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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 26, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EST

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romaine: it's 10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. from new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: we are waiting on -- romaine: we are waiting on data on u.s. home sales. it is an annual increase -- excuse me, a drop of about 0.7% in the most recent month, but that still puts us on annual pace of 733,000 homes above average, that's above the median estimate for october. also getting consumer confidence data out of the conference board. right alongming in .5,imates here at about 125 slightly down from the prior reading of 125.9. present expectations is a key
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measure a lot of people look to to get a gauge of consumer spending. 172.3.ll to 166.9 from we can get a quick check of what is happening in the u.s. equity after coming off of the 24th record high for the s&p 500 for the year. if you're looking for leadership in this market, you're not really going to find it. consumer discretionary getting a little bit of a bop, but most of the strength is in real estate. also seeing that play out in some of the havens. you see the tlt here. more buying there. across the treasury curve, seeing a bit of steepening, but because buying is across the front end of the curve. gold, interesting. a lot of bearish calls out on gold, failing to hold that $1500 level. you see it breaking below that. a lot of data out of china showing that imports not quite holding up. interesting story on the
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brazilian rial, bouncing around all day. it hit a record low earlier in the day. comments from president bolsonaro on whether they would support the rial. they have not released the details of what that price will become but did say they would put some -- will be, but did say they would put some support their. stocks aren europe, at session highs, but only up by 0.1 percent. bonds are at session highs. we are down by three points on the german ten-year. the pound under a little bit of pressure. maybe some concern creeping into the market today that the tory lead isn't quite as big a some people into the baited going into that election on the 12th. china has signaled
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trade talks with the u.s. are on track for that phase deal we've been talking about. the comers ministry says officials from both sides -- the comers ministry says officials from both sides are on the phone . ,e are joined now by sri kumar founder and president of sri-kumar global strategies. thank you for joining us. a lot of talk about this phone call that took place. there are a lot of people who mock it and say, until we get some details, does it all really matter? there's also a case to be made here that may be the details for this market don't matter as much is the fact that progress is being made. what do you make of that? sri: they have been talking since at least may of 2018. it's been a long time of talks, and every time you hear that we are very close to an agreement and then it all falls apart. i personally don't think
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anything is going to be achieved before the 2020 election. it's often been described as talking while fighting, so don't give up very much, but keep on talking. that is what we have seen happen. the gulf between the two sides is very wide in terms of intellectual property protection, in terms of forced mergers, and even though over the weekend we heard the chinese were taking steps to increase penalties for that, the question is, the devil is going to be in the details. how are you going to prove that some thing was done, and how do you actually implement the new regulations? i don't see anything happening soon, romaine. romaine: when you look at the response in the market, we are at record highs. some would say a lot of the push we've seen over the last two or three months, particularly in equities, has been because of
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the optimism surrounding a trade deal and what it could mean. do you think that the markets are may be getting a little but ahead of themselves, or are there other factors out there in the economy that the market can hang its hat on, even if a trade deal doesn't get sorted out? sri: that is it. you talked about additional factors, and i would point in particular to the fact that the federal reserve balance sheet has shot up in size from mid-september, when it reached a low of about $3.6 trillion, and now we are well over $4 trillion just two months later, and by the middle of 2020, the federal reserve balance sheet is going to go over the previous record of $4.5 trillion. in other words, the fed has been boosting liquidity in the market, which explains the fact that not only are u.s. equities continuing to do well, but also u.s. bond yields are coming down. the reason both markets are
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thriving is because there's just in excess of liquidity, and the market expects more and more liquidity the next six months. guy: if it is not a trade driven rally, if it is a liquidity driven rally, if we don't get a trade deal soon, is that going to knock the equity market off course? what happens if we don't get a trade deal by the 16th? sri: that is a great question. i believe trade is more powerful than the quantitative easing we are going for right now. so if you have oath of them take place simultaneously with the fed continuing to increase its balance sheet, which will happen because we are going to have one more repo issue and funding problem at year end, the fed will increase liquidity perhaps even more in the months of december and january. if that happens, and at the same time the trade deal falls apart, i think the market goes down
