tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 1, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST
vonnie quinn. this is the "european close" on bloomberg markets. mark: here are the top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and around the world. the one-day rebound stocks proved to be short lived is in the tech sector spreading ahead of major earnings out today. president trump heads to west virginia for a republican strategy meeting. controversies swells over the potential release of a secret f.b.i. memo. chief executive talks to bloomberg about saying u.s. tax cuts are good for the entire global economy. what's happening to european stocks. we're down. stocks falling for the fourth day after jumping 1.6% in january. biggest losing run since
november, the 15th. these currencies rising against the dollar. we're seeing bond yields in the previousry countries declining. the german 10-year yield highest level since september of 2015. commodities and c.d.s. is your final two columns. big day out of the u.k. today, manufacturing expanding. input prices marked acceleration. i.h.s. markets, p.m.i. fell to 55.3 last month versus 56.2 in december. 56.5 was the estimate. the survey shows that growth in new orders eased to the lowest in june. cost pressure also intensified. purchase prices gaining at the fastest pace despite the drop in the headline index, it does remain well above the long-term average of 51.7. of course 55 is well above the line separating acceleration from contraction.
2018 forecast missing analyst estimates today. cited the need to invest in new 5-d technology ahead of expected orders from phone companies. those networks, of course, promising faster data speeds, everything from cars, traffic lights to refrigerators to be more connected. this strategy -- and this is why the shares are rising -- should yield earnings in 2020, surpassing current predictions. the stock, by the way, has lost nearly half its values in the last two years. making up some of the losses today, rising by 12.8%. let's finish with the financial chief, chairman stepping aside as the world's biggest maker of diabetes medicine. products facing competition and price pressure in the u.s. chief executive who faced head winds including lower prices in the u.s., rising te competition
since he took over the reins a year ago. he's turning to new diabetes and obesity medicine to spur growth. to shore up a business focusing on blood disorders. one was trumped by a higher bid this week from santa fe so that takeover wasn't successful. the shares today by by 7.3%. 90 minutes, how is looking at? >> we are stalled here in the u.s., mark. at least when it comes to major averages. the blog points out it's the tightest trading range thus far. after a couple days, several days of bigger swings coming back to stock trading. so now that trading range shrinking as stocks show little change. look at the amex. we have telecom and tech really keeping things afloat, at least from falling more. on the downside utilities, materials and real estate are
falling the most as we continue to see elevated bond yields. on the telecom side we had earnings from at&t. that company predicting a big boost to cash flow as a result of the tax changes. in addition to that, the company reporting an unexpected gain in its wireless subscribers. at&t, those shares are trading higher. we have a look at at&t. time warner, of course, its target, we should get some sort of department of justice decision. remember they have blocked to stop the deal but we could get a court decision in march. time warner shares are higher after that. subscription revenue rose on turner and on hbo. so at&t rising more than 4.5%. i mentioned utilities the worst performing group. natural gas lower than 4%. it's the third straight decline we have seen in gas. most of the regulated utilities will make some sort of margin over so it's going down, not
necessarily good news for some of the utilities. that combined with rates and elevated level is pushing them down. finally, the automakers out with their january u.s. sales and we got some disappointments here. ford sales down more than 6%, a bigger decline than estimated. g.m. reporting a gain. that's smaller than estimated of 1.3%. and fiat chrysler is down 13%. the estimate was for a drop of 10%. mark. mark: julie, thank you. as u.k. prime minister teresa may tries to sell the brexit to china, her secretary is slamming the forecast on believing the e.u. here's what davis said earlier in the house of commons. >> every institution that's tried it has failed. every -- every forecast, every forecast has been made about postreferendum has been wrong. mark: join us is ian
shepherdson. joining us from new castle in the u.k. maybe some courses of the u.k. to forecast the effects of brexit on the economy, what do you think? ian: well, it's certainly true that forecast is in immediate catastrophe was wrong, no doubt about that. it's dangerous to think because one forecast is wrong all future forecasts will be wrong. that's a trap davis and some of into exiteers are falling it. we didn't know the exact impact of the referendum. it might be easier to work out what the big picture will be if the u.k. doesn't manage to sign a bunch of trade deals with non-e.u. countries very quickly and that's the most likely outcome. these things take a very long time. if we leave the world's biggest trading block and don't get a bunch of deals with other big
countries quickly we are going to suffer. i can't see any way around it. mark: in the subject of forecasting, if you look at the markets, the expectations now are that the bank of england will maybe create sooner than what was believed to be the case, at least a month ago. some investment banks are bringing forward their u.k. rate hike expectation as well. are you in the wake of recent macroeconomic data? ian: well, the growth data for the end of the year were a little bit better than expected. if that was the only thing happening then, yes, we would probably look for the next hike to come sooner. but, i think it's important to appreciate the bank is very concerned, very keen to see what will happen to inflation and specifically how quickly it comes down this year. i think there is a good chance it will come down faster than they think. the bank underestimated to the extent to the drop in sterling would raise inflation.
