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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  February 19, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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extending gains come at the yet retreating from a 15 month high. >> traders looking ahead to keep events, and the official record of janet yellen's last meeting with the fed. bhp said the report's biggest profits in years under renewed pressure. and president trump offers support for limited gun checks, that in the wake of the florida
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school massacre. >> hello from sydney, where our where in the., and opening the market spread. had to theke you asia-pacific trading, but today markets were closed because of the presidents' day holiday, so i will send it over to you. heidi: european stocks faltering and futures looking at low bit low, but look at the set up here in new zealand where we are seeing trading under way and had output and input prices coming in, pretty much banking on expectations. seeing a flat session when it comes to kiwi stocks and the kiwi dollar trading at 7371 with the u.s. dollar a little bit weaker overnight. futures in australia, ahead of four pointspen --
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is the downside, and the aussie dollar -- also a touch weaker against the euro and the yen, and the aussie kiwi is at 1.0737. down,o have gold futures and crude seeing gains, wti -- let's get you to first world news. the reason may is preparing to set up her vision for the u.k. post exit trade deal in a speech seem to aim at domestic trading. did as yet the cap to approve next week speech and the timing leaves little time for other eu leaders to finalize their position ahead of the summit on march 22.
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singapore announced increases including a price hike -- and population, aging properties worth more than a million dollars was up from three to 4% on tuesday and the government plans to raise the tax to 9% sometime from 2021 to 2025. day,in rose for a fourth breaking through $11,000, and up over 50% and cryptocurrencies have been recovering on the feeling they want be regulated. sayser, s&p global rating the currency will struggle to mainstream finance until regulators finalize their position. has extended his reign as the best paid ceo on
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wall street, taking the title for a second straight year. his total package last year was 29 point $5 million, a 4% rise that was the smallest among the top five banks, morgan stanley's takingorman saw a hike his compensation to $27 million. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. u.s. president donald trump is signaling has support for limited background checks on gun fires. this in the wake of the florida school massacre, and the latest there -- our national reporter has the latest from washington, and question i have for you, whether this appears to be a concession to the gun reform lobby or is it? a carefully worded statement from president trump he is open to conversation in
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-- a statement through his spokesperson, it looks at people's criminal records and kernel history before they buy a gun. this piece of legislation is a bipartisan proposal that is endorsed by the gun lobby, the national rifle association, so it is a modest change if anything. >> i saw that no surprise that the nra applauds that proposal, but as you said, it doesn't change very much in terms of that situation. looking broader, does the parkland shooting change gun politics in the united states? the students, survivors saying they want change and rounding people and we have seen their images flash across the screen. to what extent is there change now? think there may be some change is that it is a jarring thing to see children on tv putting congress on notice same thoughts and prayers are not enough. this is not something we see on
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a regular basis, some big we are not seen before at all, so it is a notable thing elevating the tension that this should he gets relative to other shootings that we have seen -- and we have regularly in the united states. thingsn skeptical that will change, it has been the case for two decades that the energy and activism and organization on the pro-gun side, the gun right side far energy and mobilization and activism on the gun control side. that changed a little in the last for years but i still think there is a vast mismatch that gives the advantage to the gun rights group. a sense of fatigue when we had these tragic events. what have we learned from these tweets? he has been tweeting about russia related indictment by bob mueller that indicted 13 nationals in a conspiracy to meddle in the 2016 presidential
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election. the president claimed vindication as a result of that because there was no allegation in the indictment that the president or his team you about colluded withy russia on this, but that initial claim has given way to a lot of anger and lashing out from president trump over the weekend at his critics, at the investigation, and harsh terms by donald trump standards. he does not like that the investigation exists and he --ieves it cast doubt on it the legitimacy of his presidency. thank you so much for that. getmberg subscribers can more in-depth insight on this theother top stories -- editor of leading
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russian daily, do check that out at view. ahead, you tax increases for singapore, will break down the impact. sharing, next, earnings, and gains. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you are watching "daybreak: australia". the australian earnings season wraps up this week with very big names due to report including glencore and bhp, but before we do that let's get a review with paul allen to tell us what we have seen so far. what is the verdict here? verdict is not too
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shabby, the bank saying this is one of the strongest seasons in the past 15 years in australia, and the numbers breakdown like this. 28% of companies have upgraded at 1% or more, and that compares to 23% that had gone grades, at least about four results from commonwealth bank, and west farmers, the proper outlook will be 6/10 of 1% higher, so overall, it is not as shabby as it seems, but there is underlying strength in the australian profits, and that is backed up by number data as well if we take a look at our own research. more than halve companies reporting so far have had positive earnings, and it is a big week coming up for bhp due to report any minute now and is expended to be strong on the backs of surging commodity prices and we have west farmers, qantas, and plenty to watch out for. earningsan sink
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rising, and the what the reagan ahead of australian equity research, jason, great to have you. it is interesting because you whenhad australian stocks it comes the global equities rally, the profit story, the earnings story has been placed in places like japan, but is it strong in australia? in 8% growth in oesterle for 2018 which is relatively quite good. there is a narrowing gap between outgrowth and developed markets, which is important because last year we saw developed our kids because of the strength in i.t., and it is a small sector in our market. we see the and and have fundamental valuation, and we see so far signed that growth is there in terms of reporting season at this stage. >> which names and sectors would you be looking at?
