tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg October 30, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
headquarters in new york, i am david westin. the fed decision out this afternoon from washington. jenny leonard on prospects for trade deal. from the white house, kevin how the impeachment is brewing down there. what are you expecting? is trying to potentially wind down the cycle easing. i don't think they will go for a hard stop. they learned their lesson in quarter four of last year. they tried to sound a little bit hawkish in the market continued to swoon as that. there is a belief that maybe they won't need to do more than three rate cuts this time around. just to put some numbers around that. cycles, two maintenance in 96 when they called it quits, payrolls were 224000
and that month. 1998, gdp growth was 6.6% and payrolls were about 200 and 81,000. growth not even 2%. around 135 atng best. they will linger the possibility of additional easing. i think that will, the december meetings. david: that explains why there wouldn't be a hard stop. you look the other way around, there is not a real reason to encourage more cuts either. >> they want to maintain the optionality around that decision. if we are in a slowing global growth environment and also u.s. economic growth will top expectations, it is still decelerating relative to the first half of the year. they will likely need to take
out additional insurance. as we see a hot streak in the data, we might be able to push that into the first part of next year. given the number i have laid out for you on where we are on gdp, payrolls, friday's payroll report will not be particularly pretty. that will encourage the fed to provide a little more accommodation. the fed doesn't want to be stuck if we happen to tip into recession. david: we may need some more insurance before we are done here. he is bloomberg's chief economic stte. he will be back at the fed eastern.t 2:00 chile has canceled that aipac meeting, where does that stand? was a surprising move. the protests have been going on for quite a while. we are trying to find out if the
two teams have come up with a plan b. we know they have been on the phone and in touch over the past couple weeks basically every single day. we could presume they talked about some kind of plan b. the white house said it is looking into it. meat unclear if they can ea the timeline if they are starting from scratch on the logistics. we are waiting to hear back from the white house on if they have a plan b. david: that is the u.s.-china trade situation. a remarkable report yesterday about possibly some amendments to some legislation to nafta that could give the president more authority over auto production. what was that? lookinghis report was at discussions that are going on between u.s. pr staff and congressional staff, auto companies. that are separate from what is
going on with ambassador lighthizer and house democrats trying to fix the agreement and some of the changes the democrats have put forward. my report was looking at the actual implementing legislation that lawmakers vote on. the whiteds right now house is proposing that language and basically a blank check to administer the production rules for global auto companies. giving them a lot of authority to say i want you to put this plan here or you will pressure them into making investments. on that front congress and the white house are very far apart. that tells us that even if pelosi had lighthizer get a political solution it still needs to be fixed. they are not there yet. david: thank you so much. even as we were talking a headline cross the bloomberg and said the white house says there
is no secondary site for that at the moment. now i want to turn to kevin cirilli the white house. we have a big vote tomorrow, on thursday by the house on whether they will officially go forward with impeachment. they are still taking testimony up there? kevin: two career foreign service officers set to testify today. christopher anderson and catherine croft. they have worked at the state department and reportedly are set to continue with this wasimony that rudy giuliani an optical of sort standing in the way of how the state department was able to work on u.s.-ukraine relations. closed-door testimony. it comes on the eve of the first vote in the house of representatives put forth by a speaker of the house nancy pelosi. it is the first step in the procedure to move along this
impeachment inquiry. republicans, president trump, they have criticized democrats in the house for not owning precisely what they are doing. i'm told by sources on both sides that tomorrow's vote is really a formality of sorts to kickstart the impeachment inquiry. some rules ande guidelines that say if it goes forward, president trump or his lawyers can be present for future opening hearings? kevin: absolutely. in fact, when you look at the dynamics, they have been quite tepid in engaging the procedural hurdles. they said they want to wait to see what happens. i spoke to a source yesterday that said the devil will be in the details. this is a political legislation so to speak. it will set up the entire
process. the white house doesn't have too much to go on. you have to go back to the 1990's to see how that played out. that is where i think tomorrow, some of the floor conversation will very much matter. we will be keeping a close eye on that. let's figure out what is going on with the market. looking at the equity markets right now looks like they may be waiting for the fed. >> i think the markets are definitely waiting for the fed. that is one of the headlines you were just talking about. also, the cancellation of aipac , perhaps ahead of that sum blaming that on the economic data. good news and bad news again and thought thane fed probably those chile headlines.
