tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg November 15, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
meets the world of business. on the brief today, shawn donnan in washington on signs a trade deal with china may be coming together. on capitol hill, kevin cirilli on day two of public impeachment hearings, and damian sassower in new york on what political unrest is doing to the hong kong economy. shawn, let's start with you. another day, another new hope about a deal. shawn: we have been existing in the world of new hopes and false dawns for some time. we are in another day of new hopes, as you say. we are hearing from senior members of the administration, larry kudlow and wilbur ross that we are in the final stages of negotiations for this phase one deal. we also know from wilbur ross and from our sources that ambassador robert lighthizer, the u.s. trade representative, and u.s. treasury secretary
steven mnuchin are getting on the phone today with the top chinese trade negotiator to try and iron out more things. we are in this messy and game. endgame.essy we have been here before. we were here in may. this may still unravel. david: i heard we have not agreed to a deal on soybeans. you think if they were close to a deal they would've gotten that out of the way, at least. shawn: what we are seeing as they are talking about the difficult issues on the table. the fact those around the table now and are being wrestled with is usually a sign of the end game being afoot. on soybeans, it is not so much they are debating how much china is going to buy. it is debating the details of when china will buy and for how long. those are the details you will be ironing out to the end. spinning.h sides are
are they spinning in the same direction? it seemed like beijing was spinning in one direction and washington was spinning in the other. shawn: this been we get from both sides is both sides do a deal. we should keep in mind this phase one deal is a narrow deal. this will not change the economic relationship between the u.s. and china. in some ways it will repair some of the damage like the farm exports, the collapse of farm exports we have seen as a result of these trade wars. the real question is where these andtiations go afterwards how they tackle bigger issues, bigger structural issues in the relationship and whether they can. on that front, the trump administration is very positive about there being a phase two or phase three, possibly, and on the chinese side we keep hearing over and over they are quite skeptical they will have any success. inid: it means we will be
2020, which happens to be an election year, which may complicate it further. thanks to shawn donnan in washington. now we go to kevin cirilli on capitol hill in washington. day two of the public impeachment hearings. what did we learn today? kevin: the former ambassador outlining for the first time publicly her perception with regard to the state department and former new york city mayor with theiani's dispute state department as they negotiated with ukraine. in a series of testimonies, she laid out her case that she believes the state department was dismantled, not funded and key vacancies left open all around the world. she said her ousting last may has shaken morale within the agency. president is responding in real time, pushing back against that characterization in a series of two tweets while the hearing was going on. he says she was someone who was not taken seriously in any of her roles in her 33 year career at the state department as a
career diplomat. he also pushed back against the notion that posts were not being filled, saying he was saving taxpayer money. this is just day two of the public phase of the impeachment inquiry. from here, lawmakers on the house intelligence committee will go behind doors today to meet with david holmes, reportedly the individual who overheard president trump speaking to e.u. ambassador gordon sondland about an update with regards to ukraine resident zelensky's investigation into the bidens. that is what is at stake. i can also tell you that senior republican aides in the senate beenhat so far nothing has testified that would change their calculus should president trump ultimately be impeached and it go to the senate for a trial. as of now, this largely remains a partisan issue. david: that will continue for some time. one proceeding came to an end today. roger stone, a supporter of
president trump was convicted of lying. will that have any effect at all on the impeachment? has president trump insulated himself from mr. stone? kevin: roger stone was found guilty on seven counts by a federal jury in florida within the last 15 minutes. he was convicted of lying to congress, lying under oath to members of the house intelligence committee. he was also found guilty of witness tampering as it relates to his connection with being a conduit with wikileaks. in that two week trial, there -- as well ases rick gates, who was paul manafort's top deputy. his being found guilty is a warning sign to all of the individuals at the state department as well as others who have been called to testify before the house intelligence committee, both publicly and privately. david: that is a good point.