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commodity names, with upswing you nameil prices -- it, it is definitely what is driving force, that the same time every sector is going to generate some growth, telco i go back a touch but every sector is generating growth. the forget from our perspective, financials were up three or 4%, which is a good backdrop. after this extraordinary start to the year in terms of selloff and rebound and recovery where seeing, where do valuations fit in australia? >> 50.3 times, which is not demanding historically, what we are seeing which is interesting from my perspective and important for investors is that we are seeing a narrowing in the gap of outperformance from the rest of the world. we see investors gravitate to australia for the extent of our defensive major -- nature our
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market offers. we are seeing investors say australia is a place to buy when there is growth in volatility and we see an opportunity to find a haven in australia. performance wise we have outperformed over the last month. investors love confidence and conviction and i see in your notes you have a super seven with high conviction -- talk to me about this. superd morning, yes, our seven is corralling our team where we have strongest views. we cover 160 stocks in australia and a wide range of different views that my analysts have -- what we tried to narrow it down to is that where there is a group with high conviction in earnings outlook. breaking down the super seven to where we are ahead of the market earnings estimates and we differentiated and what these companies can do from an operational perspective and where we have high valuation which clearly should be driven by the higher earnings.
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the super seven is an eclectic group of stocks uneasy would imagine, and so far as the mix of companies that come together, but some of the big names -- one big in particular that has done csl, anothers which reported last week which has had some negative sentiment around them, but we are starting to see some of these -- the super seven is narrowing to the conviction ideas my team has. looking ahead to this week, you have a scatter plot which is interesting. let's pull this up and talk about it, we are taking a look at alledge calls you have and some of the most bearish calls you have. we have taken up the middle part to show where these are. for example, talk about your xb.t bullish bet, b why so bullish there? >> they have faced headwinds in u.s. business, but when it comes
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to bramble's of view, we see this as a cyclical swing in the u.s. in terms of pricing and the competitive environment. oppositionthers, but is cyclical and from that we expect returns to improve quite remarkably over the next two to three years as the central place to their favor. thatthat scatter shows is we have a much higher view on stocktractiveness of the from a recommendation perspective and certainly from a valuation standpoint, but it comes to what we see them doing an american business and it will turn in their favor as market share gains continue to move forward in 2018 and 2019. >> look at the opposite side, qantas is on the back of the bearish side of things, what is the argument for investors that they need to know? >> we are seeing some of the downside play out, and therefore we are seeing that bearishness narrow to some extent.
