tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg November 22, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
radio audiences worldwide, i am vonnie quinn. kevin: welcome to balance of power or the world of politics meets the world of business. we start with president trump who is still deciding about the hong kong legislation. the president spoke this morning to fox news. >> if it went for me, hong kong would have been obliterated in 40 minutes. they have one million soldiers standing outside of hong kong that are going and only because i asked them, please don't do that, you would be making a huge mistake. it would have a negative impact on the trade deal. i thought this was a done deal. downems now he is slowing the signing process. when congress was debating this, the president did not say what his thoughts were either way. they passed the house of
congress buying overwhelming margin, a 417-1 in the house. it is the kind of legislation that would be vetoproof. they could reject the veto. president trump can say to chinese authorities, i did not sign it, this is something congress did. kevin: meanwhile, i could tell you i spoke with a republican from florida who said the white house is working with them on this legislation. bill: the u.s. has throughout the process, there has been an advantage of keeping a pressure on china to get them to reach a deal, get a deal fast. both sides would like to headed to 2020 with some sort of phase one agreement and then take it from there. vonnie: this will not derail that, right? the president can leave it on his desk. it is vetoproof.
almost every member of the house has signed it. chinal be a signal to will at the same time the president will not have alienated president xi. bill: i think the question will be how quickly congress will move to override the veto even if it is something president trump let's die on his desk. is that something they would get done before the christmas holiday, when you obviously have impeachment, the budget resolution to be dealt with before the holidays. it adds to what congress would have to deal with and with that ramp up the pressure on china and the u.s. to get a deal done fast? vonnie: presumably with what the president told fox, he wants to take some credit for calming the situation, saying he persuaded china from moving in. is a areas -- how serious situation in china? do we have to be concerned? bill: i think even before a week
ago, there was a sense that the dramaticing -- images over the weekend and the start of the week with the students who ended up besieged at the university showed as long as this continues to smolder, there is always a chance it could flare up and interfere with other bilateral issues, like trade. kevin: should the president not sign this and congress overrides it, what message would that sent to china? not necessarily from president trump, but to not have congress on the same page? bill: it would be a shot across the bow. on the been so focused phase one trade deal, this kind of episode, what we see in hong kong and about the concerns about the internment camps in western china, it shows the
bilateral relationship has a lot of issues. just getting an early stage trade deal will not resolve a lot of outstanding problems. vonnie: the president continues to give out advice that he is looking for a deal, he is optimistic. we had mixed messages out of china all week. has there been any marginal movement you have been able to detect? big: we have not seen a ramp up in high-level talks or anything like that. i think a lot of people assume this early-stage agreement would have been reached by now or would be reached in the next few weeks. i think it will be a lot harder for the president to defend the work he has done so far. in mid-january for instance, nothing has been signed. vonnie: thank you. trade and turn to markets and how all of this is impacting the markets. abigail doolittle is with us in
our new york studios. we are having a hard time breaking through the 3100 mark and s&p. >> it is interesting what we are seeing. 500 without as&p move greater than 1%. you are right about the optimism. investigators -- investors want some kind of directional cue and you have to think it has to do with trade. think traders and investors don't care how this deal gets done but they want some certainty. what is not priced in is the possibility those december 15 tariffs of 20% or 25% going. that could be a possible negative shock to the market. suggestion that bridgewater think something out of left field could happen. voices are proliferating
calming things down. siegele had jeremy saying there could be a 10% to 15% drop. abigail: i was surprised by that. that is a big call to see the market dropped by 15% or 20%. the other thing i would like to point out is the idea there are summary voices saying there would be a big correction or bear market relative to -- i don't have decades of experience of i do have 15 or 20 years experience. bear markets have -- don't happen when people expect them. the fact you have some he people talking about something big happening to me suggest a complacency toward record highs my continue. i could be wrong on that but that is what it feels like to me. 3000 100, if you are in
