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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 6, 2018 4:00am-7:00am EST

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francine: election day open shortly in the u.s.. most memorable midterms in recent memory. china's vice president signals a readiness to talk trade at the inomberg new economy forum singapore. as trade concerns rattled confidence, the chief of exxon says his business depends on free trade. our business depends on free trade, and we are a big believer that economies are best served by open, free, and fair trade. anytime you put restrictions, it
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has an impact on our business. francine: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua in singapore for the new economy or. forum. tomorrow we will speak to the new chief executive of global science, and the former treasury secretary hank paulson. in on let's check markets, we are seeing a little bit moving sideways especially when it comes from europe. i am looking at what is happening in europe and putting it into context at what is happening in asia. it is a little bit of a mixed picture across global stock markets. investors are entering into a holding pattern while they wait for the u.s. midterm elections. on your screen, edging lower with american futures.
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the pound extending gains under brexit hopes. the dollar is pretty much steady. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. has repeatedtrump that he will clinch a trade deal with china because both sides want a solution. he told a rally he is certain beijing wants to talk, and he will insist on agreement that is good for america. in new economy forum singapore, chinese vice spoke about china-u.s. relations. he warned about uncertainties ahead. political and economic landscape is under its most profound change since the end of the cold war. giving rise to many destabilizing factors and uncertainties. taylor: the founder and ceo of
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fedex is tried to ship goods earlier to beat terrorists increases read in an interview with bloomberg television, fred smith said fedex will try to make up any tariffs in other markets. >> china is a huge and important market for us. tariffs of our overall eligible revenue, it is about 2.4%. we take things to and from china from a lot of different places, europe, southeast asia, europe. stay with bloomberg for full coverage of the inaugural bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. leaders from around the world will engage with some of the most significant changes and challenges. we will bring you exclusive interviews throughout the day. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. we have a lot going on. u.s. voters going to the ballot closely watched, expensive, and worried about congressional elections in memory. democrats are expected to take the house, while republicans will hold the senate. what does this mean for markets and policy? there is one man we want to speak to. ,e is dr. mohamed aly el-erian and he joins me here. thank you for joining us. depending on the outcome of the midterms, would it change the composition of foreign policy in the u.s.? does it influence trade or taxes? dr. aly el-arian: the consensus expectation is the democrats take the house, and with that,
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we neither go forward or back. we do not go forward on further tax cuts, but neither do we go back on what has been done before. the market has priced that in. if thatsurprise expectation does not materialize, you will see huge swings in the market. both the house and senate, the markets will say let's go .urther with tax cuts plus in the bond market as well. you will see higher stock prices, higher yields and a stronger dollar. francine: does it mean trade wars? dr. aly el-arian: trade wars is less of the issue because that is up to the executive branch. trade, what is
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the scope for tax cuts? what is the scope of deregulation? and a third is infrastructure, with trade the fourth. one upside of a divided house, you getth a capital m, an agreement on the infrastructure. both parties see the importance of infrastructure. francine: 2020 the your everybody says to watch out. it could be the end of the tax cuts, and we could see a recession. republicans hold onto both things. would it make it less likely that 2020 is an ugly year? like anyl-arian: country right now, the major challenge facing the u.s. is the handoff of cyclical sources of growth to structural and the secular ones. in europe, that handoff has failed and we see the cyclical influence decline and no handoff battle. in the u.s. we have somewhat of a handoff, and we hope we can
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reinforce that handoff. the structure is the way to do that. it is important we get further policy progress, otherwise that handoff will be challenged. francine: if the democrats get the house and senate, what does that mean? dr. aly el-arian: if democrats get both houses of congress, you will see investigations, talk of impeachment, talk of going backwards on certain economic legislation. the markets will take that badly , if it happens. both treasuries and the dollar? dr. aly el-arian: yes, that would be the expectation that we would get gridlock and major fireworks over the next two years. the market is comfortable with what is the consensus around the country of one house going democrat, but any of the other extremes will cause major moves. francine: what is your take on
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the southeast asian economies? they have potential outflows and trade concerns. is it uglier? dr. aly el-arian: the contrast in asia is amazing. if you look at asia on a standalone basis, it would be positive. asia is it in a neighborhood where trade, stronger dollar at some point high oil prices, market volatility and financial conditions is a hard combination to manage through. ultimately, what happens in the neighborhood is going to be important for asia. francine: is the most important thing for the markets in the short term? dr. aly el-arian: no the most important thing in the next quarter is the type of divergence. people underestimate how much divergence has played.
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the virgins and economic performance and policy has a massive dispersion. the s&p has outperformed emerging markets twice. treasuries have gone up significantly by 80 basis points, and the bund has not moved. key is tontinues, the what extent the virgins continues, and therefore at what point should we start looking at the huge dispersion. i expect we will see furniture divergence. -- further divergence. fade the dollar strength, the treasuries and bunds, that trade
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will come, but not just yet. francine: thank you so much, dr. mohamed aly el-erian. you can follow the conversation and joined the debate by going to our markets blog. , dr. mohamed aly el-erian stays with us. we will talk about the elections and bring you the latest from the key races with special guests including the dnc chair tom perez. special coverage on the midterms tonight. this is bloomberg. up next, we talk africa, natural resources. this is bloomberg. ♪
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president trump: these guys are making a fortune because of me. it is true. whoever heard of midterms? ,o one knows when midterm is but you have to go vote. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." the francine lacqua here at bloomberg new economy foreign. i am excited to talk to our next guest. african leaders are working on a free-trade agreement to cover the continent. ghana and kenya were the first to ratify the deal. they will eventually create a trade block with a gross product of more than $3 trillion. alhaji aliko dangote joins me right now. a little for making bit of time to speak to bloomberg tv. talk to me about your project. are you worried about the world delay anynd will that
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kind of ipo? , we havet the moment .ur refinery and projects the refinery is 650,000 barrels per day. do you think it will be done by 2020? will it be done by the end of next year? alhaji: we will finish by the end of the year, 2019. hopefully we do not have the same rain because the rainy season with climate change, we have damage. it is a huge refinery. , and we havegest
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no new infrastructure, so we had to build our own port. we had to build a special road from the seaside about 10 kilometers to the refinery. we have so many challenges. the soil is bad. we had to move 65 million cubic centimeters of sand. -- 65 million cubic meters of sand. hope -- it is almost ready, we will commission it next year. we have the 650,000 barrels per day.
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when what you produce 650,000 euros per day? alhaji: we will start production .y the end of the first quarter maybe two quarters. we will ramp up quickly. you still want your ipo in london? we are expanding, 6 million tons in nigeria, and tons.r 3 million we are building additional capacity in niger. francine: when what you ipo?
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alhaji: next year. you mentioned about the world economy, we are watching what is going on now, problems with the emerging-market. we hope -- we are looking for a window. finish our election hopefullyy to be at we will go for an ipo after the election period. we will wait for the election of the financial advisors who have -- francine: will you make any acquisitions? we have operations
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tanzania,y a -- kenya, rwanda. we will look -- francine: i ask you this every six months. >> i do not think it is the right time. by the time we finish, the company will move from a revenue company to $30 billion revenue. we will have an excess amount of cash. francine: how much will you spend for it? >> it depends on the price. billion, but going forward
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i do not know. francine: you have a meeting to go to so i have to wrap up quickly. will you buy another club? alhaji: if they will not sell to me, i will have to change because i am fond of football. i do not have to own right now. francine: always a pleasure speaking to you. ,hat was alhaji aliko dangote chairman, dangote industries. putcine: finance chiefs pressure on the country before the budget. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua here in singapore at the new economic forum. ministerry's finance remains open to dialogue, but is not changing tack. when you look at italy, does it worry you?
