tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg December 18, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST
the bank of england to lower rates at the end of 2020. and goldman sachs pulls back the curtains. we look ahead to investor day with wells fargo senior analyst mike mayo. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: checking u.s. markets, we are seeing a slight gain for the three major averages. dish leading the s&p higher, and some retailers, macy's about 4% higher. gaming companies up more than 3% apiece, and cigna is up 2.8%. the dollar index is above 97. the 10 year yield is at a recent high of 1.90%. fedex is one of the loan sufferers today, down about 10% right now. in europe, i suppose it is a
mixed bag. the dax is down almost 0.5%. the carmakers dragging on the dax. the ftse 100 is a different story, up 0.3%. some individual companies making gains. the british pound's giving back more of the gains of the week, $1.3075. pearson up after giving up the penguin random house it owns. let's get to more with luke kawa, bloomberg cross asset reporter. it seems like this market is more and more moving on individual company names and less on a trade resolution or british election resolution. luke: definitely. we've taken a step back from the macro. that we are not really looking ahead to anything. we are just kind of in stall
right now, waiting for the rest of the year to play out. yesterday we tied for the smallest range in s&p 500 futures of the year. we are getting a sense that last week was all of the big risk, and no we are winding down. can year yield climbing higher could be the story of the year as we close it out for one more macro perspective. vonnie: we only have a few more sessions left. we certainly are not selling off, but we also are really not seeing profit-taking, are we? the: it is interesting extent to which people aren't looking to grab profits. it may be a case of they want to show investors at the end of the year that they are indeed holding the names that have done well. i do believe the extent to which you have seen hedging last week rather than just cutting risk on any bad news or ahead of any potentially negative catalyst is a sign that people are more willing to hold risk. you don't hedge unless you also
own, to a large extent, so that is probably a positive sign. it jives with what we see also in more euro-dollar options, euro-dollar volatility collapsing. people think the fed has mission accomplished. they think the cycle has renewed, and that makes you more willing to hold risk then cut it. vonnie: unless you are a british pound holder, in which case you have been selling the last few sessions. move interpreted as in the markets, just a reversal of some recent moves? are we still in a trading range? luke: someone at columbia threadneedle tweeted out yesterday, when we had the post boris election majority news, that basically market was thinking this was definitely in the rearview mirror. then when you had the introduction of, uncertainty we thought was leaving, just coming back in. so that is going to be
something, especially if weaker hands were getting involved in forcing a piling in after the results came in. vonnie: let's talk about some of the more interesting things going on today in the markets. we have these gaming stocks higher, wynn and so many of those. that is a macau story. macau to more consumption by chinese consumers, right? luke: but i love about this story the most is how much it squares with the 2020 trade. everyone wants to put on. not only are you see casinos, can seo -- casinos, casino operators doing well today, but
over the past five years, the ratio of emerging markets to the s&p 500 tends to loosely track the change in macau gaming revenue. this is something that should, in theory, help those operators in the stock prices of the associated casinos. this is also everyone's favorite 2020 trade. go to emerging markets, play catch up. it is really interesting how the micro is aligning with the macro to keep a good correlation going. vonnie: are we done with the trades trade? as income our suppliers pricing and that we have some kind of deal? in that we have some kind of deal? are semiconductors priced? for notey are priced only nothing to get worse on trade, but also a recovery on pricing for them at the end of the inventory cycle. it is interesting to note this is the year in which trade tensions ratcheted up meaningfully before we got a phase i deal. yet, if you look at the companies with the highest share of revenues to china, those have drastically outperformed, even algos into the
equation. vonnie: i want to ask about fedex. it has literally lost 1/10 of its market cap today. it is trying to compete with ups. why is it not able to match up to its peers? luke: that is the question, but i am glad you are framing this in the way you are asking this, it is not necessarily a trade story. ups, transports up solidly this year. a lot of the bad news we had in this space was known. it seems to be a management issue. whenever you are cutting profit guidance to quarters in a row, it is probably a good thing. earnings have not been kind to this stock. there really does seem to be some kind of issue here with the inability to control costs, and that continuously running ahead of schedule continues to weigh
on the stock. vonnie: how closely are they watching the impeachment today? luke: it would be tough to cs getting new information today. i think everything that has been known about impeachment has been known for quite a while. if some senators come out and say something different today, that would be new, but nothing we are seeing today is really news to the market. vonnie: thank you so much. always our guiding light. luke kawa, bloomberg news cross asset reporter. let's check global markets now with kailey leinz. kailey: we are looking at a bit of a mixed picture. not a lot of conviction in equities today. 0.1s&p 500 up about percent, while the stoxx 600 is really flat. the nasdaq, a bit of outperformance, up by about 0.2% now. the msci emerging markets index is at its highest in 18 months, higher for a sixth straight day, as is the s&p 500.