i think it's now a bit too cautious on the speed with which it will come down. hopefully that rapid disinflation we will see over thes first half of the year will allow them to push back that rate hike a little bit further. i don't really think there's any prissing need for them to raise -- pressing need for them to raise rates. vonnie: what about guilt? we have seen quite a bit of it ian: the u.k. government had a long-term borrowing problem, as we know, and the struggles to bring borrowing down in the wake of the crash has been very long and very painful. but the guild market is enthralled to what's happening in the u.s. where we have seen the substantial rise in yields over the last couple months. that's got further to go. unfortunately the guild market and other bond markets will be dragged higher in its wake. there will be a significant increase in funding cuts for the u.k. against the still intractable problem of getting the budget deffs down.
that's probably a problem of weak growth. if you don't grow very fast and that period can be extended by the brexit mess, then you are going to struggle for revenues. and cutting spending, as britain has demonstrated in the last few years, isn't enough. vonnie: so we have the growth in the united states, apparently, and it's only going to get more growthful but i'm wondering about the united states deficit and it getting blown out? e will have to get back to ian shepherdson from pantheon. we just lost him. we will get back to him in a little bit. here's courtney. courtney: president trump is calling out democrats over daca. the program that keeps young undocumented immigrants from being deported. the president said that democrats resist blame, complain and obstruct and do nothing. he's giving congress until march 5 to fix daca. the number of americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last
week. initial jobless claims were down 100,000 to 235,000. it's a sign of another major shift in the global oil markets. for the first time in more than four decades, u.s. oil production has gone above 10 million barrels a day. new production techniques have opened up billions of barrels in oil and shale rock formations and that's turned the u.s. into an exporter. india has hit apple and others with higher tariffs. import duties will rise from 15% to 20% and that may hurt apple's ability to compete in the world's fastest growing smartphone market. apple has been negotiating with india for lower tariffs on certain components. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. vonnie: courtney, thank you. going to let you know about a stock.
mark: live from london i'm mark bartan with the european close in a matter of minutes away. vonnie: and in new york i'm vonnie quinn. president trump is set to address house and senate republicans in the next hour as they plan out their strategy for 2018 at a retreat in west virginia. meantime, democrats are now charging the house republicans secretly altered materially a
memo concerning how the f.b.i. investigated russian meddling in the presidential election. joining us now is kevin, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. he's coming to us from the g.o.p. retreat in west virginia. of course in the background is that awful accident which caused the fatality yesterday. kevin, i know it made it a difficult start, but how are the strategy sessions coming along? are you hearing anything yet? kevin: well, the main dominant talk of conversation is will he or won't he? that of course being president trump with regards to the release of this nunes memo. that's dominated the talks from lawmakers in the background -- whoops. it's dominated the talk of the conversations here in white sulphur springs. i want to bring up a quote from adam schiff. vonnie: kevin, i think that was the memo coming your way. you lost out on an exclusive. kevin: i know.
