tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 25, 2018 4:00am-7:00am EDT
,> deutsche on the offensive because of their weakest second quarter. we bring you our exclusive interview. trumps take talks. the president called for brussels to drop all subsidies. will the two men find anything to agree on? conglomerate is set to be considering a $10 billion offer for the belgian shares. it could be its boldest move yet.
good morning everyone, and welcome. these are your markets, you can see the european stocks is hundred -- 600. you can see the earnings season gaining a bit of support from the market participants. earnings are strong, but it is ok. we found out from quite a lot of people that tensions are high, as trump meets with the eu correspondent. we are getting figures out of germany. versus the iso july fashion business confidence. but pretty much flat. looking for the euro-dollar. there are tensions between europe and the u.s. brooding. and finally, after the dramatic fall of the yuan, you can see it stabilizing 6.78 as we speak.
more on our exclusive indu from christian sewing, without a doubt, the men of the day. and we have that exclusive conversation up shortly. let's get straight to first word news in new york city. donald trump has tempered his rhetoric towards iran, two days after he sent an all caps tweet. addressing the national convention of the veterans of foreign wars, the present took credit for pulling america at of the iran nuclear accord, but that his administration stands ready for iran to come back to the negotiating table. >> i withdrew the united states from the horrible, one-sided iran nuclear deal. and iran is not the same country anymore. that i can say and we will see what happens.
but we are ready to make a real deal, not the deal done by the previous administration, which was a disaster. in washington, two leading senators say they will introduce a bipartisan bill to increase tensions against russia. that would target of the sovereign debt, as well as their energy and financial sectors. the announcement by lindsey graham and bob menendez follows the uproar after donald trump questioned the validity of the and intelligence community their assessments that russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. theresa may is taking control over brexit negotiations. in a move that reinforces her drive to keep close to the eu. decision sidelines the troublesome administration created two years ago to lead the british withdrawal from the eu. it also follows months of tensions between the former brexit secretary david davis,
who led the department until he -- chief mays cheap your advisor. advisor. and deutsche bank has vowed to maintain their position, after recording their weakest second quarter's global financial crisis. income from buying and selling fixed income slumped 17% from a year earlier to about 1.3 7 billion euros. equity trading fell 6%. >> i think the pretext of 700 million, for the first half of the year, is a solid number. importantly, we have executed on all of the targets we have set. on the cost side, we went q2, with reduction in the lowest headcount since may 2010. importantly, we have fully
reduced our leverage. taylor: global news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thanks so much. president trump needs with the eu trade commissioner today with focus on the trade war. suggestion calling for both europe and the u.s. to drop all tariffs, all barriers, and all subsidies. but he took a critical turn ahead of a meeting yesterday in a speech to veterans. >> they sounds nice, but they are rough. they're all coming in to see me tomorrow. they're all coming into the white house. i said you have to change, they didn't want to. i said we will tariff your cars. we said if we do not negotiate something fair, then we have tremendous retribution, which we
don't want to use, but we have tremendous powers. including cars, cars is the big one. we are talkingat about with respect to cars and tariffs on cars. >> we love the eu. we love the countries of the eu. but the eu was set up to take advantage of the united states. to attack our piggy bank. >> we are working on nafta right now. and if we are able to make a deal with canada and mexico, then there will be no reason to do the terrorists with mexico and canada. but again, other countries, we won't have that choice. unless they can do something for us. as an example, if the european union takes off some of the horrible barriers that make it impossible for our product to go into their, then we can stop talking. otherwise, we will leave it the way it is. francine: so just how much can get published at the meeting.
isning us now for more bloomberg's senior international affairs reporter. first of all, what is your trying to achieve? mark: damage control. if you are looking at donald trump's tweets, there is actually no reason the eu should not take him seriously the first thing to do is just to try and get him to put off or agree to some process in which these tariffs would not be put on. younger -- junker should have an advantage. , inke the earlier tariffs this case, the u.s. industry is not key. into it. not been they feel it would hurt them. hand,should have a strong
but everything trump is suggesting at the moment says he wants the trade war. -- iine: what do you make mean, you heard them say this. is it colorful, or is a policy. i am not surprised, but if you look at them, you could argue the president -- meeting could go either way because both speak their minds. how do you take an educated guess on whether they find agreement or the meeting goes badly? mark: i would be pessimistic on whether they find an agreement increasingly, there is a thatnition settling in , if not as ae eu foe, then as a competitor. they are not allies, not friends, just competitors. in that sense, he treats them the same way he treats other countries.
he treats these countries as competitors, not as allies. leverage they had in that sense. if an eu leader goes the white house, there is an assumption these are friends meeting. that assumption is not there. and he is the ultimate expression of an eu leader. he used to be the prime minister of a tiny country, luxembourg, and yet is at the head of the eu. he is a huge federalist of your. a signature to the mastery of trees. -- treaties. he represents everything that trumps america first policy, his go it alone, nationalist policies, are designed to take part. -- apart. francine: thank you very much. so how is the trade dispute affecting markets and investments?
guests,us now are our chief investment officer's and their firms. it seems these trade concerns, whether they escalate, they sometimes get played out into currencies. what did move today? >> just to start off by what we expect from the summit. not very optimistic about the outcome. differencesportant in how they want to approach the issue of tariffs. if you are following, not only trumps headlines, but what mnuchin was saying, they want a suspension of not only tariffs but no tariff barriers regarding subsidies and all that. that is quite a sticking point. even if the europeans are considering removing tariffs, there is quite a bit of disagreement on no tariff trade barriers the safety regulations, consumer protections, all about.
there is not much ground on the outset of the summit. francine: but back to my president gotg20, along with justin trudeau, and then they did not get along. where,e some situation after the meeting, the two men expand barb wires. does that move currencies? valentin: further escalation is the bigger risk. it highlights that the europe has been trading with exporters. escalation inn the wake of the summit of those trade tensions, the euro will go lower in tandem. so certainly not optimistic on the outlook billion to the summit. how do you see it play out on the markets? we had quite a lot of earnings that surprised. had earnings,we
because we can almost had what is going on -- pad what is going on. the problem we have a is the problem we all had. he is not making sense. he is not speaking to us, he is speaking to the disenfranchised middle class area -- . not am, trade war's is bad thing. he has midterm elections. this is the play we are playing. we are to approach it from this perspective. we know that trump needs conflict, and we know this will be provided by trade war's. the danger from a market perspective is that they are focused on the short-term, great earnings, 20%. also for good. but what happens when earnings disappoint? what happens when fiscal reform fizzles out? francine: that is the
million-dollar question. chart.ould be the pau let's bring it up, it says it all. it looks at growth and analysts earnings for share estimates for the msci all countries index. and is now at the same point as last year. is this earnings, or is this on forecast because of trade concerns? pau: equities do not work on earnings, they move on how the gulf. ve,few golf -- evol but on what? will that change? history suggests that it will. perhaps there will be a nonlinear move in wages. the second reason is fiscal reform. it can only take you some way. war haser is that trade
the potential to destabilize the market, in particular cap, which is driving the market. people are going into passive investment, and this is self-fulfilling. the danger is if we have a trade war, text is affected, and then others are affected. analysts are not as optimistic about the future. francine: we will talk a little bit more about tech in the future. thank you very much. stay with surveillance, plenty coming up. including deutsche bank's fixed income frustrations. the unit has posted at their worst second quarters of the vital crisis. we bring you our exclusive interview. next, the broadcaster rethink their approach as they get a weak outlook from tv and the sales. stay tuned, this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: economics, finance, and politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to our top corporate stories. deutsche bank has vowed to defend their position on fixed income trading, after posting their weakest second quarter since the financial crisis. from aslumped to 70% year earlier to about 1.4 billion euros. speaking to bloomberg in an exclusive interview, their executive struck an optimistic tone. in the fixed business, the core business within the corporate structure, we had a good second quarter, in particular in credit.
secondly, we went through a transformation in the second quarter. so you see the other adjustment we have done. therefore, we did it in one quarter. we built up the capital, we bring it back, and with the processes we had, i am very confident we will see growing revenues going forward. >> you say in a press release that you remain confident about maintaining your position as the fourth largest house. what gives you that confidence? christian: the feedback we get. since i have been in this position, i have seen more than 150 clients globally. and they see us as the european bank offering a full range of corporate banking investment services. secondly, the expertise in products we have. if you look into the
underlying business into the andlopments we have seen, the capital position we have, i am confident we can grow. >> what about the private commercial bank? do we see revenues here dropping 10%, even with selloff not included? if you take out the one off compared to last funds, we are below that. in an interest rate environment again, here in europe, in an environment where we completed the largest merger of banks in germany since the european central bank in 2014, that is actually a good result. resiliency,n despite the focus on the merger. i think we are growing in the lending business, growing assets under management. and that speaks for my ultimate a business and bank with
stable revenue that is sustainable, profitable, and therefore needs long-term growth. and in that direction, it was growing lending and growing assets. >> let's talk about the rate environment. we seem to have a clear path from mario draghi and the ecb. are you that we could see rates increase and how important is to you? christian: you know, in particular, we focus on the next 18 months. we have set clear goals for the next 18 months. we are saying we want to have a , andn on equity's of 4% that does not depend on a rate increase. we have to plan what we can actually influence. that is cost, capital, and that is what we are doing. tocourse, it would be nice have a rate increase, but that is not in my hands.
