have not fully come up with the answers yet in a way that makes that work with the mathematical number. next steps are the here, presuming it comes out tomorrow? layout the next several weeks of the sausage making, so to speak. sahil: it is going to be an extremely busy few weeks. if all goes to plan, the bill
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comes out tomorrow, the ways and means committee sends it to the floor of the house. they pass it out of the house and the basin intends to operate on a parallel track. they're not going to wait for the house to complete its vote before they release there's. sometime between now and thanksgiving, we should expect to see the senate start to move on a bill. if they can both get it passed around thanksgiving, they can spend the month of december and selling it before they send it to the president's desk. that is an optimistic scenario. david: the president saying. as the final process moves along. here we have the president inserting himself in the debate again. what has member reaction been to what the president had to say? the individualg
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mandate would reduce the subsidies pretty substantially because about 15 million people would lose their coverage in the government would save about $400 billion. president trump's tweets came one day after the house's top badwriter said this was a idea that he was not planning on including it because he worried it could kill the tax bill, much like trying to repeal parts of obamacare killed health care reform for the republicans. i spoke to the number three republican in the senate who said there is appeal to this idea. he said there are members in the conference that are in favor of it, but he said right now he does not anticipate it being included. he says this is the kind of thing that could throw a wrench into tax reform by before they are about to release a bill that is being with his -- meticulously negotiated. . david: thank you very much, sahil kapur on capitol hill.
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julie: staying with the tax reform, if the bill is released tomorrow, officials will have 10 official days to do nothing short of rewriting the u.s. economic engine. care to talk about what is feasible and what is fantasy is democratic congressman from oregon, earl blumenauer. he is joining us now from capitol hill. usnk you so much for joining to talk to us about this. are there any potential areas of agreement at this point between democrats and republicans in what we are expecting from the tax bill? rep. blumenauer: it is hard to say, because what they have done and i would say, i take slight exception to what you reporter said about it being meticulously negotiated. my fellow republican members of the committee have been fed information with an eyedropper. a text, lett seen
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alone a hearing on this and involve people in the other party. antithesis to what is necessary if you are going to do serious tax reform. they have given up on reform. they are now looking for the biggest tax cut that they can get and they are all over the map. it is very uncertain that they are going to be able to pull this together, because they are not working together, let alone working with democrats and letting the american public know what is at stake. david: let me ask you about what you and your democratic colleagues were up to, the other night as this was being hammered out. were you over at the hawk and dove? give us a sense of what you were doing. rep. blumenauer: we were preparing to have a walk-through of their bill, which was promised to be released on halloween eve, right after midnight.
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of course, word came that that has fallen apart and it is punted for a day and they don't appear to be any closer in terms of any of the fundamental problems. they are completely abandoning the notion that this was going to be deficit neutral, that it would not add to the deficit. they are having this difficulty while they already agreed they're going to increase the deficit $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, while cutting hundreds of millions of dollars from medicare and medicaid. this is going to be very difficult to pull together and if the american public understands what they are doing, they are going to have the same result as they had with their ill-fated effort to deny people health care by repealing the affordable care act. julie: if you were to see a version of the bill and you were to have these discussions with your colleagues, what would you and your democratic colleagues like to see in this bill? what would be our top priority?
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rep. blumenauer: we would like to major that the benefits flow to middle and lower income americans. increase earned income tax credits, the able to deal with things that will create jobs rather than adding to the deficit in order to give the past bulk of the benefit to large corporations and very wealthy individuals. that is what their own report shows and ironically, their own survey research shows that is not even what trump supporters want. they don't want to enrich corporations that are doing reasonably well and concentrate the benefits to the very top income earners. no matter how much they repeat that it is for middle income, it is not. the facts are clear and we would rather deal with what they said they wanted but are not putting in this package. david: last question. what is the democratic strategy going forward?
