tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg January 25, 2019 1:30pm-3:30pm EST
on bloomberg television. it's expected to begin moments from now. former trump advisor roger stone says he believes his arrest in the special counsel's russia probe was politically motivated. he says he will not plead guilty and will fight the charges. stone spoke to reporters after he was released from a florida courthouse today as protesters tried to drown him out with chants of "lock him up." accused ofsely making false statements during my testimony to the house intelligence committee. that is incorrect. any error i made in my testimony would be both immaterial and without intent. i find it disturbing that the special counsel's office released a press release prior to informing my attorneys that i would be charged today.
chart with was witness tampering, obstruction and lying to congress. he was released on $250,000 bail. ofs of thousands demonstrators will take to the streets across france this weekend to protest president emmanuel macron's policies. it will be the 11th straight weekend of protests which began as results -- revolts over fuel taxes. a taxent macron canceled hike but is still facing a long list of demands from protesters, including a measure that would allow citizens to propose new laws. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm taylor riggs. i'm amber toronto,
can war. we begin on breaking news, awaiting comments from president trump any moment on the shut down from the rose garden. we will bring you there live as soon as that happens. i want to bring in our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. what are the latest about the reports that trump might be endorsing a short-term bill to reopen the government, do you believe that? reportinghington post that there has been some type of agreement reached, tentative agreement by capitol hill aides with the white house. they are citing capitol hill sources, not white house sources. in moments we are hearing from senior administration officials that president trump will come out to make some type of announcement about the partial government shutdown. earlier today, news from the airport from laguardia, as well as newark and philadelphia airports, impacted by these
delays as a result of faa employees not being able to work. that added a new sense of pressure to this longest partial government shutdown in u.s. history. meanwhile the white house also rocketed by bombshell reports posted hisstone, who $250,000 bond bill in fort lauderdale after he was indicted this morning. so all of this comes at a time in which president trump is set to make an announcement about the partial government shutdown in just moments from the rose garden. but he also will likely face questions from reporters about roger stone. it has been a very busy and dramatic morning here, afternoon now here at the white house. amber: is there any notion that hemay further dig in because had been almost single-minded in terms of his messaging, that it was all about funding for the border wall. if it plays out how you and the
washington post suggest, it would signal a retrenchment from that stance. kevin: we started this morning press secretary saying the white house would not get on board with any short-term agreement unless it included a significant down payment for the wall. on capitol hill, sources i talked with, particularly democrats, pushed back that they would become bowl but anything that was funding for the wall. we don't have the specifics of the deal, but should this be a short-term agreement without a down payment for the wall, that would be a loss for president trump, as well as supporters of the wall. that said, should they reach a tentative deal, and the government is reopened, that would put back on the table the state of the union address on tuesday night. we should note the market reaction, with stocks trending upward following the pressure that we saw at the airports even markets looked at that as new added pressure to get an incentive to get to some type of
agreement. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell speaking to reporters, saying they were working with democrats to craft a deal earlier today. we should also note, senator tim kaine, a democrat from virginia, said that the situation with the airports added more pressure to get to some type of agreement. yesterday, we saw various competing forms of legislation fail to get much traction but vice president mike pence was on capitol hill meeting with republican leadership. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell also meeting with chuck schumer as these negotiations continue. this is a there' short-term deal to reopen the government, can you remind our does thisow long short-term bill reopen the government for, and then what happens? are we doing this all over again? kevin: yes, in washington, they are kicking the can down the
road. the short-term agreements we reported on previously would keep the government funded through february 8, only a couple weeks, so they would have to strike a longer agreement. the 800,000or furloughed federal employees, it would allow them to get their tw will pay checks now missed because of this partial government shutdown. the economic impacts felt throughout the country from all businesses to airports. it would reopen the government, take some of the political pressure off and allow for the government to be reopened while lawmakers continue to hammer out a longer-term deal. mind you, the backdrop to all of this, the debt ceiling fight, just over one month away, end of february, early march. the china u.s. trade talks continuing. the delegation expected at the end of january. then we have the situation in venezuela. so there's a lot of pressure right now on this administration
as the mueller investigation has intensified this morning, and pressure coming from republicans in the senate. people like mitch mcconnell, who ushered in new types of republicans yesterday who voted in a bipartisan way, people like lisa murkowski, susan collins, and mitt romney, republican of utah. there are now growing factions within the republican party in the senate who appear poised to break with the president when they feel they must. that is pretty significant because on a host of other issues, the party has proven to be very sticky with respect to donald trump. you talk about a whole number of things that could be pressuring donald trump to come out today and make a concession, if that is what he will do you can you speak to the economic portion of that? certainly feels, as we hear more and more companies reporting
quarterly results, calling out the effect of the shutdown, a number of banks taking down their estimates for first-quarter gdp. how material do you think that is for a president who really prides himself on the economic growth numbers and stock market numbers? kevin: when you have senior economic officials say the quarterly gdp will be impacted by the partial government shutdown am a look no further. percent of gdp could be slice off of growth as a result of this, according to some estimates. then take a look at the economic impacts that you cannot measure, from small businesses, restaurants, taxicab drivers. hundreds of thousands of workers are not showing up to work for the federal government throughout the country. meanwhile, in addition to that, you have seen, day after day, the white house tried to suggest that this is going to ultimately get funding for the wall.
yesterday, we saw from commerce secretary wilbur ross, a walk back of sorts here on bloomberg, after he said publicly on another network, misspeaking so to speak about how federal going to bere retroactively paid. president trump himself criticized his commerce secretary for that messaging. on capitol hill, that really received grimaces from republican sources i spoke with, and democrats speaking out publicly about how that has been impacted. the back and forth from a political standpoint between speaker pelosi and president trump really elevated this dynamic within the past week. it shows that speaker pelosi foley has, as of now, a unified democratic caucus. what we saw yesterday in the senate with republican senators breaking in a bipartisan way, a group of 16 bipartisan senators,
would suggest that there are some republican senators, including mitt romney, who are poised to break with republican ranks. that matters not just on economic issues but also as you play out the host of issues that are present and very tangible here at this white house. i would again repeat, president trump expected to take questions in the rose garden, moments away to make an announcement of sorts on a partial government funding deal, or some type of announcement pertaining to the shutdown, then migrate to face questions on everything ranging from roger stone's indictment, as well as to the situation in venezuela, shutdown, and airports throughout the country. taylor: thank you, kevin. when we get those announcements, we will bring you back for more. wereore on the faa, they putting a brief stop earlier on
in down flights as part of the partial government shutdown, as that continues, i want to bring in viviana hurtado from laguardia airport. what is the tone on the ground, , dopassengers frustrated they see big delays? what is the field on there? the question. the faa stating that staffing are nowt these hubs back to normal, but make no mistake, the delays are being felt, certainly here at laguardia and throughout the system. i'm going to step out of the shot so that we can zoom in and see what is happening here over terminal b. this is the area that services american airlines. we see about half of the flights on the board are yellow, which means delayed.
to let you know, the afternoon rush, this is a really critical time. a lot of the folks that you see right now, they are the ones going home on friday after working in new york, going away for the weekend. just to let you know, flights ,ave resumed at the airport certainly here at laguardia, new work, and philadelphia. the disruption is continuing right now. we are looking at the twitter pages of laguardia, newark, philadelphia, all of them noting there could be delays of about one hour, so expect that. remember, it is not just impacting the u.s., it is impacting our global audiences. flights that maybe traveling to other parts of the world because those three airports service international flights. again to recap, what happened was, a staffing shortage at the air traffic control hub. these are the hubs that take
care of what is considered high altitude flying in the d.c. and florida area. that staffing is up to normal, but overall, expedition security administration noting there are staffing sort of just, -- shortages, absenteeism of about 7%, which is about double from normal. in the 35th day of the federal partial government shutdown, this impasse that kevin was speaking about, maybe some movement and resolution. up until now it has been an impasse between president trump as well as the democrats. the passengers here and at other airports to what the country are the ones that are caught in that process. amber ann taylor, back to you. thank you, viviana hurtado.