this trading is coming with not a lot of action. if we look at the trading range on the s&p 500, luke mentioned that in your conversation just now, yesterday the s&p 500 was just about the tightest it has been since december 2017. with the moves we have seen so far in the session today, the trading range is looking even tighter. we are not getting a lot of action as we head into the holiday. where you are seeing more action today is the transport space. the big drag is fedex, which is now lower by almost 10% after second quarter in a row that it cut its forecast. that dragged on its peer ups as well, despite the fact that fedex has been underperforming. to take a also want look at another asset, which is oil. wti now in positive territory after inventory data 40 mins ago showed that oil may be heading for its fifth consecutive day of
vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check in on first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: the house is in session for a historic vote to impeach president trump, accused of abuse of power and obstruction of congress. democrats control the chamber and appeared to have the votes to approve the articles of impeachment. that would lead to a trial in
the republican-controlled senate next month. the president tweeted his outrage today, saying, "i did wrong." the trump administration once americans to pay less for prescription medication. the government unveiled a plan today to loosen restrictions on importing foreign drugs and get more inventory from canada. that incited backlash in canada, where some said it could lead to shortages of critical medicine. among americang teenagers more than doubled in the past two years. according to the university of michigan, about one out of five high school students has vaped marijuana in the last year. in fact, marijuana vaping has been growing faster than nicotine vaping. it will be a 50-50 merger of two automotive dynasties. maker psaler and zhou group have signed off on a merry -- and peugeot maker psa group
led signed off on a merger by psa's ceo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. . . this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. goldman sachs kicking off 2020 its first-ever investor day after the new year. according to analyst mike mayo, it will shed light on what has often been a black box. he and other analysts will also want to hear about the company culture, which is changing rapidly. we are joined by mike mayo of wells fargo, and joining us is julie albright from the university of southern california. mayot to mention that mike is increasing his 2020 price to $280n goldman sachs from $240.
let's ask you how come you got involved with julie working on this particular note? you are specifically looking at the culture inside goldman and how it is changing. mike: you can't be a bank analyst without being a part-time tech analyst, so i have my hoodie to reflect that. as it applies to goldman sachs, this is not your grandfather's goldman sachs. this is more of a modern tech firm. two statistics on goldman sachs employees. one out of every goldman sachs employee is a technologist. 60% of goldman employees are under 30. this is not a baby boomer firm. this is more of a firm that is digital natives. now we see goldman sachs coming out with all these changes to accommodate the digital natives. at first, i was like, what are they doing? this seems like a bunch of platitudes, a bunch of lipservice. then i read dr. albright's book,
and i was educated by that, and also followed up in conversations with dr. albright. fromlbright helped take me the 20th century to the 21st century when it comes to understanding culture and tech culture, and the modern culture of corporations. vonnie: there are parts of it the is specifically not classic tech culture. 60% under the age of 30, as mike said. dr. albright, how does your work apply to an investment bank? does this type of change need to happen across corporate america? is it harder for an investment bank to make this kind of change? dr. albright: i think when you look at goldman, they are not competing. this is really a war for talent. they are not competing with other banks. they are competing with facebook and google and apple for the
best talent. my book looks at how societal norms are changing around digital natives, what i call the untethered generation. goldman is simply reflecting some of these changes that are happening in larger society. for example, they've brought out some very specific new policies, like a casual dress code, which was really tipped off by steve jobs and his iconic black turtleneck at apple. a policy where you can take pictures at work, for the always on, always connected generation. things like sustainability policies, where 1/3 of students now choose their college based on their green sustainability policies and practices. students graduating into the corporate world are going to be looking at firms to see how they reflect that value set. thing, the idea of transparency or authenticity, where you have a ceo who
moonlights as a dj on the weekends. vonnie: i would suggest that perhaps this is the bare minimum for a company in the modern era, in this day and age, to attract talent. after that, it is down to their business line. obviously, this is going to help them attract the best talent. they needed to do this just for that reason alone. but how much does that translate to the bottom line if it is not translating into their business? mike: in my 30 years as a bank analyst, when i talk to the actual investors, this does not come up one time. when it comes to sustainability, green initiatives, everything else goldman sachs is doing. that is why i was so skeptical. how does this relate to the earnings stream from now until infinity? but i have to say, after talking to dr. albright and doing more research, i realized i need to modernize. employees care about this. customers care about this. there are more questions about
this, and reputational benefits certainly come from this. i would say the banking industry has been a laggard when it comes to keeping up with modern cultural norms. at first, i thought that goldman sachs, it might be way out there. now i realize that goldman sachs is simply on the vanguard for society changes when it comes to culture. vonnie: dr. albright, you mentioned policies like longer parental leave, being more friendly to a more diverse group of people, more environmentally aware. these are all things you anticipate from every company nowadays, but it is actually slow adoption. how will the other banks follow suit? will they take goldman's lead? dr. albright: i think mike and yourself are making a good point here. banking is a conservative industry. they are not going to be at the vanguard of the exchanges like silicon valley might be. but they need to adapt or die at this point in time.