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do you assume it will find a way and finances will get back on track? dr. aly el-arian: this is an issue that can be solved with flexibility on both sides. the eu is going to understand others in countries, governments want to jumpstart the economy, and the amount of deficit increase is asked for is not rendered us. -- is not horrendous. there is a way to get a solution as long as they do not stuck in ideological camps. that is the worry. it does not exactly kickstart the economy. dr. aly el-arian: that is were italy needs to do something, and turn in more fiscal deficit into pro world measures. flexibleeds to be more
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in terms of the profile. this is doable. it just requires both sides to show more responsibility to be y. thank you for joining .s, dr. mohamed aly el-erian we talked china, they are ready to discuss solutions with the u.s.. we will bring you more interviews from the bloomberg new economy forum here in singapore. i am looking at the market, they are looking at the midterms. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ phone rings ] what?!
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ready for christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone.'re about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua here in singapore for the bloomberg new economy forum.
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trump hasesident repeated his confidence that he will clinch a trader with china because both sides ultimately want to reach a solution. he is certain beijing wants to talk and he will insist on an agreement that is good for america. president warned of uncertainties ahead. the global economic and political landscape is undergoing the most profound change since the end of the cold war, giving rise to many destabilizing factors and uncertainties. and ceo of founder fedex says companies are try to ship goods earlier to beat terrace increases -- tariff increases.
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>> china is a huge and important market for us. in terms of our overall tariff eligible revenue, it is about 2.4%. we take things to and from china from a lot of different areas. taylor: stay with bloomberg for full coverage of the first day of the inaugural bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. leaders from around the world will be engaging with some of the world's most significant changes and challenges. we will bring you exclusive interview these throughout the day. president trump has been on the road and on twitter urging and vote. to get out markets are bracing for the democrats to potentially win the house, while the gop retains the
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senate, which could dramatically alter the second half of trump's term. the outcome may hinge on what could be a larger than normal turnout. you can watch all of the election coverage on bloomberg. we will bring you the latest for all of the different key races, along with special guests. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. i'm francine lacqua. let's get back to global trade.atop says chinai jinping is ready for a trade deal with the u.s. >> both china and the u.s. would
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like to see greater economic cooperation. china is ready to have discussions on issues of mutual concern. that was china's vice president speaking here at the bloomberg new economy forum. to discuss more on this, peter dixon is in london and joining marietjegapore is schaake. she is also the coordinator for the international trade committee. thank you so much for joining us, both of you. tell me a love that about this transatlantic relationship between europe and the u.s. marietje: we have seen dramatic changes since president trump took office.
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relations andade a value-based relation that we have challenged since world war ii has really been upset. i'm worried. beenansatlantic card has suffering since this upset. i really hope we can look beyond government to government, white house to other politicians in europe and look at the depth of the transatlantic relationship . that is crucial right now. of course, relations between parliament is also an important buffer here. francine: will limit terms change anything? marietje: the world is watching the midterm elections more than ever before. i think in every system, checks and balances are good, but
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especially now with so much at stake. the institutional support for multilateralism has really been lacking out of president trump. be rebalancedn with pushback from the house and senate. we have seen that regardless of the outcome of this midterm, there have been checks and balances coming from congress. i think we could use more to avoid that we are being played a part in such a crucial moment. peter, thank you so much for being so patient in europe. do you think localization is retreating? peter: i certainly get the sense that globalization is a progressive force and weakening to some extent. the evidence, gathered by the kof in switzerland is pointing
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to summer treat in globalization. we have seen that before. case that thee midterms represent the high point of populism, which i think peaked in 2016. we might start to see a bit of normalization of relationships thereafter. i don't think it is time yet to throw the towel in on globalization. time, politicians will probably get back to that they have to get back to prosperity for a large number of their people. francine: what worries you about the world economy? if you look at some of the concerns involving protectionism and globalization, can europe benefit in any way? as the u.s. and china fight, does money get into europe? je: what worries me is the
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confrontational atmosphere between the u.s. and china, and lack of support for a rules-based system. i think that has benefited the liberal democracies of this world. europe and the u.s. have been leaders since world war ii. i think it has served us well. we seeopposite end, much more state driven models that can be protectionist and confrontational. i think it is really important that we continue to build out this rules-based order. we even heard this morning, here are the new economy forum, support for roles based order from chinese leaders, but we also have to see that being translated into action. it's good to hear the words, that we want to see it materialize. will bee, i think a lot lost and things could get worse. europe has been playing a leadership role in doubling down
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on support for the multilateral system, on pulling relations with important partners like japan, canada, mexico, latin american countries closer, and i think we have been quite successful at that. also have to make sure the benefits of trade are reaching people all throughout society. i think that has been the european model and that is why it has been working. there are also points of improvement that we have to work on to fix some of the does consent and concern about trade. francine: do you think europe is attracting chinese money and investment because they don't want to put it in the u.s.? rietje: we have been attracting investment anyway. we are actually screening more investments now and harmonizing the screening across europe. there is also opportunity and we are open to do business.
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there has to be standards and from quality to environmental protection to human rights and a rules-based order that we really also want to see china adhere to and not just talk about. francine: when you look at the midterms, is it the end-all be-all for the markets this week? peter: it probably is. it is likely to be already. based into the markets and as we see a major surprise, in terms of developing patterns, i can't see this as being the game changer for the markets. many of the issues with regard budgete and the italian will remain the key driving forces for markets. i have to agree with mohammed, it is unlikely we will see any movement on the trade front.
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as we get into the end of the year, markets are looking for some kind of improvement in that situation in order to drive markets higher in 2019. riling upa continued of this rhetoric, market may be setting themselves up for a bit of a fall. francine: let me also get back ietje: we have a huge elections of the european parliament level next year. do you think that could be a game changer for europe next year? : on the one hand, i think we will have to see a stronger political middle. macrone that emmanuel has sent out to strengthen the political center as a place where results can be achieved, there are of course many challengers.
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i think it comes down to a chance for those who want to fix and break the european union. of those who camp want to fix and improve. we have to make sure people come out and vote and care as much about building a strong future as having the quality of life achieved in the past. francine: thank you so much. don't miss a great exclusive interview we have for you tomorrow. we will speak with david sullivan. we will ask him about dollar dynamics and the midterms. this is what is going on at the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. plus, plenty more guests throughout the day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua here in singapore. i was distracted because i was speaking to stephen king, u.k. cabinet ministers are to meet today. likelyrning's meeting is to focus on the next question on how to avoid customs checks at the irish border. u.k. sources saying british officials have now given up on making enough progress to make a special summit of eu leaders on november 17. joining us now, we were talking about the world economy, is
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stephen king. i have a million questions to ask you. china, the economy. let's start with the u.k.. i like to go with the theological option which is praying for this outcome. it is all looking very tricky. hopefully, there will be a deal. the question is whether it can satisfy both brussels and the conservative party and the u.k. parliament. it's unclear what that deal would look like. theresa may is trying to argue to her a hard brexit, which is be so unbelievably awful. fudge?e: will it be a what does that mean for people who voted brexit? stephen: the fudge it would be that we would be effectively leaving the eu. there may be some period where we state in the eu in terms of assessing their roles, are no
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longer taking any control over those rules. there is the hope of some kind of trade deal. something that gives the u.k. freedom to trade in europe. k. freedoms the u. to trade with the rest of the world. for the u.k. to leave the eu and do a free trade agreement both with the u.s. and china, simultaneously, i think is normal. leaving the eu at this time is not the wisest decision. francine: so then what would you do? a transition period, a referendum? stephen: a partly depends on politics and how this progresses. i would have to go back to brussels and renegotiate another deal, or she will have to have a position where she either has to
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call a general election or would have to think about a second referendum. the problem with that, opinion polls have not moved very much. of those who have made up their mind, the percentage in terms of remain and leave is actually very similar to where it was the first time around. francine: what is the price in town right now? stephen: nothing is priced in right now because the market is stuck between two different extremes. one extreme is a deal. it goes through, that we have a face guarded relationship with europe. sterling rallies from that. if there is a hard brexit were everything falls apart completely, complete uncertainty with britain's relationship with the rest of the world, it brings
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us down to 110. it is a significantly long way away from where we probably would be. francine: if jeremy corbyn's prime minister, what happens to the pound? stephen: i think a lot of people would be nervous because people are uncertain as to what his politics would be. francine: thank you so much. stephen stays with us. up next, we will talk about globalization, multilateralism. we will also hear from the chief executive of exxon mobil. interview from the bloomberg new economy forum here in singapore. this is bloomberg. ♪
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taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." earlier this morning at the bloomberg new economy foreign,
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eric spoke exclusively to darren ceo., the exxon mobil here is what he had to say about free trade opportunities in china and geopolitical stability. >> business depends on free trade. we are a big believer that economies are best served by having open, free and fair trade. any you start to put restrictions on that, it has an impact on our business. we like to thank our company is robust to those in competitively positioned. while there is a this optimization and that whole supply chain, we feel like we are dealing with that very well versus our competition. eric: given the scope and reach of exxon's businesses around the world, i'm going to move on from asia-pacific and ask your question about.the gulf how closely are you monitoring development in saudi arabia, specifically in the gulf more broadly.