we are awaiting comments from president trump on the shutdown in the rose garden, moments away, we will bring you there live. for more on this, let's bring in peter with cantor fitzgerald, a chief strategist. thank you for being with us. i want to get a sense, as the shutdown drags on, you are already pretty this a mystic for the outlook on u.s. equities for 2019. how are you factoring in this specific issue? >> clearly, this is one more brick in the wall of worry. stocks are rebounding early on in the year. of course, we have trade with china, as well as a number of issues, including botched communication, which i've written about, by the fed on the itss of the ecb ending quantitative easing program. there are a number of fundamental reasons why the market sold off into the end of last year, exacerbated by the
fed communication. this is clearly an important issue, but to me, not the foundation of why i'm concerned. i'm more concerned about title global financial conditions which is a function of what the fed has done so far, and what central banks are starting to do, which is pull back on the amount of accommodation they are providing to the market plates. -- marketplace. that is a much more important factor, especially because when developed markets raise rates, like the fed has been doing, it impacts emerging markets. it causes currency depreciation and slow down in their economy because they are forced to raise rates. emerging markets are the growth engine of the world right now, 70% of gdp growth coming from emerging markets. that is a big concern. a slowdown in europe, housing market in the u.s. is slowing. much of this, the root cause is the tighter financial conditions
caused by the fed raising rates and the ecb taking its put off of the qe gas. taylor: i'm curious what you mean. they had been working on increasing their level of communication and transparency. what do you mean by where they went wrong? peter: the december meeting, a week after the ecb announced that it would end qe. chairman powell said the reduction of the balance sheet was on autopilot. then stated that he thought it was a good idea. he sounded a bit intransigent to participants, relative to the expectations of a more dovish communication. since then, we have written about this, and we expected the market to rally on improved munication. since that meeting, that press conference, a number of fed governors have come out and introduced this concept of flexibility, policy will be
flexible to economic conditions. that was the idea all along, by the way. it is just the way it was communicated in december was not what markets had expected. i think that is what pushed equities, the s&p 500 in particular, below 2500, down to that christmas eve day low. we are waiting for president trump to address the rose garden. want to bring the viewers up-to-date on further details that we are getting. multiple reports suggesting we could be getting a temporary end to the shutdown that was originally reported by the wall street journal. the new york times now suggesting that temporary and would be just a reprieve of before i guess setting a deadline for when a deal may get done. just want to bring our viewers up-to-date, that is what we are waiting for as we speak to peter , who you have mentioned, this is not the key driver that you are looking at.
.t is all about central banks certainly, jerome powell has come under fire by trump himself. because yourthat view that the fed is making a policy mistake, that trump was right to come out and say something? opine i'm not going to about saying something or not was right or wrong. not the first time it has been done. ronald reagan did it with paul volcker, according to his new book. i really think the fed will act in the best interest of the economy, based on its dual mandate. i don't think it is influenced by politicians on a day-to-day basis. andink it is independent will not be swayed in any way, one way or the other, by anything that any president, frankly, may say to it. frankly, i think the idea that chairman powell would dig his heels in because something was
said to him is sort of ludicrous to me. i don't think that is the way sophisticated central bankers look at their role in the system. to me more about what you mentioned about the u.s. economy, slowing housing market, how that folds into your call on the s&p. you had a target of 2390. expecting the markets to roll over perhaps in the second half. pull thath me how you into a slowing u.s. economy. you said the housing market is slowing, mortgage applications are improving a little bit, so is that not enough? emma: i don't think it is. let's look at why mortgage rates have come in. point 626r hit three in october. the markets risked off almost immediately. 30-your mortgage rates hit 5% national average.
rates came down because of the risk off in equities. against to flow out of risk assets, equity markets, and back into the long and of the u.s. curve, depressed mortgage rates. you could make the argument that that is good for housing. but when people look at their 401(k)s and they see that they have depreciated or that the stock market is more volatile, they feel less confident about whether or not they can buy a home. that is largely an offset to where mortgage rates are. people do need down payments. those requirements are a lot higher than they were precrisis. amber: what do you say to the pushback on the argument that even though central banks and the federal reserve are increasing rates, that they are still fairly accommodative relative to history? when you look at the balance sheets, even if they pull back, globally, central bank talent sheets are likely to stay elevated for some time. butr: two excellent points,
central bank balance sheets have actually started to contract or the first time this year. what matters most is marginal accommodation. markets and market participants adjust to conditions, zero rates , they change their behavior when it comes to investment, risk tolerance based on where rates are at a particular time. what really matters is the move rather than the absolute level. if we think about where fed , ins are right now at 2.5% previous cycles, when the economy slowed, the fed in the last two cycles cut rates by 5% in each situation. rates were higher. however, at 2.5%, that tells me we are near the end of a secular trend in lower rates, and that the fed really doesn't have as much powder to act in a monetary capacity, as it has previously. it would have to move rather quickly back to qe. however, i don't think that is an action the fed wants to take.
the fed want to send a message that what it's done so far has worked, and that they have been able to normalize policy in a real way. taylor: macro, macro, macro. what could be driving the market is we are in the middle of earnings reason. .alk about what we are learning so much of the management commentary has been relatively positive. we heard from the banks, consumer facing banks, highlighting the strength of the consumer. have you learned anything from this earnings season that makes you more bearish? peter: it depends on which sector you look at. apple, of course, was part of that spook we saw talking about the slowdown and a china impacting sales. we have seen some bellwethers, including intel, talking about a go forward that doesn't look particularly rosy. that is important. with respect to banks, net interest margins -- if our assessment of where the yield curve is going is correct, we
think it will continue to flatten. the commercial and industrial loan market is that cyclical extremes. there are $2 trillion in commercial and industrial loans outstanding. even relative to the cycle's trend, that is a massive amount. especially when we consider libor has gone from 60 basis points to years ago to now about 280. multinationals will be feeling the impact of a slower europe. europe is slowing down, clearly. and the slowdown in china we expect to continue. amber: you mentioned china. to what extent do you think a trade deal between the u.s. and china could alter your view for how 2019 plays out? peter: certainly that will help sentiment. there were three pillars to this earlier in the year rally that we were expecting back to 2800. one of those was the optics of a trade deal with china. what a real deal with china is a
very complicated and difficult deal to strike. it involves many different layers, many different facets. it is not just balances of trade we are worried about. there are geopolitical dominance issues, intellectual property. it is a complex and interweaving mosaic. i think we will have to see some sort of a deal really more for the purposes of obstetrics -- optics than substance. the market will look at that favorably. trade has clearly helps to chill china's economy, but there are many other things at work. default rates have gone up considerably in china. a me, the allowance of business cycle in china, is something to help slow china right now, that even monetary policy and cuts to the rrr have had difficulty in counter reacting. amber: thank you, peter, for your thoughts. peter to keeney, chief rockets are at a cantor. we are waiting for donald trump
in the rose garden. according to multiple reports, he will announce some kind of a previous rum the government shutdown. gray bender,n john a republican strategist. the reports right now suggest from the new york times that we are going to get three weeks of a reprieve from this government shutdown. as we wait for donald trump, and we see signs, kevin cirilli reporting that members of the republican party were ready to break from trump, is this a sign of capitulation on the part of donald trump? >> a couple things going on here. first of all, with the president and everything going on, whether you have control of it or not, what was happening particularly with certain things happening at laguardia airport, tsa agents star not to come in, there was too much pressure out there for the president to not relieve
some of that pressure. from a talking point, he will still say he was hopeful that they would have real negotiations, but clearly, that the other side is entrenched and does not care about the shutdown , but that he does care about people and their safety, and therefore is coming up with a new way to do this. it would be a mistake for people to think that this does not mean that he will not be just as committed to getting his wall. taylor: who is under more pressure to get things done? we heard earlier in the week that president poll numbers may be starting to take a small hit from this. where is nancy pelosi, who is under more pressure, urgency to get a real bill that could open up the government? >> not only the president but also a lot of my republican senators and house members who will have top races next year.