their the bear market will take you by surprise. let's get a look at bloomberg first word news. >> a day after impeachment hearings wraps up, president trump defenses attacks on marie yovanovitch. he told fox news she was an obama woman and she said bad things about me. the president raised doubts about other witnesses who testified it inquiry. the president talked about a follow-up investigation, calling other witnesses including adam schiff. >> you want to try it? >> look. number one, they should never, ever, impeach. >> no word from the intelligence committee on what comes next or whether it will hold more hearings or move forward with impeachment. chinese president xi said he
wants to work out a trade deal with the u.s. on the basis of mutual respect and equality. speaking today on fox news, the president said chaos in hong kong is complicating matters but he is not ruled out and getting a phase one agreement done. we have a deal potentially, very close. he wants to make it much more than i want to make it. >> without a deal, the white house threatened to impose more 15, that iscember in addition to $360 billion worth of tariffs already on chinese imports. in hong kong, the government allowed a reinforcement on a ban on masks. earlier this week, the court ruled the ban unconstitutional. the government wanted the ruling suspended while it is being appealed. protesters said the mask band will make it easier for authorities to identify them. police estimate that more than
200,000 people demonstrated across colombia. there was a nationwide strike aimed at the deeply unpopular president. organizers want to put pressure on the government for labor laws. global news 24 hours a day, on the air at tictoc, on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. coming up, u.s. lawmakers have been trying to reach a deal for months on the 2020 defense spending deal. we will hear from a critical voice, adam smith. this is balance of power on bloomberg tv and radio. ♪
kevin: this is balance of power on bloomberg television and radio. president trump has signed a short-term funding bill that will push the threat of a government closure a few weeks down the road. is one of them. smith, us now is adam the democrat who represents washington's ninth congressional district. thank you for joining us. would haveu something by today. where are you on that process? adam: we have made a lot of progress. there are a couple of big policy challenges and the wall is the biggest one. president of the white house republicans want to keep their ability to transfer money out of
the dod for the wall. there seems to be no moving off of that. vonnie: this has been a sticking point for months and you have known this. at what point -- adam: i am getting to that. we can live with that. basically they have decided they will negotiate that as part of the larger appropriations process. i have problems with that from a policy standpoint. it comes down to two issues -- space force, which the president wants and my caucus is concerned about, and paid family leave. this is something we supported in the house bill. quite honestly, in the white house is with me on this, we can do the space force and paid family leave and we are done. we have a bill. skinny he is saying the bill is a no go. adam: it is an impossible thing
to work and it does not have the space force at all, which is part of the reason it is anoka. the white house says -- the white house said it will not sign a bill without the space force in it. the bill is already to go. we have agreed on important policy, we just have to get the proper balance between what the republicans want and what we want and that is the way it works in divided government. hadn: you told reports you concerns about the acquisition process. can you elaborate on that? adam: this was an issue i was not able to get the republicans to agree to. if you look at the history of our space launch and for the purpose of television there is no way i can get into all of this. the bottom line is there has been a bias toward incumbent carriers and away from competition. , at has happened in space
huge development in the area of space and our new companies emerging. once upon a time, there was only one company the did space launch. boeing and lockheed got together and said we can't compete, we will be a monopoly. other companies are now coming in and competing and i think the air force has been bias with the incumbent and have not encourage competition, which has harmed the taxpayer. we are not getting the benefit of competition. i want to encourage competition. the air force is struggling with the contract on the new strategic deterrent, the new intercontinental ballistic missile. for a down to one bidder $100 billion contract. is i think wee need more competition. i don't think the air force has done enough to encourage that. kevin: let me follow up on that. to increaseanage
competition? how do you find a balance of getting competition on an emerging market but also making sure that hostile foreign actors impactingina, are not the space development field? adam: those are two separate questions. on the first question, it is not hard to encourage competition. competing,spacex was there were huge contracts going out for extended periods of time. if you want competition, you don't give out a 10 year contract to one company when their other competitors in the field. i could get way down in the weeds on what that means, it is basic competition. as far as russia and china getting into the field, it is all the more reason for us to get the best product at the best price. saide: nancy pelosi yesterday there has not been a decision made on if we have enough testimony from the house