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do you worry about the potential for some kind of disorderly fallout from the khashoggi scandal? darren: we have significant businesses in the middle east. years. been there for 90 very successful business there and very good relationships with many of the business people we deal with. i think we have a big presence there and we stay plugged into what is happening in the middle east. that region has seen its ups and downs, like every other part of the world. we try to stay diversified and take a high-level perspective on it. make sure we are meeting the needs of the society more broadly and stay focused on that in the long-term. eric: do you think it is going to really some of the pressure on qatar, where you have some business? haven'tfrankly, we really tried to get mixed in with that business. we have seen that more is a government to government business. eric: whether it is because of
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china or saudi arabia, russia, even the rising tide of populism, having heard that some of the people here have been discussing today, there is a lot of concern over geopolitical stability. you have been at exxon for more than 25 years. how would you characterize the operating environment today relative to everything you have seen since then? darren: when you have a business like ours that spreads countries all around the world, you are seeing this tension and movements at different places and different times. we keep thinking about it in the long-term, how we want to run the business and meet the needs of society's around this different countries around the world, i just stay focused on a learned term -- the long-term and doing what is right. most of the host countries we work in appreciate that and
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value having somebody there who stays stable things about the long-term -- thinks about the long-term. taylor: that was the ceo of exxon mobil. let's bring in stephen king. francine, you are there in singapore. i will send it back to you. it's interesting. you talk about trade and the new show up in singapore, and really, it is what these southeast asia economies worry about. how bad will it get? one of the media aspects has been the relationship between china and the u.s.. everyone is worried about it. you look at the u.s. position in terms of tariffs, it is kind of the attack from china that threatens u.s. dominance of the world.
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also third parties as to whether they align their interests with the u.s. or china. you see the beginnings of a bipolar, multipolar world, where there is no single globalization value, there are competing values. you look from the chinese when a view and they are talking about economic globalization, that is not the same thing as globalization. thank you so us.tom king stays with keene will join me and we will talk about the midterms. markets are pretty much unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: election day polls are
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opening in the u.s. in the most closely watched and most expensive midterms in recent memory. what will the results mean for the markets? shows avice president readiness to talk trade in singapore. the chief executive of exxon tells us that his business depends on free trade. >> our business is dependent on free trade. we are a big believer that economies are best served by having, open free and fair trade. any time you start putting restrictions on that, it has an impact on our business. good afternoon and good morning, wherever you are in the world. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in singapore, tom keene in new york. we will focus a lot on the midterms. anyone who is anyone is here
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talking about the midterms and the impact on the markets. let's go straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city. here is taylor riggs. taylor: it's all about the midterms. just as they always are, today's midterm elections are all about the president. donald trump a final pitch for a republican vote in ohio, indiana and missouri yesterday. he warned that republican successes could be wiped out by democratic gains in congress. republicans are likely to hold onto the senate and maybe increase their advantage there. china'sputy to president says beijing is still ready to talk trade with the u.s.. the vice president told the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore that china won't be bullied and oppressed by foreign powers. president trump seems confident he will reach a trade to with china that will be good for america. fedex ceo fred smith is also at the bloomberg new economy forum.
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he says companies are shipping goods quicker to try and avoid upcoming increases in tariffs. he spoke about the trade were between the u.s. and china. fred: china is a huge and important market for us. tariffs of our overall, eligible revenue, it is about 2.4%. we take things into them from china from a lot of different places. to losing it, you will make it up somewhere else? fred: hopefully. theresa may's cabinet expect to be locked in a room today to discuss the latest brexit options and private. private. british officials have given up on the idea that they will make enough progress this week to get a deal signed on november 17. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. riggs, this is bloomberg. much.hanks so data on the back burner today as we look at the election in the united states. an important chart showing the emotion of america. futures at negative seven. a little bit of curve flattening over the last 24 hours. renminbi stronger today. let me go to bloomberg right now. this was my chart of the european years ago. maybe it is the chart of the last number of elections. this is simply household income. emotion, growth of america from the 1970's out to the 1990's. peaking nicely at the millennium. here is the great divide, which is so much of the political angst of america. back a 10, 11 your decline and below that long-term trend.
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a great recovery and to engage the political debate as we will today. who is benefited from this great recovery? francine: bloomberg's inaugural new economy forum began in singapore today with the u.s. and china trade tensions really at the forefront of the debate. the top deputy to the chinese president said that beijing remains ready to discuss a trade solution with of the u.s., but he cautions the country wouldn't be bullied and oppressed by foreign powers. both china and the u.s. would like to see greater economic cooperation. china is ready to have discussions on issues of mutual ancern and work towards solution on trade that is
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mutually acceptable for both sides. francine: that was china's vice president. king, hsbc senior economic adviser joins us now. we talked a little bit before about your concerns. globalization, has a taken a real back step that could hurt the world's growth to a point where it could put it in a recession? stephen: the politics have changed. it is globalization versus isolationism. globalization, whether rightly or wrongly has been responsible for weak growth. populists on both sides of the atlantic have taken advantage of that fear and up and elected on political support of that basis. with of the midterm elections,
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the discussion about whether the democrats will do well compared to republicans, they are united on one thing, china. spectrum, political there is the consensus that china is not sticking to the rules of the book. there is in washington to do something about it, which means the relationship between the u.s. and china is going to be a difficult one to manage. trump may want to do a trade deal, but the issue is, can it be a deal done that will keep both the americans and chinese happy? francine: let's say republicans keep the house and senate. what does that mean for dollar and treasuries? stephen: if republicans won both houses, people think there is more policy concentration outcome through. francine: are we going to see
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more infrastructure spending if republicans keep both? more tax cuts? more belligerent white house against china? stephen: if the democrats when the senate, under the circumstances, my guess is they will be pressure on fiscal positions. pressure will come from and the structure spending. if republicans when the house, i'm not sure it would be quite as straightforward as that. when it comes to foreign policy, the white house is still dominant. that relationship between the u.s. and china remains problematic. francine: thank you so much. i'm going to hand it back to you. if you look at midterm global trade, but also dollar dynamics, those of the big three things we talking about here in singapore. tom: there he interesting. -- very interesting.
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lots of great conversations. david riley's understanding of credit. i've been dying to have you want to talk about the reality corporations face when they see a credit downgrade. it's november, it is a great bull market. the volatility of october and all that. had his behavior change at ge or ibm when they see the threat of credit downgrade? i do think that when you have a situation when you have a large capital structure, that potentially it is going to slip into the high-yield market. it raises questions both about the ability of the high-yield market to absorb that debt in a smooth manner and spillover into
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contagion there. you potentially get the viability of the business model. one of the things we learned through the financial crisis of -2008, is that business models kind of worked with a high grade rating. when he makes it in with of the election and the outcome, let's presume a gridlock as well, to me, it is more of a toxic cocktail of a debt buildup in some of these companies moving to a lesser grade debt . what is our confidence to be in the market coming into next year? david: i think you have to step back and say, what is the actual growth outlook? what is the outlook for earnings? we should not discount the fact that earnings growth, particularly in the u.s. for companies is actually very strong.
