tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg June 17, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
yvonne: we are live from bloomberg headquarters unit cap stories this monday -- headquarters. top stories this monday. heartland responding to the u.s. tariffs. the president says he is ready to escalate the fight. it is just past 7:00 p.m. on a sunday year. opec facing a primary meeting indiana leading a rebellion against saudi and russian plans to pump more oil.
not be dead just yet. why central banks are not ready to get out of the business. ♪ morning and good morning to all our viewers across the asia-pacific. it was definitely something to think about from what happened with china with retaliation of the 34 early dollars on u.s. goods and looking ahead to what is happening in opec news. first it was saudi arabia and russia saying that they wanted to pump more oil. iran, venezuela and iraq saying this is not going to be happening. we have a big week ahead of us in what is going on with the trade and commodity front. seeing for trade, we are
these punches being thrown. is there room for negotiation? are we at a point of no return? with these tariffs are put in place, there is a little bit of wiggle room to iron out the differences. talk is getting tough. ramy: july 6 is when they are supposed to be enacted. let's get a quick reminder of where u.s. markets closed on friday. we heard the news from china about the retaliation and we saw the markets respond. the dow down about one third percent. was energy weight because of what was going on with opec. the nasdaq down about .2%. with oil, the declines are continuing. -- crude was down. we're seeing further losses there.
also see aluminum down and soybeans down on those trade war fears with china. thate: take a look at how is in the set up. pretty flat at the moment. you can blame it on the world cup with those people staying up late to watch the matches. we are seeing down about 1/5 percent. all features pretty much unchanged. , we did see a little bit of selling off on friday in the u.s. taking a look at how currencies are faring. the dollar is holding on of the gains -- onto the gains from last week. the aussie dollar -- the euro
seeing a little bit of weakness against the dollar. take a look at markets as well. we see a rush in some of these treasuries, getting some of these trade skirmishes. the 10 year treasury at 292. european bond market, we are seeing a they for a fixed income, especially with the italian 10 year yield up. get caught up on the first word news. iran says venezuela and iraq will join in blocking the saudi russian proposal to increase oil production. listing crudepack prices. the biggest producers want a relaxation as soon as next month. thata says opec make an
are production increase of up to one point one million barrels a day. the largested foreign owner of treasuries in april, even with a slight drop in. by $5.8 billion -- tensionslion grow over trade. the second holder, japan's treasuries drop. elected -- as president. the third elections of the rebel group. under a campaign of cutting taxes on company profits. he claimed more than 54% of - 54% of both and will votes.
favorite brazil for opening the match. germany's defense of its title is off to a rocky start, a defeat to mexico. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. the global economy is on the verge of a trade war with china quickly retaliating to the announcement of tariffs on chinese imports. fromackenzie joining us beijing with more on this monday morning. when it came to the u.s., they were targeting more of the china tech. very clearly.
two stages to his from the chinese perspective. the tariffs they announced on friday and saturday, targeting billions of dollars of goods initially. that is on the farm belt of the u.s. with soybeans and corn. of soybeans. tgeng auditors -- autos. be impacted like this. also, some of the german .utomakers like bmw they will feel the pain as well. wassecond round of tariffs
in about $16 billion worth of u.s. goods. we do not know when it will be enacted yet. they are under review. that was focused on coal. chinese like the strategy is to put pressure on areas that they hope will lead to some sort of policy change from the white house. ramy: how likely is the six acted to play out? unlikely,ems according to most of the analyst and economists that we have been talking to that they will come to an agreement before july 6. said that trump has he is drawing up a list of about $100 billion with of goods, which would face additional tariffs. if that goes into place, china said it will respond. it will be difficult for china
to meet the number. you have to look at some of the investment in china from u.s. companies. to billion dollars worth of u.s. investment in the chinese market. you could get actions from policymakers around licensing, inspections that could make life difficult for those companies operating here. big firms like boeing who sells huge numbers of aircraft to chinese market could be impacted as well. you saw their share price drop slightly. that is one to watch. those are actions that china can take. respondl see how they and if there is any wiggle room to close the divide between now and july 6. ramy: tom mackenzie in beijing growing latest on this possible trade war between the u.s. and china. joining us now to dig into the
latest on this digital trade war is president leland miller. what are your thoughts in terms of the number? 34 billion dollars the not less than $50 billion that the white house through a china. pposes,ntents a i think you will get the 34 and you might get the 50, but that is a major escalation. you have much more politically sensitive areas you will have to hit. if the chinese do not support hit 150,s. goods to that means you have to hit them elsewhere. since china has barriers, the one thing they would put in next would have to be louder, meaner and this will create a major escalation. questions calls into
the desire on beijing's part. do they really want to? do they want this to happen? they are not trying to push the envelope any more than trump is. understands that it has to respond or they will look week. weak. a huge victory for china. it is almost a best case scenario. they are hoping they do not go thehe president -- goad president. if the president's party loses the midterms, you are looking at central impeachment. make --ident have to potential impeachment. in terms of escalating this, it
is very unlikely that you will tariffs billion in before the midterms. yvonne: do you think this is a fundamental shift in his strategy with china about no longer reducing trade deficit but strong-arming china? >> that is the strategy this week. next week you will probably be something different. very few people outside the white house understand that bilateral trade deficit is not want to target in the relationship. there is a lot of support for opening market access and -- market access. right now you are seeing a shift back to where this should be. the most important thing to do is minimize the trade deficit. with the tax reform bill, you ensure that you will lose by your own metrics, which will
create tension later in the year. it does not mean that there is a long-term or medium-term change in the trade strategy. yvonne: what extent do you think the strategy is effective? do you think restricting exports hampers the ability to move up value chain? >> i think the most effective way to deal with this is through more substantial restrictions in the u.s. and more substantial export controls when technology is leaving u.s. firms, particularly firm based in china. there are things to do. there is a lot of people talking about these. there are supposed to be restrictions coming into effect in the future. there are parts of the administration, key players in the white house trade team, that believes that any type of movement towards china other than the status quo will disrupt markets. you have this battle in the white house between people who do not want to do anything and people who want to be tougher.
