meet the mandate for the for siebel future. polls are open and the you play -- are open in the u.k. they won't close until 10:00 p.m. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." "bloomberg markets -- on "bloomberg markets." ♪ getting a nice pop in u.s. markets. the s&p 500 up 0.9% following the president's tweet. the dow jones report that there might be some concessions made forgetting that phase i deal done. there's met to be a white house closed-door meeting today between the negotiators and president trump, so we will see what emerges from that. for now, the market has a positive view of things. that said, the can see no -- the casino and gaming index is the

best performing index in the s&p and that is more than get that going to is sending the likes of las vegas sands, caesar's, and all of the gaming stocks higher. the volume, as well, is massive in those stocks. the 10 year yield at 1.88% following the ecb this morning. that is a pretty good incline in .ields we were at 1.85% just a couple of days ago. definitely selling in bonds with more positive outlook for the economy. the dollar index repairing some of its declines. guy: stocks here in europe off their highs, but higher on that trumped week. bonds selling off, yields higher. the pound is trading lower. we are down by 0.6 percent.

the polls close at 10 a click p.m. london time tonight, 5:00 p.m. new york time -- at 10:00 p.m. london time tonight, 5:00 p.m. new york time. president trump indicating that we have a very big deal on the way, getting very close to a "big deal with china. they want it and so do we." it is that last bit that is important. the s&p leading an all-time high a little earlier on. just off that high now, but we are moving up. dow jones are reporting that negotiators have offered to canceled tariffs on chinese goods that were set to take effect on sunday. brendan murray, who leads our coverage of global trade, joins me no one trade. it sounds like we have a deal. brendan: it does.

when trump used the word deal today and said china once it and we want it, that sent a signal scenariomost bullish for investors might play out. he seems to be setting the table for an announcement soon, and the next 24 to 48 hours, in that regard. there's a meeting at the white house today with the trade team, where presumably they will hash out some of these issues, and by the looks of things, any escalation in the trade war we put on hold and a deal will be announced. vonnie: of course, that was clearly the way for a santa claus rally, i suppose. with this just be a phase i deal? is it possible to tell what it involves? chris: it is the phase i deal -- brendan: it is the phase i deal that was more or less announced. the chinese meeting a deal to purchase u.s. commodities, and

it would include presumably some rollbacks on u.s. tariffs, something china has said must be part of any sort of deal. we are looking at not just a cease-fire in the trade war, but a de-escalation in the amount of tariffs. guy: brendan, thinks very much indeed. brendan leads our global trade coverage. let's bring in our next guest to get some analysis. chris watling joining us on set come along view economics -- ceot, long view economics and chief market strategist. rollback and we see some of the tariffs coming off come give me a sense of the economic impulse that will generate. chris: i think if you look at a lot of markets and economists this year, the kind of been stalled by this trade deal. there are lots of other things going on. there's a mini cycle playing out under the surface. the main trend, really, and the

tariffs have confused it a bit. i think it will help with that, and i think it is already developing. the markets are saying that some of the data is starting to turn to green shoots. if you get a trade deal as well, it is just a little more icing on the cake. the cherry on top, if you will. vonnie: central banks have been busy the last couple of days. anything out of the fomc or the ecb, madame lagarde's first news briefing, to give pause to this market? chris: i would actually say the rivers. i thought some key comments out of jerome powell last night about allowing inflation to run a little bit hot were absently what the market needed to hear in terms of no rate hikes for an awful long time, and there may even be -- i don't think we are going to get more stimulus, but i think point is we leave it in the system for a long time. the primary market driver this year has not been earnings. earnings haven't really moved much. they are sort of contracting, the pinning on where you look and how you measure it, but call

it flat. what has been driving the market is liquidity. powell made it pretty clear last night they are not ready to take it away. what is the stock market continuing to risk? chris: there are always risks out there. we could get tomorrow, and suddenly there isn't a deal viviana: you never know -- isn't a deal. you never know with this trade situation. but markets look very attractive, and have done over the last few months. really, i thought markets look pretty overbought in early to mid november, and actually, they consolidated quite well as they unwound that excessive exuberance signal we saw back at the beginning of last month. that is very impressive price action. there's always things left of center. who knows? but the underlying picture with a mini cycle of swing, with portfolios that are defensively positioned, it is very positive for equity markets.

