tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 12, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
i'm mark crumpton. the decision by pope francis to accept the resignation of cardinal is drawing condemnation. if was accused of overseeing and participating in a systematic cover-up of child sexual abuse by clergyman when he led the pittsburgh diocese. that theunacceptable cardinal oversaw and participated in a systematic cover-up that he did when he led the pittsburgh diocese.
and that he is not able to retire seemingly with no consequences. in accepting the resignation, the pope asked him to stay on temporarily and suggested he had unfairly become a scapegoat having made some mistakes in handling cases but not having covered them up. the trump administration is appealing the judge's ruling that prevents the deportation of hundreds of thousands of immigrants from four countries who are living and working in temporarynder protected status. the judge issued a temporary injunction last week stopping the administration from ending the protections from immigrant from four countries. granted fromtus is people for countries ravaged by war. it is not safe for some people to return to home who were impacted by hurricane michael.
the hurricane is blamed for 11 with 150 mile-per-hour winds. it rampaged through the florida panhandle destroying anything in its path. >> when you have a type of destruction, there are gas lines and power lines down. you are putting your life in danger and we ask you to be patient before you try to rush back into those areas. we candoing everything to open the roadways and stabilize the situation so people can go home. >> an estimated 900,000 homes and businesses in the southeast are without power. negotiators are considering a new way to break the deadlock in brexit talks. officialsnd british are discussing an extension of the post-brexit transition. that could resolve the impasse on the future of the irish border. the two sides are trying to
reach a compromise before a european summit next week. global news 24 hours a day at tictoc and on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters, this is bloomberg markets but close. i'm scarlet fu. >> i'm caroline hyde. we are in green territory. are seeing since may of 2018. the nasdaq is up. tech has been leading the charge here. this one is up 40%. a software company from san
francisco still decided to go live with an ipo. meanwhile the vix is turning back into the red. interesting to see how investors react in the last 30 minutes of trading here. it happened in europe earlier today. >> we still have names like activision higher. thanks to strong early reviews of all of duty black ops or. there are hopes that maybe it to blunt some of the impact the fortnight is having. the 10 year yield has little change. but bonds caught a bid and we saw lower yield. quick note on the turkish lira, it is not moving at the moment but it had gained almost
4% on speculation of the release of the u.s. pastor. we got confirmation that the turkish court has freed him. >> time now for our top calls. tech, city is upgrading netflix to apply. art -- they are reporting third-quarter results next week. and analyst is upgrading the stock to a buy from hold. and analyst is saying it is not too late for management to find ways to reverse usage trends and improve monetization. >> when you talk about the mysterious disappearance of the journalist.
the second annual future investment initiative is a conference intended to showcase the crown prince modernization plan for saudi arabia. it is still set for later this month. speakers and attendees are quickly evaporating. we know the president is not inclined to block saudi arms sales. becauseare in a pickle you have this future investment initiative conference approaching with all of these big heads of businesses supposed to attend. in the wake of this mysterious disappearance of the journalist, you have a problem that you are in as a business leader. will i show up or not? we have seen a few ceos pull out already.
>> we have heard from a number of technology companies. talk about what i is meant to do and why it is so important for the kingdom to have so many global players? be a is supposed to showcase of the modernization of the saudi economy. it is supposed to represent an opening for the rest of the world and that they can be a real global business center. having this happen in the midst issuch a chilling story putting the attendees in a difficult situation. the is why you are seeing private companies and the media sponsors like bloomberg and the new york times pull away from that event.
>> we will see how this story continues. for more on the politics, we welcome our guests. give us your sense of how much this could affect relations between saudi arabia and the private sector. blow and ahuge self-inflicted blow if it is confirmed that the saudi regime of the the seizure journalist from turkey. he was apparently seized in the saudi consulate in istanbul. now, there are reports from the communitiesurkish that they have intelligence that
this happened in the consulate. -- saudi's created a huge the did not shoot themselves in the foot. bishop himself in the head. ipo oflooking at the saudi aramco to the tune of $2 trillion. this was a flagship product of the ground prints -- crown prince. >> let's talk about what this does to u.s. and saudi relations. the president has been reluctant to take action to punish saudi arabia or cancel any kind of deals. talk about what is at stake in
the president does come under pressure to do anything. >> the president is under pressure from the senate. this is a traditional push pull of power in washington. the legislative branch and the executive branch. beyond that, you are looking at the heart of the disagreements of the american foreign-policy direction for the last hundred years. do we put ourselves as the world's moral leader? do we put our own morality above and beyond our national interest? president trump thinks that our national interest is making business with the saudi's and having saudi as our chief geopolitical outline in the coming confrontation with iran. not only by being there and supporting us and buying our weapons but also because saudi can step in and fill the void
that the decline of the iranian oil sales because of the sanctions will create. about a 1.5 million barrels per day deficit. others can step in and fill the demand. back tokes me think what happened recently in the u.k. where russian -- it would seem they alleged it wasn't true but it seems they went into the u.k. and killed a spy. how much do you think this will sort of international response? will we see sanctions on saudi arabia? i think this puts -- you cannot just go around and motor -- murder people.
