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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  October 31, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 men's it -- and 30 minutes into the trading session in the united states. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." happy halloween, vonnie. vonnie: we are seeing a downturn on the s&p 500, a bit of a negative tone even though president trump tweeted out that parties are looking for a different place to host apec, and an announcement will be coming soon. i would bet phase signed. however, we are reporting today that china is not so certain on all of this. that puts a bit of a dampener on market spirit supposed fomc. the 10 year yield at 1.7 1% is all thanks to the fomc, down another quarter percentage point and looking like it is on pause, at least for the moment. the dollar index weakening off the back of the fomc.
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cigna came in with great earnings and a revised higher full-year forecast. the stock taking a bit of a dive down 2.5%.5% -- coming up, we will hear from the ceo david cordani after that result. guy: let's talk about what is happening in europe. the oil sector is lower because of shell. the mining sector is down. chinese pmi data was super weak overnight. that is what we are focusing on, particularly the manufacturing side. we've got this sorry surrounding what is going on with the trade narrative. the lighthizer deal, basically the chinese aren't convinced. volume is reasonably good today. we are seeing a big moving yields, as you can see. bonds are bid, yields moving lower. we are -41 on the german ten-year. . chinese data is feeding into that story. treasury yields moving exactly
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the opposite direction you would have thought if the fed is going to stand pat from here. keep an eye on the $97 level on the dxy. euro-dollar, 1.11. we are absolutely flat on the session. vonnie: the fed cuts for a third straight meeting, and chaired powell signals that is enough for now. ceo ands is the strategist of quill management. i think powell was very effective in communicating his message. i think it was probably his best orss conference in three four meetings. even though he was pressed say the federal reserve will be on hold or in easing mode, it is very apparent that the fed is going to be data-dependent. i think this will introduce an
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element of higher volatility into the markets because we will be paying better attention to every day release that hits the wires. vonnie: we saw the reversal in the bond market, so obviously it was an expectation that something was happening. when do we get another rate cut? danielle: that's a very good question, and i think it is going to truly depend on whether or not we have a third consecutive month of contracting new orders in ism. anyink markets will fade weakness in tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report because of the general motors strike. that being said, we will pay closer attention to weekly mortgage applications, initial jobless claims. anything can sway market pricing for the next cut, and that is the box that jerome powell has purposely put himself in. guy: how high is the bar for further action in either direction? danielle: i think he's made it abundantly clear that unless inflation really picks up
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markedly, there won't be any hikes in the future, so i would certainly take that off the table for 2020, especially as we continue to see signs of economic weakening in the united states and spreading to the services sector. as far as rate cuts, i think the bar is very low. i think markets can easily price in a rate cut in the december or january meeting because, again, he has said that he will assess dataituation on a data by basis. guy: is waiting for the consumer to crack a dangerous strategy for the fed? danielle: i really think it is. if you look at the bank earnings, as strong and robust as they were, you've seen credit card spending take down, so the growth rate has slowed. the growth rate of wages has slowed as well. there is something to be said for moving from 4.6% to 2.9% consumption, but being wholly reliant on that, as well as a trade war resolution to bring
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business investment back, it is a risky strategy. vonnie: bloomberg throwing 'sncern on the president insistence that phase i will be signed, with china casting doubt. how much depends on phase i getting signed? danielle: i think there's a lot of onus on this coming to pass because the market has largely priced it in already. i think there will be disappointment in the markets if we don't get even the smallest sort of phase one, whatever you want to call it. in the fed has already said they reduced rates enough, that they have eased enough to compensate for the trade war, so you can't look for relief from the fed on that front. you have to go back to the u.s. consumer and consumption. i think that is the own thing that is going to push jay powell's hand. guy: why did jay powell make assumptions about the phase i deal adding done last night?