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to allow this to operate any type -- the tight timetable, or are you going to try to derail things or obstruct the process? rep. blumenauer: what we are going to try to do, when we get a chance to work in committee. we have had no hearings on this, and this is a massive transfer of wealth and a massive increase in the national debt. we're going to use the time to try and focus on things that we think the american people -- american public would want. funding infrastructure, helping low and moderate income people and not making things worse, making them better. david: thank you very much, oregon congressman earl blumenauer from the house ways and means committee and tax subcommittee. julie: with get a check on where the markets stand. all three averages are trading at records. abigail doolittle is here with the latest. abigail: we are looking at mixed trading action.
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take a look at the nasdaq. up about half a percent. a bit of a reversal here and apple is really the culprit. the worst day in quite some time. it will be interesting to see whether the averages were reversed. let's take a look at some of the earnings movers on the day. we do have some big upside winners. beatf these companies earnings estimates. forecast lifted their on their china expansion. clorox guidance missed a midpoint but they beat earnings. pfizer beat earnings by 4%. the guidance has matched consensus. investors have breathed a sigh of relief. we are going to see it at atsion lows -- its
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session lows. tomorrow, there is another fed decision. let's hop into the bloomberg and take a look at the 10 year yield. morgan stanley is saying that if jerome powell is nominated as the new fed head, the 10 year yield is likely to stay in that blue range. however, if john taylor of stanford university is nominated , the 10 year yield is likely to close close or to 2.7%. either way, those rates are superlow. julie: indeed they are. david: coming up, day two us in the testimony -- testimony for executives from facebook, twitter and google. we will have the latest from capitol hill. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is bloomberg markets: balance of power. david: earlier today, can griffin announced he would donate to the university of chicago. we get to erik schatzker with more. erik: can griffin with us from chicago by telephone. good afternoon. the obvious question, you are a harvard grad. you have given to harvard, so why give to the university of chicago? ken: i am excited about the vision that the president has for the university and it is a chance to support the premier economics department of the world. erik: your name will grace that
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economics department, going forward. tell us what else you were specific about in terms of requirements that you made of the university in exchange for this gift? ken: i am a member of the board of trustees of the university and i see the careful consideration they give to every item of spending. rather than force them to spend on a particular cause or reason, they've got great latitude to put this money to the best use. importance, we want strong packages of financial aid for all students and we want to have the resources to attract the best graduate students and the best professors to the university and in particular to the economics department. erik: do you think that is important, to give universities the latitude to decide what to do with the money on their own? i ask because many gifts are very specific. ken: when you look at restricting gifts to
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'siversities, unless the gift of a short-term nature, you can find yourself in a dilemma that the cause of that gift is no longer relevant to the promises -- problems a society faces. erik: the university of chicago getting $125 million from you. harvard got $150 million from you. forgive me if this comes across as a crass question. how do you decide how much to give? ken: i had been giving to education for over 20 years. it is near to my heart. i am so grateful for the education i had. the opportunity that harvard gave me. over oneto give well billion or -- $1 billion or several billion dollars to hire education. this is so important to our
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society that every single young men and young woman in our country has access to our best schools and that our best schools have the ability to fund the research that will keep america competitive in the global landscape. erik: that is an extraordinary commitment, billions of dollars. you talked about the importance of research. could you give us a better idea of where you expect to donate that money, and specifically to what, if anything? ken: i am focused on areas of research that are going to keep america competitive, whether it is in the hard sciences, basic research or the university of chicago, an understanding of economics and the focus on real experimentation, behavioral economics. how do consumers and businesses really make their decisions and how they allocates case -- scarce resources. erik: i want to thank you for spending some time with us. always good to see people
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giving. ken griffin, the ceo of citadel doing a gift of $125 million to the university of chicago. julie: the second day of tech hearings on capitol hill. officials from google, twitter and facebook are giving testimony on russia's influence in the 2016 election. mark warner rated lawyers for the tech companies for a lazy response to russian interference. let's get a recap of what we heard, yesterday and what we can expect, today. we have already gotten some fireworks. mark warner was critical of the representatives. he said your first presentations were less than sufficient and he said that these companies have essentially blown off the numbers of congress's concerns. do you think silicon valley is getting the message? >> i think after today, they're getting a message they had not