i lost a good friend. he was an opposition leader and russia. he was murdered 200 yards away from the kremlin and we don't know who ordered it. many journalists were killed around the world and are being killed this year. journalist, a woman in malta. lines aso draw the red to who can do what. look at china. china is a huge partner for us but at the same time, the level of human rights observation in a place like that is much much worse than anywhere else in europe or the u.s. you make important points there. thank you. we will have some analysis next. we want to show you how equities
this is countdown down to the close. i'm caroline hyde >> i'm scarlet fu. would be theanks big theme but it is giving way to big tex. >> it is still about tech and momentum. when you look at what got clobbered, it was the momentum hedge funds. when you look at what is bouncing back, it's the same ones. i have had my eyes on some of these hot stocks like adobe.
they are all bouncing back nicely. the reversal of what we saw a early in the week. >> great timing for one company, and a plan. they went through with their ipo. >> amazing, and ipo in this market. >> now they can go forward and say it was a successful debut. you mentioned the software companies. way by farading the of 3.4% as a group right now. tech hardware is also doing well. netflix is up. on the flipside, if you look at the worst performers, you have the auto and components index. banks as well. >> they are widely thought to be good but not the story of what is driving the market today. next for the week, a totally different story.
let's look at all the red on the screen. that is only one group finished in the green and that is food and staples. the value names are holding up a little bit better among the best performers. you got industrials and rate related companies doing the worst. market, theverall today hashat we saw accelerated as we head toward the close. >> it was looking ugly in the afternoon. >> it happened in europe. now we seem to be holding. >> we have seven at half more minutes. >> we are eight minutes away from the close. let's dive deeper. square is up 7%. this has to do with the note that was out earlier today
raising the price target to $90 per share. and analysts said it is a truly disrupted well-run company. square is on the precipice of a new wave of thin tech. out they would have had a bad run that had nothing to do with the market correction. remember in november -- september, the shares were up a hundred dollars per share. it was said they should be part of the faang index. it tumbled from there. about the concerns credit risk they were taking on because of their lending practices. then you have the cfo leave. that knocked the shares down a bit. it went below the average analyst price target which is around $83 per share. the price target early this year was $40 per share.
price targets of, aggressively. bullish are staying defending the stock. i am looking at another stock. the shares tumbling 20%. earnings third-quarter are below analyst estimates. why? blamed the u.s. tariffs saying aluminum and steel prices are making it more pensive for them to manufacture trailer and truck bodies. also been difficult because of the trucking industry. there has been a shortage of drivers. there is less demand for their goods. they also see a tight labor market making it more expensive. they're crosswinds
making it challenging for this company. >> let's look at another bounce back. that is netflix. they are up 5.8% now. on the week, shares are lower they are getting a nice tailwind. this has to do with an opportunist upgrade over at citigroup. it went to a buy from a neutral. this is because of their earnings on tuesday. let's hop into the bloomberg and look at the interesting chart. what we are looking at going back to 2007, the blue is the number of subscribers. the white is the share price. we can see they have moved in the direction together which is basically up. last quarter, they missed estimates. i want to point out that the
stock price is declining would suggest it is a buying opportunity if they hit the numbers or is the stock price declining a tell that there could be more subscriber number issues ahead? we will know on tuesday. >> thank you. .hat is it for us u.s. stocks are higher today after a tumultuous week. the nasdaq is jumping more than two and a half percent. i'm looking at the nasdaq. >> it is amazing. , apple,eeing microsoft amazon, and google driving the gains. the nasdaq is having its best day in a year. while becausea the s&p rebounded and is higher. tech is having a
relatively very good day. >> exactly. if you do look at the momentum today momentum is the best performing factor. is the secondt worst. an interesting reversal there. >> i want to bring in george parks. as part of this conversation, you have to look at how earnings is rochus on big banks and we thought we were going to key off of that in terms of sentiment. it feels like tech is the catalyst for the rest of the world. >> thank you for having me on. they did keep in mind is we had a massive flush and growth tech. a lot of growth oriented indices