they are kind of a laggard in terms of these changes to attract this younger workforce, but they are making the changes. in that sense, they are leading the way in this industry. what is it you want to hear from goldman management in their first ever investor day? it is such a change from what used to be such an opaque company. mike: it will be the first bank to have a segment in their investor day on green and sustainability initiatives. that is usually for people who vote proxies, not investors. but the biggest issue for goldman sachs is growth. if you look at the last five it has been 0%. years, it was 6%. goldman has underperformed. we want to look at the targets of where the financials should go for a great company over the
last -- great company that, over the last few years has not performed well. you get a year to position yourself, but now it is time to deliver the goods. on january 29, we want to see some concrete metrics on how they are going to improve growth. vonnie: we have been between 10 brief and 13% -- between 10% and 13%. what part of the bank will solomon lead on? mike: we think they will be above 13%, better than the recent range they have been in. it is consistent with the technology theme, more box for bankers, better control of non-comp and comp expenses, and you've had efforts now -- they are the fourth largest private equity player out there. but they are not grouped that way. they don't give you much information about it. the black stones of the world
trade at much higher valuations. you get a little since that they are a little mini-blackstone. they are standing in investment banking. they've always been number one with mergers with the largest firms. they are expanding to 2000 additional middle-market firms in middle banks. in classachs has best relationships with ceos around the world, and they are number one when doing business with them. when it comes to business driven by the chief financial officers, things like cash management or lending, they are not of good. we will have to see how they are going to break down those silos to leverage those relationships to the rest of those corporations. vonnie: i want to address the question to you. how much does corporate change come from the top, and how much does it depend on exactly who you hire, how much you pay them, and how open and progressive
they are? dr. albright: i think it does have to come from the top, and it can't just be platitudes, as mike was mentioning before. you have to see faces that reflect diversity. you have to see enacted policies and not just lip service to these things. again, i think this firm can attract that top talent. he mentioned blackstone. a lot of these firms are moving towards tech, so they are adopting some of these new norms, and that is going to keep them competitive and fresh. vonnie: i just want to ask, how much does pay come into it at the end of the day? mike: i've been going to annual meetings for most of this decade. you need to see pay links to performance. it is ok if you do well to get paid a lot, but when you don't meet targets, you need to have pay reduced. we will be watching old men and the other banks -- we will be watching goldman and the other banks. vonnie: looking for your turn
report -- to your next report. at that is mike male of wells .argo, and julie albright thank you. house democrats are preparing for a historic double vote today on articles of impeachment against president trump. we will bring you all of the diplomats as they occur. this is a procedural vote right now. we are expecting the impeachment vote at about 7:30 this evening. this is bloomberg. ♪
after buying express scripts. tesla may cut the price of its china made model three sedan by 20% or more next year. tesla is betting the move will lure buyers in the world's largest market for electric vehicles. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. let's take a look at where european markets are trading just a few minutes before the close. dax still down about 0.4%. the cac 40 has come back to pretty much flat. the ftse 100 still showing some 0.4%. 29 points, up pearson one of the higher performers there. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
and northern ireland. in the green. the dax and germany down .4%. with morespain sessions that are positive. a fat session for france. let's take a look in depth at what is going on. the ftse 100 up .4%. their individual stories. pearson is getting out of penguin random house and the ceo is stepping up next year. that has pearson up 2.5%. rallyingobacco is also on bank of america merrill lynch who says there will not be any regulatory pressure or outcome to the vaping situation or menthol cigarettes being banned. that is providing a bit of a headwind. up 1.3%. pearson is the top mover in the u.k.. up to percent. daimler is one of the auto stops
in germany, down 1.2%. that is one of the stocks that has the dax down at the end of the session. let's move on and take a look at where we are in the united states. up .2% for the s&p 500. slowly and gradually crawling to the 3200 mark, but it is certain we are not seeing a selloff or much of a rally, at least yet. data onlly the gdp friday will change things. a slight selloff in treasuries. the 10 year yield at 1.93. i guess we are still in the 20 point basis point range. euro a little weaker, 1.1120. a little bit of a tick up in the vix index. nothing to write home about. in the united states, macy's doing well. also the gaming companies, wynn resorts higher by more than 3%.