thanks to kevin cirilli reporting from capitol hill. now we will turn to damian sassower talking about hong kong. things are not looking good hong kong. there a lot of public disturbances affecting the economy. damian: the past week, the violence has caused a complete dislocation in the front end of the interbank lending curb. -- lending curve. we see three-month yield differentials rise the highest since 1999. this inversion has caused a one-week rate to search to 4%. that is a 300 bit move in the last month alone. you've see hong kong has lowered its full-year 2019 gdp forecast, the first full year of contraction on record since the global financial crisis. what is this doing for the economy? we have had massive cancellations. , the showing of matilda, fireworks, everything is getting canceled that is bad
for tourism revenue that is what hong kong relies on heavily. david: they need the tourists and now is not a good time to go to hong kong for a visit. what effects does this have beyond hong kong? where do we see it show up? is it in beijing damian:? damian:that is a great point -- damian: that is a great point. beijing has doubled their police force in hong kong and they still have the huge gathering of troops monitoring the movements. if beijing were to intervene directly to hong kong, all bets are off. we know the u.s. congress has passed the bill and we know trump is against that. david: now we want to get a check on the markets and for that we turn to abigail doolittle to find out how all this is affecting the markets. it is a happy friday so far. abigial: we have record highs across the board for the major averages. the s&p 500 up the sixth week in a row, the longest weekly winning streak since 2016. the bulls are in charge. as far as the conversations you
have had, there is a bullish one and a bearish one. the bullish one is trade. as you point out, and as shawn donnan was saying, it is a new dawn once again. we get new headlines every day. right now the bulls are going with larry kudlow and the fact that there could be a phase one deal soon. encouraged about that going into the weekend. on the other hand we have the situation in hong kong, and we look at the weekly performance for the hang seng and shanghai composite, down sharply, the worst performance in month. not affecting u.s. markets, but it is a globally tied together market system. from a fear standpoint, there could be a negative impact. bonds rallying on the week. it speaks to the degree of uncertainty there. david: thanks a much to abigail doolittle. happy friday. we turn out to mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. mark: as kevin cirilli told us moments ago, the former u.s. ambassador to ukraine says her
removal was based on fabricated accusations promoted by rudy giuliani. she believes the trump's dealing with ukraine have thrown american policy into disarray. she told the hauch impeachment inquiry panel that an episode has given shady interest the world over a lesson into how to get rid of american envoy that does not give them what they want. roger stone has been convicted of lying to congress, obstructing a congressional probe and witness tampering. the guilty verdict comes after deliberations began yesterday. the federal case against stone including evidence that president trump knew about wikileaks plans to reduce emails damaging to his rival, hillary clinton. prosecutor said stone lied to congress to protect the president. a federal judge has ruled the u.s. government was correct in saying an american-born woman who joined the islamic state was not a u.s. citizen. she was born in new jersey to a diplomat from yemen and grew up
in alabama. in 2014, she left the u.s. to join the militant group, apparently after becoming radicalized online. while she was overseas, the government determined she was not a u.s. citizen because her father was a diplomat at the time of her birth and her passport was revoked. democratic congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez and jan schakowsky are voting on legislation that would tax top individual incomes that 59%, nearly double the highest current u.s. tax rate. it would also increase capital gains rates to equalize them with income taxes and move to a market to market system. that means individuals would pay taxes annually on the appreciation of their investments, real estate, and business holdings. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. bloomberg. david? david: thanks very much.