guy: what caught my eye this afternoon was the dollar went up on the back of this trade news, which is in some ways a bit of a surprise. it is going to benefit the u.s. economy, but the biggest casualty in the trade war has been europe. the biggest casualty has been germany. i would have thought that germany, and by extension the euro, would be the highs on this. chris: there's an argument for europe, but i think the dollar backed up as the yield backed up. it's the same trade, really. more yield and dollar reflecting it would be my guess. i think on a three to six month view, i think it might be a bit soggy or, but 12 months and beyond, we are in a secular bull market. the reason for that is the u.s. is the best growing economy sustainably in the world. europe has its swings in the global cycle. the u.s. has much more to it. much more yield. it's the one region in the world where people should put money for the long-term. do, if what would you

you got specific purposes that you would use that money for? chris: i think cyclicals will do well. we've seen they've been building at a relative base globally. they are starting to break to the upside, i think. it is happening with some of the global cyclicals as well. i would do that, and maybe some tech on the others. the thing not to have, of course, is its quality defensives. really, the stock market is andnsives, cyclicals, long-duration growth. i think bond yields go a lot higher from here, and the global economy swings up and favors cyclicals with some tech at the other end. vonnie: the thing about yield going higher, though, if neither central bank is seeing inflation anytime soon, why would yields

continue to rise? it's a curve steepen her. basically, the curve into spitting more growth coming through relative to the expeditions we've had, plus over and above that, it is unwinding risky version. the trade deal as part of that. that's why yields are up and equities are up. but also, the yield mover is telling about the market seeing some green shoots. look at the semiconductor sector. that has been trending on a global basis, and that is the best decatur out there. i think it is just into spitting more growth coming through. guy: chris is going to stick around. chris watling come along view watling, longhris view economics ceo and chief market strategist. vonnie: let's get a checkup markets with the kailey leinz. kailey: the stoxx 600 in europe higher by just about 0.6

percent. we are seeing outperformance in u.s. equities, with the dow higher by over 200 points. the nasdaq 100 up about their nasdaq -- and the s&p up about 0.9%. if we look at one-day percentage moves, we haven't actually had a move of that magnitude in two months, since back in october. it has been a struggle for the s&p 500 to see a gain of over 1% in recent weeks. we see it is the sectors heavily sensitive to tariffs that are really outperforming come of the likes of apparel and auto stocks, each of those indices up about 1.8% and 2% respectively. semiconductors are heavily sensitive to each and every develop meant as it relates to china trade. right now the socks index up by about 2.25%. the kbw bank index up by more

than 2%, in tandem with the massive moves we are seeing in yields to the higher degree, up about eight points. those higher yields are good for bank stocks. such take a look at the farm space, both in terms of farm equip and companies like deere about 1.5% today, as well as corn and cotton. agriculture is front and center in a phase i trade deal, and the market is feeling pretty up to those odds. vonnie: are thinks to kailey leinz for that market update. remember the function gtv on the bill burck -- on the bloomberg. catch up on kin analysis, save your favorites for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check in with the first word news. he could go to has the details. ritika: u.s. negotiators reportedly marking a new deal in the interim trade deal with china. according to "the wall street journal," they've offered to cut existing tariffs on $350 billion of chinese goods, plus willing to cancel new tariffs set to take effect sunday. in return, the u.s. wants firm commitments by the chinese to buy more farm products. the house judiciary committee set to conclude a debate on articles of impeachment against president trump today. the likely result is a partyline result that would send the measures to the floor of the house. this morning, the democrat majority is expected to be back a number of republican amendments. north korea is lashing out at

the u.s. for its criticism of pyongyang's ballistic missile tests. the u.s. called the action hostile provocation. north korea called the comments foolish, and said the u.s. may have blown its chance to salvage their negotiations. this comes weeks ahead of a deadline set by leader kim jong-un for washington to offer mutually accessible terms to revise nuclear talks. aramco shares rose again on their second day of trading. at times, the saudi oil giant's market value surpassed the $2 trillion mark, which alienated global investors. it ended today at slightly less than five or put -- at slightly less than 5% higher. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. the european central bank sees

rate policy unchanged at christine lagarde's first meeting as president of the bank. words forfamiliar first, while seeing the policy review since 2003. risingarde: protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets remain tittle to the downside come up -- remained tilted to the downside, but have become somewhat less pronounced. vonnie: we saw european yields react as well to those statements. back with us now is chris ceoing, longview economics and chief market strategist. i'm curious as to where you see european yields go following this obvious sort of announcement that the european central bank continues to be very supportive. chris: it's good they are supportive, but it is also good