frankly, only has to please the democratic caucus that keeps her as leader. i think they are fine with nancy pelosi keeping the government shut and opposing the wall. the president, on the other hand, is looking at 2020, and has to pay attention to the entire nation. therefore, her job was much easier because she had a smaller number of people to please, where he had the entire united states to please. i think that ultimately probably did weigh into the decision somewhat. amber: what do you think the chances are a deal can get done in the next three weeks, if there is this reprieve of the shutdown? >> i think there will be a lot of effort to get it done. the question is how entrenched nancy pelosi and tomorrow are. they say they will not give one sent to the wall. if they go down that path, you will see the president probably use some type of emergency
action to build the wall. i don't see a scenario where the president plans to go into the 2020 reelection and say that the wall is not being built. amber: when you look at the different dynamics, you said that it will ultimately come down to the wall. , if thee other issues government shutdown was taken up as the issue for the border wall, are there other issues down the pike that could be taken up to carry that mental? many look at the debt ceiling being used as the next kind of sticking point. i think some of these will be combined, but let's be honest about it. this has nothing to do with shutting down the government, nothing to do with the debt ceiling. side says thee wall is critical for the security of americans, whether to stop the flow of drugs, gangs
coming in, and doing harm in places like long island, and also for women and children who are being abused by those who would bring them in here, as well as some terrorists -- we know at least some have come in this way. if nancy pelosi says the entire house is not going to ever vote on some type of wall security, i don't think all of these other things matter. the president will either find a way to get it done, or we will be back in this position again. amber: thank you for your insight. back to you, taylor. have been reporting, president trump and congressional leaders are closing in on a deal that would temporarily reopen the
government after a 35 day partial shutdown. sources tell bloomberg the room and calls for funding the government through february not include money for a border wall. the president is expected to make a statement from the white house rose garden presumably about the shutdown and also about his longtime friend and political confidant roger stone who was taken into custody after fbi agents raided his florida home this morning. stone says his arrest was politically motivated. he is promising to plead not guilty and to fight the charges. stone spoke to reporters after he was released from a florida courthouse today, as protesters try to drown him out with chants of "lock him up." "ane says he remains fervid support a president trump." >> there is no circumstance whatsoever under which i will bear false witness against the
president nor will i make up lies to ease the pressure on myself. and completely vindicated. mark: stone is charged with witness temperancampering. he was released on bond. nancy pelosi spoke to reporters on capitol hill about ston'e's arrest. this connection to the integrity of our elections is something we have to get the truth about, but it's also bothersome to see his connections to russia and the president, suggestion set we should question whether we should be in nato, which is a dream come true for vladimir putin. mark: speaker pelosi added "it's very interesting to see the kinds of people president trump has associated with." a judge in new york city has approved changes to the legal team representing harvey weinstein in his rape and sexual
assault case. he was in court today along with his new attorneys including jose baez best known for defending casey anthony in her murder trial. weinstein had been represented by benjamin braffman but the two announced last week that they were parting ways. global news 24 hours a day on air, at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. in new york, 11 a.m. in san francisco. i'm scarlet fu. lisa: this is "bloomberg markets: the close" optimism, global
stocks are set to close out a rocky week on -- with the three green.ndices in the hope for an end to the shutdown. president trump and congressional leaders may be on the verge of a deal to temporarily reopen the government. and earning season rolls on with the tech earnings parade. apple, facebook and microsoft are those taking center stage next week. all of that and more coming up. are waiting comments from president trump. he will be speaking about a temporary deal to reopen the government aftera 35 day partial shutdown. watchsting will be to whether he says anything about the disruptions, particular air travel. we will bring you comments live when we get them. amber: let's hours to goh two before the close, there you are stocks on the rally.
corporate earnings certainly are catalysts, but you would think a disappointing forecast would be a bigger trade on the nasdaq. the journal report that the fed may and its balance erffort earlier than planned. it's a global rally with europe and asia in the green. lisa: in particular, you pinpoint american airlines. this comes, even though la guardia airport did shut down all incoming flights briefly in increaseto an in absences of the control stuff. scarlet: let's go to live pictures from the white house rose garden, where as we mentioned, president trump expected to deliver remarks on the partial government shutdown. he was supposed to be speaking 30 minutes ago p has not yet come out. let's bring in kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. kevin, give us a sense of the i activity in the nation's capital this morning because of yesterday's two failed senate
votes, what has been the state of discussion? wek extension is what we are anticipating - three week extension. president trump likely to make an announcement regarding a three week and stench and that would reopen the government, but we don't know if will include wall funding, which the president has been adamant about. sarah sanders saying earlier today the white house at the white house would not get on board with any type of short-term agreement unless there is a down payment on the wall. meanwhile, following the president's remarks, we are anticipating he will take questions to weigh in on the partial government shutdown which was inundated with a new sense of urgency following the developers at airports at laguardia and new york. newark airport and philadelphia. , roger stone who was indicted, his former personal political confidant. scarlet: one question i have, is how much did the shutdown of laguardia airport, the incoming
flights briefly this morning, how much did that influence the urgency? worksis deal but in the for a while or has this been cobbled together at the last minute in response to more severe outages and problems at airports? kaine: senator tim but it probably to reporters, it of urgency.w sense yesterday vice president mike pence was on capitol hill with senate majority leader mitch mcconnell as well as chuck schumer. there had been ongoing discussions, but mind you both the democratic and republican versions of legislation that had advanced yesterday failed, faile much traction. so the developers at the airports really did add new pressure to this. meanwhile, 800,000 federal employees now missing two paychecks. so, a three-week agreement would allow them, those workers to get retroactive back pay. however, it would still not
solve the issue of the funding of the board, along the u.s.- mexico border. this is a white house under pressure. if you look at polls, you look gdpthe economic impacts, growth shape from this quarter. we have heard from senior officials that they also are anticipating negative economic impacts on this. not to mention the countless economic impacts you cannot measure. the small business growth as well p with her from wall street analysts as well. so, this is a white house under pressure. throw into the mix the mueller investigation, the situation in venezuela, the debt ceiling, the poll numbers, this is a president who is facing a lot of intense political and policy pressure. aarlet: kevin, you paint remarkable picture, but the point is that it's taken 35 days to get the republicans and the democrats to agree to some kind of short-term solution to temporarily reopen the government even if only for
three weeks. is it realistic to think they can negotiate a deal over the next 21 days to keep the government-funded? kevin: that is such a great question, and yesterday when i spoke to democratic lawmakers in congress, they are hard-pressed to provide any type of funding for a wall. itself has become symbolic for them as something, of a nonstarter. when i interviewed the homeland security chairman of the house committee, bennie thompson, a suggested as much. they are willing to get onboard board with some type of varying type of security along the border, whether that includes fencing, drone surveillance and whatnot, but they are not willing to just give away money for a wall. but in contrast, republicans are dug in on this. i spoke with hard-line conservatives who feel that a wall, a wall or bust. now, what is interesting is a bipartisan group of senators yesterday, a group of 16,
including some republicans such as senator susan collins, susan murkowski, cory gardner up for a tougher election fight in 2020 ,and mitt romney, the new senator from utah. they signaled that they would be willing to break with the president and work with democrats under the leadership of mitch mcconnell to broker a deal. that suggest the bottom line if you are watching this that there are republicans in the senate poised to break with the white house when they feel that is the better route. scarlet: thank you so much for that update. we'll be checking in with you throughout the day. the air traffic controllers union's has reported what u.s. air space is no normal with some shutdown affects. earlier the faa halted flights going into laguardia airport because of a shortage of air traffic controllers. certificate flight delays also reported at airports across the eastern seaboard. let's bring in randy babbitt, a
former faa administrator. based on what you have seen, what you heard from your home or colleagues, what is the state of play in washington right now when it comes to the faa? do we have enough people there to ensure safety of air, safety of aircraft? >> they were certainly well step in this began, but we've got a situation where our controllers, it is a stressful job to start with. pay as tonth without that stress. these are folks that have to certify themselves fit for duty. right now there -- it's a self accelerating problem. a few of them: six, u.s. those remaining to do even more. if they are fatigued, they are working six day weeks, 10 hours a day, it takes its toll overtime. yes, they were adequately staffed at the beginning that this is taking its toll overtime. lisa: i have to wonder how many people have to call out before there is a security issue?