david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. the markets have been up and down on encouraging or discouraging news about the u.s. china trade negotiation. there's also the question of how uncertainty can affect the 2020 elections. we welcome matt gorman, former director of communications for the republican communication ,ommittee, and david goodfriend
former deputy staff secretary to president clinton and now president of the goodfriend group. both are joining us from washington. let me start out with you, matt. how worried should the president be about what we see as we look across the country? it turns out the effective trade uncertainty is not just hitting the farm belt. matt: it is certainly not. i read that both general electric and honeywell have seen price increases passed on the tariffs. from a purely political sense, take away the effect on the economy, which is certainly important, it is something the president needs to have as he goes into 2020, but also, he needs to show he can get things done. , a bowl ofunny way house democrats and president trump. they need the usmca to get --
david: if usmca does not get done right now, the democrats have a problem, don't they? to think i would like everybody believes in legislating in the traditional sense, but in this case what started out as a bipartisan issue -- problems with trait where you had someone like sharad brown and donald trump both saying the same thing, that has diverged, not just in reality but in the minds of the american voter to the point where donald trump owns the success or failure of the trade negotiations or trade war he started. i do not think there is a true separation in the minds of most americans. when it comes to north america, that is one thing, when it comes to china that is another. they are experiencing what
happens when there's a trade war, whether chinese good or mexican goods or canadian goods. the notion that the buck would stop with nancy pelosi, if there was somehow a failure to enact a replacement treaty, that is wrong. i think that is how people perceive it. i think this is donald trump's issue because rather than trying to embrace democrats on the left to of been saying the same things and labor unions saying the same things for decades, he has said i will do better than all of the idiots who proceeded me and therefore he owns it. i do not think it is differentiated in the minds of voters. david: one of the things they're spending up time on on capitol hill other than passing the usmca is the impeachment hearing. could this play to the advantage of republicans, because their reports this could go well into next year when a lot of senators want to be on the campaign trail in the primaries? matt: certainly. that is one of the things we have not talked about at length
yet. it will benefit folks like mayor pete and joe biden, while folks like elizabeth warren and bernie sanders have to sit in the chamber of the senate eight hours a week, essentially for a hearing that will not change any minds, it will not go anywhere. when you look at the polling for impeachment, as of right now, it tracks fairly closely with where we were in the popular vote in 2016, were a lot of polls show the popular vote in 2020. this is not a legal fight, it is a political fight. the point is both sides can change the numbers. absent something that folks can grab onto, folks that do not follow politics as close as we do, that is going to be essentially stasis for both parties when it comes to this issue. david: if trade becomes an important issue in the primaries , does it benefit some democratic candidates over others? they all seem to be pretty much
with president trump saying we need to be tough on china. david g.: you have on the far left candidates who have neutralized the trump position by saying i have always been here. look at what bernie sanders was saying in the 1980's about trade agreements. he says it is just a bunch of pro-corporate agreements negotiated with corporations at the table. he has immunized himself, as has elizabeth warren. it may be tougher for vice president biden to differentiate himself. even there, i think the president owns these issues. i want to talk about something we have seen in american politics recently. it is a big change. it used to be republicans owned college-educated suburbanites, college educated white women. that was a big strength of republicans. that is gone today. today as we saw in the most recent elections in pennsylvania and virginia, those voters have swung decisively for the democrats. the trade issue is a good illustration of why.