she talked about the risks somewhat dissipating, i think is somewhat the tone of the clip you just showed us. i would agree with that. globally, the economy is picking up. we see that in u.s. yields, and bund yields will follow that sort of trend. don't seem to trade up with as much volatility as treasuries, so i think that gap will widen the bit, but you see bund yields making their way back closer towards the zero level. that would be my expectation. vonnie: what would that mean for any government that would intent none some kind of fiscal stimulus, the german government being the obvious one? negativeelds are still , so if they go above it, it will not be that far above it. basically money not costing much at all. think it is very encouraging. it shouldn't change the game much to whatever we are now.

it is actually still very good for the german government to issue into that. for germany, the issue is really whether they need it for growth, not the price they are going to pay for it. i think that is the real question. what will be interesting is what lagarde does in terms of trying to get some climate change this goal may be paid for by the central bank. the comes out of the strategic review they are talking about. there's clearly a shift globally to accommodate fiscal and monetary policy in some kind of helicopter money that is actually an infrastructure project, or whatever it is. clearly the world's policymakers are moving the way they think. guy: a still helicopter potentially. -- a stealth helicopter potential he. [laughter] guy: do you think christine lagarde is more open to buying different forms of assets then perhaps draghi was. talk seen von der leyen about a new green deal. you could see a link up with the ecb potentially taking some of that green debt in talked about.

chris: it seems they are shifting that way. personally, i thank this is quite dangerous. it is really the central bank moving into actually making policy. guy: that's why they picked lagarde, wasn't it? chris: i think it is crossing another line. plenty have been crossed over the last decade, but we are edging ever closer to stealth helicopter money, if you like. the signals have been quite strong this year. thought the paper that sam fisher co-authored earlier was quite a mark in the ground. guy: does this get the ecb to its mandate of close to 2% inflation? the new projections today, we ain't there yet. i am wondering if this gets us there. chris: it may get us there temporarily, but they haven't really got the inflation projections for the last decade. their models have over forecast inflation pretty much at every

central bank around the world. i'm not sure we get any sustainable basis. we might touch it, but i wouldn't focus on that. the system is clearly broken. vonnie: so what about the fed? do we see any interest rate increases next year? chris: out of the states? i don't think we get the fed increasing rates next year, but i do think towards the end of the year, they may be in a position to start talking about raising rates. i think what will be interesting is what they do with the repo program. that liquidity is definitely providing a lot of upside momentum to markets. it concerns me that when they remove it, there may be some challenges. i would watch the repo program closely, but by the end of the year, i wouldn't be surprised if they are starting to talk a hike into the curve. vonnie: do you think there are actually imbalances here, that the reaper program could start repo programthe could start something?

chris: i think it is another example of some brokenness in the system that needs to be addressed properly. doing more of a semipermanent program. it's qe, but not qe. all of these factors worry me, that there are some real issues under the surface that reflect the financial is asian of the world system -- that reflect the financialization of the world system. over the last 10 years, the s&p has done annualized 10%. over the next 10 years? are we entering a decade of low returns, similar returns? what can i expect if i am planning my pension or whatever it is? higher or lower than the last 10 years? chris: i think we are in a secular bull market for u.s. equities, and maybe halfway

through, so i would say the same-ish, but there will be a bear market somewhere, and that will be painful. i think you've got to time it and u.s. at a location around it, but yes, the u.s. is still the place to be. guy: sounds easy. chris watling, longview economics, thank you very much indeed. we will bring you special coverage of the u.k. election right here on bloomberg television. don't miss the action that kicks off when polls close. 5:00is 10:00 p.m. on time, p.m. -- 10:00 p.m. london time, 5:00 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ vonnie: it's time now for the latest bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. bloomberg has learned fiat chrysler and psa group are aiming to sign a formal

agreement next week to combine into the world's fourth biggest car manufacturer, according to people familiar with the matter. progress being made on a memorandum of understanding. meantime, there may be a bit of a tete-a-tete between fiat chrysler's unionized workers. they have a new contract. the uaw says 70% of voting members approved the new deal, the last of three agreements negotiated this year by the union. fiat chrysler promised $9 billion in investment and that it would create 7900 jobs. shares of lululemon lower after another quarter of double-digit sales growth, but that wasn't enough to boost the stock has already almost doubled this year. the market expected lululemon to be flawless. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. we saw a nice bounce at the beginning of the session, holding for the most part,

although author highs of the day. 1%.s&p 500 up about 2/3 of the nasdaq still up 0.5%. guy: european stocks are higher. we are up by anywhere between 0.5% and 1%. the ftse 100 outperforming slightly. cars, sector resources being bid. on the bottom half of the market, it is the bond proxies. utilities, food and beverage, real estate trading lower. the european close is coming up next. we will analyze all of the action today. this is bloomberg. ♪

