tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg June 18, 2018 1:00pm-3:30pm EDT
pres. trump: the united states will not be a migrant camp, and it will not be a refugee holding facility. it won't be. you look at what is happening in europe, what is happening in other places, we can't allow that to happen to the united states. not on my watch. homeland security secretary kirstjen nielsen also discussed the policy, telling a law enforcement congress in new orleans that order agents are not the rule by separating some children from their parents. iraqi shiite forces and a syria are accusing the united states of targeting their troops inside syria with an airstrike. the iraqi group known as popular mobilization forces says u.s. aircraft fired two missiles sunday at a group of fighters deployed along the iraq-syria border to prevent reaches by islamic state. the u.s. denies the charge. there is talk of a compromise in
the bottle over raising opec oil production. bloomberg has learned that the cartel is discussing an increase of up to 600,000 barrels a day over the next few days. iran does not want any increase at all come up but there is hope that it may go for a modest boost. inc meet -- meets this week vienna. hurricane maria which devon -- devastated puerto rico is being blamed on what doctors say is an alarming jump in the number of asthma cases on the island. the chronic lung diseases caused by such things as pollution, airborne mold, and policy and -- pollen, all of which have increased wallowing the storm. -- following the storm. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: it is 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. scarlet: i'm shery ahn.
welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the stories on the bloomberg and around the world. we are following this. president trump is betting beijing will blink first in the showdown over tariffs. that is far from a sure think it we will explore how a trade war could play out. let the opec games begin. iran talks about blocking a deal and russia wants more production. we have the latest. and, columbia alexa new elects a new president. all that in the next 30 minutes.
abigail doolittle is with us halfway into the trading day already and things are looking slightly better. abigail: you are we are looking at the clients for the major averages. the dow had been down more than 1%. the tech heavy nasdaq up the tech heavy nasdaq up elbows down 9/10 of 1%. the losses moderated in a big way. nonetheless, the dow is still down 6/10 of 1% on pace for its worst day of the month. this follows last week's decline of more than 1%. the dow's worst week since march 23. all of this on concerns of a potential trade were between the u.s. and china. this is taking a hit on these industrials. boeing, caterpillar, bowing down a tenths of 1%. its fifth down day and a row. dear and caterpillar down for days in a row. dear losing 6% over that time period. investors worried about the double whammy of demand shrinking, if there is a trade war. these companies have been hit by the metals tariffs in terms of input cost rising. investors not liking it.
if we take a look at the technicals, it may suggest more weakness could be ahead. you can view this one year chart of the dow and the bloomberg using the gtv function. we see a beautiful uptrend last year where the dow was above its moving averages, telling you the buyers were much in control. this year's volatility and a number of concerns including these trade war possibilities, but what i would like to point out is the dow moving back down toward its 50 day moving average in blue. that entire area of congestion over the last two weeks appears it may be setting up for an equal move down, perhaps toward the 200 day moving average. if that happens come a would suggest there is more uncertainty ahead. oil not being affected. let's take a look at brent crude on the day. we will see a nice rally, up 1.8 percent per recovery from a decline earlier in the day. this has much to do on what smart -- on what mark crumpton was talking about, opec may be offering is a broad-based. it is more modest on what had been anticipated to appease
iran. we do have this gain and it does -- it is helping energy complexes we take a look at these, chevron, eog resources, and i am mobile. these are the big point boosts for the energy sections. sectors. this is helping to offset the losses we are seeing in other sectors, including telecom. vonnie: thank you. shery: beijing and washington locked in a multibillion-dollar dispute. it is not a trade war yet. but could it be one soon? former secretary of congress told bloomberg it already is. aboutple are talking whether we are going to be at a trade war, whether a trade war is coming. make no doubt, the trade war is here. we are in a trade war. i'm surprised that it has taken the market so long to recognize that. shery: how is this going to shake up? the head of welcome
research strategy and operations at the eurasia group from washington. thank you for your time. despite what he says, the u.s. isn't immediately slapping those tariffs on chinese goods. do you expect in a compromise before july 6? >> that is the key question. we have three weeks to see whether a deal could be reached between china and the u.s.. at this point, our call is that such a deal before those tariffs are implemented is highly unlikely. i merely for two reasons. the first is that the gap between the u.s. and china, what washington is asking for and what to beijing is willing to compromise on is far too wide for any meaningful deal to be reached in the next three weeks. the second is that both sides have incentives to show strength at this time. and have very little incentive to come running back to the negotiating table. on the u.s. side in particular,
there seems to be a belief within the u.s. administration that the chinese will not be ready to make any meaningful concessions, unless there is at least a first round of tariffs that are implemented. we fully expect those tariffs to be rolled out around the sixth of july. vonnie: that means nothing between nine -- now and the sixth. how long before there is some kind of response or another move on the part of the u.s. or china? meredith: this is also a key question. how long can we expect this dispute to continue? a correction here, we do believe there will be an additional move between now and the sixth of july. this will be the 30th of june of rollout investment restrictions against the chinese. this is a further upping of the anti-in this trade confrontation. that will make it difficult for xi jinping to have a political will or shall the political will to come back to the negotiating table for fear of looking week. -- weak.
the key is to watch the channels of communication at the top between president trump and president xi jinping. we think this is critical to the movement of this trade confrontation to any sort of negotiating table. the question is, when? bethink it is going to difficult for there to be that kind of negotiation to happen. maybe even the summer. if you find that meaningful negotiations are not happening, we are getting close to september, that his campaign season here in the u.s.. that is also the political season in china. in the u.s. has our midterms in november, china has its party planning in october. neither side will be in a political position to make any kind of compromises before those two events take place. shery: it will hurt the u.s. more because we are expecting the european union to apply u.s. goods, especially on those suburban motorbike tariffs. it could be applied. how much is the eu being heard
right now by the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the u.s., and what would happen if they retaliate? meredith: i think the key here to watch is not so much the steel and aluminum tariffs. but really if the u.s. does move forward with automotive tariffs. this is going to hurt in terms of volumes, so much more that the trade relationship with key trade allies, such as germany. we are also watching to see what happens with japan as well. you are right that the u.s. is going to come under multiple points of pressure, not just with the trade competition with the u.s., but at a time when the u.s. should be working with other trade allies to put pressure on to china. the u.s. has opened up a multi-front trade confrontation with those very allies who support -- who will be critical and necessary to compel china to make the very changes to its market access and industrial policies that washington is seeking. let me ask youe: about not. . a couple days ago, there was a summit.
suddenly it is not the top story anymore. yesterday, the president did defend what he had done and said the u.s. had done a lot out of the summit and had not given away anything. what is next there? followingwe expect the summit in singapore, we expect that summit was enough for both sides to be able to kick off negotiations to see what can be done to take steps to denuclearize north korea. this is where the real work against. and the hard work begins. despite the u.s. putting its best foot forward with officials such as ambassador to the philippines and lead north korean negotiator who is excellent, as well as other key points in the administration, they are aware this will be an exceptionally difficult task to compel north korea to give up meaningful parts of its nuclear program. to finish that thought, while we are confident you will see 12 months of negotiations, we are
of the mind that it is very unlikely the u.s. will be successful and fully denuclearizing north korea. it will be a matter of time before those meaningful talks break down, if the u.s. president is indeed fully committed to full complete, verifiable denuclearization of north korea. sayy: i was just going to that china is pulling the strings of those negotiations. that is going to affect the trade negotiation dynamics. meredith, thank you for your time. vonnie: breaking news now, shares are spiking up, almost -- this iscompany according to sources to bloomberg. it comes three months after four shareaid they believed have -- shareholders believed it remained as a standalone company.