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under those circumstances. the market meaning the equity markets. the investors seek refuge in u.s. treasuries. the divergence between the equity market and the bond , if indeed will see the trade deal goes through. guy: let's talk a bit about 2020. where are you on the u.s. economy in 2020, on the global economy in 2020? i still hearing people talking about wanting to buy into value. that is premised on the idea that we see decent economic growth next year. jay powell sounds like he thinks that is going to be the case. do you? sri: i think we are indeed headed towards a recession by about the middle of 2020. the question is, is it going to be mild or severe? if we boost up equity value substantially the next three or four months, making them highly overvalued, then the fall could
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be greater as well. the reason i see the situation iseriorating economy wise the fed cannot prevent it anymore. they are doing all that they can. they are providing liquidity. they have cut interest rates. they will probably start cutting interest rates again if that happens, and if equity markets falter. but if a trade deal doesn't come through, i think a whole lot of expectation that businesses had are going to be frustrated, and i can't see the market continue to do well, nor the economy. romaine: what we heard from powell last night, and addition to his half-full comment, he also made it clear in his mind, and we've heard this from other fed members, that rate cuts this year have been successful in preventing the worst of what we thought back during the summer, when everyone thought we were headed definitely towards a recession. but do you think those rate cuts we've gotten so far have
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accomplished as much is what powell says they've accomplished? do you think they can be enough to buffer us from something even worse than where we are headed right now? the at the beginning of this program, you talked about the falling consumer confidence. there is a federal reserve bank of atlanta lowered expectation for fourth quarter growth, currently below 0.5% annualized quarter on quarter. that doesn't tell me that the fed's actions have stimulated the economy. what did stimulate the economy the second half of 2018 was the late 2017 tax cut. that was a sugar high. you got a couple of quarters of good growth. then it faltered, and 2019 is turning out to be a year of very slow growth. i don't see where the chairman's optimism comes from.
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also, he talks about inflation once again going up to 2%. of 11 yearsailure trying to get to the target. it's been there mantra since 2008. when other going to realize that cutting interest rates or increasing liquidity in this situation is not going to boost inflation? you can just keep hoping. romaine: stick around. we want to get some more thoughts from you. , president and founder of sri-kumar global strategies, staying with us. right now, we want to get a quick check on bloomberg first word news. viviana hurtado is here with that. viviana: we begin with a judge ordering former white house counsel don mcgann to testify before a u.s. house committee. the panel is investigating possible obstruction by president donald trump. the president claiming mcgann is covered by immunity. after the thanksgiving holiday,
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the house intelligence committee will submit its impeachment report. chairman adam schiff saying there is still the possibility of additional hearings or closed-door depositions. the next step would be for the judiciary committee to send impeachment charges to the full house for a vote. u.s. senator's vowing to work fast to punish turkey over testing a russian air defense system. lawmakers are considering proposals that would sanction the nato ally both for the missile system and for the offensive in northern syria. the sanctions could include an asset freeze, limit on credit, and visa restrictions. in brazil, the rial has fallen to a record low. some investors betting the central bank would intervene to prevent further declines, but brazilian policymakers are giving diverging views on how to handle the drop in the exchange rate in the last month. the real has fallen on was percent. -- the real has fallen almost 6%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. guy. guy: coming up, we are going to discuss viagogo's acquisition of stubhub with the company's ceo and founder eric baker. a little later this hour, that conversation is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ romaine: live from new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. ."is is "bloomberg markets we should check those markets. let's do that with abigail doolittle. abigail: an interesting day for global equities around the world. in the u.s., take a look at the dow, the s&p 500, and the nasdaq. we have synchronized all-time highs. that would be a risk on signal,
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but bonds rallying once again. over the last 11 sessions, bonds rallying nine of those sessions. this is influencing the sector composition today. when we go beneath the surface, it is not entirely risk on. we use the imap in the bloomberg. most sections are higher, so that would be risk on. up top, some of the more defensive sectors, real estate, consumer staples, the dividends for those sectors look more attractive. around the world, we see relatively small moves, probably a neutral risk appetite. take a look at the stoxx 600, barely budging. the pound down as traders are taking about too much complacency about the upcoming election. the german ten-year yield is down, so that is risk off. investors seeking havens. take a look at oil, a risk asset higher.