in other words what percent of the staff? issue well, i think the is, again, we have got people who have to certify themselves fit to work. everybody we know, you go two or three paychecks not getting them, that is a lot of stress on your family. the mortgage does not stop, the utility bills, none of that stops. in the private sector, if you did not pay anyone, every state law in this country would have you in court. yet, we're asking these people now for more than a month to continue to work without pay. it will take its toll. and these are individual decisions, people take part-time jobs to pay their bills. scarlet: it certainly is taking its toll as we have seen today. randy, give us a sense of the process for canceling flights or grounded flights. made byn is the call the airline versus the airport and management operation versus the faa making a declaration? randy: the good news is as they
were closely together. those decisions are often jointly made when you have a groundstop. and, all, that decision is made when the situation becomes, when there is simply insufficient safety cushion around the operation to ensure safe operation of the aircraft. you just have to stop it and that is what happened this morning. the sad part is the funding for passengers,ow, the fuel taxes and passenger fees, more than adequately pay for all of the tsa and the faa services. going for it, they really ought to give some thought to allowing these agencies to tap into those resources. the money is there. it's put in one pocket but paid out of another. so, i think that is something we should look at going forward to ensure the continued funding of the operation. lisa: i'm just wondering, how does it faa employees do this sort of process where they call out sick or they call in financially stricken, without
taking a political stance? has it become political for the people you speak to or is this just a practical day-to-day type of consideration? y givenwell, an profession, anywhere in the world, you're going to have 5% people,om 2% to the flu goes around here these are individual decisions being made. but, these are truly professionals. at all levels in the faa. think there ist anything political. i think the stress of going taking two paychecks is its toll and people having to look to other places to support their families. scarlet: question for you. can you describe to us what a typical day is like for some of these employees? randy: now, you're talking about faa air-traffic controllers? ok. depending on where you are, it can be's quite a stressful operation. you can imagine what controlling traffic into new york or chicago
or any of the big metroplex areas. it takes an intense amount of concentration. toured one of those facilities, people walk out marveling at how well they coordinate with the pilots to ensure safe operations. allowed price during the day. they have to certify themselves just like a pilot would, that they are fit for duty. when you're not, if you realize you have gone to appoint you are so petite, maybe yours -- so soiguesd maybe you are stress, including outside stress, the fact that you have a mortgage and have not had a paycheck, and perhaps some of the folks in this immunization do not do what is like to have to live literally paycheck-to-paycheck or even a frugal family has enough or maybe to miss a patient. we're now missing multiple paychecks for literally 800,000 people. scarlet: you mentioned several times that these faa employees need to certify themselves,
recertify themselves and what is involved in that? how long does that take? how many people does an evolved? randy: when i say that, every product, every air-traffic controller, when they check in to work, they are literally saying, i am fit to work. i am not fatigued and i'm ready to work. it is not a test they take. they the knowledge they are fit to work. to reiteratet want we are waiting comments from president trump set to speak to reporters announcing a temporary way to end the prolonged government shutdown that is now the longest in history. we are with randy babbitt, a former faa administrator. a lot of people have said that of the issue,t part of the reason why there has been an increase in delays in airports around the country. how much credence do you give that to, that there is inefficiency inherent currently in the faa? randy: well, i think it is not the issue with it faa.
the faa is being run very well. but i think the issue, people are looking not be on the air-traffic control system but the system itself, remember, this is an industry, the aviation industry employs almost 11 million people in this country. it produces something approaching almost $2 trillion worth of economic activity. and, i mean, this shutdown has got to stand on the air hose. we are not able to run the system, which is an incredible, important part of our nation's economy, something like more than 5% of the gross to mr. product of this country is generated from the airline industry -- of the gross domestic product is generated from the airline industry. scarlet: can you give us an example of what kinds of incidents or accidents are more likely to occur when there is insufficient staff? randy, before we get you on that, we see president trump emerging from the white house. he is making his way to the rose garden where he is presume to
say something about reopening the government, even on a temporary basis. lisa, after meeting with members of congress. let's listen in right now. pres. trump: i am very proud to announce today that we have reached a deal to end the shutdown a reopen the federal governmentn. [applause] as everyone knows, i have a very powerful alternative but i didn't want to use it at this time. hopefully, it will be unnecessary. thent to thank all of incredible federal workers and their amazing families who have shown such extraordinary devotion in the face of this recent hardship. you are fantastic people. you are incredible patriots. many of you have suffered far greater than anyone, but your families would know or understand. and not only did you not
complain, but in many cases, you encouraged me to keep going because you care so much about our country and about its border security. again, i thank you. all americans, i thank you. you are very, very special people. i am so proud that you are citizens of our country. when i say " make america great again," it could never be done without you. great people. in a short while, i will sign a bill to open our government for three weeks until fever-tree 15. -- till febrary 15. i will make sure all employees receive your back pay very quickly or as soon as possible. it'll happen fast. i am asking senate majority
leader mitch mcconnell to put this proposal on the floor immediately. of spirit as debate and dialogue, i have seen and heard from enough democrats and republicans that they are willing to put partisanship thee, i think, and put security of the american people first. i do believe they are going to do that. they have said they are for complete border security, and fullyave finally and acknowledgment that having barriers, fencing or walls, or whatever you want to collect, will be in important part of the solution. a bipartisan conference committee of house and senate willkers and leaadders
immediately began reviewing the request of her homeland security experts and experts they are. and, also, alw enforcement -- law enforcement professionals and have worked with us so closely good we want to thank, port of virtual,-- border all law i.e.cc.e., and enforcement. an incredible. based on operational guidance from the experts in the field, they will put together a homeland security package for me to shortly sign into law. ier the next 21 days, expect that both democrats and republicans while operating good faith. this is an opportunity for all parties to work together for the benefit of our whole beautiful, wonderful nation. a fair deal, the
american people will be proud of their government. for proving that we can put country before party. we can show all americans and people all around the world that unh political parties be ited when it comes to protecting our country and protecting our people. many disagree. but i really feel that working with democrats and republicans we can make a truly great and secure deal happen for everyone. walls should not be controversial. our country is built -- has 654 miles of barrier over the last 15 years at every career border i've spoken with has told me that walls work. they do work. no matter where you go, they work. israel built a wall. 99.9% successful.