♪ shery: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm shery ahn. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. opec's summit this week is taking up its toughest meeting in years. members are discussing an agreement that would see an oil production increase between 3000 and 600,000 barrels over the next few months. this is according to people briefed with the talks. joining us is david marino who has been following the developments. david, it will be a fractious meeting, no doubt. but will opec fracture? david: what is fracture?
it would not be the first time where opec and of some of the members have not agreed at the end. there have been cases where a communique has gone out without everyone on it. there have been cases where saudi arabia has put out its own statement and gone its own way. if there were a fracture, it would not be the first time, not even the first time in the last 20 years. it is definite -- it definitely has happened before. shery: what could a compromise look like? weid: you are seeing talks are seeing, 600,000, that is far below what russia wants. they are saying 1.5 million. iran is saying zero. iran and venezuela, neither of them want either cut. perhaps this is what the compromise may look like at the end. we still have a long week to go. vonnie: what is the goal? david: the goal is to support prices, stabilize the market without supporting prices too much. they have been successful.
a wild card been venezuela. the production since late 2015 come early 2016, down by one million barrels a day. a lot of that has come in the last year, year and a half. that was maybe not something they planned on when the supply country came in. the gtv go library showing you capacity and opec has dropped. tell us about not only the supply situation but also the demand situation as we move forward in the year. david: demand is running strong. the economy globally has been strong. on opecs more pressure to keep a certain number of barrels going to but also to make sure there's enough supply to add more. you kind of want to dribble it out. they won a befitting one million barrels a day or 500,000 barrels a day tomorrow. even if they were to add a larger number than the 300,000 to 600,000 we have been hearing, that would be overtime. vonnie: analysts are saying saudi arabia, and kuwait will
add a combined half a million barrels, russia may be 200,000 more. that may be a compromise. david: that is possible. something along those lines. in all may depend on who was going to do what in the end. there is probably going to be a lot of fine print as to where the actual increase has come from. there is a certain number of countries who have the spare capacity to add. every time you add more barrels, you have lest spare capacity. they have to keep that in mind. vonnie: how are traders trading this? it feels like wti moved up a little bit, it is still as large as it was. there hasn't been a change of any dramatic capacity in the last couple of weeks. david: i think it is a bit of weight and see. always ahead of these meetings, there are rumors. there is a bit of repositioning to we saw speculators get more election on oil -- more bullish on oil. do people want to go all in on it when you could see a larger
amount get added to the market? there is always the question of, will the producers cheat? how much will they cheat? you one-off i met over a wild. it could be a couple months before you get any data on what the production is. shery: how does president trump complicated matters? given his pressure on the opec. david: that is another factor opec has to deal with. you have a u.s. president who highcly is rallying about oil prices and privately asking saudi arabia to put more on the market. vonnie: david marina, obviously we will keep an eye on this is the meeting comes up here that is david marina. will have special coverage beginning june 20. shery: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, and look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. the world's top advertiser doctor and gamble wants women to produce half of its ads by 2023,
about one in 10 of the companies absorb produced by women today. as part of a marketing strategy august on empowering women. p&g is partnering with queen latifah, katie couric, and the initiative which requires at least one woman director be included among the final candidates to produce its commercials. saysba's jack ma's malaysia it inspires him. the company opened an office and will launch malaysia week in july, an event that will highlight over 50 malaysia brands across alibaba's platform. the prime minister has agreed to use alibaba's technology to help young people in the country. that is your business flash update. still ahead -- what: still ahead, more on the selection means for columbia next. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪
♪ shery: -- vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. shery: i'm shery ahn. colombia has elected a new president. he defeated former fighter and go attend mayor with 54% of the votes. joining us with more is bloomberg news reporter vivianne rodrigues. yvonne lucas is supposed to be market friendly. he is supposed to be however, at the same time, he was against the peace treaty. are we going to see an effect on the supposed peace dividends? vivianne: he is supposed -- proposed portions of the deal. it is not that he is against peace, but he says the deal has been too lenient, he doesn't want to see people who he says has blood on their hands feeding on columbia congress. we can expect him trying to leave portions of that agreement. ablee: how fast will he be
to make some of the changes he wants in relation to markets? vivianne: that seems a little more easy because it has not been ratified by congress. one of his keyport -- points -- key points, he wants to bring corporate taxes down. you want to make it more business friendly in terms of business relations we have -- the probably going to get momentum. this has been a decisive victory for him. he will try probably to move fast on market friendly reform. shery: you talked about the corporate taxes per at what happens then to their precarious hold on their investment grade credit rating? vivianne: that is a tricky issue. columbia has challenges. the economy needs to grow a little faster. they have an immigrant crisis brewing within venezuela. unfortunately, it is increasing again. the question is how to boost growth without spending a lot of money and letting that balloon suddenly? vonnie: how do relations with the united states change?
is very closely tied to marco rubio, for example. vivianne: it remains to be seen. big ally of been a the united states and the war against drugs in latin america. obviously, he has strong positions about a portion of the peace agreement. cocaine production is on the rise again. definitely, there will be some sort of dialogue between columbia and the united states, if they are to keep a united front on the war against drugs. shery: talking about latin america, we have to address what is happening in argentina. we saw the finance minister become the governor of the central bank. is that going to bring some sort of solution to what is happening with their crisis? vivianne: we have seen a major shakeup in the argentine central bank. last week. thes now the head of central bank. nicolas do hot me centralizes the economy and the finance ministry. the question is, this is a very challenging time for argentina.
not only it has vulnerability inside the country, just all emerging markets are under pressure right now. markets really like him. credibility.of he comes from jpmorgan, deutsche bank, he negotiated the holdout -- depth situation with argentina. he comes with goodwill. it is quite a difficult task. vonnie: how long will markets give argentina? there has been a lot of volatility. how much cash is fleeing? vivianne: they do have the 50 billion credit line with the fund. they vote this week. they probably are going to disperse and take some of this money pretty quickly. for obviously is good argentina. markets are not doing very well. most of argentine assets are in -- are under pressure. what i think we need to see is very steady hand and very coordinated actions between the central bank and the presidency in terms of comprehensive reforms for argentina. shery: how much did that imf credit line help? vivianne: it is good to know you
have a credit line. this means the country is not going to suddenly run out of money. it provides a good cushion. the question now is how does this -- how do disbursements will be made? will this go into -- will this help the budget? there is still a lot of lingering questions. vonnie: exactly. so much fragility and latin america. you don't want a domino effect. our thanks to bloomberg news latin america economy and government reporter vivianne rodrigues. trade fears weighing on u.s. equities as the u.s. and china escalate their detection missed standoff. shery will be joined by amanda lang from toronto. this is bloomberg. ♪ what's a gig of data?
that's why xfinity mobile lets you pay for data one gig at a time. and with millions of wifi hotspots included, you'll pay less for data. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call or visit a store today. mark: i am mark ronson with first word news. homeland security secretary kiersten says border patrol agents are not being cruel by separating some children from the parents at the border.
she says they are simply enforcing our nation proxies immigration laws. atretary nilsson spoke today the national sheriffs association conference in new orleans. >> we do not have the luxury of pretending that all individuals coming to the country as a amily unit are in fact family. we have to do our job. we will not apologize for doing our job. mark: she says agents will no longer look the other way when cross the border illegally. separated from cross the border illegally. their families over six weeks. chairman angela merkel made a concession to a coalition partner that eases over immigration. a deadline to win an agreement on a tougher policy. the head of the christian social wants a deal with the eu governments that would make it
easier to return migrants to where they were first registered. the european union and poland are not reporting any progress. says the changes file a democratic standards. corrupt and unaccountable court system. between the two create us. and closing ceremonies of the upcoming asian games. the north korea and south korea agreed in the coming months. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
♪ shery ahn: live from bloomberg world headquarters. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. the trade standoff between china and the u.s. continues. the ecb president mario draghi is delivering opening marks at the ecb forum on central banking in portugal. what investors are listening for. then, could bitcoin break the internet? a supervisor races concerns about cryptocurrency and the potential to cripple our infrastructure.