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again, a mixed picture, probably neutral. let's take a look at movers in the u.s. and abroad. best buy and dollar tree really going in opposite directions. best buy beat and boost, dollar tree, not surprisingly, missed and cut. see by four pharma -- we see pharma up, and compass group down 5%. guy: it's the restructuring costs really hurting compass group. weight on thettle stock 600. with a still, sri kumar, sri-kumar global strategies. you were talking about the fact you see things slowing down quite dramatically midway through next year. is the bond market the white rating play that -- the right way to play that, or to get back into gold? sri: the bond market is probably
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at this juncture a better way to play them gold. look at what influences bonds and what influences gold. in the case of bond market, there are three influences. inflation expectation, expectation of real growth, and global tension. i think all of those seem to be helping the u.s. treasuries that are likely to continue to help u.s. treasuries next year. i don't see inflation surging. i don't see growth pick up in any big way. side, there is one significant drawback, namely that the inflation is not increasing. gold has been supported by the fact that liquidity is factsing, and the that global tension is suppressing. but it is negative for golden positive for bonds. between the two of them, i think
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u.s. treasuries are likely to do better. we had abigail talk in terms of the german bund yield going down a few seconds ago. i expectation is that -37 probably will go more to -50, and even more negative during the months to come. so you are talking about securities, the fixed income market, being a better player than gold. guy: interesting that tips have outperformed treasuries this year, but we will leave that to one side for now. the amount of corporate debt that is being swallowed by the market right now, how sustainable is that? where do you think we start to see the crack's in your kind of environment showing up? is it in credit? is it in the ccc's? is it at the top of the high-end market? talk me through the most obvious place, if you are looking to short some of those markets. sri: i think there are three areas on the fixed income side
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you want to be very careful. one is the lowest rated investment grade bonds because a lot of investors who are not allowed to go into noninvestment grade have gone into the lowest level of investment grade, and that is interned boosting the amount of money coming in. to the extent any of the ratings are erroneous, as was the case in 2007, 2008, with respect to mortgages, those are very vulnerable. s are calling in a lot of money some plea for the yield seekers going into those lower rated -- a lot of money simply for the yield seekers going into those lower rated. "ird, there is a financial in the financial times" about subprime auto loans attracting a lot of money from investors, simply for the fact that they
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are just looking for yield. the liquidity that is being provided by the european central bank, that is being provided here by the federal reserve, is boosting it. but as we spoke earlier, to the extent the trade deal falls through, at some point you are going to have a reckoning, and these three asset classes i think are particularly vulnerable in 2020. romaine: since the financial crisis, we had how many rate cuts globally? balance sheets have expanded across central banks by the trillions of dollars, and yet we still have the sort of deflationary forces in play. i am wondering, when you look at the low rate environment in the u.s. and the negative rate environment we are seeing in europe and elsewhere, is that contributing to it, or is that of these sort of deflationary forces? sri: that is a great question, romaine. in terms of what is happening,
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the expectation was that lower rates and quantitative easing would boost inflation, and the reason why that hasn't happened is for various structural reasons. monetary policy has not lost its impact on inflation in the monetary period we have all studied. however, it has been on asset prices rather than commodity prices. we have seen asset prices being pushed up. on the commodity price side, what you would normally think of as inflation in consumer prices or wholesale prices, we had issues such as declining population in europe, the aging population on both sides of the atlantic,d -- of the and the fact that in the united states, we are not allowing the young skilled workers to come in in a big way, which would both increase production, as well as increased consumer demand. so we have a lot of structural
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reasons why inflation is not picking up, and that is why i am critical of the fed saying that the monetary changes are going to push up inflation. they are not going to do that. romaine: great stuff. always great to get your input. that is sri kumar, resident and founder of sri-kumar global strategies. still ahead, hong kong's political unrest has rocked financial markets, but did not affect alibaba's hong kong debut. it's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. romaine: from new york, i'm romaine bostick. this is "bloomberg markets." despite the turmoil in hong kong, alibaba had a blockbuster trading debut on the hong kong stock exchange. sophie kamaruddin looked back on the company's success. sophie: asia's most valuable company had a positive trading
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debut in hong kong. shares opened at $187 hong kong, higher than the issuance price. this is the gong was rung to dancing alibaba mascots while the ceo spoke of how it was good to come home. a solid start for the shares sale, which raised $11.2 billion, and could raise as much as 12.9 billion dollars, which would boost alibaba's warchest to $43 billion. plenty of enthusiasm ahead of debut that saw the retail trench boosted from 2.5%, given the interest in the shares sale, 20 years after jack ma founded the company with just $80,000. sophie kamaruddin, bloomberg news, hong kong. guy: that is the view on baba's secondary. let's take a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now.
