tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg October 25, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
david westin and welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. kevin cirilli from the white house, the doj going criminal. emma chandra from london on another hiccup in the march to brexit. news, a short time ago. they are making progress. maybe an agreement down in chile? >> absolutely. in the last hour or so, we got word from the u.s. trade representative office, bob lighthizer, steven mnuchin got on the phone this morning with vice premier in beijing. they continued their discussions about the phase one deal president trump to sign down at the apec summit in chile. interesting language coming out
of the office, saying they are making headway on areas and are close to finalizing some sections of the deal. if you remember back to the announcement a few weeks ago by the president when he had him in the oval office, they made the point that they still need to hash out details and get it in writing. sounds like they are getting their. david: who are the good cops and the bad cops? yesterday we heard from mike pence. he seemed the bad cop. the nba and hong kong and things like that. beijing said, you have problems in your own country. now we have bob lighthizer, usually a hard-nosed, and he is making the nice noises. >> who is good and bad depends on what line you look at it through. i will stay away from that one. the trade relationship is one of the few that seems to be working now between u.s. and china.
broadly, the relationship seems to be deteriorating. tough language from mike pence yesterday. president trump clearly wants this deal. one of the questions to look for is what comes out of the congress on hong kong. if there is a bill there that would potentially threaten hong kong's special trade status it enjoys with the u.s., that could upset the chinese and upset the deal. whether that comes before the apec summit and the signing of the phase one deal or afterwards and whether president trump chooses to sign it if the bill turns into law, again that is another provocative move potentially. a lot going on on the trade side, one of the few positive notes. david: important point. to what extent there may be a third player in this, congress, could they derail a deal with things like the modification of
hong kong trade? >> there's a big push by senator marco rubio on the issue of financial decoupling, something that the white house is considering. there are broader sanctions issues related to the chinese crackdown on ethnic minorities in the far western territory where as many as one million people have been detained in camps. there is definitely a mood in china, here in washington that favors the china hawks. if you think back to the speech by mike pence, he lambasted the nba for cozying up to china, saying the league was acting like a wholly-owned subsidiary of an authoritarian government. that is in opposition to the positive noise we hear on trade. it is fragile. david: fragile frederick. president trump on his way out
of town. china wants a trade deal badly, saying. we will see if that comes to fruition. many thanks. kevin cirilli at the white house. big news overnight, grand jury convened in the investigation of possible spying on the trump campaign. kevin: william barr reportedly opening a criminal inquiry investigation into origins of all investigations into the trump campaign, predating years now at a time when president trump has said consistently he would like to see doj look into that. attorney general now taking his cues from the president. democrats pushed back forcefully saying the doj has been politicized facing the impeachment inquiry. republicans are praiseworthy. meadows who has
come out on twitter saying, if this is true, it is about time. all of this following the heightened saga that has gone on all week with the hearings on capitol hill and another impeachment inquiry hearing set for tomorrow. the investigation continues on capitol hill, still behind closed doors. david: seems like everyone is lowering up. -- lawyering up. barr convening the grand jury or the u.s. attorney district of connecticut, john durham. supposedly this was delegated to john durham. is this his boss, the attorney general, saying i want you to have a grand jury? kevin: we don't know. democrats are raising the question, it would be the attorney general is delegating this, putting pressure on various others to look into it. republicans are saying this is
precisely the work that should be going on and that if hillary clinton have been president, none of these investigations would have continued. the back-and-forth continues. looking at this outside of washington perspective, this is going to provide an effort on behalf of the president to be able to counter the impeachment inquiry. it balances it out from the conservative viewpoint. david: sort of like a backfire. great point. thanks. . kevin cirilli at the white house. , tanda and london. i thought i had seen it all. the pound is being affected by emmanuel macron and what france thinks about an extension. emma: brexit uncertainty returns. the pound falling against the dollar today heading to a weekly decline, the largest since the end of september. this is all about brexit uncertainty. coming from the eu. the eu has agreed in principle
to extension but has deferred decision on how long that should be. all remaining 27 countries need to agree on a date. a meeting of ambassadors, 26 in agreement. three months to the end of january, giving the u.k. time to hold a general election and ratify the brexit deal boris johnson agreed with the eu about one week ago. there is one holdout. france wants a shorter extension of one month or less to the end of november to pressure u.k. parliament to accept the deal boris johnson agreed with the eu. they are now saying they are not going to make a decision on the length of extension until tuesday. david: emmanuel macron apparently does have power. i understand it was unanimous. does he sort of have a point?