of major averages. the dow falling as the trade standoff between the u.s. and china continue. the s&p 500 down .3%. one sector rising as energy shares. the s&p 500we get the global pos speaking as well, we have the reaction from the emerging market. for a fifth day of losses, a fourth day of losses, and it is interesting to see that despite the fact that e.m. fundamentals have improved, global financial conditions are tightening as large central banks reduce their balance sheet, that would be pushing up interests, so that is having an impact on emerging economies. we are seeing investors pulling out, solid prospects for growth and financing.
it looks as though investors are looking for the less risk that they can find, having an effect on the u.s. dollar entering this week continuing its upward trajectory. -- no signs of slowing against the canadian dollar. a reason you might see enthusiasm for the u.s. markets is that the s&p 500 companies are raising dividends at a pace extremely strong. see year to date 2018, 60 1% higher than this time last year. net gains and dividends, $25.5 billion delivered to shareholders. for more on what is happening in north america and in an urge -- in emerging markets, and equity strategist joins us. let's start with what appears to be a flight from risk to safety. is that likely to continue or is there a bit of a knee-jerk
reaction in terms of emerging markets? be interesting to see what happened on the trade issue. the markets are finally stepped in -- stepping away from wearing about every tweet an announcement on the trade issue, issueiday became a bigger but the initial selloff, the market rallied back here and i was wondering, maybe it had to do with a big expiration on friday but futures were down 18 points on the s&p futures. the market opened and it is rallying back. down about six points or so. people want to see if things come to a head. a lot of the new tariffs will be implemented in a few weeks in early july. there is a complacency moving on the markets. on the dollar, that is where my biggest concern is with emerging markets.
classic finally seems to sink into the markets that something may actually go really wrong in trade? we hadn't seen any reactions so before.e had >> it is a combination of things. what is going on in the u.s. economy, the economic data has been straight -- quite strong lately. it is doing just the opposite. nobody is calling for a recession in these areas. market.ey into the bond now -- 10 year yield hasn't broken to the upside because of more money. i think it is a concern about
trade and also the u.s. economy, no longer the case. >> how do you recommend positioning in the market. and when, if we will get stockpicking. still goingt could to the market for the nasdaq. that is on a short-term basis as we move to the end of the second quarter. longer-term, i am more concerned. it hasn't had a negative impact. in him as never has an immediate impact. it usually takes a year or more.
they blew up back in february. emerging markets, european bank , it is starting to slow over to the other sides of the marketplace. people look at stocks and you talked about dividends recently. don't look about people with good or increasing dividends. ofing a long-term record increasing the different dividends on a consistent basis. that is where you will play defense but still participate on .ny further upside >> one thing gaining ground is the energy sector. he wti gaining ground. a lot of it will depend on what happens with the opec meeting. >> i think it will create
opportunities because even though we have had a nice rally if oil -- recently, that is key support. that could cause some problems. too many people and too many countries and the price of oil is higher including the united states. i know donald trump is putting pressure on them. the oil sector is one of the best areas that he could produce jobs in the next couple of years. i do not see him wanting to go down either.
shery ahn: this is bloomberg markets. amanda: i am amanda lang. meeting with other bankers in portugal this week for the european forum. they announced a halt by the end of the year, and that is the euro era exiting years and years of massive monetary support. joining us now is peter. great to have you. there is the end of quantitative easing. happening today, fresh news funds.ight seek ecb small thing called a trade were going on. is the meaning.
inevitably, they have become linked. angela merkel's company is in danger with the christian socialist union, the partner, threatening to break up over migration policy in the area. so mario draghi cannot help but collectsng about that we saw the decision with mario given that his comments were received as dovish, was he -- will we see a boost just because he will have to emphasize the policy in 2018, very different from 2017. >> the markets digest what happened last week.
draghi will probably not make any big news. it is a policy conference and .eople get together for ideas the remarks we're getting any moment, the level of dozen trees, we might see more on wednesday. the central bankers are meeting to have an open-ended conversation and you never know what will come out of something like that. for the federal reserve, new suggestions from the imf, a more is there a subject of about where they stand relative to upcoming growth? >> obviously, that is the topic of the day when it comes to the central bank.
installedams, newly first day on the job president of the federal reserve bank of speaking this afternoon. he will not be talking about monetary policy but he is getting his feet wet and one thing he said today is transparency and openness are crucial for him, especially if he disagrees with other members of the marketing committee, he will go out of his way to explain his thinking. >> something america mentioned
management. three months ago, a real estate investment trusts said shareholders would be better off if she remained a standalone company. the potential price falls in the -- $.5. .5-.5 in germany, a high profile arrest in the investigations. prosecutors say he is arrested because of concern he might tamper with evidence. -- interimearned ceo. high after arriving at 59% in 2018. some analysts are growing -- growing more bullish for market share in the higher margins. chips using so-called seven nanometer technology that will put it on an equal footing with
-- in competition with rival intel. that is your update. >> the other side of the bitcoin. the banks released a lighting economic report that said the cryptocurrency suffers from a range of shortcomings. most don't like cryptocurrencies but some of the articles against including sheer processing power needed to transact, which would shut down the internet, is pretty bearish for cryptocurrencies p are what you make of the report? i can tell you the bears on cryptocurrencies added fuel to the fire that they are not ready for prime time. some of the arguments is that the environmental footprint of coins could could be a
disaster. mining bitcoin alone rate coins- requires the equipment of the electricity uses of switzerland. they point out there is opportunity for frog using bitcoins. is theguments making nature of this ledger, this transaction system, means that trust could be lost. that is the argument made in favor of the blockchain that crypto in currencies run on. the ledges -- the ledger makes it safer. the central bank for central banks. now from carlos, former secretary on trade. are talking about whether we are going to be in the trade war and whether the trade war is coming. make no doubt the trade war is here. we're in a trade war.
has taken the it market so long to recognize that. willhas started and it continue with tariffs on aluminum steel. announced toill be put in place on july 6. that is another key date and we are into this. this has started. how we to think about get out of a trade war once we have started. ,> how would you get out of it let's go right there. >> there are a couple of scenarios. i doubt we will see a ceremony where someone signs away their trade policy. i believe there needs to be a discussion about how different systems can coexist. we have a different system than china. and aof similarities
difference in how they approach the economy. they will have to figure out a way of coexisting in harmony together in the future instead to make china look like the u.s. or the u.s. look like china. challenge.e a big will work in favor of china in the sense that we say look, we recognize we have different systems here. people people have said president trump comes out hard and comes out swinging and it is a negotiation tactic. can we call that a negotiating tactic anymore or has it evolved into something completely different? >> there are tactics being played and that will continue. the tariffs on steel and aluminum, those are real. the investigation on autos, that
is real p are tariffs on july 6, that is real. think the president has to be careful on these tactics because at some point, if he pushes forward and backs down, he is going to lose credibility, the u.s. will lose credibility. every move is potentially treacherous. we need to be very careful. started and will expand beyond trade and will go to the investment arena. where we could invest with china and the chinese could invest with the u.s. good for our economy or the world economy. >> have you put on your other hat as the ceo of a major global corporation? what do you do? >> right now, what we're telling clients is look, the patient. -- be patient.
