tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg November 20, 2019 10:00pm-11:01pm EST
this is ""bloomberg markets."." ♪ -- this is "bloomberg markets." ♪ shery: we are here at the second annual bloomberg new economy forum. . we are looking to the big conversations as we have trade uncertainty, unrest in hong kong, many challenges ahead. global leaders focus on all of these challenges. withve a guest joining us an exclusive interview. also the credit suisse ceo. really a busy day ahead. rishaad: just getting to you what's going on on the market. we have certainly risk not being put on the table. taking a look at these markets. the nikkei 2025, the hang seng. asian stocks have been spooked
after we had support for the u.s. -- from the u.s. congress for hong kong protesters. potential for confrontation. chinese officials waiting a trade deal. we got a glimmer, the vice premier was talking about being phaseent about signing a one trade deal with the u.s.. flummoxed by was the negotiating tactics of the other side. hang seng 1.5% down. the shanghai composite is also recovering. ms asia-pacific having its worst day in three months. mitigated by the news coming from the vice premier. a quick look at what's happening elsewhere. taking a look at how the needle has moved, 1.73.
more scope for interest rate cuts in australia, sending the 10 year yield down. soybean futures, exports for grains in the u.s. really sagging. we have seen a decline. that has been felt by what's going on with soybean and corn futures. they have been declining out of the last four sessions. nickel .9% down. this is a demand story. as we have a slowing global economy, much less of this will be required. it had been one of the star performers. territoryy now in bad after climbing 20% since the early part of september. that's what we have going on. 43 minutes away from the start of the session in india. onmanaged to get a gain wednesday. about half of 1%. nonetheless, the nifty futures
are indicating we may see weakness. that would be following the regional trend. they are moving to a more flat position. rupee, very little move for the indian currency. 10 year yield lurching low by a couple of basis points. 6.46% yield on that. moving along, let's get to new york and the first word news with su keenan. andwe will start with china the trade issue. china's chief negotiator cautiously optimistic about reaching an initial trade deal with the u.s.. he made the comment in his speech in beijing on wednesday night because of people present. he also told an attendee he is confused about the u.s. demands, that his confidence of an agreement can be completed nonetheless. his comments came before the u.s. house passed the bill that supports hong kong protesters,
which the president is reportedly likely to sign. the chinese vice president has told the bloomberg new economy forum in beijing that critics have abandoned what he terms a cold war mentality. making the keynote speech, he did not directly address the trade or criticize u.s. action on the protests in hong kong. he rejected criticism of china for the fault of others. pursue common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security, and reject zero-sum game and the cold war mentality. su: there are signs of recovery in singapore, where the economy expanded at its fastest pace. the final gdp readings showed annualized growth of two point 1% from the previous three months. that is far better than an earlier projection of 0.6
percent. the monetary authority says policy is appropriate at the current time, but it may change as the economy evolves. south korean exports poised for a 12th monthly decline as tech demand struggles and china continues to slow. shipments approach almost 10% from a year ago. china, south korea's biggest trading partner, dropped more than 8%. micronet sales account for the largest share of exports. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan, this is bluebird. -- this is bloomberg. shery: we are live at the bloomberg new economy forum in beijing, where leaders from the business and finance world are gathering to discuss key challenges. thenext guest runs
philippines' largest conglomerate. zobel de ayala ii, good to have you. so much to discuss. trade tensions on one hand, unrest in hong kong. is all of this sentiment being dampened around the world? is it having any impact on your business? >> it is making everyone former conscious about areas of inclusivity. inclusivity, social tensions, these are issues we have to take into account in our businesses. they are sensitive issues. these explosions happening all over the world are happening for a reason. continue toyou grow. despite the challenges globally. you have just expanded in the region. you acquired a stake in miramar. what is next? myanmar is ther
consumer demand taking place is phenomenal. .he philippines has grown we feel as a group, we want to tap into this spring happening in southeast asia. myanmar is the first step. we have operations in thailand and indonesia with subsidiaries. we are already moving. vietnam, as well. were excited about southeast asia, the markets, and there's an affinity in the region. we would like to continue overweighting our investments. shery: how are these countries being affected by this shift in supply chain away from china? we continue to see tensions with the u.s. >> the ships are taking place. over the last five or six years, everyone has had a china plus one policy in manufacturing. the philippines has been a net beneficiary. we have clients in the philippines. we have seen an influx of manufacturing, people moving out
