tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg November 10, 2019 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
haidi: good morning, i have haidi stroud-watts. we are an hour from the open of markets in south korea and japan. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. welcome to daybreak asia. rising food costs and -- china's leaders with a headache amid new doubts about a trade deal. the price seems right for alibaba, singles' day off to a scorching start as shoppers around the world look for bargains. election,s a fourth
but early suggest -- results to gamble may not pay off. we are live in madrid. haidi: to gamble may not pay off. we are live in madrid. haidi: let's hear how the trading week has started with markets coming online. sydney starting trading. investors after a bad week of trading, looking for a new catalyst. so for the next step up with trade negotiations, not much has developed but it is a big event risk week when it comes to the asian data, not least of which , industrialles production. domestic activity out of china with the deeper numbers out of china recently. theey on the back foot as day begins, new zealand trading up 1.25%. we are seeing when it comes to trading in the u.s. session this week, mildly positive after the s&p closed out friday at a fresh
record high. you see japanese markets extending gains into a sixth straight week. let's get you to first word news. su: we start with more fallout in the u.k. from the brexit drama. has kept the sovereign credit rating to a negative outlook citing a weaker ability to set policy because of uncertainty with brexit. the decision comes at the start of an election campaign and agency notes increasing inertia and paralysis in parliament. the leading political parties are appealing for an election. both parties promising higher government spending. in bolivia the president has resigned after the army called on him to go amid a wave of protests. he had agreed for a new election after the organization of american states said last month vote was marred by serious
irregularities. he had served three terms as president and claimed a fourth victory in the election which has been seen as tainted. a state of emergency declared in the australian state of new south wales. after a bushfire risk has reached a catastrophic level. three people were killed and 150 homes destroyed over the weekend. fires burned through areas rendered exceptionally dry after a two-year drought. the situation is expected to worsen as the weather turns dry this week. and the latest on the damage from the powerful cyclone that hit bangladesh and north india,n -- northeastern it killed 1400 people, thousands ite moved to safety as crosses the coastline. the storm sustained winds of 120
kilometers per hour and is expected to drive a sea search. it is weakening moving inland. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. ♪ rapid rises in food costs and tumbling factory prices combining -- threatening china's policymakers as doubtsnt trump sows about the trade deal. tom mackenzie joins us with more . a bit of an inflation dilemma. tom: what we have is a clear divergence between the consumer prices and producer prices. it could make it more difficult for china's policymakers to act as the indicators suggest the economy is slowing and the trade war continues even if talks are making progress.
you have a rise of 3.8% in october for context that is a seven year high. the headline number is down to pork prices surging up 100% in october because of the swine fever that has decimated much of the pig population. in terms of producer prices, it is different. october, four for straight months of declines. and that questions the ability of companies to pay down their debt, profit outlook, and how they can invest and generate growth and job support. that is where policymakers are concerned. people inty for beijing will be the producer prices, the concern about the deflation. they will continue to see easing bias even as consumer prices make the decision making more difficult. they will want to try to stimulate demand to alleviate
the pressure on the producers and keep an eye on what this means, additional easing, for consumer prices, and household, who are spending more on their food. president trump suggesting he might not be willing to roll back tariffs after all. is this small gamesmanship? tom: it is something we have seen in the past from him. so we were hearing from both --es significant process, progress. they were looking ahead to a finding a location and to sign off. trump said essentially hold on. i have not agreed to roll back all of the terrorists. listen -- tariffs. listen. >> they have moved slowly, too slow for me. they want to make the deal more than i do.
but the trade talks with china are moving along nicely. it will be a great deal and if it is not i won't make it. trying to position himself, showing the u.s. in a strong position as the talks continue. he has not ruled out moving some terrorists. we heard from larry kudlow saying if there was a face one there would be concessions from both sides and the chinese officials and will -- as well saying the u.s. and china agreed to roll back tariffs in phases. many expected november 15 tariffs would be put off or taken off. the question is whether or not those $110 billion worth of goods, whether they will be removed as well. more questions over exactly what happens with those tariffs and we don't know when the two presidents will meet or where. haidi: great deal of
uncertainty. tom mackenzie. alibaba singles' day has enjoyed a scorching start. let's get to their base. selina wang is on the ground. $16 billion worth of purchases in the first 90 minutes. selina: that is right. already on pace to beat a record number last year, $31 billion. it is the 11th annual event, the first since jack ma stepped down and the first in which this other present is overseeing the event. it hast was started, branched into a global phenomenon with competitors like and others participating. it is an important bellwether for overall sentiment. with these numbers and alibaba's strong showing of revenue growth, it shows chinese
consumer -- [please stand by] wangeen: that is selina joining us to talk about the alibaba single day which has been hugely successful. she will have more later in the show. we will have more analysis on the marquee shopping event later. -- deputy head and later we will hear from wpi see boss jacob cook. of business executives and policymakers in singapore for the city state annual fintech festival. correspondent has been of the event for us having a wonderful time. what is coming up today? haslinda: [laughter] wonderful indeed when the roll call is at 5:00 a.m.
it is the largest in the world and comes amid rising -- you look at the data, there has been a 64% increase in activity across the board on average across the world, prompting some arealdovan regulation loss they are promoting innovation. it is a big question which will be addressed by the participants at this event. still to come, throughout today, lots of exclusive interviews. the first interviews including the royal bank global director here. we will look at how the world inc. will playing -- world bank will play a role. investors lagging behind, how do they play catch-up? also speaking to the insurance co-ceo. how she thinks the ipo failure of we work may affect the ipo's
on units including one connect based co-founder will be joining us as well. such a great lineup. can't wait. it is a busy week ahead for eco-data in asia. huntereconomics' sarah joins us. kathleen: what a new bloomberg survey says the pound is unlikely to drop much further. whatever the outcome of next month's elections. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
our next guest is the chief australia economist. what is top of mind? >> starting off with gdp numbers, pretty positive. we have got plenty ahead of tax hike. in contrast you mentioned hong kong, it will be a difficult number. it will give good indication of how damaging the protest has been. haidi: that the -- pmi number was horrible. >> the authorities in terms of what they need to do and resolve the situation and get things back on track. it could be a weaker number around retail and tourism because we expect those have been badly impacted. and that the interest rate decisions, not expecting anything from the rbnz but you never know.