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let's start off with xerox. it says there will not be any cooperation from hp, so plans to engage was -- to engage with hp shareholders directly in a takeover offer. they say the refusal to take part in mutual due diligence defies logic. saudi arabia's neighbors are coming through for aramco. i would be will put as much as -- abby dobbie -- abu dhabi will put as much is $1.5 billion into aramco. gulf is counting on their allies. this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: live from new york, i'm romaine bostick. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's check in with the bloomberg first word news.
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here with the details come other yacht or tonto -- the details, the vr or to auto -- the details, viviana hurtado. viviana: china and the u.s. still inching towards a phase i trade deal. comments from donald trump have led to speculation that talks would last into next year. in hong kong, police search for remaining protesters on the canvas of the university that have been under siege for days. powerfullbania, a predawn earthquake has killed at least 14 people. more than 600 are hurt. the earthquake had a magnitude of 6.4. it collapsed at least three apartment buildings. it was felt across the southern balkans. over to the u.k., it is just what labour party jeremy corbyn doesn't need. 'schief rabbi attacked corbyn
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record, having to do with anti-semitism. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. romaine: another day, another deal. ebay selling its ticket marketplace stubhub to european rival viagogo. the price tag of the deal expected to close by the end of the first quarter next year. for more on the action and ceo eric baker, also the founder of viagogo. we should also point out you are the founder of stubhub, so this is a bit of a coming home for you. what was the impetus behind making this deal? is this a business decision to further viagogo, or cynthia l'amour personal? -- or something a little more personal?
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eric: definitely the business logic. viagogo is really an international leader. . stubhub is the career branded the united states. put the two together, and you are enabling fans the ability to buy for an event anywhere in the world. romaine: why do it through acquisition? eric: stubhub has built a german this brand over 20 years. we really think it is one of -- built a tremendous brand over 20 years. we really think it is one of the best brands. guy: just picking up on that, do you regret selling it in the first place? romaine's question about whether this was a little bit personal, was that a mistake all those years ago? eric: unfortunately, it's a very good question, i had differences with my cofounders in the business, so i was pushed out, remained a large shareholder, and was rooting for it. if it had been up to me, i never would have sold it. certainly costing me a pretty
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penny to rebuy it, but we think that all is well that ends well, and it is definitely now a great purchase for viagogo. guy: as you say, it is costing you a pretty penny. can i deal with the details of the breakdown of that pretty penny in terms of the financing? are you going to do some cash? you've got debt coming in, plus equity coming in. can you walk us through how those are going to fit together? eric: we are not disclosing the specifics across that, but viagogo is a scalable, profitable business. we had the ability to take some debt on, and we have some great backers. made itination possible, and we are very excited about it. romaine: looking at this deal, there has been a lot of criticism just about the secondary ticket market out there. viagogo has gotten a lot of criticism about some of its in the u.k.