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that strikes me as being incredibly dangerous and incredibly speculative. danielle: if you look closely at the minutes, they will several members of the committee adamantly opposed to the fed easing just because of the trade war, and wanted verbiage inserted into the statement that said we are no longer going to make policy based on market pricing. i think it is the pushback he's getting from within his committee, where we are seeing obvious signs of dissent. we've got different voices coming from all corridors on that committee. i don't think he's got a consensus, but there is sayingely enough people we have to draw the line on this trade war and say that we've eased enough to compensate for it and move on. is and thing to me is it industrial recession. there have been industrial recessions in the united states in the past that have not been caused by trade tensions, and the fed has eased because of it. for me, it is something of a red
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herring, and i don't like to see powell ducking himself into this. vonnie: danielle, thank you. booth,e dimartino current quill intelligence ceo and chief strategist. here's what he could cooped up -- here's ritika gupta. the house vote expect it to break down along party lines. it doesn't make the president's conviction in the senate more likely, but it will lay out the rules and procedures. four months of protests have taken their toll on hong kong. the city has now entered a recession. hong kong's economy shrank 3.2% in the third quarter, much worse than expected, and it is the second quarter in a row that gdp has declined. experts say that for hong kong to recover, tourism from
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mainland china must revive. in august, it was half of what it was in january. in southern california, more than a dozen bushfires have broken out. the biggest is near the ronald reagan presidential library. the fires are being driven by 60 mile an hour winds. in northern california, firefighters are gaining the upper hand on a fire in one country that has burned more than 76,000 acres and destroyed dozens of homes. it is a deal that will create one of the world's largest automakers. rivals fiat chrysler and psa group have agreed to work towards a binding agreement in the next few weeks. psa's brands include peugeot and citroen. shareholders of each company will own 50% of the new entity. fiat chrysler's ceo would leave the company. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy: doesn't look like a merger of equals, judging by the share price reaction. coming up, a healthy earnings report from cigna. we speak to the ceo, david cordani, for an exclusive interview. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's check those markets now. emma chandra is here. emma: stocks falling on both sides of the atlantic. and the stoxx 600 down between 0.3% and 0.4%. trade front and center again
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after bloomberg reported that chinese officials are warning they may not budge on the thorniest of trade issues. investors weighing a slew of earnings reports. looking at the ftse 100 and the u.k., perhaps the worst performer among the major european indexes. probably impacted by the rally we are seeing in the pound. the result of all of this, we can see a bit of a rally for the havens. we are looking at treasuries, gold, and yen all rising today. the u.s. 10 year extending a rally that began yesterday when we saw the fed cut rates. gold also benefiting from fed action, trading back about $1500 an ounce. we are looking at a bunch of movers on both sides of the atlantic. best day since 2017, profit beating estimates down to higher prices. western digital down double digits, down around 13%.
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fiscal second quarter profit will be less than expected, and the ceo is retiring. shall also not doing so well -- shell also not doing so well despite a bump in the outlook on profit. earnings so far pretty resilient. one company playing its part is cigna, boosting its outlook. joining us from cigna's headquarters in connecticut is ceo of ad court donnie for an extrusive interview -- is ceo david cordani for an exclusive interview. congratulations. you beat on the top and bottom line. may be a bit of weakness in the medical segment, and also fourth-quarter guidance seems to be just a tiny bit soft. the market reacting to that little bit. anything you want to get out of
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the way on those slight weaknesses? picture, 2019 is an exceptional year for us. we've been able to increase revenue, earnings, and guidance. 18% to 20% off of an outstanding 2018 base, so we feel great about the results. we firmed up our results even further. compss some interesting for some of our businesses, but in aggregate, the results are phenomenal. vonnie: i spoke with hedge fund larry robbins the other day. he has a very bullish case for cigna. let's have a listen to what he had to say. >> there's a 32 trillion dollar price tag on medicare for all. while this is the season for politicians to try to gain votes by taking extreme positions, many people who have studied the issue realized that i pretty to trillion dollars spending program -- that a 32 trillion
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dollars spending program to eliminate ploy or let insurance that they are happy with, that is not likely to come to for wishon -- come to fruition. vonnie: one of his arguments is that cigna is undervalued. what message would you give to markets that seem to selloff hmos and insurers any time a democrat with a plan to curtail or abolish private insurers comes to the fore? david: certainly, uncertainty in the market place creates pressure on the markets. as it relates to cigna, we have a track record of building outstanding shareholder value that is a result of building great lun delivering great value for our customers and clients around the world. if you look over the last decade, we've delivered about 440% shareholder return, even including the recent dislocation in our stock. as it relates to looking forward, we positioned our company to be able to serve commercial lawyers, health plans, governmental entities,
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and individuals around the world, so we have a lot of flexibility and optionality in our portfolio. we built our business around a capital like structure. our business model requires less encumbered capital. therefore, we produce a phenomenal amount of free cash flow. that strategic optionality is important. put a number around that for 2021, we will produce in excess of $18 billion of operating cash flow from our businesses. having the structural capability, creating value every day, yields the ability to deliver value for your shareholders over a long time. reporter: david hammond here. we talked earlier when you produced the express scripts deal. when will the market start giving you credit for what you can deliver with a combined company? david: sure. we knew the marketplace was going to have to have a little bit of a latency view because our combination is a latency combination.