one be any different for us. they keep criminals out. they save good people from attempting a very dangerous journey from other countries. thousands of miles because they think they have a glimmer of hope of coming through. with a wall, they do not have the hope. they keep drugs out. and they dramatically increase efficiency by allowing us to patrol far larger areas with far fewer people. it's just common sense. walls work. that's why most of the democrats in congress have voted in the past for bills that include walls an physical barriers and very partial fencesd. the walls we are building are not medial walls. walls.eval they are smart walls.
operationally effective. these barriers are made of steel. have see through visibility, which is very important. and are equipped with sensors, monitors and cutting edge technology, including state of the art drones. we do not need 2000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shining sea. we never did. we never wanted that because we have barriers at the border where natural structures are as good as anything that we can build. they are already there. they have been there for millions of years. our proposed structures will be in predetermined, high risk locations that have been specifically identified by the border patrol to stop illicit flows of people and drugs.
no border security plan can ever work without a physical barrier, just doesn't happen. at the same time, we need to increase drug detection technology and manpower to modernize our ports of entry. which are obsolete. the equipment is obsolete. they are old. they're tired. this is something we have all come to agree on and will allow for quicker and safer commerce. these craig lang investments will improve and facilitate -- will critical investments improve and facilitate legal travel through our lawful ports of entry. also includes desperately needed humanitarian assistance for those being byloited and abused coyotes, smugglers, and the dangerous journey north. the requests we have put before
congress are vital to ending the securityian and crisis on our southern border -- absolutely vital. will not work without it. this crisis threatens the safety of our country and thousands of american lives. criminal cartels, narco- terrorists, trans-national gangs like ms13 and human traffickers are brazenly violating u.s. laws and terrorizing innocent communities. traffickers -- the victims are women. and children. may be to a lesser extent, believe it or not, children. women are tied up. they are bound. duct tape put around the faces come around their mouths. in many cases they cannot even breathe.
they are put in the backs of cars or vans or trucks. they do not go through your port of entry. they make a right turn, going very quickly. they go into the desert areas or whatever areas you can look at, is no soon sas there protection, they make a left or a right into the united states of america. there is no one to catch them, no one to find them. they cannot come through the port, because of they come through the port people will see four women sitting in a van with tape around their face and around their mouths. can't have that. and that problem, because of the internet, is the biggest problem, never been like this before, that you can imagined. it is at the worst level, human the history of
the world. this is not a united states problem. this is a world problem. they come to areas where they have no protection, where they have no steel barriers, where they have no walls. .e can stop almost 100% of that reaped by these murders organizations are used to fund their malign and destabilizing contact throughout this -- conduct. officesr alone i.c.e. remove 10,000 known or suspected gang members like ms13 and members as bad as them. horrible people. tough, mean. sadistic. .n the last two years, i.c.e officers arrested a total of 2 66,000 criminal aliens inside of the united states, including those charged or convicted as nearly 100,000 assaults, 30,000
sex crimes, and 4000 homicides or, as you would call them, violent, vicious killings. can be stopped. vast quantities of lethal drugs, including meth, fentanyl, heroin and cocaine are smuggled across our southern border and into u.s. schools and communities. drugs kill. americansthan 70,000 a year and cost our society in -- in of $700 billion $700 billion. the sure volume of illegal immigration has overwhelmed federal authorities and stretch our immigration system beyond the breaking point. nearly 50 migrants a day are
being referred for medical assistance. they are very, very sick. making this a health crisis as well. a very big health crisis. people have no idea how big it is unless you are there. our backlog in the immigration court is now far greater than have been0 cases you hearing about over the last couple of years. think of that, though. 800,000 cases. obsolete.r laws are so obsolete. they are the laughing stock all over the world. our immigration laws. all over the world, they have been there for a long time, are the laughing stock all over the world. we do not have the necessary space or resources to detain,
house, vet, screen and safely process this tremendous influx of people. in short, we do not have control over who is entering our country, where they come from, who they are, why they are coming. the result for many years is a colossal danger to public safety. we're going to straighten it out. it is not hard. it's easy, it's given the resources. last month was the third withght month in a row 60,000 apprehensions on our southern border could think of that. we apprehended 60,000 people. that is like a stadium full of people, a big stadium. there are many criminals being
apprehended by vast numbers are coming because our economy so strong. we have the start of the economy now in the entire world. you see what is happening. we have nowhere left to house them. -- we way to promptly cannot get them out because our laws are so obsolete. so antiquated and so bad. without new resources from congress, will be forced to release these people into communities, something we do not want to do, called catch and release. them, even if they are criminal. you then release them and you cannot release them from where they came. so, they going to our country. and end up in places you would we suspect -- would least suspect. we do as little releasing as
possible that they are coming by the hundreds of thousands. i have had zero democrat lawmakers volunteer to have them released into their districts or states. and i think they know that. and that is what we are going to be discusseing over the next three weeks. the painful reality is that the tremendous economic and financial burdens of illegal immigration fall on the shoulders of low income americans, including millions of wonderful patriotic, law- abiding immigrants, who enrich our nation. as commander-in-chief, my high est priority is the defense of our great country. operationalrrender control over the nation's cartels,o foreign traffickers, and smugglers. we want future americans to come
to our country legally enter a system based on merit. we need people to come to our country. we have great companies moving back into the united states. and we have the lowest employment and the best we'vement numbers that ever had. there are more people working in the united states today then haveever worked -- than ever worked in our country. we need people to come in to withus with the farms and all of these great companies that are moving back, finally they are moving back to people said it could not happen. it has happened. we want them to enjoy the blessings of safety and liberty and the rule of law. we cannot protect and deliver these blessings without a strong and secure border.
i believe that crime in this y antry can go down bu massive percentage if we have gr eat security. on our southern border. largeeve drugs, percentages of which come through the southern border, will be cut by a number that nobody will believe. so let me be very clear. we really have no choice but to build a powerful wall or steel barrier. if we do not get a fair deal from congress. the government will either shut on february 15 or i will use the powers under the laws and the constitution of the
united states to address. this emergency. we will have great security. and i want to thank you all very much. thank you very much. that was president trump including his remarks as the rose garden -- at the rose garden the upshot is that he has reached a deal to reopen the government after 35 days. how this would reopen the government for three weeks until february 15, but after that he said that he needs a deal with congress when that, would address border security but he friend uses powerful alternative to declare a state of national emergency. bea: or he said he would open to shutting down the government again, which i think is really telling, given that
there is this much pushback. kevin cirilli is at the white house. the speech began with somewhat of a conciliatory note but quickly went into something that resembles what president trump had talked about before, the need for border security. what was your big take away from the speech? kevin: president trump delivering possession -- a ancession of sorts for three-week reopening of the log us government shutdown in no down payment on a wall. in the second sentence of his speech, he said in a threat of sorts that he would use national emergency powers, that's still on the table, should he not get the type of deal they need come february 15. the government reopens, he says the 800,000 federal employees will receive their payment as soon as possible. he is commissioning a bipartisan working group to continued to hammer out the details around the issue of border security.