emma: you could make that argument. more time has not helped so far. by having more time, you had to go back and reopen the withdrawal agreement, renegotiate the deal and perhaps another long extension, which would include a general election, you may have to go back to the drawing board and renegotiate again, particularly if the conservatives lose the general election. the prime minister plans to ask parliament again on monday if he can have the early general election. because of the fixed term parliament act in the u.k., he needs two thirds of mp's to agree to a general election. boris johnson and his government does not command a majority in parliament. the labour party saying they will not agree to a general election until the risk of no deal is taken off the table. they want to know how long the extension from the eu will be,
perhaps suggesting we are going around in circles. david: maybe. craig reporting, -- great reporting ,e mma. thanks to emma chandra in london. markets flirting, abigail doolittle, with the record. abigail: pretty exciting stuff. we have been waiting for for a long time, above the 3000 range. not long ago, we would have been on pace for the record high. now we are shy. you're asking about the why. there are not clear catalysts. halfway through earning seasons, investment traders thinking earnings are good enough. not bad. corporate profit outlook contact. the macro, it is not that bad either. week, mostnext expect them to lower. that could be a factor. positive trait headlines. david: we have the fed meeting next week.
everyone expects them to cut. how much of the valuation plays into the s&p or nasdaq or dow is really supported by the fed and the expectation of further cuts? given to behas priced in. the fed is needed if things go awry from macro standpoint, they will get more aggressive. this cut is probably priced in. i do not think that has so much to do with the record highs. it creates more of a constructive backdrop as opposed to a catalyst. the bigger surprise is if they do not cut next week for some reason. unlikely. at this point, there on cruise control of cutting, giving investors confidence against macro uncertainties. david: gives us a reason to watch the market through the end of the day. possibly a record. abigail: exciting. david: mark crumpton the first
word news. mark: u.s. and china negotiations progress, mexican officials believe usmca trade deal could be approved in weeks and implemented within three months. -- the mexicor undersecretary made the comments today. he says mexico has carried out a lobbying campaign in the u.s. and canada to pass the trade deal. vehiclesn troops and to help protect oil fields in northeastern syria. wantssper says the u.s. to make sure isis do not get access to oil. the oil fields are controlled by syrian kurds right now. last week president trump insisted all u.s. troops would leave syria. joe biden's confident he is the front runner in the campaign to be the democratic nominee. he may be short on cash.
federal election commission filings recently show the former vice president with less than $9 million on hand, the smallest cash reserve among the top five polling candidates in the race. elizabeth warren's campaign has $26 million in the bank. bernie sanders has nearly $34 million in the bank. japan's economy minister has stepped down after being appointed to the role last month. he resigned after allegations his secretary gave $185 in condolence money to support his family and made other inappropriate offerings to followers. japanese law prohibits these donations, which can be seen as a form of buying and influence peddling. this is the first member of the prime minister's cabinet to leave. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg.
>> judiciary looking at potential impeachable offense, they created a process, the intel committee behind closed doors, doesn't provide access to the president's accuser, shuts republicans out for all practical purposes and is an unworthy substitute for the way you need to do it. david: lindsey graham condemning
the impeachment inquiry. democrats continue to fight it out on the campaign trail. there for the remarks yesterday. is he gaining traction in his claim that this is not fair to the president because president clinton and president nixon were handled differently? >> is gaining traction amongst senate republicans, very comfortable attacking house democrats. they want the house to take a formal vote to open the inquiry. they want the republican minority to have subpoena power, which would be a departure from precedent. house democrats say they are following the rules that were laid out by republicans in 2015 in terms of a committee chairman being able to subpoena witnesses and bring them in for deposition without about. that is where we are. -- without a vote.