this is not an underlying driver for the next 18 months. to be honest, it is always hard to predict rate increases, and therefore, is not part of the plan. francine: that was christian sewing, the chief executive of deutsche bank. let's get straight to frankfurt to matt. great interview. he seemed quite optimistic, does he have a real reason to be optimistic, or is he just talking? the share price is muted, but i think the business reported its weakest second quarter since the financial crisis. right, so the reason he is optimistic is he feels he can slow down the drop in revenue, and at the same time, continue with cost cuts. that is key to boost margins and make money. they have 401 million euros of net profit in the quarter. , in someugh it was
instances, lower than it had been a year ago, it was much higher than the market anticipated. is very confident because of the leverage that deutsche bank has built up, confidence because of client meetings he has been able to take. and frankly, this is what they need right now. a young, energetic ceo that is confident, he can meet his targets. because the last ceos they had were not able to do that and needed multiple restructuring plans to turn the bank around and, of course, failed. francine: are they staying in the u.s.? matt: they are staying. he says they need to maintain a material position to be a successful bank. they say they are confident they will stay in the global number four, at least in sales and trading.
to do that, they have to be in the u.s.. but i think it was also interesting that he said they are serious about staying in london. he thinks that london will remain a financial capital for europe. even post-brexit, they want to hold a position in london. he would not tell me what it would look like or what his contingency plan is for a no deal brexit. francine. francine: matt, thank you so much. we will of course bring you other exclusives from the chief executive. let's keep the focus on financials. still with us are our guests. looking at financial stocks, deutsche bank in specific, let me bring you over to this chart showing the difference between credit holders and equity holders. if you are an equity investor in deutsche bank, you are just not pleased. is the right person to turn it around?
pau: it is not just them. if you are an equity investor, less.e going to get angst are being regulated to a point whether or not allowed to do what they used to. there levels are going lower and lower. they are becoming safer entities, because the last things regulators want is the next financial crisis to be precipitated by the culprit of the previous one, but that has an impact. less leverage is less return. talking 4%, maybe a santa claus comes, 4%. valentin: [laughter] there are plenty of instruments. pau: where investors can access and have some upside on deutsche bank without having to go down the equity route.
equity has not been the place you want to be. francine: and this also goes back to the fact that the ecb is so behind the curve compared to the fed. that a lot of european banks are not going to be helped by a normalization of policy. valentin: the ecb should worry about the way their stocks are performing. part of the story is the flatness of the curve and the fact that banks cannot make money by doing what they should be doing. that's may underscore the ecb desire to continue to take steps to steepen the curve. over the years, they have preferred the choices to keep the curve as low as possible by negative rates or a strong commitment to keeping the rates as low as possible. and hoping the long end of the curve will take off and produce that desire. stick to draghi make the script and try to achieve the that, hoping that
steepening of the curve may, over time, help boost bank returns and how banks make more money. francine: thank you both. of course, we talk about the ecb next. our guests stay with us. up next, lost in translation. ecb gave mixed messages on rates in their statement of june meeting and suggest different things in different leverages. -- will mario draghi clear things up, i'm sure he will. this is what markets are doing in the meantime. they were rising earlier, now they are flat. we look at earnings and trade. ♪
chris bloom was amongst a large group of tour de france riders who needed i treatment after police uses teargas. theresa may has taken control over talks of the eu. a move seen as relegating the new brexit secretary. the department will now focus on preparing on the withdrawal. and our most read stories right here over the past few hours. in third place, market uncertainty over when the ecb will lift it must rates will rest on mario draghi. in second, protectionism is starting to weigh on the global economy. and up top, the fed president seeks output to avoid a yield curve. you can read those stories by logging into bloomberg. let's get straight to bloomberg first word news. called donald trump has for the eu and america to remove tariffs between each other,
tweeting the eu is coming to washington to negotiate a deal on trade. idea, both the u.s. and eu drop all tariffs, barriers, and subsidies. that would finally be free market and fair trade. i hope we do it, we are ready. this all comes ahead of a meeting with the eu, though they say they're not caring a new deal to washington and will discuss possible solutions. >> they sent nice, but they are rough. they are all coming in to see me tomorrow. all coming to the white house. i think you have to change, they said they didn't want to. i said ok, good, i will tariff your cars. millions of cars. taylor: theresa may is taking control of brexit negotiations in a move that reinforces her drive to keep us the eu. it sidelines a ministry she created to lead the british withdrawal.
it follows months of tensions between the former brexit secretary, who left the and hernt this month brexit advisor. has vowed to maintain its position on fixed income trading after reporting its weakest second quarter since the global financial crisis. income from buying and selling fixed income slumped 17% from a year earlier to 1.3 7 billion euros. equities trading felt 6%. >> i think the profit of 700 million the first half is a solid number. we have importantly, executed on all of the targets we have set. on the costs side, we went headcount reduction, the lowest headcount in the banking system since may 2010. and most importantly, we have
further reduced our leverage. taylor: global news, 24 hours a day on air. powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine. francine: thanks so much. markets will be looking at mario draghi is a of summer when they meet tomorrow. that is because of uncertainty arising from a statement that followed their june gathering which suggested a rate hike would not come until the end of summer next year. but in other languages, it hinted if you come in june or july. investors are not pricing in a hike until december, so any hint of removal before that could boost the euro and put pressure on governments. still with us are our guests. that, you know, basically a speak german or are a french speaker, the word used
in the statement is different. it could be in the summer or after the summer. but should we really worry about it now? valentin: are essential case is that they will try to avoid it at any costs, any hawkish surprises in be too specific about the month or indeed the date. the emphasis is likely to be that rates will stay longer -- lower for longer. so we should not expect significant support for the euro to come on the day. that said, it is worth highlighting that maybe the markets have overreacted, and by pricing out any rate hikes, we are actually a bit more hawkish and expect that the stimulus, in --, fromrates came up that point of view, we are more constructive on the euro over longer-term. on the day, there may be less
support for the currency coming from the president. francine: how much is he going to field questions on trade and currency minute relation? -- manipulation? valentin: it will be interesting, no doubt. i do not think mario draghi will want to get involved on any of that. there is no evidence they have engaged in unfair practices. we had a central bank to really stop the slide in the euro back in 2010. so you can look back in history and say all of these claims are based on no real proof. on trade wars, their position has been consistent. they see that there is a clear downside risk, not only two euros on recovery but global recovery. and they will emphasize that they see domestic demand, and
the potential headwind should not be neglected. francine: you are expecting not many big weights -- waves. and that means markets can focus on other things. valentin: -- pau: yes. there is another political stability for him not to rock the boat. francine: i want to show you this chart. this is the payment system owned and operated the euro system. you can see the difference between germany, italy, and spain. this comes as we have news that italy's president is trying to shield the finance minister. that is a popular chart, especially if you are a euro bear. the fact being, those assets and liabilities will only as actuale
liabilities if they leave the euro. so long as the euro stays in one-piece, that these charts, however beautiful, do not mean much. in italy, the, harder it may become to ignore those charts. in the time being, we do not consider them. but hopefully, we will not have to. but it really depends on whether the eurozone is going to stay the way it is. it depends on the outlook for the euro. francine: thank you so much. we will be talking a little in the retail sector. up next, going public. is this the right climate for companies to make their market debuts? this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is time for our stopped spotlight. this stop survive the opening rounds of the global trade war, with chinese appetite for luxury retail surging. record half. you can see shares of getting a boost, and on this function on the terminal, which is a cool function and looks at analyst guys, nineions, 23 holes, to sell ratings. 2 selluys, 9 holds, ratings. our next guest was a general
worked withhas startups acquired by likes of ebay and oracle. recently, he founded felix capital which is taken positions in online retailers. to "surveillance. " pau, also joined by thanks for sticking around. when we last got up, has the environment for tech changed or are you more active with your fund? have found niche is you want to be exposed to. areerick: the big trends accelerating. particularly the transformation of retail through the eye of the millennial customer. trend is fundamental, and every brand must adapt to this. emergenceking for the
of these very authentic digital brands that connect to customers in particular through social media, but also the physical world. first of all, they are difficult to identify. very difficult for the old brands to keep up because they do not have that many millennials on the board. what is specific about millennials? do they shop differently? maybe you are a millennial. i am not. [laughter] frederick: i am not. there is a millennial culture that is creating a big impact. people want authenticity. there is a transformation of not being told this is what you have to buy, but more i want to relate to the product i am using. that is having an impact across the board. francine: but i'm always told that about asian buyers, why we saw a resurgence of some of
these brands that have a real heritage. of luxury stories companies was to tell that story, to get people to buy more. frederick: there is a wonderful exempt. in gucci. if you look at what they have done, they have had strong results. there are two large opportunities for the groups. the chinese at the millennial customer, and at the intersection of both, gucci has done phenomenally well. they are writing that trend and have just hired a new designer at louis vuitton. these are global trends. and we expect those groups to do very well. francine: what exactly is your business plan? what you do is find something interesting, do you help them grow or try to appeal -- ipo them? frederick: we spent a lot of time on instagram. what we are looking for our
cues. we would love to see the physical cues, but we look for them online. evidence of customer love and we find these online communities, and around those, you can build an attractive business. , the online digital read started by quick count from it waseth paltrow, just a magazine, but is more. not just online, but physically, it is doing well. francine: but how does it make money? i spent a lot of time on incident, and you have just given me a carte blanche to spend a carte blanche to spend a lot of time on incident for research, obviously. . but a lot of these things do not make money unless you sell product. frederick: absolutely. we are looking for audiences, and they are built organically and authentically. what's you have an audience, you
can build a business around them. and we love to see that equation between product offering, value, and the customers. take the example of goop. ,hey are projecting a lifestyle but also it relates to travel, to fashion, to you the -- beauty. people are also looking for an element of duration. -- curation. platforms like far-fetched offering a broad set of products. people want to be guided. and that is what google does for this audience. but there are other examples. examples.many more francine: so we have facebook, amazon later, a loss of the other high end luxury. we have retail. what is overpriced? looking at luxury, is there just too much luxury after?