don't panic, don't make a strategic move if you don't have too. there may be industries where they have to move around supply , buts built over the years some industries where you can where you can still not tactical decisions that make big moves that will change the way you operate for the --ure, >> carlos speaking to bloomberg earlier. onery special interview bloomberg tv and radio. lloyd blankfein it and ceo will be on the network at 12:00 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ we are live in new york over the next hour. here top stories around the world. intensifying trade tensions around the world once again. a bit under strain but there are compromises in the work spirit and currencies, germany's turmoilintensifying trade tensis .round the we will explore it in today's charting futures. u.s. markets are closing in two hours. julie hyman keeping track of all the red arrows. areidn the case, small caps outperforming. you were right, intraday for the
russell 2000. today thisuch ,eflects concerns portrayed that we'll hit international focused companies more so than domestically oriented, which tend to be small caps. is interesting is it is not just u.s. based small caps outperforming. it is true globally. take a look here, the ftse index of small caps not just u.s. based small caps outperforming. globally versus the ftse global large-cap index. doesn't have to do a but with
specific stories. an experimental drug for spinal muscular atrophy. got the treatment. biogen makes a competing drug that is trading lower today. by -- $1.37 billion. it is a premium over where the company was trading october. an approach to the company, rent central -- rent-a-center shares up. we are some strength in large caps. stocks bounce back from the lows they set earlier this morning. large-cap tech still resistant to selling here. we see oil bounce today as we got a reduction use that was not as high as some estimates out there, they are benefiting from
that. that limits the losses particularly looking at the nasdaq, s&p 500. they look at it coin today, lower once again. they look at it coin today, lower onceinteresting clash of s today. international settlement said was noty that bitcoin ready for prime time. cannot with a critical long report. a virtual currency license let state buyin new york and sell bitcoin. that came out and bitcoin went up as well. mark: as policies come under criticism from democrats and republicans, president trump is defending the action. president trump: the united states will not be a migrant camp.
and it will not be a refugee holding facility. it won't be. at what is happening in europe and other places, we can't allow that to happen to the united states, not a my watch. mark: the homeland security secretary also discussed policy, a conference in new orleans that border agents are children separating from their parents. meanwhile, urging the trump administration to end its zero-tolerance policy. >> american association of pediatrics called this cool practice government sanctioned child abuse which may cause irreparable harm was lifelong consequences. that any student would seek to deter parents by inflicting such abuse on children is unconscionable.
mark: he is deeply concerned about policies that punish children for the parents of their at -- actions of the parents. he brexit legislation in parliament. lawmakers approved an amendment to force them back to the negotiating table. the deal will now return to the house of commons on wednesday for what is expected to be an extremely close vote that could determine the outcome of talks. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julia: crude comeback. oil raising two weeks of losses in vienna. the cartel is discussing a compromise for an additional 300-600 barrels per day versus
$1.5 million hike. , david,us for more great to have the with us. to give clarity, 1.5 million barrels the russians initially proposed is what many analysts expect it would be pulled out of the market as a result of the crisis and the nuclear deal, is that right? >> that was in the ballpark of investments arranged around there. russia's look for that end of number. what is being discussed is something very short of that. >> that was a big stream, russia proposing 1.5 million barrels .er day what appeared to not have been priced in? >> estimates of up to one million, 1,000,000.2. if we are to 300,000 to 600,000, it is on the low end of the range. >> why is that the compromise? >> it is hard to tell.
he got to the venezuela production out of the market. a big wild card that cannot be what they were expecting limited the -- did this a year-and-a-half ago. but they also have to do with iran, which wants nothing. there is a lot of back and forth and squabbling going on. and intense meeting now. >> a critical meeting as well. how do they get these two countries of a buy and where can they see with fetus? off --e voicing >> there is history with a statement of opec or most of and: with the statement leaving out iran about two decades ago who not join into this statement. it does not make for a happy
meeting and it does not make for a comfortable organization. >> it is a contrast to what we had seen in the last couple of years. reducing reduction. right now, they're working together. that is quite interesting. >> you have to get the consensus from 13 nations. 20, 25? i cannot imagine what the meeting would look like. >> talk about the u.s.'s role, because it is not a member of opec obvious week. lowering gasoline prices especially in the lead up to the midterm elections. planting thebeen
numbers, is that influence being felt today or is the work done? >> if you talked to saudi arabia , about a million barrels per day. this is an election year. it will be pressure in place. opec and -- and russia, they want prices higher and are cognizant that if you get prices too high too fast, you get this demand. if you hurt mobile demand, if you throw the economy into a recession, and you are hurting yourself in the long-term. they are aware that in the u.s. is a big customer as well as a big producer. without being at the table, there is influence. >> there you go. 25 members. >> thank you so much. more on this in an hour with the chief economist of bp. coming up, is there a trade war on the horizon or has already arrived? we will hear from the
india, the philippines, south korea, taiwan, and thailand, at the fastest pace since 2008. despite a strong first quarter and prospects for solid growth, some analysts say the federal is tightening and trade issues are now overshadowing. that is the business flash update. >> a multi-billion-dollar dispute. could it be one soon? carlos weeden earlier on bloomberg. >> people are talking about whether we are going to be in a trade war and if the trade war is coming. war is doubt the trade here. we are in a trade war. i am surprised it has taken the markets so long to recognize that. but you know, this has started and it will continue. we have tariffs on aluminum and steel. the tariffs will be announced,
specifically put in place on july 6. that is another key date. this has started. we need to think about how you get out of a trade were once you start it? >> how would you get out of it? what would you do? there were a couple of scenarios. i doubt we were going to see a surrender ceremony worse someone signs away their trade policy. abelieve there needs to be discussion about how systems, different systems, can coexist. we have a different systems in china, a lot of similarities but there is a difference in how they approached the economy. we will have to figure out a way of coexisting in harmony together in the future, instead of trying to make china look like the u.s. or the u.s. look at china.
that is going to be the big challenge. ironically, that could end up working in favor of china and the sense that look, we recognize we have two different systems. >> a lot of rhetoric has been made that these are just the opening bid. president trump comes out hard and swinging and it is really a negotiation tax it. call that a negotiating tactic anymore or has it evolved into something completely different? beingre are still tactics played and that will continue. the tariffs on steel and aluminum are real. in investigation going on autos, that is real or tariffs come july 6. that is real. the president has to be very careful on these tactics. at some point, if he pushes down, he willcks
lose credibility and the u.s. will lose credibility. every move is potentially treacherous. we need to be very careful. to started and it will expand , where we can invest in china and the chinese can invest in the u.s. it is not good for our economy or the world economy. let'sen that reality, have you put on your other former had as ceo of a major global corporation. what do you do? now, depending on the industry we are in, what we're telling is look, be patient as much as you can be. do not panic. do not make a strategic move if you don't have to. there may be industries where you have to start moving around supply chain spilled over many years.
