tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 15, 2019 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT
to and an offensive that has drawn u.s. and european sanctions and accusations of war crimes. kurdish-led fighters who fought with u.s. bank inc. to defeat islamic state have been forced to return to bashar al-assad for help. u.k. and european union negotiators are closing in on a draft brexit deal. eu officials tell bloomberg there could be a breakthrough before the end of the day. racing to wrapre up an agreement ahead of a summit this week. if a deal is reached, prime minister boris johnson can present it to the u.k. parliament saturday and avoid having to seek another delay beyond the deadline date of october 31. president trump does not want ohio voters to forget about him as 12 democratic presidential candidates are to take the stage in columbus for the fourth debate tonight. the president's reelection campaign says it plans to use
aerial advertising over otterbein university with a banner saying "socialism destroys ohio jobs. vote trump." they also took out a full-page ad with the actors of the top three democrats, and captions suggesting that they would wreck ohio's economy. actress felicity huffman reported to a prison in california. behind barswo is for writing her daughter's as part ofam scores the college admissions scandal. after she is great, she must perform 250 hours of community service. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter,f the college admissions scandal. after she is great, she must powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
powered by more than 2700shery:d headquarters in new york, i'm shery on. amanda: live in toronto, i'm amanda laying. we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories. jpmorgan widens its edge on rivals as the biggest u.s. banks navigated into mulch was third quarter. we take a look inside earnings. the appetite for gold. .e talk to peter grosskopf and google is holding its biggest hardware event of the year. we are live in new york city with the latest unveiling. shery: let's get started with a quick check on the major averages. we
with the latest unveiling. are seeing upside with the major indices now gaining more than 1%. we see the dow adding more than 250 points, at a three-week high at the moment, as the s&p 500 is being led higher by health care and technology shares. the nasdaq also at a three-we kind. we are now seeing third-quarter earnings seeking off, upsetting some of those concerns about the china-u.s. trade tensions. are seeing upside with the major indices now gaining more thanpositive results out of john and johnson and united health. a big upside for the british pound. sterling at the moment gaining and surpassing that 200-day moving average. twoad reports coming from eu officials that negotiators were making progress in brussels right now, and there could be a draft brexit deal that could come out by the end of the day on tuesday. amanda: some good news there. as we have heard, less good news from the imf, we have the global growth forecast.
this 3% target is the lowest in a decade. earlier today, tom keene spoke about what that means for a potential global recession. this is the lowest since the global financial crisis, the 3% number. it's a combination of factors including trade tensions but some country specific factors in emerging and developing economies. to get to a position where we have more countries in a recession like environment, that is when global growth goes below 2.5%. we certainly don't have that in our projection. amanda: meanwhile, jpmorgan chief jamie dimon said on today's earnings call that "of course" a recession is ahead, we just don't know how soon. into bank deeper earnings season, a mixed report from the biggest banks. we mentioned the jpmorgan. also on deck, goldman sachs,
citigroup, wells fargo all reporting. with more analysis is our senior bank analyst allison williams. are reminded of come every quarter, big banks have become very different. the complement of their earnings makeup is different. what are some of the crosscurrents that suggest similarities between what they are saying about the overall economy? some country specific factors in emerging and developing economies. terms of the overall economy, the comments that you showed from jpmorgan, that is generally the feeling among investors. we know a recession is coming, we are not sure when. the big question remains interest rates and the driver there, geopolitical risks are key to asset prices and interest rate environment. those are the two key risks for banks. the differentiation in the quarter is who able to offset those headwinds, and who is having to fight harder.