they like to shock the market and give us a few surprises. we are not expecting anything things data looking like are softening around business investment, consumption for global headwinds starting to drag. we think they will fit into next year. haidi: the domestic committee numbers -- activity numbers would be key. we also have cpi and ppi. there was a big kick off of the back of the pork prices but ppi was very weak. that number is concerning. that is the better indication how the economy is around manufacturing. looks as though the impact of the trade war is continuing to be felt. if we look at the timing of how exports will be impacted, it takes a good year for the full impact to come through. it isber and this year still working its way through
the system. more bad news likely to come in terms of trade, then remains to be seen how much the authorities respond and with what. kathleen: i want to spend more time on the china ppi data because we just got over the weekend producer prices down. i have a chart from the library. you see four months in a row declining prices. the upper part of the chart it tends to hurt industrial profits. more broadly, one of the most interesting stories from bloomberg is china potentially is exporting deflationary prices to the rest of the world. this is not just an issue for china. is this something which has -- is it going to go away or get worse? in terms of a structural trend for tradable goods, it is
something we have seen for quite some time. you can see that in any develop cpi. australia where i am is no exception. you can see it across the board and china is a key part of the global trading system and has been. for falling pork production for tradable goods, being pushed out globally, -- in terms of weight is weaker now i think it is a sign the impact of the tariffs, the fall off exports we are seeing to the u.s., it won't affect the aggregate. and to try and compete, choosing to reduce prices. the profit margin, the cost going down. and doesof where we go this continue, i would say for the near term it is likely the environment will be challenging
for trade focused producers in china and the manufacturing sector over the near term. the full impact of the september tariffs is yet to see through. we will see that in export orders now. there has been some good news and maybe not from the trade agreement. our view is what we are likely to see is where they don't increase from where they are now so we don't get delayed october tariffs or the one scheduled for -- we arebut we are's skeptical about a rollback. president trump said he would do that. it will be a drag. kathleen: he won't roll back all of the terrorists. -- the tariffs. reserve bank of new zealand cuts,g, the gigantic
the cash rate versus property prices, asking if that is what the rate cuts have done. is there really a need for the rbnz to keep cutting? you think the trade war keeps going? >> we think they will cut because it is consistently what they have done through this year. they have tended to surprise the markets. the last cut, us of guard. if we look at the economic indicators, pretty clear momentum in the economy is cooling. domestic demand and trade story. investments looking weaker. consumer spending as well, moderating. they want to support growth,
they want to keep the economy turning and keep employment growth going, all of the indicators in moderation. that is why they will choose to cut to counteract. the have been pretty clear on the threat and what they are likely to do. we think they will follow through on that because they have in the past. haidi: always appreciate your time. sarah hunter here in sydney. we will get the latest in bolivia. it is down claiming he is the victim of a coup. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
max 8 is safe. the advisory board was created after the jet was grounded and has presented a preliminary report and agreed to the changes to the altitude sensor compliant with relations but says morty to be done before it can fly again. kathleen: alibaba have added citigroup and morgan stanley to its upcoming listing. said to invited chinese banks with a decision expected monday. alibaba plans to start taking investor orders friday and it will price the offer the following week. the timing could change even so as much as $15 billion u.s. haidi: tencent aims to make confidence in the u.s. through its ownership with nintendo. it has taken stakes in epic games and activision blizzard. they are aiming to step up
dominance in the chinese gaming market and planning romance titles to appeal to younger female players. let's look at how things are kicking off. 12ney trading underway, minutes, staggered start. look at how we are faring, up half a percent, tracking gains on wall street, s&p 500 with another record high weighting the next development in trade. new zealand ahead of the policy decision up .1%. chicago nikkei futures looking flat as do u.s. futures. kathleen: south america's longest serving president has resigned after election regulator -- election irregularities triggered weeks of protest and intervention from the armed forced -- forces. the president says he is the victim of a coup. joining us our editor.
what happened in the last 25 hours? reporter: [indiscernible] today's events started in the morning when the organization of american states that there were serious irregularities in the vote. after they said that the president agreed to new elections but didn't specify a date. and in the afternoon the commander of the armed forces said morales should step down in the interest of peace. quit.that morales kathleen: jubilation in the streets? reporter: it is a mixed reaction. morales says he is the victim of a coup. he is the longest-serving leader in south america. he was a towering figure, an
ally of the venezuelan president chavez and maduro. he is very angry. the government of mexico says it is a military coup. his opponents in bolivia and elsewhere [indiscernible] written election and [indiscernible] . happenso we know what next? any indication of elections? reporter: it is not clear. the country has turned violent in recent weeks leaving three people dead. people are.gry earlier today relatives agreed to new elections but didn't set a date, so it is unclear when these will be and who the candidates will be and it is not clear who is running the country now. the vice president also quit and the leader of congress.
what about the economic implications? reporter: he was a socialist and strong ally of other socialists strongregion but ran a administration. he was very pragmatic. down.g debt grew morales the country relatively strongly. hasles to some extent brought stability to a country that used to see presidents come and go frequently. at the same time he was arrested so it is not certain how markets will react. brister there with the report. the latest in south america to be convulsed by political unrest
kathleen: this is daybreak asia. i am kathleen hays. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts. singapore's fintech festival kicks off this week, but it will also partner with the week of innovation and technology sustainability. climate change, also a theme of this combined conference. it will bring together 400 speakers, 900 exhibitors and 60,000 disciplines from 130 countries. our chief international correspondent from southeast asia is there. festival comes at a time when fintech activities
are on the rise. increase -- what are the implications of policies and what does it mean? let's get more. bright and early the first speaker. what are the critical trends you are seeing in terms of technology and technological advancement impacting central banks? the trends are very clear and it is a huge -- seeing these days. if you think about the main functions, payment, lending, as it management or insurance, each of them are fully affected by the new technology. either related to artificial orelligence or to blockchain two -- any of the advances in the market is transforming the way we provide finance in this
services. ourinda: companies are starting -- if the 4% increase, even more, how do you regulate such activities when you might not even know of the existence of? is one of the main challenges because the financial sector population is based on industries. it is financial regulation for banks, insurance, capital markets. there is no regulation by activity. fin tank -- they are not as that managers but they can play this with a completely different standpoint. therefore what we need is a different approach. we need an approach that can be to anyr implemented player that is providing this type of activity. we don't have an international standard which can be followed.