some industries, you can still wait it out, you can still make it -- some tactical decisions but not make big moves that change the way you operate for the future. as you mentioned, things are changing every week. permanent.ot be i think companies that can stick benefit.ll have a if you have to move, move now. but i would prefer a plan b and wait as long as possible. that was carlos speaking earlier on bloomberg. coming up, and investment guide to escalating trade tensions. we speak with deputy global cio next and this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: stocks sliding around the world. sliding a little bit in the u.s. sessions. challengeuest in the -- a more selective and defensive approach may be required. the deathly by global cio, great to have you with us. we supported other jobs as -- how does that reflect in the portfolio? >> 2018 will always be a bit of a transition year. areas,y policy, and some and skin -- it is getting tighter. the earnings growth persists, thought it would be a bit of a challenge. one thing we had looked at his how do you retain and exposure
to equities in a way that gives you a little more upside and does not suggest -- subject you to the downside is much. >> we see a lot of signs but given that we had tax cut that's an of last year, it is too early to say that we have seen evidence of tax cuts on company's profits in the way they spend their cash and tax savings. those tax cuts extend the business cycle or the economic cycle and make it so the late cycle can last longer than what it does? thet has been one of reasons we have been more enthusiastic about the u.s. versus other geographies. we see other companies following through on infrastructure. increases, the highest and seven years. we do not yet worry about inflation here. butfractures are building
we have seen signs for their ability to automate on which labor. placenk the u.s. is one where we have a bit more in place and that is an area we are focused on. >> what about small caps, a trade in terms of exact what you are saying with a u.s. to -- toestic safety, but it plays some of the border risks and the trade concerns we see out there. >> absolutely. small caps benefited difference -- disproportionately from tax cuts because they had a higher real life rate going into the tax law changes. bit more insulated from some dynamics around trade. about financials were it is more domestically focused fair at we think some of the large caps are better going forward. favoring large caps, i.t.,e, and areas on
outside growth. >> the striking thing about q1, whatdifficulty in hiring, you are seeing in the speed upon which automation is in and doctored and that is shocked in the companies themselves at how easy it is. bit more detail on the conversations and you can tell that to wages and to employment pictures because this is just fascinating. >> there are areas where even a few years ago it be unthinkable to integrate technology. so you walk into a restaurant once upon a time, you this we interface with a host and then you had someone take your order and bring your food. now especially the fast casual restaurants are able to use some sort of technology.
interact thingn with other individuals. places like that where even a few years ago, and it has been unthinkable. in terms of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and things like diagnostics, on the other activities that are complex, they are repeatable and programmable, all of a sudden, for the labor.g >> it is a trend that will take years to play out. i want to ask about a catalyst we saw an effect in 2018, the weak u.s. dollar. it helped u.s. profits and hurt growth overseas particularly in europe and emerging markets. is the weaknt dollar story subsiding after the gains we have seen in the last couple of months? itit remains to be seen to we believe the dollar should not strike them much from here because we think it is actually a place where it is at a better equilibrium.
there are emerging markets that are relatively undervalued that should rally from here. look at europe, for example. we pared back the overweight for europe and we are underweight for the first time in a couple of years. where you would still see dollars strength at a relative basis but we do nothing you will see a dollar breakout. >> what about for emerging markets? some of them have high deficits struggling in this environment, and environment here as well. you have the energy price kicker as well for this. how do we separate this out and how do you invest at this moment? >> very selectively. certainly on equities side, there are areas that we are not really favoring for look at russia and brazil and turkey and argentina,at -- places with idiosyncratic risk. a broad measure, places like china, especially information
technology, we still like india and select companies in malaysia and elsewhere. we have been favoring local currency bets, and that is a couple of things. first and foremost, higher yields. and better quality and less success stability. being selective and making sure you're looking at risk reward trade-offs and picking your spot aired >> selective and defensive are the keywords. thank you. coming up, crude come back. we speak to a chief economist about his death for oil. $.80 per barrel, this is bloomberg. ♪ two, down, back up!
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the currency markets, we are taking a closer look at the euro against the dollar. here's a five day chart of the euro against the dollar. look at that nosedive. -- at one point last week it was in the worst point of the year, but the question here is was technical damage done last week on the selling action? let's take a look at the chart in the bloomberg and you can view the chart of the euro against the dollar using the gtp function and we see a beautiful trend in december of 2016 all the way through april of this year, and then a reversal here, the uptrend has started to drop. this area and orange represents the drop from last week that suggest a big move to the upside could happen if there is a bit of a reversal here, but the more likely outcome is a irish continuation pattern and we could see a quick drop to 110 or so, maybe even lower. here to talk more about what is ahead possibly for the euro versus the dollar, i would like .o bring in patrick nipper
from a macro standpoint, what do you think about what's happening in europe right now? macro standpoint we are starting to see where euro growth is growing a little bit. industrial production starting to weaken on a year-over-year basis. still positive, but not as strong as it was. it doesn't translate directly to the equity markets, but he gives us the signal that growth differentials may be starting to widen between europe and the u.s.. speaking of widening, there's a huge spread widening between the 10 year yield and the bond -- the bund. here you can tell us about what it means. patrick: in the blue line we have the 10 year yield. this goes back to 2008 and the white line is the german bund. they parallel pretty closely for quite some time and then you start to see a divergence around
2013. it continued to widen. the spread has widened pretty consistently over the past couple of years. this is the widest that the spread has been in about 10 years or so. what it means is that interest rates are more attractive in the united states than they are in europe. so, where's capital going to go? it's want to flow into the u.s. and if it flows into the u.s., it's good for the dollar. abigail: very interesting. sounds like a bearish set up on the euro in terms of the specific trade idea. this is a two-year chart, too? >> you saw that the euro had a peek here in september and came back a little bit and then peaked again in february. abigail: this is the front month contract? it's a rolling contract. this rally fizzled out and if you take a look at what happened on thursday of last week we call it a volatility alert.
a standard deviation event compared to recent volatility in terms of the trading range. that means pay attention. it means that something is going on in that direction that you need to be aware of and we had the one break on the trendline. what we see here is trading right near the bottom of this range. it comes back to you a little bit in the 117 range or so. that's a good place to engage on the short side. abigail: you would sell euro futures around 115 and your target is maybe even lower? if you are getting greedy? patrick: that's right you have longer-term congestion zones back there. , thank: patrick nipper you so much. julia, scarlet, back to you. julia, -- julia:? mark: jeff sessions says that most law enforcement officials don't want to separate errands from their children. he told a meeting of the national sheriffs association in
new orleans that enforcing immigration laws that result in the separation of children from parents is necessary. >> we had hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied minors, people, children, young people that came and their parents coming through our borders, leading to a resurgence of the violent ms 13 gang, terrorizing high schools. sessions added that we cannot and will not encourage people to bring their children by giving them blanket immunity from our laws. the trump administration is asking the supreme court for an emergency order that would temporarily allow the federal government to withhold law enforcement grants from so-called sanctuary cities and most of the country. the administration issued by a federal judge in chicago was declared to sweeping and should have been limited to that city.