there are people who believe this is destructive and not helpful they're not being taken care of by their erstwhile party, the republican party. translate that into the politics by the democrats and you will see a further movement by college-educated voters towards democrats. david: let me and wrapped with you to pick up on that subject of the suburban voters, perhaps suburban women and turn to a different subject, which is gun legislation. we had another tragic shooting in california. this is format. do we need to be concerned -- this is for matt. we need to be concerned? we had a sheriff who said this about it. >> this tragic event happens too frequently. across the nation i hear no more, no more, no more. when are we going to come together as a community in santa clarita and the rest of the communities to say no more? david: we initially thought republicans would be resisted gun violence. they need to be worried about
this and how it will play with suburban women? matt: i am intimately familiar with this because i was at the nrc seed to handle all of the house republican races in the 2018 cycle. i was there for a number of other shootings. i saw the pulling myself. the biggest dip we saw in the generic ballot was in the immediate aftermath of parkland. what parkland did was brought gun control -- i would not say into the top issue for suburban voters, but top five. no one was voting on it, per se, but it enabled democrats for once in a generation to go on offense on guns. it was essentially a political type of virtue signal to suburban voters. it is not going to be the issue most suburban voters vote on. i've seen the polling. it is maybe one of three, or one of five. it will eventually cause democrats to go on offense on
this issue. the question is is it still as potent as it was after parkland, where you saw it was rare for the first time, you had kids coming out of the school at going on to tv cameras. there was a large part of where the polling was. that was not the case here. it needs to be broader in terms of how the amplification goes about this. david: many thanks to political panel. appreciate both you being here. that is david goodfriend and matt gorman, both from washington. retail sales rebounded slightly more than expected last month, but details show some signs of a pooling consumer to start the fourth quarter. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
and radio. i am david westin. time for the stock of the hour. jcpenney is surging 9% today after the long struggling retailer increased its profit forecast. i am not sure i would say the same, but -- i'm not sure i would see this day, but here it is. kailey: especially because same-store sales fell more than 9% in the quarter. when you put that aside, you are seeing signs things are starting to turn around. jcpenney has been doing a lot of things, changing things up in stores, and you're starting to see a chop in the bottom line. the loss has narrowed. -- is helping them boost their people. forecast. $400now say it will exceed
million. david: that may square same-store sales with total revenue. maybe they are selling things they're making more money off of even if they are selling less total. kailey: this is exactly what they have been trying to accomplish. investors are taking this as a sign they are making progress. the holiday season will be crucial for them to make sure these strategies are paying off. david: let's talk about the holiday season. there were retail sales numbers out that were encouraging and surprising to the upside. kailey: it was a rebound from the prior month, but if you backout autos and gas, they actually missed, they were only up .1%. that is where the bulk of the spending was. seven of 14 categories, you saw spending drop. that includes furniture and clothing, which does not bode well for the likes of jcpenney and its peers. you wonder whether will that pick up or is this a sign they will not spend so much in malls as we look to december.
david: it is all about the holiday season. we have any indications, good or bad? kailey: it is expected to be pretty solid. again, as we look the data, there are signs the consumer still spending, might just not be spending as much. might be seeing signs of cooling. david: you will keep us up-to-date. thanks to bloomberg kailey leinz. up next, jack ma warns we could be in for 20 years of difficult relations with china. what would that do for economic prosperity? we talk to the head of americans for prosperity, tim phillips. that is ahead on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
believes that the trump administration's policy has thrown american foreign-policy into disarray. at the second hearing today, your ivanovic ascribed her feelings after you learning about president trump grommets ms. zelensky regarding her performance as the u.s. envoy to ukraine. devastated upon, that the president of the united states would talk about any ambassador like that to a , and ithead of state was me. i could not believe it. she is going to do that go through some things. it did not sound good. it sounded like a threat. mark: when told that the president had tweeted more critical remarks about her as she delivered her testimony, she said it is "very intimidating." in southern california,
investigators are trying to uncover a motive for a 16-year-old who opened fire yesterday. the suspect took just 16 seconds to pull out the 45 caliber handgun, shoot five classmates, and then himself. two victims died and the suspect was last reported to be hospitalized in critical condition. the leaders of russia, ukraine, germany, and france will be meeting next month to settle the conflict in eastern ukraine that has killed 13,000 people. troop withdrawals and prisoner exchanges will be among the points of negotiations. announced then meeting today after months of diplomatic efforts to get all sides to agree on new talks. the months of protest have taken their toll on hong kong. the city is forecasting its first annual recession since the global financial crisis a ticket ago. the government says gdp will contract 1% in 2019 from last year. the outlook is in line with what
is viable in -- visible in hong kong streets. shopping malls, stores, and restaurants are either shuttered or on shorter hours. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. eisai usa and china relationship might be in some turbulence in 20 years, the next 20 years in may last. we have to be very careful. alibabahat was co-founder jack ma speaking to bloomberg television. we welcome tim phillips, president of americans for prosperity, an organization founded by larry koch. you heard jack ma. if he is right, what does that
do to the u.s. economy? tim: i think it is overstated. brazil and china had a big war of words for last couple of weeks may been cutting a lot of trade deal together. the president will often attack someone on twitter one morning and then working it out the next day. i am not advocating for that approach, but these things can turn on a dime, and i hope they do. this trade war has hurt our country, i see the farm sector, pork producers. we had a great tax cut reform package in our view in 19 -- in 17. this administration's efforts to roll back regulation is good. we should be seeing higher economic growth and we are seeing. the one reason we are not is this trade war. david: has the president set expectations too high?
