tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg February 4, 2018 11:00pm-12:00am EST
sentence. this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." i'm yousef gamal el-din in dubai. a lot of the reaction we are seeing in the asian session is still a little bit in response to what we saw on friday. jump into the bloomberg with me and let's take a look at the global market map. some of the japanese stocks coming under german this pressure. the nikkei down 2.5%. electronics makers the biggest drag. the asia-pacific index is on course for its biggest drop in almost 14 months. that is some context for you there. the foreign exchange space downg you got the chinese
--%, also the brazilian r the brazilian riyal. also some readjustments on the trade wti down over 1%. i want to show you what is happening with the bloomberg dollar index that is key to this conversation. a little bit of a downside as we speak. dollar-yen wanes. we see some of the capital flowing into that down 2/5 of 1%. two blips.r up by u.s. equity futures, where are we at? down almost 2/5 of 1%. let's check in on some of the
biggest headlines around the world with debra mao. debra: two people have been killed and one and 100 injured after an amtrak train collision in south carolina. it was traveling from you new , amtrak third deadly collision in as many months. inquiries have been opened the incident. the u.k. government says theresa has ruled out staying in the eu customs union after brexit. that was the key to hardliners who had plans to topple the prime minister. the majority of british businesses have applied to stay within the customs union. it is predicted the bank of england will raise its benchmark rate twice this year, expected to keep rates on hold to their u.k. growth and inflation forecast this week. they see a 25 basis point hike
in may and another in november. dennis allen says u.s. stocks and commercial real estate prices are high, but stopped short of saying they are in a yellen says u.s. stocks and commercial real estate prices are high, but stopped short of saying they are in a bubble. i don't want to say too high, but i do want to say hi. praise earnings ratios are near the high end of their ranges. if you look at commercial real estate, prices there are quite high relative to risk. is that a bubble, or is it too high? it is very hard to tell. is this a source of some concern that asset valuations are so high?
debra: yellen's successor is yet to be sworn in. 22 north korean athletes will compete at the winter games. lee is back jay y. in court appealing his five-year prison sentence. prosecutors are appealing for a longer-term. bars for 12e behind years, arguing that would establish the rule of law and investigations into link between government and business. a final appeal to the supreme court may follow. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg. yousef: let's get back to our top story. it has been a grim morning for asian markets, equities extending their biggest seller
for global stocks in two years, putting the asia-pacific index on course for its biggest drop in almost 14 months. but get to our market strategist mark cranfield. just a couple of weeks ago, even less than that, we had all our movers and shakers in davos raving about global economic growth and profits. should i be worried that this is nothing more than a little bit of a correction? at this stage it does look like a correction similar to the one we had in november last year, from which the markets rebounded quite quickly. if there is a distinguishing feature this time around, treasury yields are a bit higher and they were this time around. we do have a new fed chairman coming into place today, so there are a couple new factors in place. there are a couple more things to worry about, but at this stage the movements we have seen in asia today are pretty much in line with those we have seen during previous periods, so
nothing too extreme yet. that is not to say there is not some anxiety out there, especially with the chinese new year coming up just next week. that is a period when the markets are closed in china. but at the moment it is not really an extreme case as yet, yousef. yousef: the commodities space is up for a serious test this week off the back of those rising bond yields and the self -- and the selloff we are seeing in equity markets. what is the weakest link in the chain? certainly people are looking at crude oil because it is that a tremendous rally, especially since the second half of last year. if you look at future pricing the way that it is, it is giving encouragement to some of the people on the ground to hedge their forward production, and that is beginning to show in the data so far. on one side you have speculators who are quite long of oil, and
producers are actually hedging their positions. on the long-term basis it is often the people closer to the action in the real oil world who are better at predicting the future movements. at this stage oil is looking like one of the more vulnerable asset classes. if things get worse in equity space, this could spell over, and if it happens there it could spread to other commodities as well. there's a number of dominoes which could fall here if things really take a turn for the worst. in the position of the u.s. dollar so far has been fairly benign, but if dollar-yen starts falling that would also feed into other commodity things as well. there's a number of things which could feed into one another. yousef: let's talk about a different asset class, cryptocurrencies. part of the initial euphoria throughout last year was that it was akin to gold. a safe haven, a hedge. under has come german this pressure, dipping
below $800 in the past few hours -- under tremendous pressure, dipping below $800 in the past few hours. reporter: it has been extremely volatile. north korea apparently has hacked into south korean cryptocurrency exchange. it just shows how vulnerable anybody is plays with cryptocurrencies. it is not just that the valuation could be moved by events within the asset class. a could also be vulnerable to people actually stealing the cryptocurrency in the first place. it is so many factors, plus south korea is one of the countries that has been clamping down on the transactions as well. there's other countries following that lead as well. there's just so many things waiting on the decision-making as to whether you should be involved at all. it certainly doesn't sound like a safe haven to me. when you get these negative headlines coming about cryptos being stolen, it just brings out the anxiety of those playing in it. it could get even worse before it gets better here. yousef: thank you very much for stopping by.