jpmorgan gaining market share, also lowering their cost estimates, so those are positives. citigroup, costs coming in in-line to a little above. on the conference call, they made people feel better, it seems. this year, 2020 remains a question. investors are increasingly skeptical, management is not really commenting on that front. concern is the really around banking is coming in lower than expected. i would not make too much about one quarter. the other line for them is the investing line. when they get a big surprise, nobody seems to give them credit because it could be not occurring -- nonrecurring. fargo, they had a big $1.6 billion litigation charge. we actually view that as positive because it's a sign
they are getting the issues behind them ahead of the incoming ceo. they also make people feel a little bit better about their net interest income guidance on their call. shery: concerns over the banking , givenem to be a given that we have seen the past few months disappointment in the ipo market, not to mention cross-border dealmaking. we have, however, jpmorgan came in better than expected on equity, debt. all the banks talk about gaining share within specific areas. jpmorgan delivering on those unaware as there is a bit of a shortfall at goldman. from the debt underwriting side, they have different businesses, so that's part of the reason. to your point, where we are worried next year is the ipo market. also we feel a lot of the strength we are seeing -- some of the strength we are seeing in the third-quarter are pulling
forward, potential refinancing volume for next year. had ahough jpmorgan has healthy pipeline, golden week her, net-net, we think outlook is little more negative on the margin for 2020. amanda: one of the fears is consumer remains strong, business confidence is the tricky part, and trade will become this wildcard. would you swap at one thing for another? are there some that are better positioned for that context, and maybe goldman sachs suffers from this global uncertainty? a lot of analysts will look at the exposures here, and you might say citigroup earns relatively less from interest , less than the u.s. than other banks. however, they are the most global, so perhaps could have more exposure. to the extent people worry about emerging markets or the global side of things, citigroup tends
to be the one that is more exposed there. we are speaking fundamentally, because we don't pick stocks. , less than the u.s. than other banks. but from the overall perspective , i would go back to my original point, with a lot of the uncertainty, who has the best levers to pull in terms of mitigating those. that is why you look to somebody like jpmorgan. if you are going to look at specifically who is exposed to commercial banking, that is more of a conversation with our regional bank analyst. shery: thank you so much for that, alison williams. a bold gold atg that. the toronto management company agreed to buy a gold asset management business for $50 million. for where on where he sees the opportunities is the ceo peter grosskopf. a lot of gold puns there.
today we have seen gold under pressure, given that we have a risk on mood. not surprising given the rally we have seen this year. what will try the next leg not surprising, gold at the end of the day is an insurance asset. when people are worried, it becomes accumulated. in the past two weeks, the markets have been more risk on. i think we expected to see a pullback. long-term, we see lots of trouble ahead. as other commentators were saying, possible recession, 10 years into the bull market, negative interest rate environment, would suggest lots of problems servicing that debt and having economies that are growing quickly. one of the longer-term factors to own gold, peter, has been a hedge againstfor where oe inflation, a store of value. does it become a pure volatility play, contrary and play to hedge
against other assets? peter: i don't think just a contrary and play. we do think it was underutilized in the past and there is a growing crowd of institutions holding it as a hedge against volatility and negative market developments. it is much more broadly being accumulated than in the past. also the gold sector has been in the liquidity situation for 10 years, so there is lots of stock pick to among the equities as well. have seen elevated levels of etf holdings, tactical holdings. what about retail investors? recently swung into net inflows, so retail is coming back, but the numbers are not significant yet. compared to 10 years ago, this is a sector that is still very unfollowed by retail. amanda: what do you favor when you think of the majors? we have seen consolidation.
we know the easy gold on the planet has already been mined. where are you looking for value? the index is so strong within the sector, so the majors enjoy a fairly high competitive cost to capital. where we see the bargains is among the growing companies. those companies are still dreadfully under owned. there is a lot of undervalued opportunity. we think there is lots of opportunities to see ketchup with a big companies. shery: we have seen index is sog within the sector, so the gold suffering versus other currencies coming given its high storage cost and so forth. will we see a ketchup now that we have new digitization, technology like blockchain? peter: i think so. gold will be used more as a payment system, value. it will become more competitive as a currency. also compared to its number one competitor, which is still is lookingnds, gold
a lot more attractive than it did a couple years ago with negative rates on assets. amanda: one of the seismic changes in our lives was the central bank ownership of gold, big shift in the thinking. do you expect any major shift like that to happen, the back toward it, or the part of anybody else, maybe blockchain, store of value that need something to back it up? peter: i think gold will more effectively take on cryptocurrencies going forward. the next major move in gold will be as a payment currency. as it become digitized, it will give every day households a chance to use it within their budget to not only serve as a gold account store ofbudget valt also to pay for goods and services. amanda: thank you for being with us, peter. peter grosskopf is the chief
shery: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm shery ahn in new york. amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. down to the wire. days away from the federal election, and the conservative leader andrew scheer is now in a dead heat with justin trudeau. evan solomon is with us now for the latest on this week's candidate account down. of course, we have seen this dead heat going on. anything surprising about what you're seeing in the numbers are what is grabbing attention in
the final days? rodeo,da, it is a goat nobody can figure out what the election is about, there is no path for a majority. what is surprising, what nobody saw coming was the rise of a nationalist separatist party in quebec. they had 10 seats out of 338. they could double or triple that. that would stop a trudeau majority government. also a rise of the ndp factor that nobody really saw. we could be in for minority government territory here. the biggest winner out of the election could be the smaller parties. evan: that is why what you're seeing in the final week is what we call project fear. if you vote for them, the other guy will get in.
