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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 6, 2019 1:30pm-2:01pm EST

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trump and xi jinping may not be pact untilnk the december and the signing ceremony is unlikely to take place on u.s. soil. the limited trade deal would entail the u.s. dropping tariffs on some chinese imports in exchange for beijing resuming purchases of american farm goods and other products. the u.s. house of representatives will begin public impeachment hearings on president trump next week. adam schiff made the announcement today. three house panels have been interviewing witnesses in private over the last few weeks. among them is the former u.s. whoseador to ukraine, public hearing is scheduled for november the 15th. remington bullets made in the u.s. were found at the site where nine family members were killed in northern mexico on monday. door has ordered a multiagency effort to ink --
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investigate the attacks on members of the lebaron family. many had dual citizenship in both countries. u.s. access toe the probe. new york city's retiring police [no audio] monday. he said he would be leaving november 30 for an unspecified private sector job, calling it "something i couldn't pass up." global news, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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>> live from bloomberg birrell headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. >> and i'm amanda lanning. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. china wants a large slice of the saudi aramco pie. bloomberg has learned that china may invest up to $10 million in what could be the biggest stock market listing in history. xerox is set to way an intentional bid for hp in the merger of two former american tech giants that have both seen better days. softbank's misstep, the ceo issues a mea culpa when it comes to his investment in we work. but he sticks to his vision and stays confident about future opportunities. shery: let's get you started with a quick check on the
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markets. the s&p 500 is flat at the moment. down for a second session. take a look at the midday fall that came as we got the report. perhaps china and the u.s. will not be able to sign a partial trade deal . we saw a lot of 10 point drops at that point, flat at the moment, coming after bloomberg that alaska will not be the location where they may meet. energy is one of the fixed decliners in the session. it is actually the biggest drop in the s&p 500 in today's session, as oil is also down from the six week after the report that the top producers in opec plus may not be pushing for deeper cuts when they meet next month. take a look at one of the most traded stocks today. huber, sinking to a record low after five sessions of losses.
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we have seen that post ipo selling restrictions have been lifted for early investors, releasing a lot of downside pressure. including investors not being happy with the latest earnings out of uber. block trades, goldman sachs with unknownn shares to holders. a lot of pressure for this company, amanda. and as you mentioned, a lot of pressure for the energy sector as well. a quick check on the price of oil over the long-term, one of the things factored in here is where we go on the global economy. when we hear from the imf saying to europe to be prepared for a downturn, including headwinds from brexit, that plays in here. and here is a name that is suffering the brunt of some of this, chesapeake energy. former high flyer, the oil and gas company has been dealing with low energy costs for some time.
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a heavy debt load, the concern now is chesapeake will not be able to go on as a going concern, as they had warned. one of the factors in all of this had been the trade headlines, for sure. president trump and president xi may not able to find a partial trade deal until december. this as we hear from the imf to europe, preparing emergency plans for an economic slump as continues toutlook spread. to break it down for us, we have bloomberg's chief economist, tom ehrlich. in some ways this is obvious, but it is interesting to hear as christine lagarde gets in there and examine. this echoes to me something the bank of canada governor said to me a few weeks ago. time for real fiscal policy. is that the message from the imf here? well.hink that sums it up
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looking around the world, there are some central banks with room to support growth. the people's bank of china has room to support growth. the ecb, with the best will in the world, is facing a fairly hard constraint. interest rates are already negative. they already have an open-ended qe policy in place. germany may already be in a technical recession. italy continues to struggle. brexit risks loom. our base case is the european economy struggles through and 2020 looks fractionally stronger. clearly, there are some significant risks there. we could get tariffs from the u.s. or a deepening u.s. china trade war. brexit could go off the rails. if that happens, we are in agreement with the international monetary fund, monetary policy won't have the answers and we will need to look to fiscal support.