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earlier on. you are seeing markets trading up on the back of this expectation we do get a deal. there are mixed messages from other parts of the u.s. administration. there is only one key voice you need to listen to, and that is the president. this is the session. for a weight on the stoxx 600. you can see the effect the president had in the united states. negative before that week came out. it has driven the market up. we are up around .5%. relative to where we were, this has certainly turned around. individual markets look like this. outperformance from london. we have a dax up .7%. the german exports story is where you look in europe for a reaction to a trade story. that is up .7%. the cac 40 up around .5%. in terms of the sectors, this is where it gets interesting in

terms of the narrative. if you look at the top end of the market, banks have done well. beta play. high christine lagarde did not sound positive, but she sounded less negative in terms of the outlook for the euro zone economy. you also had a few individual stories. cars doing reasonably well. minors doing reasonably well. those are three trade related economy related, macro related sectors doing better today. the bottom end of the market, the bond proxies, real estate, food and beverage, and the utility sector, all of those on offer today. you're getting a risk on rotation coming through into the market. individual names, a few worth focusing on. worth paying attention to and probably explain why you see outperformance from 11. balfour, a construction company,

it's outlook generating seen it get upgrades. it is up 4%. standard chartered looks like it will offload its indonesian business. upndard chartered trading 3.8. metro not looking so positive. the retailer down 3% on the dax. the session turning around as a result of what came through from the president. vonnie: and we saw that in the united states as well. a risk this morning. we are also time now, but the .66%.0 still up also headlines out of dow jones that the u.s. might be making concessions to china and that would lead to a phase one deal. the dollar index almost off its lows, threatening to go through 97 yesterday, but we are off now. the 10 year yield is up to 1.89.

we were above 1.90 a few minutes ago. the idea fed will raise oil next year. the vix is pretty comp. let's take -- is pretty calm. let's take a look at the s&p. it looks like china might be making it easier for the ip's and domestic chinese to damp -- to gamble in macau. that would be a lasso -- that would be a massive boom for everybody in las vegas. we also have the retailers that have been having a terrible time , gap and l brands up. american airlines is a reaction to delta earnings. it beat and it looks like the other airlines might have a better quarter than first anticipated good similar to europe, some of the homebuilders are the worst performers. let's turn to the emerging markets and the growth of entrepreneurship in africa. bloomberg's jason kelly spoke to

the ceo equity group, kenya's largest lender. they asked him how that bank got its start. >> the first 10 years were very difficult. we cannot break even so we became solvent by the seventh year. >> that is a tough track. >> a tough track record. the losses we had accumulated were 30 times the capital we started with. asentially we developed business model that was appropriate for the individual entrepreneur and we became a bank for the medium enterprises, -- now we arey the largest bank in nairobi in terms of market caps and the largest bank in eastern and central at three, just eastern

and central africa. -- eastern and central africa. >> when you think about your customer, help us understand who they are. are they in all types of businesses? as you look down the list, what are the fastest growing areas you see? james: we are a very inclusive bank. people graduate up. they become small, they become medium. the same with individuals. --y start is location individuals continue to grow. the biggest growing segment is the medium enterprise. skill. where you find -- they now become the face of african

entrepreneurship. >> what i love about this, and i remember talking about microloans, what you can do with a small amount of money, the impact you can have on a family. i think about what you are doing that allows people to have a financial identity, create a means for themselves and their family, and kind of work up the value chain. it impacts the country they are in as well. james: that is true. african entrepreneurship, capitalism in africa is at the individual level, the entrepreneur level. that individual has an immediate family and an extended family. when they start with a small enterprise, they provide jobs for the entire family. they take care of the education of the entire family. essentially, they become a catalyst. significantare very -- small loans have very significant impact because of

