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tv   Bloomberg Technology  Bloomberg  December 5, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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paul: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i am paul allen in sydney. shery: i'm shery ahn and bloomberg's headquarters in new york. >> we are counting down to the major market open. paul: here the top stories we are covering. oil slips after opec and allies --er plans to president trump is saying china is sending strong signals about a trade deal but it is unclear
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on what was agreed last week. -- r.b.i. shery: your stock and bond markets were closed today. this national day of mourning and remembrance for former president george h.w. bush. we got u.s. equities trading higher in the morning session. we will get them again trading in about an hour. energy futures were trading 1%.wti slipped to 6/10 of we have become a terry coming out of the opec plus meeting. not the concrete deal on more production cuts, really no specific numbers out of that. we did get the british pound trading and fluctuating between gains and losses. we have seen more concerns over the brexit deal, prime minister may really having to be forced to publish their secret legal advice on the divorce bill. we will keep a close eye on what is happening in the u.k..
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when it comes to the canadian dollar, we sought weaken the most since june -- saw it weaken the most since june. canada turned dovish because of the oil prices within canada. we will get u.s. futures trading in about an hour. that will also be felt in asia. that would suggest more trade highlands -- headlines. >> we have investors coming to terms with the prospects of the u.s.-china trade deal. the bank of canada is adding to the optimism. that cause the outlook for global growth prospects. in asia, we have future setting up for modest gains for the region. you have the nikkei futures contract into cargo looking to gain over 1% after the decline we saw on wednesday. when it comes to the sydney session, we are hinting at gains as well. this as we got a disappointing gdp data to digest. the rba couldn
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likely have a rates cut. with that, we have seen aussie dollar take a turn this week. that's after rising 5.2% after the low we hit in october. we may see that downtrend that we have seen over the course of the year since hitting that cyclical high back in january. that may be looking to return as the weak macro pulse indicates more data. we will get retail sales released at 8:30 a.m. hong kong time. consumer confidence figures from thailand and indonesia as well. paul? everybody want to get across bloomberg with breaking news. canada arresting a cfo, according to cannabis global. the cfo was arrested in canada at the request of u.s.
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authorities. that is breaking news we are getting right now. canada arresting the huawei cfo. we will bring you more details on that story as it unfolds. for now, let's go to the first word news with jenna dagenhart. >> president trump says china is sending strong signals with a trade deal. trump tweeted he thinks president xi jinping meant every word of what he said and all subjects were discussed. china has already begun reordering american soybeans but it is not clear what was officially nailed down in argentina. said.k. prime minister is to be weighing her range of concessions to win over conservative rebels. after losing commons votes, she has met with skeptics to solicit their support.
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the northern island democratic union party said they are ready to drop their support over the irish backstop. the reserve bank of india is dialing back its hawkish tone signaling it is open to a more flexible monetary approach a few months after stating interest-rate cuts were off the table. the governor urging the possibility of policy actions if inflation continues to undershoot. he spoke after the r.b.i. kept rates unchanged for a second straight meeting. joe low continues to professes innocence despite new charges of money laundering and embezzlement linked to the investment fund. his whereabouts are unclear, but a statement from his lawyer says he will not submit to any jurisdiction where guilt has been predetermined by politics. he's it accused in relations of the loss of billions of dollars from 1mdb. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i am jenna dagenhart. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. saudi arabia, russia, and other members of the opec plus group are defying a plea from president trump and recommending a cut in oil production. although the details need to be ironed out. let's bring in our managing editor for energy and commodities. oil pushht now we saw higher earlier in the session but then dip. how big were the comments out of this meeting that wti did not even react? tina: i think you're right. it was too vague to have much of a bullish sentiment on the market. we saw slow drift down. there was an agreement on the theory of cuts but the details of it are still obviously being worked out. this is the first a where we have had a down day in wti. the markets have been pricing in
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some cut and we are waiting for details at this point. gol: we are no details to on, what is the market reaction likely to be from here? will we see wti keep moving sideways? ,ina: we have the ministers almost all of them are in vienna right now. we are waiting on the iranian oil minister to arrive. some have given brief statements to the press and we have heard from the saudis previously about the suggestion they are looking at a one million barrel per day cut but they do not want to shoulder that all on themselves. what remains to be seen, and one of the key things we will be looking at, is where russia will go. how much of that burden, if it is one million barrels a day to agree to, how much of the burden will be shared by the largest member of the opec plus, opec and opec plus if you will. and looking at what we are talking about in terms of it is it one million or slightly under million.