between thes battle tough and people who want armageddon -- that is not happening at all. a little bit of a look from your analysis in the white house. who is winning this pull and push? the secretary steve mnuchin is winning. he does not want aggressive action on china. you have other people in the adtion w are much tougher. a want to be much tougher. even some of the people who want approach has been fairly cautious because they understand the president gets worked up about stuff. they would probably caution for a tougher approach am a but they understand if they get the president at the wrong time, he could say something that could as late. -- escalate. tough policyh less than people expected so far. ramy: i want your reaction from
some things. he was saying that these terrorists could backfire. .hina's tariffs on the u.s. one possibility is that they might get mad at trump, but they might get mad at china and come even closer to donald trump and vote him back in. what are your thoughts? >> i think the people are ready support trump and they are already nodded china. -- mad at china. the longer this goes on, the more anger there will be. there will always be blame against china in the u.s. for this type of activity. the economy as a whole gets disrupted enough that people say that they trusted the president, but why is he doing this? maybe we will not vote for his party in november. this has to escalate quite a
bit. wasn't the take to escalate further, for this to quickly ramp up from the 52 -- the 100 they are considering right now? do you have to look at what is going on in europe as well? >> the real major escalation possibilities, which would be real problems, which would be the 100 billion. there might be a tweet that says tweet that says 100 billion coming, but that does not mean that it will go into effect before the midterms. the other thing is the auto tariffs. look like they are expediting them before the election. they want to say something, that we are being tough and defending u.s. industry, but not the potentthe president t get animated and blow it out of proportion. those are the risks.
before the midterms, there is more chance you will see a calm her playing field -- calmer playing field. yvonne: hold that thought. we'll have more. still ahead, more on the u.s. china tensions and why the chief market strategist says the white house is the single largest risk to trade. ramy: we will continue the conversation with leland miller and get his take on the decision not to follow the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪
zte. between become a battle bipartisan and democrats and the white house. it could be a turning point for u.s. and china relations moving forward. let's continue with president leland miller. i am curious to see what you think about the zte debacle. zte could pushke the brink of going under sanctions, could this prompt chinese companies to increase -- improve corporate governance? >> i think it is a positive for china. it called the united states into a work -- an embarrassing reversal. all kinds of security threats that were listed. the president made a phone call and this got reversed. the chinese still very good
about the outcome. pushed and and reversed it. i think it sent the wrong signal. will ms of reform, zte sub in communist officials to their board. yvonne: you have been talking about the softening of the data. under the belief that this could decline in china and potentially disrupt the chinese economy? >> we talked about a weaker economy. we will have our data out publicly next week and have a lot to say about the state of the chinese economy. i would caution not to look too closely at one month. when you look at what happened in may and say there is historically low f or retail,
you're getting a lot of white capita or retail, you're getting a lot of white noise. we are not there yet. yvonne: at what point does the pboc blank -- blink? goingally do see chinese into lockstep. we did not see that last week. is that surprising to you? >> i do not think it is surprising. what the pboc has said is that they are deleveraging. that means credit tightening. they are in a way following the five. guessing that the credit think it is not turned off. -- we're seeing that the credit spicket is not turned off. shares spiraling has not moved. credit is still flowing to
firms. this dynamic.ing if you start seeing higher rates -- the end of last year and beginning of this year, this is the time to do it. you are not seeing that. the chinese government does not so comfortable that their firms can with a hand these rate hikes -- withstand these rate hikes. there might be a rate hike here or there that they can dance, but the economy cannot withstand , butat they can withstand they cannot withstand all of them. yvonne: plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
tom mackenzie asked the secretary have the group has managed to maintain harmony. >> shanghai cooperation organization has their own roadmap. looking to another structure or another organization. you have heard from you some difference from g7. i do not think it is correct for me. see our planeto with peace, without any turbulence. is the inclusion of india changing the dynamic of the organization? >> it was a good
right choice to invite india and pakistan. now, we are more powerful. it means we have more synergy. particularly in anti-terroristic areas because india and pakistan have a big experience in that area. in our more population area. now it is 3.2 billion people. have a lot of new windows in the economist sector. is it harder or easier for nations to balance the competing influence of china and russia? >> we are strategic partners.
yvonne:0 . nday mning in hong kong, pretty cloudy and quiet. it is a holiday for hong kong. the dragon boat holiday, good luck to all the teams. we are 30 minutes away from the first major market open. ramy: 7:30 p.m. in new york, where markets closed largely down 11%, but energy was the biggest weight on the s&p because of uncertainty as we look ahead to opec and vienna. i am ramy inocencio. yvonne: i am yvonne man. you are watching daybreak asia. let's get to first word news. economy ishe global on the verge of a trade war
after china's response to president trump's tariffs on $50 billion of their exports. each nation issued a detailed list of products to be hit with tariffs from july 6. after several rounds of diplomacy failed, thod producers targeting the american heartland, -- mr. trump: president xi is a great guy, b some point we have to straighten it out. we lost $500 billion in trade deficits last year. we cannot do that. haslinda: chinese state media have accused the trump administration of disgraceful behavior in starting a trade war. the people's daily said the u.s. have damaged not only bilateral interests but also the global economic order. state television is taking a similar line. >> what upsets us is america doesn't care at all about prior consensus and constantly changes
their minds. china doesn't want to fight a trade war but has to retaliate against america's soul -- selfish behavior and protect our country and firmly protect globalization and the multilateral world trade order. haslinda: australia will begin negotiations with the european union on the free trade agreement in what would be a big deal. talks will start in brussels next month. australia seeking better access for agricultural products. beef, lamb, sugar and rice are significantly constrained by e.u. tariffs. the bank of internationa settlements has blasted cryptocurrencies saying they may never become part of mainstream finance. at the annual report, they said bitcoin and its siblings are unstable, consume too much electricity and suffer too much
fraud to serve as genuine mediums of exchange. they could break the internet because locked requires too much processing power -- blockchain requires too much processing power. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. yvonne: more on what we should be watching us trading gets underway. markets editor adam haigh joining us. it is the development of the china-u.s. trade relationship that people are focusing on what many market are closed today. how are the others likely to respond? seen someave reaction, late friday we saw commodities complex selloff a little bit and commodity currencies, the aussie dollar and canadian dollar were also hit. there has been some shift already in terms of a slight