later this week. to see a bounce that today is natural. the one-day percent change was than standard deviations what the average over the past two years has been. that is a big decline that indicates how badly positions had to get flush this week and how badly some of the more growth oriented stuff got hit. >> how similar has the action thenthe last several days to what we saw in february? i think february was different in that we had the thetility product blowup drupal markets and you had volatility related to trade spilling into cash equity markets. sometime around you saw
aggressive price action in terms of the vix curve inverting. that wasn't what was driving the boat is much. of -- thatthe stuff has gone up the most has been hit the hardest. least orthe stoxx the no dividend have underperformed the most. that is after they outperformed the most since april when the stock market started to bottom out in the u.s. from its february declines. i think it is a classic thing that we see the market structure has seen where positioning becomes the important. occasionally we get these radical sharp position clear outs. caroline: want to bring a back to sarah. we are 25 seconds to the close of trade. untilan said by the depth
volatility picks up. >> a lot of people has said by the depth. a lot of people think the volatility is not over yet. we did not see as much selling as many expected but a lot of by different backs. scarlet: there is the closing bell. all three are closing firmly in the green. we weren't sure the weather we were to sell off in the close. theit looks like gains of s&p, dow, and nasdaq. joe: we got a little bit of a drop at the close. we still gained nicely, but if there was the chart, a fall right at the last second of trading. that's kind of striking because we are up over 300 points on the dow a couple of seconds ago. caroline: the s&p 500 having its best day since april 19. scarlet: within the sectors, you
have investment trusts in the red off by a 10th of 1%. utilities are also not doing well. some of those bond proxies not doing well. discretionary -- tech, consumer discretionary is doing well. saw generallyy we a selloff in u.s. bonds as well and we ended up -- as we head toward the bond market close, yields tipping up ever so slightly, but it will be interesting to see how this correlation continues. lisa, what are you watching? >> we have been talking so much about trade this week and how trade tensions are adding to the concerns and jitters we see in the market. china put out data overnight showing the trade surplus with the united states reaching a record high of $34.1 billion. this chart shows it probably
cannot last. it shows companies are -- terroristtheir that come into effect. chinesee line is exports in the blue line is the new orders for manufacturing in as peopleing down look ahead to when the rxrorists are implemented -- -- tarrifs are implemented. abigail: what a week. then god it's friday. let's take a look at the s&p 500 down 4.1%. today, we have a rebound rally. the best day since april. a battle between the bulls and the downtrend says the sellers are in control on the trade uncertainties. at one point, the s&p 500 up 15%
year to date. some of the selling we have seen could simply be a matter of too far too fast. we have been looking at the s&p 500 chart relative to the two hundred day moving average and it is interesting because joe made the point that at the close there was selling action which made a bit of change. here is a longer-term chart of the s&p 500. yellow 50 day moving average, blue is the 200 day moving average. we are above those averages except for the volatility earlier this year when there was lots of uncertainty around rising rates in the effect on the economy. then, the bulls took it away again. this week, right below the 50 day moving average. yesterday close below the 200 a moving average for the second time in two years. it looks like we will get a decent close. we have a little bit of selling pressure that joe was mentioning, but something i would like to mention, the 50
day moving average is ramping down. someone consider that is more bearish than being below the 200 day moving average. it really tell you the near-term buyers are disappearing and the long-term sellers stepping in could make for fireworks. go back towould something joe mentioned earlier about selling. when you look at the uptick ,ersus the number of downtick the number of sell orders versus buy orders, it was in favor of the buyers up until about 3:58 -. we went negative on the uptick, downtick. this is not near as bad as we saw yesterday. the number of down tax that outpaced upticks reached at one point -1800. those the were set we saw at any given point in time during the trading day since may 6 2010.