the representative adam schiff saying, if the majority remains intent on releasing its documents to the public despite repeated warnings from the d.o.j. and f.b.i., it must hold a new vote to release to the public its modification of the document. now republicans are pushing back on that. take a listen to what representative mark meadows, chairman of the freedom caucus, told me earlier this morning. mr. meadows: that's an adam schiff misdirection there. i talked to chairman nunes last night. i can tell you from that standpoint any changes were not factual and would have been minor. kevin: why? mr. meadows: in trying to appease adam schiff and the f.b.i. and so i'm ok with releasing the original memo if that's a deterrent. kevin: so republicans saying now just release all versions of this memo. it's unclear whether or not
president trump will ultimately decide to do that. just within the past half-hour senior administration officials telling reporters they believe congress has the jurisdiction about whether or not to release that memo. mark: big topic there, kevin, is infrastructure. how can the g.o.p. get the democrats on board? kevin: well, one of the breakout sessions, a key breakout session, mark, is on infrastructure, a plan that the president didn't really go into detail with during his state of the union address, calling for about $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending. how are they going to pay for it, that's what several lawmakers have said at this retreat. now, a couple of ways is, number one, public-private partnerships, luring in private investments. secondly, perhaps through repatriated funds by lowering of the corporate tax rates. thirdly, by lowering the time it takes in order to get a permit for these types of projects. now, later on in my interview
with chairman meadows, he suggested that the $200 billion worth of government funding might be a difficult political pill for fiscal conservatives to swallow but they could potentially be on board if other spending cuts are on the table. mark: kevin, it's a week to go until current funding runs out. how are we progressing to a deal towards avoiding another shutdown? kevin: no republican that spoke today, whether it be congressman meadows or mcmorris rogers or senator thune, all saying they do not anticipate they will be headed to a government shutdown. on the flip side of that, i will be quite frank here, i spoke to some aides to fiscal conservatives who are confused on the official schedule of this retreat, there does not appear to be a specific time allocated to addressing like this february 8 deadline of a government shutdown. vonnie: let's get back to the memo for a second, kevin.
we're -- we were talking about partisanship. with the state of the union, with the retreats, with the idea we moved on from the type of legislation that was extremely nonpartisan, there was potential there for some bipartisanship. has this gone by the wayside with this memo? kevin: well, i think there is no question this has become a key partisan issue with regards to the memo which democrats, led, of course, by adam schiff, the top democrat on the special select intelligence committee in the house of representatives, really saying there were modifications used by representative -- chairman nunes on this front. now, other folks are saying they were just gra matcal on that flip side. democrats making the case that no institution such as the f.b.i. should have to do that. it remains to be seen on the timing at all the release of this memo is going to come. vonnie: what are people saying about the president's, you know, mood -- and i hate to use
that mood these days -- he's been increasingly frustrated. at some point if the memo isn't released, does that blow? kevin: well, president trump is en route, vonny right now to the republican retreat. he will address lawmakers. he has been joined by top administration officials, including earlier this morning secretary of state rex tillerson, secretary of defense mattis addressed lawmakers on the national security front. we had a congressman come out and talk to us after that meeting and he told us that there was the memo did not come up in that official capacity. much of the conversation about the memo have been around these meetings. but there hasn't been an official one. but to be quite blunt, every republican that i have spoken with are urging the release of this memo. vonnie: all right. our thanks to kevin cirilli, bloomberg's chief white house correspondent in west virginia t the g.o.p. conference.
vonnie: live from new york i'm vonnie quinn. mark: and live from london i'm mark barton with "european close." 7 1/2 minutes. matt miller spoke with of novo officer nordisk. >> i'm optimistic about 2018. we have guided the market that will see a 2% to 5% growth in top line and 1% to 2% in bottom line. the key thing that came out in our release is we have seen significant head wind for the u.s. dollar taking our top line down by 7% and profit by 10%.
if the current exchange rates continue. so that's -- the current curnsy is key for me right now. matt: how do you expect that to pan out this year? i mean, do you think the currency is going to keep -- is going to continue being a problem in 2018? what do you expect from the dollar? lars: i wish i knew. i can't comment on the development. we have strong momentum in our business right now. we see a continued uptick, doubled in market share in 2017. and we are seeing cardiovascular safety is surely growing in the u.s. and we are launching our -- in the u.s. market come this monday. so we have a lot of -- a lot going for us in the diabetes space. so that's what we are focusing on. we have not changed. matt: all right.