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a couple of factors are the evidence we see of capacity additions in the local market, that is where returns are high and we have been concerned by the risk around those capacity additions. to a certain extent, a fairly tepid consumer environment albeit improving recently, and we can't forget that the maddock oil price which would have an effect. they are in that quadrant, which will in for a more bearish view than the market has on qantas. it feels like, these concerns they have to start reinvesting after the turnaround. it is almost as this is as good as it is going to get. concerns about how that is going to impact the debt load as well? >> there is no doubt that qantas management has done a good job the point of view of cost saving and we organizing the's this an restructuring, but when you get into the investment cycle, you isn't, anda company
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it comes down to their management and their ability to employ that capital effectively and at a return that is consummate with history. it is always a challenging period. arterely for qantas, the may cycle where management has that a great job in reshaping the business and the question now becomes what they do when they get into the investment phase? expectationsour with mining, will the story play out in a favorable way? read of thegood miners through quarterly results. yet the quarterlies -- and get a a productionwhere perspective is an act is analyst and myself a good read of where they are heading in terms of volume, then we get a better idea of cost and what companies
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might be doing from a capital management perspective. continued efforts to manage capital effectively for shareholders -- they are on the lookout as the stated clearly, and there are flush with cash, and is starting to think that only a year and a half to two years ago there were serious concerns about the bounce sheet of many of these companies taking on dividends and concerns about balance sheet overall. now there can the territory of giving cash back and that is the focus for the sector and we look at the sector and we have a mutual on overalls, but will receive the continues to drive the sector is capital returns. key will definitely be a aspect of material is reporting through the course of the next couple of weeks. >> across the board, was the implications you are seeing? across the board, was the implications you are seeing? >> it is obviously a concern as we look at into an environment where the aussie dollar has bottomed and start to move higher will have a negative impact more broadly on the economy. that is the correlation, but it seems to be stabilizing in the
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75 to 80 range. our perspective, as long as it is stable, it holds within that range, it doesn't break higher -- sharply because we know what we are dealing with. if you talk to offshore investors, they what a degree of comfort and i range to think about redeploying capital into australia because in the meetings we do offshore -- there isn't much interest in australia around the offensive aspect and currency is a factor in that. jason.or your opinions -- thank you for your opinions. toomberg subscribers can go db go, and it is available on mobile and you can customize settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> will come back. you are watching "daybreak: australia" and a quick check of business flash headlines. the amsterdam-based exchange operator is open to legs with other european companies -- euronext will continue to pursue any opportunity in the industry with a view of broadening its top line. >> deutsche bank is eliminating jobs to keep a lid on expenses, and where the 20th the positions are gone and senior and mid-level investment banking and that number could eventually top two 500. -- there are no closer to -- with trading slumping 20% last
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quarter and that might with self-admitted generous bonuses pushed business to the red. >> british retail billionaire denies he is planning to sell his fashion empire. shelfcadia group owns top -- and the sunday times said he companylks -- with the in talks to buy one of his companies for $20 million, and yes taken a controlling stake in the shoemaker. singapore has announced a range of tax increases for its rapidly aging population. correspondent to take away from the budget, the tax act as expected, a surprise levy as well, this is about countering or combating demographics. >> you are right, it is about rising expenses. from 7% to raised
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9%, and that will be between 2021 and 2025, and the government is deciding on the revenue it needs. one thing to note is that despite the rise it will be among the lowest in asia. taxes asl be other well, taxes on imported services online video, music streaming, and the surprised -- residential properties of $750,000 in the u.s. was increased, that will be effective from today. revenue, taxes for singapore has been too reliant on investment returns from gic, investment companies, they are the largest contributor to revenue along with income from government of singapore, but there will be strain in the
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coming years because of higher expenditure on health care, education, security, the economy is maturing as well. raleigh, looking at finances, to $9.6e -- amounting billion -- and estimate of $9.8 billion for 2018 is projected to have a deficit of 0.6 8 billion. what other key highlight is that the budget is encouraging better energy efficiency and a carbon tax. is that new? >> it is. in a a way of easing carbon tax yeaera. affect large industrial facilities that produce 25,000 tons of
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greenhouse gases per year, like all refineries, and power generators that produce 80% of the country's greenhouse gases. all refineries will end up in carbon million taxes, and that is the estimate of wood mackenzie. of $1e the biggest chair billion the government expects to collect in the first five years, so it is an introduction and it is new, and it is another way of generating revenue for this country. >> a small red dot as people say, but a lot in terms of energy efficiency. looking forward to seeing what will come in the future there and what may happen with the taxes coming out. our chief international correspondent from singapore, thank you very much. up next, a look of what to expect from bhp's latest numbers and they will be reporting shortly.