point having its best day since 2009. on the other hand, ch robinson, worst day since 2008. logistics companies dragging the dow transports. some big movers around earnings. david: this is sort of the week. apple. is it too soon to say if there is any trend at all? >> there could be one trend where we basically have had no truly bad news, no big disasters. at this point it seems investors want profitability again and not just the sales they can get away with. we are seeing that with google, also amazon. it will be interesting to see whether or not that trend continues. made of thoseinds tech ipos that have struggled. we would like to see them profit sooner or later.
>> it can't just be the future and the unicorn ideas. what is happening today keeping it sharpened. kevin: -- david: now we want to turn to mark. chile haverotests in prompted the president to cancel the cooperation summit. president trump and chinese president xi were set to attend the conference and there were reports that the two could sign an interim trade deal. rioters burned stores in central santiago. ambassador -- john sullivan based questions about election interference and removal of the u.s. ambassador to ukraine. sullivan was the official who told marie jovanovich she was
being recalled from her post early. her removal is central to the impeachment inquiry. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says the president is being denied his most basic rights of due process. o'connell criticized the proposed resolution from house democrats that outlines procedures for potential impeachment of the president. it calls for open hearings and requires the intelligence committee to submit a report outlining findings and recommendations. a vote is set for tomorrow. in the u.k., prime minister morse johnson and rival jeremy corbyn squared off for the first time in the general election campaign. yne prime minister said corb would deliver a catastrophe for the economy. said the prime minister would eventually privatize health care. powered by more than 2700 overalists and analysts in
mcintosh, he is coming to us from washington. 2%is also less than targeted, was driving all that? david m.: great to be with you. the driver here is the continuity of the expansion that after 2017 2017 -- tax cuts. 2% growth.t much better than expectations. when you look at the private sector, it was negative growth. it proved from the previous report. there was a couple good messages , consumption continues at a very strong pace. i looked at the housing investment in that sector, that pivoted from a negative to a positive. is stable and within it a
couple very good signs for the continuity and continued growth in the next quarter as well. what that says to the federal reserve i think is they can be cautious about rate cuts. they are not driving by it. the other factor that has been present the last two quarters is the instability in trade. we are seeing some improvement in the negotiations with china. frankly, in washington it is working against the trade where the democrats in the house have made it pretty clear they are all about impeachment and not about passing the usmca as a free-trade agreement in north america. you raise two things, the first is the fed. that would be 75 basis points since they started the cuts, is that enough? david m.: i think that could be
sis -- sufficient. they could signal they would do one more meeting before the next cut if they wanted to see what the reports were. there will be political pressure to cut more and stimulate the economy. report and the other statistics show we are at a nice level playing field. the other problem pivoting is the political uncertainty and the fact that the trade deal can't pass through the house. get to usmca,we let's talk about china. we have chile canceling the aipac. the said go ahead with phase one signing anyway. david m.: i think there has been real momentum there. you will see both china and the trump administration want to move forward. i think it helps. a signal to the economy that there won't be tariff increases.