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gotten before. i don't think they have yet gotten the message about how grave the challenge that they pose, despite all the wonderful benefits they offer, the challenge they pose to society is bigger than they have wanted to or were even capable of analogy. but was amazing to me was how uniform, with only one or two exceptions across the entire group of senators on the committee, how angry they are. senators burr, cornyn and rubio on the republican side all said extremely negative things that were very -- in deep suspicion of these companies. both california senators, feinstein and harris really ripped into these companies. those are their constituents that they have been championing for years. point in thising
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world of the world -- relationship between these tech .iants david: what do you make of the response that we have heard from ?hese lawyers their omissions in the last few months, they came to grips with the fact that this happened on a much larger scale than they would have thought maybe did not even think about. how much do you think that is grounded in truth, that they would be so surprised? david: i think they were surprised because they were not trying to figure it out. what is not legitimate is that they were not trying to figure it out. here is an interesting point. these companies are absolutely passionately opposed to regulation. and yet only when this hearing approached did they finally do the work they needed to do to figure out what was going on, which to me says we absolutely must have regulation and ongoing
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government oversight of these platforms because otherwise, they are not going to do enough. julie: what happens now? do you think they will be forced through the honest as bill or another piece of legislation to reveal the sources of funding for political ads? david: a lot of the things they showed today showed us a willingness to go in that direction. ,hether or not that bill passes i'm certain that bills will pass that regulate behavior. this is only one of a number of areas where we are going to need legislative and regulatory intervention regarding these companies. privacy is another. the future of artificial intelligence is another one where we will need to take action at the government level and not just in the united states, but all over the world. does that pose a threat to these companies? yes because it will cost them money.
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are you looking for them to outlining clear terms what they would want to see? what do you think is going to happen? david: i tried to know mark zuckerberg as well as anybody. i have huge respect for him. i think he is a visionary with good intentions. this just occurred to me in the last few days. think of all the criticism that trump gets what he does not have a press conference for a few months. the same thing should be true of these leaders. these companies have a weight in society that is comparable to government. they have to really answer to the public. they should be taking questions from people like us, from informed questionnaires regularly and they will ultimately find that is to their benefit but up until now, they basically have avoided that, almost desperately. julie: a press conference from mark zuckerberg. david kirkpatrick, techonomy
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media founder and ceo, as well as author of the facebook effect. david: another showdown on capitol hill. scott -- scott garrett testifying. democrats are united in opposition along with key republican on -- lawmakers and we are joined by former chairman and president, frexit -- fred hochberg. let's talk about mr. garrett. you held this bank. you thought the banks should not be around. why do you think the banks are so adamant and keeping his nomination out there? why keep him? fred: it is mystifying. state after state and companies
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are opposed to his nomination. it is quite surprising. trump sincerely wants more manufacturing jobs and wants to make those jobs here in america and that is what ex-im bank does. choosinglike -- somebody like scott garrett was not a peculiar choice. julie: some critics have said if it is going to continue to exist, it needs certain reforms. do you think of garrett does get confirmed that he can go in and make some reforms? do you think the bank needs to be reformed? fred: this is an amusing question. in 2012 and 2015, between two reauthorization's, almost 40 reforms were put in. two top minded republican chairman of the have -- chairmen of the house
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financial services committee. left almost a year ago, we had complied with every single mandate put in 2016 with a few exceptions that required a board to approve. becauseittle skeptical if i asked the semesters what kind of reforms, they say i don't know, just reforms. of course every agency could use reforms. we made those reforms. we streamlined the agency under president obama. a record number of jobs, exports. a default rate that was about one quarter of 1%. i am a little mystified, what else do you need to do? we have to compete as a country. president biden in chicago, against china and foreign competition. sure we can make
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meet the competition and serve middle-class workers. david: without a full compliment of board members, there have been restrictions of what kind of transactions the bank can do. give us a sense of what that has meant for this bank. year i was there, it was fiscal year 2016. the bank supported about 50,000 jobs, about $5 billion of authorization. the last time it saw a number that small was 40 years ago. has done 170 times more authorizations. $34 billion, last year. seeding these export opportunities to china and korea while we are wringing our hands wondering what other reforms we can do to make sure the bank operates in some way that
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republican senators have not been able to articulate. david: great to see you as always, fred hochberg, form and chairman of the u.s. export import bank under president of the- former chairman u.s. export import bank under president obama. -- that will be a 12:00, wall street time. julie: up next, president trump is set to embark on the longest trip to asia of any president in modern history. what he plans on tackling in the region. we will be discussing that, coming up. as we go to break, a quick check on markets. a mixed picture at the moment. the nasdaq, the underperformer of the day. ♪ who knew that phones would start doing everything?