that was the day of the big flash crash blamed on our griffins there. when you look at the volatility -- algorithms there. when you look at the volatility, it was not as bad as we saw at the beginning of the year in late january with the selloff that suggests while you have a lot more stocks being sold off this week, the actual volatility was more orderly than back then. caroline: our entire markets, stick on that theme. the downtick chart was fascinating coming from romaine. let's take it over to george who is still with us. this is something you have been highlighting. what does it say to you about the volatility in the market? i think it is helpful to explain what the chart represents. the chart shown should have shown the lowest take reading on the day. what this indexes, throughout the day, it counts the number of
down takes or the number of upticks less the downtick's. sellthere are big programs, lots of stocks being sold all at once, that index comes in low. what we saw yesterday afternoon was a really low reading. huge numbers of stocks across a large scope of the market, not just large blocks of stocks but a broad array being sold all at once. that is relatively uncommon to see such an extreme rating. this is the second biggest reading we have ever seen. when you see larger downtick readings, the low to greeting on the day being negative like that, you tend to see outperformance going forward. not massive, but over the next day as we saw today, week, month, and the three months, you see outperformance of the s&p 500 relative to the close on the day that you see the downtick.
to us, from a technical perspective, it is a capitulation moment. people say i cannot take the selling anymore and i have to get out. that is a really good sign we are reaching a bottom in the market. among other things, we looked at that and said it is a good sign that the big waves of selling are played out and there is not much left to go. joe: do you have any other measures you like to use for gauging something like capitulation? it is hard to know in real time. . is is: technical louse more -- technical analysis is more art than science. that take and next is a good example in real time for extreme readings you can see. one thing we like to look at is the standard deviations from the 50 day moving average. that tends to show you how extended stocks get. another one people like to use is the 14 day rsi. when you see extreme readings over three standard deviations from the 50 day moving average or and rsi reading in the
mid-20's, those tend to be pretty strong moments of selling that cannot be sustained. at extremenot drop high percentage levels on a sustained basis. especially when the global macro backdrop is not negative. there is risk and concern about slow growth, but the whole of the economy looks in pretty good shape. to see massive position clear out, you get these sharp drops but they tend to not sustain themselves because it is positioning driving the market as opposed to a fundamental reevaluation of where the global economy is and so forth. scarlet: you make a good case for why we might have turned the corner, but sarah, earnings season started today and they are pretty good overall. george: a lot of -- sarah: a lot of people were
looking for the saving grace today to be the saving grace. if people were hoping earnings would be the saving grace, that was not the case. jpmorgan was the big-name leading stocks forward, but the numbers were very good. a lot of people are looking forward to guidance. what does this mean going forward? it is not a positive sign going into next week when we have other big names on the tech side. netflix reporting that if there is any small miss, we could be lower. caroline: a really good thing to mall over. sara, thank you -- mull over. sarah, thank you. scarlet: that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in for "what'd you miss?" where we talk to the cfo of wells fargo on bank earnings. this is the close. ♪
caroline: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. here's a snapshot of how u.s. stocks closed the day. in the green. had the best day since april 2018. joe: "what'd you miss?" caroline: turning a corner, wells fargo is not fixed its problems it has stopped its revenue slam. we will take -- speak to the cfo. emerging markets are reliving their 2015 nightmare, could a u.s. stock correction be the thing to rally?
now, big banks are paring earlier gains on lower credit costs. green.ks closed in the the bloomberg senior analyst. why is their lack of euphoria with these? there lack of euphoria with these? saw very good numbers, but if you look at jpmorgan, the big surprise was credit. it continues to get better and better. the question is, our view is that it should continue to support earnings, that the further improvement, the delta in improvement, there's not a lot more you can do if you are already at this strong level. joe: what did we learn about rates from bank earnings? on one hand, people talk about
how a flatter curve is good or bad, and on the other hand, you talk about higher rates being bad for housing. how are they dealing with the changing rate picture? alison: there are a couple of factors at play. the short-term rates, we have continued to get increases and we have the increase at the end of september helping fourth-quarter earnings and interest margin. we actually did see better than expected margin had to jp. i think will b -- we will hear more about to from regional banks reporting next week. side, weterm rate still have mortgage volumes better than some may have expected at wells fargo and jpmorgan, but the risk is coming to this quarter since the big leg up in yields came at the beginning of the quarter. mortgages are most sensitive to those rights. romaine: talk to me about some of the regional banks. we saw a big selloff in pnc despite a relatively decent quarter. alison: i think it is all about the guidance.