a lot of businesses saying we have been able to survive so far. the next level of increases would have a big impact on industrial investment and some of the economic factors trending more negatively. there is a good reason to do it. it would have a positive impact. with thet's go ahead usmca, successor to nafta. you think that would not get through congress as long as democrats keep pushing on impeachment? david m.: it is all about impeachment. that is all we are doing. i think we have kind of reached a level where the facts have teetered out. there is no new news. they haven't convinced people that the president should be in peace. radical liberal base. we have to impeach the guy. stuck,elosi is kind of even if she wanted to help with the economy she would suffer political consequences in her own party. some of the people are probably
telling her don't do it, don't help trump get a win or with the economy. sadly for the country they are making politics above what is good for the country. david: david mcintosh coming to us from washington. up next we will have more details on the stock market and how it has fared under various president and what a potential democrat could mean for the market. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg news. have heard this before. what we tried to do with the story is present day gut check and say wait, before you listen to any pundit, any strategist at say the market will drop 25% showed elizabeth warren win the presidency, remember what happened in the past. of strategists. you have other pundits coming in 2016re the election saying we would be in for a ton of volatility. fallu won the s&p would into a recession. the immediate reaction was negative and then we saw a very strong rebound. since, the market has gained about 40% or so. it is very difficult to predict what someone's policies will actually look like and what they will focus on. david: and what they can get
done. if you look back at president obama, the market went up over -- after him as well. he started in a recession. sarah: what is interesting for obama, even though we saw the market rise 40% in his first term, bloomberg put out a survey right after the 2012 election and asked would another obama term be bad for the market? more than 50% said yes. the market went on to rally even further. people think about elizabeth warren they say her platform is even different. wanting to break up big tech and where she stands on health care. you don't know that everything is going to get through. what will those policies actually look like? i spoke with the investment of research of nationwide funds. -- economy economies is bigger than one election cycle. david: to stomach stent -- to
some extent, it is so complicated, there are so many factors u.s. economic truth, .arious fundamentals not overall. sarah: people tend to estimate the power the president has on the global economy. also even potentially on the u.s. stock market. think about what we have seen this year with the gains. a lot of that has been precipitated by the fed. say maybe president trump did help force the fed's hand. that is all conjecture. there are many other things that move the market. is one thing this president could do to make a difference and that is do something with china. sarah: every time we see him between something about china we see volatility. we got the headline past that the aipac summit in chile was going to be canceled.
stocks dropped because that is when president xi and president trump are supposed to sign that bill. there is a question mark of when they will sign that. somewhat writing that story told me warren could be similar to trump in that sense, she is very outward in the way she thinks. david: thanks so much. sarah ponczek with a great piece on the bloomberg. time for the stock of the hour, ge is the best performer in the s&p 500 today. january,st gain since going more than 10% after third-quarter results. there is a lot of good news in this. >> especially on the free cash flow. it could be as high as $2 billion. they are eliminating the possibility that it could be negative, which is what we heard from the ceo earlier. is theis really shows turnaround effort may be paying off.
they are cutting costs. they are spending less on restructuring. that bigs the question are they kicking the can down the road? industrial cash flow is the key metric, $615 million. segments,ross their it was down on revenue. saw positivenit revenue growth. that is a relief. david: power has been a drag although they are coming close. the big driver is aviation. they have a little headwinds from the 737 max 8? kailey: that is one of the first things larry called addressed. there, aviation revenue of about 8.4%. he said they are sticking by the facts that they will take about $1.4 billion due to the grounding. dealing with the ceo molen in congress.
becomes looking past this into 2020, how much uncertainty around when this plane will get into the air? david: thank you so much. a great report on general electric. set to weigh either a spinoff or a sale in order to get its deal done. his questions are said to be ongoing with both boards. summitanceled the scheduled for santiago. we speak to eric farnsworth about the civil unrest that led to the cancellation. this is bloomberg. ♪
close to a deal with jolo to recoup almost $1 million looted from invasion glezman -- from malaysian investment fund 1mdb. the settlement could be filed as soon as this week in a california court. iskey's president erdogan questioning his travel plans. he is supposed to go to washington to meet with president trump, but the house has overwhelmingly passed legislation that could penalize turkey for its military offensive in syria, and president erdogan was noncommittal when asked wit if e was still planning on making the trip. support forgiven nord stream 2. the decision as a blow to the trump administration and several european countries who opposed the deal. they worry it could increase
europe's dependence on russia as a supplier of energy. troops reopened major roads following nearly two weeks of nationwide protests. resistanceinimal from protesters as lebanese army units with bulldozers took down barriers and tents set up in the middle of highways and major intersections. demonstrators will likely give politicians a chance to form a new government, but could return to the streets in case of delay. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. crumpton, this is bloomberg. david? david: thanks, mark. argentina has a new government, bolivia has a disputed presidential election, and to lay has experienced a week of protests, causing the president to cancel the apec summit scheduled for next month. eric farnsworth.