-- out there? anything overpriced is things that cannot transmit engagement into profits. there is a lot of engagement in these millennial generation's. that is why influence is so important. why it is the way in which we get to that. a lots of these companies will never be able to end up translating engagement into profit. it will be very much about who is able, not just to assimilate the information, but to process it and not believe that all of these information a la godly's , they have enough barrier of entry that the smaller players, it is paradoxically in a world that seems efficient, the smaller places will suffer.
the more we can extract from data and analyze the data, and if you throw enough data at our division of intelligent, we can identify patterns of data. i think you can get a winner. inevitably, these big information monopolies will be the big winners. smaller players perhaps, but i will stick with the ones that have enough critical mass and processing to understand the data. francine: but do these bigger players have to sell to china? is china the end-all? is it if you sell to china, then you are fine? clearly, china is necessary but not sufficient. that is why trade wars in china and tech are the intersection. retaliate,ce to technology will because in the middle and badly affected. necessary but not
sufficient condition for these tech players to succeed. francine: frederick, how many pitches do you get a day? we get a lots. but most of what we do is knock on the door of companies, because we know exactly what we are looking for. also, we come to talk to you and make sure more people come to see us directly. but we are very specific about these kind of brands and platforms. going and lot of time saying to them why they are relevant to us, and that is how we become relevant to them. francine: doesn't brexit affect you? because some on the news may move?- entrepreneurs may frederick: it does affect us. systems will become more fragmented. it is less about people leaving, it is about people not coming. many of the successful technology companies in london
are led by non-british citizens. so our business is about talent. and anything that makes talent less fluid will have an impact. francine: thank you for having -- joining us today. frederick court, from felix capital. seat.t, in the driving free at chrysler will report earnings for the first time under its new chief executive. what will we learn about the strategies the predecessor has been developing? live in the lawn next, this is bloomberg. -- milan next. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: economics, finance, and politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. taylor: deutsche bank has vowed to maintain their position in fixed income trading after recording their weakest second quarter in the business since the global financial crisis. income from buying and selling fixed income securities slumped 17% from the year-earlier. >> the pretext profit of 700 billion for the first half and 1.1 billion is a solid number. but most importantly, we have
executed on all of the targets we have set. on the cost side, we went through a material headcount reduction. we have the lowest headcount in the banking system since may 2010 and the acquisition of , webank most importantly have further reduced our leverage. taylor: this hit rochester gave a weak outlook for sales, as their new ceo reshapes the company's strategy. line of the strategy is strengthening the great business we already have in hub,cast, investing in the that for me is an important thing to do because people are wanting to watch our great programming anywhere at anytime. so convenience is important. our investments will be all about making hub a great user experience. taylor: that is your "bloomberg
business flash." francine: thanks, taylor. we have earnings from fiat chrysler in just over two hours from now, the first set of numbers under their new stewardship. the former head of their jeep unit. focus asnts will be in investors seek more information about strategy his predecessor had been developing. joining us from me laugh -- mil an is bloomberg's reporter. what condition is fiat chrysler in? >> today, it has been a crucial day because of they were going to celebrate the fact that, finally, they have managed to get rid of next industrial debt. this is the legacy he is leaving. so today, we are expecting, for the first time ever, fiat to the cash positive.
and there are also reports from the second quarter about operating profits. this is the company they are getting. francine: what are we expecting from the results today? we also will need to show what is the path going forward. we are expecting that the targets for 2018 will be confirmed, essentially. overall, what do investors want to know today? is it strategy? do they just want to find out more from this chief executive after the new chief executive they want to know who they are dealing with now. >> that is true. i think that they will start today, it will be his first public speech, he will say i am not a rockstar, but i guarantee continuity. that will be the main word we
hear today. he has presented a new five-year plan. he was one of the guys on the stage presenting the plan, so i think he will stick with the plan, which calls for doubling profit. francine: thank you so much. bloomberg's italy senior reporter. continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me in new york and we bring you more from our exclusive interview withceo christian going -- sewing. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
fixed income trading. the weakest second quarter since 2008 in our exclusive interview. the u.s. president calls for brussels to drop subsidies as the president goes to washington. may does it her way. brexit,her authority on but does it mean the tone will soften. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. there is one corporate story. deutsche bank. we had an expose of interview with the chief executive. results were not great but he is trying to sound upbeat and he says customers are keen. tom: high marks for their presentation. they have some real work ahead. no question. seeing the stock ebb a little today. it is remarkable how they are
focused on revenue stability. i will not give them revenue growth. francine: we have to try and figure out what it means for their commitment to the u.s. and u.k. first world news. president trump made a late-night proposal on trade before meeting with european union officials, calling on the u.s. and the european union to drop all tariffs, barriers and subsidies. the president meets today with the european commission president, who is trying to head off a trade war. in pakistan, national elections deadly. 25 people were killed in an explosion outside a polling station in the southwestern part of the country. 40 were wounded. thevote will determine central ambitions. polls show none of the parties
will win a majority. negotiation will ensue to form a coalition government. deutsche bank bowing to defend its position in fixed income trading. it was the weakest second quarter in that business since the financial crisis. income from buying and selling fixed income securities fell 17% from one year ago. bloomberg spoke with the ceo. christian: we built of the capital, bring it back to the business and with the processes we have, the franchise, i am confident we will see growing revenues going forward. taylor: riding high in spain and brazil, offsetting a slowdown in the u.k. and emerging-market volatility. posting orderly earnings beating estimates, profit was up in the largest market, brazil. taking on more loans, we spoke with the cfo. >> we saw healthy growth in
latin america. this is positive, in the number of loyal customers, which grew in both cases close to 20%. we have seen in europe, a better quarter, probably the best in a few years. taylor: global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. tom: very good. not much going on. equities flat. 2 cent spread in a bit. euro has not moved in three days. we are keeping an eye on it. european stocks, higher. focus on earnings.
focus on the concern we could have after president trump meets with president juncker. i had renminbi. bank,e had for deutsche let me show you, this is the story. the graphic i want to show you -- this is my chart. i was distracted. thank you to hillary clark coming to my rescue. betweenthe difference bondholders and shareholder return. tom talked about this. analysts say this is not only true for deutsche bank. when you look at equity stress on deutsche bank, ugly. the bank has vowed to maintain its position in fixed income trading after the unit record of the weakest second quarter since the crisis. income from buying and selling fixed income securities slumped 17% from one year earlier, the
chief executive spoke to bloomberg extensively following the results. christian: if i look at the quarter, of the second the material transformation which we did in all parts of the banks in the second quarter, these are solid results. revenues came in, in line with market expectations. the pretext profit of $700 million for the first half, 1.1 billion is a solid number. we have executed on all targets which we have set ourselves. on the cost side, we went through a material reduction in q2 with the lowest headcount in the make since 2010. most importantly, we have reduced our leverage. that results in a capital ratio which, solid number,
speaks for the strength of the bank and gives us now even the possibility to grow in the second half. i think it is solid. reporter: one of the analysts that covers you said, the problem is the revenue attrition has been moving at a faster rate than cost reduction. capital,se this extra extra leverage to implement cost-cutting strategies that slows that error terms around -- or terms that around? christian: it is a clear strategy to redeploy some of that to further grow in the core businesses we want in the second half. that has started. it is clear that in a time like the second quarter, where you reshape your business, reduce certain things on purpose, you also lose the revenues. but for that, we are above
market consensus. i think we are at a very stable and solid development, and now with capital in the back, we can further grow. reporter: can you give a specific, specific plans to reduce cost? for example, you talk about the headcount reduction. you want to get to 93,000 by the end of the year. how are you going to achieve that? what are you doing to cut cost? christian: it is all about having fundamental plans in hand, and have the discipline and execution to execute on that one, on a weekly, daily and monthly basis. that is what we started since april. we have a clear plan where we had to reduce, adjust headcount, be disciplined. it is not only about headcount. yes, we will make our way to come below 93,000 by the end of the year and well below 90,000
at the end of next year. it is more. in all cost categories, we have materially reduced for the second quarter of 2017. we are also working with discipline on all other cost measures. we have technical programs, strategic programs and i see the progress we have done in q2. tom: very good. interview. i have been going through it all day. this is directly from the deutsche bank presentation. it is hard to see. i really want to go to the relative heart of the matter -- tangible book value. 25 .91%. stock is at 10. jpmorgan equivalent number, i don't know where it is. they are miles away from their competitors.