risk off reaction, but we are not seeing that in the equity markets across the board. flat,utures opening up not seeing any negative reaction. the point is this is another incremental step in these relations. we have got that july deadline, a few weeks away. ofs covers a bunch industries from technology to defense to aerospace, health care. there is a lot of idiosyncrasies with a lot -- within those, and we will not see all of those play out in public retreated in hong kong because it is a holiday. we will have to wait until tomorrow. the risk is still there for global investors. this is a big worry on their list of worries, problems that could derail global economic growth over the next few years, but ultimately plenty of people still in the camp that a
resolution does get done over this, the next few weeks, but that is looking slightly less likely now than it was a month ago. ramy: shifting from asia to europe, the pound will be in focus this week with the boe decision thursday and that might provide clues on the chances of an august hike. how serious is the leadership question in the u.k., especially from the currency? is a worry still for traders and investors in the u.k. securities. it is because of the currency market. this chart in your library shows it pretty well how the pound has been under pressure against the u.s. dollar. there is a lot going on this week. the boe decision on thursday, mark carney's committee on monetary policy looking really looking at the color around any direction towards the august move, whether we get a hike in august or not and his comments
around how the inflationary backdrop is developing. politics continue to play the trump card in the u.k. assets and with theresa may's leadership continuing to be tricky.ed, it remains today in the house of lords, there is a key vote. then wednesday the house of commons, and other vote that coulsway thi movement one way or another. there is a lot on the political front that mark carney is kind of continuing to struggle with because no matter what he says about how he tries to portray the outlook for growth and inflation, it ultimately comes back to theresa may and the conservative party and what the next steps are in political to the limits. ramy: trade and central banks in focus, adam haigh. don't forget to check out our gtv library for the charts you just saw. that is gtv on your bloomberg
terminal. the week ahead on wall street will bring more earnings and economic data and plenty of headline risk especially for oil. will there be a clash or will there be an agreement when opec members meet? su keenan is here with more. su: it is about headline risk for oil and will the trade war and other concerns weigh on stocks? let's go to the snapshot. we got heavy volume down friday, sets up a question for monday. we don't have a lot of options. you saw bonds jump as demands for risk receipts. let's look at the earnings th coast there is a big parade. federal express reports on the 19th, calling for tariffs on china goods, counterproductive. 5.68 -- $5.68 per share is expected on $7.24 billion in revenue. 11.9 billione --
dollars revenue for oracle. crushed by it got rivals like apple and samsun but some say it has a bullish outlook. back to be a good guide. above estimates. all of that in focus. also bitcoin, lily be another bad week? -- will it be another bad week? inot being said from the bis switzerland. you saw bitcoin fallen a big way, slightly down friday. now you have another riddick coming in saying it is flawed -- critic saying it is flawed. there are many critics, warren buffett, said it is poison squared, who are being proven correct at least for the moment. and let's take athere are many t oil. opec meeting coming up. it will be volatile.
will russia and the saudis push to lift those limits? there will be a lot of conflicting information. we already know -- ramy: we already know they are butting heads before they get to vienna. this rate -- this week is not so much the race but we have housing data. su: the stress test is less stressful. look at the banks, do they have access capital reserves? followthrough on dodd-frank? some of the analysts feel these are best positioned in terms of having the excess cash and having the capital. will anyone -- is anyone on the probationary list where they have to do certain things? you get two parts, one reader in the week. at the ego data ahead, you
mentioned housing, construction. that start soon. we are unclear footing going forward. you noted that existing sales were down in april and will positivestrong sales a given we are in a rising interest rate environment. and of course we are looking ahead to the media urge your front as well. we learned about this bidding battle to buy fox. su: disney had been in, then comcast. has a look at the stock, it shot up. thisoard is set to meet wednesday on what will be likely a board meeting to discuss what to do, how to proceed forward with the bid.
you can find his charts in gtv. all of the media stocks involved in the little triangle. disney is in white. blue is fox which is flying, and yellow is comcast. all have been moving in a big quest fors three-way domination in media with the rise of netflix and other streaming media. you see these want to align and find a way forward that positions them well. comcast, that is something followed on wall street. yvonne: thank you so much. su keenan with a look ahead for the week from new york. a look at the business headlines, top leaders in china have agreed to help hna raise funds there this follows a meeting with a senior pboc officials, regulators, and the company's biggest creditor. in order to support their future bond issues, there could be a safety net for the conglomerate that carries more than $93
billion in debt. ramy: chinese state media say electric vehicle maker byd is recalling 10,000 cars to replace potentially faulty takata airbags. this covers the models made between 2014 and 2017. the u.s. transport safety officials said at the end of 22 -- 20, 42% of million defective airbags had not been replaced. yvonne: japanese on may -- online marketplace makari is the first start up over $1 billion. a successful push into the u.s. would make it a real unicorn. it raises a lot of money last week at top of the range rising and investors gear up for the start of trading tuesday. the question is if they can execute this overseas expansion plan. ramy: we asked invest smart's evan lucas why discount is priced in from u.s. trade
this is daybreak asia. i am ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. the first punches have been thrown now xi jinping is poised to match donald trump blow for blow. joining us to discuss the implications, evan lewis, and the smart chief market strategist. -- invest smart chief market strategist. for all the talk of last week being the most important of the year, we did not see a lot of change in the markets. we saw resilience on wall street. you think asia can hold up? are we going to see more of a gap? evan: i think it can. you a listening to what is interesting about what happened last week in terms of where
central-bank policy sits, the boj, the ecb and the fed. emerging markets are still strong. that is the growth profile. looking at what happened last week and what caught my attention is europe is still iffy with regards to pmi. the u.s. is moving nicely but emerging markets are growing at a fairly rapid rate and the forward-looking indicators are still there. you can still the asia doing well. they have well and truly kept pace. anything else outside growth has sort of gone by the wayside. you can see that in europe, australia and canada. the catch, you are starting to see pressure. you see a lot of questions around premiums. you see volatility near the backend. that is starting to see positioning, and you in risk currencytilarly friday night with washington and the announcement of the new trade policies towards china.