let's start with shuai, we had , we hadwith chile that cancellation of aipac. this is what was said in part. >> fundamentally, these are all people who feel that the system is not working for them, and it is the establishment in office and the elites they are connected to. david: this was triggered by a proposed increase in fares on mass transit down there, and i have also read it is more the middle class that are behind it rather than the thoroughly downtrodden. right.hat is absolutely thanks for having me back, david. it seems to be a season of discontent across much of south america anyway. what started the chilean highernd protests was a fare on public transport, which has now ballooned into a protest against the economy. the president has had difficulties trying to on that and has canceled a pack
summit and the apec scheduled meetings in december. i think the point you have made is absolutely right. this is essentially a middle-class protest. saying ita lot about is about inequality and things like that, that is not the point. the point is missed expectations. if you look at what shall he has done over the past generations, in some ways it has been very positive. secure, the economy has been growing, and many of us have used chile as an example of what latin america could aspire to be. but those high expectations have not been met. chile is a copper-based exporting society. you have less resources and people are getting frustrated. that is what is going on here. frustrationof the in the united states has to do
with the usmca, the successor to nafta. it has been pending for some time, and one member of the house ways and means committee says they think they are close to something now. where is your sense of where that stands in congress? target, is a moving clearly, but there is some optimism coming out of congress. the democrats in the house are essentially negotiating with the u.s. labor movement to see what it will take to get to yes. if you hear from speaker pelosi, chairman neil, they are sending signals that most things have been resolved and they look forward to moving this forward. look, i am optimistic they can move this ahead, but they have to want to. they have to to want to get to yes and bring it up for a vote in the house. if it passes, it will move to the senate and the votes will be there in the senate as well. david: we spoke with david mcintosh with club for growth, and they will not be able to
move forward on usmca as long as the impeachment inquiry is moving forward. do you have a different view? eric: slightly. i think congress can walk and chew gum in the same time. i think it is in the interest of the speaker to move it forward. she wants to show that the house can legislate. impeachment is the cloud overhanging everything in congress and washington these days, there is no doubt about that area i think if they want to move it forward, they can. speakersdown to the priority, and will she move forward and walk and chew gum at the same time? i think she can. david: there was a report on bloomberg, that the administration is [inaudible] those are my words, the usmca with some transitions about -- some provisions about the transition period and the president directing auto companies as to where they need to build their cars. have you heard about that? eric: i have not heard about that specifically, but i look at
it skeptically. when you have the president telling people where they have to invest, i think people might get pretty anxious about something like that. david: and let's spend a minute on argentina. you painted a picture of two chile having a relatively strong economy. chile having a relatively strong economy. not so with argentina. eric: they defeated mauricio unable to was get argentina's economy going. he was going against some real headwinds, argentina's top trade partners, brazil has been in and there was reform made where he was not able to push through the argentina political system. we the people have voted and have a new government that will be inaugurated here in several weeks and we will have to see where they take the country. ok, eric. always great to have you with us. eric farnsworth, vice president of the council of america's, coming to us from washington.