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stubhub has had criticism in the u.s. what is the advantage of going through one of your platforms? eric: i think the whole premise is to create accessibility for fans to get access to tickets. make it easier for consumers to buy and sell. we have to earn our business everyday from consumers to do that. the benefit of putting the two together is that if you are a fan, you can buy a ticket for any event, anywhere in the world, easily and seamlessly. what fans and consumers want is a frictionless experience to get what they want, when they want. romaine: so much really boils down to how much the user is going to trust the system itself. there have been cracks in that system that we've seen that have caused a degree of mistrust, to the point where regulators have felt they needed to speak out about it. how do you ensure that when folks go on there looking for
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tickets, they are seeing something that is real and priced at whatever the fair market value would be? eric: the key is when you are talking about viagogo and stubhub, we are market places. we don't set the prices. the consumer needs to know it is a safe, guaranteed transaction. the buyer knows they are going to get the ticket they want on time, the seller knows that they are going to get paid. that is the backbone of it. we are working everyday to continue to improve transparency and build trust with users. guy: do you think as a bigger company, you will face more regulatory scrutiny? eric: i think fans want the able to do to buy and sell tickets. i think that is very popular with people. but anytime you are a large consumer business, it is very important that you are always putting the consumers first and doing everything you can to improve. we think this would be very positive for everyone in the value chain. guy: you talked about the fact that you do have a sentiment of
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kind of attachment to the business, but this is a business deal. do you think you will get a good price? i read a bunch of notes from different analysts, and they all said the price was above expectations. did you really get a good deal here? eric:eric: the reason we are very excited about doing this, and we felt it was a fair deal for all involved, member, when you talk about the synergies and a couple of entry nature of these businesses, where viagogo really has a phenomenal distribution platform and stubhub is great in the states, combine those two and you get global distribution. that is not something anyone else could have created through this combination, and we know this asset extremely well, having founded it. we think we are in a unique position to make this a fair trade and derive value for the price we paid. romaine: if i'm in the u.k. or overseas, i am still going to see viagogo and stubhub? for are you going to meld these
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under one number, -- under one umbrella band? eric: it takes time before it officially closes, so i can't comment on specifically what we will do, but the stubhub brand is phenomenal. it is one of the best brands in the world, so we look forward to continue to build that. guy: where do you see the live trend going next -- the live event trend going next? clearly there is huge demand for people to have these kinds of experiences. what is the next hot spot that kind of market? eric: we have a huge tailwind, when you talk about live events. what is great is that was technology, it's changed so many things that people do. shopping from home, not doing the same things they may have come but the one thing that has been consistent is live events continues to grow. i think that is because the emotional and visceral connection that fans have, whether seeing your favorite concert or sporting event, it can never be duplicated, no matter how. . good virtual reality is.
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. we see it on a global but -- no matter how good virtual reality is. we see it on a global basis, people want to go to live events, and it is not going to stop anytime soon. romaine: eric baker, thank you for being with us, viagogo ceo. coming up, black friday friends a spreads -- black friday frenzy spreads. shoppers across the globe jumping on the bandwagon of deals. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. [cheers] ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. romaine: from new york, i'm romaine bostick. ."is is "bloomberg markets
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let's turn now to our stock of the hour, headed for its worst day in 11 years, and tariffs are part of the blame. we are talking about dollar tree. here was more, abigail doolittle. i thought dollar tree was sort of immune to all of the retail nonsense out there. abigail: if you pulled up a chart before today, you would have been right. just a straight line going up into the right, but today, the worst day at one point since 2001, down 17%. they cut the outlook with one quarter to go on the earning side, and they are talking tariffs, saying tariffs are hurting their tossed of -- hurting their cost of goods sold. they've had bad margins for many quarters now, so what we are also looking at his rising wages for the distribution centers. they are also talking about helium prices. romaine: helium? abigail: i know. they are trying to replace it with other party items. that is another issue. romaine: i can't have balloons
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anymore? abigail: maybe not from the dollar tree. they are also talking about the fact that they are selling more items that cost last. not a good mix overall. that's why investors are selling this stock so hard. guy: romaine can have his balloons. he just got to blow them up himself. [laughter] guy: it's interesting what you say about the tariffs in the margins. are they using this as an excuse? dollar general's outlook is much more positive. abigail: that was my first thought, too. i talked to an analyst here at bloomberg, and she actually thinks it is more than 50% of the mix. it could be a little would've a point,reen, but to your gross margins just going the wrong direction for a while -- a little bit of a smokescreen, but to your point, gross margins just going the wrong direction for a while.