they have such a path to go from 10.99. day, tomke the other hallett on deutsche bank. axis?gent is the x how urgent is mr. savings going into the first quarter of 2019? tom hallett: deutsche bank faces considerable challenges. juggling the loss of revenue loss with takeout. it does not have the luxury to fall back on strong probability in other parts of the business. that limits the structuring assets. german banking, continuing to consolidate at a slow pace, asset management margins pressure persists. competitive,ugely
driving down margins. it could be difficult for deutsche to deploy for the capital. tom: buried on page nine of the powerpoint is a paragraph which talks about leaving the retail business in poland. how much of this solution is just to stop doing businesses? tom hallett: before it was about one billion, in leveraging assets, weather in poland, india. what has happened is they have been put on hold. whether it reasons, has become more profitable or reality is, they are not getting the price they want for the assets. costwill certainly slow savings going forward. francine: do you think deutsche bank is committed to the u.s.?
should it be committed to the u.k.? a lot oftt: obviously it is through the u.k. but in regards to the u.s., the product range there, it requires scale. you get your rates and times business. it is a german corporate bank that requires global needs. it will always have to be within the u.s. to service those term incorporates. -- german corporate's. they are taking the right approach, downsizing. they cannot compete with the jpmorgan's of the world. german corporate's is a must for them. you should not see a full removal out of the u.s. forcine: what does it mean possibly buying commerce back? we talk about these crazy consolidation plays. positiond they be in a to merge with someone else?
tom hallett: we looked at the merger with commerzbank. it makes financial sense. there is a lack of strategic overlap, which leads to limitation challenges. we do the timing of merger talks, they are premature, they are in the midst of restructuring. deutsche bank, limited cash regeneration, execution risk. used for theuld be shift in revenue composition and a mining the network. -- streamlining the network. much more medium to longer term. tom: give us an insight into the future of revenue. permeating their presentation is the battle over revenue, lessening, stability and the hope of revenue growth. i do not buy it for a minute.
90 days out -- how do they stabilize revenue? tom hallett: a lot of it depends on the industry. tom: agreed. tom hallett: low volatility, it is summer, there is a seasonal slowdown. the main part is to do with, retention, morale, what they can do with the front office workforce. you can see that in the increase. they have had to pay out a lot to staff to retain them. they have increased the variable comp going forward in order to keep that staff. i struggle to see much in the way of revenue growth unless they deploy capital significantly, which i think shareholders will be fond of. tom: greatly appreciate this, with our interview. analysis.t, banking
♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance," let's get the bloomberg business flash. taylor: ryanair has had enough of labor strikes in ireland. the airline is cutting the dublin space by 20% for the winter, due to recent strikes by irish pilots. they have had a negative impact on bookings. dropping the most in eight months.
the hungarian carrier cut growth targets, morning of higher uncertainties for the industry in europe because of labor disputes and fuel costs. we had an exclusive interview. >> everyone is following the view of what hard brexit could mean. i am taking the position that we do not know the terms of brexit. it is still being negotiated. we are obviously planning contingencies, like every other business. i hope there will be a reasonable solution. taylor: president trump blasting regulators for failing to approve the acquisition of tribune media. thetioning the legality, suit went to an administrative hearing judge, which could kill the deal. the president said the takeover
would have provided a much-needed conservative voice. francine: thank you so much, taylor. europeanump meets commission president juncker today. the u.s. president had a suggestion on twitter ahead of the meeting calling for the dropping of all subsidies and tariffs. he took a critical tone earlier. >> they sound nice but they are rough. they are coming to see me tomorrow. they are coming to the white house. you have to change. they didn't want to. ok, we will tariff your cars. millions of cars. if we don't negotiate something fair, we have tremendous retribution, which we don't want to use but we had tremendous powers. we have to. including cars. cars is the big one. you know what we're talking about with respect to cars and tariffs on cars.
we love the european union, we love the countries of the european union but the european union was set up to take advantage of the united states, to attack our piggy bank, right? we cannot let that happen. we are working on nafta. if we are able to make a deal with canada and mexico in nafta, there will be no reason to do the tariffs with canada and mexico. again, other countries, we won't have that choice, unless they can do something for us. as an example, if the european union takes off some of the horrible barriers that make it impossible for a product to go into there, then we can start talking, otherwise we will leave it the way it is. francine: how much can get accomplished at this meeting? joining us, the international affairs reporter and geoffrey yu , ubs investment office. do the leaders need to get along
for a deal to be done? >> in the sense that any leaders do, one thing that the european juncker, sees things as competitive. it is a very bottom-line discussion. juncker is the man to talk to. within the eu, the commission is not but in this case, trade, he is the man to talk to. it will be tough. he does not have a mandate to offer a deal. francine: what will come out of it? the tweet suggesting they get rid of all subsidies and tariffs. i mean, that would never happen in one million years. >> there was a very difficult negotiation, which trump was allowed to stall but it was already in trouble because it attacks the sensitive areas on both sides of the atlantic.
that is a very difficult proposition. he wants wants, something dramatic. he wants a concession. will go for is a process. a process that will avoid a full-blown trade war. that is the difficulty. and thehin this marc, trade battle, is a reality. this is whirlpool, thanks to norman for having us on twitter, the president's election, here is the equity markets, the fall off and the gradient on this chart is the plunge. you wonder where the whirlpool is going. doesn't really care about washing machines and dryers in the united states but
it is fitting and together. what does he want when he comes to washington? >> he wants a process. he wants this problem to go away. from the european union point of view, the tariff level on average between the u.s. and eu is around 3%. it is low. they would like to have a trade deal. the commission was in favor of t tip when that was being negotiated. they want a process, not a war. today, how dollar strong is the strong dollar right now? geoffrey: strong enough such that tariffs going in has zero bearings on the main inflation measures in the u.s. this makes the fed's life easier but they will look at the economic impact one way or another. francine: when you look at the
risk and opportunities. at least they are talking. i don't know if president juncker will really want an answer if the eu is a friend or foe of the u.s. geoffrey: this is more meet and greet. uncker's number one priority should to get -- should be to get, what does the u.s. want? if there is a sense of destination, back to be helpful. then you can quantify. francine: what do they want? geoffrey: does the president know what he wants? how much you can tariff me, vice versa? they want a multilateral process. that does not seem to be happening anytime soon. francine: what is the endgame of president trump? midterm elections?
trying to renegotiate terms? think this will be a problem until the midterms. he will not want a solution until midterms because it plays to him. that is their view. we don't know what donald trump wants. theoretically, this is strange. the u.s. automotive industry is not in favor of these tariffs. it is not like the steel and aluminum. the u.s. manufacturing industry does not want it, nor do the labor unions. he is on his own and what does he want? we don't now. tom: we are then ditched do have -- we have an advantage having marc, with us. is this a case where the markets tell the president what to do? the whirlpool and equity price change, dollar dynamics -- are the markets going to be the boss and tell mr. trump what to do?
geoffrey: the president will follow the markets and listen to them but at the same time, when you have strong earnings and the fundamentals coming through and china pushing for a similar market, offsetting rather than discounting the trade impact of domestic stimulus, it is hard for the markets to send a message. tom: tit-for-tat. trump will be one thing and juncker will do another. where are we on the derby with europe? said if hepeans have imposes the 25% tariffs he has threatened on european cars, they will impose tariffs on $20 billion worth of goods. that is where we are. that is the threat. tom:. good thank you so much. greatly appreciated. marc. geoffrey yu with us as well. thehe automotive space,
chief financial officers of gm and ford. robert will give wisdom on an interesting ford. stay with us. this is bloomberg. want to look at new york today. that is muggy. it is not like london. that is like singapore. singapore muggy. for those keeping score. yankees, a trade for the baltimore relief pitcher. good morning. ♪ two, down and back up.