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mark: president trump is calling measureser immigration after the terror attack in new york city that left eight people dead and 11 wounded. the attacker is a number -- is an immigrant who came to the united states legally in 2010. he has not said whether he was admitted to the diversity immigrant visa program that covers immigrants from countries with low rates of immigration to the u.s. president trump: we want a merit-based program. they come in based on merit. we want to get rid of chain migration. mark: the diversity visa program provides up to 15,000 visas annually by lottery. governor andrew cuomo says the suspect left the note referring to islamic state. he says the men was radicalized after coming to the u.s. a police officer shot and arrested the suspect after the attack, which authorities say
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the suspect had been planning for weeks. some tough talk on the european union from british trade secretary liam fox. he accuses the eu of acting like again. he told british lawmakers some people want to punish the u.k. for leaving the eu. negotiations resume next week. russian president vladimir putin arrived in teheran today to take part in a trilateral summit between azerbaijan, iran and russia. this comes as the iranian nuclear deal is threatened by president trump to not recertify the agreement. it is inspected a focus on terrorism and security issues. security -- is considering security measures. or country could use ferries military ships to provide housing space of local alternatives become overwhelmed.
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the migration minister says daily arrivals from turkey have increased four fold since august to more than 200 per day. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julie: thank you. get is a busy week for president embarks he is about to on his longest trip to asia of any president in modern history. they comes at a tense moment in the region as the threat of the north korean nuclear program is looming and no strategy for initiating trade talks to reject the -- to replace the rejected transpacific partnership. joining us now is scott mulhauser. he is former chief of staff of the embassy in beijing and chief of staff of the export import bank at the united states. you are bringing a lot of threats together for us today. thank you for joining us. let's start with this situation in asia.
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i have been reading about the briefings the president has been receiving in advance of his trip. what do you think is going to be the top priority? scott: first, thank you for having me. this is going to be quite a trip. on friday the president and barks in a 12-day, five-country trip that will really end up focusing on china. china is the fulcrum. china will be the middle of the five countries. there will be a challenge between the optics of the trip and the substance. the president on the campaign trail and the president off it has talked tough on china, but he is warm to president xi. president xi just successfully got another five years courtesy of the -- his recent party congress. he is at the apex of his power and watching the president dance between the challenge of looking tough on china and getting real deliverables out of the strip, while also -- of this trip.
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it will be what everyone is watching. david: we met when you are in a to a senator -- aide to a senator. tell us about presidential visits. and happens on the ground what groundwork has been late for the conversations he will have? scott: david, it is great to see you again. everything gets scrutinized. that includes everything from the stairwell going up to the airplane, onto the substance of the trip. typically on these visits the american side looks for deliverables they can produce. things he saw during president obama's administration focus on things like cyber and reducing the amount of cyber incursions, onto climate progress, market access, human rights and a host of others. the challenge will be the chinese like the optics. they like to see the leaders standing side-by-side. i think everything and every
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piece of this visit gets scrutinized. if there are pickups, everyone people will look to see what comes out of this and see if markets are open and see if there is the yield president trump promised out of this visit. julie: president trump and president xi have a cordial if not warm relationship. they are friendly. does that help smooth over some of what could potentially be some snafu's on this trip? scott: great question. that warming is going to be clear to many very quickly will deliverield substantive and actual progress, for if it is merely a warm and personal friendship.