just to balance out the equation. vietnam is a beneficiary, thailand, i think everyone has seen they need a china plus one model. southeast asia is a perfect venue for some of these manufacturing groups. shery: does that mean you will be moving into some of those countries benefiting the most? >> in the philippines, our plants are full. we have been overweight in the electronic manufacturing site. who knows where others can develop. we expanded our real estate operations in indonesia, malaysia, and we have operations in vietnam. it depends where the business opportunities lie. on the manufacturing side, southeast asia will be the beneficiary of what's happening between the u.s. and china. shery: how much will southeast china benefit? >> it's the first time there has been a communal overarching framework for people to abide by . i think it will be very
beneficial. it ties people into a broader economic sphere. we will all be net beneficiaries. the philippines has been a signatory. i think we are moving towards succeeding and bringing the economies of southeast asia into a broad framework. it is a good thing. shery: how disappointed are you india is not part of it? >> india at some point will answer. southeast asia, china, greater asia, that's already a lot of momentum. shery: do businesses like you, such a large conglomerate, you are basically in every sector. what we arected by seeing in the world of trade and tech between the u.s. and china? to downplaytrying it in a way. does it affect you at all? >> very much so. on the trade side, less. we have trade with europe, china, the u.s.. i don't think that has fallen into that. the technology shift will have
an effect. it is unfortunate. i'm a great believer in global standards, but we have to adjust to a changing landscape. i believe if there is this shift taking place between china centric technology and u.s. western technology, it will affect all of us. like everything in life, there atl be a significant effect a time when all of us want technology to become holistic and standardized. >> how would it affect you in particular? >> we are a large technology player in the philippines, one of the largest telecommunications players. we have a banking industry that relies on technology. we have been using technology from the west and from china. we have a relationship with ant financial. we do business on the micro lending. right now, we are able to do
business with both sides of the world. we will continue doing so and getting technologies that suit our country best. shery: let's talk about the philippine economy. we have seen you land revenues for residential dipping in the third quarter. how much of that is to do with international buyers really seeing it dampen their investment? >> it has been a big run. the past decade has been good. you do get slowing down. in the philippines, we have a low interest-rate rate environment, exchange rate, very strong household consumer demand. extent, the real estate industry may be slowing down, but it is still alive and doing well. it has been a good run. >> -- shery: what pockets of the property market are using seeing slowdown in? >> we have five from the top and lowest. consumer items,
housing, that needs to grow at a fairly high rate. that's driven a lot by overseas buyers. that middle layer continues to grow. >> also growing very fast is your ac energy business. what do you envision for your energy sector? shift, we a big started in the energy sector. our aim is to have five gigawatts of power under are controlled by 2025. the energy needs are tremendous. a massive shift towards renewables. there's an opportunity to start technology. in the philippines we have been a big player. now we are investing in solar and wind. some opportunities in australia. with this shift taking place, technology has brought prices down. great to have you with
us. thank you for joining us. course, as a programming note, the new form is being organized, a division of bloomberg lp. we have plenty ahead from the new york forum para --. . duncan clark joins me later this hour. also later today, we hear from the primavera capital founder. plus, goldman sachs chairman and ceo david solomon. this is bloomberg.
important. >> change is happening. singlefidence from a source for anybody in the world has reduced. people will be spreading their bets. from won't have a lot of the two countries. business is doing quite well. there in the low double digits, low teens to the mid-20's. >> some of our guests giving their thoughts on the trade war. china's chief negotiator has expressed cautious optimism
about a phase one trade deal with the u.s.. he made the comments at a dinner on wednesday before the u.s. house passed a bill supporting hong kong's protesters. i'm joined here in beijing by sean. is it the first time we are meeting in person? so. think it is just like being on tv. shery: let's talk about this. the vice premier with cautious optimism. you have the hong kong human rights. >> the real question is are we watching another of these false throws? both sides have an interest in getting the phase one deal done. it seems like every time they make progress, something happens to complicate the picture. that is happening. we also have had president trump saying he will sign it. how do the chinese react?