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romaine was talking about, if we go into the terminal, until today, this stock was really moving in the right direction. but today, slicing right below that 200 a moving average. there's another level of support, but it is going to be interesting to see if they can get it together. she told me the real issue, the reason the stock is so down, is gross margins. it is probably a year before we see any sort of infection point. stay tuned. romaine: thanks for that. we are going to stick with retail and retail earnings out this morning. joining us from washington, bloomberg opinion retail and consumer columnist sarah halzack. we had another batch of earnings. overall, they looked pretty good. let's start with best buy. this is the one that completely mystifies me. i would think they would have been dead years ago. i went into a best buy recently and walked around.
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. it looked well-run, but every quarter, they seem to beat expectations. what is the secret here? sarah: i think a lot of it is they committed to investing in price and always be in competitive with amazon on that important measure. they've also really invested in customer service. the electronics business can be confusing, and these are big-ticket purchases you are making. so investing in really knowledgeable sales associates who can talk you through why you should buy this 4k tv instead of that 4k tv, or in emerging categories like vr, smart home, they tried to make them selves at authoritative place where you can go, and that seems to be paying off for them. guy: in terms of the u.s. retail already bifurcated, you are invested into i.t. really heavily. you are invested into delivery and bringing the consumer into your stores and selling them strongly, or you are not. if you are on the wrong side of that bridge, can you cross it?
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sarah: i think you can come about it is a matter of, do your investors have the patience for it? target was one of the star performers of this retail earnings season. back in 2017 when they announced a $7 billion capital spending plan to refurbish their stores and improve their e-commerce operations, investors sold off the stock. they were not happy about this. but now we see that that effort really did bear fruit. the stores that are struggling, macy's, nordstrom, kohl's, they probably need to make more investment in their stores. the question is, will investors ever give them the least to do that? romaine: i've been doing some browsing for christmas. one thing that is frustrating, i haven't found a whole lot of great discounts yet. maybe that will change by friday. do the stores this holiday season have a little bit more pricing power than what they had in the past? sarah: i don't think so. on the one hand, consumers are
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feeling relatively upbeat, but the expectation is we've all been trained to look for discounts at this time of year, so if you haven't seen them yet, start looking at the promotions to in your email inbox soon. expectations online are that prices on electronics are going to be lowest the weekend of the whole holiday shopping season. for toys as well, that is the case. i think the discount confetti cannon is going to start ramping up very soon. gauge is theul a shopping season over the next few days in terms of giving us a clue to what is happening with the u.s. consumer? we've just had consumer confidence data out. it is weakening again. you can see some of the consumer demand that was there three quarters ago beginning to fade. do you expect what we are going to see over the next few days to gel with that signal of a slightly softening consumer? sarah: i don't think black
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friday and cyber monday tend to be good indicators of where the consumer is. i thing you have to look at the holiday season spending overall to get that snapshot. spending over black friday and cyber monday can be very shaped by the specific deals that are out there, and even by how it falls on the calendar. this is a year where black friday falls, the latest it could possibly fall. a lot of people may have already startedheir shopping last week or this week. read too much into what we see over black friday and cyber monday as reads of consumer health. i think you have to look at holiday spending overall to get that picture. romaine: sarah halzack of bloomberg opinion, always great to get your insight here. ahead of one of the biggest shopping days of the season here in the u.s., guy, but it turns out this tradition isn't just an american tradition anymore. stores being mobbed, people scouring websites across the globe.