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i still think we have a fundamental growth earnings backdrop that is broadly risk positive. i think what we are going to be seeing during the course of 2019 is investors moving somewhat higher up in terms of quality getting a little bit more cautiously positioned. i still think that there is opportunity to be gained from having some credit exposure. i think your point is well made, we clearly have seen this buildup, particularly within the investment grade space and essentially, as companies go on capex and buybacks. when will it end?
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the discussion on brexit? can you go along you pay equities? david: it's never-ending brexit. that is the story. we will be talking about this beyond march of next year. that is only if there is a deal, a transition period. unfortunately, brexit is the gift that keeps on giving. think ther term, i markets are getting a little bit, or sterling is getting a little bit of a boost from the idea that there will be a deal between the u.k. and the eu. i'm kind of surprised because that is the most likely outcome. i think what is the bigger question is whether any deal that is backed by theresa may will get through parliament. i think the you cable make the concessions necessary, or theresa may will in order to get
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a deal from brussels. getting it through parliament remains 50-50. tom: we are global today. david riley joining us from london. francine lacqua in singapore at the bloomberg new economy forum. coming up, much more ahead at the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. witht timely discussion mr. solomon of goldman sachs. that is made in the adjacency of malaysia in the upset over a modest scandal for his company. this is bloomberg. ♪
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taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance."
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amazon's long search for second headquarters has come to an end. it is close to an agreement that would split the new headquarters between two places, one would be arlington, virginia, across from washington, the other would be long island city and the new york borough of queens. pandora plunged today. the company has banded its long-term revenue goal and says it is still looking for a ceo. pandora published a report that analysts characterized as terrible. the stock is down 47% this year. under armour is trying to adjust to the metoo era. it has barred employees from expensing business to strip clubs on our credit card. under armour announced of the policy change in a gmail to employees. wentournal says executives
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with athletes it to strip clubs after some events. we welcome all of you to our studios here in new york. francine lacqua in singapore at the bloomberg new economy forum. let me bring up for you one of the readings i had overnight. this is paul kane ready in the washington post. great stuff out there. years, thest 18 senate majority changed shifts four times. it was done and 45 years before that. 1992, democrats have had just four years of complete control in washington. the remaining 16 years, kevin cirilli can spell as gridlock. are we going to see gridlock tomorrow morning? kevin: yes. i don't think we will have the
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precise margin should the polls be right until a couple of days, even maybe a week out. tom: this is the 5:00 a.m. our. -- hour. i want you to advise our global audience. what you need to look for in kevin cirilli's 9:00 p.m. tonight? is,n: the top line image will republicans take control of theirnate and extend majority and democrats take control of the house of representatives? the second point is dig deeper in the house numbers. if it is a slim majority, that is going to mean more gridlock and more of an incentive for democrats to have to work with president trump. tom: i think all of our viewers know that florida matters. what does it mean for president trump if we get the senator to
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nelson and the dimons from tallahassee to win in the governor's office? kevin: it is essentially that president trump is playing on an away field for 2020. that election all comes down to these key swing states. florida and ohio are the two most important swing states. for the president to head into a state like florida and lose the governorship, which us madigan influences on the state legislator impact, but also to have senator nelson be reelected, that puts him in a tough spot. senator marco rubio is a republican there, but it would put him at a disadvantage heading into 2020. tom: what does a president do on the election day? is there a voting booth he goes to? kevin: he has no public events. he has aggressively hit the campaign trail. he was in three states yesterday. he has been talking about
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immigration, but no public events scheduled for today. tom: david riley with us in london and francine lacqua in singapore with esteemed guest as well. david westin has been really working at driving forward the conversation of the results we will see. look for that at 7:00 p.m. tonight. the polls are open in vermont. please vote. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: "bloomberg surveillance." this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from new york and singapore. a lot of the talk here is on globalization, but a few people talking about investing in europe and italy. if you look at the troubles, it is not only about the budget and the fight between italy and brussels, but within the italian government, there are two different factions at loggerheads from everything from immigration to what you put in the budget. let's get back to david riley. he joins us from london. i know you have been a buyer of italian btps. give us the differences between the italian government, these two factions that don't really seem to get along. are you still a buyer of btp's?
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been, and it is been quite a rough, and at times painful ride. i also still think that we have the mispricing of italian exit risk, the deputy prime minister from the five-star movement talked over the weekend about for how italyo wants to stay within the euro. theink it speaks to discussion you are having earlier about being left behind. italy has been left behind over the last decade or more in terms of growth. that is its problem and challenge rather than the budget, per se. in terms of tensions within the government, that is not new news because clearly, one is from the populist left and the other is on the populist right. those tensions are going to come through.
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i do think they're going to do their best to hang together and try to deliver something of their agenda in the run-up to the european parliamentary elections in may of next year. after that, we have a reasonable chance of an election. within that is the constraint that germany and the rest of europe will put on italy. is that constraint valid? and a complete monetary union, i think there is valid to have some kind of sharing and pooling of sovereignty around fiscal policy. i do think italy is highlighting the necessity of having a fiscal framework that does allow for something more than never-ending fiscal -- there has to be more than a debt prison.
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the biggest criticism one could make about the italian budget is not the 2.4% deficit, but that they don't take the opportunity to push ahead with some reforms that would actually raise the potential growth rate of the italian economy. fundamentally, that is what needs to be addressed in italy. tom: david riley, thank you so much. good discussion in singapore at the bloomberg new economy forum. always a good discussion with the danone representing the philadelphia eagles, edward, associated with pennsylvania politics.
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francine: francine: good morning and good afternoon. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from new york and singapore.
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let us hear more from oscar munoz. he gave us an interview in singapore at our new economy forum. he spoke to erik schatzker. fuel has been offset by many things, pricing being one. if fish and see, the way we happen growing, it is a lot of things. , should weable it is have to away is the historical volatility. we have to overcome that and prove to the market. any kind of input costs have an effect on the business. we would like to have lower fuel. >> do you think you can keep it at that 90% recovery level? >> we will continue to do what we have been doing. it depends on price. >> one of the figures on your last conference call as down to me.
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your company is spending $350 million a year in travel agency commission. why did you stop? >> they are partners of ours and we will continue to work with them. they are important. >> it is an arms race though, isn't it? >> it can be. >> with american, with delta. >> if you let it. we do not talk about things with price. it does not have to be a raise. there is a product you build. >> is there a limit to how much you are willing to spend? >> there is always a limit. with our partners, we have those conversations. >> this reminds me about what is going on in the drug industry. should there be transparency? should the customer know how much of the ticket price is being rebated back to the travel agent? inyour ticket price you pay
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all hospitality business -- >> i see what airport fees are. i do not see that. >> transparency is important. i am not sure that would make a difference for customers. >> what would? >> i think the product you offer and how they feel about flying your airline. that is something we control. the things we control our how we treat you and how we fly. there is one thing you could have that american has an one thing delta has that you could have, what would that be? where theye hubs make a lot of their profit margin. >> dallas and atlanta? >> dallas and atlanta. markets dispersed. if we could have one, that would be one. tom: with erik schatzker in singapore.
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the bloomberg economy for room. .ront and center -- forum front and center is the election. 11.urn to 11-11- this will be an extraordinary moment on a sunday. maybe we will not be paying attention. not be distracted as they look at the 100th anniversary of world war i. james dimon has written about it and joining us now peter s cher. it will be something as the world leaders, including president trump gather on november 11. checkan wrote a loan 100 years ago and maybe now a less important loan arrangement in paris of development. why paris?