this is why all of the exchange commissions are trying to find out what is the best way we can use to regulate these activities assuming they are not [indiscernible] o'er the players we were used to. , so whereno consensus are we in the conversation and what are the risks if there is no consensus? alfonso: there is a lot of work but it has been done [indiscernible] context meaning in -- all the different centers. trying to bring all of the business together. when you regulate one of these industries, to provide one activity, how do you regulate [indiscernible] is it regulation that should be applied to banks or capital market players? involve makent to
this new regulation for activity apply to different industries. it is not easy and it is needed to bring all of the standards what is together. the role we play at the world bank is trying to make all these international practices known by other countries. they are looking at each other and seeing if the way to go is the way china has regulated or the way mexico has, which is different. when i am in any african country and they say what is the right forum, mexican or chinese, what is the best practice i should keep in mind? haslinda: there is an emergence of digital currency. the libra has been under a lot of scrutiny and there has been no consensus whether or not it should be shutdown down. what is the world bank view?
alfonso: there are stable point , related tor issues financial inclusion, gross payments. it is a big topic. we know with different objectives to reduce the cost of -- 3%, today close to 7% and stable point can play a role. i think we are still learning and we are still -- there are many risks associated with the stable coins which need to be thought very carefully before thinking we are ready to use this type of new stable coins. haslinda: what is your take on if libra should be pinned down before letting innovation take off? is -- wei think it need to think how we can do it better. how can we really ensure we have the opportunities it brings without increasing the risk of?
not even the promoters of libra knowledge. haslinda: the questions are real toause libra is designed promote financial inclusion. to what extent do you see the digital world and development we see now being able to address financial inclusion? alfonso: this is an important question. if you think what is the main beneficiary of fintech i would say inclusion and competition. at the end of the day fintech can provide me access or not. a better way or can reduce the cost of doing finance for those already a bank but face pricing constraints. if we think about fintech since it will provide easy access --
that is why in africa it is important. it is amazing the evolution in sub-saharan africa. the bond, the number with a mobile banking account has gone from 7% to 24%. the number of people -- it is only mobile money. if you look at the other factors of activities, the impact is significant. the impact on access and inclusion is very important. in terms of competition at the end of the day you will create much more competition which is more needed in some markets and can reduce cost. important things to make sure this developments to only provide access but also reduce the cost of finance and therefore the consumer will benefit from this. haslinda: mark carney, or of the boe, suggest or made a controversial proposal saying we should have a digital reserve
currency. what is your take? does it seem viable? everything has changed fast. one year ago we were talking about stable coins. they didn't exist. all differentg things. today we are talking about stable coins. next year i don't know what will be the topic. maybe it is as mark carney said. we will end up in a situation which this will be the new modus operandi. a work in progress. alfonso garcia from the world bank, we are coming to you from the fintech festival. we will be here all day long. kathleen: what a great guest to take off with. alfonso garcia. we will have plenty more big
interviews from the singapore fintech festival including twin is -- from twitter and from transferwise. let's get to first word news. su: we start with a clean up in hong kong. it is clearing up after a 24th straight weekend of unrest. your guests was fired at a shopping mall and subway services were disrupted by protesters. of protests have hong kong -- undermined hong kong. the city has fallen into recession for the first time since the crisis. the latest data showing economic activity fell more than 3% and it is expected to have fallen further since then. alibaba's money spending singles enjoyed a red-hot start. there were 1600 billion dollars of orders in the first 90 minutes. an estimated half billion shoppers around the world are expected to take part in the
sale. alibaba recruiting taylor swift and chinese superstar jim. it will offer a picture of consumer demand in china in the slowing economy. saudi aramco's ipo is set to itsch next week, but recently filed prospectus shows a risk of global oil demand peaking in the next few decades, leveling off around 2035. they will allow investors to bid for shares next sunday but it is size -- it hase not revealed the size of the stake or pricing range. they don't know what valuation is expected. investors will balk at the original $2 trillion target. the christmas shopping experience may more expensive this year at least for high-end ispping venues where santa
involved. -- $2500s limiting this festive season. families get 10 minutes with santa. harrods is expected to make $100,000 from its grotto in the run-up to christmas. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. ♪ groupen: dbs third-quarter profit rose more than expected on loans and trading income. our team leader joins us from singapore. good earnings in spite of issues. reporter: exactly. it is a good set of numbers if you are looking at the net profit number. it came in at singapore dollar
$1.63 billion. it is a 15% rise from a year ago. if you look at the bad loan than it is 1.5%, better 1.6% a year ago. despite the challenging environment, the ceo said he expects loan growth to be similar next year and one number everyone is looking at is the net interest margin. the number was 1.9%, one basis point lower than three months ago. it is the smallest decline among singapore banks. it is rate news, but the dbs ceo did mention he expects the yuan to decline seven basis points next year. pretty robust set of numbers and we will be speaking with that ceo later today. dbs is the last of the singaporean lenders to announce a result. what was the earning season
like? lianting: it is a mixed picture. eat -- theyboth both beat estimates. one of them had a good showing but the other on the other side saw a 6% decline in earnings. that is because of long provisions including a one-time charge in the indonesian unit. all three banks mentioned saw a decline in net interest margin. dbs. a good number for all three of them saw for that reason looking to expand wealth management because of a rise in rich asians. and the headwinds of a slowing in singaporeth might put pressure on credit growth next year. the singapore gdp growth is 1%,cted to come in 0% to
pretty low number. thank you so much. the resultsussing with the man himself, the dbs german joining us live from the in tech festival later today. breaking news crossing the bloomberg when it comes to the mtr subway service in hong kong. the train service disruption will be seen on the east rail line. citing obstruction on the tracks and damaged train equipment for service disruptions on the east rail line according to its website. also saying extra travel time is required on one line as well. that is pertinent to our viewers in hong kong commuting today. will have the minutes from the bank of japan's october 30 meeting.
hays.en: i am kathleen haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts. let's look at the u.k., conservatives trying to undermine the opposition labor party saying spending terms of cost one trillion pounds over five years. ludicrouscalled is a piece of tory fake news. joining us is our next guest. the brexit or u.k. general election focus continues. implications for sterling, there has got to be -- you look at options markets.