impeachment inquiry to go forward with articles of impeachment. have you made your own personal decision on whether that has been enough for that to happen? adam: i believe there has. i would like to see what the specific articles are. one of my frustrations is the republicans are being dishonest by dragging out this process. if you want to debate with what to do, that is fine. but a mythological argument donald trump was soaked focused on -- donald trump was focused on corruption in ukraine. investigateem to joe biden and hunter biden exchange for aid and meeting at the white house. there is no question that this would happen. i think it is deeply troubling you want to construct an argument why he is not impeachable, that is ok. but you create a myth on how donald trump wanted to check on corruption and he felt the only corruption in ukraine was around
burisma, no, it was political and it should not have been. vonnie: if the house speaker decides to go forward, does that derail your timetable? adam: it does not. the senate is a different matter. i want to emphasize the white house, when it comes to my bill, has been a terrific partner. togethereen working and there are lot of dedicated policy people over there. we are working on issues that matter to the country. we can do impeachment and this. the reason we have not done an appropriations bill is because we don't have an agreement. it is not a matter of time. to get my bill done, i just have to get nancy pelosi, donald trump and mitch mcconnell to agree. kevin: i want to ask you about the other major legislation, the usmca. do you think that will get done
by the end of the year? adam: i am cautiously optimistic. i think it would be a good agreement. i think chairman ritchie neil and the ways and means committee have been talking. it is like a roller coaster where you go all the way up and all the way down and eventually you build up enough momentum to get over the top. [laughter] adam: i think we are close to that. making sure we enforce environmental standards as aggressively as we enforce business standards and international agreements is important and we are trying to drive a hard bargain. vonnie: should the president be allowed to have a final say over military matters when it comes to servicemen who have been convicted or undergoing the trial process? adam: no. i think it is deeply damaging to the cohesiveness of our military. if you're in the military and you think i don't have to listen to my immediate superior because
if i do what i want to do i can always go over his head to fox news and the president and get out of it. that will make it difficult for the military to instill discipline. i think he few think you have a back channel, that makes it difficult. vonnie: did you hear any candidates that make you think we have our next democrat? adam: i will give you my bias, i have not endorsed anyone, but i am very impressed by pete buttigieg. i feel he has a depth of knowledge. in my experience, i election's are about the future, not the past when you look at that stage, pete buttigieg looks like the future of the party. vonnie: thank you very much to congressman adam smith. this is balance of power on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
vonnie: this is balance of power on bloomberg television and radio. i am vonnie quinn. kevin: it is time for our political power. jason green and kelly sadler. what a week. my word. let's start with you kelly in regard to the 2020 democratic presidential debate. who stood out? if you watched that debate, it was low-energy, everyone had their prepackaged minds. the only one who would not script was pete buttigieg. he does not have the african-american support. kevin: can he maintain his status as a front runner? booker werecory here, he would be blowing smoke. wherer question about
mayor pete is, he is gaining significant support. expect tor would also be in the conversation. around the african-american vote, pete is showing he is trying to build the coalition. joe biden has proved he could be a coalition voter. elizabeth warren stance on health care, will that hurt her or help her? the backtracking from elizabeth warren on health care, does that help or hurt her? jason: i think what you are seeing is a robust debate around health care. some strongface questions from her competitors
about what is the best way to get a health care all proposal. what we need to remember going through the primary process is this is a good thing for the country. no one presents competition for the president. i think what is exciting is we are going to a process where we are debating important issues. when we get to the end and we recognize who the democratic nominee will be, that nominee will be that much stronger for having debated these policies. kevin: there has been summary debates. more impeachment proceedings. is there anything you think will happen that will break support? voters,ependent michigan, ohio, pennsylvania. kelly: we are seeing that in the polls already. the vote going in was on party lines.
notonly bipartisan part was to endeavor down this lane. what the democrats need to do is grow support to break these partisan chains. someone came out and said i don't think it is there. there is no clear charges here to pursue. and then you see the emerson poll where there are no independents saying we are against impeachment. kevin: there is so much talk about. stick around. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ everyone uses their phone differently.