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peter: we have been part of france for 150 years and we have an interest in seeing the economy continued to grow and jobs being created. the greater part of paris, one of the wealthiest cities of the world. neighborhoods with 1.5 million people in neighborhoods with poverty and unemployment. wecannot grow the economy if are leaving these people behind. this is why we feel we have a responsibility to be part of the solution, to take what we have learned in detroit and chicago and washington and to imply -- to apply them to a country we want to see grow. immigration front and center, we know it is different in france. what is distinctive about your investment that leads to jobs in
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?rance what is the difference they are then detroit or other cities in america? peter: the interesting thing is france is unique as detroit and other places. we see around unemployment around lack of training for the right jobs, around the inability of small businesses to get support are similar. you can see some of the people who are being trained for jobs in the manufacturing sector. right now, the company trains 10,000 people a year. we are hoping we can double that number. around theu go world, you see the need for this kind of training and focus. advent andember the up to brexit and mr. diamond doing public events before the bow. to be we expect mr. dimon
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speaking with mr. mccrone? -- macron? announcement has nothing to do with brexit. we have been part of this country for 150 years. we have 550 companies we serve as clients. we want to keep growing that. macron have three of mr. 's ministers be with us today. are doingstration terrific things to bring things forward for this economy and we want to support those efforts and to help address people being left behind. tom: the curiosity of the business community in jpmorgan's
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efforts on continental europe is a cue. manyis a reaffirmation of more thousand employees in paris and on the continent or is it going to be london forever? i think there are negotiations going on in brussels and london about the future of the u.k.'s relationship with the rest of europe and we will have to see how that plays out. the reality is no one knows. day one toprepared serve our customers across europe. no one knows. we are making this investment notwithstanding what will happen with brexit. we have seen and continue to see france as an important market and we believe the economy, just like the united states, the economy cannot grow if this many people are left behind. companies cannot higher if they cannot find the right workforce. people are being trained.
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this economy grow so our clients can have the pipeline of employees they need to expand. peter scher with jpmorgan in paris. thank you so much. david riley in london, listening carefully to this. give us an update of the city. the last time i was in london, i thought it was booming. is there a fear of london moving to paris? david: i do not think there is a of the city of london as a falling overter overnight or being transferred. what helps london is that europe full capital a market and banking union.
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there is not one single center. what we have been seeing is a gradual bleeding away of some roles and jobs which will be ongoing over a number of years from london into europe. that has been happening across financial institutions. the city of london will be strong but it will be weaker than it was before brexit. scher who kidding mr is not going to speak on executive strategy. i can ask you more directly. a new capitalism on the continent of europe? we watched the implosion of unicredit, the implosion of deutsche bank. is there a new capitalism or not? think europe is still
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struggling to develop that framework. president macron has come to office and did set out an agenda not only for reforming the french economy but for europe as and is, quite ambitious moving in the right direction. loan ofately, he is a voice because we see a weakening of angela merkel's leadership. if you're looking for new capitalism, it is going to be the political direction of europe and the parliamentary elections in may will be an interesting backdrop for a economics going forward. tom: that is off my radar, looking out to may. what is your date calendar to the end of the year?
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modevid riley in holiday or do you have some big events? unfortunately, i am not yet on holiday mode although colleagues think i am always on holiday mode. that i thinkings is interesting is we have seen this volatility and discussion around politics. we have pushed to the background one issue which is the fed is raising rates. we have got a meeting this week. they are not going to change interest rates. they are going to confirm we are going to get a hike in december. october was the month and this quarter is the quarter when we have seen an increase in the run-up of the fed's balance sheet and ecb purchases have decline. will beral banks suppressing market volatility. they will be stepping away from that. you are tracking the fed, the
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u.s.-china trade relations and the broader close -- growth picture. the biggest concern i would have in terms of global growth is china and whether we will have an acceleration in terms of the slowing of growth within china. tom: david riley with us a bluebay asset management. coming up tomorrow, he is distracted by football. one of the best teams in football in the country. hank paulson, the paulson institute chairman and founder. this will be from singapore. henry paulson, tomorrow at the bloomberg new economy forum. it is election day. please vote. ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in singapore. you can see a beautiful shot of the skyline overlooking the skyscrapers that were not here 15 years ago. this is a testament to the city being the pivot point when it , a lot oflobal trade supply chains either start or finish year and that was one of our key themes at the new economy forum. economy,et more on the the vice president of china talking to a saying they are looking for an agreement -- talking to us, saying they are looking for an agreement as long as they do not get bullied. here is taylor riggs. taylor: president trump made one
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less pitch to voters before today's elections. president campaigned in ohio, indiana, and misery, warning that republican successes could be erased by democratic gains. need 23 seats to regain control of the house. experts got it wrong two years ago. republicans are expected to hold onto the senate. the trump administration wants the supreme court to let it and protections for young immigrants. it has taken the step to bypass federal district court appeals. the ceo of exxon mobil is not a fan of tariffs and trade barriers. darren woods spoke at the new economy forum in singapore. that're big believer
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economies are best served by having open and free trade. anytime you start to put restrictions, we like to think our company is robust to those and positioned. are dealing with that well versus our competition and that is what we stay focused on. banga is also at the forum. he views china as a market not yet fully developed. >> look what we bring. we can offer to billions of with banks all over the world, with 200 countries. we can do cybersecurity, all that. players --these taylor: global news 24 hours a day and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg." tom: thanks. markets cooperating with a distraction on the election. it is good to have a quiet day. futures that negative five, dow futures at negative three. curve flattening off the risk on feel of friday's jobs report. i would note there is a certain weight we see and they wait to weight to oil. marty schenker will join us. kevin's a really as well. -- kevin cirilli as well. kathleen fisher will join us. go to cash. kathy fisher, next. ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from singapore and new york. i am in singapore for the new economy forum. a lot of talk is on the new
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world order. we talk about the order without knowing what it means. if you will get the supply chains, do you need to move the supply chains? these are some of the things we have been trying to figure out here. down to to boil it three points people are talking one ispanels, the first the warning from henry kissinger talking about the new world order and the fact that no one knows where they sit at the moment. is a growing there rivalry and if there is not a scaling back of the rivalry, they risk destroying the world order. the second one would be on trade optimism. we did hear from the vice president of china telling us he sees a solution between u.s. and china as long as the u.s. stops bullying china. the third point is that everyone is talking about the midterms.
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i do not know how much of an impact it will have on foreign relations but it will on markets. it goes back to the new world order and how the u.s. deals with china. tom: i thought kissinger's comments were appropriate and wasbook "world order" extraordinary. the chapters on america. in london, david riley with us a bluebay asset management. there is a great story of blue -- of bill gross clipping coupons in the mailroom. moving forward with fixed income, is it a time to get the coupon or can you invest in fixed income for total return? can stillo think you invest in fixed income.
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it should be part of any diversified portfolio. i do think that in this worldtion into a post qe along with the political disruption you have been highlighting that what we have seen is traditional core fixed income passively owning government bonds. provide you with protection when you have drawdowns and equity. look what happened in the s&p. we have had draw down. unchanged0 year is from where was at the beginning of october. you have got to be smarter. you have got to go long-sure. -- long-sure. thatyou use the language is important for the viewers and that is the idea of drawdown which his own -- which focuses on the maximum value of your account.
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are we going to be in a non-bear market where you are down a little bit and you open up the m andw -- up the envelope your down a little bit. is that where we are heading? david: in the near term. the balance is for rates in the united states to move higher. as the central banks step back market, away into the this year, so far, has been a poor year for investors across nearly all asset classes including core fixed income. to much more, do the basics of investing, which is do your credit selection, look for opportunities, simply
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buying and holding risk is not going to be good enough. tom: this has been wonderful. david riley out of london with bluebay asset management. we have got more coming up. kevin cirilli will be with us, martin schenker as well. this idea of republican and democrat and people that know the trench warfare leading up. michael steele will join us with his work. the congressman from long island, stephen israel, from new york will join us. this is "bloomberg." stay with us. ♪
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tom: this morning, it is election day across these united states.