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traders are looking at a real chance there is a small fish cut -- smallish cut. shery: how to the markets react to president trump's tweet? we have seen them react sharply in the past but did they get that sort of reaction this time around as well? tina: there was really no discernible reaction to the tweet. it came at a crucial time right when people were sitting down for this monitoring committee meeting and starting to work through what will happen in the coming days. people were sort of waiting all week to see what trump would tweet on this. much't think it was that of a surprise, but it came out looking for to come. theaps the impacts president has on oil markets is waning as we go forward. when he first did it, we were shocked. much.ot so
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paul: thanks sherry and to tina davis for the update -- shery and to tina davis for the update. we will to get closer look at what the r.b.i. said as it keeps rates on hold. shery: plus, how will asian markets react as investors digest the latest soundings on the u.s. trade war. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: we are counting down to the sydney open at the top of the hour. future showing the first rebound after wednesday's selloff. when we get going today, i am paul allen in sydney. shery: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia. let me recap some of the --
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deborah kostroun. -- "bloomberg daybreak: australia." huawei has been -- vancouver atted in the request of u.s. authorities. we will get you more details as we get it. a rise in use futures suggests the dramatic selloff in stocks ease, particularly after china pledged to deliver on trade agreements reached with the u.s.. now withguest joins us what to expect in a thursday session after a 24 hour break to mourn president george h.w. bush. >> what we have seen in this timeout period, is a chance for many investors on wall street and main street to take into
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account a number of factors. the technical factors, we did close on the lows of the tuesday selloff which is a negative sign. now we have this news that perhaps there has been an improvement on the trade front. let's take a look at how the snapshot of the market ended on wasday and what we saw financials were the biggest loser cycle -- sector. the chip sector was done a most 5%. stocks ande momentum chip stocks were among those heavily sold. bloomberg,gtv is where you can find a library of charts. shallowness of the market. if you look at stocks above the =ily -- daily moving
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average, if you look at the breath of the market, -- the market, there's a left. ceoy research fired their -- al a research fired their ceo. fired their ceo. chief let'ss former go in june for misconduct situation in terms of violating policy. lot onm dropped a tuesday. that will likely be in focus as in video, -- as a video is another --nvidia is another want
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to look at. still a bright spot in the market. paul: facebook is also facing investor scrutiny after a prominent downgrade. analysts are saying facebook has had too many adversaries. what is the story there? su: people mistook this from a buy to hold. this is a significant downgrade. if you look at the way the stock has performed, it has been under pressure. the analysts citing too many adversaries from politicians, social critics, media critics, investors who are critical of the company and the way it has handled a lot of the different challenges that have come out, revelations about its handling of data. out of the u.k., there are new they wield a data as a bargain chip in terms of andrding some vendors
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punishing others. those headlines are hitting the tape. very interesting to see how the stock trades when it opens for the thursday trading. shery: sue, thank you so much. -- su, the you so much. our next guest is oliver. we have seen these positive trait headlines common early aging trading -- asian trading we got positive positive pmi services in november. yet, we did not get any reaction from asian markets, at least not positive. oliver: i think the world equity markets are in no man's territory until the fed speaks on november 18 and 19th. i think everything is about the fed and interest rates right now. that is what the world is focused on. that is not to say that is what they should be. until the fed comes out and gives guidance in terms of 2019 monetary policy, i think you're
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going to see this volatility not as exaggerated on tuesday, but markets will not go nowhere. shery: when it comes to expectations about the fed, this chart on the bloomberg shows traders are starting to bend. that the fed could even cut interest rates as soon as 2020. this showing the cuts priced in euro dollars in blue. turning up the timing for when they see the hiking cycle peaking toward the end of 2019 or 2020 around here. what are your expectations from what the fed will do? oliver: i think the quarter-point hike in december bacon -- weeks is december in two weeks is baked in. i think they will probably slow down whether it means down to one or two bank fed hikes.