chicago contends that the trump administration placing unconstitutional conditions on the grants. it more than 25,000 people have fled the fighting along the coastline of yemen, where they are engaged in fierce battles with a rainy and backed rebels. of the u.n. today that most have searched for a safe lays within their own disk x or within other areas. the offensive has faced criticism from international aid groups, who fear prolonged fighting could force a shutdown of the city's port and potentially push millions into starvation. hurricane maria, which devastated puerto rico last september is now being blamed for the alarming jump in asthma cases on the island. the chronic lung disease is caused by such things as pollen. global news, 24 hours per day on air and at tictoc on twitter,
powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark thompson, this is bloomberg. scarlet? abigail: the used -- scarlet: thank you so much, mark. opec is expected to be discussing a smaller than expected boost to production before their meeting. let's hand things over now to alix steel. alix: i'm joined now by spencer dale, who takes a look at the broader trends in the oil industry. theirre recently out statistical review of world energy. spencer, always good to catch up with yousp. we talk abouten opec. in what context does opec matter in the next few decades? spencer: they still have a role here. 70% account for more than of oil reserves and they have shown in the last year that they have the ability to stabilize the market. one of the big messages from
last year is that the opec production cuts work. they hit reduction cuts, they exceeded it, and as a result of which, inventories have come back down to more normal levels. it seems like in a broader sense, exxon is one of the only majors doubling down on oil. now transitioning, they are looking at renewable energies and gas. when you did your review, what's going to be the power makes going forward? spencer: there's strong growth in wind, solar, natural gas, the energy transitions take a long time. the world is likely to be issued significance amounts of oil and natural gas. alix: one of the bearish indicators for oil is peak
demand and i'm out. beyond that it's i don't know and i don't care. i don't know when it's going to happen because frankly i can tell you different assumptions ,y pace of vehicle efficiency growth in china, a myriad of different things and they can change the timing by 10 to 15 years. i don't care. even when oil demand stops growing, it's unlikely to fall sharply. to give you a simple rule of thumb, in an arranged scenario, even something consistent with the two degrees in a rio, you get oil demand between 85 million barrels per day and 100 million barrels per day. if the world stopped investing in oil today and we just laid out the kleins that had to take place, it would only be about 40 to 45 million barrels per day of oil. the world would need huge investments in oil for many decades to come. thereand you wonder if
will be a lot of investments and cold. this chart shows the different regions of the world and how the different energy and power mixes went into that. what struck me is that coal for example is still a huge part not also india.a, but renewables are good in china but in much smaller fractions areas like the middle east. walk me through these projections. not in projections, just in terms of today's data, the share of coal in the global power market today is oil within 2017 at 38%. guess what the share was in 1998? it was 38%. the share of coal in the global power sector has not changed. alix: i thought the cold was dying. >> this is one of the messages from the fiscal review. of nonfossil fuels in the sector has actually declined over the last 20 years.
at the same time, nuclear energy and to a lesser extent hydro has declined. we know that the power sector really matters. it absorbs about or he percent of energy and makes the most carbon emissions of any sector in the world. we know from countless studies the effectiveness on the progress for the paris climate goals and we have made precisely zero progress. one of the messages from the bp fiscal review this year is a wake-up call that we need to push harder and harder. but the growth is elsewhere. the percentage of power for coal may not have changed, but the growth in renewables is astronomical to some x -- to some respect. spencer: it accounted for half of the growth and power in 2017.n strong growth in the overall growth rate, but those shares
take a long time to shift. for almost 50% and coal accounted for around 40% of the growth of last year and this is in different parts of the world. coal demands in the u.s. power sector fell last year. what we saw the was increasing in fast-growing developing economies. china, particularly india. the growth of coal in india accounted for three quarters of the growth. alix: i'm glad that you brought up india. if you are an energy company wondering where to invest for the next early years you are looking at china and india for the demand in energy growth. what kind. spencer: it's a mix of strong growth in coal and natural gas. china in a different position, gradually easing away from coal.
big falls inthree coal consumption. renewable energy with natural gas, there is a surge in demand from china last year, it grew by over 15% last year, accounting world'sthird of the total increasing gas consumption. that was a cold the gas switching story. environmental policies encouraging industries and households to stop using coal and to use natural gas. it's a huge benefit to the environmental air quality. you tied it back to recent news and in the recent tariffs what was ignored from china on u.s. imports was lng, natural gas, saying they would tax the pipelines but no u.s. gas was going to come in a pipeline to china. was that a mistake or is that really speaking to the trend that you noticed in your statistical report?
it's the strongest growth from them that we have seen in seven or eight years. china's increase of imports accounted for half of global increase. china overtook korea to be the world's second-largest import market, second only to japan. china's demand for gas is likely to grow substantially over the next decade. some of that will come through some pipelines from central asia. the vast majority will come through lng imports. u.s. is one of the world's major exporters. alix: the cheapest. don't want to add on that tax. great to see you, thank you for , withng by, spencer dale the 2018 statistical review. julia? scarlet: peak energy, don't know, don't care, love it. ,e sure to catch alex's show
commodities edge, every thursdays at 1 p.m. eastern time and if you should choose to, you can check out gtb good go on the bloomberg, with all the charts that you see here on bloomberg television. i will just get rid of that before you can see the chart and those things they have been discussing today. rebounding, the technicals are pointing to a directional move lower as well as you have. talking about opec, you name it, you can find it on the bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
piddly boats, announcing the retirement of their chief operating and markets officers are you dave wilson joins us with more. i was just looking at what they do, they are a commerce solutions global technology company. what does that actually mean? scarlet: anything and everything? >> exactly. focusing on out mailings, postal meters or what they are best known for. they have expanded over the years into package delivery, , a software that analyzes customer data, that sort of thing. the basic is this is still very much a piece of the company and they really struggled the last few years, no question. you can see it in their shares, which by the way just last month after the latest earnings report hit the lowest rice since 1990. you can also see it if you look at what has happened to their earnings. i know we had that chart. since 2015 they have been years in a rowee
and analysts are looking for a fourth decline this year. you can argue that this is a company that has been overtaken by technology because when you think about the basic mailing business, who sends mail when they can send out email instead? scarlet: i have fond memories of standing in front of one of those machines at high school, stamping envelopes, but the company has decided against selling itself in march. these management changes we are talking about, has it revolved deal speculation? >> you could argue that it might be behind the gains that you are seeing. what the heck is happening there? this is a company that decided in march that they were going to go ahead with their plan and reject suitors who according to our report at least included lack stone and carlisle, so there was a possibility of a buyout. if they are going to go forward, they have to make changes. it's interesting that they are
bringing up the head of their brand strategy, someone focused digital side, to take the place of their chief marketing officer. it's clear that they know where their future is. what's not so clear is that they can go forever on their plans. julia: and there's the question of becoming a buyout target. scarlet: there's that, too. ago,e ceo a few months again, from our reports, was willing to consider the possibility of a deal. now you have to wonder if that's more impossible. scarlet: have you ever heard of the company before? julia: nope. onlyet: it's not a u.s. company, 20% of revenue comes from outside the u.s.. ok, dave wilson, thank you so much. julia: and we love your tie. it's got a typewriter on it and it's how technology changes the world, right? julia: staying alive, old-school.