so if you take out the effective currencies, you have a tail wind in the u.s. with the tax reform. can you quantify the effect of the tax bill on novo nordisk's business? lars: yeah, we expect we will have a lowering of our effective tax rate by 1 1/2 percentage points. effective tax rate of 21% in the u.s. we are already investing in the u.s. we are building a $2 billion plant in north carolina. so we see a strong opportunity in the u.s. and we are investing also now based on a lower tax rate. matt: so what else do you see coming out of the u.s.? president trump has made a lot of noise about prescription drug prices. are you concerned that that could be a head wind for you? lars: i think the rhetoric from trump in his state of the nation speech is similar to what we heard a year ago so i don't see a lot of change
there. i do think there is a need for some reform of the u.s. headquarter system and in particular some of those patients that are faced with high deductible plans ending up paying less prices. we are taking some initiatives but we are looking to take more to take care of those patients getting access to the rebates that we are already paying. mark: bloomberg matt miller eaking with novo nordisk c.e.o. vonnie: a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. tesla will test whether the renewable products have mainstream appeal. they have told bloomberg they are having a solar division at home depot. it will be at 800 home depot locations. it was a rough january for
detroit's big three. general motors' deliveries increased but still missed estimates. meanwhile, toyota sales rose nearly 17%, almost twice what analysts forecasted. that's your latest bloomberg business flash. mark: a look at european markets. we are down for the fourth consecutive day today. we were up earlier but the ftse .6%. the dax down 1.5%. c.a.c. .6% down. ♪
drifted lower in the afternoon session and will close at 6/10 of 1%. it comes to an increase of 1.6% in january, the strongest month since october. at itsman ten-year highest since september of 2015. earnings is the recent stocks are falling today. , risingg earnings today surging earnings in mexico. yesterday reporting a jump in earnings, and the brazil unit helping post rising profit under chairwoman since she took over. has been turning into emerging markets. becoming the biggest contributor to profit, but shares 1.7% lower
-- mirroring the market trend. they opened lower, but says it is on track to meet higher profitability goals in the wake of unsolicited takeover approach win as it struggled to reach prices. the three-month from december reported that it beat analysts estimates from emerging markets. the results close out a tumultuous year for the company. they sold its struggling margarine brand 10 equity firm and it lifted its forecast of cost savings to better compete with rival. big moving of the stocks today, shares down by an 8%.n sent --
the result will be the creation of a company offering fixed and mobile telecommunications as well as broadband content, tv stations, and studios. we are seeing a little bit of a bounce for the yen. the yen is weakening a little bit after spending all that time in the 108 handle, creeping higher following the statements of a little bit of a selloff. there's anticipation of lots more to come. vix is still above 13. about the vix earlier and how important that was, and oil recovering as well.