public andalition of private interests announced to the next step in that come back, with an announcement that brings together the city, the university of michigan, and then gilbert and stephen ross. welcome to you gentlemen. esther mayer, let's start with you. where did the idea come from and how much money does the city have to put into it? from mr. idea came ross, and the city is not putting anything, stephen and the team are raising the money through philanthropy and are going to donate it. the university of michigan was founded in detroit in 1817 and moved out of the city to in 1837. arbor a new academic center with 1000 grad students in the entrance of downtown detroit is part of a huge center. it is going to be world changing for us. david: stephen, what inspired
you? you have been a major philanthropist and in the university of michigan, you are the largest donor by a long shot. where did you come up with this idea? serve on the cornell tech board in new york and seeing what they have done in creating this new school that brings together engineering, computer science, information, business, law, and medicine and really creating the future leaders of the country. , eithercompanies startups or existing companies, relocating, it is all about finding talent. i have seen how working in new york is that economic development tool with cornell tech and rhode island, and my heart has always been in detroit, being from detroit originally and seeing what the possibilities and where detroit is in this stage, and i
approached the mayor and the university of michigan and told them about the idea, and they both thought it would be great for both detroit and the university of michigan. that started the whole process and i have known dan gilbert for a long time. dohas been wanting to something and encouraging me to come to detroit and develop. all of those things came together at one time and i think it was really detroit that is really going to benefit. for the university of michigan and i think detroit's future is that much greater today. david: mr. mayor, who is the audience, so to speak? are these undergraduates, grads, people at the beginning of their careers or people being retooled by the auto companies? mike: they will be predominantly students, and bas in things like artificial intelligence and finance and cybersecurity. the jobs of the future
. the auto industry here is moving towards automated vehicle that a lot of software, and detroit is becoming a startup hub already. with stephen's plan to build an incubator next door for this graduate school to go directly into startups with their latest ideas, it has the potential to really be transformative. david: stephen, you refer to the -- the rhode island adventure. how much do you have to attract from new york, or is it from other places? of tech there is a lot in detroit. detroit has more engineers than any other place and the university of michigan, 28% of the students are involved in engineering, computer science or information science. there has been a real drain in that talents going to california and all the tech companies out there.
one is to keep the talent home, because michigan is a fertile place for corporations to grow. talking to several corporations that have been here, started here and were acquired by tech staynies that elected to in detroit because of the talent that is here and people want to be here. what the mayor has done with detroit and the position it is in, it is a place where people really want to be. where young people want to be. wherek corporations go the talent is and those young people today are also starting up companies. so it was really kind of a natural thing. it is great at this time of what is going on in the country that andoit is welcoming this not making it an obstacle for companies to start up or to grow here. in ais a big difference lot of cities today, if you see what new york did with amazon. where doesr dugan, this fit in your overall plan
for revitalization, if i can put it that way, of detroit? this university of michigan venture does not require city funds, but you have asked for $250 million to bond from the city council, which is still pending. is it time to start taxing the people of detroit a little bit to support revitalization? mike: i think people feel they have been taxed pretty well, but you have seen the unemployment rate gone from 20% to 8% in the past five years. you have seen companies come in like microsoft, google, into downtown detroit who in five would have been in the suburbs. waymo is installing self driving systems in the cars, in the in detroit. ford motor company is moving 5000 people, designing the automated electric cars of the future in the city, in detroit. this says to companies, who say i want to go to silicon valley, where no one can afford to buy a house, you
can come to detroit with cost-effective housing, room to grow, and detroit is small enough to where you could make a difference and we are big enough to matter to the world. we think we are in an attractive place and stephen made us more attractive. david: stephen, we are a little time away now from the fed with their latest rate decision. i want to ask about how president trump's economy is affecting detroit, the state of michigan? what state do you think we are in? do you have a viewpoint on that? stephen: i think business is growing. business is concerned where it is going to go from here. we have had a long period of time since we have had recession, but if you look at the policies of the trump administration, it has been very pro-business and pro-jobs. just look at the unemployment rates. they have been at historic lows. i am very optimistic, but i feel that detroit is very unique in terms of where people want to be, and this is the time for
detroit to take advantage of all the assets and attributes that it has. david: many thanks to stephen duggan, the mike mayor of the city. still ahead, he said the u.s. should not be doing any business with china. senatorwith republican rick scott of florida about the phase one trade deal that could expand u.s. trade with beijing. that's coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ omberg. ♪
chilly has now canceled that summit. we welcome now senator rick scott, republican from florida, to discuss this. what is your take on phase one? are you for it or against it? is not scott: china going to comply with it. they never comply with anything. they said they would buy our agriculture products, they did not do it. they collaborate with the wto, they allow fentanyl to be sold in our country, they said they would not militarize the south china sea, they did. they took away rights from chinese citizens -- president xi, it does not matter what he signs, they are not going to comply. they have never complied. aren't we glad the president is talking to china? that is great. they are never going to comply. david: why is the president talking with them?