that is bloomberg market strategist mark cranfield. let's bring in the head of asian trading strategy at citigroup global markets. he joins us live out of hong kong. a want to get your input as to how deep of a correction we are going to see with some of these markets. we had a conversation a few weeks back. you said there were be a catalyst for correction, and that it would be healthy. now that it seems to be happening, how long is it going to last? how deep a correction are going to see? guest: good morning. i think first of all the markets this morning in asia are not panicking at all. we are not seeing any systematic liquidation. fund managers i have been speaking to are indicating that buy intoare looking to the dip. we are not seeing a rise of volatility over what has been predicted in the market.
bond yields are pretty good to selloff a little bit. we are watching the peripheral markets, to see the particular impact from them. overall i think we are looking at somewhere near the start of yearlevel to -- start of level to look at selling positions at that level. at the moment it seems that most fund managers are looking to buy into the dip. u.s. equity futures get down to around 2700, that is probably the big battleground at which the bulls and bears will really have to decide. earnings upgrades are continuing at a very significant level, so that is providing some underpinning for this market here. theef: we put up on a chart latest selloff. u.s. stocks and treasuries suffering their worst selloff since at least 2009.
you are telling clients to be cautious. you are telling them, watch out for those rising 10 year yields because they will have an impact on a lot of corporates and sovereigns in asia. guest: yes. i think what has happened is the market has gone parabolic. as we have seen in things like bitcoin and many other bubbles we have seen over the past few decades, if not centuries, markets don't go parabolic forever. i think that is what we started off our peace with a few weeks ago, arguing that markets don't go parabolic forever. this correction is not really that much of a surprise. we think the level from where it has corrected is not really where we had expected it from, so the timing was probably a week early. the level was probably 3% below where we expected it from. i'm not completely convinced that this is the real place from where it is supposed to start.
saying that, with the rise in bond yields, that is giving people cause for concern. what we are actually arguing is that at the short end of the curve it may actually be time to thosecovering some of shorts, and even for the bond market to be looking for an entry-level not just yet, but around 3%, that will be quite an attractive opportunity. if you look at the chart of 10 year bond yields, that is going parabolic as well. we don't expect it to persist either. 3% we could be looking for, or a 50 point loss in bond yields. briefly tell me what your top conviction call is, and whether that has changed at all with the recent selloff in global stocks and bonds. think it is going to be
pretty much more of the same. we think there may be one final leg higher up in the market. at that point it may be that equity investors going through the earnings will want to hedge their portfolio or readjust given how much earnings projections are being revised higher, so i think it is still very much the case that investors need to be fairly tactical at the moment. we are probably a bit more cautious on credit markets. we are watching the high-yield market in particular. emerging markets as well really depend on the direction of the dollar, and 10 year treasuries are going to be probably the big call of the year. we do think there may be a very significant buying opportunity in 10 year yields once we get to around 3%. yousef: we still want to flesh
exchange, the lowest level since november 2016. saudi stocks down 6/10 of 1%. qatar has rallied quite a bit into 2018. all numbers of the exchange down , overall loss of 2.7%. israel as well joining the big movers, the biggest move in quite some time for the israeli exchange. let's get you up to speed with the latest business flash headlines, starting with the story of saudi arabia. the state oil company aramco has kept pricing to asia the same for the second state month. the first time since 2007 at prices have stayed the same for back-to-back months, aramco had previously arranged prices for five straight months. the ceo of dubai holding has left the firm less than a year after taking the helm of the investment company owned by the emirates ruler. he will be replaced by the current cfo. dubai holding, which owns dubai