has the president set expectations too high? he said that he would change the way china does business, including subsidies. can he settle for less than that? tim: interesting question. we would take issue with his approach. being tariff man is not a solution for the long-term. you are taxing american families and businesses. the approach is misguided. i do think they worry that if they cut a deal with china, the administration, that it could open them to the populist left. to blue-collar workers in the united states, the president claimed he would do one thing and he ended up going soft on china. there is a political equation here. that is one danger of escalating something like a trade war. then the stakes become high politically and can sometimes get in the way of getting a deal done to help country. david: as we go into an election year, can the president afford to have half a loaf?
many people think this will not deal with the larger issues. if the president does the damage that he has done, admits it to farmers, and says that we will do more later, will that hurt him politically in 2020? you have aically, if strong economy, you will then reelection. at the end of the day, by the time you get to october of next year, and economy humming at 3%, 4% growth will dramatically be more important to the president then whoever says i want this or that in trade. or 4% humming at 3% sounds pretty good but we are not there now. 2% is what we are being told. you think we can get back up to 3%, 4% by november? tim: let's end these destructive trade wars. we have government spending under control.
we have an economy doing ok, roughly 2%. we should not have a trillion dollars deficit this year, yet we are on track to do that. spending is out of control. if you think bipartisan is dead in washington, give them bloated spending bills. they will come together. you know what it does. it is not good for the country. david: what are you going to do about the issue? as i look at the candidates, i don't see anybody, republican or democrat, that says we are going to control spending. i don't see any deficit hawks. as you back certain candidates in the race is, how can you affect the race? tim: in the near term, trying to shine a light on these budget bills. the stopgap will will be voted in washington. it's a terrible way to do business. it is on the discretionary side. we want to shine a light on how destructive and wasteful this
is, all the cronyism, special interest in washington, tax breaks, rebates. shine a light on that in the near term. i hear people say discretionary is a tiny bit of the budget, you have to go to entitlements. but until you can get a handle on discretionary spending, you will never get to entitlement reform. david: what is not a fraction of the economy is health care, of gdp, and many people believe that is a tax on industry. the rest of the countries around the world are paying closer to 10%. that is certainly on the agenda for the democrats right now. one is a constructive approach? tim: a couple of things happening at the state level that offers hope. florida passed something that will lower cost, expand access to quality care for floridians. folks should took at that certificate of need reform that just happened. inopens up free health care
areas of florida which are often controlled by the health care industry, and they don't want new competitors. keep an eye on florida. it's an exciting opportunity to show lower health care costs, greater access to quality health care for all floridians. a lot of states are looking to florida to see how it works. david: are there any democratic candidates that you are looking sense, you think makes that we could see some support for them. do you see anybody out there talking sense to you? tim: we have said we are going to stay out of the 2020 race. david: what about the senate? tim: absolutely. there is somebody and in cory gardner from colorado. he is serious about immigration reform. on trade, he has avoided all of the demagoguery. leaders like that who do the right thing on issues and try to be constructive and get things done, that is who we are looking
for. another is david purdue in georgia. there are some good ones out there. david: the only ceo of a fortune 100. tim: what a shocking idea. david: cannot really get my head around the way that washington works. tim: he is the best mind on trying to get discretionary and entitlement spending under control. david: spoken like a ceo. always great to have you here, tim phillips. coming up, no matter who comes out on top next november, we all want to make sure the election was fair and regular. we talk with an expert, david becker, about what we need to do. that is coming up next. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm david westin. election security has become a big issue. reports of russia and others trying to influence how we elect our leaders. the center for election innovation and research is a nonprofit bipartisan organization working across the country with officials to make sure our elections are working properly and free of outside influence. we welcome david becker, executive director for the center. welcome, good to have you. give us a sense of where we are right now on election security, 2016.ed to 2018 and have we improved? avid b.: we have improved great deal in spite of the real threat coming from russia and other foreign adversaries.