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there is record early morning. there is a deep division -- early voting. there is deep division. as to how youry will vote and who will win. gridlock is predicted. 2020, let the battle begin. in singapore, dr. kissinger speaks. and president xi must consider the concessions they can and cannot make. good morning. in new york, i'm tom keene. in singapore, francine lacqua. electiond day of coverage here in america and good conversation at our new economy forum. i thought dr. kissinger's comments were extraordinary. join us laterto in david westin at 12 noon and was special coverage tonight at 7:00. here is taylor riggs.
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taylor: he is not on the ballot but the elections are about the president. donald trump made a final pitch for republican votes in ohio, indiana, and missouri. he warned republican successes could be wiped out by democratic gains. democrats are expected to regain control of the house. republicans are likely to hold onto the senate and increase their advantage. a top deputy to president xi jinping says china is ready to talk trade with the u.s. the vice president told the new economy forum that china will not be bullied and oppressed by foreign powers. president trump says he is confident he will reach a trade deal with china that will be good for america. fedex ceo fred smith is at the bloomberg new economy forum. he says companies are shipping quicker to avoid upcoming tariffs.
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smith spoke about the trade war. >> china is a huge market for us. in terms of our overall tariff eligible revenue, it is about 2.4%. we take things to and from china from a lot of places, southeast asia, australia. >> you will make it up somewhere else? >> hopefully. taylor: in the u k, prime minister theresa may's cabinet expects to be locked in a room today to study the latest options in secret. today is likely to focus on one of the stumbling blocks, how to avoid custom checks at the irish border with the u.k. british officials have given up on the idea they will make enough progress to get a deal signed november 17. global news 24 hours a day and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg."
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francine: thank you. we are here at the bloomberg new economy forum. look at that shot, a beautiful hub when it maniin comes to supply chains. it was interesting to have a chinese manufacturer talk to us about how she is looking for low-cost countries but she is worried if they do not move to low-cost, it will have an impact on costs she will not be able to pass on to the consumer. the day was speaking to henry kissinger who said the u.s. and china were bound to step on each other's toes but the challenge is to remain in they cooperative -- remain in a cooperative relationship. tom: thank you so much.
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a data check now. not much going on in the markets. futures that negative seven. , not much talk about $100 a barrel in the last seven days. roger angell is iconic within the writing of baseball and he -- here is roger angell. long way fromthe my hot certainty. i am 98 now, legally bind -- legally blind. i was never in combat but now i am. if you do not vote, they have won and you are a captive. it says it all, doesn't it? marty: it does.
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one of the greatest sports writers that has ever been. divideu look at the deep that we have seen, that the team have written on. what has changed? marty: nothing has changed much. this is when undecided voters cannot be undecided anymore. they have to click their choice of republican or democrat. tom: we decided in your not to talk to big voices. we are going to talk to a republican operative and eight democratic operative. we are going to do that about the operations out there. pros and impact --prose an impact? marty: that is one of the biggest changes in the way we have conducted our activity.
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media and television advertising, candidates have been able to bypass professionals. there is certain blocking and tackling that has to be done. you have to identify the people that support you and get them out. tom: i want to bring out our next guest in one moment. one more question. york inis ohio from new this election? marty: i think it is quite a distance. tom: as far as venus. marty: they are. ohio is a tossup and it is pivotal will -- pivotal. tom: let us talk to michael steel. we are thrilled to have you with us today. what is the gop distinction right now? did president trump help or not? michael: president trump helps in terms of senate races.
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he helps republican senators running against him in red states. he is focused -- running against democrats in red states. we have got a tale of two midterms. we have a senate landscape dominated by democratic senators where is the house is going to be decided in suburban backgrounds, places near whole foods, places where women who have been turned off by the president's demeanor. -- a help inope those places. tom: are moderate republicans done? michael: know. i hope not. there is still a place for moderate republicans. if you look at candidates this ,ear, guys outside of miami
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upstate new york, there are people who have forged their own connection that is separate and distinct from the president. tom: well said. that unique individual grasp of your constituents and that person, whether republican or democrat. does the president understand that? this is a guy doing reality tv. of the republican party do not have the lecture he of reality tv, do they? and no elected official has the luxury of working without president trump. get bills signed, you have to find a way to work with the president. that is what republicans are doing and no democrats are trying. if we see the house go
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democratic, you're looking with two years of little process. tom: let us look at polling. vermont open at 5:00 a.m. in new york, we have polling as well, the brooklyn public library, a symbol of a borough. brooklyn is a city within itself. my staff lives in brooklyn. they would not be caught dead living near where i live. at theling begins brooklyn public library. how long will the line speed? what do you suggest will be the turnout? will polls have to stay open longer than schedule? is the day our questions are answered. early voting suggests we are on track for a record turnout for a midterm. early voting has been above what
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we saw in the last midterm which leads me to expect we will see the same. tom: you have been great about the senate race. the early voting in texas was extraordinary. it is 700,000. that new voters or people saying i'm not standing in line? that: that is the question leaves us uncertain. there are indications there are new voters who have not voted before and that would benefit beto o'roruke. we do not know the nature. tom: let me go to you on this. about 80d was talking million, 90 million. million, out to 100 polls do not work, do they? marty: they do not. that is why the surprise of 2016
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gives everybody caution about what you could expect today. i think people have to be set up for the big surprise. nate silver developing a cautionary after being humbled in 2016. michael steel, thank you so much for getting us started this hour. marty schenker will have no sleep for the next two days. about ourl you midterm election coverage. david westin leading our coverage tonight in the 7:00 hour. we are going to do the results, the maps. on themart conversation path forward for america. worldwide, this is "bloomberg." ♪ loomberg." ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. from new yorkne and singapore. i am here at the new economy forum. we spoke to a number of newsmakers ranging from the chief executive of 3m. we spoke about the supply chain. spoke to mr. dan we also talked football. who would have thought i knew anything about british football? the main theme i would put in midpoints -- three points. it is about the midterms. people are wondering what the markets are pricing in but if the midterms can change the rhetoric on china and whether asia can benefit if they midterm changes the composition of the house or senate.
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we did hear from henry kissinger, one of the people on the advisory board from the new economy forum. he was saying there is growing rivalry but if they cannot ford out this rivalry, they threaten the new world order. i was also hearing from a top chinese advisor to the president saying that beijing remains ready to discuss a trade solution with the u.s. but he cautioned the country would not be bullied by foreign powers. the third thing people are talking about is president trump and what he means for trade and multilateralism and what it means for companies in general if they have to bring back their supply chains to america. tom: thank you. kathleen fisher with us of bernstein. of thel the distraction election, we need a chart to
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remind ourselves about what we do election to election and the rest of it. bring up this chart right now. of a stock market, a depression on a log basis painful on the left side. there are bumps along the way. the politics is one great ,istraction to one bull market isn't it? is it from the lower left to the upper right. kathleen: it is. the global economy is slowing. earnings growth is decelerating. clients to stay invested because we see no recession. decelerating earnings are different than declining earnings. tom: this is important. earnings are up. you are saying they are not going to go down.
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they're going to come down to single digit? kathleen: that is what they market is trying to figure out. what will be growth earnings be in 2019 and what multiple showed those earnings have as rates are rising as well. that is why we are having this recalibration on what stock valuation should be. the midterms are interesting but the questions are what happens to trade and interest rates. tom: cash? kathleen: cash is better than it was. even thoser optimal, in bonds who have a well managed portfolio will see higher returns in bonds as the bonds fold into higher-yielding investments. tom: kathleen fisher with us. at thiscontinue discussion with the distractions of the day, including elections. tomorrow, david solomon with goldman sachs. looking forward to that at the
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new economy forum. 7:00 london hour, 2:00 a.m. in new york. ♪
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francine: bloomberg's new economy forum began in singapore today with trade tensions taking focus. world today faces problems that require cooperation between china and the u.s..