can they do what they have done so far in these trade talks, compartmentalize the issue and try and keep going? shery: can the president use this as a bargaining chip? >> i don't know if it is a bargaining chip necessarily. the real question is the nitty-gritty details on how much they are going to will back my in terms of tariffs, what the chinese will agree to include, and they are also talking about china's schedule, phase two, possibly a phase three. that is a long way away. >> when you talk to your sources, do you get a sense of potential optimism over what comes next? what happens after phase one? will it lead to a broader deal? >> it is a big question in washington there needs to be a phase two for donald trump to sell this to the electorate next year. also to the china hocks both in
his own administration and washington. on capitol hill and congress, senator marco rubio, they has been skeptical. he needs to lay out not just a phase one deal, but a path forward beyond that. shery: when it comes to phase one, do we have any dia of the size, any of the tariffs already in place? >> donald trump said it would include 60% of the deal they thought they had in may. it is unclear how he gets that number. some other folks have a much lower number. shery: you are not necessarily -- there are going to be commitments on intellectual property in the phase one deal. in the beginning of some concessions on forced technology. there will be bigger openings, things like the financial sector. some of the things china is
doing already. if you can wrap them in a bow, maybe you can get a win for both sides. shery: so many questions unanswered. sean trying to help us with where the negotiations are going. >> thank you very much for that. breaking news coming out of the hong kong government. it is to do with their reaction to the house passing this bill that backs the protesters in hong kong. saying isovernment is it is against it. it strongly opposes the passage of that bill, saying it will not help ease social unrest in the territory. does send thebill wrong signal to violent protesters. bloomberg new economy forum taking place in beijing after this.
>> a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. softbank is said to be in talks to receive as much as $2.8 billion in financing. companies ready to provide loans as part of the regular financing. is nikkei news said softbank paving the way for its $3 billion offer to we work shareholders. the prime minister scott morrison said should deeply reflect the ceos future after he declined to resign with the bank accused of the biggest breach of roles in history. reached money laundering. more than 23 million times failed to detect payments.
president trump says he's considering offering apple an invention from paris on goods imported from china, touring an apple facility with the ceo. he said it isn't fair for apple to be taxed and vices made in china, given samsung doesn't have to pay similar duties. iphones, and laptops from december 15. >> we are looking at that. company, aat competitor of apple. it is not fair, because we have a great deal. we made a great deal. apple with aeat similar basis as we treat samsung. let's have a look at the stock of the hour. this is a market mover. down at the moment.
just over 5% in a declining market. the reasons for this seems inextricable. it is an e-commerce discretionary firm. normally food delivery and the like. down and delivery, other services. earnings coming out later today. expand freshto food stores today. they opened in an of them in the technology. that is something they will announce this afternoon. biggest tech and e-commerce companies have been opening off-line stores for fast food in recent years. includes alibaba. open its first set shop in beijing in 2017. there are some of the other stocks. these are the biggest.
directly declined 22% after massive miss in the u.s.. not trading at the moment, because it is a u.s. traded company. in this part of the world currently, great news. anticipation of earnings. that's what we have at the moment. this is what we have market wise. lunch break in china. shanghai and shenzhen. lows of the day. talking washington, beijing. had some positive noise come through. premier saying he was cautiously optimistic on a trade agreement. he also said he was perplexed by the attitude of u.s. negotiators.
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with escalated tension china that threatens the long-awaited trade deal. the impeachment hearings have tll -- tolled by a trump worker admitting -- u.s. envoy, gordon sondland said that rudy giuliani was working at the president's direction. some say that any road to diplomacy in ukraine -- he further said that there was no rogue agency. everyone was in the loop. separate campaign events, he consistently confused the levels of fact being placed by the government.