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we positioned the company for the next five to 10 years. there are three ways we can improve someone's life. lifestyles, and pharmaceutical interventions. behavior and lifestyle programs. ,ith our position partnerships market-leading capabilities on the medical side of the equation. so long as we deliver, the market place will reward us, and we have a track record of a decade of phenomenal results. lastly, we recognize that the overhang of the political uncertainty in the united states is just the reality. meanwhile, we are building tremendous value in the franchise by growing the franchise to approximately $150 billion of revenue, by growing our cash flow and having strategic optionality for the benefit of shareholders going forward. handicap that spread between having a warren presidency were a trump
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presidency, and asset like express scripts even those outcomes. david c: that's not my expertise. what we handicap is our customer-client partner needs. our customer/client/partner needs is to help plan for affordable health and well-being solutions that improve health, maximize quality health, and do fashion.ritical our assets have the ability to deliver on that value through public-private partnerships, as we do all over the world, and in the united states, the consolidation of those assets will be important not just for 2019 and 2020, but for many years going forward. we look forward to building on the momentum of those partnerships that exist in our country, delivering choice, and most importantly, delivering outstanding value for our clients and our customers. guy: david, the threat of
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amazon, do you see it coming anytime soon? david c: amazon is a formidable competitor in any space they decide to be in. more broadly, they are indicative of the pace of change needed from an end ovation standpoint. as we looked at amazon in the past, we see them as much as a competitor as we do as a potential partner. we partnered with them today. we are a corporation that has the number one strategic imperative to be the undisputed partner of choice, so we partner with competitor health plans, we partner with physicians, we partner with technology organizations to drive shared innovation on a forward basis, and we look forward to continue to do so. we will look at amazon is more of a partner, and as an innovation partner. potentially a competitor, but the marketplace will continue to change so long as we innovate with new programs, like our patient insurance program, our program for gene therapies. we will have plenty of
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opportunity to create value for customers, clients and shareholders. guy: but you think there is a sense within the analyst community, within the investor community, that this is a cloud that hangs over the business and the share price? do you almost need to see it happen to be able to, for the market to fully price what the competitive landscape is going to look like? i can't give you that specific answer. i appreciate you way you ask the question. i don't project that the market places waiting for it. there's not one action. our space is going through a reformatting, specifically , clients,dividuals those who finance a large portion of the equation, health plan and governmental entities need more value. we deliver the lowest cost trend , the lowest pharmacy trend. we are the only company to grow organic members or customers 10 years in a row. continuing to be innovative, and
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if you will, self disrupting yourself, even if it generates a little dislocation, and doing so in a capital efficient way. think that is a winning equation. the marketplace will ebb and as uncertainty grows and decreases. in 2019, we've delivered outstanding results, 10 months --o a transformative, nation transformative combination. we've increased our outlook three quarters in a row. that will yield value over time. vonnie: i'm just curious as to why the share price is still down 7% so far this year, and down 17% year-over-year. you have plenty of free cash flow. will you continue to use that to pay down debt, or are you looking at other potential acquisitions? david c: we've made it very clear that for the first two years of our combination, our priority was to pay down debt to
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return within our leverage range below 40%. that will be before the end of 2020 to allow our business to buy back more stock than we initially anticipated. we've bought back $1.8 billion, and we executed a couple of acquisitions, so there's a lot of help there. back to the overhang relative to the stock, after the decade i referenced, even including the , wer hang -- the overhang look forward to continuing that momentum as we go forward. as you know, there was significant overhang on the space due to pharmacy dislocation. we've kind of demonstrated to the marketplace through the first nine months of the year that we are not only able to sustain the business, we are growing it meaningfully. we are growing customers, growing service levels, growing earnings because we are delivering outstanding value to clients, to customers, to individual patients.