but growth assets in the short-te positive. yvonne: what our markets pricing at the moment when it comes to trade? is it more than a skirmish and eventually once i will blink, or have we reached -- one side will blink? or have we reached the point of no return? evan: go back to march 1, when you first saw the start of this, with the elevated tariffs. you can see the markets starting to wake up to the idea that there will be short-term volatility around how washington negotiates with its allies and china. that is there, and you have seen discounts put into it. you have not seen a really strong rally but you should have. places like canada and the aussie. you see the south african rand, places that have exploited to oil, bulk commodities, that are doing well, particularly copper exposure.
they had discounts put in the back of trade policy. it is a question of whether or not you see them as the medium-term issue or short-term volatility issues. i see it as a consistent short-term problem that will glare up every month as the president starts to use his traditional tactics. he has around policy out there but a strong, been giving the deal he wants. there is a discount in markets. i want to bring emerging markets in. you have a chart in the gtv library we can look at. we talk about this. there appears to be a negative as itation in em stocks relates to the u.s. dollar strength. i know you saw this as a short medium turn that em would do fine, but look at the currency pect of things and the knock on effect. evan: you can see on the chart on screen it is what you are alluding to in terms of the next stage of this and what happened last week around the fed and the
fact that there should be strength in the ust. -- usd. we have a slightly hawkish fed that is tightening. we will end up seeing tightening , therefore the u.s. dollar will push higher. these are the ones to watch quite closely. southeast asia in particular, you can turn in here as well. some of it alluding to south korea in terms of what will happen over the medium-term. i think i agree with you. i have starting to move to the idea that there will be medium-term tightening, therefore a slowdown in growth. in the last 24 months it has been astounding. that is my risk off sort of trade, emerging markets as we see coming september, where there is a chance of not just september but december rate rises. u.s. dollar should be in great shape. ecb will move. but as my medium-term view come
december, you have to come to fair value area and look at others as well. ramy: you said you don't see inversion as a recession this time around. hop into the terminal because we are close to that two 10 year spread. you are a rarity. why don't you think so? curvethe front end of the should be moving to where it is just the way it is. the pressure is around the fed. the difference between previous and -- it is an incredible indicator. i am on a contrarian view. the economy in the u.s. is much stronger than it was the last time we saw a recession on it. we know there is geopolitical reasons for pushing the 10 year to where and is and 3.3% is quite high. they are notsons, getting the same level of indicators, besides the fact [indiscernible]
it looks like going towards a point of view that could be neutral. growth is still there, employment is strong, inflation is materializing. that is stronger, and you don't have as much debt issues like we did in 2007 and 2008 also means the ability to withstand a tightening time is much stronger. it will slow things down, but i don't think it will happen at a rapid rate and cause recession. yvonne: evan lucas, thank you, invest smart chief strategist. breaking lines in data from japan, the may trade numbers coming through, missing estimates as opposed to the trade balance, coming in with exports rising 8.1%. that was better than expected of the 7.5%. , rising 14%.ng this is nearly double what economists worry -- were
expecting. that leaves a trade balance in negative territory. we are seeing a deficit of $296.8 billion. we were expecting a swing back into a surplus. we did see early data suggesting imports may have increased faster than exports. this was driven by the entire oil prices, but the outlook for trade is positive with exports given the fact the yen has weakened. it is ok to watch those. not a huge reaction to dollar-yen, but we will watch out for those numbers coming through. why bond fund managers are rethinking investments in malaysia. the weight of the this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪
bond investors turning skittish on malaysia. investigations opened into the 1mdb scandal. it is almost 60% higher for previous estimates. welcome to bloomberg fx reporter joining us for more. tell us about the fallout and how managers are listening their portfolios to reflect these? reporter: it is not great news on that front. bond fund managers are turning more cautious. this is one that recently reduced bond holdings in the nation's debt. equally you have got large funding such as pimco and others who are cautious, and a lot of it boils down to the fiscal and political uncertainty gripping the nation. ramy: what is the top concern with elation debt? -- malaysian debt? comes from theit
budget deficit front as well as political uncti from the very surprising political win last month. trillionng off that $1 one mbd debt would cause 3% of the nation's gdp. that is weighing on iestor' minds. you have got a potential downgrade maybe to the soreign, the nation's sovereign rating, and that is weighing on investors' minds. ramy: are there any fund managers that are seeing this as a buy opportunity? got: absolutely and we have money managers li one bas in london who are pointing to the malaysian economy which is humming along nicely. the government may get things under control in the budget deficit front, and that is prompting this to go a modest overweight on t nation's bonds
right now. ramy: bloomberg fx and rates reporter ruth carson, thank you very much. yvonne: we are counting down to the market open here. japan, south korea and australia, looking like a slow morning, given the likes of hong kong, china, taiwan and indonesia are closed for holidays. the tit-for-tat trade tensions over the weekend. nikkei futures pointing lower .3%, soul futures down .1%. sydney also flat and lackluster, but a lot hanging on when it comes to opec. we are seeing wti crude 1% lower during the asian session leading up to the vienna meeting and if there will be any discussion from raising the output curbs and pduction as well. certainly a big focus today and throughout the week. speaking to morgan stanley's economist. the what is in store for the thai and philippine central
yvonne: 8:00 a.m. here in hong kong. welcome to "daybreak asia." on the test with the u.s. and china on the pre- test on the brink of a trade war. may be delayed with markets closing today. having a battle of attrition. the u.s. president said he is ready to escalate. from bloomberg's global headquarters, i am in new york onre it is passed 8:00 p.m. sunday. opec is divided over boasting output with iran leading
rebellion against saudi arabia's plans. can japan's first startup unicorn make it in the u.s. .? ♪ yvonne: ramy, there is trade today, given the fact we have seen the tit-for-tat between the u.s. and china. talking about it swiftly after the announcement of tariffs on chinese imports. we are seeing markets headed lower here this morning in reaction. in markets that will be affected. hong kong and china missing out here today. ramy: we will see what happens 24 hours from now when they position themselves. $34 billion is what we have been talking about with our guests. it is a big number but a drop in the relative docket in terms of
the overall trade talents. whether thestion is $100 billion number might come into effect after july 6. that is three weeks away and we will see that come to fruition. looking at what happened in the u.s. markets, those did fall just a little bit and we are seeing that trickle into asia-pacific now. yvonne: volumes are quite thin fact that major markets like china, taiwan and indonesia closed. the asx 200 in sydney down a temp of 1%. a lot could be due to energy prices. falling 1% ahead of the meeting in vienna. nikkei 225, we are seeing it down a third of 1%. we are seeing a weaker yen. there are decent trade numbers on exports and imports, beating expectations. imports rising more so than exports due to the trade deficit for the month of may.