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we heard from kelly about the polls that would suggest maybe some good news for president trump regarding the impeachment inquiry. jason, i think you have a different look. jason: surprise, surprise. it's important to remember, democrats need to do three things. one thing is to make a case to the american people. people are frustrated they are about to go into recess now. they need to say this is why we are bringing the case. second, the source transcripton, the from the july 25 call provides the evidence that they need to be able to convey an important point here. a lot of testimony coming out, but that is what they need to continue to come back to. the last pieces around their ability to walk and chew gum at the same time. kevin: there is the cliche. fory: it would be nice
nancy pelosi bring usmca to the floor. this is a partners -- bipartisan bill that will inject billions into the u.s. economy, provide almost 200,000 new jobs. why are the democrats reluctant to give the president a win? when they bring it to the floor, they will say it is a wonderful opportunity. that will work its way through. seeso think that we will movement around infrastructure, which has been the long talked about policy. infrastructure weak is every week. kelly: i'm not so sure if i agree with you. if they go through with the impeachment proceedings, they go on recess, they come back, they put it to a vote. the president has stated clearly, if you proceed with this, we will take it to the senate and we want a trial. the president will be obstructionist at that point. kevin: on the issue of usmca, a
lot of democrats want it done privately behind the scenes. do you think it will cross the finish line? jason: i think it will, but we have to recognize the significance of this. from a job creation perspective world working the with our clients, trying to figure out how we can best engage in infrastructure, move policy around job creation, insure small businesses in this country can thrive. kevin: that is an issue you can both agree on. thank you to kelly and jason. impeachment obviously constantly in the news. so far we have not seen huge market movement. is the market in pervious to the impeachment process or even result? joining us now is stephen pavlick from renaissance macro research. let's take that question head-on. we ran a story yesterday about
how the market appears to be pretty impervious to the process. if we see nancy pelosi decide that there should be the next up in if you'd process, will we see a market reaction? stephen: i don't think so. i think the base case is likely to hold, the house will vote to remove trump from office, but i don't think as a result of the hearings this week that the senate is likely to follow course. i think they will acquit trump. the bigger impact is probably on 2020 and that may be of a bigger interest to markets. if you are going to have a senate trial, it will require the six democratic senators running for president to stay in d.c. if you are elizabeth warren, that will prevent you from being on the ground in iowa and new hampshire. those voters are used to candidates coming and courting them in person, like pete buttigieg, who has seen a boost in the polls.
he will be able to be on the ground. i think that might be of more interest to markets, particularly those who are concerned about what elizabeth -- warren's presidency may mean for markets. vonnie: is this impacting nancy pelosi? stephen: she has already committed to having the end of the year. it is when it goes over to the at that point, it is out of nancy pelosi's hands. that is partly why she was expressing reluctance over forward, anticipating this could hurt the 2020 democrats chances of reclaiming the white house. there are some down ballot fx of that that will affect her caucus. i follow your argument, if president trump does not need to be worried about impeachment hearings ahead, how worried does he need to be about china negotiations
not coming to a conclusion? stephen: that is the bigger thing to keep an eye on. now that the epic summit was canceled, we have to look at when the tariffs go into effect. tensions are going to flare as we get closer to the december 15 deadline. watching the headlines around that will be important. do they is progress, announced something around december 15, does trump postpone the tariffs? i don't think markets would react too much on that. i think there would be status quo. if terrorists were to increase, i don't think that is priced into the markets. you would see some concern. kevin: that is what i want to pick on. week, there this was an expectation that either usmca or phase one of the u.s. china trade deal would get completed potentially by the end of the year. have markets recalibrated in