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apparently the black friday tradition here in the u.s. now has international appeal. we are seeing it in the u.k., invesco, and a lot of other places -- the u.k., in mexico, in a lot of other places. from a u.k. retailer's point of view, this is really awful news. what used to happen is we had sales that started on boxing day here in the u.k., and basically in the run-up to christmas, everything would be full price. that was when the retailers made their money. but now you've got black friday that kind of takes that away, but you still got the tradition of the oxen day sales -- the boxing day sales, and it kinda be roads margins. this is bad news for british retailers. one american import retailers are not happy about at all. romaine: we are seeing it in other places. i guess with e-commerce and how we are all connected, we are all
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just one big world now. borders don't exist. guy: yeah. hmm. . i think recent evidence may be against that. romaine: coming up later today, i will be speaking with jamie nordstrom, nordstrom's president .f stores . we will talk about the changing retail space on how his company is preparing for the shorter holiday shopping season. we will have that interview at 2:30 in new york, 7:30 p.m. in london, so get home in time for that. stay with us. more in the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. romaine: from new york, i'm romaine bostick. this is "bloomberg markets." time now for our futures in focus segment. joining us is the chief market strategist over at the fox group.
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let's start with oil today. it has sorta been making a pretty decent move since they hit those recent lows we saw back at the end of september. but then when you look at it on a chart, it is still in a relatively tight range for most of the year. what gets it higher, if at all? scott: we have been in a tight range, and that is definitely confirmed if you look at the options. the open interest on the 60 line continues to build, as well as on the $55 puts. it's been in that tight range for quite some time. i think what is going to get it out of there, we are starting to get a little more ramp-up. that break of $58 today was definitely encouraging. right now, everything is going to determine the headline risk. if we get a deal with china, we are going to see that big bump in could push through the six dollar mark. if we get some other outside iran and iraq tensions
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increasing, it is just going to take one headline to push it over that $60 mark. romaine: even if we don't get a trade deal or all of the full details of it, as long as we have momentum and some optimism that some thing is getting done, does that affect lee what we are seeing in oil, but how does that translate into other assets you are watching? scott: for the commodities across the board with all the ags, some of the metals, even some of the bonds, the trade war is definitely a focus. that is what traders have been relying on. they've been trading off of the headline for quite some time now. when you have positive rhetoric out of the trade war talks, and a couple of hours later you have negative, you can see the fluctuation with price as far as the volatility moves. if you continue to have that rhetoric, volatility is going to be here to stay until we get something done in think. until that -- done in ink. until that happens, we expect at
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volatility. but if we get those positive headlines that something is being accomplished, we expect those prices to keep ramping up a little bit. romaine: scott, have a great thanksgiving. , chief market strategist for the fox group, joining us from the cme. guy: let's kick things off in the world of pizza. papa john's founder and former leader of the pizza chain john schnatter lasted the company again. he says he ate more than 40 pieces in a month and "it's not the same pizza." he also dumped on papa john's new ceo and said some executives should be jailed. giant money-laundering laundering scandal has led to ceo.ownfall of west bank's he's been accused of the biggest
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violation of money laundering laws and trillion history. based -- andrishan a subscription-based plan has been introduced at cosco -- at tesco at a time when consumers are shifting to online shopping. that is your bloomberg business flash. coming up, allianz global investors cio of global equities lucy macdonald is going to join us to count down to the european close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: china says phase one is on track after a call between washington and beijing, but 19 days until the next round of tariffs, the clock is very much taking. alibaba's hong kong debut sees
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stock surge, plus beijing sees demand for its $16 billion bond sale. -- aren't you kate u.k. stocks cheap? with the ftse 250 at a 15 month high, we are going to get a view from allianz global investors equity cio lucy macdonald. live from london, i'm guy johnson, with romaine bostick in new york. we are now counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ romaine: let's get a quick check on what is happening in the u.s. markets, coming off of yesterday's 24th record high for the s&p 500. a little bit of moderation today, not too surprising. as long as we stay in the green, that


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