that is where we are at this point. it is an easier way to talk about the inquiry and stay on the same page as president trump without having to defend his actions. many are very uncomfortable as regards his actions with ukraine. david: there is a race on the democratic side. you have a piece out right now on the very different routes joe biden and elizabeth warren are taking to get the same voters. >> joe biden is privately pitching democrats on the idea he can re-create the obama coalition from 2012, the same voters that put him in the white house, and hold onto the voters in 2018. suburban, upscale, affluent voters who supported republicans in previous elections but voted democrat, 2018, because they are disillusioned with president trump. elizabeth lawrence pitch is
different. -- elizabeth warren's pitch is different. she says expanding the safety net will connect with pocketbook issues and re-create the map. in other words, inspire voters who do not ordinarily vote but are attracted to her message of taking on corruption and flipping the table on the ways politics work. david: we turn now to our political analyst, political science professor at iona college in new york and the spokesman for the heritage foundation. genevieve, let's start with you. two different routes. elizabeth warren may be going more directly at president trump's message, pages affectation with the establishment. you have been treated badly. would this be a more difficult challenge for president trump? >> she is a new challenge for the president. she reaches a different audience
than joe biden. the idea that he will re-create the obama lineup, that was the plan for hillary. it did not work out. obama was able to bring coalition voters together but i don't know that another candidate can do the same thing. joe biden in particular. elizabeth warren has a new strategy. david: great point. can vice president biden really get the nomination by saying you want a third obama term? that is what it sounds like on the debate stage. >> the problem for joe biden is that may have worked in 2016. i am skeptical about it now. the energy of the democratic party has changed. it is much more progressive, much more liberal. he is claiming he can keep that coalition together. i am not sure he can re-create it or keep it together. i think for the president, he
would have a tougher time running against elizabeth warren or someone who he has not found his footing in terms of running against. david: does joe biden have a money problem? >> i think he does. look. we are seeing these national polls. we have seen reporting. look at the beginning of the race. iowa, the caucuses, he is way down in the polls, number 3, 4 behind warren, buttigieg, bernie sanders. he has a money and an early state problem. david: to that point, but one person who seems to not have a problem is pete buttigieg. >> he is doing well. iowa ground game is impressive. latest pull out of iowa state has him second to elizabeth warren, moving up. these are big gains. everyone in iowa, you know you have to have a ground game and early. he seems to be peaking at the
right point. we are still a few months out. he is running, as are amy klobuchar and others to sorta be joe biden's understudy. should he lose traction, they want to be there to move up the middle. that is what we heard in the last debate taking on elizabeth warren, how are you going to pay for medicare for all and carry out these big plans? david: next, we talk about impeachment. this is "balance of power," on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
they do it like they have done before? >> nancy pelosi does not want to force members to have to go on the record. she has made the case. i agree that she is running this thing beautifully. weak ground in terms of talking about process. the president can defend himself should he get that far. the insurgence of republicans, 1 /3 of them have the right to be in the room. this is more political show. on substance, they have a real challenge on their hands. david: whatever claim they have on process, they do not seem to be willing to argue substance. no one is saying, the president didn't do it or it was wrong. >> i hear republicans standing
up and outside congress saying they may not care for his style but they don't think what he did was impeachable. we were talking about senators focusing on process. they may. at the end of the day, impeachment is a political process. it is not great they are doing it behind closed doors. if you have the goods, bring them out and show everyone. everyone washington loves to talk about transparency. very few people do it. they ought to. it is up to them. democrats are in charge of the house. the house is where impeachment happens. it does not happen in a courtroom. there is not a set of rules they have to follow. the people who ultimately decide our voters. if they think it was fair, did they have the goods? david: i want to get this clear. are you saying the reports are wrong and that people in the administration believe the president was withholding things
from ukraine to get an investigation, or are you saying that that never happened or that that was ok? >> i cannot speak for every republican. many people speaking out may say, i wish the president would not conduct the phone calls as he has not but we do not think these are impeachable offenses. i have not heard anyone on the republican side saying the fact that the president brought up investigations about -- i have no one saying that is impeachable. david: thank you so much. this is "balance of power," on bloomberg television and radio. ♪ devices are like doorways