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is our firm belief that both china and the u.s. would gain from greater cooperation and lose from confrontation. the challenges to maintain a fundamentally cooperative and it is an approach produced by the changing technology. here and talk, fedex is moving millions and millions of shipments around the world. referendumhing a every day on the economy. it is not something we read about. 's views on trade
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are rare. consensus that markets are what should decide the economic activity and the rest is a negotiation. >> china has to do more than it is in taking the initiative and exercising that responsibility in stepping up to the plate helping everyone else lead a reform process in the wto. if we do not see that, you are going to see more trumpian rhetoric and disaster. francine: still with us in new ofk, kathleen fisher bernstein. how should the markets react? giveere something markets you an indication the trade tensions are worse? kathleen: you are right that investors are looking for signs of trade discussions. ever time there is a rumor about
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conversations, markets improve. , theur panelist said global economy has benefited from free trade for some time. companies in the u.s. are looking for china to improve their intellectual property protections because that is where the biggest problems have been. if we can get to resolution, the market will respond favorably. until then, we expect volatility because constraints are creating problems for companies. tom: a blunt instrument of observation. out to york times goes the eastern dakotas and looks at mountains of soybeans sitting there that they cannot move. it comes down to the economics. raw economics plays in. does the president understand that? kathleen: there are political issues at play.
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you are starting to see the signs of misallocation of supply chains, companies having to change what they are doing. we cannot sell it to china. anything disrupted is bad for economic growth and that is why we have to get resolution to these. tom: how does it get resolved other than the dropping of animosity between china and the u.s. ? somebody comes out and says there are no discussions going on. kathleen: it is not good. everybody wants to see real discussions. until we have them, we have do expect volatility. tom: as dr. kissinger said, bilateral. let me tell you what we are doing. ed rendell of philadelphia, tomorrow.
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look for that tomorrow. you can look at voting beginning isight, the first closing indiana, closing down in that sixth district. kentucky as well. we are focused on the brooklyn public library district where they are out early. out often asare what. the polls are open as the day begins. coveragerget our tonight at 7:00 p.m. with david westin. ed rendell, tomorrow. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. tom: on something in new
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york and we have a wonderful election day coast-to-coast. here's taylor riggs. taylor: president trump made one last ditch to voters before today's midterm election and the president campaigned in ohio, indiana, and missouri warning that republican successes could be erased by democratic gains in congress. democrats need to flip 26th seats and experts project they will do that. experts got it wrong two years ago and republicans are searchable on to the senate. they want and deportation protections for young undocumented immigrants. it has taken the unusual step of asking justices to bypass the federal appeals court so it can get the case resolved by next summer. federal district courts blocked the government from abolishing the program known as daca. amazon's year-long search for a second headquarters is coming to an end. the largest online retailer is
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close to agreement that would split the new headquarters between two places. one would be arlington, virginia across from washington. the other would be long island city in the new york borough of queens. amazon is that to make announcement by the end of the year. the ceo of exxon mobil is not a fan of tariffs and other trade barriers. darren woods spoke at the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. >> we are a big believer that economies are best served by having open free and fair trade. i think anytime you start to put antrictions on it, it has impact on our business. we would like to thank our company is robust to those in competitively positioned versus our competitors. feel that we are dealing with that fairly well versus the competition and that's what we stay focused on. taylor: the mastercard ceo is also at the bloomberg new economy forum. china as a market that
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has not been fully developed. >> would bring connectivity. the banks all over the world and 200 countries local and legal, we can do diffuse settlements and cybersecurity. players come back for partnerships. taylor global news, 24 hours a : day, on air and on tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. lots to talk about and it is election day. one of the great things we're seeing in 2018, the cook political report does it up right. david wasserman doing a great job and really capture the mood of 1700 duke street, alexandria, --ginia, republican: numbers
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republican polling numbers have not gotten any better from a , it's notrds democrat just a blue wave, it's a red exodus. there are 41 vacant republican seats, the most since 1930. kevin cirilli to provide us with wisdom right now. it's amazing how the republicans retired. why? kevin: it's a tough election for them. tom: other going to cash in and make a lot more money? kevin: this is northern virginia , exactly the type of northern virginia suburban district that republicans need to be competitive in a presidential year, no virginia a key part of the virginia electorate in terms of presidential year, these of the swing voters, independent voters, college-educated voters. that's why covers moment
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comstock -- congresswoman comstock is struggling. district always competitive, shifting democrat as well, can the democrats hope to years out that they see for the demographic shift, particularly in florida? kevin: i pushed back against the notion that the demographic shift will benefit democrats, and look at the kentucky six, she says she doesn't want it to velocity be speaker of the house , she is up against congressman andy barr, public and incumbent and she is saying the differences between her and president trump on tariffs -- to answer this question -- are the old-school democrats done,? where was secretary of state clinton out campaigning? kevin: i think you have seen
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former president obama and oprah winfrey be much more there. the issue whether progressives are done, stacy abrams is a , sheessive and she's made will be the first black woman governor if elected. ,ongressman beto o'rourke there's a bunch of different democrats running. for steve israel has waited over win for oprah winfrey to knock on his door, he is a former congressman from the third congressional district. can you get behind and oprah winfrey candidacy? it's going to be trump winfrey? i've never said that phrase. i don't think so. my chair the democratic national campaign committee and guided them through a rough midterm in this midterm has as much energy as we saw in 2010 one republicans to 63 seats in 2006 when the democrats got the
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majority with 31 seats. intorms do kind of come your point, establish the tone and tenor of the presidential election coming up. what will happen tonight is the democrats will win the majority by expanding into purple districts and expanding into cracker barrel districts, crate & barrel districts and cracker the growthricts read of the democratic party in washington will be in the middle of a moderate districts and i think that sets the tone for the 2020 residential election. if: i'm not going to ask there's a cracker barrel in state israel's -- steve israel's district. are the fancy progressives of your party -- and they done with what we've seen the last 24 months? rep. israel: my party needs both. the path to the majority in the
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house of representatives, and in my view the path to national success requires that you marry progressives with those moderates. there's this place called brooklyn, new york and brooklyn, new york you got progressives, calledre's also a place brooklyn, iowa and that's in the competitive district right now. the democrats may flip the district and for democrats to win you have got to be able to win in brooklyn, iowa and brooklyn, new york. at the recipe for success. kevin cirilli, you not it when he mentioned brooklyn, iowa. i'm watching the northeast corner of iowa, really contentious. what are you watching and greater des moines? kevin: it's all going to come down to the agricultural sector. talked about this for democrats who are in these more rural districts are looking at the president's trade policies and i don't see much difference between what they are saying on the issue of tariffs and with
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the president essay on tariffs and that is something i truly think the democratic artemis in the 2016 election in wisconsin, michigan, ohio, parts of iowa and senator sherrod brown, look at his public comments. is going to win likely in ohio and it will be a stunning upset if he loses but is common font tariffs and trade and senator elizabeth warren are lined in line with president trump. tom: let's look at the polling booth in the brooklyn -- the brooklyn public library. it stevejoke about israel, but its vote early, vote often and yet the president of the united states and the attorney general in the last 24 hours have alluded to voter fraud. thoughts on that, do we need a president out talking about fraud before the actual election occurs? rep. israel: you said before on the long island or, i understand radical politics and what they are doing is casting doubt on the result of this election.
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they accepted the house of representatives is going to flip and unlike president obama who said when it flipped the republicans, we got shellacked, this president find somebody to blame in somebody to vilify, that is the card he is playing. tom: what should speaker pelosi do? there's going to be pressures whatever the outcome is on the speaker. as you need one more to your victory lap? rep. israel: i think the democratic caucus needs another two years. old disclosure, i sat with her over three cycles, sat in that room with her just before an election and just after, she is cognizant of the need for a new generation. the question is, how do you shape that generation? winterdemocrats win the -- the midterm, is largely going to be because of her, because of her energy, or fundraising, her ability to recruit candidates.