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elliott management continues to demand change in order to possibly reunify the company. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ it is 9:30 a.m. in sydney. markets open in just 30 minutes. a little negativity when it comes to sydney futures, about .2%. ,o carry through from the u.s. markets closed for president's day. asia closed for the lunar new year's holiday. mainland china and taiwan remain closed. i am haidi lun in sydney. and yourishaad salamat are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia" ." let's now get to first word news. boe governor mark carney says
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he is fighting the uk's next financial crisis. while he knows the central bank cannot eliminate risks of future the bank is planning for bank failures, providing liquidity and ensuring capital levels. mark carney accepting a crisis will happen is the best way to prepare. areorities in sweden concerned the economy is moving too fast. the report is expected by the middle of the year, but a parliamentary committee set the demise of cash would make it hard to maintain the infrastructure for handling money. president trump has offered support for strengthening of background checks on gun buyers. since taking office 13 months ago, the main action the
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president has taken is to block an obama administration rule designed to keep weapons away from mentally disturbed people. has repeatedly stressed support for gun rights and the nra. the winter olympics have seen new sporting records and the creation of the world's darkest building funded by hyundai and created by a london-based architect. the building is is armed with a material that can absorb 99% of all light hitting its surface. buildingtect says the represents positivity and sense of opportunity. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am haslinda amin this is bloomberg. ♪ let's >> you a quick update on markets. new zealand trading higher. onducer prices coming in
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expectations. trading atllar .7374. futures looking lower going into the sydney open. not a lot of leading events this week. releasinge rba minutes, as well as fomc minutes from janet wellen's last meeting. we are expecting more color as to the growth outlook from those statements. the aussie softer against the yen and year old. come of the weakness in the yen, falling back from that 15 month high, driving the ramp up in tokyo equities. we are waiting to see aphasia can build on the week. trading getting underway today. 106.58 is where the yen is trading.
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u.s. equity and treasury markets not trading for president's day, but a massive week ahead. an auction totaling $258 billion testweek could be a litmus for the bond market as to how steeply these are roaring costs could rise this year and a reminder that the s&p he much flat, the best week for the u.s. benchmark in five years. we will see if we can build on that. let's take a look at trading and asia. garfield reynolds is here. is, you say the market is in a precarious or crucial position at the moment ,. that big selloff and everybody was jumping out of their skins, is this a healthy correction or something less healthy? we had a big rebound last week,
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and now this break, and you look at what went on yesterday in the markets that were open and we had the two sides of the coin we are flipping. heads was the asia rally, and tales was the europe retreat. the question is what do we get for the rest of the week? we have a chart to show you, i believe. , the looking at the way interaction between volatility , and we have a global gauge of volatility that blends together volatility for stocks, fx, and bonds. you see the way that spiked up as stocks came down, and now we have a coming back down as a stocks have started to bounce up. volatility is still elevated. the pattern would seem to be that if they keep going down from here, it will settle back into its old ways and get lower and lower and lower, and that
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would allow stocks to go higher and higher and higher. the trend line is in play one way or the other. we could go above trend line or break with it altogether, and that will be the story this week. >> if only we knew. >> if i were you, i would not be working here. bonds on the other side with that $250 billion in play. there are indications bond yields are on average, and they are saying a little more inflation could rock the bond market. >> this is the guerrilla in the room all the way through, even wen bonds quiet down, are getting inflation because we have had such week inflation for so long that everybody got used to the idea you could depend on the bond yields to stay down, even as central bank started to remove accommodation. we had a whiff of some of the
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chaos if inflation really gets away from us when we had that spike in yields at the end of was justh, and that one indicator showing we may get some acceleration in inflation. we are waiting for the next shooter drop, and when it does we could get a big jump in yields, and that could feedback to the stock market. that is what really got the route going we had in markets. you are looking at the percentg terminal, 2.8 now is where the u.s. 10 year yield is, but he could hit 3.5% by the end of this year. garfield reynolds, thank you very much. .et's turn to earnings bhp billiton reporting first-half earnings tuesday. tois expected to respond
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elliott management's latest call for a very big change. our melbourne bureau chief joins us now. bhp reported its big first-half profit in 3.5 years. what is driving this? looking toaid, bhp report its biggest numbers since 2014. is the strongg it global growth environment. , heldices for copper, oil up relatively well. you had strong global growth, what also demand for products in china, which is its biggest market, held up well. investment banks like goldman sachs predicting the rally in commodities, copper, oil, and others, will continue through