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are close to finishing some sections of their phase one of the trade agreement. that's according to a statement from u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer and treasury secretary steven mnuchin and. they held a phone call with the chinese fight premier and said discussions will continue at the deputy level. peter navarro tells fox news, phase one could be signed as soon as next month. california's biggest utility admitted its electrical equipment may have ignited a wildfire burning in one country today. that is despite lack of being imposed across the region to prevent such blazes. pg&e had a power line failure in sonoma county moment before a wild fire broke out. it burned at least 25 square miles and prompted evacuation orders or about 2000 people. a federal judge has held education secretary betsy devos in contempt of court because she violated in order to stop collecting federal loans from
thousands of former students who attended corinthian colleges, a for-profit school change shutdown in 2015 as it faced allegations of fraud. macronpresident emmanuel has blocked the european union's attempt to delay brexit for three more months. that means it's possible u.k. may not know if it will get an extension until just hours before it is said to be ejected. president macron was to grant a delay until november 30 or even sooner. the goal is to put pressure on the british parliament to approve boris johnson's deal. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you so much. the u.s.-china trade dispute has dominated business headlines throughout president trump's administration, but other fundamental differences have been just below the surface. vice president mike pence
brought them to the fore in a speech yesterday. >> hong kong is a living example of what can happen when china , forces liberty, and yet the last few years, beijing has increased its interventions in hong kong, engaged in actions to curtail the rights and liberties of its people. us through where we stand with china, we welcome ambassador max baucus. a member of the u.s. senate for 36 years. he comes to us on the telephone. thank you for joining us. we heard mike pence. the chinese government responded overnight and said you should take care of your own house, raising questions of race relations and inequality. is this just part of a diplomacy game, or are there bad feelings between the two countries? max: first of all, both countries want to wind down the
trade tensions and the tariffs between each other because it is hurting both countries. that is basically what is happening. both companies are trying to find to save a way to do so. it is regrettable that the vice president try to link hong kong with the trade talks. they should not be linked. entirely separate. although we americans should stand up for the human rights and dignity of people around the world, it is dangerous to be too critical of china with respect to hong kong. that's a separate issue. i'm hoping we get an interim deal. i'm hoping there will be some intellectual property provisions within it. of course, the proof is in the pudding. when president xi and president , that may be chile a way to get to that are working together. david: you say it's regrettable.
you have operated in the government at the highest levels. you are not a part of this, but what was the thinking do you think behind vice president pence? the u.s. has had a long tradition of human rights around the world, but right now with china, right as we are trying to , whatis trade deal done is the constituency he is addressing? max: one can only speculate. this could be part of the trump m.o. hit your opponent, knock them off balance, and then come back and get a deal. i don't think it is a good tactic. it may work in the commercial real estate business but not when you are trying to negotiate politically with another country. is the only thing i can think of, that trump told him to do so. david: in the same speech, he referred to the nba as a
wholly-owned subsidiary of the chinese government because of that reaction that came from one of the general managers. if you are advising the u.s. company doing business in china, how would you advise them? they certainly have strong views about things like hong kong. ails,u trim your sales -- s how do you do business in china these days? max: you have to thread the needle, it's difficult. more american businesses are outspoken about human rights in hong kong, the more the chinese will prevent you from operating in that country. on the other hand, we have to speak out for human dignity generally. like a lot of things, it is not only what you do but how you do it. show is a good tone to respect when you are talking about human rights. david: in washington, there is a tradingot to change the
status with hong kong because it was based on the notion that it was separate, a much more free relationship. i understand the legislators are behind this. if beijing is going to run hong kong, they should not a special trading. how would you react if you are still in the u.s. senate? max: i think it is a mistake to withdraw special status. there are some provisions in that bill which say we will take away not only trading rights what -- but will begin to sanction people in china, if we don't like how china is treating hong kong. it is a mistake, a separate issue. we should work on the trade deal and not try to take away this so-called special advantage. this will hurt hong kong more than china. i don't think we want to do that at this point. hong kong is in a real hurt.