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now that bloomberg has learned that the summit may not happen until december, what would that say for the upcoming mid-december tariffs? what happens if those are not delayed? >> that's absolutely the key question to focus on here. we have got a new set of tariffs that has come into place and they are very impactful. they would hit things like consumer electronics. the kinds of products that u.s. companies like apple produce in china and then shipped to the united states. it would also mean that effectively all chinese sales to the u.s. are facing punitive tariffs. markets, the critical question is, will this affect the trade deals that have been done and, beyond that, when will it be done and can it be done
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ahead of the december deadline? if not, i think that is going to be, that is going to cause people to look again at their risk portfolios. drill backant to into the imf forecast around brexit and the numbers that they are suggesting will materialize in the event of a disorderly brexit. 3.5 percent decline, half of 1% for the eurozone. not that that is not a big number, but in terms of that, does that seem right? and in terms of policy responses , that's kind of a big fiscal response required to offset those kinds of numbers. have arly, if we disorderly brexit and a breakdown in trade relations between the u.k. and continental europe, that's a massive hit on both sides of the channel. sterling falls, it hits consumer spending power. europe is going to suffer because of all of the trade ties that will be broken.
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what matters a little bit, if we end up in a hard brexit scenario , is how much time businesses have to prepare. if hard brexit comes as a sudden surprise, they won't have any time to prepare. lorries,have cues of kilometers long at the ports. seeing a short, sharp shock. if we move towards it with a bit is ame to prepare, it significant negative, but perhaps a little bit less than if it came as a sudden shock. all right, tom orlik, thank you so much. we have breaking news crossing the bloomberg at the moment. tiffany has asked lvmh to raise its $14.5 billion acquisition offer, arguing that it significantly undervalues the jewelry chain.
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this comes after the lvmh $100 .er share all-cash bid according to the "reuters" , lvmh remade's engaged. sources have previously said that the tiffany's board saw a private level of $140 per share. another report from reuters saying that tiffany has asked how the mh to raise their acquisition offer. you see tiffany at the moment gaining ground. all right, the ties that bind. china is in talks to invest a combined $5 billion to $10 billion in the aramco ipo. xi jinping has been looking to increase chinese political paul, as well as revive trade routes. this would cement ties between china and saudi arabia. for more, let's welcome the atlantic council senior fellow and "saudi inc." author.
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thank you for joining us is the phone. tell us how invest -- how significant this would be. >> this would be a very investment. we are talking about a combined $5 billion spread between different chinese state entities , like the chinese sovereign wealth fund. even though this wouldn't bring china anywhere near a significant enough share to actually us -- affect things on the board of voting, what it does do is give china a measure of leverage over the saudi government. for example, what could happen is that china would be able to sell shares quickly, even at a take af they wanted to loss, causing a aramco shares to fall. china, with a $5 billion loss, if it needs it leverage -- it
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could mean leverage for something they really want. aramco, there won't be a lot of liquidity here because saudi investors are being encouraged not to sell shares. in china, in a big way, they could send the price of aramco shares way down by liquidating their own stake. something they could hold over the saudi government if they wanted to. so, geopolitically i imagine that gets the attention of others, including the u.s. government. is there anything, should there be any had of action taken on this front to avoid what could be an alliance or chokehold on supply? or as you say, undue influence over an important player in the region? that's a really good question and it is something the government and policymakers should be taking note of. it could alter the political dynamics of the region in a very profound way. i'm not sure there is anything they could really do about it,
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put try toto potentially work on their own relationship with saudi arabia, leveraging it possibly in another put try to potentially way, but does nothig the state can do if china decides to make this purchase. amanda: how will this play into haas -- president trump aim to make saudi arabia the centerpiece of this middle east policy? ellen: well, he is making it the centerpiece, but it would complicate somewhat. like i said, it would change the dynamics and really make saudi arabia, i wouldn't say beholden to china, but they would have to take this into consideration when doing policy, meaning you have got china with a very influential role in iran and a very influential role in saudi arabia. keep in mind, though, saudi arabia is china's largest supplier of oil. it's not as though the saudi's
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don't have anything they are selling to china. this maybe in a way equalizes the relationship between the countries. just just in terms of what the u.s. could do, sovereign wealth funds have that might to do this. could the pressure go on to u.s. investors to up the bid question mark something policymakers might be looking at right now? or even a discussion with the saudi's about smaller truncheons to avoid this? ellen: i think they should definitely have a discussion with the saudi's and remind the saudi's that they are essentially beholden to the united states for military technology and there is a big role that the united states playing -- plays inch -- in ensuring safe passage of oil through the region. we are still your biggest