later, thers conservative party clarified his comments and corrected his figures. boeing is facing more pressure to decide on the future of the jumbo jet. this is the southern california factory that has produced beingges for every 747 is torn down and sulfur parts. largest supplier of the 748 program. news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan, this is bloomberg. >> alibaba raised around $11 a hong in hong kong --
kong share sale. 76 hong kong dollars each. $80 in new york. this is as china has been pushing for companies to live closer to hong kong. has formally served as the british chamber of commerce in china. you are also the author of this book about alibaba. both into the show and welcome economy forum.g the standoff has no solution at this moment. -- listen to hong kong now why list in hong kong now? >> it is purely online. the timing is a shot of confidence in hong kong as a
financial center. it is bringing to get it the information zone and the trading zone. training has always been in new york. the information zone is china. alibaba is fundamentally focused on the chinese market. people in china know it a lot better. >> how much has this helped alibaba in the eyes of beijing? >> it is not unhelpful. follow the party line. interpreteds been pretty well where it is moving. this is a helpful move. it also makes sense for them to have around the clock training and tapping into this chinese mainland. consumers who want to buy in to the program. >> do think there will be unrest in hong kong now that the u.s.
is planning to sign into law the human rights and democracy act? could it have a negative impact on the hong kong listings? >> i think it is still in flux. we still have the trade talks ongoing. there is a school in washington that really wants to stop the child -- the company's rising. that is a mainstream school of thought. that is a challenge for china. this has been a driver of innovation jobs. it is up to now to see if china will make changes. >> we have seen such a big success for alibaba. especially given that the single day sales were really phenomenal.
i have had one analyst tell me that is all because of big data, the way they analyze consumers. -- where doesata the line lie? the line of what the government can do? >> big data is never bigger than in china. we have these two companies, alibaba and $.10. we have logistics and finance like integrated. alibaba is involved. you are able to a test of are doing, what they may not even know. that is the dream for e-commerce. it will spread into other areas. we are seeing it in syntactic. yet, we have not seen the same backlash in china that we have in the west, the tech/-- techla
sh if you will. peoplebecause most associate technology with improvements in their lives. >> as we see this bifurcation with the china u.s. trade were going on, this bifurcation in tech, how is that affecting the dynamics of where we are headed in this global tech battle question marks it is like -- tech battle? >> it is almost like a trifur cation if that is a word. there are some cases where the u.s. is not offering alternatives. u.k.ey work in ways that and germany is? we assume by now that mainland china will be going in a different direction. that is now happening globally. this question of where is china
they keep her giving us a little bit of time on this very busy day. the marketing is opening up for financial services and a couple of months. does this mean you will change your strategy? up, were now stepping have taken a majority of securities. sometimes people forget that we are the second or third largest in china. we are recruiting and investing in one of the most exciting economies in the world. >> this is what management? >> mostly wealth management -->> this is wealth management? >> mostly wealth management.
we work for entrepreneurs. shenzhen 10 days ago. there is a lot of tech in shenzhen. it is one of the fastest-growing in china. it is driving the new chinese economy. >> the chinese billionaires want to invest it really than other billionaires. we help them grow their business. we also help them diversify. the problem is with the people who have been there successful in business. do is diversify and invest globally. that is a win-win. ands a win for them businesses. >> when you look at wealthy clients in asia, do they invest less? has that been the biggest
problem for the economy in two or three years? >> it is visibility. it is harder to make long-term investment decisions. on the positive side, it has led to a lot of trade in asia. they can shift production. you have seen a lot of that. what we all hope for is a resolution. >> do supply chains come back to china? >> i am not sure. some say it could be irreversible. this is why it is so important. this is something we all need
for the economy to grow. >> talking about trust, how did the hong kong protests impact your clients in hong kong? >> so far, we have not seen an impact. we have not seen big outflows. >> they're not trying to open offshore accounts? does it automatically go to singapore? >> we hope there will be a political solution. a positivepe resolution will be found. this section of the world has been growing very positively. you,ery time i talk to there is that negative risk. is consolidation going to happen because of negative risk?
agrees, notrybody imperial they but it is desirable. beenbstacles have always the lottery and politicalization. it is very complicated to match wages. it should be a positive development. day, what we the need is a focus on emerging markets. we are focusing on entrepreneurs in emerging markets, going there is the answer.