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2018 and as of that is good news for bhp and shareholders. what they will be looking for today is whether bhp will return cash proceeds to investors. that has been that they call from the investment community we the last few years, and saw rio tinto return $10 billion last week to its shareholders, so that will be keenly watched today, dividends, buybacks. shareholders and give me some of those cash proceeds back. ramy: one other thing that investors will be wanting to know is if there is any thought coming out from bhp with the activist investor elliott management trying to get them to what can we expect from them if anything? see whether want to bhp has any commentary in its
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earnings statement about elliott management's latest claims. looking to unify and simplify the company structure around a single entity based in australia rather than the structure it has at the moment. theou say, $22 billion is value that elliott says could be released if bhp does it. bhp said they have run the analysis and it would be costly and disadvantage some shareholders, and they are willing to stay the course for now. any commentary in response to what elliott said will be watch today. you also had the shale the vestment bhp is working on in the u.s. at the moment, which is the other thing we might hear some talk on. terms where are we at in of this defenseman effort and -- shale efforts in the u.s. divestment effort and its shale
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efforts in the u.s.? company thate aliens of dollars to buy in earlier in the decade, and now it is pushing a reverse on that. that is something elliott called for when it emerged last year. there is a full-blown sale process going on for those assets at the moment. we understand rather than sell them in one line that perhaps bhp will look to carve up these intohese assets different geographic basins. that is being worked on by the company at the moment and we expect they will have something to say to the market in relation to have a plan to develop before the end of the year, so any comment on how that is progressing will be closely watched. haidi: right. thank you so much for that. joiningackenzie will be
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atomberg markets later on 1:15 a.m. here in sydney, 10:15 in the evening in hong kong. allianz global investors said yields have become messy, but good. speaking about the flattening yield curve and the search to for more volatility. >> we have reached an interesting level at the 10 year and it is interesting the yield curve has flattened to where it has. been anls have really interesting move and i don't think the yield curve will steepen from here without further action on the short end. >> could it get messy from here? >> it got messy already, hasn't it?" it i good messy. volatility is healthy. we had such a risk on trade for so many years with the fed put and all that, so a bit messy, but has corrected itself, and now we are looking forward to
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more volatility, and if you are in active investor, it means opportunity to generate alpha. >> where does the volatility come from? this is a simple s&p chart back to 2014, my chart of the week a couple of weeks ago. every time you see a circle, a 5% correction downward. you can see the upward trajectory of the s&p 500, then we have what happened a couple of weeks ago. do you think there is more volatility to come in equities, or does it spread to the credit market? volatilitythe spreads to the credit market is the $64 million question. it depends on the health of the underlying economy rather than short-term interest rates. we have a goldilocks scenario global with aggregate demand an investment picking up, so i am not too worried at this stage
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come up at the chart is really telling you we went up too fast. our estimate was for the year equity returns from start to end about 4% -- to 4%. the move we saw in january is done. >> this is pent-up tranquility. do you see that as a signal that could spread to the credit markets? are you ready to take away your position if it does spread? >> i think the signal would be a significant weakening and global economic activity. i think we will see credit healthy this year. >> are we going back to active investment? >> we never left it really. we have seen that come through the numbers in 2017. active managers have done better generating alpha in 2017 than the preceding 3-5 years. continue to take
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risks, asset allocation risks, currency risks, credit risks, and we like asian markets. >> you came on the show years -- realalk about it interest rates. >> real interest rates are negative, inflation rates are picking up. we still have altra loose monetary policy. the key challenge as investment professionals is how do we secure the real income and the real purchasing power of the people who invest with us. year where it a you see the beginning of the end of easy money? >> yes, it is the pivot year. we have certainly seen the peak of ultra-loose monetary policy. as inflation rises and interest interest rates will be negative or barely at zero, so we are far off from positive real interest rates,
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particularly in europe and japan. ramy: interesting conversation. qe, less qe, that was the toianz cao -- ceo speaking francine lacqua on bloomberg surveillance. as we count down to bhp first-half earnings, we also look at the commodities sector as a whole. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: 1:00 a.m. haidi lun in sydney. i am remy innocence you in new york and you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." oil climbed above $62 as producers signaled tightening supply. let's look at that and the whole with oures complex
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next guest. thank you for being on the show. let's stick with oil. brent up 5% from its 2018 low so far. i see you think this will head south moving forward. why? seeing this year is a physical buildup of stock. what we see is supply outpacing demand. that comes from what we are seeing out of the u.s.. u.s. supply growth is expected to be 14% this year. it will not keep up. physical surplus, we see a down trend ends prices. we see the listing lasting until the end of the year. you are is interesting talking about this through the lens of u.s. shale.