>> there is a lot of uncertainty. this could be one of the most volatile elections in a long time. brexit is the number one and not the only topic. sterling has been relatively quiet. closer to the election and we start to see more polls coming out, there could be volatility for the pound. you are not seeing much upside. the risk does hit with the brexite, if we see a stance and outside starts to look more and more likely. the downside risk is stronger. one dollars and $.30 seems to be where it is. nick: depends on follow-up from the election. there is a danger i feel we get through the election and still have the status quo the last three years. we are no closer to some solution. we will get some sort of correction in the pound.
hays in newthleen york. rafael bostick spoke exclusively to us, the president of the atlanta fed, and he said he wasn't on board with the rate cut. >> done a fair amount of accommodation, we have moved twice. it was my view we should have let that go and wait and see how it plays out. there is more need for accommodation, we could act at that point. kathleen: he is the president of the atlanta fed. what does it mean for the dollar? a lot of officials not signaling more but there were people who didn't want to cut when they did. it is an interesting situation at the moment. we are in the pause stage and that gives us more of a by on dip scenario for
the dollar. and this situation with china and the u.s. to take into consideration. we will be watching data and probably even closer than we have been, if it is possible. fed its nexte the impetus to move but we are pretty much on hold for december. it will be interesting to hear what jerome powell and the whole host of other fed speakers -- we might have a clearer picture i the end of the week where we are at. i feel they will hold fire for the medium-term and to see where we go. kathleen: we want to take a look at some of the things coming across the bloomberg. you want to give us machine orders? bunch of have a numbers, the core machine numbers are the main ones, a
major leading indicator of investment and in sentiment, business sentiment in japan. the number is a contraction month on month 2.9%. that is worse from the gain the survey was expecting. there was a contraction in august as well. year on year 5.1%, worse than the 8.1% we were expecting. year on year it was a contraction of 14.5%. ugly set of numbers and not the improvement we were hoping to see given we would have expected to see demand related to the recovery efforts following the typhoon. into the this plays minutes from the bank of japan meeting.0, 31st they signaled they were ready to ease if they had to but there were no steps being taken yet. seeing, one risk
for price momentum has not increased. we don't need to do anything. price momentum getting 2% inflation target, it is a summary they are releasing. one boj member saying it is vital to continue to watch for risk to the momentum. that is all we have so far, not a lot to go by but it does seem to suggest they are at the same place they have been for a while. go to the negative rate, which the bank of governor -- bank of japan governor said. others are keeping fingers crossed something will happen. they are already in stimulative territory. it has been a tough situation for the boj. for the yen i don't think we will see instant reaction from the data although the data was in good. , ands been largely driven
we take the central bank considerations into what we are looking at the yen levels. we are seeing a lot of yen selling on the back of global growth prospects increasing on the back of sort of falling in the u.s.-china relationships. it will be a more key driver of the yen than what we are getting from the boj. in this short segment we have got two of the largest central banks, the fed and boj and similar synergies -- messages you have got conflicting opinions on both of them and they need more reassurance from data. japan, you are going to be looking for some sort of extra stimulus from the boj. what method it comes in, whether increasing qe, which we have seen so many times, that could stimulate the market. we have had a decent run to the downside for the yen against the
dollar and the crosses. there could be a contraction of that move or correction into the year-end. the main driver of that will be the global growth prospects. that is largely tied with the u.s.-china situation rather than what we are hearing from the boj. cofounder.exchange more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
asia. this is daybreak i am haidi stroud-watts. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. bhpness flash headlines, says its project in australia have potential growth for oil division from the mid-20 20's. in a filing they said the oil unit can achieve average annual volume growth as much as 3% in the coming decades. they see a potential oil supply
gap of 50 million barrels a day by 2035 and the possible price correction in the middle of the next decade. the president of a top chinese coal body said imports will be held below 300 billion tons which suggests the pace of shipments this year could kill off in the last two months. it hints at a cap on expectations for subsequent years. china tries to control imports to help local miners limiting the amount of competing call. -- coal. this man launched the carrier in 1996 and held the reins of the sprawling business empire. province, he went from hawking peanuts to a fortune of 3 billion u.s. dollars.
>> good morning, i am caroline hyde in sydney. asia market have just opened for trade. >> i am kathleen hays. welcome to day break, asia. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org >> our top stories this monday, rising food costs and falling factory prices leaves china's leaders with headaches amid new doubts about a trade detail. saudi aramco moves one step closer to markets. and the price is right for
alibaba. singles day is off to a scorching start as consumers around the world look for bargains. >> let's take a look at how some of these major asian markets are opening, particularly as some information comes in for them to die jils. u have the nick -- the knick -- the nicka and the topix both up. we just got the opinion from the bank of japan. nothing surprising revealed except there does seem to be a tilt maintaining price momentum. you can see the japanese yen versus the dohar, not moving much, 109 .21 is still weak enough on the yen side to make the bank very happy. we have a small move in the jgb with the 10-year yield. the bank is pleased that it is not so close to the lower end .02 range.is
other markets are opening up. korean stocks down a bit. a fractional move so far. let's see if that gets bigger because we just got that news that korean exports in the first 10 days of november were down 21% year over year. chips exports, this is where people have been hoping to see in relief. they fell 33% in the first 10 case of the month. this is a release we are not used to seeing. meanwhile, look at australia. kind of a sunny opening following the move higher in the u.s., up a half percent, about 36 points. new zealand on the up side a quarter point there. 25 points and that big bank of new zealand meeting in a couple of days, closely watched by investors in new zealand and around the world. >> i would have to say su. time to go to you. >> thank you you.