the individual capitalism. africa is not company based. we do not have huge companies. it is small businesses that aggravate to the african economy. to the aggregate economy. vonnie: equity group ceo speaking earlier. for more insight on equity group, let's bring in damian sassower. you work closely with equity group. you saw its operations. how does a company like that deal with an economy like kenya's? damian: i think he hit it on the head. equity banks focus on small and medium enterprises. when i say small and medium you cannot compare them to what we are seeing in the u.s.. the fabric way into of the capital markets and making it more digital, easy to transact. it will probably be the first country on the planet that can go completely digital because of

the integration between the telecom sector and finance and banks. it is quite amazing. kenya is a rare exception within africa. within broader emerging markets in terms of its ability to stimulate its economy and to stimulate growth. guy: talking about trying to stimulate growth, the turkish central bank setting rates much lower than anticipated. erdogan clearly pushing for more. the president wants lower rates. my question is is he going to deliver the economic stimulus the president hopes for, and what are the risks around it considering what is happening with inflation. damian: that was just one inflation, right? the fact of the matter is if you look at turkish performance unity across all asset classes it has recovered nicely. i remember the dennis: bus talking in early may and -- i remember the two of us talking in early may. sit, it-- from where i

has been does things. -- i think itira was running an account deficit of 6.5% just 15 months ago. now it is in surplus. that has rectified the ship. half of those local elections, which we were talking about, fiscal spend. the government injected a lot of fiscal stimulus ahead of the elections. that has worked its way into the economy. now that that is behind us, what happens next? do additional rate cuts matter? the verdict is still out. if you just look at the next 12 months ahead, the reliance on the turkish banking system on external funding, i am talking 60 billion u.s. dollars of external funding in the next 12 months, that is a big liquidity overhang and creates a lot of risk. vonnie: it is interesting how the different central banks are dealing with their individual

problems, that might on the surface look similar but respond very differently since we've been talking about kenya. kenya is doing something similar. damian: you hit the nail on the head. it is about central-bank credibility. the bank of kenya has become a credible institution and the currency has stabilized in recent months. you see money coming back into kenya. you're not seeing anything like that in turkey. if you do not have foreign capital inflows into turkey, how will they find themselves? i do not see it. growth will pick up. this is an economy that was running at 5% plus, it will mainly go 3% next year. it needs to grow quicker in order to pay off its creditors. vonnie: thank you as always for the intelligence. he is from bloomberg intelligence. that is damian sassower. guy: first word news time. here is ritika gupta. ritika: the house judiciary

committee is approaching a historic vote on president trump . lawmakers are voting on amendments. at the end of the date they will be asked whether to send the two articles of impeachment to the house for about. applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose to a two year high. jobless claims increased to 252,000 last week. that reflects the volatility around the thanksgiving holiday. the underlying trend is a tight labor market. employees are reluctant to dismiss workers. a warning from the international energy agency says global oil markets still face a surplus next year. that is even if opec and its allies deliver newly announced production cuts. the iea estimates inventories will grow by 700,000 barrels a day, even if the forecasts are implemented. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

. am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much, indeed. up quick look at where the european stocks have settled. tweet higher by the trade from president trump. these are the final numbers. a little biting up toward the end of the session. up 1%. the dax dipping, as did the cac 40 and the final seconds. carrying on the coverage of the top of the hour. jonathan ferro and i will be taking you through all of the action today, from the fed last night to the ecb in frankfurt today to what is happening on trade. that is at the top of the hour on dab digital radio and the london area and around the world on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: time for the bloomberg quicktake. the european union has a new weapon in the fight against climate change. it has been vetting environmental standards for banks, money managers, and insurers. stepdaughters -- skeptics worn some of the changes could learn urszulala or line -- willer leyne -- the eu will have to decide which activities are considered green and which are not. will have tos disclose how they incorporate environmental factors into investment decisions. fitch warns preferential treatment for sustainable investment could underestimate financial rest. the ecb says banking supervision should focus on the risk faced

by regulated firms and not on political goals. that is today's quicktake. guy: time for stock of the hour. it is ralph lauren. shares of the clothing maker are rising on headlines that tariffs could be cut by 15% on $360 billion worth of chinese imports. used to have 40% of its supply chain based in china. taylor riggs has more. taylor: ralph lauren is one of the clear winners from all of the headlines we are getting on trade. they have been sourcing 40% of their supply chain out of china. they want to cut that down to 22% and they said in 2021 they are looking to cut down sourcing from china to the midteens. really benefiting those positive headlines from china given they have raised a lot of their prices due to these tariffs. it is not just ralph lauren but all of the big retailers benefiting from this potential