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he similarly had a visit with abe when he went down to mar-a-lago. they golfed together and had a great visit. the challenge in visit like these is the turned the personal one, a great relationship he has with these two leaders into real deliverables. that is what companies and markets are looking at. that is what our allies are looking at. but warmth can benefit us, if there is real substantive yield out of this trip. david: i want to go back to your senate experience and ask about capitol hill. as the ways and means chairman works on this draft of legislation, we expect something from the senate later on. there is optimism among republicans that this could happen very quickly. how do you see this playing out? the marriage of what republicans in the house and senate are creating. how realistic is the accelerated timetable? scott: you have seen the
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so-called big six worked feverishly on the draft. we expect you to get the first look at that -- we expected to get a first look at the draft last night, and again this morning when kevin brady was to unveil the actual substance and the text of this legislation. around 9:30 the chairman announced we would not see it today. they are struggling with how to pay for the bill, which is the biggest challenge. they are struggling with provisions like the estate tax that can really reverberate back, which benefit the wealthy and reverberate back on president trump and his cabinet. deductions, it is holding up the bill. progress can come but it has to move quickly. every day delay makes those who want tax reform to become a reality that much more of a challenge. julie: you think it ultimately
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will become a reality? will we at least get a package of tax cuts that both sides can agree to? scott: i think that is what washington is wrestling with. it starts with taking a look at what the house unveils as soon as tomorrow morning, if not this evening. next week we have to look at what the senate's proposal will look like. from there we will see if the limited congressional calendar allows this to get done in the sense if the votes are there. it is a slim margin in the senate. wo at is a scant number, t most that they can lose. how close can they cut this and get this done. every one of these provisions affects somebody. rather -- whether it is retirees, these changes come out of people's wallets, corporate bottom lines. and that's important for
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families across the country. julie: thank you so much for your time and perspective. scott mulhauser, former chief of staff of the u.s. embassy in beijing. plenty for joining us. david: bahrain is looking to allies for financial aid. the island nation is attempting to stave off a crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this is bloomberg markets. julie: i am julie hyman. david: bahrain is staving off a crisis. the island nation was to replenish its foreign currency reserves and avoid a currency devaluation. and theabia, kuwait,
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uae have told bahrain to bring their finances under control in assists -- in exchange for assistance. let me start by asking how dire the situation is and what accounts for it. data and you have seen foreign reserves also dropped to about $1.4 billion in august. expects the reserves at the end of the year to only be more than one month of import cover, which is dangerously low. we don't see that reflected in bahrain's assets because there is expected -- expectations there will be a saudi-led bailout or a possible devaluation. julie: if there is eventually a what is devaluation, the interest in these allies helping out bahrain if indeed there was the evaluation or some
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other instability? what is the view of the ripple effect that could occur? alaa: it's a small economy. but because the region is under pressure from prices, you have some people predicting it will be a contagion risk. basically investors shifting attention to who is next. ,ou have economies like oman which is also considered to be vulnerable. perhaps 2016, people were expecting they can't afford to sustain it any longer. the unexpected twist in this is that these countries have asked in return for barring to reform its finances. david: let me ask you about the strategic importance of bahrain. how about geopolitics? this is a place important to the u.s. as well.