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as we continue to do that, the results will come. , -- davidmay jump in h: if i may jump in, you just saw a suit against the lycos auction claim. has it gone too far, litigation in health care? david c: i can't comment on any individual litigation. we tend to be a less litigious organization than some. that is a part of doing business in america. we feel quite good about our position in a variety of areas. i would not say that litigation is a transformative fuse in the space large. there are some pockets for some other parts of our ecosystem. fortunately, less so for us, in terms of our model. vonnie: all right. guy: thank you very much for your time today. we really appreciate it. cigna,ordani, the ceo of
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and bloomberg's david hammond going us for this interview.
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♪ vonnie: nancy pelosi with her weekly news conference, a particularly interesting one because we are awaiting a house impeachment vote. ,t will take its first vote supporting or not supporting the hment inquirypeac today. widely expected there will be support for this, the first move that would open up a more public process in the impeachment process. nancy pelosi speaking in her weekly news conference. we are keeping and i. >.u can also watch on life
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn guy: from london, and guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets. let's check in on the bloomberg
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first word news. here's ritika gupta. kailey: the house is set --ritika: the house is set to vote on the ground rules for impeaching donald trump. democrats say they are following the rules used in the past. republicans say the process is stacked against them. a couple of notes on caution on the u.s. economy. consumer spending trailed forecasts last month. it rose 0.2%. meanwhile, weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected. toless claims were up 5000 218,000. we will get more when the october jobs report comes out. china and the u.s. getting close to signing the first phase of a trade deal, but bloomberg has learned chinese officials doubt a long-term agreement is possible with president trump. they remain concerned about his impulsive nature, and they've told visitors to beijing that they will not budge on the toughest issues.
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the trump administration is looking to punish spain as a way to get to venezuelan president nicolas maduro. some administration officials are pushing for sanctions against spain. they say the spanish are financially supporting maduro. some u.s. officials worry that imposing sanctions would alienate an ally. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. house speaker nancy pelosi holding her weekly news conference right now. it is of extra interest today because house lawmakers are set to vote on legislation affirming the impeachment inquiry f president trump in the next hour or so. nancy pelosi says a decision hasn't been made yet. she's gone on to talk about other subjects. let's bring in bloomberg's chief
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washington correspondent kevin cirilli from capitol hill. take us through expectations for today's vote. what will we see, how long will it take, and what will be the outcome? kevin: sometime in the next hour, we are anticipating that first key vote on the impeachment inquiry process. what they are going to be voting on essentially are the rules of the road for the entire process. they also could get the rules for open public hearings. many of these hearings that are occurring behind closed doors with various officials from the state department, the various embassies and whatnot, they actually could be called back, i'm told, to testify publicly. legally speaking, of course, here in washington, d.c., magical as he doesn't have to go through with this vote, but she in washington, d.c., nancy pelosi doesn't have to go through with this vote, but she has been facing
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pressure from republicans to do so. if there is any pressure from republicans to jump over and vote with democrats, that will be worth watching. also anticipate that there is really nothing new here from this vote. it just formalizes the process. i do want to make one final note. former national security advisor john bolton has been asked to testify next week behind closed doors as a part of the impeachment inquiry process. his testimony is being regarded as something crucial as lawmakers looking to the president's relationship with how they were negotiating with ukraine. it is unknown whether or not john bolton will show up to testify. guy: let me ask a quick question. can i ask the reaction there in washington, on capitol hill, to the news that twitter is going and thatlitical ads, facebook is potentially under pressure to follow? what are people saying? kevin: they are trying to sort
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through it. last night after that news broke , i was speaking with some consultants and strategists in both parties. they were saying if you are a part of one of the democratic presidential campaigns, you're scrambling right now for how you are going to reallocate some of your money that you had raised, and how you're going to penetrate with online ad buys. the second point i would make is what a remarkable illustration of where big tech is right now in the halls of congress, when you have jack dorsey going one route, saying ads are going to be banned, and mark zuckerberg doubling down within the last week on capitol hill, defending how facebook has responded with the guards to political ads. big tech, as we know, is under increased pressure from lawmakers in both parties, but what a large departure for twitter to take a very different approach than what facebook did. i do want to note that this ad