trade relief. tapestry, hanes brands, they are one to 3%. where we get the products we buy from these companies? 53% are made in china. half of overcoats and underwear are made in china. sportswear and footwear as well, 40% of those come from china. all of these companies rising bringing the exposure overseas. bringing it back full circle, i want to end on ralph lauren. a lot of the revenue was coming from asia. they are getting 17% of the revenue from asia, up from 12% three years ago. this is as they reduce their revenue they are getting from the north american market, so all of this giving a boost to the company shares. vonnie: thank you. that is bloomberg's taylor riggs. time your latest bloomberg business flash, look at some of the latest business stories in the news. apple is getting a bruising in

china. according to tread it -- according to credit suisse, ships there plunged from the previous november. a bigger thansays expected performance for the iphone 11 models, however. mcdonald's is set for a high stake labor show down with some white house allies. the national labor relations board is scheduled to rule soon firing ofe of the prounion mcdonald's workers. employeestrump's could absolve mcdonald's of any responsibility. isiott management criticizing the restructuring fan of pg&e, the bankrupt utilities. elliott says it jeopardizes pg&e's longtime health. elliott is one of pg&e's biggest creditors. it is up to gavin newsom to decide whether to ok pg&e's puzzle to pay $13.5 billion to wildfire victims. elliott has asked newsom to help

kill the plan. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: do not forget we will bring you special coverage of the u.k. election tonight. the polls close at 10:00, 5:00 p.m. in new york. that is when we will start delivering analysis on what the exit polls are telling us. it all kicks off at 10:00 p.m. gmc, 5:00 eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...

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vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. you can see the charts on the bloomberg by running gtv . kicking things off is alix steel. alix: this is the story of one line meaning many different things to different investors. the blue line is the federal funds rate. as it goes down, you see the blue bars go up those are inflows into bold etf. as it levels off and the fed is at neutral, they will not hike or cut, you are seeing outflows

from the bold etf that echoes jp morgan's call they are buying risk and will be shorting gold, buying things like european equities, german equities, and em. the blue line is exactly why goldman sachs is bullish on gold the samei echoed thing, saying they could see 1600 next year. interpretations, but significant for the market. you can see the chart on the bloomberg at gtv . vonnie: i love it. well done. guy, what you have? guy: the msci index hitting a record early on today and this is a steep rebuke for all of those who talked at the end of the summer in august about the fact that we were heading for a global recession. this also ties back to the central bank story. why we have seen action coming out of the major central banks around the world, the ecb and the fed are the ones you want to think about, you have seen huge

amounts of easing taking place around the world. it is basically coming from the emerging markets all the way through to some of the big developed markets. what that has done is we have basically found ourselves in a situation where a lot of the heavy lifting has been done by u.s. equity markets. we are now starting to see the global market story, the global equity market story starting to catch up. this is interesting going into 2020. the effects of all of that cutting around the world will drive equity markets globally. are you still going to yet the outperformance in the united states that investors have come to rely on or do you need to start looking elsewhere? huge turnaround from the august situation where we were talking about a global recession. that has not turned out to be the case. we can point to central banks for that. you can find all of these charts on gtv . vonnie: excellent as always. the standard never decreases in we are looking at one of your

charts. that said, today i'm going to give the crown to alix steel. well done. i am sure you'll be telling us more about the gold calls on "commodities edge" coming up at 1:00 eastern, 6:00 london time. coming up in the united states, "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. he has news from the house and senate on the usmca trade deal with republican michael mccaul and kevin cramer. we are off our highs for the session. a nice bounce on trade headlines . a potential phase one deal. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power,"

where the world of politics meets the world of business. we will start today with anna edgerson in washington. we have a lot to talk about with trade. we had the president tweeting this morning we are close to a big deal. what we make of that? heading toward the december 15 deadline where tariffs are set to go up on products from china. the question is whether you the united states will decide to put off those tariffs. that will be a signal we look for going forward to the final stage of negotiations with the phase one trade deal. if the tariffs are not put in place on december 15, that is a good sign for the negotiations. david: where does usmca stand? why are we getting it turned into legislation? anna: it takes a little bit of time to write the implementing bill and nancy pelosi worried about this, saying it will take time to