the bipartisan senate intelligence committee, the mueller report all confirmed russia attacked us in 2016, attempted to interfere with our elections, infiltrate election infrastructure, and more importantly, they inundated us with this information about the election and the whole process, seeking to divide us as a nation and lose confidence in the process. there is no question they were pretty successful. that was a real wake-up call for us. since that time, the department of homeland security has really worked to partner with the states and local governments, all of whom are responsible for running elections in the united dates, to make sure that we will be secure. david: you said it, local governments. elections are run sort of like public schools are, at the local level. how can you coordinate across thousands of different elections? it is a process, there
has to be information sharing. the state and local election officials know much more about their voters and how their elections are run, boating times, polling places, what is on the ballot, all are different in every jurisdiction. november 3, 2020, we will not have one election, but about 10,000 small elections. that is also an advantage in the a lot of ways. it is a lot harder for a foreign adversary to attack 10,000 different offices than it is to attack maybe one office. david: you say we have made progress. do people feel we have made progress, feel confidence? if you look at polls, people are not in a panic about it, but a not insignificant number of people say they have doubts. david b.: a recent poll said about 40% of americans will not trust the election will be fair if their candidate loses. that's a problem. one of the challenges election officials have is they have to
address the real vulnerabilities that exist. they also have to convince voters that they should trust the election. it is a consensus recommendation that we have paper ballots. those are important to confirm the voter has seen it after they left, and still go back and count if we need to. those paper ballots and audits are important, but the truth is, on paper will vote ballots. that includes every voter in all of the battleground states, so we will have paper ballots and all of those states, audit ballots to confirm that the count was right as well. david: what is left to be done, does it require money? david b.: it requires a lot of money. there is no finish line with cybersecurity. we have to be ready to address the threat for the foreseeable future. it is not just by new recruitment and keeping it up to date, implementing cybersecurity around that equipment.
all of that is important and costs money. it is also hiring and training staff, paying the staff commends her and with what the private sector may pay them. that will require millions of dollars to do, and we should invest that kind of money, both from congress and state legislators, to make sure that states have the resources they need. david: there was an indication, the federal government told some local officials that there were attempts to interfere with the voting process. is there any reason to believe that any votes were miscounted as a result of that? looked at theave 2016 election more than any other in history, and we have yet to find any evidence that votes were altered. we know that the russians successfully got into the illinois database. we confirmed they were not able to ge change anything. it is likely those attempts were designed not to change anything but to get us to doubt our own
systems, so that we would lose confidence in the elections and those elected under them, the governance of our nation. twod: you talked about different ways in which foreign entities could interfere, one is how we count the votes, the other is this information, trying to change what people think when they go to vote. what is to be done about that? that is a much more difficult problem. david b.: much more difficult. i don't work so much in that area. up withy, it is wrapped a lot of legitimate first amendment concerns. one of the things i'm concerned about is this information as it relates to the election process. disinformation that says there are really long lines at polling stations when there are not, or directing people to the wrong place, or saying the machines are flipping votes. that is happening, originating in other countries as well as the u.s. it's important election
officials have the tools to combat that. we have heard reports from different countries around the world being affected often by russia, maybe not exclusively, but often. what do we learn from those? in england, there were reports, france. have we been able to learn from that to protect ourselves? david b.: what we have seen is some countries have developed very strong and transparent methods for combating misinformation. france, some scandinavian countries. it is still difficult. we have to build a fence around the entire process and they just need to punch a hole in the fence. we need resources to combat against that. the world's democracies have to come together. what we are seeing in the u.s. is not so much different from what we are seeing in the u.k., israel, where democratically elected governments find themselves paralyzed by attacks from autocracies. david: talk about the org chart.