there was a period in his address in which he seemingly a walkbes a smart wall, back in terms of the barrier that he had campaigned on. but then he concluded the speech by saying that a wall was something that they needed to have. so, the bottom line? the government reopens for three weeks. no down payment on a wall. the president not taking questions about a host of issues that have plagued us in washington today. and, well, it is back to the drawing board for lawmakers on capitol hill. they have got now three weeks to hammer out a deal. scarlet: the clock begins ticking. we're going to stay on the story, lisa. and marty schenker, bloomberg's chief content officer and with us by phone is john summers, formertic strategist and communications director to harry reid and president of summers strategies. marty, let me start with you. when we were looking at the
president it was notable he came out on his own, there was no one else with him. he did not have any members of the senate or the house of representatives with him. he didn't take any questions, either. the optics are very much one man presenting his answer and leaving it there without taking any feedback. know, this was hardly a celebration in my view. this was a situation. capitulation. same deal hethe could've had three weeks ago before the shutdown began to a lot of people will be reflecting on the fact that donald trump did not get his wall money. i will say also that the idea of another shutdown in three weeks i think is very, very remote. i don't think either the senate republicans or the democrats have any desire to go through another shutdown. and i think that should that be the case, they would override the veto. scarlet: john, come on in.
do you agree that this is essentially a victory for the democrats and a loss for president trump and he did not secure while funding? john: absolutely. the american people won and trump lost. heldlost because democrats firm, they took the pulse of the country, they knew that the american people didn't think it was worth just shutting down the entire government over one single, not even a single issue but a single element of an issue, that being the wall. so, the american people came out on top this time. frankly, i don't know why donald trump did not just go ahead and cave 35 days ago. we could have not had to go through all of this but i am glad that we finally have found some sort of resolution at least for the next three weeks. scarlet:a resolution for the next three weeks but it still comes back to that $5.5 billion that the president wants for his wall. what kind of concessions to do think the democrats would be willing to make in terms of allocating more money to border necessarily toot
that physical structure that he keeps fixating on? jon: here's the thing. it is not the democrats. democrats have never been opposed any sort of physical barriers. we all know there are already hundreds of miles of barrier, whether it is wall or fencing or whatever along the border. we have never been opposed to that. and, actually, last year we brought to the president a $25 billion border security bill that included funding for a wall and many other elements that he turned down because he heard from the extremist in his party who said that would not work. i reallyest, what appreciated and hearing the president speech day was him talking about it in a way that he should've been talking about it from the very beginning. yeah, we need a physical barrier but we also need drones and we need these other things because a wall is not for security. somebody has to be looking out over the wall and people crawling tunnels and all that.
lisa: one thing i'm wondering is what does it -- tell us the reported in leadership and mitch mcconnell and his relationship with president trump and how they interceded here? asty: i do think the pain, evidenced by the laguardia shutdown temporarily today, that is where i go in terms of the senate realizing that they do not want another shutdown. so, even if they do not reach a deal in three weeks, which is, i think, not necessarily a done deal, may be very difficult to reach a deal in three weeks, they, i think, will have the backbone to go to the president and say, we need more time. and you have to give us more time. so, i think that the dynamic of the shutdown has probably emboldened some of the republicans to actually try and work out a compromise with the democrats that might otherwise
been possible 35 days ago. scarlet: do you agree with marty it is unlikely we will have another government shutdown starting february 15, that some of the republicans, maybe it will be a leader mcconnell, will defy the president? jon: well, you know, what this whole thing is been about is the democrats desire to reopen the hevernment and then have t negotiations about how we want to secure our borders. and that is where we are today. as a result of that, i, at this [laughs] -- at this particular moment, i feel fairly confident they will be able to come to an agreement as well. i do not think it is going to come down to another government shutdown. again, we have come up with these agreements before. as i mentioned last year with each one he $5 billion. that all died with president trump your a know that in congress, democrats and the
providence can come together because we have done it on this issue. now it is a matter of taking some the to the president he is going to accept, and i think he is going to be going to except something at least closer to what we offered last year, than what he was demanding just earlier today. scarlet: we'll see if that happens. andthanks to jon summers marty schenker. also in politics because this is helped form the backdrop, longtime republican strategist roger stone tells reporters he's being falsely charged with tbstructing rober mother's investigation. he said that no one asked him to contact wikileaks and he denied working with russians to help the campaign. for more, we want to bring in our legal reporter following this very closely. greg, remind us again of the exact charges that roger stone and what it all means when you boil it down. greg: first of all, he restores
only with making false statement's with instructing an investigation. he was not charged with any of the underlying conduct that mueller has been looking for. collusion between the campaign and russia. however the, the details that were basically disclosed in this indictment is born, point to some level of collusion at least with wikileaks that was being brokered by stone. so, it appears as though special counsel is trying to get stone, basically put the pressure on him, with what looks to be a slamdunk case about witness intimidation, full state mr. congress. -- false statements to congress. the matter what he said in the courthouse steps, roger stone, it is also slamdunk, this case. mueller was put pressure on him and threatened more if he will cooperate. scarlet: what does this tell us about where mullah's investigation is and how closely it has gone to the inner circle of president trump -- where mueller's investigation is? >> it is clear he has come along
way but now he has details about the mechanics of the campaign, deals with steve bannon, the campaign chairman and probably possibly, paul manafort in the summer of 2016. there is a lot of information about contacts with wikileaks, and contacts with this character called -- 2.0. whom mueller revealed was a russian confection not a romanian hacker as was claimed two years ago. so, mueller has come a long way but he is still knocking on the door. he is not inside yet. that will be difficult. scarlet: is mueller's ultimate game plan to get roger stone to become a cooperating witness, to basically flip, what would be the most effective way of doing that? how close is he to doing that? greg: well, i would think that roger stone right now is facing up to 10 years just on these current charges. if you look at what happened to paul manafort, a year and a half ago, mueller hit him with all sorts of charges relate to bank fraud that went back into his business career. i would not be surprised if
mueller has similar information on stone. hrough every t business transaction stone has been involved with and has a raft of that stuff he can hold over him. it comes down to a choice on stones part whether or not he wants to go to war or make peace with mueller. greg farrellks to who covers investigative reporter for our bloomberg legal reporter in new york. we are getting closer to the close of trading in the u.s. and stocks came off their loans when the white house announced in the rose garden announcement, and as president trump spoke about a tempora three-week deal to reopen the government. we saw stocks come down a little bit. but it remains firmly in the green. it is a global advance. with european and asian markets higher as well. from new york and san francisco, this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: lisa: shares of medical are headed for the biggest loss since june, 2000 after the release of second-quarter results. sales showed analyst estimates the most in 4.5 years. here is more is dave wilson. what happened here? >> this is a company that makes devices that people use when they have trouble sleeping. we are talking about sleep apnea and copd. cpap machines, also the related masks and other equipment. what happened is that increasingly you are seeing a shift into the digital world when it comes to this kind of treatment. and they have changed in some countries, notably france and japan, the reimbursement rules that go along with this kind of treatment. is basically saying
that the programs in those two countries -- are played out, so that growth has slowed up for this company. scarlet: yeah, i'm just looking at the earnings estimates for the second half of the year and it looks like and also looking for a 2% growhth in the fiscal third quarter. how is that going to happen? dave: well, the real question scarlet, is will the transition they are trying to make to the digital realm play out? they are growing a business they are calling software as a service. they've m adeade some deals. couple of companies that they bought -- matrix karen health care first. they are in the midst of a deal for propeller health to pay $225 million for that company. they are trying to get beyond their traditional business. there is fast growth in that area, 25% in the last quarter. so, you know, it really comes down to will that transition pay off for the company in the end?
lisa: dave wilson, thank you so much for giving us abreast of all of that. i want to bring you some headlines we are getting from house speaker -- senate leader mitch mcconnell as well as chuck schumer. they both are saying that they are glad to have passed a stopgap bill, that they have agreed to pass a three-week stopgap bill. mitch mcconnell said he was glad it trump and the democrats reach an agreement with negotiations on the department of homeland's package will be prioritized. senator schumer said he expects stopgap to be cleared and signed by trump today. this is senator schumer speaking on the senate floor currently. of course, we did hear from president trump saying that -- the same thing, there is a good faith effort to reach border funding some sort of agreement. we will bring all the details as we get them. from new york, this is bloomberg.