we are going to start in spain, where elections are being held for the second time this year and the fourth time in as many years. however, the election results are unlikely to break the political logjam. the prime minister is expected to win, but his socialist party likely fails to gain an outright majority. sanchez's decision to call an election in the aftermath of the jailing of separatists may have driven some voters toward the far right party. in bolivia, the. has resigned. this after the army called him to go amid a wave of street proest its. morltse had already agreed to call a new election after the orioles of american states set marred by s vote was by serious irregularities. fourth ed a claimed a
victory. >> extra several times is 24th straight weekend of unrest. tear gas was fired at a shopping mall as protestors gather inside multiple districts. six months of unrest has seen hong kong fall into recession for the first time since the global financial crisis. an alibaba's money spinning singles day enjoyed a red-hot scorching start. there were more than $60 billion of orders in the first 90 minutes, an estimated half billion shoppers around the world are expected to take part in the sale. with alibaba recruiting taylor swift and chinese superstar g.e.m. to boost sales. singles day will offer a picture of the strength of consumer demand in china in the slowing economy. global news 24 hours a day at tick-tock on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists
in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. we just had that summary of opinions from the bank of japan a few minutes ago. one board member saying policy makers should seriously prepare for the next economic downturn. a bloomberg opinion columnist joins us now. dan, is the downturn in the economy likely to be similar to the previous slump following the tax hike in 2014? it seemed like they had been be cautious and taken the lessons learned when they implemented this subsequent one? >> it did feel like they had gone some way toward learning the lessons from 2014. the extent of the increase was smaller than 2014 and there were a lot of lights hung from this christmas tree. the money would be spent for education, et cetera and find its way back into the economy. but now we are looking at a downturn. it is unlikely to be as
significant at 2014, which was a huge downturn following the last increase. but it ♪ going to be nothing either. this increase was always contention. it was delayed a couple of times, and we are starting to see why. >> dan, you have to think that the global uncertainty is pretty great. we are looking at terrible nuns when it comes to the first 10 days of south korean imports, dropping 21.5% year on year. is this really time to test the consumer which globally has been the one bright spot. >> you know, on the one hand there is never a great time for a tax increase. japan has got a problem, though , with a population that is aging rapidly. they can't keep relying on the basis of the
taxation system. people are living longer. ople who are in their sunset years have less to save for and so will spend. so they had to broaden the tax base, bus you have to wonder about the timing. >> you look at the economy. it is a very tight labor market. the g.d.p. number coming out this week is supposed to be positive, maybe just below potential, although it could disappoint. it is not like japan's economy is falling apart. where do you see things going off track? you can see the consumption tax hike is going to do it. what do you see now about what maybe they have done wrong this year and how it is going to read to a bad outcome and more easing next year potentially? >> let's zero in on the last point. the bank of japan is just about the only central bank of consequence in the world that has not increased its easing
this year. this was an easing cycle led by china, who started relaxing things long before jay powell ever heard the word pause. people have continuously anticipated additional b.o.j. steps. they have not happened. they have not undertaken further easing. you will appreciate this as a student of central banking history. f you go back to a speak koroda made in a big industrial city, kind of like the detroit of japan late last year. that speech read like a reamble to a withdrawal of accommodation this year. instead, as 2019 ends, people are looking toward a situation where the amount of stimulus is maintained or they do something even more. it shows much things have changed and how blindsided the major central banks have been
this year about the policy direction they have had to pursue. >> i guess you have to say that they just didn't expect the trade war to take such a bite, and it has. dan, interesting perspective. thank you for joining us. he is one of our bloomberg opinion columnists. still ahead, alibaba big singles day shopping event. we talk about that with sean yang. >> coming up next, spring investments. sarah joins us to discuss the outlook of the markets this week. this is bloomberg.
casting doubts about the prospects of the trade deal. our chief asia correspondent joins us now. what kind of impact does china disinflation have to be exported globally? >> well, as you know, the p.p.i. story in china has been under pressure for sometime. it is in negative territory, and china is the world's biggest trading nation. they are exporting cheaper goods to the rest of the world. that puts pressure on china's competitors to bring their prices down, too. inflation is a global story now. it is emanating due to different factors around the world and china is playing its part in keeping a lid on global inflation. that is coming at a time when central banks are trying to rev up prices and demands and to get inflation moving well clear of that territory. we are back in that cycle of where we were a few years ago where by china's negative p.p.i. story isn't just a hit for china's economy because of what it does for prices and
debt services costs, but it means china is back on the radar as a source of global disinflation too. that is not great for policy make others around the rest of the world. >> the extreme decoupling when it comes to consumer price inflation and the price spike in particular what, does that mean for what policy makers can do at this point? >> you are absolutely right. there is a disconnect. there is correlation if your p.p.i. is heading one direction and the c.p.i. will follow. it is going through that because of the african swine flu and the impact that has had on pork prices. some economists would say it may be more sticky than anticipated. pork has an impact on the basket, so it can't be ignored. the bigger picture is it will make things easier for policy
makers. they will want to get credit flowing into the economy. when you have it going the way it is with pork, they will have to measure and temper how they go. the big question remains how durable that pork price spike will be and how long long-lasting it will have an impact in terms of how policy makers view their settings in the near to medium future. >> they need a c.p.i. that ex-cludes pork prices for a while. how does this play into trade this weekend? president trump tess i am not did go to remove all tariffs, but he didn't say he wouldn't remove some tariffs. when you look at the landscape for the economy and inflation in china right now, how is it impacting it? >> for a long time the narrative from some u.s. officials was that china's economy was quite weak and that is why they needed to secure a trade deal. a number of observers would agree with that. there are some signs of
stabblization at the same time though. the deadline in the economy remains at least grad wal and somewhat manninged, something of a manninged climb. the question really is whether or not the two sides can work out this back and forth over the tariffs as to when and whenever any existing tariffs will be unwound or not, and if they can gebhard get across the line with this phase one trade deal. clearly that will lift sentiment and take pressure off both manufacturing sides of each economy. if they stumble over the hurdle, then we are back to where we were a few months ago, and that is clear downward pressure on the u.s. and china economy. >> thank you. our chief as asia economics correspondent. or next correspondent says despite macrohead bands, chinese stocks are looking attractive again. sarah lein is portfolio manager with east spring investments,