who is the quarterback making sure we protect our election process? nothing more important than to know that our votes are counted correctly. david b.: traditionally, we have had 50 different quarterbacks. each state has a chief election official, often the secretary of state. those people are all working hard to work with their local jurisdictions, counties, municipalities, to make sure they have the tools they need to secure the election. requires asaid, it remarkable level of coordination. this is why it's been so important that the department of homeland security has partnered with the secretaries of state, state election directors, and work within those states it down to the local election officials to get the word out on how they can better secure their systems. david: given all you know, if tore was one thing to do
really protect our elections in 2020, what would it be? david b.: i will give you two answers. one is from the perspective of government. government needs to fund better paper-based election systems, require audits for those systems. we are moving toward that goal but there is still a way to go. from the voter perspective, as citizens, the best thing we can do is vote. pollyannat just some statement about democracy. election officials get a data point with each about they look at. if a foreign emissary has done something to that record, and done something to negatively impact the election process, we will know it. if you want to fight back against foreign adversaries, show up and vote. david: that is david becker. we will have more with him coming up at 1:00 on bloomberg radio. coming up, bloomberg news is reporting rudy giuliani is under federal investigation for
david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm david westin. trump's personal lawyer rudy giuliani is back in timeews yet again, this reporting that the former mayor of new york city is being investigated by the federal government for possible campaign-finance law violations and failure to register as a foreign agent. we welcome greg ferro who covers legal enforcement. is this a surprise? >> actually, no. ever since these ewl ukrainian characters were indicted last month, it was clear the government had been following them for almost a year or more, and that rudy was in their circle for much of that time.
they have a lot of material on rudy. the details that we reported are helpful to this, but we have known that rudy has been under scrutiny for quite some time. he is not the first person close to president trump that has been indicted. >> or the first lawyer. but has not been indicted, the investigated by federal prosecutors. david: paul manafort not registering as a foreign agent. what was rudy giuliani doing with the ukrainians? that heat we know is was an agent of influence. rudy was acting as the president's personal attorney, but he was acting as a shadow representative of the government as well. depending on how you interpret what happened in ukraine, there's a possibility of extortion, that rudy was trying to use influence to induce an action. there is also the logan act,
basically a u.s. person trying to get involved with foreign policy, except that rudy was supported by the president. david: according to bloomberg, rudy giuliani is under investigation. roger stone is not being investigated anymore. guilty now. what does that tell us about president trump's situation? stone is an interesting piece to the mueller investigation, but it is really bad optics for the president. everybody in his circle, or many people in his inner circle have gone down, mostly on lying. hearings are going on as we speak in congress about impeachment. it is a very bad look. onid: hearings are going with people testifying under oath, and this might be a useful reminder, you better tell the truth, because you could go to jail. greg: absolutely. this is a new thing in trump world.
the rules that apply during his business career where you can exaggerate, sell, promote, in this context, people will go to prison for telling lies. david: coming up, we will continue on bloomberg radio. illthe next hour, we w talk about a tale of bribes and bureaucracy. the floods in venice and why the city is partly to blame for the widespread damage. that is coming up on bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield. starts right now. coming up, investors patiently waiting for a phase one trade deal. big returns to the treasury market, yields retreating from three-month highs. u.s. credit delivering the second against week of issuance this year. we begin with the big issue. what is feeding investor optimism? >> it is all about trade. >> it is 100% a data issue. >> trade is becoming a secondary issue. >>