seemst cover pnc but it there is a lot of doubt around pnc being able to meet their targets. they are sticking to them. the one comment i saw was that we are investing in technology and we have higher expenses. you're seeing that at all of the big companies i do cover like jpmorgan, bank of america, jp morgan. some of the benefits you are seeing in the numbers of revenue, that is important going forward as we worry about competition and overall consumer competition. banks need to be competitive. on technologyend to be competitive. caroline: great to get your expertise, alison williams. we're joined by wells fargo's cfo. price, it your stock know it's not everything, but talk to us about the future. you had a good quarter in the
past and many are worrying you cannot sustain that growth. >> we had a great quarter this quarter. specifics, we generated $6 million of net income, return of equity was near fall percent, revenue was up, expenses were down, credit was strong. good signs of momentum which were missing for quite a bit. all of that was strong. on a go forward basis, it was a combination of things for all banks or maybe us in particular. -- there valued price-to-book multiple is the reflection of the r.o.e. of every bank. over the last out seven years, there is a straight line that goes through banks that have pulled back even in spite of good results. they have been above that line for a. of time because
people have expectations built in for what their future r.o.e.s might be. we deliver against sustainable r.o.e. outcomes or otherwise convince people r.o.e. is not at risk. there really is a clear connection about delivering return on equity which comes from revenue growth, expense control, controlling the denominator. we returned about $9 billion worth of capital this quarter which is part of that calculus as well. romaine: let's go to the consumer side of the business. we saw weakness there in loan growth. is also curious as to what going on specifically with some of the credit card businesses and the point-of-sale in that area. payments, point-of-sale payments, we are a bigger debacle issuer than a credit card issuer. we're the biggest in the u.s..
-- debit card issuer than a credit card issuer. we are the biggest in the u.s. i think it is an expression of vibrant consumer activity which is contributing to the strong overall growth we are having nationally. inh respect to credit cards particular at wells fargo, we are relatively under indexed. we have probably $50 billion worth of credit card debt and $30 billion of that being for core general-purpose. we launched a new product called attractiveh is an product from a no fee high rewards perspective. we would expect to grow faster than the average bank is indexed in that way. joe: when it comes to thinking about rates, it goes into directions. ise people say the economy good which is what is driving up rates, or people say rates are going up which is a threat to the economy. which of those framings of the
rates picture makes more sense from your perspective? john: it depends on which end of the curve you talk about. the policy rates which are orving media bank earnings having a bigger impact on asset prices because people are funding risk assets with short-term funding, they have an immediate benefit and are reflecting. the fed's perspective are getting back to a normalized level above 3% based on how deep we are into the cycle. further out on the curve, we had flattening and it has gotten less flat getting up to 325 and the tenure is not that high any longer. what has happened over the last two years, every time we kick up over 3%, and we are somewhat above that, a lot of buying occurs. including buying by banks. the thing missing in our earnings calculation or earnings capacity over the last few years is parallel shifts in the curve.
as a got flatter and we generated excess cash including re-investment of amortization, we had been reinvesting them at lower rates. now we reinvest them at higher rates. traversed they, there is a benefit their. -- perversely, there is a benefit their -- traversely, there's a benefit there. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪
in tesla investors' mouth. they have submitted a trade application -- and a plan jumped more than 40% on trading. they compete against companies such as oracle and others. what a day to have an ipo. that is your business flash update. facebook is releasing details on its previously reported hack. report 14 million users had intimate data stolen including search results and recent locations. here is sarah frier from san francisco. the overall number was downgraded on who was affected, but it is pretty unnerving but data these people have. sarah: 30 million people overall had their access tokens stolen