and she joins us from singapore. i want to get back to this point to set the stage for looking at equities. equities don't have to have a completely solid economic background to look good. but when you look at china's economy and look at this chart from "bloomberg live" rather, chinese producer prices are weak again. and that is probably why industrial profits are weak again. we will get some more readings. p.m.i.'s are still weak for manufacturing. is it china -- does china need to be out of the woods on the economy to support your more positive you view of chinese stocks? >> not necessarily. i think as you point out, there are some blemishes on the macro picture in china. it is not a perfectly rosie picture by any means. but we still see a lot of opportunity in china, the whole condition summings story, demand, strong growth. it is not necessarily the high
growth we have had in the past, but it is still pretty good, especially relative to other parts of the world. we do think there is opportunity in china. we are being very selective about how we play china, as you mentioned. e are very much focused on valuations. we are being careful not to overpay for that growth. where we think the profile ooks pretty strong going on. it is very much stock specific and very ideasyncraticic and not necessarily representative of the broad macropicture if you will. >> that is how you make mobius, i guess. can you give us some of the names that look good to you, or at least the industry kind of spots they occupy? >> yes. we are looking at the financials. insurance, for example, is an important area for us at east spring, that we are playing pretty heavily. that is a domestic story. we are looking at property.
we are looking at areas, industrials, which runs the if gamut of many different types of businesses. but to tap into the whole infrastructure story and growth story. there is a lot of different ways of playing that through the industrial space. the good thing about the chinese market is that it is so prod, it is so diverse, there sore many different sectors and industries that you can play on the consumer side that aren't directly consumer but tap into that whole consumer demand story that we are trying to get access to. >> and of course it is alibaba singles day, and we are looking keenly at that for supportive evidence that the chinese consumer continues to go from strength to strength, particularly when it comes to the online sector. what about the yuan? how does that play into your expectations given the close core collation with emerging market stocks engine? >> i think the yuan is very
much dependent on what you see on the trade front. we have seen it strengthen a bit. if there is any sort of progress on this phase one trade deal, any sort of even a skinny deal that gets made, i think that is supportive. but as we see, whenever there is headwinds to that trade, diplomacy or any sort of trade resolution, that is when we start to see it weaken. it is very contingent on trade in our view. >> the yield will continue? >> i think so. we have been seeing a lot that have across the board, whether it is on the public side or the private side. one of the areas that we have seen tremendous client interest in this year has been real estate. we have seen the property strong n asia have been this year. we are still seeing very good
demand, very strong interest and trying to find ways for clients that we can play the real estate store through bonds and infrastructure, diversifying that exposure so that client can tap into that yield story that is so important. >> sarah, always great to have you. sarah lein, perspective manage her. joining us from singapore. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know in your edition of day break. it is on your terminals, also available on the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. this is bloomberg. ♪
join the team. we are told alibaba plans to start taking investor orders on friday. the timing of the secondary listing may still change, but 2 could raise as much as $15 million u.s. tencent looks to make more games for the u.s. through artnership with nentedo. tencent is also aim to go step up its dominance of the chinese game mark and planning romance titles to appeal to younger female players. remember an independent be panel of flight safety experts are set to say the redesigned soft way for beoing is save. it was created after the joe torre was younded in march and has present add preliminary report and greed to changes that they are comb plinet with regulations but says more need
o be done before the m max can fly again. >> hong kong police have shot at least one protestor with a live round on monday morning outside a subway station. ere is dan in hong kong. a lot happening at once. many different sources. what are we hearing? >> well, there is a video of the event circulating on social media that shows a confrontation between the police officer and a group of protestors. it all seemed to unravel quickly based on the video, which shows the officer in a tussle with one of the protestors. then he takes out his gun and fires three shots in fairly quick succession. several protestors droned to the ground. apple daly is reporting that two teenagers were hit. details are still scarce. the police are not commenting yet on this, although certainly
this looks like tell escalate things today. this all happened because after this week of protests, protestors called for a general strike again to disrupt the commute. that is what led to the clash this morning. >> tv reporting that hong kong protestors were vandalizing a train station. the response of the police, should we see this as maybe a slight shift in how aggressive they are going to respond? should we view this as someone who lost control and shot his gun? >> it is probably way too early to make that determination here. it looked as if these were just traffic cops, maybe not properly trained. at one point the kospi was walking away and then seemed to confront the protestors. there didn't seem to be any organized formation, no apparent warnings. it all happened very quickly. it will be up to the police to
determine how exactly that happened. it is hard to say if this is a broughter shift. it doesn't appear that way, although we have seen live rounds fires on previous occasions. usually when officers are surrounded in some sense. but yeah, i mean the police overall have gotten pretty aggressive. they have been accused of abuse by protestors and by journalists. there have been reports of them just firing rubber bullets and tear gas into crowds of journalists to stop them from filming. so overall the police are under a lot of scrutiny here for their tactics, but this seems to be -- this is definitely one of the worst incidents we have seen in the months we have been following this. >> and dan, after so many months of escalating tensions and worsening violence, it doesn't feel like there is much hope of some sort of break through when it comes it a
compromise between the two sides? >> that is correct. there is really -- and part of that is because the protestors don't really have a leader. trying to negotiate with this group is very, very difficult for the government. we heard over the weekend again from officials in beijing saying essentially all the officials in hong kong must be loyal to beijing, and that means essentially hong kong will not be able to have two university suffrage where it could elect a leader who could stand up to beijing. that is really in line of what these protests are all about. reaching that point, these are fundamental diverageses. every time we have seen the protest start to wayne, we have seen incidents hike this that tend to ramp up the protests. today could be a very long day in hong kong. >> dan, thank you so much joining us. he is the asia government