we saw a falling off over the weekend when it came to e.m. and asia. i atty much flat on the kosp the moment. ramy: more on this growing talk of a trade war with china quickly retaliating to president trump's announcement to those tariffs on $50 billion worth of chinese imports. fromackenzie joins us beijing. walk us through the sectors that china has targeted. this is the china counterpunch. they are taking aim at the first round of tariffs that will kick in on july the six. agricultural sectors, primarily. soybeans, corn and wheat, but also the automakers. china -- u.s. has a significant autous in terms of exports. china sending over a fraction of the number of cars of the u.s.
exports in that market. look for in impact on tesla. they manufacture all of their cars in the u.s. but they have seen a tick up in sales in china in the last month or so. automakers,german particularly bmw that sends over a lot of cars. soybeans, china imports one third of all soybeans. that is a nether pressure point wee been talking about for some time around trade talks. the second tariffs china is talking about, whether goods would be implemented after the july 6 deadline at some point. that would focus on coal, oil and gas. china has recently said they want increases on u.s. coal and that is a sector trump said he wants to revive. 2017, china imported $400 million worth of coal from the u.s. as isr pressure point,
oil. china is the third largest buyer of u.s. exported oil. the tax from the chinese seem to be pressuring the farm belt states andlso the commodity producers, hoping it will lead to some kind of change in stance from the white house. yvonne: how is this likely to play out from here? have we reached the point where both sides can't exactly back out from these tariffs now? om: there is always a chance between now and july the sixth, that someone pulls the rabbit out of the hat. as this morning was suggested, it is looking unlikely. whether or not trump then goes ahead with his 100 billion dollars worth of tariffs is something th ibeing question . it would raise the bar significantly. in terms of how china would react to that, it is unlikely to match that $100 billion. they might tackle u.s.
investment in china, particularly around corporate layers that are raising those tariffs. it could make life much more difficult for the likes of gm and ford who operate here and it is a substantial chunk of their revenue from the chinese market. , you couldike boeing see airliners here in china cancel or change their boeings. those could really up the ante for the u.s. corporate's operating hereina has a playboos used in these situations. it has used it against south korea, the philippines over geopolitical spats to pressure those companies operating in the chinese markets. that is potentially what we are looking at in terms of how things unfold. china will be helping -- if those tariffs are in pose, that will have an impact on u.s. consumer that may have an inflationary impact and made lead to a change of heart from
president trump. the focus is back to washington and what the response is from this first counterpunch is from china. yvonne: tom mackenzie joining us from beijing. we's get more now on what should be watching as trading is underway in asia. mark is joining us from singapore. we have hong kong/china markets closed for the dragon festival. we are seeing the reaction in the rest of asia being moderate. what is your take on this? mark: we only have smaller markets open. although, japan is trading today. singapore is a place to watch. ite pen mkets that will be affected by trade. if we get a fallout from china /u.s. trade, singapore we will be looking at. they had a bad week last week. it will start on a soft note today. we will get indication from
secondary markets. as you were saying, without hong kong and china we will not get a full picture until later in the week. i enough anxiety from people. you can see performance in the currency market. is a bit stronger against some of the asian currency in early trading. yes, we will get some indications and we also have many futures trading as well. the big picture will not come through until probably later. until new york it's going later in the day. whene: we are seeing banks it comes to the crude price. opec members set for a showdown later onhis we in vienna. how might you think this will play out? mark: what we are hearing is that countries like iran and venezuela will protest about the idea of more oil output. the reality is that saudi arabia and russia are the much bigger producers and they seem to be the ones calling the shots.
it is not -- there is not so much smaller countries can do. what they will be hoping for is that the agreed amount of extra import is maybe not so huge. maybe something less than one million barrels per day. if it is that kind of number pricedt in. the oil market get 1.million barrels, it is probably not priced into the market. we could get more downside on the futures market as the week progresses. ramy: what about the fx markets? singapore dollar may be vulnerable. from the low of this year it has weakened by 3.5% already. rk: that is a good indication -- of where people feel asian currencies are going. we see an impact on emerging markets. we have an election in turkey at the end of the week. the turkish lira has been a drive of emerging markets.
there has been a blowback from that. marketsn the equity have been pulling out of emerging markets in large numbers. singapordoar also flects that. againe coming close singapore, high just above 135 if we go high, it could signal a broader move. possibly it could take the malaysian ringgit with it. could see some weakness spreading in the philippines. we saw a very bad performance from the thai baht last friday. momentum is building up against asian currencies and the singapore dollar is often the leader in where asia tends to go. contagion wee fx should be thinking about. bloomberg's life strategists, mark cranfield. tradingfollow the days on our markets y blog on the bloomberg at mlivgo.
there is commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors so you can find out what is affecting your exports. china remained the largest foreign owner, even with a slight drop in holdings. by $5.8ds decreased billion to 1.1 8 trillion that is appetite for u.s. government debt sng few signs of waning as tensions grow over trade. the second biggest holder, japan's treasuries drop by 12.3 billion to just about one trillion. a runoff owed of the first election since the demobilization ran on aar-old lawyer market campaign for cutting taxes on company profits to simulate a sluggish economy.