properties group and a hotel operator, is one of the main holding companies and has about $35 billion in assets. apple music is adding u.s. subscribers faster than spotify according to "the wall street journal." it is expanding at about 5% a month compared to spotify's 2%. if that continues, apple music will take the lead in the united states in the next few months. globally spotify is still the big player with 70 million users. compare that with apples 36 million. that was your bloomberg business flash. let's get back to some of the key themes investors should be watching out for this week. later today starting off with mario draghi, presented the ecb annual report to european parliament. will also be getting some data for the euro area and united kingdom. on thursday we have the bank of england and the nbc expected to keep rates on hold, but upgrade
their growth and inflation forecasts. and we've got u.s. government funding, questions around that. that will run out again that day without congressional action. lawmakers are likely to pass a stopgap spending will to prevent another -- spending bill to prevent another government shutdown. south african leader jacob zuma will get his address. the bond market is whispering already that they are preparing for the scenario requiring higher yields. are we going to get a bit of a different outcome this time, or is this going to be rolling over the dice as it has been in the last few years? guest: markets are prepared for a rollover. the debt ceiling debate comes up the following week, and that is
going to be a lot less tractable in the immediate short-term. i think what that will do is actually put more pressure at the short end of the curve then perhaps the long end, but certainly that is an event we are going to be watching out for in a couple of weeks time. yousef: how do you expect other navigateanks to volatile environments? do you expect the bank of england to come out with an updated forecast, or are they going to wait until conditions improve globally to make an announcement like that? guest: i think the bank of england will probably come out with an upgrade both on growth and inflation expectations. there's been a lot of debate in the u k over the past few weeks about some of the treasury reports that have been coming -- and some debate over the
i think more significant will be from the bank of japan and the european central bank. last week we told buying 10 years at 10 basis point yield arguably the best trade in markets globally. i think we continue to stand by that. i think the bank of japan is still committed to that, and into this selloff wobble that markets are having, i think they will be dividing market liquidity -- providing market liquidity. the ecb have made it very clear they're are going to continue with asset personages -- asset purchases. probably a little worried by the strength in the euro, and really euro-dollar is one of the prime factors that is really behind
the rally in risk assets as well. an interesting dynamic where the european central bank once the euro a little weaker perhaps, but equity markets and risk assets may actually not like that apart from perhaps in europe. yousef: exactly, so where does that leave your recommendations for broader emerging markets? we have a few risk events including the south african meeting later on in the week. what is on top of your radar specifically, and how does that translate into tangible action and tangible trades? guest: we think that the dollar is going to continue to weaken for the time being. i think the 2016 shanghai accord seems to be over. foreign-exchange implied volatility seems to be a bit too cheap from the perspective we are looking at it from. , though,that investors should be preparing for some
form of correction a little bit later this month. that could be as a result of a snapback in the dollar. like i said earlier on, it's sort of is very much a tactical trading market. this dip we think is likely to be bought into. perhaps markets go into fresh what, and then after that we think will happen is that a correction larger than the one we are seeing now could actually emerge later on this month. some of that may actually come from china, and some of the data may look a bit softer later this month. yousef: thank you very much for your time this morning to my joining us live. what we areross to getting live from philadelphia, where fans are celebrating their team's thrilling super bowl victory over the new england patriots.
the eagles held off the favorites to claim a 41-33 victory in a game that shattered super bowl records. philadelphia's first champion of the super bowl era -- championship of the super bowl era. quite a busy party, looks like. also turning to another big story, and asia the air to the samsung fortune is back in courts, seeking a reduction to his five-year prison term. here is the critical element. jay y. lee was sentenced for brightening -- for bribing his way into control of the country's biggest company. for more on this country, are north asia correspondent stephen engle joins us live. what exactly are we looking ahead to in terms of a potential breakthrough? expecting aare decision from the high court, which is rolling on the appellate body that reviewed this case.