the math in canada is fundamental. you have four parties that can make a difference, the conservatives, the liberals, the ndp, and then the separatist quebec party. if you vote for the ndp or the block, you'll get conservatives. now it is fear and loathing on the canadian campaign trail. in canada of course at the electoral college in the u.s. and say what a weird system, but we have a weird system, too, and then the most popular person doesn't always become the leader. in this case, the vote splitting seems to be on the left. when we talk about how tight the race could be, is there a scenario where the splitting of the left actually sends the conservatives a majority government? evan: 100%. conservatives love the vote split. you have the progressive coalition that put justin trudeau into power in 2015.
they thought there was no chance for the ndp, they abandoned them, and the separatist party were dead. all those votes went to justin trudeau. 2019, totally different. fractured on the left. when the left fractures, usually the conservatives go up. the problem is they have had a glass ceiling, 32%. in canada, you need 39%. at the electoral college in the u.s. and say what a weird that is the road to a majority. that last 5%, nobody seems to be able to get right now. very much up for grabs in the last few days. shery: the prime minister campaigning amid a relatively strong economy in canada. given your history of almost always giving a second mandate to new leaders, what happened? trudeau had astin good economy, and you might think a good economy for the convent is great. -- incumbent is great. the problem for trudeau, his
bread overtook his party's brand. he became parlous he incarnate. when his brand started to follow are genuine issues of trust, ethics violations, over some scandals, he was unable to separate the good that the liberal party had done for the economy -- 1.2 million jobs, lowest employment in 40 years, poverty.eople out of that got drowned out because the election became about justin trudeau. when the election is about you, you are toast. shery: evan solomon, thank you so much. coming up, google's answer to the iphone. how the company plans to take on apple and smart -- samsung's smartphone dominance. we will have the latest from their product launch. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets." i'm amanda lang in toronto. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. out a newrolling bundle of products today in new york, showing how it plans to take on apple and samsung. the new pixel phones it future more memory, new cameras, and increased ai technology, but will it be enough to entice consumers? our technology reporter is at the event with the story. how did the pixel 4 look so far? >> the phone looks cool, they have an interesting origin version which some people have been calling the hipster version of the new iphone. more exciting than those high-end phones, at least what it looks like. the phone is a little bit cheaper than the latest high-end iphone, but we still have this issue with high quality android phones. if somebody is willing to spend $1000 for a phone, most of those
people, regardless of where they are in the world, are still opting for an iphone. we will see if google can get out of this slump in terms of selling these phones. amanda: hardware is not google's core business, so in terms of the strategy of getting into hardware, does it feel like it is working so far? >> google's hardware strategy -- it is still all about software. they want their products to showcase what they can do with software. android operating systems are in most phones in the world, but they don't control it, and android does not always show up in the way the google wanted to. phones, you can really see the software the way it's intended. what they are trying to do is build an ecosystem of devices where you have the phone, you may have their home speaker, you may have a nest thermostat or doorbell owned by google, and it all talks to one another.
theirrse, amazon with alexa products are well ahead in that game, and apple is also pushing. shery: talking about hardware, they went back to the basics when it comes to that laptop. >> they have a new laptop out, a bunch of updates on that front. again, sort of middle of the range, affordable, called the pixel book. another thing is they brought out there pixel buds, although they are not quite available. those are the earphones, the competitor to the apple airpod. we will see when they come out, how they will do. amanda: in terms of the buzz factor, what is the thing that is generating the most excitement in the room? i think the problem with this event in terms of buzz is that all the details had essentially been leaked already.
there was almost nothing that was new, maybe the color of that new phone. people have been talking about this phone for a while but it is nice to be able to see it in person and touch it. there are tons of journalists here, reviewers from around the world. google has really started to spend money on these events, so i think you will see a fair amount of buzz in the tech press today. amanda: great to have your input on this. appreciate it. just a reminder, you can interact with all of the charts you see on tv using the function gtv . from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
budget director to testify next week about the withholding of military assistance to ukraine and possible records to cover up those actions. the house is investigating whether president trump order to the aid to be withheld to pressure ukraine to investigate joe biden and his son hunter. it is a sign of how far apart the united states and china are on trade. despite the handshake deal, bloomberg has learned that beijing will struggle to buy $50 billion worth of u.s. farm goods unless it removes retaliatory tariffs from american-made products, and that won't happen unless president trump removes tariffs from chinese phonics for the at least 85 people have been killed and nearly 100 wounded in election-related violence in afghanistan. the united nations says the attacks are coming mainly from the taliban. afghans voted last month despite militant threats and violence. there was widespread misconduct and accu