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what is a she will focus on the next two years is beginning to cultivate that next-generation, and that can't happen overnight. it's going to take a cycle, i believe i think she is prepared to show that leadership. tell me where long island is going to be in 10 years and what is going to be the mix, the population of long island? rep. israel: long island is america's first suburb, the quintessential suburban, i'm a product of that. -- itsland is becoming continues to be fairly moderate. you do have new american citizens and immigrants moving into long island is becoming a more diverse population. long island is a bellwether region. congressional districts, to republican, two democrat. i don't think republicans are going to lose seats on long island, i don't think the democrats will gain seats, despite the fact that it's going -- a goodod year
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midterm democrats throughout the rest of the country. tom: steve israel, thank you. dayn cirilli, uneventful for you into wednesday -- an eventful day for you into wednesday as well. allmberg radio coverage through the day, including "bloomberg daybreak." harrison, new jersey county speak of the polarities. 78% of harrison, new jersey voted for president obama and his last election. the polls are open in new jersey and senator menendez is fighting for his political life. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance," on taylor riggs. talks tolectric is in sell its commercial lighting business to american industrial partners. the deal could be announced as early as this weekend ge agreed to sell at least $10 billion in assets over the last year. sterling swiss investment firm gambling is ousted ceo alex friedman. friedman presided over a series of mishaps that culminated in the ascension of a star manager and left the firm fighting for its survival. assets under management fell by $18 million in the third quarter. under armour is trying to adjust to the me too era. -- barred employees employees from expensing business to strip clubs. under armour announced the policy change in email to an employee in the journal says
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executives and employees went with athletes to strip clubs after some corporate events. bloomberg your business flash. ♪ inauguralbloomberg's new economy form began in singapore today with u.s. china trade tensions taking a central focus in a speech of the form, top deputy to the chinese president that the beijing discuss they to trade solution with the u.s. but also cautioned that the country would not again be bullied and oppressed by foreign powers. china and the u.s. would like to seek greater economic corporation. china is ready to have discussions on issues of mutual concern and work towards a solution on trade is mutually acceptable for both sides. that was china's vice president cigna bloomberg's new economy form right here in singapore. inning us now is enda curran
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the flesh. camerays you are in the this, theou listen to u.s. and china must at least change rhetoric or the new world order, what do you think? enda: absolutely right. newly doubt in stark terms the sixth that are running in this feud between china and the u.s. it's about the role in the place of china in the u.s. in the world order and if they continued on this path of confrontation and it deteriorates from here, they will destroy all hope for the world order. it is a he is optimistic somewhat the perhaps china and the u.s. can find a meeting of ways and that they can resolve some of the tensions perhaps over trade. he laid bare in stark terms just how much is at stake and when you consider mr. kissinger and his long history of the world stage i think everyone in that world -- in that room set up and
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listened. toncine: if you listen democrats or republicans, this is the one thing they see i die with that actually china is not playing by fare rules. is this how you deal with china and making them change? he says there will did you talks of all of us but they are not going to be bullied by foreign powers either. there's an old of digging in on both sides here as you mentioned, is somewhat of consensus on the u.s. side about , noting wants to be seen to surrender to china in terms of a bad deal and china likewise, of course they would make some offers certainly around ip protection in the they have redods lines in their economy to. both sides in this a lot to lose and that's why losing out an agreement would be difficult in terms of losing out an agreement by the g20 later this month. the chinese president
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opening this important so, i believe in free trade and we will play a role in free trade, they are dealing with a huge slowdown. does this make them more likely to cut down on exports or the other way around? the slowdown is, getting things. they were willing to deleverage the campaign and get a grip on economy.he the along came this trade war when they really didn't need it and they didn't expect it. in front to navigate their way out of that now and there is a feeling that china is willing to come to the table and cook somewhat of a deal but they have won't go lines they over on their broader economic ambitions. the question is what kind of a deal can they do, can they placate trump and keep their economy on track? there are many vols in the air that china has right now. francine: bloomberg's enda curran with me. will besher bernstein back with us and don't miss the greatest was an interview with right here from
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singapore and the bloomberg no county form where we are seeking -- speaking with david solomon and we will ask him about his new strategy and of course we ask him about markets in the midterms. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance," live from singapore today and tomorrow, it was particularly interesting hearing from chief executives around the world about the supply chains and we spoke to the chief executive of 3m, a company that makes more than 100 million t-shirts a year, it was interesting to hear her thoughts on the chair about what it means if the supply chains were to shift. she was saying the supply chain gives her a great excuse when it comes to forcing some of the suppliers change their way. she says it's very difficult with the trade war means everyone is a little on edge and she believes it will drive costs down.
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tom: one of the themes of the bloomberg new economy form, i was looking at the cvs earnings which is a wonderful way to talk to kenneth fisher bernstein about our single best chart. cbs outlook on store sales to dream about, and someday this will end. you mentioned earlier you don't see a recession out there but the new revenue of every of the business but not specifically cvs has been boom, it's a boom economy. where does that go in the next two years? >> sales of been good. it's not just the bottom line that's been good. tom: it's been great. >> they have been great. but there are signs of some deceleration topline growth. combination of the weighting of the impact of the tax cuts and higher costs because of tariffs and other issues, we do think that earnings growth will slow because of both topline.
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on election day, and have a and here's a single best chart and we have shown this every day since the election of president trump. the 210 spread and with the election, you know the enthusiasm of a super yield curve and then down we go, we got a nice bump in the last number of all days. what does this signal to an equity person to see that curve flattening with a whole mix of fed policy? ms. fisher: there's been so much press about the curve flattening , it has been flattening, it has been inversion. curve flattening happens when short waits -- short rates are rising. tom: things are good. ms. fisher: exactly. banks are central
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being prettily forthright what they are doing great everyone knows short rates will rise to what long rates do be a function of the expectation for global growth and those are right now in flux. it's from we normally we are seeing the flattening of the curve but in no way does it signal any kind of recession in the near-term whatsoever. tom: we spoke to a gentleman from jpmorgan in paris and they invest in philanthropy to keep jobs. can you belong were overweight financial system, given this election? out of it that hamilton the country has everything to do with banks, it's really what will earnings be given that they are still in a regulated industry. the question people have is is there is a shift in the midterms, will there be less relation on banks going forward, that has started but i would still argue is the business model of the banks as well as regulation that people are focusing on, it's incredibly competitive and the nonbanks, many of which the younger
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, havenials are using become much more but threat for some of the core banking business is going forward. for being with us. kathy fisher with bernstein this morning. so much to speak of with special coverage. david westin will have midterm coverage tonight at 7:00 p.m., mr. weston with important conversation at the noon hour today as well. some of the guests we are considering are good people with good national perspectives, democrat tom perez, the republican eric cantor as well, i will speak with senator lieberman from connecticut here in a bit. stay with us through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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show me movies a grinch would love. [ bark ] nu uh, i'm picking the movie tonight. [ whimpers ] be sad, i enjoy it. show me grinchy movies. oh, goody. [ whimpers ] mmm, fine! show me movies max would like. see the grinch in theaters
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by saying... "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. [ laughing ] uh oh. something in my throat. alix: midterm 80 of. markets pause -- midterm mania.
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markets pause, euro-dollar volatility jumps. china won't be bullied. while henry kissinger is fairly optimistic a trade deal can get leaders speak out at bloomberg's new economy form. an almost certain hard brexit, liberal politician peter mandelson brexit some form of hard brexit while theresa may's cabinet meets in secrecy us a dust to look at options for the brexit deal. david: it's election day, finally. i'm david westin with alix steel. polls are open and just remind seats in the35 house, all the house of representatives and then 36 seats -- 35 senate seats, 33 which is one third plus two special elections and then 36 governorships that are up. alix:


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