let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. respecting a bonus cut of 20% from last year. bank is giving expectations low after a bad stretch. it missed estimates in the fourth quarter. credit suisse meanwhile took a beating when it was left holding shares of canada -- late last year. bloomberg learned the bank lost about $60 million on the luxury -- makers. shares tumbled as tensions between canada and china rose over the arrest of an executive. jp morgan says of the current price, bitcoin is worth less than it cost to mine it. the cost to create one bitcoin average a little more than $4000 in the fourth quarter.
the currency is trading below $3600. there's a big spread around the average good chinese minors can find low-cost lecture o electri. that's your business/update. scarlet: that breakeven price goes down for those miners. let's recap what happened this hour, because after a 45 minute delay, the president came out and announced he was going to reopen the government for three weeks. it was a temporary truce, i guess, to a temporary shutdown as well because it only keeps it open for three weeks. and now he's pressing still for more government funding for his wall. he hasn't given up on that and in fact trend another shutdown or the possibility of invoking a national crisis, the national state of emergency. lisa: although there is a more constructive tone coming out of senators mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer. interesting, in my mind, is we will have not seen a gain in the
broad equity indices on the heels of this agreement, even though you have a lot of analysts, including bank of america, saying that they expected the shutdown, a prelaunch shutdown to have a negative effect on the gdp. you are not seeing a pop following this. scarlet: we also have not gotten a lot of data. durable goods and new home sales, we did not get any of those today because of the shutdown. you have a rally in place for stocks that mirrors the advances we have seen in europe and asia. the dollar remains lower, did not really budge on the president's announcement. an american airlines kind of otherg a decline in airline stocks get from new york and san francisco, this is bloomberg. ♪ amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.
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motivated and is vowing to plead not guilty at fight the charges. stone spoke to reporters after he was released from custody in florida today. protesters try to drown him out with chance of "lock him up." >> as i had said previously, there is no circumstance whatsoever under which i will bear false witness against the president, nor will i make up lies to ease the pressure on myself. i look forward to being fully and completely vindicated. mark: stone is charged with witness tampering, obstruction, and lying to congress. he was released on $250,000 bond. there has been a breakthrough in washington. president trump has announced a deal to reopen the government, for three weeks ending a 35 day partial shutdown. the proposal does not have any funding for cornwall -- for a
border wall. the government could shut down again next month if a deal is not reached. they are smart: walls designed to meet the needs of front-line border agents and are operationally effective. these barriers are made of steel , have see-through visibility, which is very important, and are equipped with sensors, monitors, and cutting-edge technology, including state-of-the-art drones. mark: mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer say they believe the stopgap measure can be passed today. secretary-general warned today that rush hour shows no sign respecting a major colder air and missile treaty and the pact is inthe danger as the u.s. prepares to pull out of it next week.
>> all members of the nato council agreed the treaty has been crucial to security. but the treaty is now in jeopardy. and unfortunately, we have not seen any signs of breakthrough. treatyhe 1987 between the u.s. and soviet union bans production, testing, deployment of ballistic missiles with a range of 310 the 3400 miles. october, president trump warned the u.s. would abandon the treaty because of alleged russian violations. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: it is 3:00 p.m. in new york and noon in san francisco. on scarlet fu. lisa: i'm in for caroline hyde. this is "bloomberg markets: the close." scarlet: president trump agreed to end the partial government shutdown for three weeks with no wall money. global stocks are set to close out a rocky week on a high note with the three major u.s. indexes in the green. earnings season rolls on with the tech earnings parade. apple, facebook on microsoft among those taking center stage next week. all that and more, coming up. first disc of a check of the markets with under one hour to go in u.s. trading. the nasdaq the best of the three major benchmarks. intel's disappointing results aside. let's have a read is that's reason to hide out in safe havens. lower-priced means higher yield overall.
i'm keeping a close eye on cable. the pound has now approached 132, just shy of it. a three-month high. the thinking is a no deal brexit is less likely. no intention to articulate the alternative. lisa: the shift in opinion right now. that sums up brexit. summing up the more positive tone today, nymex crude up. interesting because i can you were saying it is hard -- again you were saying it is hard to find out why people think oil prices will go higher. people are blaming venezuela and the disruption there, but that your narratives. scarlet: something we will talk about later with liam jenning. let's take a deeper dive into today's action with our reporters. we get started with abigail. abigail: so any headlines today to the big one in the last hour with president trump announcing the temporary shutdown of the shutdown.
the government is back up and running until the right 15. what is the effect of the shutdown and the fact that there isn't a shutdown on the s&p 500? take a look at the index since the beginning of the shutdown from december 24 from a trading standpoint3. --actually does standpoint standpoint. it actually started two days before that. could be the start of a leg lower. if we take a look at the weekly chart in the bloomberg, it may suggest that possibility. this beautiful uptrend in 2016 and 2017. and then the whipsawed last year, up and down. pace for, we are on the first down week in five weeks. the shutdown has been so bullish for stocks that we had a four-week winning streak for stocks. right now, a modest decline for the s&p 500. you can see this trend is very firmly broken.
the bulls have a lot of work to do. the weeks ahead could be a little market for stocks even though the government is back up and going for now. >> one individual stock today seeing a clear trend lower is intel after reporting disappointing earnings yesterday after the close. revenue came in short the last quarter, but this is the first time they gave any forecast for 2019. the top and bottom line forecasts came in short for the current quarter we are in and the full year. itsf you look at intel, performance today from you can see it is currently down more than 6%. the worst-performing stock in the s&p 500 on a points basis of what if you look at the philadelphia semiconductor index to see how semiconductors at-large large are doing, they are holding up pretty well. up more than 2%. they are very resilient. intelwas a worry that if flipped the switch after yesterday's strong performance, the index was up more than 5%,
almost matching the gains from the day after christmas. strong since 2011. you look at the makeup and only intel is in the red today. romaine: more than 100 companies, about a quarter of report 500 set to get earnings next week. if the rate of activities that will include some of the biggest names that are most critical to the market. when you wake up on monday morning, caterpillar will be there to greet you, and you will get some sense of what the economic picture looks like. into tuesday, it is a lot of the big industrial names like verizon, 3m, lockheed, and apple. that company set up a big round of market jitters earlier this year when tim cook said do not expect revenue to be as high as what some analysts expected. wednesday going to be jampacked. boeing, at&t, visa, alibaba, paypal. we will hear from facebook and tesla. we round out the week with ge, ups, amazon, chevron, and
exxon on friday. right now, coming in at 14% for the s&p 500 as a whole. that is down pretty significantly from the 25% growth rate that we saw in the third quarter. when you look ahead to the first quarter, this is where things get dicey. analysts expecting 1.7% growth for the first quarter going forward with significant drops in consumer discretionary, energy, and technology. the attention to those three sectors and the companies in those three sectors next week and the forecasts they give for 2019 and specifically for the first quarter because analysts are expecting all of those three sectors as a whole to flip from decelerating earnings growth in the fourth quarter to eps losses for the first quarter. lisa: thank you so much. the next week should be interesting with the earnings. we are following the announcement. a three-week temporary stopgap
bill to end the 35 a partial government shutdown without the border wall funding. this from president trump. ump: i will sign a bill to open our government for three weeks until february 15. i will make sure that all employees receive their backpay very quickly or as soon as possible. it will happen fast. lisa: we have no wall, and we have an open government. whereas president trump go from here? >> welcome a look, i think in look, in terms of what is next, the senate will vote. applause supposedly on capitol hill when they huddled to get this news. president trump announcing the government will be in fact open for three more weeks, but he does not get the guaranteed down payment on funding for the
border wall. 15, it would appear the president is still keeping options on the table to either shut down the government invoke national emergency which would allow him to bypass congress to begin crafting the border security that he would like to see along the border. the volatility coming out of washington is going to continue in the weeks and months ahead. mind you during the televised address, the president did not address other major issues that have really circulated 1600 pennsylvania avenue today, including roger stone's indictment, nor the escalating situation with the airports or the situation in venezuela. scarlet: all the points that he did not mention that, but they were pivotal in terms of influencing the timing of this compromise. do we have a sense that is what did it, those were the catalysts
for the president to decide to reach an agreement? kevin: yes. from our capitol hill team, suggestions lawmakers on both sides of the aisle really did view this happening this morning as crucial coming out of laguardia as well as newark airport in philadelphia -- as well as philadelphi airport and philadelphia -- as well as newark airport and philadelphia. i can tell you i spoke to one source who talks frequently with this administration viewed as an outside communication strategist who told me quite simply that the pressure was palpable coming out this morning of the white house. lisa: thank you so much. we appreciate all of this. we will be getting further updates throughout the day. the interesting thing to me was the market action response to
the integrated circuit was charged in november along with microelectronics of conspiring to steal technology. finally, western digital seeing its biggest gain in six years as analysts highlight signs of improving demand in the company's second-quarter results. the fiscal third quarter and resetting expectations ahead of a stronger second half of 2019. shares of intel, we have been talking about this all day, falling the most in six months after giving a lackluster 2019 forecast. revenue and product forecast missing analyst estimates. cloud computing clients are becoming conscious. those are your social climbers. scarlet: we will stay with intel because the cfo and interim ceo bob swan spoke to bloomberg today about the outlook for the cloud business.