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there is a base or two in bahrain. how is that coming into play? alaa: bahrain is home to the navy's fifth fleet. is a very important saudi ally. in 2011, at the height of arab spring, it was the home of some of the most violent protests. we saw a saudi-led military intervention to restore order. bahrain is a key member of the saudi heck of a coalition -- saudi-led coalition against qatar. they were calling for their membership in the gcc to be frozen. it is considered a major ally in the saudi sphere. people talk about this more than they would talk about bahrain being a close u.s. ally. is bahrain able
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to enact some of these financial reforms its counterparties -- these other countries are now demanding? alaa: that is the trick. bahrain had some reforms in his budget, but if you look at imf numbers they expect a 13% deficit to gdp, the largest in the gcc. bahrain is in the situation because it is a monarchy with a shia majority population. that has played into the instability, but other countries are doing the same thing. saudi arabia has embarked on some reforms that people did not doect his leadership to like slashing capital spending. it is possible. alaa, thank you very much. julie: it is time for our stock
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of the hour. papa john's was on pace for its worst session in almost a decade. the drop tied to the company's earnings, politics in the nfl. abigail doolittle is with us. tie all the threads together for us. abigail: it is amazing this could have to do with the nfl but that is what the company is saying. relative to the quarter it was basically in line. sales basically flat but they had already diminished numbers. they are beating numbers that were lower. the company is blaming the nfl debacle on its weak sales. the ceo is going after nfl commissioner roger goodell, saying his poor handling of the national anthem issue hurt pizza sales. we have a great quote. "the nfl hurt us by not resolving the current debacle to the players'and owners' satisfaction." that is a pretty strong statement whether or not it is true are being used to mask
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other problems the company is not really known. she is making a point it should have been resolved a while ago. the national anthem issue started about a year and a half ago. if we hopped to the bloomberg and look at sales growth, we will see back in the third quarter of 2016 that there has been a steady decline, perhaps over the entire national anthem anniversary -- anthem controversy. this is the latest quarter. these numbers really coming down. they are the nfl's largest pizza sponsor. they are looking for a bit of a rebound even though the forecast is going back down to the first quarter. it is ugly and hard to know if this is a smokescreen or if the sponsorship really has dragged down sales. david: the stock is having its worst day in nine years. what analysts saying about the likelihood that will continue? abigail: there have not been many weighing in yet. we will have more today and
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tomorrow. we look at the technicals of this stock chart and is looking pretty ugly. if we hop to the bloomberg and and at 4182, back in 2014 2015 there was a nice uptrend. something similar here. sellers are now in control. it is worth mentioning there is a 20% short interest, so not everyone is surprised by the decline. some are pushing for the possibility and a decline for the nfl or other reasons. julie: the ceo is a donor to president trump, so politically he is leaning towards president trump's comments about the nfl. david: we are only a few minutes away from the fomc meeting. it is fed chair janet yellen's last. it is overshadowed, by a bigger show tomorrow president trump's
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big review of his choice to be the next chair. peter break the sound is carl joining us in new york. will this be a boring decision? we are looking ahead to december. carl: relatively low-grade. this is setting the stage for december for the rate increase. there are a few moving parts that the fed watchers will be paying close attention to. what is the characterization of economic growth. two consecutive quarters of 3% gdp gains. growth is described as moderate. if moderate remains the descriptor for growth, that will signal the fed is not necessarily buying into the 3% headline gains. if we look a little deeper beneath the surface, 3% gdp growth in q2 was a rebound from a weak first quarter. q3, they handle was due to some
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idiosyncrasies due to the hurricanes, the net exports sector and the inventory sector. i would live to be back to 3% gdp growth. i don't think we're there yet when we look out of the hood of a we have seen in the economy the last couple of quarters. -- beill maybe be has an hesitant. they keeping the focus on -- david: besides the advert. carl: is the commentary around inflation, which is even lower using the core pc deflator. and also before the national economists club, janet yellen recently expressed doubts about the stability of household inflation expectations and whether the fed's inflation credibility is starting to erode. julie: we have a visual illustration of what you are talking about, a chart you sent
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us on the bloomberg. it looks like the core pce, which is an orange. whichflation expectations have been steadily trending downward. carl: the fed is normalizing policy in an environment where inflation and inflation expectations are degrading. if they continue to hike, their credibility certainly will be at risk here. if you say the economy is growing 3% quarter in and quarter out, you should be confident numbers will bounce back. as we highlighted, maybe it is not really growing and a 3% pace just yet. david: despite the instagram video preview that we got last friday, reporting indicates we will see the fed chair tomorrow. what does that mean for the economy? carl: he is very much a product of the institution, as is chair yellen. this reflects continuity of a dovish lee inclined fed --