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su: this is daybreak asia. more fallout in the u.k. from the brexit drama. moody's has cut its sovereign credit rating to negative outlook citing weaker ability to fight policy because of uncertainty over brexit. this comes at the start of an election campaign and agency notes increasing inertia and paralysis in parliament. the leading political parties are fighting for votes, promising higher government spending. a state of emergency in the australian state of new south wales where brushfire risk has
reached catastrophic levels. three people were killed and 150 homes destroyed over the weekend as fires burned through areas rendered exceptionally dry after drought.r cooler weather eased intermediate pressure but this is expected to worsen as the weather turned strike. -- drier. now the powerful cyclone that hit bangladesh and northeastern india. it has killed 14 people. hundreds of thousands have been moved to safety. the same wind dashed sustained winds up to 120 kilometers per hour and will drive a sea surge up to incredible levels. decideysia a court will later monday if the prosecution has made its case against former
in the one mdb scandal. he denies wrongdoing and the judge will rule on if charges will be struck out or if the case should proceed. they said he was part of a premeditated criminal breach of trust which saw billions of dollars plundered from 1mdb. expensive, high-end shopping venues where -- limiting visits to the christmas grotto. looking at the equivalent of $2500, where families get 10 minutes with santa. harrods is expecting to make $100,000 from this in the run-up to christmas. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. ♪ lines we are getting crossing now, the chinese university of hong kong suspending classes on monday according to -- unrest and violence continues early in the morning. looking at live pictures of the host station outside the station where we had violence, hong kong police firing three live rounds this morning, hitting two teenagers according to the apple daily. protesters disrupting subway weekend of the violets. 88 people being arrested. mtr operation which runs the trains suspended part of the easter rail line. saying there were instructions to train tracks and train equipment had been damaged. we had a weekend of protests in
hong kong after police fired warning shots, clashing with demonstrators. most -- molotov cocktails being thrown and the death of one student during a recent protest adding more to these tensions. we are waiting to hear details about the shooting of teenagers this morning after a hong kong police officer fired three live rounds outside of the station where you are watching live pictures. peak inil demand could two decades. that includes the prospectus for the saudi aramco ipo. previouslyials dismissed the threat. su keenan has been reading it more. su: it was filed saturday and the big offering is going to take place a week from today. what is fascinating, the
forecast indicates peak demand risk which could happen as early as 2035. look at some of the data points which are in the filing. this is looking at peak demand coming as soon as 2035. ihsfiling site is a market -- a well-known consultant which saudi aramco is saying is reliable. by including in the prospectus this forecast, their clothes -- calling global investor attention to the risk. total and others have should concernshave stated very lower-cost producers, aramco's market share may rise a demand -- they can produce we will cheaper and in the bearish case, demand peaking late 2020, the market share 20%. rise 15% to
the projections from the prospectus show this. oil demands would be lower in 2045 from 2040. with oil coming down in the past year it is one important note going out and it will be interesting to see how investors process all of this. lots of questions over the valuation of aramco. su: this is one of several questions. there are others we don't know. the potential buyers are left in the dark how much of this stake will be put up for sale and what it would be priced at. all of it is still up in the air. the ipo offering is said to be a record, one of the largest ever. it will start next sunday. theof the things we know is
aramco executives have kind of dismissed the peak demand earlier. when they had the filing six months ago, relating to the bond, they had downplayed it. let's go in the bloomberg. we talk about valuations with respect to the bond dividends, they are talking about a valuation around one points $6 trillion. other estimates have been $1.1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. investors question if it is correct. the questions will be more intense as the countdown to the sale takes place. ipo washe aramco brought up at the abu dhabi conference over the weekend. manus cranny spoke to the head of india's largest refiner and asked the chairman how important and significant this aramco ipo will be.
becausee comfortable they are going ahead with the ipo, definitely will provide for investingion heavily in india and we are looking for a large project with them in india. so i am looking at very positive. towhat would it take for you take a portion of aramco stock? would you? predominantly we had been a major investor in the country -- we have have seen an overseas presence in business also. we have massive plans for our service in the country itself, including the refinery expansion. in theuation going ahead biofuels, to a certain extent electrification and battery manufacturer also. [speaking simultaneously]
we find their other commitments -- global oil of the industry, how important is this? >> it is extremely important. it provides a lot of confidence that there are stakeholders along with the largest player in the business. it also gives more freedom to saudi aramco, which they explained earlier. i am sure it will provide them more flexibility. for the trade, i find it positive. >> how important is it for india as a nation that the trade disputes between the united states and china come to a substantive conclusion? india, part of
the globe, but we have seen the global slowdowns getting back to -- no country can remain in isolation from the slowdowns. these are large countries and economies. has impacted them. we have seen it impact of the indian slow down also. >> has it stopped you from making decisions? have you pulled back from any major decision? >> not exactly. would say not only the trade wars -- a couple of other incidents we are seeing including the saudi attack, see suchtack, we can situations in a negative way, also there are positive signals. in spite of such an incident the market stabilized quickly. so it strengthens the trade happening today. in spite of the large production
[indiscernible] for a short while but the market did not panic. it shows a tremendous maturity today. kathleen: the indian oil chairman. if you are away from a screen, you can find in-depth analysis and the days big newsmakers on bloomberg radio. it is broadcasting live from our brand-new beautiful studio in hong kong. you can listen by the app, bloomberg radio plus or bloombergradio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪ m. this is bloomberg. ♪
what is the significance when it comes to singles' day this year in particular? we are watching the health of the chinese consumer. selina: is the 11th annual shopping bonanza. it is the first since jack ma step down and handed over the reins. importantvery bellwether for alibaba and the health of consumer sentiment in china. so far from the numbers consumer sentiment is holding up and staying brilliant in spite of .he water slow down $16 billion in transactions volume in the first 90 minutes. i am watching the numbers, surpassing $22 billion, on pace for the record. taket to point out we will this with a grain of salt given the numbers don't directly translate into revenue or profit.