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died. we were expecting executives to me today. i am sure the tone will change. this news has appeared quite suddenly. one week ago we knew he had undergone shoulder surgery. people were expecting a strong recovery. there was the crisis meeting on saturday with the quick replacement and now according to the newspaper, he has died. chief executive most revered in italy. he was considered a rockstar. ashes toiat out of the bring them into this global company that has been doing well. tom: affecting the merger with chrysler as well.
i will never forget at the detroit auto show, 10 years ago, he came onto the floor and i wasn't used to the adulation. approximated ford the magic but it was amazing to see it. what was so interesting was how informed he was. he was not an executive guide. i'm sure matt miller will tell us later -- this was a genuine car guy. fromt like bob lutz another time and place. tom: he was -- francine: he was working 24 hours a day. it was the field chrysler deal -- fiat-chrysler deal, on the first of january a couple years ago. ionne classic.ch let's get to matt miller.
he knows him better than anyone else on the tv side. he will be missed. he was unusual. he was a turnaround chief executive, one that loved what he did. reporter: he absolutely loved what he did. he was a person who worked seven days a week, 52 weeks a year. constantly either on the phone or talking with colleagues, talking with reporters, with customers, employees. he was always looking to make deals. he is most famous for the deal that saved chrysler. he was making a number of other deals. he was a passionate ferrari customer and driver. there he passionate about formula one. he wanted to win a championship. he had done a number of other thats for the family,
helped make them a lot of money, enlarged their legacy as well. he will be missed by a lot of people but his business partners -- because he works so hard -- will probably be the ones who knew him the most in missing the most. tom: underestimated, you know this, his ability to change the finish. ferrari and fiat. i am old enough to remember nuts on the lugs, welded into the metal, they were so poorly made. this was a guy who cared about the floor. when i was remember for, fix itstood again tony. you are not very proud to drive it.
example, he did overhaul the brand. he brought back alfa romeo very successfully. he brought for ari fit and finish -- for ari fit and finish finish, which and was an amazing part of their success. francine: we only had fiat cars. the italians saw him as more canadian than italian. i don't know the answer to this but earnings are meant to come out in 1.5 hours. i don't know whether they will postpone, or if you are a shareholder you change the focus. the family will decide -- the tone will be different. i imagine it will be more difficult for shareholders to get to know the new chief executive today? reporter: i think shareholders
already know the new chief executive quite well. mike manley has been running jeep since sergio acquired it in 2009. he has done an incredible job of running the business. engine, ramgrowth trucks, which he also ran, have been a growth engine for fiat- chrysler, shareholders know who might manley is. i have to wonder what they will do with earnings, if they will still release them in an hour and a half. a lot of people will be struck hard by this. sergio was very successful but also brightened the room. most of the people who were able to talk with them, the reason he has that rockstar aura, is people really like him.
people will be touched deeply by his passing. tom: we welcome all of you do "bloomberg surveillance," worldwide. normal broadcast with us, matt miller with us from frankfurt, francine lacqua in london. the death of sergio marchionne, reported right now, this was expected. he has been grievously ill for a number of days. francine, the reach from genoa to venice, it is northern italy, a manufacturing mecca. means? what fiat francine: if you look at the gave jobs turin, fiat to hundreds of thousands of people. italian pride. we knew where it ended up. only a six years ago,
few people would drive it. that he wass broke replaced -- remember that he was always going to leave next year but from january, 2019, he would have been the chairman of ferra ri. you would be at the beach and people would talk about him because he was one of the very few chief executives italians were really proud because he spoke like an american but kept his italian roots. he was a simple man, always wearing sweaters, focused on work. his work ethic, has shown what he has achieved. tom: that directly is the issue. the aesthetic. maybe like mr. jobs at apple. mr. manley has to pick that up. the other heir apparent, the gentleman in europe resigned abruptly two days ago.
can this company keep that italian athletic? aesthetic?? -- francine: it is really jeep that is driving fiat-chrysler. we have a story where mr. manley has a test drive, and he said the steering wheel needed to be bigger. can we expect the attention to detail that sergio maki on a had -- sergio marchionne had two cars? -- had to cars? reporter: i am not sure. head --as a true year gear head. most of says of -- most of sensitive -- most of
obssesive, they were really into building up their cars. sergio was on another level, more in that luxury space. he was a huge collector of ferraris. tom's question is a good one. i wonder why they overlooked the italian candidate and what that will need to the people of italy who have a strong sense of pride when it comes to the automobile industry? on the other hand, it is all about jeep. trucks, is the brand in terms of making money. alvaro mayo is not what does it for the company at the bottom line. -- alfa romeo is not what does it for the company at the bottom line. francine: sergio marchionne, the former executive of fi
directing strategy from her office. that after months of tension with the secretary and oliver robins. it reinforces her drive to keep close to the eu after leaving. anding us now, geoffrey yu david. first of all, is it as simple as, she is back in charge and we will get a softer deal? or it is never this easy? >> it is never this easy with brexit. i'm very low to stick my neck out on this. the process has been in that direction, getting a close relationship with the eu. quers, she said this is the offer. everyone fell in line. mr. davis walked through the door. now she has new people.
, veryrd from mr. raab much proposing what the government has on the table, the practical solution. the europeans are saying, maybe this is something we can talk about. we heard from the irish foreign minister, from angela merkel. today was the last day of parliament. what we will see over the summer is intensive negotiations, led by mr. robbins, the civil not at in charge of this, rebellious mr. davis but held close by may. francine: does this increase the chance of a complete crash out? is it better to keep brexit, pro brexit ministers closer? it is the million-dollar question. geoffrey: the pound has
stabilized over the last few days. the pound against the dollar, the pound is also held well against the euro. the pound is not taking this negatively. our clients are on the same page, agreeing with us that there will be some kind of resolution. monetary policy will be the main story. tom: what has been the response of the levers? to mays their response to the rescue? >> interesting, watching boris johnson, we have been wondering what he will do next. he could cause trouble. he has got back to his old job. he was an active columnist for the telegraph. he has published two columns so far. one was about the glory of britain post-brexit and the
other was about crime in london. he is staying away from the subject. he is probably going to watch from the sidelines, how this will evolve. no doubt he still wants to be prime minister. now is not the time to force a contest. the same for mr. davis. he will support theresa may from the back benches. they are not willing to be but foot soldiers but they are not trying to unseat her. tom: what is the history of this? what would churchill do? a prime minister, getting on the boat to brussels, actually negotiate with the european royalty? is this original in england or has this happened before? >> this brexit process is unprecedented. time and again we find ourselves in uncharted waters. mrs. may, by saying she will
take the lead, i don't think it will be to and fro on the euro front that much. mr. raab made it clear he will be the number two. that is a big contrast to mr. fors, he was criticized delegating to other people. mr. raab will be in brussels. next to him will be holly. he is the person to watch. the empowerment is crucial. he is kind of popular in brussels. he has spent time there. the europeans say they can do business with them. that leads to this idea that maybe we will get a deal, probably on the softer end of the spectrum. that is what mrs. may has been wanting all along. tom: i have not a clue what you just told me. francine: i do. it's ok. tom: i have to read the
telegraph and find out what boris is doing. on china, geoffrey yu is with us. it has been a most interesting 3 weeks. what is china economic growth? f say about 6% growth in china? geoffrey: it is attainable this year, a slight markdown from plus 6.5% we were expecting. there wast two weeks, talk of the old tensions between the ministry of finance, then the economy falls off a cliff, which was close to happening in 2015. now the market is telling you there will be stabilization. they will push for better growth, trying to offset weakness from the external environment. shanghai is reacting. francine: are they reacting enough?
does the market think it will react more when it can't because of leverage and the financial risk? geoffrey: the market will fear of rolling back the leveraging, and regulations. the competent leadership has made clear, it is not going to happen. it is starting to decorrelated. -- d correlate. equity markets have turned around. francine: how should investors play china story? geoffrey: in terms of e.m. portfolio, equities, china was clear. inclusion was supposed to be the big story for this quarter. foreign investors -- are they going to come back? that is what investors are looking at. tom: what is the trade for? ubs? the confusion of dollar dynamics, is there one currency
where we can be advantaged in the third quarter? geoffrey: yen versus taiwan dollar. purely protection. we are going into volatility. and volatile times, own yen. we were speaking yesterday, markets are going through a turning point. there will be a correction. bonds more than equities. geoffrey: we are not there yet. we are overweight equities, marginally. we have insurance to help. managing risk. we are taken away a hike in the fourth quarter. central banks will keep steady. tom: thank you so much. what a great conversation yesterday with abby on the place of technology. it is earnings season. eileen is with us, working in
venture capital. the sequencing of facebook, the big dog on thursday and twitter on friday as well. the state of technology with eileen burbidge. i am fascinated by the scale we are seeing. this is not normal economics. have you frame the dominance of google? of facebook? do? -- video, of you youtube? it is not normal economics. eileen: it is not normal. this is the new normal. they are not invincible. facebook is only 14 years old. relatively young when we talk about industries it is playing in. there is a lot of four grabs, especially between the big players. apple is coming out next week with earnings. there is a lot to play for, as well as new emerging players. it is not a done deal. tom: credit suisse a million
years ago, there is no second or third or fourth movers, it is winner take all. are we in the middle of that process? eileen: i don't think any of this -- if you look at platforms, messenger clients, e isever, even video, youtub not invisible. instagram and facebook are doing video. none of this is winner take all. there will always be an opportunity for alternate players. francine: good morning. how do you choose where you want to be? privacy issues, if you have a concern that regulators and lawmakers will crackdown hard on privacy --? eileen: you have to be defensive. you don't pick one of these four. you have to look at, we were just talking about china, look at players coming from the far east, from other parts of the
world, you have to look at latin america as well. you cannot pick a clear winner. with artificial intelligence coming in, things like leveraging and video are still up for grabs. even cloud, you have the top three platforms that generate over $1 billion in revenue a year. that is not a done deal. francine: when you look at the asian players, what are you looking at? there seems to be a barrier of entry into the u.s.. some of the components in the ai devices? eileen: i think it will be devices, messaging platforms, alibaba, tencent, all of those have a play. they are getting into autonomous vehicles, cloud platforms, shopping, messaging. they all want a piece of it. tom: this is back to walter
isaacson's great work on steve jobs. when you work in the united estheticwith the a of technology, sergio marchionne did that with automobiles. if you have not heard, he is dead today. important.tic is so the black sweater of sergio marchionne sent a signal. he had not worn a tie since 1997. give us an update on the aesthetic of technology in italy, europe and the u.k.? eileen: it is different between italy, europe and the united kingdom, and obviously in silicon valley. it is different. that is what characterizes uniqueness about these technology hubs.