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change does not do anything, that we know of, as of now to restrict the access of bots, and that is something twitter has come under fire for ever since the 2016 presidential election. vonnie: our thanks to chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. i do want to point out that we are anticipating that vote coming sometime within the next hours, as soon as a few minute'' time, potentially. house speaker nancy pelosi saying that democracy is at stake in the house resolution vote today. she says a decision on impeachment hasn't been made yet, but she has the votes needed on the house impeachment probe. the first vote would support the democrats' impeachment inquiry. guy: we will get back to that twitter story as well, announcing it will stop all political ads. jack dorsey announcing, "we reach shouldical
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be earned, not bought." part of our interview with facebook cielo sheryl sandberg -- facebook coo sheryl sandberg was on that subject. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's talk about our stock of the hour. today we're looking at lloyd's come out the bank out of the u.k. come falling 3% at the lows lloyd's, then -- bank out of the u.k., falling 3% at the lows of the session. in a chandran is here with more -- emma chandra is here with more. emma: profit at lloyd's almost
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wiped out in the third quarter due to a one billion pound charge for involvement in the miss selling of payment protections, a scandal that has dogged u.k. banks over a number of years and cost the multi-billions of pounds. this is expected to be the last charge. nevertheless, we are looking at the banking industry in the u.k. and in europe that has come under pressure. you can see how lloyd's andy how lloyd's and the stoxx 600 index are lacking. changes, looking at the coo looking to retire next year. the, norman blackwell, long-standing chairman, due to retire in 2021. lloyds really looking to inject new blood at the top. the coo known as a confidant of ceo, and played a
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critical role in helping the group recover from the financial crisis. recovertill trying to , about 9% held by the u.k. government, still trading below its price. vonnie: thank you for that. imran khan was previously involved in high-profile public offerings, including snap and alibaba. he spoke with jason kelly and carol massar about what went ipo. with wework's delayed >> in one word, corporate greed. i think the key thing is whenever we give someone money, and give them your trust, it is a fundamental thing that people don't appreciate. when investors -- forget about investors, your friends or your parents or uncles give you money, they give you their trust. when you take that money, you have a responsibility. you have a responsibility to
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live by the trust they give you. i think often time, we saw that he corporate executives don't appreciate the trust that investors give to them. the gross we saw negligence of that trust. carol: you are talking about adam neumann. >> yes, and corporate greed is to a level that i haven't seen since 1999, 2000. carol: what about the role of softbank in this, and what about the role of investment bankers when they try to take it public and all of these issues came out? the responsibility of investment bankers? softbank as ank investor, you have to make two decisions. you have to analyze the investment as an opportunity, and we can argue whether wework
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was a good or bad investment from an investment lends perspective. softbank -- and as an investor, you always have to trust the management with the money. if they don't follow through, i think it is a very difficult thing for investors to empathize with softbank. i sip it is with softbank supervise with softbank because they give their money to someone who didn't respect their trust. the guards to investment banks, clearly investment banks could have higher standards, but the good news is did the due diligence and disclosed all this information. carol: do you feel like it was too late in the process? this is a company that was around for a while. imran: i think it couldn't have disclosed it couldn't have disclosed before the filing anyway. jason: when you think about it
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through your banker lens, your research analyst lens, exploration of private markets versus public markets when it comes to valuations, when it comes to when money gets put in, who makes the money in a lot of ways, you saw this in some ways at your job at snap. what do you make of where we are at this moment, and what is it going to take two maybe fix this between private valuations and public valuations, or is it working the way it is supposed to? imran: i think the private valuation, know, the you can argue that in many cases, not always, but i think i can see why investors like it. you don't have to worry about day-to-day volatility. the challenge with the public market, the market is so volatile.