is "bloomberg markets." julia: time now for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news today. shares of when days -- wednesday -- shares of wendy's falling after a viral video. the video reportedly came from a worker in oklahoma. wendy's is investigating the matter. rising 59%high after in 2018, some analysts are growing more bullish about their ability to gain market share in the high emerging markets. in the second half of the year they will beginning -- they will begin producing ships -- chips for technology that will put them on equal footing with intel. david neal men has raised up
$100 million to start a new u.s. airline and according to industry reports, moxie airways will be a local carrier focused on reducing travel hassles by using smaller airports. several boards show that orders have been secured for jets that have scheduled to start flying in 2020. that is your business flash update. scarlet: the run-up to the amazon prime july promotion day overlaps with ramadan, days in andh observing muslims fast seek time off, creating tension in the twin cities region, where amazon orderly employs over 1000 east african muslim immigrants. today our ongoing conversation about the bottom line impact of diversity taking a deeper look at the issue. joining us from minneapolis is the executive director of care minnesota, the council on american islamic relations. welcome. i want to get started with
finding out from you how you and your organization got involved with the situation at amazon. >> so, you know we have been working with companies like amazon here in minnesota, who have large diversity of employees, including muslims from different backgrounds. we have been educating employers about how to better accommodate their employees. this is something we have been doing and it is part of our large portfolio. this is a space be working well and community members have reach out to us in the past to address issues like this. so that's how these employees reached out to us and we have been working with amazon as well on how we make sure that they are working more effectively with their new employees. scarlet: we know that amazon needs to staff facilities of product and preparation of for the big day, one of the biggest of the year. focuses around
ramadan? jaylani: it's a month where muslims from across the world celebrate and during the day, they don't eat or drink during the day, but they still carry on their workload and in most cases they want, you know, to be recognized for that and in a setting like the amazon floor, it's a pretty demanding job, whether you are fasting or not. when you are fasting it's more demanding because you're not able to drink or eat. amazon has said that they are willing to work with these employees, but we just learned that a mother of five kids, 14 month employee recently was let go because she did not meet a certain ratio that they expected from her. scarlet: obviously a situation that don't want to see repeated. you said you had worked with other companies in the region. give us examples of best practices from other companies in the twin cities region,
accommodations that perhaps they make for muslim employees during ramadan? jaylani: we have worked with a number of fortune 500 companies that employ it muslims and we work with companies who employ even a small number of muslim employees have found out what the prayer schedules are, offered muslims spaces for them to pray, as well as recognizing during the month of ramadan to employees.help these in most cases they do a good job and we want amazon to all assume some of these other companies who went above and beyond to make sure that they give their workers the most they could get out of it. scarlet: jaylani hussein, thank you very much. ♪
julia: we are live from the bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. your other top stories we are covering on the bloomberg and around the world. stocks intensifying trade tensions around the world, sparking a slight risk on the total change from markets this monday, could climb as unity is under change strain with a compromise in the works and we have details of the group meet this week in vienna. and it's a fox fight as to futures battle to buy the company. rupert murdoch considers his next step. let's get a check on the markets with julie hyman. julie: we continue to have this divergence between the dow and the nasdaq. the nasdaq is down much more than the nasdaq as we continue to have trade tensions as one of
the reasons behind the selling we have seen. the dow is actually down for the fifth straight session, the only of the major averages to be in those straits. at the same time, interestingly, the best that we will see more volatility for is not really present here. if you look at leveraged funds in the big net position's they have been short and getting directionally shorter ever since april, the only time that they were net long, so you could argue that they were not exactly correct and it gives you an idea into the sentiment behind market disappearance year, that they are still not short volatility. getting back to the tariffs and the stocks on the move, we continue to see large industrials and equipment makers hit i this. not huge declines, but again it's the trend, the direction. boeing, caterpillar, dear, feeling the pain on that front as the products made by those companies are among those from the chinese subject to tariffs with weakness today from
homebuilders. lumber prices, if you look at the national association of homebuilders, homebuilder sentiment fell in june, matching the lowest level this year and lumberdo with higher costs, interestingly. we have a look at some of the homebuilders. we don't have the homebuilders? take my word for it. we are watching tech stocks today. hopefully we have that one. intel and at&t trading lower. not strictly tech but there has been weakness and telecom today as well and interestingly some of the chipmakers appeared to be victims perhaps of trade concerns where some of the large kept tech names are not. not just divergence between eventrials and tech, but within technology between the chipmakers and the likes of intel and facebook and out for that, scarlet. scarlet: i'm just pulling up the return here for the different homebuilders, just to take a look and prove the case that julia was right, all the
homebuilders are down and some are off. we always believe julie, but i just wanted to back that up. let's get to first word news with mark pumped in. mark: thank you. kristen nielsen homeland security's secretary says that border agents are not being cruel by separating children from their parents at the southern border, they are simply enforcing the nation's immigration laws. secretary nielsen spoke today at the national sheriffs association conference in new orleans. >> we do not have the luxury of pretending that all individuals coming to this country as a family unit are in fact a family. we have to do our job and we will not apologize for doing our job. mark: secretary nielsen says that agents will no longer look he other way when families try to cross the border illegally, a policy that has resulted in nearly 2000 miners separated from their families over the last month and a half. the u.n. writes humans rights
chief is urging the trump administration to end the zero tolerance policy. >> the american association of pediatrics has called this cruel practice government sanctioned child abuse, which may cause irreparable harm with lifelong consequences. the thought that any state would seek to deter parents by inflicting such abuse on children is unconscionable. is deeplyaid he concerned about policies the punish children for the actions of their parents. the fbi director and the justice department inspector general are testifying before the senate areciary committee, they being questioned about the inspector general's report on the fbi actions during the 2016 presidential election. last week the report criticized james comey for multiple decisions that investigators .aid rope from protocol
the inspector general it found no evidence that political bias affected the outcome of the investigation. chuck grassley said today that the justice department has a serious credibility problem. per day on 24 hours air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by 2700 and analyst in over 120 countries. i'm a mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. scarlet: now, all eyes are on fox this week. the media company board is expected to consider a $65 billion offer from comcast for entertainment assets it agreed to sell to disney last year. joining us now is our bloomberg media deals reporter. any intelligence we are getting from fox? the cash offer from comcast sounds too good to turn up. >> it's a good time to be rupert murdoch, that's the case here. he has earned 87 this year and is having a pretty good year.
even though on paper it does look definitely like a big number, what the board members will consider is whether that is still bigger than the stock of disney. with the tax implications and also with the regulatory concerns, which offer is better? if you are the fox directors, why not kick this into the next round? there are two players that really want your assets, let them battle it out. what are we hearing from fox about which one is more alluring? you have mentioned the challenges, the differences between the two banks lectures of the deals. they have a window here. >> disney has 20 of time to decide. first they have to decide if it would lead to a higher bid. then they have to negotiate with comcast and then they come up with a formal bid. and then disney has five days. fox has to say first that they would like the comcast did better.
we know that disney has been talking to its bankers to try to see if they can add a little bit of cash to sweeten the offer as well on top of what they have their. the question i put hammond the other day, the fact that rupert murdoch is selling, shouldn't that give people reason to pause? doesn't it seem that these assets are getting a little bit pricey and maybe now is not the best time to bid higher for them? >> there are two ways to look at this. rupert murdoch is a small man who has built an empire and one of the reasons he said he's selling is that he said he couldn't get the scale, get the scale to compete with netflix or amazon, the googles of the world, so he thought it was best to get away. whoever is buying it is buying that scale. he says he's leaving for strategic reasons? that basis the companies are trading between
seven times the nine times and comcast is offering more than 14 times. yes, that's a lot of money to offer. on the other hand, what's the price of not winning the bid. what's the price of not having these assets? that's what they have to way. thelet: the altar -- julia: alternative option. what do you think fox and rupert are looking at for a windfall? in focusing on the news and sports business in particular, i love how you were going down the holiday route. [laughter] beasley they are doubling down on what they call the remainder, the new fox. he has said that what he would like to do is merge that with the news corp. like with their publishing businesses and you can see that they show that more than $2.5 million for the thursday night nfl rights. there's wwe on offer as well and they purchase of tv stations that they had to offload as part of their merger. they are definitely doubling