it's have a quick look at world equity indices. i have blown up latin america -- there, not literally indices across latin america are bouncing back after a difficult time. venezuela the outlier as it typically is. let's take a look at first world news. twist to the story of a memo of how fbi investigated russian meddling in the presidential election. democrats charged that republicans altered the memo and never told him. the white house is reviewing the documents to determine if they will be released. the fbi has said the memo is inaccurate. in virginia investigators say they will spend several days investigating the site of a crash involving a truck and the
train carried members of congress. one person in the truck was killed. a congressman was briefly hospitalized for a concussion. a european manufacturing group is on one of the fastest paces on record. the firm is facing more and itonary pressure -- was partially due to higher energy costs. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: thank you very much indeed. year,a turbulent rejecting an acquisition and struggling product lines -- spoke with bloomberg today in london. that we havesee had a strong volume component
but our pricing is decent for the year. we think going forward for next year we probably will see our growth behalf pricing and have volume. >> will margin gains be in the first half or second half? >> more towards the second half and rule spend on these new initiatives which will mean facing of the year will be skewed towards the second half. what you have seen in 2017 is a high quality of earnings growth. profit margins are up 40 basis again it results in record cash flows of 5.4 billion, that is a new record for the company and significantly ahead of our own estimates. >> it has been a year since you promised increased profit shares for investors -- >> since my tenure when it
started, every year we have increased our top line growth and we have increased our bottom line, so it is every year we are actually giving increased profits to our shareholders. nothing has changed their. we you see is a strong basis points -- that really reflects the current tenuous work we have done -- the continuous work we have done at the company and our folly of transformations. alone --st two years portfolio transformations. to see itrting reflected in our numbers. and weinue to look announced an ice cream acquisition in romania, and acquisitions -- these are acquisitions that
appeal to millennials and are in the healthy natural segment for the future and will continue to look at some of these opportunities. >> are their segments that are not represented well enough? there is an enormous space of change, not only driven by technology or -- but consumers where you see millennials going rapidly towards natural, organic, i/o, so we will continue to accelerate changes theire. vonnie: amazon, apple, and alphabet -- what are investors saying? this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: life from london, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. mark: holding elections in march, one party expected to see party primehe minister candidate spoke to bloomberg in london meeting with investors and analysts to discuss how now is the ideal time for italy to win concessions from the eu. >> we believe in this historic moment eu has countries of governance that is weaker so italy can get more results. germany hasn't yet formed a government and france traditional parties have been reduced to a minimum, and spain and portugal have a minority government. given that, italy can bring results home. kevin, what else did he
have to say, what other news did he break? he is trying to show that he can work with business, so he made an important proposal and said he would make sure that the entire banks are able to deal with their mountain of bad loans. this is important for the continued progress of the italian economy. beef -- heolitical is off the campaign trail for a little bit. what is going on? the italian papers say there is a mystery and that. there is nothing wrong with his health and he is taking a few days off and we'll be back on the campaign trail on monday and he says that age 81, he is in great shape. vonnie: what are the polls
saying right now? they are giving five-star movement about 28% of the vote -- the center-right coalition what get 39%, and the ruling democratic party would get 22%. so do the math, that means no party would have enough votes to form a government on its own. vonnie: how our markets taking this? is there even more concerned than there is now? kevin: right now i think the markets are concerned and we are seeing notes from analyst saying the markets are concerned especially when they hear about the possibility of some sort of five-star movement government and has investors are concerned. mark: given the five-star movement has weighed back from -- does of a referendum
that make investors slightly less nervous? kevin: perhaps a little less nervous, but remember the five-star movement is a populist party and are making a lot of promises all over the place. investors and business people are beginning to wonder who will pay for those different programs and promises. what about the future -- a year or so ago, does it seem like his days are done now? it does seemly, that he is in serious difficulty if he wants to regain the premier position. his replacement is extremely popular in italy. he has been overseeing an economic pickup of sorts, 13 quarters of solid growth and unemployment rate that has gone
down quite a bit, so there is question if a tie in voters want to see his fate as prime minister. thanksevin, great job, for joining us. vonnie: it is time for the stock of the hour. we are looking at ralph lauren. abigail doolittle joins us with details. forh lauren in the news olympic costumes, but a disappointing quarter. this retailer did less well stands out. they beat earnings and sales estimates, but work disappointment came -- we hopped into the bloomberg, we see that trend because cell stores for this company has been down since their fiscal fourth-quarter in 2014.
ago fory equating years the company, and there has been hope of a turnaround and come back for the new ceo who was appointed last may. the idea that he could drive growth, a bit of their strategy has been to be more selective as to where they sell, so they are cutting distribution by 25%, but it seems less product on the market has also dragged on sales. vonnie: how do they get the company back? abigail: they need take get it together fashion wise and get the consumer that they lost years ago. ralph lauren was the preppy brand, but now there's all sorts of product, so there is a thought they have to reconnect with consumers. relative to sales growth, that see how bad it is. he has his job could out for him. see quarter after quarter of
a decline, and the last quarter moving in the right direction, but nonetheless there is hope that they will get the job done. butar it is not happening, perhaps the big change is really going to take more time than some investors that it would. vonnie: abigail, thank you for that. mark: time for the business flash. by 33% ofibaba will its payment company and it will clear the way -- no cash is changing hands. shares will obtain new for intellectual property rights. the total, more than $300 million last year. united parcel service has put life into the 747, the biggest package service delivery has ordered 14 more jumbo jets.