long-term, -- >> are you hiring in emerging markets? >> we are. brazil is a big we're very excited about. the middle east as well. southeast asia is huge. china itself is huge. everywhere. also, switzerland. we do a lot of things in switzerland. >> the u.k.? i know we are in china. we don't know what happens when there is election -- an election december 12. >> it is the offshore activity
that has been the thing for poor people in the world. questions about the u.k.. i refuse to answer them. i am refusing to answer them. i am very consistent. >> what is the one thing the world needs besides -- the world economy needs besides the u.s. china trade pact? is the market overpricing? >> more coordination. clear that the policy makers and decision-makers are working together. even when a recession happens at some point, coordination will be vital then. it may not be vital when things are good but if we answer a time,ve scenario ahead of
the downside can be less. >> i know you have a panel coming up. the panel will focus on the next recession. are we in better shape now to deal with a recession? >> definitely. the banking sector is much stronger. we have reserves. the creativity is very strong. >> what about shadow banking? >> um, how much time do you have? no, i have to go. [applause] [laughter] there has been a lot of work done on shadow banking already. >> thank you so much for joining us today. att is the chief executive
we got a briefing on oil prices and i were cultural products. the slide in shipments may have bottomed out. -- agricultural products. the slide in shipments may have bottomed out. you would think that imports are slightly cheaper as a result of the strength of the dollar. consumptionlow down there. exports have been dented by what is happening. the price of rice has become expensive and less of the export driver that it used to be. appreciation -- eight percent appreciation.
but look at the business flash headlines. amazon comparing to go cashless at pop-up stores. we are told the plan could happen as early as the first quarter of next year. is -- it is a key part of the company trying to invest $1.3 billion in the grocery industry in the united states. foral is using a platform shopping and rewarding. this company was founded in 2012. it is best known as a popular discovery tool that helps users find savings as they shop online. the couple he was profitable in 2018 and has 70 million people using the service each month. this will keep the space in los angeles. ntt is offering record salaries
to attract top talent. they are trying to attract employees from google and apple. it has salaries of $1 million or more at its palo alto labs. it is working on clouds and computing services and less on its traditional mobile phone operation. bloomberg economy forum, you can see a reasonably robust local economy that is growing extremely long on the chinese economy. beijingke to us here in . long-term,edium and in the short-term, there are some pressures. 5% or 6% growth, these pressures are manageable.
i think we will continue to get stronger. >> if you look at the world economy, it looks like we are closer to being in a bubble than we thought. it is still fragile? >> it is fragile. there are lots of things going on in the world that could derail it. it is a reasonably robust economy. have hade had di -- we dips. i think those will persist. we made some adjustments to the initial phase of the trade war. worse, -- we are optimistic we can avoid a detour back into the bed zone. we are continuing to invest as if the economy will steadily improve over the next 1.5 years. >> talk to me about china. if we stay in the trade war without getting a phase one deal but without it getting worse, what does that mean for the world economy? >> the world has adjusted and
china has adjusted. i think supply chains are steadily adjusting to this reality that some goods become more expensive. i was saying last night that some companies are feeling the pain. one that was identified is apple. it is very difficult for apple to run a business. trouis not good for u.s. -- tours. >> if you look at apple, what does that mean related to the holiday season? are we more likely to get a phase one deal because of christmas? >> i don't know if the christmas effect is that big. >>just giving the -- just given the timing. community -- investments will be coming in. people will stop taking actions
based on these increases that are pending. it becomes a behavior thing. >> has the u.s. china trade were changed the world forever because the supply chain has changed? will they go back to what they used to be if there is a revolution -- resolution? that changes, the world has changed forever. supply fromce of a anything a source in the world has been reduced. people will be spreading their bets. they will be arranging alternative supply chains. they will be building more and more at home. i say afraid because we all know of doing things where they can be done best.
speaking at the bloomberg new economy forum. we have more big names coming up including the ceo of goldman sachs, david. the got for those conversations. rishaad: look at what we have market rise -- market wise. we have some really deep dives on some of days. 8/10 of 1% on. the hang seng is 1.6% lower. a bit of a recovery. it has not really stuck. that was the comment from the chinese vice president there. he was very cautiously confident they would be signing a phase one trade deal with the u.s.. he said the other side gave him a bit of confusion from the negotiating table.