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investors are so short-term oriented. the people giving allocation to those investors are so short-term oriented that every little piece of news moves the stock. that creates challenges. i think if you want to build a business for long term and want to make a long-term decision, to be honest, it is very difficult to do that in public markets these days. that onnk i understand private markets. but saying that, a lot of great companies were built in the public market. and as aunt went public very early. -- amazon went public very early. i think it is getting more challenging, and lots of funds are getting really big, that they are not willing to stay in small and mid-cap names anymore. guy: imran khan, cofounder and ceo of their a shop -- of verishop. let's talk about twitter, and
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the announcement that it will stop all political ads on its platform. ceo jack dorsey saying, "this isn't about free expression. reach."about paying for that sentiment was not echoed by facebook as it reported earnings yesterday and reassured their stance when it comes to political ads. here to break it all down for us, alex webb of bloomberg opinion. this is much easier for jack dorsey to do than it is for mark zuckerberg to do. what are the risks of saying that we are not going to take political ads? alex: there's a tacit admission debt they aret exposed to the same standards that newspapers have. if they say we are not going to run particular ads on our platform, that could seem like an editorial decision, and therefore, by implication, they are a publisher. that is an argument that facebook has long held, despite
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the fact that they make their own videos and put them up there, they are insistent that they are just a platform, and that platforms by nature should .e neutral is obviouslyitter a place for commentary, particularly around democracy and elections and various trends of thought. will twitter take anymore actions beyond just banning political ads, do you think? alex: i think it's unlikely. the timing of this was pretty canny on jack dorsey's part. . he announced it on twitter an hour before facebook earnings dropped, so it was quite a neat way of sticking the knife into facebook a little bit, trying to own the conversation at a time when facebook had some very good earnings numbers to announce. it is an easy decision for twitter to make. they have very little revenue, i think about $3 million, from political ads.
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they are trying to be seen as being more of a responsible citizen, given that they are such a huge mouthpiece for, not others,nald trump and to speak directly to their base. but twitter makes money off of the fact that people are engaging in its platform to read those posts, to see them, and it is pushing ads in those peoples directions, so it is slightly hypocritical because ultimately, they are still looking money from what could be damaging political content. guy: we talked to sheryl sandberg last night. let's take a listen. yl: we are not doing this because of revenue. it is less than 1% of our thenue, and it is not worth controversy. politicalieve in speech. guy: if they continue but they are doing, the regulatory risk is there.
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be,difficult is it going to was publisher risk on one side and regulatory risk on the other, for facebook to navigate this properly? alex: the regulatory conversation is inevitably complex because it is really about competition. that is the issue. do they have to tell and it -- do they have too dominant a position in the market they are active in? they are really an advertising company, so that is where the regulatory risks or the antitrust risk arises. the question of not wishing to anger politicians who might be making those decisions, if you're going to start taking out particular ads, that might rile up some of the people who are going to be ultimately making those decisions. on the other hand, that is a separate debate, but there is a dotted line from one that might influence the other. guy: the venn diagram slightly overlapping.