rent is soso high, high. wages do not keep up. on top of the political pressures they are facing. basically, hong kongers are worried about their future. of hong the promise kong has been suppressed and diminished. if we are trying to take away special status, that would hurt them. me turn to something closer to home, the impeachment inquiry going on. a foregoneto be conclusion, president trump says he expects articles of impeachment. at the same time, many say it is unlikely for the senate to vote to convict, that is to say the president removed from office. as somebody who would have been a juror if there would have been articles of impeachment, are the democrats giving the republicans a gift? i think the democrats are
going about this in a great way. the hearings are private not republicans are able to participate in the hearings. then there will be open hearings. during the watergate and nixon era, people had a better idea of whether or not the president should be impeached. i think he will be impeached. how the senate reacts, whether they convict depends very much on what develops which is adverse to the president. a lot is going to come out here, i think, and that could have a bearing on the senate's physician. david: good point, we don't know what more may be revealed, but based on what we think we know, and president, according to his own conversations with president zelinski said, i want you to
investigate president biden and his son. apparently, the administration believed certain benefits for ukraine were being withheld because of that. do you think that is a high crime and misdemeanor and worthy of conviction? max: the impeachment proceeding and the senate trial is probably than it iscal criminal. , given, by my judgment all i have seen from this president, how he is hurting theica, not only damaging u.s. at home and around the to my point of view, the chinese would like to see trump reelected because he is weak. to developing china on trade and other parts of the world where trump has retreated from. added altogether, looking at the
evidence, he probably should be removed from office. david: appreciate your time, as always. former u.s. senator and ambassador to china, the bachus. coming up, he runs the u.s. arm of one of the largest private banks in taiwan. we speak with noor menai of ctbc bank. we will talk about bridging the gap between china and the u.s. through taiwan. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
experience at jpmorgan, citibank, and charles schwab. welcome, good to have you. as the head you do of the u.s. arm of ctbc, a taiwanese bank. a verys you say, we are large taiwanese bank, largest private bank, most profitable taiwanese bank. we have been in the united states for 30 years, we have a north american presence. we have a community bank that may run in new york and california. we do commercial real estate, commercial and industrial lending, small businesses, manufacturers, importers, exporters, and we also have a strong retail presence. we do mortgages, and sumer products. we also have a foreign branch here in new york where we service as our customers grow from -- as they come in.
wey grow up in the nursery, take them to our new york brand, and then we can help them grow with the full resources of the parent bank. david: how much are your business is tied to china? chinese nationals, people with chinese origin? noor: we are pretty well diversified. we serve as one of the primary areas, if there is investment coming in from greater china, we are well-positioned. about one third of our business comes in from the greater china area, taiwan, hong kong, mainland china, and an obviously, japan, korea, indonesia. we are in each one of these pacific rim countries. supply chain is our specialty. cross-border is our specialty. if you are a medium-size manufacturing in the u.s. looking to import or export to asia, you come to us because we are local in each of the countries that you may be
looking to source your supply chains. david: you do trade finance, imports, exports, foreign direct investment. have you seen that drop off because of the tension between the u.s. and china over trade? noor: at the higher and we are following the market. in luxury real estate, for example, in the larger projects from some of the larger state backed organizations, we do see some pullback. on the consumer side, though, we see no fall in demand. on the individual or the middle market companies. that enthusiasm for investing in what is the most dynamic economy in the world right now, the united states, we have not seen a falloff in that. david: we are talking with noor menai, the head of the u.s. branch of ctbc. areou look at it, there various rumors and even attempts to curtail some cross investment.