even the numbers and its recent quarterly results that beat expectations, it shows alibaba is able to outpace consumer strength and digital commerce sales as they push into lower tier cities and investing in adjacent markets. for the impact -- consumer sentiment, deals draw the people, forget the trade war. there were concerns there could be boycotting of u.s. brands. there was something from a report saying according to that, they were going to reconsider purchasing from u.s. brands as a result of national loyalty, price quality or other reasons but we haven't seen any proof of that yet. so parts one of 80 or
of a list of firms that achieved more than $100 million in the first hour there is the top countries selling into china as a result of singles day. alibaba is heading against the risks that the trade war turns for the worst. plansre continuing with to ipo in hong kong and could raise $15 billion this -- billion. this provides a buffer if the calls from u.s. lawmakers to decouple the economies and limit investment flows into china, if they come to fruition -- there on the extreme case to do list chinese companies in the u.s. the hong kong ipo could help them shield against the risks. kathleen: thank you so much. our china correspondent. let's get more perspective. sean yang is from blue lotus capital advisors, joining us from shenzhen.
we were showing video. this has to be the biggest retail extravaganza, show that anybody puts on. at the end of the day people questioned what it really means for the bottom line if they have to do a lot of discounting to have the massive sales. that for the discount or for alibaba, for the platform, they don't take too much from the product. mainly because they have better bargaining power. you look at other players in the useet like tdd or j.d., the one [indiscernible] to highlight that. they will take some discounts for the customers. but for alibaba, as well as the topline growth well, people
should not worry about the prices. kathleen: the trade war has taken a big toll. we have seen the economy slowing, expected to slow more next year. the that start to eat into 11-11 singles' day especially if the smaller competitors get growing? >> they have a good opening. if you look at how long they have reached $100 billion, it is 43 minutes faster than last year, it is good. on the other hand you are right. alibaba growth is larger and it is difficult to continue its previous growth feet. last year the double 11 growth was 27 year on year.
then this year i think that is like low 20's or something. that means it is slowing down. considering other social e-commerce platforms coming to this market, i think the most significant impact is people don't really feel they need to on theot of stuff traditional e-commerce platforms in such a short time, because even for the daily time, you have a lot of promotions. that is another challenge for the baba steel management. haidi: i want to throw up a chart to take a look at the clip in e-commercesee and online retail. we have got china retail sales, the headline number at 8% loop. in the blue line at 20% is china retail sales, online and
physical goods. two or three times the pace of retail activity. the problem for alibaba, they want to be more than just an e-commerce company. they want to be in computing and logistics and off-line retail. does relying on a marquee event kind of gos' day against that strategy moving beyond just e-commerce post jack ma? >> i think so. one of the most important things actuallytoday is that china off-line is suffering more pressure while online retail creating share from offline markets. you look at alibaba, they have new retail which is a combination of online and off-line. we see that the offline partners
and others, the new retail stores are also promoting significantly double 11. is trying to do more cooperation with the brand. they are asking those brands to have some new products to be sold on double 11 which is different from 10 years ago. in the beginning it is a day for the people and merchants to clean up their inventory in offline markets. but now people have do promote more new brands online. they need to stay ahead of the offline products. it is a significant challenge demonstrating baba is taking share from offline markets. baba's plans for the secondary listing, hoping to
billion, ish as $15 this a good time to do it and it will -- and will it be an effective hedge given the uncertainty of u.s.-china relations for them to have a listing closer to the mainland? >> yes. there are a lot of uncertainties but to prepare for uncertainty. if you look at the macro issue half comparative landscape is changing, they do need money and cash to prepare even though they have had lots of cash. related earnings, baba changed the idea as they are pulling from the previous saying that we will save money this year instead they said we don't think we need to spend money in a lot of areas. we need you to spend smartly, they highlighted the competition with other companies and
logistics, the cloud computing expanding and as a core e-commerce -- all of strategies for babos new management, they need to be well prepared. early or too late. it is a good time for them to be in hong kong as long as investors have confidence in,. -- alibaba. haidi: great to have you. the deputy head of research joining us. still more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
police arehong kong concerned to people have been shot and injured by an officer. -- they have confirmed to people have been shot. but of the west rail line is suspended in addition to disturbances to the east rail line. one protester was shot during scuffles in hong kong. activists calling for the disruption to enforce a general strike, after a weekend of demonstrations. we had reports police fired three rounds, live rounds during a scuffle in one area of hong kong. you are looking at live pictures with police and protesters. reports following the shootings,
police firing tear gas into the crowds protesting against the live rounds being fired. that is a developing situation in hong kong. kathleen: our chief international correspondent haslinda amin is still live in singapore. what else do you have lined up? it is about the rise of fintech, how it is disrupting traditional industries like banking and prompting the largest central banks to come together and think about what regulations are needed. a great lineup, speaking to this insurance co-ceo, we will get her views whether the failure we work could affect other ipo's including one connect and also , a u.k.-basedwant
transfer wire cofounder who handles $5.1 billion in , whaters every month impact will brexit have on fintech and whether or not transferwise could be looking at an ipo next year. i don't forget this ceo, we will get his stake on the -- his take on the issues surrounding localization of data. that is the huge issue among banks right now. hope that you will continue to be with us. lineup. stellar haslinda amin at the fintech event. that is it for daybreak asia. coverage continues looking ahead at the start of trading in hong kong, shanghai. kathleen: stand by for bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
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welcome to bloomberg markets china open. i am tom mackenzie. here the headlines today. konglashes erupted in hong after a weekend of unrest. two people are shot and wounded as police fire live rounds. rising food costs and falling factory get prices leave china's leaders with a headache amid news out about a trade deal. and the price is right for alibaba. singles' day is off to a scorching start as consumers around the world look for bargains.