he had 54% of vote and will take office. most peacefuls for decades. australia will begin negotiations for the european union on a free-trade agreement and what would be one of the biggest potential deals. trade minister told bloomberg that it will start in brussels next month with australia seeking better access with products. exports of beef, lamb, cheese and rice are constrained by eu tariffs. shocks ofen more big the top nations that the fifa world cup. brazil failed to win their opening match for the first time in 40 years. held 1-0 by switzerland. the world title is off to a rocky start. called the performance negligent. global news, 24 hours a day on
, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. this is bloomberg. week's a p ois opec meeting in vienna with members divided over whether to boost oil production. the philippines, thailand and taiwan will decide monetary policy this week. we will talk to a morgan stanley economist about what to expect. this is bloomberg. ♪
ramy: this is "daybreak asia." yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. they took significant steps to unwind stimulus, but they are not ready to stop supporting their economies yet. take a look at my terminal chart . you see when it comes to the balance sheets of these major central banks. the boj on top, the fed in the
middle and the ecb. bank of america think the biggest central banks are still nearly $12 trillion higher than when the lehman collapsed in 2008. we are still short of that 12.3 trillion peak. certainly there will be a focus as these major central banks are headed to portugal this week. the likes of jay powell, mario draghi, but in asia we on central bank watch. are due to, taiwan release monetary policy updates. an economist. thanks for joining us. let's take a look at the chart. do think it is a really for emerging markets asia central-bank? we may have reached the peak of central money but we are not close to tightening just yet. >> i think the case for morgan
stanley, we have the fed let -- the fed hike three times this year and next year. why fourth-quarter next year policy, we will not be in restricted territory. we estimate it will be 20 basis points above the neutral rate. i think it will be conducive for the asia central banks. not forgetting that this is a repeat of 2015. most countries under my coverage are better than where they were a few years ago. yvonne: what is still the biggest concern for em asia? is it focused on the softer data out of china or trade tensions? look at the global sectors, there are a few things we are watching. e of t has been coming out in the press the past few days. see trade tension escalating it will have tension for the role. even though some countries like thailand, malaysia, singapore,
these are huge exporters. there has been an important part that has growth. we are keeping a close eye on u.s. dollar hits because that would also indicate whether these economists face funding pressures or not. not believeey does that u.s. 10 year yield was estate above 3%. there would be breathing space for the emerging part of the world. we believe that u.s. dollar value is near completion which would be a sigh of relief for this side of the world. bankslet's go through that will have their meetings. one is the philippines. what is your forecast in terms of a possible rate hike? we are expecting philippines to keep policy on hold this thursday. they will resume rate hikes by two times. while there is a difference
between what we think they would do, versus what they should do or would do, if you look at recent policymakers, the main has momentum coming down. that suggests that they don't the rate hike cycle. we believe they should be doing more. that faceseconomy overheating. there is fiscal policy and money trading policies that are loose. while a look at where rates are today, they are in the negative territory. -- they are in the negative territory. the debt of gdp goes up for philippines in the past five years and has been highest amongst the asian countries. i think all of the rate hikes warrants it. have alreadys
moved higher by close to 150 basis points. they have only done one rate hike this year. to a bloomberg survey, those analysts who were polled said they do expect a hike to happen of 25 basis points to 3.5%. one driver is philippine inflation. i want to show you this in the dtv library. we are seeing this -- gtv library. we are seeing this is the fastest rates in asean. this takes it out of the banks 2.4% comfort range. 4.1% for the entire side of the month of the year. what do you think about the future inflation trajectory? are expecting inflation to continue to rise. we do not think it will hit the quarter. if you are expecting it to go to 5%. the thing about the driver, so
far, inflation has been a key driver. growthing the fact that has been very strong, one of the strongest in asia and the philippines. it is headline to the cpi. high indexalso measures. in thethese are philippines. not forgetting the fact that they were performing currency since last year, even for this year. that could be part of inflation. yvonne: i was going to ask you the peso. we heard from the indonesia central bank governor. seen the fact that we have this rally in the peso, to what extent -- what is the threshold for the central bank to tolerate further peso weakness? what theyou look at
have been saying, they are saying it is not the level that they have been watching, more of the pace. it ultimately boils down to how 's decreases boil down. things will be the indicators to watch out for. to the extent of which we are expecting the philippines to grow even wider to average one point 5% gdp. last year was 0.8%. we are expecting cpi to go further higher and part of that is driven by the peso depreciation. it will find himself in a situation where it will come out and it will prompt them to do more in the monetary policy fun. they are expecting to more rate hikes over this year. yvonne: should we expect asia fx to continue to underperform?
to mark and talking he said the singapore dollar is kind of a canary. it reflected in thai baht last week. iti: i think a lot of depends on what you think the u.s. dollar view is. has a u.s.tegy team dollar pair view. they believe that u.s. dollar is on a secular downtrend. given the fiscal deficit. is near it,t u.s. unless they continue to outperform. the asian currencies have projections that asia currencies would be appreciating towards the end of this year. yvonne: really quickly, when it comes to the bank of thailand, it seems to be in a better footing. what is your forecast? deyi: we are expecting think of thailand to keep policy rates on hold.
it is more straightforward. does not havend any hawkish signals or comments. 02 needsy whether be to move tightly depends on what you think the domestic conditions are. we will continue to see growth recovery for this year. the growth hasat en large by exports, not so much by the mastic demands. domestic demands will need to pick up. inflation is not in the case of thailand. even at this point in time, as we speak, headline cps driven by energy, it remains for me in the lower half of the bank of thailand's inflation rates. there are not of demand points. we think that the ot policy will will hold -- bot policy be on hold. we expect them next year when it becomes more evident.
yvonne: a quick check of the business flash headlines. they have bought the remainder of arizona mining at a 53% premium. the australian miner already holds the 17% stake or the cash offer is worth one .3 billion u.s. dollars with a total equity value of $1.6 billion. ramy: australians energy ministers said they will step in if they do not lower charges for consumers after a fall in
"daybreak asia." test yvonne: -- yvonne: it is 8:30 in singapore. ramy: you are watching "daybreak asia." we have some breaking news coming out of singapore right now. nonoil oil exports. 15.5% growth rate again, 15 point 5% growth for may, 2018. april's 11.8ding number. looking at that through the actual survey. estimates blowing get out of the water. the estimate for the survey was 3%. 15.5% for singapore's non-oil domestic exports. good news beating estimates as well as extending april's rise.