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that is to be determined and that's what is -- that is what the world is waiting on. even if they stop the rate hikes, they are deleveraging their balance sheet to come down. that work and process continues. i would say the only reason the fed raises rates is so they can lower than later. that is the mechanism. it is putting bullet back into the chamber. there is nothing to fear or be nervous about. it is all of the stuff surrounding it. other raising rates because things are going well? and our the ceasing raising rates because they see trouble or because of market volatility? that is what we have to wait and see. and then there are tariffs and everything else that is happening. to change every day. plus to think about, but nothing to be overly worried about. paul: to that point, do you
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think the fed has been a little aggressive in getting retire? we had paul on bloomberg saying youthis week should not to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes. but inflation has been rising moderately. oliver: inflation is in the perfect environment from the fed's perspective. the reason why they are raising is a, so they can lower down the road when needed, and keep in mind with unemployment as low as indicatorse forward that they are looking at -- their forward indicators that they are looking at, they say with inflation so low, they should've avert that that becomes a problem. there is some justification there. again, it is tough -- you will never get it right. you will always overstep in one direction or the other. i do not think the fed has overstepped, yet, but they are
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getting close in the big ofdcard is the deleveraging the balance sheet and compounding effect it has. we have not done this before. one of the other wildcards is trade as well. i wondered what you're feeling was on what we saw happen yesterday. some encouraging sounds coming out of the chinese ministry of commerce but not a great lots of detail. what you expect to see next? could we see the tariffs being increased in the year? oliver: to me, it was the united states and trump blinking on this one. the benefit of pushing additional tariffs out for 90 days, benefits china and does not do much for the u.s.. sogives us time to negotiate over the coming weeks, hopefully we see meaningful details and action. it is to be seen. i think we will be talking about trade and tariffs for quite some time, well into 2019.
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headwind, but also there, the impact lessons over time. shery: when you have this macro environment in the background, how divergent -- divergent performances could be -- diversion performances could be. oliver: we look at performance sion be different. it is basically more of the same. 2018, with at thread on that high-end, i think technology and health care are leading on the very high end. i'm sorry, consumer discretionary and health care leading on the high-end. up 14, 15% and energy down 12% or so. that is a pretty big gap in terms of performance and yours
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can look it up on bloomberg to get the exact data, but we expect that to continue so rate sensitive sectors like utilities should perform well. we think financials in 2019 could perform well. are probably going to underperform. the faang stocks in technology sector, materials, and industrials will probably face headwinds. , oliver, right thank you for your insights. we will have more to come here on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." stay with us.
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paul: i am paul allen in sydney. shery: and i'm shery ahn in new york.
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you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia" president trump says china is sending strong signals about a trade deal, but uncertainty remains over what was agreed upon in front authorities -- when is aries -- buenos aires. let's cross to washington and our congress editor. werea big question is what the subjects discussed and what was agreed? joe: what was agreed is still unknown. both sides have come out with general statements about a successful negotiation. the presidents tweeted on sunday that there was an agreement on car tariffs. that does not quite seem to be the case. thatord from china now is in fact there was progress and they are willing to make some purchases of soybeans and lng and several other things where there were areas of mutual agreement.