down on that and you do need money to become playing with sports rights with assets like that. for whoever loses out, when will we see this come up again? they have put together a package of highly attractive assets, but is there someone else was something better to offer? >> this is why it will be so competitive. everyone thinks that these are the last remaining assets like this of scale and the question is, which, disney or comcast needs it more, and who is happy to pay up? julia: i love that you called it an auction, because that's what it comes down to. loser or winner? staying with deals, power player, my conversation with the president of the san francisco 49ers, who talked about diversifying revenue streams as the ceo of a news arts consultancy. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm scarlet fu widger -- with julia chatterley. some of the world greatest power players and sports and entertainment are starting a new goal, taking it to a new level. out we know is president of the 49ers and he serves as ceo of elevator sports ventures. in a bloomberg exclusive we discuss how this partnership is reshaping the sports and entertainment landscape. >> it's an interesting time to be in the world of sports, it's growing dramatically. $30 billion is being spent on new stadiums and arenas and all teams areports becoming massive conglomerates. they are sports and entertainment companies that
play basketball, baseball, for all. for us combining the entity with harris sports caa, we are here to announce to bring new partners. the oakview group, who built aeg , and live nation with ticketmaster on the content side. really trying to bring the allusion to a facility operator or operator that we can plug and play that they can rethink this whole sports fan experience landscape. scarlet: one of your stated goals is to identify new revenue opportunities. stadiums are already booked solid for every imaginable event . so many premium services are on offer. give us an example of the revenue opportunities we might be looking at in three to five years that we don't have in place right now. >> looking at these facilities, we have a full-time school inside the venue. i have eight full-time teachers on staff. i have my own team curriculum,
restaurant, we do physical therapy centers with a tech innovation lab inside of levi stadium. so does harris blitzer. for us it's whatever vertical touches the world of sports before fan experience. sports performance, all of those things are in or around a venue, security operations. for us it's obg being important, they will become the world's largest facility operator. tim already built it and is doing it now. we are excited working on an nhl project in seattle, our first client with a massive renovation of an iconic venue. $700 million renovation, putting capital into that makes us different than any other provider out there. we are not just a consulting firm that takes fees, we actually put capital into the buildings and take risks on our own because we truly believe we have a package that's different from everyone else's. scarlet: did the refurbishment
change with the tax law? >> the economics of everything has changed over time. going back shortly, buildings were only costing $200 million, 300 million dollars, taxpayers were putting money into those venues. that's no longer into the case. the appetite tax payers money into stadiums is going away, so you have to get to the point where you are creative about how you finance these objects. whether that's what you do for yourself in marketing or how you entertain your building and operate it, the content that you put in your venue -- if you take an nfl stadium, for instance, it makes no sense to spend $1.4 billion and play 12 games. it has to be a convention center, a restaurant, a place where you can host weddings, schools, do everything possible because you want to maximize that footprint. you mentioned the would be seattle franchise team and they have talked about the value of franchises there, to
transform and economically rehabilitate the surrounding neighborhoods. tell me more about the plans for thoserrounding areas and projects. >> downtown in seattle, the rejuvenation project that already exist and will continue to come, i think those are the best partnerships, good private public ownership's when they come together inside of a municipality to drive economic growth. when i think about what levi stadium has done in the bay area , we have given $500 million in economic growth in four years because we are able to bring the world's largest events, which fill up your hotel and your restaurants, creating sales tax that wouldn't otherwise be there. this is a tremendous partnership where we are putting in all the capital, but the city itself benefits. scarlet: arthur blank's has every date rising for
concessions. does that work everywhere else question mark is it not need to happen any were else? a market like san francisco and new york doesn't have to offer that to get people to come? market workse everywhere. you have to find a product for every single fan. buildings are certainly caught up with premium suites, clubs. if you lose touch with your average fan and i want everyone to experience and arisia for stadium. a part ofeverage is that. you don't need to be one-size-fits-all, but you need a value offer. scarlet: how many major stadium projects are there every year? >> it's hard to say. right now there's probably 50% of the u.s. markets overturning every day. dallas, san francisco, los angeles, vegas, all in the last five years. in the english premier league,
billions of dollars are being spent. chelsea is now trying to build a new one. everyone is trying to build anyone. right now stadium medivation and design is bigger than it's ever been. scarlet: that was my exclusive interview with al guido. you might recognize him as the president of the 49ers. he mentioned their first client, the would be seattle expansion team. the board of governors is meeting on june 20 to vote on whether they will add another expansion team. this of course comes on the heels of the successful debut season by the golden knights, which went all the way to the stanley cup finals and fell to the capitals in the end, but made a great impression. upia: i love how you light when we talk about these things. i just nodded. [laughter] our biggeste of business stories in the news today. shares of gamestop spiking 9%
for volatility. they're reportedly holding talks with private equity firms after getting takeout interest. the world's top advertiser, procter and gamble, once women byproduce half of its ads 2023. one in 10 ads are produced by women today. the consumer time and is combining with a program that requires at least one woman director among the final candidates to produce commercials. a company executive says that achieving economic equality between men and women could add $28 trillion to the world's economy. that is your business flash up eight. nice to see the math on that. a reminder that you can find all of our interviews on the bloomberg with tv and become a part of the conversation. check out what's coming up next as well. we will be talking about convertible bonds with tracy maitland. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: time now for options insight. julie: joining me today for .ptions insight is alex conner thanks for coming in. good to see you. wes interesting, the action are seeing today. we noticed that the dow has been in a losing streak even as the nasdaq and the s&p with the russell holding up at her. what are you watching as the driving force behind the activity you are seeing in the options market? >> we aren't seeing much relative to the other components but we are looking at the s&p playing catch-up at the end of the quarter. thely to be buoyed by strength of the nasdaq. thatese are the stocks have been so teflon, you think that they will continue their run and help the nasdaq in a
lift from here? >> we believe that the nasdaq will lead the market and s&p higher into the quarter end and also the russell, the strength in the russell, the fact that it -- that its major components are not really affected by trade tensions really helps to buoy the market and we continue to know, as we you look out into the summer and september. i want tont -- julie: ask you about a chart i brought up a little while ago that has to do with leverage positions in the vic. we are still looking at this short volatility position, implying that maybe there's not optimism were a lot of pessimism or bracing for more volatility to come. what do you make of that? is this the right strategy for people to be taking? expressedparticipants interest the court extrinsic long or short on volatility
directly through short put options. know, we think that continued short volatility trade is probably the trade that will work into the summer as we have seen a lot of managers gross down their books from a leverage perspective and just sort of prepare for more uncertainty. we think that from a contrarian that drives the market higher. gotcha. all of this said, your trade today, i know you are using the etf for this trade, so what does it look like? >> specifically it's a simple trade with a call spread next friday. as of this morning we are paying about $.30, $.35 for the trade to make a profit of about two dollars. specifically here we are risking a little less than $200,000 to make a million dollars on the upside. it's a good trade for managers
that have gross down there books case the s&p does play catch-up. look at theyou potential risks that market participants appear to be watching, trade seems to be top of mind for a lot of investors. why don't you think that will be the s&pa problem for now, which has some of these components that might be >> specifically we like the sector waiting. 70%,onsumer makes up financials 15%, health care 14%. those sectors are not really being targeted by the trade ,ensions as industrials materials, and energy, which are a much smaller component of the s&p. we think the winners will continue to win and drive the index higher into the close of the quarter. appreciated thanks,
. julia, back to you. julia: coming up tomorrow, blankfein on bloomberg. the ceo and chairman of goldman sachs joins us tomorrow and in the meantime you can check out the g tv on the bloomberg as we were mentioning earlier, this is where you can find all the charts that discussed here on bloomberg television. it's the goto source if you want to look at key analysis for charts and future reference. i'm showing you a whole host of them, the forecast outperforming globally, the chart that you can see in the numbers. julie was just discussing it in one and two. you can dig even deeper if you want to. plenty more coming from us. this is bloomberg. ♪
administration's actions. president trump: the united states will not be a migrant camp, and it will not be a refugee holding facility. it won't be. you look at what is happening in europe, you look at what is happening in other places. we can't allow that to happen in the united states, not on my watch. mark: homeland security secretary kirstjen nielsen also discussed the policy, telling a law-enforcement conference in new orleans that border agents are not being cruel by separating some children from their parents. former first ladies michelle obama and laura bush have joined in the criticism of the trump administration's zero tolerance regarding families trying to enter the u.s. illegally. aday mrs. obama retweeted message from mrs. bush promoting a column she wrote in which she described the policy of separating children from their parents as cruel and immoral. mrs. obama added, "sometimes truth transcends party."
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