president trump is not a softy, like one, andem running around with guys like peter navarro. why are they doing this at all? senator scott: hope springs internal. they have not given us any evidence they are going to change. there is also evidence president going to agree to a contract earlier this year and then changed his mind. it is consistent for communist china. they talk a big game and never, ever comply. i know mike bloomberg is going over there for a summit. i hope when they go over there, they bring up the human rights issues. they have one million people in prison for their religion, and they are just horrible human rights violators and a horrible polluter. i hope everyone with a deal with china says, stop taking away rights and stop polluting the world. david: what is a better approach? senator scott: i think we ought to be really direct with them.
i am a business guid. guy.- business done? business you need trust or that deal does not happen. china is not trustworthy. you can help and hope and help and it will not happen. and you negotiate with someone and say, this is what i have to have -- don't waste my time. i am not going to waste your time. that is what we should do with china. these are the terms under which we should do a deal with you. stop stealing our technology, open up your market, stop putting one million people in jail for religion, and see if they want to do it or not. david: as a business guy, as you say, you want to assess the leverage. should the u.s. be doing by itself or reaching out for a more multilateral approach, something the president says he does not like? senator scott: we want to get everyone to do this, but look -- whether it is trying to get the europeans to help us with maduro
in venezuela, whether it is trying to get them to help us with iran, the europeans have not shown up to fight these fights with us. unfortunately, i think it is everybody to support it, but the europeans have not really been great partner right now on this issue. david: let's turn to a different subject, boeing. what was your take on dennis muilenburg, the ceo,'s testimony -- the ceos testimony? senator scott: your heart goes out to the people who have lost their lives in the crashes. i know president mullen berg of boeing said, he apologized for that. what is important to me is to understand, have they held people accountable and made changes so this won't happen again? he gave me some answers, i still have some more questions, but that is what they've got to -- they've got to be very clear to the american deal --
american public in the worldwide public what went wrong, who they held accountable, and the allges that were made so we feel comfortable flying boeing jets. i think they have some work to do. well into this process, months and months of this process. why has it taken so long? senator scott: these big companies, the lawyers tell them, he careful of what you say. that is legitimate because of litigation, but we have to be more forthcoming. the ceo yesterday, i felt like he really wanted to make sure boeing continues to be a great company, and they are. i think he was very apologetic to the families that lost their loved ones, but there is still a lot of work to do, and there is a lot of work for them at faa to do to convince us that their process actually works. was my question, did the regulators let us down? there were some confusions over
the internal regulations that were not given by the faa, they thought they could spin the faa. senator scott: i think whenever bad things like this happen, you have to say, something went wrong. what we thought was working maybe did not work, so we've got to make a change. what is important to me and to all federal agencies is to say ok, people make mistakes. i hate that. what are we going to do to change it and convince the american public, whether it is a taxpayer or whoever we are, that your government is working? our countries have to do it, the federal government has to do it, the faa has to do it. -vid: are we to delegating too much to the regulated by the regulators? senator scott: i think so. our airline director has gotten better and better and better. when things like this happen, you have to step back and say, what went wrong and what should we change?
clearly we have to change something. i think the has not come forward and said exactly what they would do. has not come forward and said exactly what they would do. disclosure,ck bloomberg is holding its new economy forum in beijing, coming up in mid-november. we are about one hour away from the fed decision, where the fed is expected to cut rates. bloomberg will have live coverage starting at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. cut,pect 25 basis point but when will they indicate another one and what will be coming? live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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