pricing and now possibility that neither of priw possibility that neither of them might happen by the end of the year? stephen: i think the president would have preferred to have both of those completed before the end of the year. the political calculation remains the same. even though it was unable to happen this year, there is still optimism. chairman smith on earlier, and i share his optimism on usmca. the political calculus for democrats to support it is still there. there is a narrow window next year where they could move it. i think that optimism could carry into next year. i think you could apply a similar sentiment with china. ideally, they would have had it done by november. now we are looking at november 16. if we have to look at the beginning of the year, there could be a window. concerned if you
are the president, in february, farmers will need to begin taking out loans to begin planting for next year. you have to have some assurance about what the loan amount will be. joeie: a poll today putting biden at the top of the joe biden at the top of the debate. i'm curious about how you thought the candidates dead, whether we will see any massive change to the structure.. itphen: candidly, i thought was a status quo debate, didn't know that it was going to change things. if i had to pick some winners, i would start with pete buttigieg. people were anticipating a lot of attacks on him coming given he is the front runner in many iowa polls. i don't think he had very harsh treatment. i also think elizabeth warren was probably a winner. buttigieg attacked her and her medicare policy. she did not seem to faze too
much scrutiny this time. she has struggled recently because of her medicare for all , but not focusing on that was probably her benefit. i thought joe biden had a few call into question, is he passed his prime, is he the best candidate to go toe to toe with donald trump? i would worry less about what the national polls say and what the state polls say. they will be the ones to determine the winner of the delegates that move forward. vonnie: thank you for joining us. we will be talking more before that happens. that is stephen pavlick from renaissance macro research. bloomberg first word news, let's go to mark crumpton. mark: president trump supports the effort of pro-democracy demonstrators in hong kong and he does not want that to prevent a trade deal between the u.s. and china from getting done. he made the remarks to fox news today. i stand with hong kong,
freedom, all of the things we want to do, that we are also in the process of making the largest trade deal in history. if we can do that, that would be great. china wants it, we want it. mark: the president also said, if it were not for me, thousands would have been killed in hong kong right now. mr. trump has not said that he would sign the bill backing hong kong. it passed unanimously in the senate with support from all but one republican in the house. john bolton is back on social media after eight of you will-month hiatus, and he is hinting at possible reasons in a post today. he said his twitter account has been liberated. wrote that his account had been unfairly suppressed in the wake of his departure from the white house. he added that there would be more to come. impeachment talks loom over ukraine, the trump administration's withholding of over $100 million in military assistance to lebanon amid
ongoing protests in the country. they'd has been approved by congress and is favored by president trump's national security team. the funding has language for months, waiting approval from the office of management and budget. lebanon is considered a key u.s. ally in the middle east. meantime, protesters in the country stayed to reparations in beirut today, marking the countries 76 independence day. nancy pelosi and robert lighthizer fail to seal a deal on a new north american trade treaty. that increases the chance and agreement will not go before congress for a vote this year. speaker pelosi says she is eager to get a deal done but said she would not agree to a superficial agreement without stronger enforcement. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
kevin: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. i'm kevin cirilli. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. 20 days until u.k. general election and boris johnson's is the issuerexit on the campaign trail. david trimble was one of the architects of the 1988 good friday agreement, which has lasted 21 years now and counting. is the issue he says the prime minister's plan for a process of brexit ireland is better than a solution than the so-called backstop. he argues the backstop would undermine the belfast agreement he helped negotiate. for more, we welcome lord david trimble.
i'm curious, your former party has tweeted out that boris johnson's deal is fundamentally bad for the union, a bad deal for northern ireland. what makes you think as unionists it's a good deal for northern ireland? david: i'm quite sure it is in interest to leave the european union, and we will now with boris as prime minister. we can look forward to him acting to take us out of the european union and put us into a situation where we are in control of our own country again. that is the important thing that happen. happen. vonnie: lord trimble, how can you have the belfast agreement intact and a brexit agreement as is intact? david: there is no conflict between the two. the belfastdavid: agreement deah constitutional matters, matters of governance, it does not do with economic issues.