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when we see 10 million barrels a day, possibly a 11 million, a lot of folks saying opec having to worry about that, but looking ahead with 11 million barrels possible, you are saying this is a concern of yours. it is absolutely a concern because the way that opec has set the deal is they are just trying to get rid of surplus stock. the marginal cost of production will matter, and that will come out of the u.s.. $65 toes get to around $70, you should see a strong incentive for u.s. shale to come online. it takes about six months to go from rigged deployment to production. that is the risk, it can respond quickly. i guessn that case, through these optics of how u.s. is still basically the swing producer in this market,
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is it too early for opec to consider what their exit strategy will be? publicink right now in it will not be something they will talk about because the signaling from opec is critical if and how much the credibility of this deal rests upon saudi arabia, russia, iran, where there is a lot of speculation this they not work. public signaling is the deal will last until the end of the year, but they will think about what prices reasonable and are we leaving market share open for the u.s. shale sector. haidi: i want to move on to iron ore. this is a volatile issue at the best of times, but most analysts we speak to say it could be a particularly volatile year when it comes to the signal that china, whether these policy tweaks will amplify supply. what you think about this idea
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that we will see a year made up alfs on oil prices? >> it is some we agree with. we expect iron ore averaging $55 a ton by the end of the year. that forecast comes on the idea that we are seeing supply growth respond, and we are seeing that , and outside of brazil and australia, so we are seeing the physical market respond. scenario last year, but really our concern is how these restocking cycles work. since mid-december to now, we have seen iron ore prices rallied on the hopes that demand will take up after the chinese new year and enter cut over. the real question is how that will play out. more clarity on
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policy and demand over the next month. it is only then that we will really know, but right now the market is preparing very much for steel demand to continue its strength from last year, which we have talked about. are yourat expectations for the major commodities earnings this week with glencore and bhp closer to home? >> in terms of what we are seeing, the mantra had always been about cost control, productivity, and that is where we see value for a lot of these major producers. as the as we have that guiding framework, these margins have just exploded come up because the way commodity prices margins ared and expanding and earnings are going up, and these producers are keeping supply discipline, so in our view the way they have
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operated has been perfect since prices have been -- have recovered over two years ago. there.e will leave it thank you for your time and comments. taking a look at the commodities around the world. of ours live and see any past interviews on our interactive tv function. that is tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am remy innocence you in new york. haidi: i am haidi lun in australia. up, "bloomberg markets: asia," a crucial turning point for the markets. >> we will be asking where to at 8:00 10g markets
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hong kong time. not changed,has short dollar come along asian equities, but closely watching these indices to capture the movements and volatility and see if volatility is here to say. ramy: before that, we will hear from the nomura research institute. more insight into what is happening at the boj, especially the important event of governor kuroda and those two new deputy governor members. haidi: and this bugbear that is the japanese yen. we will be speaking to westpac talking all things affects here it he said the failure of the dollar to rally on january cpi numbers suggest the cementing
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expectations of further dollar weakness and therefore yen strength will create headwinds as we get into the tokyo open. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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in hong kong. we are live from bloomberg's asia headquarters. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." market set to slide as the euro fails and the yen retreats. traders look to key events, including rba minutes and janet yellen's last meeting at the fed. ramy: from bloomberg's global headquarters, i am ramy inocencio in new york. bhp to report its biggest first-half profit in three years , also under renewed pressure from an activist investor. also, president


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