as you rightly said, both sides are appealing that five-year sentence for corruption. the prosecution must 12 years, and lee doesn't want any, obviously. just a few minutes ago down the street from here, kitty corner from this court building behind me where the high court is also housed, we had a bit of a ee.test against jay y. l about 35 protesters chanting was megaphones and banners, saying jay y. lee needs heavy punishment. five-year is not enough. clear samsung's corruption. on the other side of the street, one singular woman shouting back is not that jay y. lee guilty and president park
geun-hye is absolutely not guilty. this whole samsung saga help to drag down and these run the who isnt park geun-hye, also awaiting trial and has been detained since march. yousef: what are some of the other possible outcomes today? of course, the sentence could be upheld. it could be lessened. it could be extended to that 12 years. the least likely scenario, according to legal experts, is that the sentencing could be thrown out. wille top of the hour we get that decision from the high court behind me. yousef: stephen, thank you very much for making it to the program. that is bloomberg's north asia correspondent live from seoul. how will the prospect of a fed rate hike and the rebound in oil prices affect regional risk appetite? we will break it down have what
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yousef: it is 11:30 p.m. in downtown new york. riyadh.e shot of crude oil down a little over 1%. the bloomberg dollar index has gone to a little bit weak getting. we call that down a six whiskers on the bloomberg dollar index. of stability at first word headlines from around the world -- let's take a look at first word headlines from around the world with debra mao. : three killed in more than
one hundred injured after amtrak train slammed into another train in south carolina, traveling from new york to miami. it is amtrak's third deadly collision in as many months. authorities have opened two degrees into the incident. theresa may has ruled out staying in the eu customs union after brexit. that was a key demand of a hardliners who are reported to have hatched a plot to topple the prime minister. it goes against the wishes of the majority of british businesses, who have called on the government to apply to stay in the customs union. the e y item club is predicting the bank of england will raise benchmark interest rates twice this year. they are expected to upgrade their u.k. growth and inflation forecasts this week. the item club season 25 point basis hike -- basis point hike in may and another in november. yellen, whoset
term ended on saturday, says the financial system is much better capitalized and the banking industry more resilient than they were before the financial crisis 10 years ago. i don't want to say too high, but i do want to say high. they are near the high-end of their historical ranges. if you look at commercial real estate, prices there are quite high compared to risk. is that a bubble or is it too high? it is very hard to tell, but it is a source of some concern that lsat -- that asset valuations are so high. yellen's successor jay powell will be sworn in as fed chief later. y. lee in court appealing his five-year prison sentence.
prosecutors want him behind bars for 12 years, arguing that would establish the rule of law in of linkstions between business and government. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg. the markets remain front and center today. over to sophie kamaruddin at the wall. sophie: we take a look at the losses across stocks and bonds, you have to wonder just how long this synchronized selloff will persist. will investors eventually turn to behave in space of treasuries? the yen gaining ground, rising for the first time against the while 2/10 of a percent, japanese stocks are falling the most since november 2016. in hong kong we are seeing shares falling as much as 2.7% as tencent leads across the
region. while global funds are heading for the exit when it comes to stocks in hong kong, mainland investors are buying in common net purchases topping $1 billion in the first part of this session today. that could indicate that hong kong shares market could perhaps be better buffered from the global than in the past. we are seeing philippine bonds under pressure as well. trial --e bank is in central's rateco decisions on deck. the rba policy decision is due out on tuesday ahead of all the bonds on pressure -- policy -- aussie bonds under pressure.
pressure,ude under extending losses after the u.s. count rose to a high. crude oil could be the next asset class due for a correction given this uptick. yousef: thank you very much for that. lifted some breaking lines hitting the bloomberg from the bank of japan. came under theoj spotlight after commentary made of hostile terms changes for reaching their inflation target. they are making it clear again the governor has no plans to make quantitative easing, halfway to achieving that 2% inflation target and underscoring the need to maintain quantitative easing. once again signaling to the market that from the boj standpoint, in terms of communication there is no change in guidance.