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we still don't know exactly what those areas are. -- are or what the timeline will be. there is a bit of a breakthrough in terms of china and the u.s. talking. a little's talk bit about the sanctions on iran that became a problem for while way. -- huawei. we are now getting that canada has arrested the huawei cfo. can you give us background on why she was sought after in the u.s.? joe: an investigation was revealed in april that there was looking into them for violating sanctions again iran. another investigation did sanctions violations involving zte. when the u.s. slaps sanctions
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and was going to drive zte out of business in the united states, the investigation progress has been fairly quiet up until now. they clearly have gotten some charges. this has been under investigation from the fbi and treasury department since the beginning of the year. this is the next step in that and it is not quite clear how this will play into the larger negotiations between the u.s. and china on trade. ability ofaffect the trade in some of the product suppliest why way huawei why way -- supplies. ,aul: all right, joe sobczyk thanks for keeping an eye on that. there will be more of
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developments unfolding on the while way chief financial huawei cfo. ♪ ♪
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paul: it is 9:30 in sydney, markets opening in 30 minutes time, setting up for a modest bounce. wednesday's drama is where we -- .75%.up point shery: you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news with jenna dagenhart. ceo has: the huawei been arrested on suspicion of violating u.s. trade tensions against iran. she was detained in vancouver last saturday at the request of u.s. authorities seeking extradition. a bail hearing will be set
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friday. there could be a publication ban. saudi arabia and allies are at a curb onrecommending oil. they ask for donald trump to keep the tax open and the price only. this, but theyng were not specific. agreement would include one million barrels a day removed from the market. this man is optimistic about the trade truce agreed by presidents trump and xi at the g20. both sides are seeking to deescalate tensions but they warned about minor reform needed as well. the u.s. and china should find some kind of an accord in the next few weeks. optimistic. it shows both sides desire to
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deescalate the trade deflation. newster: it means battle for china's -- bad news for china's auto industry. there is an volume of unsold cars. it is the highest ever. fallen, looking at a tradee in two decades as war hurts demand and spending power. washington said goodbye to president george h w bush in an emotional ceremony at the national cathedral. george w. bush called his father a leader of unrelenting optimism and say his father taught him what integrity means. president trump -- president bush was the last u.s. president to fight in wartime. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter,
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powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jenna dagenhart. thank you. u.s. stock and bond markets were closed today on this national losses,ourning, so no not a lot of signals from wall street. we will see what asia does as markets took a plunge in the last session. sophie kamaruddin in hong kong tells us what we should be watching out for. we anticipate some calm after disruptions. asian stocks look to set 8 -- step two date decline. when it comes to stocks to watch, we are keeping an eye on apple iphone suppliers after a lens maker forecasted continued weakness in revenue on waning demand. keeping an eye on japan display, sk hynix and others. an iphonecomes as casing supplier reported a drop
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in sales and we are looking to results's fourth order after the market slipped thursday for more clues on the outlook of apple and its suppliers. cicada bears watching as it faces a downgrade. moody's and s&p likely to cut the company's rating to the lowest two years before junk with this acquisition of debt from shire. looking at local reports that may haveitsubishi received a stick to sell. after the flight of hayes and -- flight to haven assets, australian bonds are holding steady, 2.1%, the lowest level of the year after the gdp miss added another link to the bond rally. so this could be giving way. thank you. let's get more on what we should be watching as trading gets underway in asia.
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we have the global markets editor adam haigh. no real needs from the u.s. overnight, so it is muted for equities, but we have treasury market reopening. adam: we are at an interesting moment. we have that fairly pronounced rally in bonds at the start of the week, then we went into the holiday, the closure of the markets on wednesday. we have had that little pause. now when the treasury market opens it is all eyes back on this idea of where are we in the yield curve, flattening in a potential inversion. clearly on three and five year treasuries we have already had keyinter-blow to zero, but to people still watching are the twos and tends spread, narrowing but not quite got to inversion level yet. that is one really very good
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predictor of u.s. recessions in data going back to the 1970's. any further move down in treasury yields when the market gets open and running in a couple of hours will be interesting. there is a lot of confusion on the state of play for u.s. economic growth into 2019. that has been expressed by the fed and will get some information from powell when we have the december meeting. last night there was signs of optimism fading, the local districts across the u.s. playing into the hands of the bond bulls that are expecting more of a further rally in the markets. all eyes on the treasury market open shortly. shery: how is the bulls' case looking for friday? adam: it has been a tumultuous