for example, an initiative in the congress to cut back on u.s. investment in chinese banks. some reports that the administration may be considering curtailing the integration of some of the capital markets. are those realistic threats? noor: the economies are so intertwined that the customer levels. banks and financial institutions will follow their customers. as you say, we have been through the large institutions, and now at ctbc, a large player in that part of the world. we see there are many ways to skin the cat, service our customers. i am not as despond and about the decoupling of that. mike penceeard from in washington yesterday, and he said something that china certainly were not happy with, but part of what he said was that he does not want a decoupling of the economies. >> people sometimes ask whether the trump administration 62 the
couple from china. rebuilding --a resounding no. united states seeks engagement with china. and china's engagement with the wider world. at hisdo you take him word, is it consistent with what the administration is seeking right now? noor: i do take him at his word, and these are encouraging words. intertwine mint between the global trade, those are encouraging words. as for actions, there needs to be more consideration given to is trade war that is going on. i think the feeling from asia, especially from china, if you could be a little clearer about because these- are folks that are very used to
settling trade disputes, deals. if there was a clear roadmap, we would see more progress. david: you are a bank. banks are regulated around the world. dealingwanese bank along with china, you are the u.s. arm, who regulates you? u.s. regulators? -- you subject to tiny's chinese, taiwanese regulators? noor: we are regulated by the fsc in taiwan. in the u.s., the usual mix of the fdic as the primary regulator, the federal reserve looks after our holdings. in california, we have a state regulator. in new york, we have a state regulator. we have great relationships with our regulators. david: certainly sounds like an abundance. thank you for being here, noor menai, ceo of ctbc bank. this is "balance of power" on
david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm david westin. it is time for the stock of the hour. pg&e has fallen to a new record low, the stock plunging more than 25% today as wildfires raging california. kailey leinz is here. not just wildfires, but it may be because of the equipment. proven butis not five minutes before this fire burned in california, one of their transmission lines failed. david: the last time that happened, it didn't work out so well. kailey: in the market opinion, they are sort of guilty until proven innocent. blamedve already been for wildfires in 2017, 2018, facing $30 billion in liabilities because of those. anymore than they could be facing as a result of this fire is bad news. conducting has been
wide-ranging blackouts across california to avoid is very thing and it happens anyway. it throws their bankruptcy into question. atid: they are in bankruptcy the same time. who is buying this stock at the same point? kailey: shareholders hope that they will be able to exit chapter 11 bankruptcy. will get toan, they retain some of their ownership, but a judge stripped pg&e over exclusive control. bondholders can now have a rival plan. the $15 billion in equity commitments that pg&e has gotten for their plan can go away, should they have more aggressive liabilities from the wildfires like brca 2. it kind of throws a wrench into the whole thing, which means the equity value could go to zero. david: seems like a possibility. thank you. the country tof
another, in east rutherford, new jersey, the american dream megamall opens up today after 17 years. our real estate reporter joins us. 17 years and a lot of money. >> $5 billion by most estimates. a lot of people have seen this under development in various stages for years. rink open, just the ice and the nickelodeon theme park. but the fact that it is open is surprising to a lot of people. david: one people -- one thing people are asking, 17 years ago, this may have been a good idea. how about today? >> already some tenants are filing for bankruptcy. we will not see the retail portion of this month until next year. but the bet is that they will come to see the attractions and will be braving the traffic. giants,certs, the jets, that is a hard place to get in
and out of. there were problems at the port authority this morning with passengers upset that their gates were changed. david: in fairness, the people we have doneay, this before and people that we were crazy, and it worked out really well. we think we are right and everybody else is wrong. >> the canadian family, a canadian billionaires. they are saying we have done eres twice before, th were skeptics at that time. they put those other two malls up as collateral to get this one done, so they have a lot riding on this. david: i'm told it is in bergen county, which is relevant. they have a law which means you cannot sell anything on sunday. isn't that a problem? >> i am a native of bergen county. the roads are quite as you go to
game, butgo to the malls cannot sell on retail. will still bes open, the ice rink will be open. you can go and do the fun things that they are talking about but not shop. david: we have had some reports that new yorkers are upset because they had to redo the buses. yorkers andwith new their commute, that will not go over well. but there is a big question about how people will get out there. they are not doing an extra train. whether tourists want to do this is a big question. david: if it is a mall, one thing, but it is a theme park, it could be another. >> 55% of this is entertainment. maybe we are too fixated on the retail. maybe there are families that want to see the ice rink, the theme park, ski slope. that is the bet that developers
are making, that this is what people want. do they want to shop at the gap? maybe not, but they want to see these roller coasters. david: and ski in the middle of summer. >> that has been the peace event that has been on the side of the highway for years. there will be a lot of people that go to see the novelty of this. david: thank you. coming up, balance of power continues on bloomberg radio. we will be talking with the former u.s. assistant to attorney general's in new york. withy, we will be speaking you of the eurasia group. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders
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jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, investors shaking up weak data, hoping to resolve lingering macro issues, as broader credit for zane's more cracks are showing in leverage loans. looking for clues beyond the next rate cut. we begin with the big issue. debating whether we have seen the worst of it. >> the u.s. is in a good spot. >> manufacturing is weak globally. >>