dollar-yen, still short of the 110 mark. let's talk about what is happening with this part of the world and crude oil prices. the rebound in the price action and a more expansionary public spending program in the gulf has been welcomed by many investors anxious about austerity hurting economic growth. now with higher bond yields and potential capital outflows amid howwaning risk appetite, will that hit companies in the middle east and africa? let's talk to the managing --ector for i want to get a bit of a sense from you about how you see the corporate sphere in a situation like this. guest: the challenge with sovereigns is they have such a tremendous impact on the domestic economies. in this region the sovereigns
are the drivers of macroeconomic growth. they can also put the brakes on very quickly. what we solid the drop in oil prices were reforms, cutbacks in fiscal spending, fiscal consolidation, and subsidies being removed. what that meant was there was the potential for a dramatic the escalation in growth. growth is a slower in the struckgns have i think the right balance for the most part. but still, growth is slower, and that does impact domestic economies. yousef: with the rising bond yields and potential capital outflows, in terms of redacting to 8 -- reacting to a developing , how does that put corporates in the gulf?
guest: the sovereigns are striking the right balance at this stage. most of the recovery in a sense domestically is being driven by higher oil prices enabling the fiscal consolidation steps to be tempered. there are concerns about what that means over the long run. there are certain sovereigns that are in a more vulnerable position than others. but i think the higher oil prices gives the sovereigns an opportunity to buy a bit more growthnd that is helping be a bit stronger than we were expecting 18 months ago. yousef: so what is the weakest link in the gulf, and bahrain and oman on the sovereign side? you are of corporates, saying it is a direct reflation of what they are doing on the sovereign level because they had a heavy hand in economic momentum. what are some standout transgressing -- standout trends you are seeing in gulf corporates right now? guest: real estate investment is
driven by what is happening macro economically in each of the countries. each of the countries have had slower growth. you seem corporates retrenching. certainly the oil price shock in the region caused a lot of companies to cut back. there has been some recovery, but that has meant that the real estate sectors have been under pressure. saudi has been taking measures on the residential front to try and increase growth. in dubai it is a detention go. -- it is a bit touch and go. prices are not recovering to the extent people would think they would, and we are seeing growth in the investment ebb and flow with perceptions of macroeconomic growth. ofsef: is that a function investor appetite abroad or more of a regional story? it has been a proxy for investment in the middle east. a lot of investors want to put
-- is that trend here to stay? is there more difficulty down the road for dubai, abu dhabi? --st: i think perception perception in this region really drives what happens for real estate. real estate in the region has been touch and go at times, and that affects prices and liquidity. on the commercial side there has questions about whether there will be the demand for what is being built in anticipation of the expo, but at this stage dubai has invested four growth so that the growth will come, but that is the real concern. yousef: thank you very much for
♪ yousef: "bloomberg markets: middle east this is -- this is "bloomberg markets: middle east ." the saudi arabia and lender topped -- arabian lender topped estimates. i look at your bank stock and how it has performed over the last six months, the best-performing bank in saudi arabia, of over 27%. how much better can it get in
the next few quarters from where you are standing? guest: think for having me on the program. this is not only the last six months. in fact, the bank has been the fastest-growing bank for the last five years. in 2017.chieved this regarding the financial numbers -- i am fairly optimistic about 2018 that this growth will continue. yousef: right. when you look at the change in policy from the government, they have moved away from the harsh austerity to more of an expansionary budget for the new year. there's more spending, more investment. was that don't to mean in terms of boosting your bottom line? what kind of lending growth are you looking at? guest: as you said, exactly.
is verynt spending central for economy growth. i am believing the budget for 2018 will have many opportunities for us. there are many projects going to well to finish those megaprojects that started a few years ago. yousef: give me a sense of what the impact could be from the ongoing selloff we are seeing in global equities and bonds, especially perhaps the surging bond yields across the globe. could that have an impact on your operations in any shape or form? focusing on the .ocal markets more
[inaudible] you see we grew more than 12% in 2017, as well as investment growing by more than 100% during 2017. started issuing 2017 come which also created opportunities, especially for those combined banks. yousef: here's an idea for you. this comes from some of the analysts as well. if you look at your performance and your ambitions and you want to grow your branch network, it is perhaps merges and acquisitions as a way to go into the new year with some innovation. what do you think? banks inready two
saudi arabia announced they are looking to a merger. that has become public information. have strategicl growth for 2018. we added 14 branches, more than atm's.m.'s in 2017 -- 90 in 2017. that is the largest among saudi banks, which has exceeded 1400. we have more than 148 branches. we have more room to grow. yousef: if rising bond yields are not an issue and if the government is spending again, you have crude that has declined
, is there anything that could stop your growth in 2018? guest: i think we have many inortunities, not only spending, but also the private sector as well. hasact, when government issued spending, that gives opportunities for private sector to jump in on those projects. this is where the opportunity comes. yousef: briefly, any changes on the dividend front at all in the next quarter? guest: what is that? yousef: any change in the dividend payout for the next quarter? guest: over the last three years 5%.re did that about yousef: we will see how it all plays out.