which means hackers were able to get in. upon further investigation, facebook realized of those 30 million, half of them had the sensitive information you're talking about, the search information, location information. that is not something someone to get from your profile publicly so it is very concerning. that sort of data is difficult -- people don't really share that on the web otherwise. joe: on the one hand, fewer thane may have been hacked the initial headline number that came out, but the people that were hacked, i think there were 14 million, a had pretty intimate details revealed. what kind of stuff for the hackers able to learn? sarah: the hackers rape able to learn also took things. their religion, gender, location, hometown. all of this information that,
when you have personal information go on the web it gets scraped by hackers, it is almost -- it is different than critical information and password information. you can change those things, you cannot really change your personal identity info. this is stuff that could be useful to these people for years to come. we don't actually know the motivation yet of the hackers or who they were. has beensaid it working with the fbi and the fbi advised them not to tell the public who they think was behind the attack and why. romaine: regardless of the motivation, wise facebook and some of these other companies having some much trouble protecting the data? -- talked about the absurdities of the tax. -- hacks. sarah: this hack strikes at the
progress that facebook has tried to make in remaking trust with users. after the cambridge analytica scandal revealed all of these third-party app developers got all sorts of personal information from facebook users beyond what they would expect. zuckerberg himself said that if we do not have control of your personal data, we do not deserve to serve you. months later, they still don't have the control. as much as they are investing in security and hiring people to holes, there is still the fact that their service has been built in this way that may not have seen all of the problems until it is too late. release the really stuff on friday as some sort of friday news number or is that something cynical journalists say on twitter? sarah: and facebook's case, there has been all sorts of cynical news written all week. scandal over their
head of policy appearing at brett kavanaugh's confirmation hearing in support of him. we had their release of portal device that they want to push into people's living rooms to be a video chat device and a home which got all sorts of security blowback. -- in the home which got all sorts of security blowback. it's a tough time to be facebook in answer to all of these skepticism's about their intentions. caroline: and not only to be trying to sell products in your homes, but that a video at the same time. joe: it's weird to categories are -- categorize that is something. what are they doing now the makes people think? caroline: indeed. joe, thank you, sarah frier, great reporting. we keep talking tech in our next
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mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. search and rescue operations are underway in florida where hurricane michael and its 155 mile-per-hour wind rips apart -- ripped apart lives and community this week. the storm staggered a state that has withstood some of the worst hurricanes in history. >> people are hurting and they are going to be hurting for quite a long time. resilient, and they will rebuild and it will be and a community
coming together in crisis. mark: the death toll from the storm stands at 11. fema is warning residents of the hardest hit areas that down power lies in the amount of debris and unstable structures make it too dangerous to attempt to return home. pennsylvania's attorney general asked legislators to do the right thing and change state law so civil cases can be pursued in court and decades-old clergy abuse cases. josh shapiro's today after pope francis accepted resignation of a washington cardinal. in august, a scathing grand jury report found that the cardinal covered up a sex abuse while running the diocese. he is allowed to retire with no apparent consequences. agrees -- anber abuse survivor agrees. >> retirement is a good thing.
but our priest was a known pedophile, and he was a known pedophile when he was abusing us and found out five years before. in accepting his resignation, the pope asked him to stay temporarily and suggested he had unfairly become a scapegoat. turkey is rejecting president trump's assertion that u.s. pressure contributed to the release of a house arrest. from an american pastor. he was free today after two years of detention following his conviction on charges related to a failed 2016 coup. his lawyer says he is expected to return to the united states. repairing --ram is preparing for refugees likely to flee to turkey if a conflict breakout in syria.
the executive director says the pre-positioning rations from short-term medium-range along the turkish border." he added that syrians do not want to leave home. , it costs us about $.50 per day to feed the syrian inside of syria. that is actually almost double what the normal cost is but it is a war zone. to support the same syrian in on humanitarian support is 50. over 10 is estimated million people in syria suffer from or are at risk of hunger. he added quoting anything we can do to address food security is a win-win for everybody. congo is reporting five new ebola deaths in the latest outbreak.