that means boeing will be making planes until 2020. boeing is going to keep the assembly line crew open until next year. report that google parent out the back is talking about building a large technology hub in saudi arabia. according to the wall street journal, part of it will help build data centers. they want more tech expertise in the country. flash. your business coming up, the battle of the charts. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: this is the european close. international exuberance is saying investors are out of it again, and allen's greenspan spoke with bloomberg and said he sees bubbles of stocks and bonds. >> i think there are two bubbles, a stock market and buying mobile. i think in the end of the day, the bond market bubble will be the critical issue. for the short-term it is not too bad, but we are working towards a major increase in long-term interest rates. impacts a very important on the whole short-term economy. you don't believe in the proclamation that a bear market has begun in bonds?
this move towards 3%, we are not there obviously, but if it gets there, can it sustain itself? >> what is behind the bubble? essentially, we are beginning to run at a ever larger government deficit. we are talking about deficits going to a trillion dollars. that has been rising debt has been -- rising. there going to run through peaks of where we were during -- which is extraordinarily high. i think we are not paying enough attention to that. mark: alan greenspan speaking to bloomberg's tom keene at scarlet fu. battle of the charts
where we look at the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. the feature at the bottom of the screen, and kicking things off is christine. >> i am looking at goldman sachs because of its staggering forecast -- in six months moving to $80 per barrel. that is a 50% gain from current levels and the reason they cite a stronger demand reflected stronger growth in emerging economies. out,r oil reporter points that is not a bullish call on the oil market, it is also a bullish call on the global economy. my chart shows exactly the same. --looking at the positions and you notice the white line here towards the end of last year, that has picked up considerably. it is near record levels right now. at the same time, the
expectations of growth in emerging markets has picked up. together they have risen the relationship between these 2 -- you can see a correlation chart is that the strongest level in the over two years. if we see goldman's prediction picks uprough, and it to $80 per barrel, and the emerging market growth will follow soon. make sure you download this #btv and check it out at g 1734. mark: when research out of london forecasting a hundred dollars through the end of next year. vonnie, that is a great chart. vonnie: mine is pretty all right as well. forward, five-year saying that inflation is low, and we know it is according to some of the standards that we use.
however, if we look at what markets are saying, it is creeping up -- pushing through this very important to .2% line -- 2. line, and stacks of market participants are concerned, is it too late or will inflation have gone and done a bit of a runner? the reason i picked this chart is because i like the title point break -- one of my favorite movies with patrick swayze and ken reeves. mark: did you see the remake, vonnie? vonnie: no, couldn't bring myself to it. mark: awful movie. vonnie: but, netflix is performing phenomenally, and it
is absolutely massive an interesting chart because netflix is now bigger than cbs. it is even bigger than bright house -- i didn't study it as much -- mark: money is giving to charts for the price of one. ticks did netflix, it all. do netflix, courage of conviction, and you walk away with a title. the moral of the story is to be quiet when i have nothing to say. [laughter] mark: that victory is for point break. fantastic. to charts -- three if we include netflix. andng up, president trump
his retreat to west virginia -- and a look at european stocks today. day -- stocks down for a fourth consecutive day, that is the worst since november of last year. it was a gaining month for have a great pain of the currency board. as we come to an end to the european close. belowly softer, but well -- well above i should say the 10 year average. ♪
and will send it back to congress tomorrow. white house spokesperson says as of now the house will be responsible for releasing the memo because it is a legislative document and will not say whether the white house will redact any parts of it. british prime minister theresa may has a reopened the brexit fight over it you citizens and has promised to fight attempts until 2020, until after 2021. to says the eu should stick the original cutoff date of march of 2019. an agency possessing arabs for money after the trump administration cut tens of millions of dollars of aid. the yuan agency spoke to an arab league meeting in cairo today, calling the u.s. cut the most severe crisis in the agency's history. historically the united states has been the industries largest owner.
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