yousef: it has been another bumper year for dubai airport as it holds onto the top spot for international traffic. they saw more than 80 million people pass through in 2017, hoping to hit 90 million this year. less get more on the story with the ceo of dubai airport, paul griffith. congratulations on the numbers you have been very bullish about. i want to get some context as to how much more growth is achievable going forward. it is starting to slow down just a little bit. guest: the thing is come along
we have is a shortage of capacity. we may be the largest international airport in the world, but we have one of the smallest footprints musso -- footprints, so we have got to make use of our slots now. fortunately with the emirate strategy we are seeing much more efficient use. -- on someonth months, something like 260 passengers per slot, probably 40 passengers ahead of the most efficient user of airports lots around the world -- slots around the world. that i think means that the growth may be slightly slower, but the quality of that growth and the actual key markets that we serve continues to forge ahead. yousef: we put up on a chart the basic trend on a month to month basis. our clients can pull this up. in terms of the growth remaining intact and what has been happening with the figures, the
question becomes how much you can read the plate -- you can replicate that success on the cargo front. guest: cargo remains quite buoyant. we have seen traffic numbers of through65 million tons the course of 2017. at dubai world central, the new airport, we have something like 7.9% growth overall. it has been quite a buoyant year for cargo as well as passenger numbers. yousef: it has been a tough year in terms of politics. it has been a year since donald trump came into office. howhe question is, much of a negative impact in numbers have you seen? we were talking about concerns on rising protectionism and more security concerns that would impact the free flow of passengers for the xp -- through
dxp. bring you stand now? fully 17 started with the executive orders and the -- 2017ions on travel started with the executive orders and the restrictions on travel, but we are pleased to see most of those problems were quickly overcome. the second half of 2017 we saw a record growth and significant numbers of months through the year where we were well over the 7 million passengers per month. something like 180 people a minute now go through, and our be morearget may modest, but our quality targets in the customer service delivery is really the main focus. yousef: what about congestion? i travel a lot as well. if you are traveling at the hours -- at peak hours it is difficult to get through the airport. what are you doing to address some of that?
are you facing capacity constraints? you are trying to increase capacity, but as you do you are taking capacity off-line. guest: what we are doing is pursuing a significant .nfrastructure renewal program is going for a major refurbishment. we are also seeing now an open gate concept, which is a much more passenger friendly opportunity for us to showcase all of the different innovation. the main focus is actually the investment in new passenger technology. come intootice as you the airport the new smart gauge intended to reduce the immigration transaction time dramatically. there's a big increase in those coming through in the course of this year. we are focusing on ways to remove some of the intrusive processes that passengers have to experience at an airport,
automating them and basically leading the way in showcasing some of the new technical solutions. yousef: i've spoken to a couple of of investors who have told me dxb runs it airports so well they should be running other airports. there's a stake in riyadh airport up for sale. interested? dxb isat the moment, quite a challenge. open aabout to significant expansion of the airport to almost four times its current capacity over the course of the next few months. of not sure at the moment there is such a capacity to a good job elsewhere, but who knows? for the future, anything is possible. yousef: any shift in terms of geographic patterns at all in terms of destinations from dx
b? guest: the u.k. remains a very strong performer. --don is our very big s big city. we are seeing exciting increases from asia as the sources for most of our growth and indeed most of our target for 2018. yousef: always a pleasure having you on the program. paul griffith, ceo of dubai airports. let's get a quick check of the markets that continue to be under pressure in the asian equities session, especially on the nikkei with automotive stocks dragging down those drops, as it were. the u.s. dollar index and equity futures still lower. that is all we have for this edition of "bloomberg markets: middle east." top stories from around the world coming up. "bloomberg technology" is next. this is bloomberg.
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