the health ministry in congo says the number concern of ebola cases are 170 including 95 deaths. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. at this is bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. and analyst joined us on the slow last month -- show last month to talk that square would join the ranks of the faang stocks. >> the market is so big that there is room for growth for everyone. when you look at square specifically, some of the things they are doing, you see competitors becoming a me too and doing the same thing. that is the best sign they are doing something right. joe: since october 1, i think that was late september, square
stock has tumbled since then by about 25%. allthis change helped at and he joins us again. dan, there are a couple of things. square was a momentum darling until it got clobbered along with others. seemedarture of the cfo to unnerve investors further. what was it about sarah frier's role that really spooked investors? dan: she has been the face of the company for investors. if you look at the typical roadshow the companies make, she was the person meeting with investors, and the mistake people are making is that they are thinking that and interpreting it she is the intimate of engine -- innovative engine. cfos wene of the best have experienced, but there is a lot of behind square that is more than just sarah frier. ishink the innovative engine
unlikely to get hurt because of her departure. you saw that in trade yesterday that a lot of people took that seriously. romaine: talk to me about the underlying business. there were other analyst notes over the past couple of weeks that focus on the credit risk and how square was pushing into certain types of lending that those lenders might thought might not be wise or carry baggage. dan: it was a momentum thing. the worries came at the same thatand on the same day the other faang stocks took a hit. it as a faangbout stocks, it goes down with the faang stocks, so maybe it is a faang stocks. we looked little bit at the installment product which they are making. what square does initially is test things out on their own balance sheets and eventually,
if it becomes big enough, they can resell it. if you take the best example of this, square capital, there was a huge worry two years ago the square capital would be a huge burden on the balance sheet. all they're are doing with square capital is taking a commission beat and not alone on the balance sheet. this is a product that they are testing. it could be very important. it is step one in potentially -- we have been saying their disrupting the payments ecosystem because you could potentially go around the networks. so you are going directly and lending directly to the consumer . you don't lend through credit. i would take a step back and think about the big picture. i see this as a positive, a step forward. i would not worry about the risk. caroline: 10-year note, use a look at the fundamentals and you also look at it on a technical level. you think the institutional buyers could propel the stock
and two is in it from your point of view? dan: for my conversations with investors, there are a few large ones on the sidelines today. the pullback -- i'm sure there's a lot of people that said this has been such a good stock and i did not fully appreciate the disruption of square and i wonder if the pullback would help them pull the trigger. a lot of people have done the work on the buy side and have been waiting for an opportunity to buy back end. that might be the opportunity. i would encourage everyone to buy on this. romaine: do you think some of that institutional money is elsewhere? competitorslot of to square. maybe they don't have the visibility to consumers, but there are a lot of competitors. dan: what i'm seeing -- i would not necessarily suggest take it from another payment company and
put it into square, you can take it from cash and put it to square, what we have seen with you getstors is that more and more tech investors who are not traditional payment investors who are trafficking square. you go from tech to internet, to payments. i've always said square is a technology company that monetizes through payments. that is the thing that has to be understood. it does not come at the expense of networks, paypal, or any of the other guys. joe: when sarah frier departed, one of the questions was did she leave because she could not assume the ceo role. joe: should jack dorsey give up the ceo role for someone else to run or do you think results are speaking for themselves? dan: i think the latter. if you think about a couple of things, they have job -- done a tremendous job in disrupting payments. every product is something people have not thought about an
acute surprising. i would think him leaving that's role is much more dangerous at this point than the cfo leaving. she is great and amazing. everyone has a replacement and the company will continue to thrive after sarah. caroline: when you first came on a couple of weeks ago, he said square deserves to be in the faang industry group. when we decide it actually is? when can you decide that the valuation is enough or that you are correct? dan: i think you would see it when my numbers, which are projecting 45% for the next three years, would prove to be conservative. then you will see that that would be the proof. my estimates, we are expected 45% over the next three years. this is a conservative estimate. if they're going to be the estimate, that merits a faang like aura. caroline: thank you for breaking
it down there. speaking of faang stocks, netflix is reporting third-quarter on tuesday. how important is this for the entire industry group? romaine: i think if they can netflixon some metrics, is kind of separating itself and not in a good way from the faang. joe: when i think about netflix, i think of a company with fast it -- fantastic execution and nowhere near making a lot of ofey or the ultimate triumph hope. the stock has not rebounded after the selloff last quarter. it has not done terribly like facebook, but it will be interesting to see if it can catalyze the optimism after these numbers. caroline: you have to hold your nose when it comes to valuation. romaine: you could say that
about half the tech industry. we will see what they are spending. the real question for a lot of inventors -- investors is what is the next chapter. they have been writing this pony for some time and at one point, you have to evolve. joe: i keep hearing readings about other companies launching competing services but i never see them, so right now it is netflix's runway. caroline: you have apple tv and amazon. there's a little bit, but netflix only has the new season of oranges the new black. breaking news for you. portugal's credit rating has been revised to investment grade by moody. it changes the outlook to positive. a little bit a good news for portugal. this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: breaking news from the brunson is supposed to be arriving in the u.s. and this is after he was driven guilty in turkey but he served his term and has been released. it seems he is on his way home to the united states. so says the white house. it's time for a bloomberg business flash. was to give the new boss more time to get to know the struggling company. it is pushing back its third-quarter earnings report to october the 30th. the ceo is wrapping up business. the company ousted the former chief and said it would not meet profit expectations. trump economic advisor
has a new role and is now the advisor of the blockchain startup wants to change how banks share data. opportunitya unique and is formally the president and chief operating officer from goldman sachs. that is your business flash update. recovering from a selloff this week. investors are still feeling the pain, particularly in e.m. which had a horrible run. here is a chief macro strategist. thank you very much for coming back on the show. what you make of this week? a lot happened. >> a crazy time to come on. at the end of a wild week in markets. we need to take a step back and see what the landscape is and what people are talking about. it going into the main risk in was post fomc, the
gap the between the fed stock, -- fed., and it was the speed of the move that i think caught equity investors off guard. bonds spilled over and as markets reflected, you have a bigger move throughout the week. the nature of the selloff changed in the middle of the week and we start to get instant earnings data out of things like though they beat earnings, they missed on gross margins citing pressures from trade issues or oil pricing increases. there was a story about can the going to isates, there something more fundamentally wrong under the table.