yvonne: just got some news saying that noble has requested for a trading halt pending some announcements. is before singapore open spirit take a look at my market board when it comes to gmm functions. trade tensions circulated over the weekend with u.s. and china throwing punches into the mix. we are seeing it right across the board with the nikkei 225 headed lower by 7/10 of 1%. as well.be -- kospi korean won continuing to see weakness. let me move this when it comes to the closed markets. we are seeing stronger u.s. dollar on the backdrop here. also, crude we need to watch. continuing to extend those watch -- those watches down a quarter of 1%. that will be crucial. brent crude at 73 a barrel at
the moment. watching yields. we are seeing a rush into fixed income. .e saw it on wall street european bond markets and futures pointing to loss with hong kong, china, taiwan and indonesia holiday. haslinda joining us from singapore. the global economy is on the verge of a trade war. china's response to president trump's tariffs and $50 billion of their exports. each nation has issued a list of products to be hit. tariffs from july 6 after sales and commodity producers of american heartland after the u.s. focus to curve china's industrial advance. president trump: he is my friend, president xi is a great man and a wonderful guy but at some point we have to stray in a out. we lost $500 billion in trade
deficits last year, we cannot do that. haslinda: chinese state media have accused the trump administration of disgraceful behavior in starting a trade war. they say the u.s. has damage not only interest but the global economic order. it is taking a similar line. thisere are excesses about of that america does not care. they constantly change their mind. china does not want to start a trade war but has to retaliate against america selfish and shortsighted behavior and firmly protect our country and people's interests, and protect globalization and the multilateral world trade order. posted a bigger than expected trade deficit from a, with imports store and 14% on year. forecast of 8%. they beat expectations with an 8.1% gain.
deficit of $5.3 billion where economists expected to .5. international settlement has blasted cryptocurrency, saying they may never become part of mainstream nce. in its annual economic report, they say bitcoin and its siblings are too unstable, consume too much electricity, and suffer too much to have a genuine medium of exchange. they say they could break the internet because love chain requires too much power. day onnews, 24 hours a an and on twitter, powed by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. this is bloomberg. saudi arabia and russia's desire to raise oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day may be dead before it gets started. iraqsays venezuela and will join it in blocking that proposal when opec meets in
venezuela. rainy has more on -- ramy has more. we are seeing oil fall for a day in the uncertainty that is happening as we had to vienna. to my first chart, this is the dashboard in your own bloomberg .al called opec that is not including russia. we can see saudi arabia. 32% terms of production of the total high. we can see the crude production that is happening from opec here it you can see from 2016 when they started to take effect all the way through 2017. we have not hit that since march of 2017 or so. i can go to my second bloomberg terminal chart. as we headconcerns towards later this week, energy ministers is spared capacity.
we know the five-year glut we are talking about over the past eight years or two is gone. 2.8an see that it is at million barrels a day. the iea sas could ll to 2.5 million barrels a day. russia and saudi arabia want 1.5 million up barrels. venezuela as well as iran could see 1.5 million barrels out of production because of economic sanctions as well as the economic crisis happening in venezuela. me on the other side of the screen. i want to bring in russia. russia has been one of the most strident collars to get more production onle. this is russian production in white. the last time that they saw a peak was at the end of 2016. if we did one int 5 million, or 1.8 million, that would get as close to where we were here.
it would not come all the way out. seeingere because we are it in russia. the energy minister said we need to get more oil out. russia is someone who wants to do that. discount what is happening in terms of oil coming out of the u.s. shale. my last bloomberg terminal chart. as oil supply comes on, that will have a waiting affect on eighing effect on prices. a be the end of the third quarter, u.s. shale could exceed russian oil production here as indicated by the red line. we have already surpassed saudi arabia. .xpected to continue 12 million barrels a day making it a net energy exporter. all of these things that opec finance minisrs are trying to
come together and figure out if they can come to an agreement. saudi arabia and russia on one side, as well as iran, venezuela and iraq saying not yet. be a messyks to meeting. let's bring in bloomberg markets reporter. of the in terms significance of this friday's meeting. how important will it be for the oil market? >> these meetings are usually e in fne. this time it is more significant week as there is a possibility of the group ending its output cuts that had cleared a global up prices an propped in more than three years. saudi and russia signaled they would replace pont losses from iran and venezuela. the question remains whether there will be an official agreement. not all opec menus have -- leaders have agreed to raid --
raise output. yvonne: what is the outcome? where theyn the past have had these cases of friction before. most of the time it is saudi arabia that wins out. heesu: basically, saudi wants a smooth output from the cuts. we need u.s. sanctions in iran and that crisis in venezuela will take barrels away from the global market. however, if saudi and russia want to increase output like they said, they will have to convince other members. iraqhas said venezuela and will join it in blocking proposal. it is highly likely there will crash amongst opec members when they meet later this week. investors are expecting it to be contentious and difficult. ony: there is some question
whether they might try to find some compromise below the one million barrel a day mark. to ma character working bridge this gap seems to be saudi's energy minister. what is his track record? oneu: the minister was the who persuaded opec to cut production that began in 2017. when he was appointed in 2016, u.s. shale production had stolen market share and the prices were barely above 45 dollars a barrel. he had a good run. he is facing opposition from , and raising output. investors are saying he has the toughest week ahead of him when the group meets this friday. ramy: a battle on both sides, for sure. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know and to get your date going in today's
yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." i one man in hong kong. ramy: i him ramy inocencio in new york. minister theresa may said the u.k. will develop its own satellite navigation system if the eu bars it from accessing the galileo program after wrecks it. -- brexit. this could also exclude the u.k. from the encrypted navigation service used for government and defense purpose. has been tolderg
that china has agreed to help the hna group raise funds. meeting following an official. regulators behind on government, and the company's biggest creditor to support future bond issues could provide a safety network for the conglomerate that is caring $93 billion in debt. ramy: electric vehicle maker byb is recalling more than 10,000 cars to replace faulty takata airbags. a save the recall covers models made between 2014 and 2017. last month, u.s. transport safety official said, as of the end of last year, 42% affected takata airbags had not been replaced. yvonne: it was a busy day for trade data in asia. saw asia's non-oil experts rising 15.5%. economists were expecting a gain of 3%. japanese exports rose at a healthier rate.