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time for equities, but there is still the center of the conversation really is around how much earnings growth you are going to get into 2019. clearly it you will not be getting the 20% or so levels you got on average for s&p 500 companies this year. the average forecast is around 10%. there is plenty of people that think even getting 10% earnings growth is a tall order and tough ask. it begs the question how much you are really getting on a return basis from u.s. equities. plenty of people have been dialing back their global equity exposure, taking money out of the u.s. and putting that into emerging-market assets. it is still very finely balanced going into these last two weeks. shery: adam haigh, global markets editor. you can find these charts on the gtv library, gtv , on the
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bloomberg. messages from some central banks seem to indicate policymakers are becoming less confident in the strength of their economies. kathleen hays is here with a case-by-case look. the reserve bank of india's decision to hold, not a surprise. the question is could the move next be a tut? kathleen: that is the question in the air, and they were expected to pause, not hike again. is dying back its hawkish tone. inflation has eased. go to the bloomberg library. here is the key rate holding again, 6.5%. look at what inflation has done. around the middle of the year the bank was concerned inflation would continue to go above target. look how it has fallen below
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target. it maintained what it calls a calibrated tightening stance. that means a hike is a must as likely as a cut. they forecasted gdp, held at 7.4% even though it fell -- that is for the fiscal year 2018. it fell to 7.2%. urjit patel at the conference said commensurate policy actions could be taken if inflation continues to undershoot. you got to sit back and watch the inflation rate. 3.2%,ut their forecast to a big drop from where it had been. bonds rallied because the r.b.i. said they would have to buy more debt. it has been a battered bond market. everyone was waiting for brouhaha over the battle with the government but mr. modi,
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that didn't transpire. the big news is what is next for the r.b.i. it could be a cut. paul: the bank of canada surprising with a dovish statement. what is their assessment? kathleen: oil theory that is the biggest export in canada. it is the ability of the crisis for the country. they are back there optimistic view of the economy. they held rates steady at one point, 7.5%. the drop in oil, risk to their economy overall. it is something they are watching closely. they also cited a faster than expected deceleration in inflation. you can see how the inflation rate is falling no doubt in part because oil has fallen. the governor of the bank of england concerned here. now that concern is growing last. -- less. hebrews to the key rate five
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times since 2017. they want to get closer to 3%, close to normal. this is the next rate hike and the number for the bank of canada, those are also dropping in markets as well. brexit top ofu k, mind not only for the u.k. but bankers. is tryingtheresa may to get a compromise good the longer she has to battle, the more people are worried about no deal, the hard brexit. we heard from ross mcewan, the head of the royal bank of scotland. he said the problem is it is causing uncertainty. businesses are not investing because of that. this could cause a big slowdown in growth. could he mean recession? >> we have seen what breaking this link up, going through a process with williams were supposed to have broken out part of the bank. 2.4 billion
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it is easy to save break banks up, but is difficult to extract them because of technology that runs a bank. it is much more difficult than people think. kathleen: the bank of england, mark carney warned the estimate for what happened to the u.k. in a hard brexit, some say it is too harsh. 8% drop in gdp, 30% for home prices, i could go on and on. it is important to see a banker see a business person making a statement as well about how important it is to avoid the hard brexit. thank you. wielding a user data like a bargaining chip, we will break down revelations from the trove of released internal emails from facebook. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: i am paul allen. shery: i am shery ahn. you are watching daybreak australia. a former pboc governor says his optimism about a trade truce with the u.s. and china showing a mutual desire to tone down the tension. speaking to us in rome, he relied -- warned against relying too much on a bilateral approach and said the wto is needed. optimistic. it shows the both sides have the trade to deescalate this differences, try different ways to ease the options, the frictions. on the other hand, identify some element of the
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trade. tradingit it is violence on the chinese -- [indiscernible] will be over american exports. ,n the other hand the structure like the protecting property rights, technology transfer, theft, irusion, cyber think in chinese society, we have a strong meaning to reform domestically. use this kind of pressure to accelerate the legislation, regulation, but
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especially more involvement in this regard. think for 90 days, personally i am optimistic both sides can reach an agreement on that. words fromthe next china with a trade war? one is already mentioned. [indiscernible] the trade war do you think? i think for chinese society we sincerely hope for this. soft inoblem should be the multilateral occasion through the wto mechanism. people don't
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anticipate a serious wto reform. some of reform are really one of the risk is bilateraltoo much negotiation or compromise among each other. it could cause a problem to today's multilateral mechanism [indiscernible] based system. shery: we are hearing from the iranian oil minister seeking -- speaking to reporters and saying iran is unhappy qatar is leaving opec. we had the announcement earlier this week. qatar makes 2% of production within the opec group. he also said they won't comment on iran oil exports, whether that means oil cuts or production.