technology as a more casual aesthetic, focusing less on the user interface of individuals, more about the services and products being delivered. whether they be apple products or tesla, aesthtics mean a lot to consumers. there is a dichotomy. francine: amazon seems to be so big. there was a note yesterday from one of the brokerage companies saying they could level asset management. eileen: depending on the definition of framework, i would be looking at this already as regulatory. when it starts to buy whole foods, making a move into brick-and-mortar, a strong cloud platform, selling $1 billion worth of goods in 1.5 days. there is a lot it has its hands in. as a consumer, we benefit.
they bring a higher bar to delivery and products and quality. as a regulator, you have to look. tom: thank you so much for a tech update, more toward the culture of technology. eileen burbidge with passion capital. much more to come on "bloomberg surveillance," including the president, trade and tariffs. without question, the most important interview, christian sewing of deutsche bank talking about the view forward and the mystery of deutsche bank and revenue stability and growth. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.
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collect the tariffs affect. president trump wants taxes called tariffs. they affected the american farmer. the tariffs will affect mercedes and range rover. at deutsche bank there is far more discipline, there are 7000 fewer bodies. good morning, everybody. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome all of you this morning. we look at the passing of sergio marchionne at fiat. 00 on theat the fiat 5 streets of new york, especially if it is green. there is just a certain character to fiat which he captured. francine: yes, and it is amazing what sergio marchionne has done over the last 10 years.
it is also the day where fiat chrysler reports earnings. just a reminder for all of our viewers and listeners. we found out about 30 minutes ago and it was the click confirmed by a holding company, that sergio marchionne has died. they seem to be going along with releasing earnings. i am sure the tone from the executives will be much different. tom: we will talk to reporters about this. right now with the bloomberg first word news is taylor riggs. taylor: president trump has made a late-night proposal on trade before meeting with the european union official. he is calling on the u.s. and european union to drop all tariffs, barriers, and subsidies. he meets today with jean-claude juncker. jean-claude juncker is trying to head off a trade war. deutsche bank is vowing to defend its position in fixed income trading.
germany's largest lender recorded its weakest second quarter in that business since the financial crisis. fixed income securities fell 17% from a year ago. we spoke to the deutsche bank ceo in an exclusive interview. >> now we build up the capital, bring it back to the business, and with the processes we have come up the franchise we have, i am very confident that we will see growing revenue going forward. taylor: -- is riding high in spain and brazil, offsetting the slowdown in the u.k. and emerging-market volatility. the company posted quarter earnings that beat estimates. climbs in spain took on more loans and --. we spoke with the cfo. >> we saw healthy grows in latin america. this is obviously on the back of positive growth in the number of loyal customers, which grew in both cases, plus the 20%.
we have seen, particularly in europe, probably the best quarter we have seen in a few years. taylor: the architect of fiat chrysler's dramatic turnaround has died. sergio marchionne took over fiat 2004 and -- fiat in later spearheaded the purchase of chrysler. he was replaced as ceo over the weekend. his health had declined suddenly because of complications from shoulder surgery. he was 66. tom: we say good morning to all of you worldwide. we will have much more on this in a bit. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities on one screen. not much going on. i noticed oil stability with the euro elevated just a touch. francine: this is what i am looking at him a very similar to
what you are showing. renminbi after the week that has been quite volatile. stocks seemed to be mixed. we have had some pretty good earnings but a lot of them are now looking at trade as we have these trade talks between the u.s. and european union with president juncker showing up at the white house later this afternoon. the dollar declined against peers. its major --: this is world pull whirlpool. with the long-term big built in whirlpool, the postelection left in whirlpool, and just a rollover in the recent tariffs news. washer-dryerhe manufacture. whirlpool way below the price it was in 2016. francine: i have a great chart
looking at deutsche bank, but not only the share price, but looking at deutsche bank compared to equities, and credit. we will put it on social media. it is a similar picture that we see with a lot of european banks. it is equities performing less well than credit. tom: let us get the coverage started on tariffs and trade. right now we go to washington for a briefing with kevin cirilli. >> i think the president is going to continue to double down in the sense that he will make the case that he believes the u.s. has been treated unfairly. i think most notably the offer that broke overnight insane get rid of all the best in saying -- in saying get rid of the tariffs is something the president has been saying for some time. i think the wildcard is german chancellor angela merkel. tom: i am going to assume
economics is not part of the discussion washington, particularly -- discussion in washington. what was the affect in washington of the residential trade tweets -- presidential trade tweets yesterday? senatored this to a from iowa who i interviewed. they have got concerns because they like what the president is doing in terms of intellectual property on china. they do not like obviously what is going on with steel and aluminum. she was saying that they want to make inroads into the agricultural markets of the eu. should note of course that yesterday the administration announcing that they are going to call it what you want, maybe forrm bailout or subsidies -- senator rand paul is condit farm well for -- calling it farm welfare. francine: kevin, cnn on tuesday
night played a recording of a conversation between donald trump and his then lawyer, michael cohen. how much play is that getting in washington? does that impact the rhetoric on trade? >> i don't see a correlation right now at all. it definitely is dominating the political discussion inside of the beltway. if you really want to get into she weeds, michael cohen' lawyer is a long-term clintonite who has been working as of late with some other folks in conservative circles. watch that dynamic to play out. tom: thank you so much. kevin cirilli, are cheap washington correspondent -- our chief washington correspondent. iss morning stephen roach
with us from yale university. in his book, i am not really sure there was anything about what we are in right now. was it in that volume? stephen: you have to read the book. there is a whole section on balance called -- in "unbalanced" called a bad dream which goes through a fictional account of the collision between the u.s. and china. i said that dreams sometimes come true, little did i know. tom: little did you know. state the fact that this president is a mercantile president? stephen: i think that would be overly kind to a man who really has no appreciation of economics despite presumably attending and graduating from the wharton school.
he makes the comment that you just quoted that the u.s. is unfairly in trade deals, and yet what he does not get, nor do any of his advisers is that we need trade to grow unfairly. we don't have the savings to grow. the import surplus savings from abroad run massive current account and trade deficits to attract capital. trade is part of our solution because we do not have enough savings to grow. professor,ight, but this president trump listen to -- does president trump listen to someone? it is rhetoric. stephen: no, he doesn't. francine: you don't think it is a negotiating tactic? stephen: we are looking for the
art of the deal to actually have some art, and so far it has been tweetsuster, threats, that go from lowercase to capital letters. yesterday, iid lose track of everything he says. i think he said tariffs are great. that to me shows little or no appreciation for the logical response by those nations who are faced with tariffs. reciprocalh retaliatory tariffs of their own. that is why we call it a trade war. it is not a one-way negotiation -- presidentent is believes is taking place. francine: do you think the rhetoric will change after the midterms? stephen: i am dubious that the president will ever changes rhetoric's, but i think that the
midterms could conceivably change his ability to deliver on the rhetoric. possibility,tinct given the way the polls are today. as we learned in the fall of 2016, the polls are not always the most accurate gauge as to what to expect from the american electorate. tom: i want to go to back to the collective memory of morgan stanley. we saw it coming but -- we all saw it coming but we didn't see it coming. --ays setting ourselves up are we setting ourselves up into some form of major market reaction? we see whirlpool rollover, we see story beans -- soybeans eight standard deviations. always setting ourselves up for abrupt market moves with this rhetoric and discourse? stephen: there is a lot of tension and you put your finger
on a number of sources of tension. trade is a tension that is playing out. we also have the unwinding of qe, the fact that interest rates are moving up, the equity markets have basically been fluctuating in a narrow range, and still remain overvalued by many long-term majors. trade in of itself is probably not enough to set us up for a disaster, but it certainly could be a contributing factor. tom: this new word for a lateral -- pluri-lateral. is that just the new talk for regional bloc? is that really what we are doing? stephen: i don't know, it is hard to say. the president has said very clearly that he prefers bilateral deals.