overseas shipments increased by more than expected, 8.1%. it seems like things are looking stellar. but get to our asia economy editor joining us from tokyo. let's talk about the story in japan. jame a of demand from both the u.s. and china for japanese exports in may. this is better than suggested because this is a series of blic holidays coinciding with the first week of may. there are a lot of days when factories were not working and the export data was better than expected. while there was not much increase to europe, you are not the trade affect of war trade tensions being talked about going through to the export data from japan. there was a falloff in steel exports but that was within the range of the volatility.
havethough steel tariffs been applied to japanese exports, it is hard to see it having an affect on what japan sells overseas. ramy: what is the outlook going forward? deficit in maye was bigger than expected. one of the reason was the big jump in imports. it was weaker in that period, but you sign increase in the price of oil and gas. japan is a massive importer of those products. with a weaker currency, and the rising prices, that caused the value for it to rise. it also shows a strong demand from japan for energy, which is a good sign for the economy. you are still seeing good exports and domestic man. ,ven though we had week data
contracting in the first quarter, this is a good sign for japan's economy. second quarter, it is a good sign -- with trade tensions -- trade tariffs being talked about, it is the third-largest of the economy. remember, bloomberg users can interact with the charts shown using gtv . you can rouse charts to catch up on key analysis and save those charts for future references. up next, investors are gearing up for the debut of a unicorn. that is that japanese online marketplace. challenges remain. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." i am yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: i am remy innocence you in new york. -- ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: the first japanese startup to be valued over $1 billion. the successful push into the u.s. would make it a real unicorn. let's get to our asia technology reporter joining us from tokyo this morning. the biggest fed tech ipo in two years. built itself as a fleamarket app, but what does it actually do?
fleamarket is a pretty good way to describe what happens. it is a very casual and easy way to sell used stuff. when the company launched in 2014 in japan, there was plenty of competition from online marketplaces. site,d japan's auction even craigslist was fairly popular. mercari focused on smart phones because their thesis was this untapped pull of people -- pool of people who wanted to sell stuff online and it makes it easy. it is a formula that works. the company had more than $100 million worldwide and 10 million active users. one who has described it to us as, selling on ebay is like putting up a professional storefront. while using mercari is like
selling to our friendly neighbor. yvonne: kind of like a garage sale. overall inperformed the u.s.? pavel: the u.s. has proven to be a tough nut to crack. they have been in the market since 2016. they have 37 million downloads, which is half of what they have in japan. there seems to be a telling to their users. you can see it in the number of their growth portions. 115 is what they have in japan. , there ism really is a lot of competition. there are a long list of ofrtups like offer up, many whom are applying the same smart phone century strategy, which are ebay and craigslist. ramy: i do not know if there has ever been a japanese internet startup that has made it in the u.s.
what is mercari chances of making history? pavel: i can think of one. there is a lot of hopes that mercari will break that trend. they seem to be making all the right moves. the company in 2016, in june, they hire john, who was vice president of mobile product that facebook. and thes leadership past year, they have overhauled thentire dign of the app, adjusting it and fitting get better to american taste. they are also spending heavily on marketing. in the united states, there is not a single company that dominates the space right now. mercari just raised $1 billion spendends -- and plan to -- plans to spend a chunk of it. ramy: can we draw any parallels? prior to the ipo, they
were very gung ho about overseas expansions. they talked big game and expanding in the united states and east, but going through the and they emerged a very different company. they have narrowed therefore this to the for just their focus their four core market -- focus to the four core market. their growth has slowed and they were forced to find other ways to grow. mercari is showing all intentions of giving the united states a fair shot and that is something that will be interesting to see. ramy: maybe they will make history after all. bloomberg's asia technology reporter, pavel. check ofa quick business flash headlines. displays jumped in tokyo after the president told the nikkei news that funds raised in april
have dispelled concern over its financial position. yoshi says the company can fully cover the cost of increasing crystal production this fiscal year. he also has seen sales in the peak demand season, about 30% higher year on year. said toshareholders are be skeptical about the plan to combine european steel operations. bloomberg sources say some of the german firm is a big stakeholder and suggest voting against it at a board meeting as early as next week. they are said to be pushing for an improved deal after a slump in profit made it less attractive. ramy: to the silver screen, disney has staged an incredible combat posting the best ever opening for an animated film. that would be "incredible's 2" collecting $180 million, to blow the $130low pass
"dori" inecord made by response to its recent star wars release. yvonne: what are you watching? rishaad: we are going to be detail.about it in more he thinks what has happened here is that we have moved from left to reality and the american companies are finally waking up to what this could cost them. the pressures will be upon them. he will be along just -- in just over in our. trade will be one of those things. opec meeting is front and center. michael later on. looking at the contentious meeting with the u.s. pressurizing. opec to increase output.
and donald trump blaming them and he expresses his displeasure. analyst ofal jpmorgan and the spat between the singapore exchange. and howooking at that that pla out. what is at stake and can they come to some sort of resolution? he will be along in about 40 minutes from now. there we have it. that is a flavor of what is coming up for the next couple of hours. ramy: let's do a quick look at how markets are trading right now on this monday morning in asia pacific. take a look at the nikkei down 6/10 of a percent. down a 10th of a percent. asx 200 in australia up a 10th of a percent. japan, we got the data of import
and export data coming in higher than expected from both exports year on year. an expected versus a percent. there are trade tension fears rippling from the u.s. into asia-pacific right now. yvonne: pretty lackluster when it comes to singapore futures, and changed at the moment. better change numbers coming through in the lion city. it seems like a trade sector is on a healthy clip in light of the trade anxiety's between the u.s. and china. malaysia, you can see a light of 1% low at the opening in kuala lumpur. markets coverage continues, next. ♪
>> you are looking at the first shot of a global trade war. effects may be delayed with mainland markets closed. we have xi jinping poised to go blow for blow with donald trump. the u.s. president says he's willing to escalate. they are now suffering the the 2008xit this sense meltdown. in hong kong, i am rishaad salamat. haidi: in sydney, i'm haidi lun. coming up, oil sliding ahead of what could be a fiery opec meeting with iran leading something of a rebellion. this