bob: first i start with saying we are extremely excited by the end demand, the workloads, the consumer consumption, things that are driving the use of data continues to grow and be extremely strong. so we feel very good about our position in the market in the long-term, the long-term trends. coming off of a record 2018 where our business grew by 40% during the course of the year, what we see is a buildup of inventory in our customers, and what normally happens is they built the inventory and that in teams to consume it for a wild and then they come back to build more. the reason they are building more is they see the workloads for the and demand to continue to be extremely strong. so what is going on right now is they are in the consumption, digestion mode, and our expectations are they will be back in the second half of the year buying like they have been
the last several years. so we are very bullish on the long-term and are going through a natural digestion after a fantastic 2018 clout performance for us. >> so this is not be cycle rolling over. this is not a story from the cloud computing sector beginning to turn. bob: no. we think demand for data which is driving the ultimate demand for servers and storage continues to grow and be extremely healthy. this is just the normal cycle we have seen over the last several years in terms of how they consume and then digest and then consume again, but the end markets are very exciting and the products that we have coming out during the course of 2019 are very exciting as well. >> you have some formidable competitors like nvidia, amd. what are you doing to differentiate yourself and tell
the intel growth market share story? foremost, itd starts with the size of the market. when we look at the overall pan for silicon, it is a $300 billion market, and we are a very large player with roughly 25% share. so we see significant opportunities to grow. when we look at the key requirements to position yourself for growth, we really see things from a technology standpoint. process manufacturing, architecture, memory, interconnect, software, and security. we talk to our end customers, and they are always saying things are increasingly important for them to solve the growing demand in the end market. we have all those capabilities and haven't invested in those capabilities for a while so we can stitch together -- and have
been invested in those capable it is quite a while so we can stitch together things to solve our customers problems. we have the broadest, most diverse, and best set of products that exist in the industry. scarlet: that was intel interim ceo and cfo bob swan speaking with bloomberg earlier today. the tech earnings plague marches on next week. apple, facebook, amazon to report. joining us now is bloomberg technology executive editor tom giles. let me start with apple because we know the company already preannounced and we saw the immediate reaction. not just the stocks, but overall market. it is known for giving lowball forecasts and beating the forecast.what is the best news apple can deliver to investors next week? tom: the best news is it is not as bad as we gave you the impression it would be.is not armageddon . the analysts we talked to that we surveyed are looking for a 5% decline in revenue.you got to
go back several quarters before you had a performance that bad. what is not good for apple is this is the holiday quarter. this is the time when people should be rushing out to buy devices, smartphones, ipads, etc.. but what they have really seen, what they are suffering from right now is peaks smartphone. smartphones, the market has been saturated. they are also dealing with and did not talk about this as much when they preannounced, they also have competition in china. they had companies, a number of them, who are putting out feature-rich phones at a lower price. apple really skewed its pricing to the hiring of the market with the most recent device. so there just was not the kind of uptick for that that they were hoping for. you have seen them come in with discounting, higher rebate values, for example.
when they issued that warning, it sent ripples across the supply chain. scarlet: a humbler apple for sure. let's talk about facebook because there are reports facebook wants to merge its different businesses, whether it is whatsapp or instant messenger with the main facebook platform. is this something mark zuckerberg is likely to announce? how receptive do you think investors will be to this? tom: i don't think they are going to announce it right away. the statement that facebook been out, they talked about a have to put a lot of internal discussions around this. we know there is internal opposition to any offer to buy facebook management to bring whatsapp, instagram, these two really important big acquisitions that they have added over the last several years.and initially facebook said he would remain independent. but more recently, you have seen those efforts to integrate them. you saw the executives of both of those acquisitions leave in 2018. this internal opposition to it
externally. -- this internal opposition to it. externally, will that increase user engagement? will that make it easier for me to message somebody on whatsapp or instagram across to facebook? scarlet: something we will all be watching carefully, including instagram users who may not be aware they are part of facebook. thank you so much. from san francisco, this is bloomberg. ♪
>> that test will be whether we can keep 60 during the slower demand period for the next six to eight weeks. >> there will be a leader in this market. there is nobody with more than 50% market share today. the highest application percentage of any company in any segment is mid-20's. this generation will see a leader that is much more material than that. >> time now for options insight. i'm abigail doolittle. chicago.e is scott in happy friday to you. looking at a first down week for the s&p 500 in five weeks. you can get perfect consolidation. we have had so many w hipsaws, but this one down.
>> i do not think there is any bearing to this week. so many reports coming out next week. all the big ones are coming out next week. plus, what is going on with the government shutdown even though we have maybe some resolution. there is so much on the table, anything can happen. abigail: i was going to ask you that. is it seen as a temporary band-aid, not changing the picture all that much right now? scott: the markets barely budget when it came out so i think it is a band-aid. earnings,n terms of interesting relative to chips. facebook.what do you think we will see out of some of those companies? scott: i think we are going to see some moderate guidance. as long as we don't see reduced guidance, the market will probably take that positively. that's what i would look for. maybe not gangbusters blowout earnings but as long as there is not that negative guidance committee will be ok. togail: that make sense
bring have expectations were last december. caterpillar reports next week. scott: it is permitted i am not looking for a big upside move but looking for the backstop. 130 puting the 133, spread next week. i can make a dollar or so. if it happens to go lower off of earnings, that's ok.it is a stock i want to own anyways . i'm totally risk defined with the spread of selling it for a dollar. it can go to three. i know what my max risk is. abigail: thank you so much for joining us for options insight. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. president trump and congressional leaders today reached a short-term deal to reopen the government for three weeks while negotiations president'sr the demands for money to build his long promised wall at the u.s.-mexico border. pres. trump: so that be very clear. -- so let me be very clear. we have no choice but to build a powerful wall or steel barrier. if we do not get a fair deal from congress, the government will either shutdown on february 15 again or i will use the powers aff
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