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advocate, ally, strategic partner in the region, because china now owned a large portion of the oil company, or will own it. you shouldn't forget that we actually play a big role, even though we are not buying into the ipo. to have your expertise. thank you. coming up next, xerox may weighing a potential bid for hewlett-packard. this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is bloomberg markets. i'm shery ahn, in new york. amanda: i'm a mandolin, in
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toronto. a merger of office giants, xerox lining up financing from citigroup for hp. but does it make sense for the maker of photocopiers to acquire ofoderately hipper maker renters and pcs? our bloomberg intelligence senior hardware analyst is with us. in terms of the merger, one thing that jumps out is that these were huge names of a bygone era. does this make sense? >> this is mostly a financial engineering transaction. if you look at the deal, xerox can raise about $20 billion and even with a slightly higher cost of capital, we think potentially they can swallow the deal. said, look, if you look at the hp printer business and the xerox printer business, xerox is strong in the high-end, where they can sell three dollars
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worth of print supplies of for every dollar they sell you, hp, two the opposite of dollars of print supplies for every dollar of printer they sell you. putting those together, you get a printer giant. more importantly, a supplies giant that can tie you up in a long-term sales contract when they sell you a printer. the pc business is a cash flow generator. slowere a steady eddie, decline business, if you may, on the printing side, offset by the pc side. that is what you are left with. it's not sexy, by any stretch, but it potentially slows things down for both companies. if you look at the cost perspective, both of these companies are taking costs out of their own companies, pretty substantially. when you put them together to's two subtract more
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costs, more can come out of the equation. on the revenue side, there's not a whole lot to talk about. so, that's effectively the kind of deal we will talk about. it will draw antitrust scrutiny across the globe, something else they have to watch out for. 9 -- amanda: are we going to see more accommodation in the market? >> this is a consolidated market to begin with. it's not a growth market. it's a shrinking market, from a structural perspective. consolidation has only happened. companies have gone private. companies having sold off unprofitable entities. again, this is not a great market. when you can do financial engineering around it, you can have slower sales growth, the better earnings growth as a result. and a cash business that throws out a lot of cash flow. shery: thank you so much.
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coming up, a $6.5 billion problem. striking aceo defined tone, despite we work and uber on the bottom line? that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: "bloomberg markets this is "bloomberg markets -- this is "bloomberg markets." , unapologetichi after enormous losses into wework and uber. it's their first lost in 14 years. look ofake a evaluations that the vision fund
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invested in and how they have been falling, it's not surprising that you have seen those affected. >> it's true. we work was not the only problem here. masayoshi son made the point that listen, they are up since we first invested many years ago. important to recognize that they had public market that's that are also in trouble, according to reporting from "the wall street journal," just a couple of weeks ago. amanda: one of his defenses was that we make big bets and when we do that, some of them fail. is there logic to that? losses outsized, but big wins? >> if you are not ready to brooke some zeros, you are not really playing the game. but what softbank had done is
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for a lot of money into companies that had loose standards here for the governance, right? when you think about we work, that's the poster child here. showing that they were ready to buckle down on that, that is something that will be a welcome change to silicon valley, should it be something that they do. about a second vision fund? thean what happened to first one? >> s the question. who will invest in it? it's unclear where investors stand in his game. also, what's going to happen to the exit for the first fund. the ipo market now is not where it was. how are they going to find a return from the first fund like they have been wanting. do you think that people
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are buying the defense? day, so is down on the i think the question is whether they find a bottom. remember, softbank is a mobile company, more than just division funds. it's kind of muddy to see through it there, but at least that big story for softbank is how much of it is part of that right now. -- shery: appreciate it. a reminder, you can catch all of the functions on your bloomberg through g tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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's get the first word. a signing between the u.s. and china. the two presidents may not be
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able to ink the pact until december and at the signing ceremony is unlikely to take place on u.s. soil. the trade deal would entail the u.s. dropping tariffs on chinese imports in exchange for a beijing resuming purchases of american farm goods and other products. national secured advisor john bolton has reportedly voiced opposition to white house efforts to pressure ukraine into investigating president trump's political rivals. it is reported he was unwilling to directly intervene. he is said to be the highest official to take issue with a shadow ukraine policy. he is expected to be a no-show for his appointment with impeachment investigators tomorrow, that sets the house impeachment investigation releases the transcripts of testimony by william taylor, the top u.s. diplomat in ukraine. a federal judge today struck down a new abortion role


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