that is problematic in the context of the saving investment balance -- and balance that i just spoke of -- in balance -- imbalance that i just spoke about. it makes no sense to me. francine: stephen roach of yale university stays with us. let's get to another top story. deutsche bank's fixed income unit posted its weakest results since the financial crisis. the cfo spoke exclusively to matt miller about his vision post-brexit. >> the u.k. will always be a key place in the financial industry. london has the infrastructure which almost no other location in this world has, and therefore i think it is wrong to predict that there is no major financial location in london. that is very important for us. deutsche bank will remain in
london. will have a material location, but looking at the events and development, there will be a certain part that we will move over to frankfurt. that depends on the final negotiations. matt: do you have a plan in place for a no deal brexit? >> yes, we haven't -- have a plan in place for that scenario. when you to be very -- look very -- we need to be attentive. we have a plan to be prepared for either scenario. a headcount have number in mind for deutsche bank and the u.k.? >> it would be wrong to issue now any numbers -- headcount numbers. deutsche bank will always have a
material location and the u.k. in london. it will be -- in the u.k. and london. it will remain a very important place to do banking. : i assume you will always have a material location in the u.s.? is that imperative that you have a u.s. presence? it isolutely and honestly not only that the -- around the world want to have one bank which can offer corporate investment banking globally and with the full range. bank also vital for german -- a german bank to offer the support services for german and european client and you -- in the u.s. when i look what kind of market , this is ave
fantastic development. we want to do this. we are in the commercial real estate business in the u.s., and a very successful. we will remain in that business. deutsche bank is a global bank. if you want to be internationally successful you need to have a meaningful location in the u.s., and hence we stay there. matt: how has the business there been affected? there are tax reform moves the president trump has put through that are an issue. the other issue is the trade concerns that have developed. have those policies -- have president trump's policies been a headwind or tailwind for you? >> i think long-term to be there honest, on be very the tax reform it hit us in 2017. we turned into a net loss from the pretax profit. over time it will be positive for us, a lower tax rate.
it does not impact our day-to-day business. , that isade side actually something which in particular hits the underlying economy. i am still of the expectation that we will find an agreement and that the politicians will find agreement on the tariffs side which is mutually beneficial for the economy. that will be good for deutsche bank. ist: jean-claude juncker headed to washington right now. concerns from german carmakers and other people in the german industry about the possibility of tariffs . you lend more money to german businesses than anybody else. what are you hearing about the possibility of tariffs? >> of course everybody wishes that these tariff increases do not come. i am absolutely convinced that overall it is negative for the global economy. on the other hand, i think in particular the german corporates have shown not only
resilience, but the flexibility and adjustment capability to react to various global trends. believe thatdo even if this happens, that there is the capacity to adjust and hence, i think we will also as deutsche make, we will be -- do very good business with german corporates going forward. tom: if you look at tangible book value and the valuation of deutsche bank, this is an extraordinary struggle that we see. francine? excuse me, matt? i was not sure that you are with us with your busy schedule. let us stay with deutsche bank right now and the challenges for them. what is the timeline in germany? i get the timeline in new york, and london, but what is the timeline in germany for the future of deutsche bank? matt: i think the panic that
surrounded the turnaround plans has pretty much drained away now with the shares dropping to an all-time low about month ago. they went under nine euros apiece. this turnaround plan showing so many job losses yet to come. grownms that people have it sort of a custom to the fact that deutsche make is going to be a much smaller operation, it is no longer going to be the international powerhouse that it once was. i think it is interesting that the ceo said he will stick to number four in international -- international and global sales and trading and maybe even do better. francine: what do we know about their commitment to the u.k. and the u.s.? att: the commitment to the u.k. and the u.s. seems to be solid.
he said you cannot be a number four global player in fixed trading if you do not have a material presence in the u.s.. of course they are shrinking their presence there. they will likely move some people out of the u.k. as well, depending on how hard brexit comes. he still believes london is the financial capital for europe and he does plan to have a presence there going forward as well. tom: very quickly, are they too big to fail? i don't understand on a global basis where they fit in. i get what goldman sachs is doing, what b.n.p. paribas is doing. where does deutsche bank fit in five years from now? matt: they want to be the biggest investment bank in europe, so they want to be doing better than that -- bnp paribas, ubs, barclays. are they too big to fail? i certainly wouldn't expect any
german government would make the very popular decision to let them fail? they are still in national champion here. tom: what section of revenue is the biggest mystery? what part of the bank is the biggest revenue mystery for 12-24 months? that fixedld say trading has to be the biggest mystery. it is one that they want to keep being the line to share of revenue, at least 50% of revenue. that is what he described as the court in which deutsche bank's dna is built. tom: that is an amazing statement. francine? francine: let's go back to some other breaking news we have had. sergio marchionne, the former cheese -- chief executive officer of fiat chrysler has died at the age of 66.
our reporter joins us from milan. fiat chrysler were meant to release earnings in about an hour. the tone will be different. >> yes, obviously what we are hearing is that they will report results. the call will still be hosted at 2:00 p.m. milan time. fiat chrysler knows what they have to do. we have been hearing for the last few days, even in this very they all know you have to keep on doing what you have to do, so they will report results. obviously apart from the words for sergio marchionne, i am sure
they will say that fiat chrysler will continue what sergio marchionne has started. sergio marchionne essentially created fiat chrysler. he also owned the culture of the group, thing have italian and have canadian -- being ha lf-italian, and half-canadian. francine: does italy have any other chief executive officers like sergio marchionne? he was not without controversy. a lot of the unions did not like him because he was very business friendly. and to some extent that he would throw away what the italians expected to be unionized. >> yes. if i can tell you something, also very personal, which happened to me. it was much easier following
sergio marchionne in the u.s. than in italy. ?light -- why if you go to detroit he is releasing as a hero. if you speak with workers in the u.s. they are telling you he saved our lives literally. many chrysler managers tell you the same. -- he is much -- a much more divisive person. in 2004 and then moved the center of gravity for the group away from italy. perfectly touch it there. this is the website that broke the news, "la repubblica." i will not translate because my italian is fractured. is there a risk that fiat loses
italian this -- italianness? >> fiat chrysler is not anymore italian. 80% of the profit comes from the u.s.. that is one of the reasons the was appointed. it is clearly u.s. is the center of gravity of the group. maserati, but especially alfa romeo, and maserati are central for the next five-year plan for the group. beryone of those cars will built in italy and this is a legacy that sergio marchionne wanted to give. francine: thank you so much. our senior italian reporter in
milan, who has followed fiat and also followed sergio marchionne very closely over the last decade. sergio marchionne, the former died. fiat chrysler, has this was confirmed about an hour ago. he was 66 years old. it comes just hours after he was replaced as chief executive. his health seemingly had declined there he suddenly following complications from shoulder surgery. that was sergio marchionne. retail.
under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. here is the first word news with taylor riggs. willr: jean-claude juncker
try to head off a trade war when he meets with the trump today. he wants to persuade the president to not raise tariffs on european car imports. president trump is proposing that all sides remain all -- all sides get rid of all tariffs, their ears, and subsidies -- their readers, and subsidies -- subsidies.nd some farm state republican lawmakers are opposed. deutsche bank is starting to see results from the new ceo's turnaround plan. overall revenue at germany's largest lender stabilized in the seconds quarter while cost felt. -- fell. there is uncertainty over the impact of brexit.
>> deutsche bank will remain obviously in london. we will have a material location. there will be certain services which we will move over to frankfurt, but that also depends on the final negotiation, and hence, we are observing closely, then we will take action. taylor: a top bank of england --. we have had -- for some time now, 5000-10,000 jobs. a relatively small move on day one. i think it will be on the bottom and of that range -- bottom end of that range. the question is, where does it go after that? taylor: global news 24 hours a
day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. now on the american economy. with us is stephen roach of yale university. and we are very happy to bring you komal sri-kumar, one of our favorite guess. komal?re you right now, komal: i think we are looking second quarter at a very strong growth picture. third quarter, fourth quarter we will back off and go down the trump tariffs affect will be much more important in my mind than the fact of the tax cuts. the tax cuts had a big effect on the second quarter. third and fourth quarter you are talking about global turbulence. that is what will be the major influence. of thee idea here sustainability of any policy, do you look at most of the
adjustments that have given this make america great again economy is won off adjustments? could there be any follow-on value to those efforts? stephen: the pool full be in whether or not we can resurrect a renaissance in -- proof will be and whether or not we can resurrect a renaissance in manufacturing. making manufacturing again the way it used to be. it will really be hard to recapture that manufacturing led renaissance, so all politicians eventually have to be market to market. that is what the story will be about for the next few years as
it unfolds. francine: you go back to the meeting with jean-claude juncker , the commission and president trump. what role do the europeans have in this? i guess president trump and the administration could have been allies with the european union. they did not decide to go that route. they are going after manufacturing. komal: right. they are going after manufacturing. asked whenent trump he speaks to jean-claude juncker is that all tariffs are eliminated. i think jean-claude juncker has proposals to reduce trade tensions. for president trump it is all or nothing. there will not be a partial reduction in restrictions.
i don't expect much to come out of these talks. i think we are going more and more towards tariffs on automobiles, which along with the escalation of train sanctions with china -- trade sanctions with china, i visited china last week, i found it to be extremely offensive on the chinese side. which arethe areas going to show up on financial markets on their impact in the second half of the year. , do you: stephen roach expect trade to actually become stronger between emerging markets? does the global trade become we shifted? -- re-shifted? stephen: i think the connections for the last -- i don't know, 10-15 years through global value chains, through global supply chains have certainly led to a lot of cross-border linkage
between emerging markets and the developed world. supply chains now will be tilting away from the united states. we have long learned that the emerging markets are good at production, not as good at consumption of any to be -- as they need to be. until they can rebalance their own economies, they are still going to be vulnerable to any type of trade related shortfalls. here --ant to tie it up tie up here something that someone brought up yesterday. that is the gig economy where wage growth is in the united states. ahead of thises , not -- labor arbitrage only internationally but within a country.