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iran is currently under u.s. sanctions. opec isster saying that not part of the u.s. secretary of energy. we have seen president trump tweeting about iran, oil production and the price of oil, paul. paul: we are seeing pushback from some of these comments against the u.s.. saying opec is not part of the u.s. department of energy and shouldn't give an output level because the u.s. would use that to pressure iran. also saying iran wouldn't be leaving opec and it would look for an exemption from opec, whatever that is. we are still waiting for that. some news out of iran there. [speaking simultaneously] and $70 aween $60
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barrel would be acceptable. you are seeing that right now around $61 a barrel the past week. study of internal in emails at facebook offers an insight into how the company use personal data to gain an edge. let's go to san francisco. sarah frier is joining us. they were released under a u.k. investigation in social media's role of spreading fake news but the takeaway is really something else, how facebook is using data as a bargaining chip. sarah: the mavs reveal how tocial user data is facebook's competitive position. we see facebook to liberating how much data to give to outside developers and who to restrict access from. zuckerberg personally had a list
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he maintained of competitors he felt should not be able to advertise on facebook or use their tools. there is some examples here of facebook shutting off access to people they thought were too big and threatening. facebook is in this position of incredible amounts of power and will be scrutinized on these movements. shery: our tech reporter there in san francisco. investing to make a difference, sustainable finance is in full swing in new york. we will speak to one ceo about his focus on southeast asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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businesses from all over the world have come to new york for a sustainable finance conference. they focus on investing that makes a difference. one of the presenters had an nonverbal form that is the global view and focusing on
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southeast asia. ramy inocencio is here with what the ceo of the global impact investing network -- ramy: i would like to introduce you to our midst -- and you to have been toview china and india. you have been talking about the growth in terms of the wealth into impact investing. tell me more. >> it is an exciting time to talk about investing in asia. for my recent trips, one thing i gleaned, though there is a long tradition of investing, it is taking off. wealthye increasingly families in asia who want to put their money to work to have a positive impact on the world. where ilies in india was a month ago. our network from that this is emerging in china mainland and in hong kong as
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well as a number of southeast asian countries including indonesia, malaysia and vietnam. it was an exciting, dynamic time. folks when they think about emerging markets, they say we know there is growing wealth, but what degree can you quantify this? >> one of the things we have the past fiveer years asia-pacific is the fastest growing region in the world. i can speak to the data and anecdotes from my recent trip we are seeinggly institutional investment capital and in visceral -- individual that is becoming more involved in impact investing. it is only the tip of the iceberg for the full potential we see in asia. ramy: i know you released a survey of southeast asian nations, 11 countries. cambodia was the biggest
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receiver of impact investing funds. let's bring up that chart. we can see for cambodia it was $400 million. what is happening? time that a dynamic is also built on micro-finance work. that is the ability of financial services, lending, to lower income populations and micro looms area that has fueled a lot of investment throughout the country. it is interesting that helps highlight the diversity we see in southeast asia and across all of asia. ramy: the challenges in terms of the environment also lend themselves to impact investing opportunities. where is one of the big opportunities? >> we are seeing opportunities throughout asia, both from an environmental perspective, whether it is people wanting to put capital to work in sustainable forestry or
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renewable energy but also being deployed to address poverty. in asia there is tremendous wealth and tremendous need. we see many impact investors based in asia, putting their money to work to help improve livelihoods of lower income asians. ramy: we will have to leave it there. for coming thank you to the bloomberg global responsible investing forum, and we look ahead to the next time you are here. back to you. thank you for that and the impacting investment ceo. that is almost it for daybreak australia p let's check in on the markets. we have trading in new zealand up and running, currently looking -- there we go. a bit of a rebound after the wednesday sale down -- sell down. futures in australia poised for a good day, higher by .3%, the
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dollar below $.73 after the disappointing gdp read. trade numbers will be out later on. that is it for daybreak australia. the action of daybreak asia coming up next. ♪
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good morning, i am paul allen in sydney where markets have opened for trade. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to daybreak asia. paul: our top stories, pressure on huawei. canada has arrested the cfo at washington's request for alleged sanctions busting and iran. president trump said china is sending a strong signals about a trade deal


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