there is loan growth concerns and they have hurt regional banks. that is interesting because when you look at the fundamentals of the economy and how the market is pivoting on that, they're not completely divorced from what was going on with rates. mayank: absolutely. when we look at what other problems, the first thing to look at is what is going on with the economy. earlier this week, we put out a primer for risktakers on how to think about the u.s. economy in a more practical way. what we see is the economy is mostly ok. none of the signals are flashing problematic. you can sometimes get a gap to 20 economy ok and we might be in that sort of an air pocket where the data is fine but certain like traderning oil, might be negatively impacting earnings. romaine: when you mention oil,
you have to talk about inflation and inflationary effects. should we bed seeing brent at these levels and expectation to go higher? mayank: that is a great question. my colleague covers energy for us in his perspective is that oil prices are going higher in the foreseeable preacher -- feature -- future. in a narrative sense, that could be a problem for markets. people start to say ppg is a problem for them, it is increasing costs, are they willing to pass on these costs to customers causing inflation or are they burying them and -- bearing them and have market compression. caroline: what i like you bringing up his volatility because everything is hinged on that's.
jpmorgan saying by the dip unless volatility is back up again. barclays is saying volatility have had the systemic selling because of the vix picking up. e we see thew sudden volatility. how much of volatility would explain why we can nosedive lower? mayank: abbvie time is looking at fundamentals and half is looking at non-fundamentals which are factors such as the one you mentioned which are microstructure factors. these are not driven by earnings, they are driven by pricing. as the prices fall, not only the guys -- it is difficult for people to
see the size of these and what the impact is, but it feels like that is part of what caused a 3% followed by 2% move in today's. there is quickly, rally in em currencies that have gotten beaten down lately. are we getting close to any sort of young bottom -- of e.m. bottom? mayank: i think the direction of high assets including the e.m. and sectors in the u.s., is tied together for the same mast. if u.s. markets can recover, it will result in a bigger at an em. the fundamentals take a big step back here in the short-term. in the medium-term, earnings have been decent in the e.m. a base from which e.m. assets can build off of again. caroline: fantastic to have you with us.
breaking news for you, we talk about relations between the u.s. and saudi arabia. thep is speaking saying saudi arabian journalist missing is a serious problem. he says he will be calling the saudi king over the missing journalist. trump says there was no deal , the pastor in turkey flying home. lots of geopolitical tensions currently being navigated by the white house. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
it.s get down to october 17, can i go somewhere and buy marijuana in canada? >> it depends on what province you are in. , it will be online only. i went to a briefing on how that would work yesterday. ableally, you will not be to have legal marijuana on day one. i suspect that means that they were still be people smoking on the streets here. they will find other ways to get it, but you will have to order take one toill three days on delivery, so the earliest you can have is october 18. other provinces will have stores you can buy it in on october 17th. joe: how high are the expectations in the imminent quarters ahead for some of these canadian players now that the legal market is opening up, and will they be able to deliver? kristine: they are extremely high of the stock valuations, but we are starting to get cautionary tones from some of
the ceos. one reported their earnings, the fourth biggest cannabis company, and they are quite pessimistic around the producers ability to meet demand in the first few months of legalization. he thinks there will be sold out supplies across the country. upis confident free can ramp demand in medium to long-term, but in the short-term, he will have issues. he said at that is not recognized -- recognized by january, they might see a failure. caroline: thank you for telling us like it is. of course, that is all we have for "what'd you miss?" romaine: "bloomberg technology" is up next. joe: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