what is your observation of the labor arbitrage within america that leads to this wide inequality, and to a gig economy which generates minimum-wage or sub minimum-wage net income to the individual? end to that,no tom. i think it started with the financial crisis. there is a shortage of skills, people are able to quit their faster and higher skill level and income level. home prices are shooting up at the highest income faster and hl level levels, especially southern california, where i come from. the lower income groups and the lower price levels are stagnating. tom: this is incredible. is this a gilded age? have we taken your labor of another time and place? stephen: we are not good at
spreading the gains, we know that, tom. this year marks -- will mark the 10th anniversary of quantitative easing, and if there is one policy initiative i think that has made a significant contribution in the last 10 years to income inequality in the united states, it is the wealth affects coming out of quantitative easing. tom: do you agree with that? this is absolutely critical, this idea of qe over to qt, and it is discrete and separate. stephen: they have benefited from the fed support much more than the rest of the u.s. income --. komal: i would agree completely with what he says. what the purpose of quantitative -- [dropped audio]
if you are at the lower end of the income spectrum you were not able to do so. over the last year, the month on month increase in real wages has now -- the last year we have and therom 0.8% to 0.2% latest month. not only has wage growth been minimal, it is slowing on top of that. the average annual change in real wages since 2009 has been let's this -- less than 0.5% per year. decade. roach was a ahead on this in the slow down on real consumption. francine: i think i asked you every couple of months. are we closer to a recession, a global recession, that would somehow be spurred by the u.s.? stephen: it is hard to make a
call in terms of the exact timing, francine. there is no question that the u.s. economy is extended. the momentum is strong right now. is certainlyarter the high point for this expansion. the tailwinds are in the process of dissipating right now. there are some trade related headwinds, and there is a growing sense of i think uncertainty in the business operating environment with trade policy in the united states completely unhinged, and consumers are going to be facing tariff related increases in imports. that will certainly put some pressure on the sector of the u.s. economy that has been
lagging the most over the last 10 years, the american consumer. komal: i would answer your question by saying, yes, there seems to be no sign of an imminent recession in the united states, but if you look at the signal from the bond market, the 2-10 spread on the u.s. treasuries which increased this week due to fears about japanese bond yields rising have again come down. they have subsided yesterday and today. i see them once again going below 25 basis points. the fed seems intent on increasing interest rates again on september 26. we are talking about a possible inversion by the end of the year, a recession by the end of 2019, in which case it will spread to the rest of the world also. francine: all right, thank you both for your insights. of sri-kumarar global strategies and stephen roach of yale university stays with us.
♪ francine: this is -- taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." u.s. airlines are giving into chinese demands on how they name taiwan on the website. bloomberg has learned that the carriers will begin to change the taiwan reference as online. china has told the airlines their map must identify the island as china-taiwan, or the china-taiwan region reflects beijing's claims on the territory. in the u.k. there was a boost for the new ceo of itb.
at sales were boosted by england's better-than-expected run and by a hit reality show. >> the top line is strengthening the great business that we already have in broadcast, investing in the hub. that to me as the -- is a really important thing to do because people want to watch our great programming anywhere and anytime. convenience becomes really important. hub's investment will be all about making a great user experience. taylor: richard branson is this week's guest on the david rubenstein show. he talks about dropping out of school at 15, and watching his business. take a listen. >> now you are a cert, you are knighted -- a sir, you are knighted. did you -- did you ever expected
to be knighted? i found myself 25 years later knighted.d -- being i was slightly nervous that she remember the words from the record. it would have been a slice on the head rather than a tap on the shoulder. taylor: that was virgin group founder richard branson. to catch the full interview, tune into the david rubenstein show on bloomberg tv tonight at nine a copy of eastern. that is -- tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: i am guessing he did not walk in front of the queen. this is wonderful. therry vanlancker runs akzonobel ship.
stephen roach with us on global process economics. thrilled to have you with us to talk about the actual nitty-gritty of one executive has to do with -- of what an executive has to do with. i want -- deal with. i want to go to the chemicals business. is that gain still working on as a way yourds build revenue and move forward? now.ry: you still see it we have chemicals and then the paints and coatings business. that reformulations of the portfolio continue to be a big part of it. tom: you have a dividend that is extraordinary -- a dividend growth that is extraordinary.
what is the pressure in the netherlands for financial engineering to get ahead? do you want to migrate over to a more anglo-american model? can you stay with that big dividend european model? thierry: i think as a big and global company, you have shareholders from both sides of the atlantic, but all over the world. it is always a little bit of a balancing act between who wants the dividends. european investors tend to be more dividend. in the u.s. you have more of the anglo sax model. i think we have been pretty good about keeping the balance between those constituents. francine: i know picked companies have been raising their part -- paint companies have been raising their prices due to the higher expense of some of the raw materials. how much is should consumers expect prices to rise from here? thierry: you are indeed correct.
we have seen a relatively on presented -- unprecedented increase in raw materials since 2016. in a case like ours, i think it's pretty typical for the market. we by about 5 billion euros worth of raw materials. that has been increasing over 17 and the forecast for 2018 to about six billion. in the decorative business, where we are one of the largest global players, in our performance coatings business or the industrial business for cars and chips, we are about halfway in the journey. it is a must for business. it is a global phenomenon based both on the raw materials of but also dislocations and supply chains that have driven up the price for those materials. francine: when you look at some of your competitors. i know ppg last week said that
the tin which is used for paint cans, they're worried about the trade war affecting those prices. can you quantify that -- the impact that an escalation in a trade were between the u.s. and china would have on akzonobel? abouty: i think thinking specific trade issues is secondary. most of the products that we by and that -- buy, and that we make and sell are within the region that we operate. in that sense we are a little bit more sheltered. we are more worried about what it does for the consumer sentiments. people need to buy paint. what we also see is in the customers,strial some uncertainty, and that is never good for the future. tom: they need paint at the white house right now, no
question. to redo air force one, paid the outside.- paint the what is your number one message on transatlantic trade? thierry: i think certainty is the most important part. we are not politicians, so we observe it. certainty on where we are going is important. that is the same for the transatlantic and for brexit. does president trump changer investment schedule at akzonobel? do you have amend how you create capital, jobs and cap -- profitability. thierry: no. we have 24 plants in the u.s. and the same for europe. paint does not travel well across the oceans. tom: very good.
, werry vanlancker appreciate it. he is what akzonobel. we will go to the trenches of the real world of trade. my computer is locked. there we go. i am working on it. i cannot get a chart up. real soybeans, inflation-adjusted soybeans, stephen roach, back 40 years is an ugly chart. i have got the chart on real soybeans. the answer is we are way down here at historic inflation-adjusted lows back to jfk and lbj. how can the president help farmers with a chart like that? with a long-term disinflation? how does he help him with -- them with tariffs? stephen: it is clear that he has recognized that the perfectly
logical retaliation from the chinese is designed to go to vulnerable sectors of the united states, like soybean farmers, possibly to aircraft producers in the northwest as well, and you know, this is a total disconnect on trump economic policy. he does tariffs, which taxes consumers. he provides direct assistance to 12 -- of 12 billion to provide offsetting support to farmers. so you have got trade policy and fiscal policy being deployed at a time when we do not save, which makes our trade deficits bigger, and puts more pressure on the they flows that the president -- the berry -- very
trade flows that the president seems to be objecting to. are inconsistent and reinforce the in bounces that are already evident in the united states. they will not work. francine: i want to talk about china but we have a viewer question. do you believe that the capital inflows to the u.s. reduce another country's trade between the --? stephen: the capital inflows into the united states are absolutely vital to provide us with surplus savings that we need in order to grow, because we do not save as a nation. do they divert capital from other countries? to some extent. it is not necessarily a zero sum game here, francine. i think what we are seeing right
now and this time of -- in this time of trade related spillover is to argentina, brazil, and other emerging markets, is that if interest rates go up in a post qe climate, that could be problematic, much more problematic for emerging-market economies. add the trade on top of that and you have the recipe for some tension. tom: stephen roach, thank you so much. breaking news. bring up the screen, jason. the idea here of a headline earlier. died.rgio marchionne has right behind it, the earnings of his fiat chrysler, and of course they are dealing with the global struggle that we saw from harley davidson yesterday. fiat chrysler's fiscal year outlook. i am sure they will handle this with grace into the third
quarter. we have much more to talk about. jonathan ferro and myself on bloomberg radio will drive forward the conversation, front and center with jean-claude juncker attending in washington. a data check on the market, it is a quiet summer's day. weakerr remain the -- a renminbi as well. i am focused on facebook and amazon. i am looking forward to see the scale of amazon after what we saw from google the other day. please stay with us across all of our platforms. ♪
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some very good second quarter 2017. bydeutsche bank stands income. they want to redeploy capital in the unit. more from this was an interview with him. mr. younger heads to washington. calls fore juncker both countries to get rid of all tariffs. when gm and ford automakers report higher info costs and president trump wedding at 20% tax on eu imports. david: i'm david westin along steel.very excited alix general motors beat earnings. there was right in line on revenue, but it also took down the full-year forecast. it was apparently coverage of two things