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alex webb joining us on this fascinating story. vonnie: let's take you back to capitol hill. as you can see, representative kevin mccarthy there. house representatives have begun debate before the legislation affirming and impeachment in cory f president trump -- affirming and impeachment inquiry of president trump. in tbilisi mentioned no decision has been made -- nancy pelosi mentioned no decision has been made on impeachment, but the democrats have the votes that would lead to a public phase of the investigation. you can follow along on life -- on live . this is bloomberg. rep. mccarthy: this is the moment that history will write. history will ask you when you cast this boat, when you cast a vote to justify something that has gone on by kind -- on on behind closed doors, i want you
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to ask a historian and answer the question, what do you know that happened there? have you read anything that took place?
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's go to chicago now. it's time for futures in focus. of agorakman joins us financial. does the market think up there in chicago that the fed is done? alan: first thing, let's remember that the market had it right yesterday. there was a maybe 5% -- there was a 95% chance of a rate cut, and that is what happened. looking at the markets, there is a 50% chance there will be a rate cut by march. so they are still, you've got to remember, there's external pressure at all times to continue to cut rates to
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stimulate for certain people's personal interests. guy: in terms of what the effect of all of this is going to be, the dollar is headed for $97 on the dxy. how big is that? adam: that was a big deal. the big reversal yesterday was pretty significant. everyone is looking for a dollar downturn. it hasn't happened. 96 is the critical point, but we've pushed down below these recent lows. i think we are down near the four year lows. the first step is to break 97%. the markets are telling us there are still rate cuts in the future, so that should weaken the dollar. we will have to wait and see. my focus has been on the macro market. it has been nice to see the full come back for those nonbelievers that we are still in market. the combination of the dollar decline in the macro market taking off come of these global growth concerns that have heard something like crude oil can be
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alleviated a little bit. from risk-reward, there's a lot of opportunity in some of these commodities, especially the energy sector that has been. left behind. guy: are people talking about a -- that has been left behind. guy: our people talking about a weak payroll number? adam: there's been consistent growth in jobs for hominy months, how many years? it doesn't really shakeup the market that much unless there is a complete surprise. if there continues to be weakness in the stock growth, it used to be that people complained if there weren't 200,000 jobs. that may be can raise the chances of the rate cut once again. let's remember that the pressure that the fed is under each and every day, there is some sort of tweet or nudge to lower rates. do you want to please your boss, or do you want to try to have some independence? that's the question, but the markets keep telling us there's going to be more cuts to the futures, which would weaken the
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dollar, which would help out the opportunity, which would help out some of these commodity sectors that have been lagged behind as we see stocks make all-time highs. guy: great to see you. thanks for your time. us, agouraan joining financial. vonnie: it's time for the bloomberg business flash. bnp paribas posted a third-quarter gain in its fixed income trading business, outrunning wall street in european peers, at the same time cutting costs. it has exited u.s. commodity derivatives. shell warning of a weak economic outlook. they say that could slow the pace of returns to shareholders. shell easily beat in the highest analyst estimates third-quarter profits, but the ceo cautioned that the company may not keep buying back shares at the current rate. the owner of british airways reported a drop in third-quarter
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airline'shit by the first pilot strike in 30 years. the ceo says if you factor out the strike, the company had good underlying results, but warns that the economic outlook remains soft. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. let's take you back to capitol hill now. voting has just begun on legislation affirming and impeachment inquiry of president donald trump. we are going to be taking you through that vote. representative steve scalise earlier said he doesn't anticipate any republicans will vote for the vote. we shall see. that vote coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: stocks slide on a bloomberg report that china does not see a long-term trade deal. --l we are get phase two will we ever get phase two? voteouse is set to
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on starting open hearings into president trump. fiat chrysler and psa agree on a fiat stocksile urges, peugeot slides. i'm guy johnson in london, with vonnie quinn in new york. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: a series of votes have begun in the house. we will take you to capitol hill in just a few moments. the impeachment vote is what we are going to be watching. right now, we are to see little bit below in u.s. equities. a little bit of reaction to the fomc, and the idea that we still don't have a new location for apec, even though president trump has promised that there


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