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dovishly inclined fed. this is contributed to a lack of wage pressures and inflation. i think a john taylor would've been more dismissive of that argument. heyou look at jay powell, will look along the lines of how janet yellen has conducted business at the fed. it is very much continuity. someone who will be inclined to trust the staff feedback at the fed. if you read the first half of the fed minutes, which a lot of people skip over, the staff forecast and staff commentary is in it. that has tended to a more dovish side than what we have necessarily gotten. david: chief u.s. economist joining us here in new york. our special coverage beginning in just a moment. we will have analysis and reaction. janice anderson, bill gross and
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black rock's chief jeffrey rosenberg coming up right now. tom keene and scarlet fu are waiting in the wings. julie: sign up for the balance of power newsletter at from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ scarlet: live from bloomberg world headquarters, this is the fed decides. ♪ scarlet: in just under five minutes the federal reserve will release its monetary policy statement. see you in december. the fed is certain to keep rates on hold today. no press conference, no projections will be upgraded or updated. it is unlikely this will tip the markets one way or the other. today's announcement comes 24 hours before chair yellen probably finds out if she is losing her job to current or jayer -- board member
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powell. how will the next central bank chief address and economy are growth looks to the gathering steam but inflation remains in hiding? by cohosted a and everything today is tom keene of bloomberg surveillance. let's get started with a data check. tom: a completely different fed. we have the announcement tomorrow. some wonderful guests to make you smarter about the transition we have got on monetary policy over the next number of months. let's do a data check. even on a fed daily do that. we have a wonderful lift to the market this morning. yield. the two-year 2.36%.en should be red, go back to that screen. there is too much important data on a fed day. the dollar is stronger. i wanted to get to that to be sure.
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let's move on with currency markets. it will be interesting to see select words. there is the headline. the spread flattening out three basis points. jeffrey rosenberg will give us wisdom on this. yen weaker with the dollar strengthening. gold up seven dollars. this is a different meeting, quiet meeting -- baloney. there is so much history to be made tomorrow. scarlet: this meeting, what we are looking at is we will get a reinforcement of expectations before a december rate increase. watchersding to fed that a rate hike will happen in december. what happens after that in 2018? the fed is looking for three rate increases in 2018. tom: what is so important is the guesstimate on gdp. alan blighter will join us
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later, bill gross and the 3:00 hour. someone who is extremely brave and took a lot of heat with a lowball gdp number when everyone was optimistic -- it did not happen. julia coronado with us for years, macro policy advisers. i got the name right? julia: micro policy perspective. tom: the backstory to me here is this hope for 3% gdp. carl made clear -- we got it from a number. when you adjust it is still a subpar economy? julia: that is above trend. we see the labor market continue to be strong. last quarter we saw a lot of building. a lot of noise from the hurricanes in the data.
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to the degree it was not as bad as we thought in q3, maybe he will not get as much snap back in q4. the federal watch the data unfold. the economy is humming along a little about trend. that is enough for them to keep going at the pace they planned. scarlet: to want to bring in jeff rosenberg, blackrock's chief strategist. we were talking about how this meeting will reinforce the idea there will be a december rate increase. how do they telegraph that when they don't say an increase might be appropriate at the next meeting? jeff: as we were talking about, is a bit of characterization that will not be very disruptive. it will basically be trying to get out of this meeting without changing any expectations, and they are already set for december. no big surprises in terms of expectations. scarlet: it will depend on words like moderate, modest, inventory. blackrock's she fixed income strategist and julia coronado.
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let's give you a data check before we get the fomc announcement. the dow coming off its highs from earlier. the two-year yield moving a bit higher, but that is the 10-year yield. mike? mike: nothing to see here. the fed stands pat. 1% to 1.25%.of no mention of the december meeting and what changes there are two the statements are minimal. economic growth remains solid despite the hurricanes, and on a clinic continues to fall. labor market distortions from the storms will soon fade, as will distortions to inflation, which is soft according to fed officials. they still maintain able rise to their 2% target over the medium-term. nothing new except for one name


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