brexit is an economic issue. there is no overlap. it is wrong for people to suggest that brexit in some way e belfastha agreement. i am really crossed with people peddling this falsehood. vonnie: a couple of the criticisms are that under the belfast agreement, someone living in northern ireland could choose where they were a citizen of, great britain, ireland, or the european union, also that there were no borders north or south, east or west. that all changes now. david: no, it does not. you have left out the common travel area which was created by britain in the 1920's. that means british and irish citizens can move throughout the united kingdom without any check, need for passport. the important thing in terms of
is there in that arrangement. kevin: here in washington, d.c., there is a lot of chatter about what all of this will mean not necessarily for ireland but u.s.-u.k. trade relations. what do you propose should be the outcome 20 days from now? david: what people should bear in mind, we have a unique situation where a g5 country is leaving its existing fiscal arrangement, and going to start creating its own arrangements , a wholerd to tariffs range of financial areas. people should be thinking about the opportunities that this can create. from our point of view, if we begin a situation where our own government, which is accountable to us, is in a position to strike deals, in a position to
determine what is to be paid. asin: what you see opportunities, wall street sees as economic uncertainty. how do you project certainty in this iteration? david: certainty will come with the election result. kevin: can i follow up to this? you look geopolitically at some of the economic uncertainty in germany, italy. say to folks that this is subjecting even more uncertainty coming from europe into the global economy? david: i can understand people looking at the european union today will wonder, how did they get into the uncomfortable situation they are in? from our point of view, leaving europe will be a liberation, and it will mean that we are an independent country again. if things go wrong, we will be able to go to our elected representatives and make our
position known. i think that is a healthier state of affairs. yourself and others achieve one of the greatest achievements in the 20th century with the good friday agreement. the northern ireland assembly has not met for more than two years. the power-sharing structure has been breaking down on a consistent basis. do you feel that leaves the people of northern ireland without a real voice in unionistsr, and that only have arlene foster of the dup, the party that came after the uup, to speak up for them? david: you are right in saying this is not a satisfactory situation with the northern assembly not functioning. note assembly members trying to get assembly back into operation again should think carefully about their position. that?: what would unblock it cannot be satisfied for
someone like you in westminster having conservatives not concentrate hard on ireland. it seems to be an app the among tories on northern ireland. david: there have been gaps in our legislature. the need forilling legislation. unfortunately, it has been done over the head of northern ireland, which is not satisfactory. the secretary of state has put on an ultimatum to the assembly members that they sort themselves out by february. if they have not done so by february, he is going to put them to an election, will call and assembly election. we will see what the consequences are then. i hope the parties that have boycotted the assembly will change their position and go back. vonnie: lord trimble, pain us a picture of northern ireland post-brexit.
have trading arrangements with, how much does it help or hinder economic growth? david: the objective at the end of the day is to get a free trade agreement for the whole of the british isles. that is our long-term objective. at the moment, we have to do with getting rid of the existing arrangements, which stem from the european union, and get ourselves free from that. then we will be in a position to build a free-trade arrangement. we hope the republic of ireland will join in that, and we hope that the united states would also join. vonnie: lord trimble, former first minister of ireland. thank you for joining. we will have more coming up on bloomberg radio. ♪
secretary of state pompeo's senior advisor brian hook. here is what he said on israel. it,n: we are monitoring jared kushner and i were in that and yet -- were in israel a few weeks ago. mostlygood conversations in the context of the middle east peace process but also countering iranian aggression. i think there is a desire for all parties to avoid a third election if possible. we will have to see how that develops. in iran,anwhile pro-ayatollah protests, chanting america. how has the administrative been reacting to this, will there be additional sanctions? will be additional sanctions. today, we are sanctioning the minister of communications and technology in charge of the internet in iran. the regime was able to impose a total shutdown of the internet. today, the treasury department will be sanctioning that minister. one of the things we have also
done, over the last year and a half, we have facilitated the deployment of technologies that allow the iranian protesters to munich kate and get videos to the outside world, even when the regime shuts down the internet. kevin: i'm struck by this. even as iran has shut down the internet, there are government leaders there using twitter, social media platforms, in the midst of all of this. brian: it is a deeply hypocritical regime. shuts down the internet while its government continues to use all of these social media accounts. one of the things we are calling on our social media companies like facebook, instagram, twitter to shut down the accounts of supreme leader khamenei, the foreign minister, and president rouhani, until they restore the internet to their own people. right now, the regime has shut down the internet because they are trying to hide the death and tragedy the regime has been inflicting on thousands of
protesters around the country. we would like to see social media companies suspend these accounts. departmentthe state been in contact with technology companies on this matter? brian: we have, yes. kevin: do you anticipate they will follow through on departmet been in contact with technology companies on this that? there is a domestic issue with big tech companies and freedom of speech, but with international issues, this is an entirely separate matter. brian: when you have a government that shuts down the internet but then continues to use the internet, we think social media companies should make a statement and oppose it. one of the best way to do that is to suspend the accounts until they turn the internet back on. n. when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts now. coming up, rinse and now. repeat. president trump says the trade deal is close. enthusiasm dating. spreads widening, triple c junk credit rolling over. let's begin with the big issue. overlooking year-end risk. >> everything is awesome right now. >> hope is a wonderful thing. a truepotential for bottoming of the economy in
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