quite big moves the upside. some of the retailers doing well and reversing some of the declines from earlier in the year. all brands doing well. -- l brands doing well. fedex is the worst, a string of negative earnings reports and not managing to keep up with ups. trade is part of the problem. ups is also down. i guess is that a bit of a difficult time for delivers these days. policymakers at the bank of england expect to -- when they announced their latest decision tomorrow. the potential for a hard brexit could increase the odds of rate cuts. our reporter joins us from london. deutsche bank saying we make it a move from the bank of england as early as january. your reporting saying that by the end of 2020 we will most
likely see some type of move from the bank of england. james: that is right. looking at about an 80% chance of a rate cut by the end of next year, which is quite a turnaround after the general election result on friday. markets were positive about the outcome, especially boris , and its large majority reduces the probability of rate cuts. after he set out plans to counsel the possible extension of the transition period, money market traders are placing bets on further rate cuts and pushing the odds up of rate cuts further into 2020. vonnie: why would january be on the cards? we are almost at january already. could we see enough economic data that would warrant a rate move from the bank of england? james: january is quite early in the schedule, looking at other
analysts, they are looking further on toward the middle of next year or even later. fromwe get a transition mark carney onto the next governor. we will not have much data from -- heading into the end of the year to make a deficit -- to make a definite decision. , iterms of market pricing is very low. after that, it is the middle of next year. it will pick up. vonnie: what will point us in that direction? how will the bank of england you sure they are not moving too soon? how we know this is a trend that will last long enough to warrant a change in monetary policy? james: we should look at the
data that came out recently. the factory data that came out recently, manufacturing pmi's for the lowest in six years or seven years. if that continues, especially in light of the surprise from boris johnson in terms of looking to cancel any extension of the transition. that feeds through the larger economy, we could see the bank of england, especially other policymakers in joining us in seeking rate cuts. vonnie: thank you for that. much appreciated. that is bloomberg's james hirai in london. our stock of the hour is tesla. shahrzad an all-time high after revealing plans in china. taylor riggs is in san francisco with the details. 16%, thisar to morning more than 2% after tesla and some people are speculating they could be cutting those
model three prices by 20% or more starting next year. a slowing help offset down in the chinese electric vehicle market. they are hoping this would help spur some of the demand, lowering costs and help lower some of the component costs and make more of those vehicles locally, it would help avoid some of the tariffs. you are importing fewer parts. all of this is good news for tesla this morning. we want to take a look and another chart inside the terminal, which is to combat the slowing market. as you can see, china is the biggest ev market in the world and the problem is that has been slowing every month so far in the last year or so. toy lower those prices down $50,800, it could be lowered more in the second half of 2020 and again trying to help offset some of that slowing market and get a big boost and defend some
of the market share by lowering those prices in china. vonnie: 51,000, and that is just the basic price? sounds pretty rich to me, but i do not know anything about tesla. production targets in shanghai, will they change? taylor: the production targets are interesting because elon musk has said within the shanghai factory, they are targeting 1000 cars a week. they have been looking at hitting that number in the california plan for months, and it took them a while to ramp up reduction. at least now california were targeting 3000 a week. that would be an interesting target if they were to do that. sort of defending the market share, hoping to get 1000 cars a week. it is putting pressure on the other makers as tesla looks to be making some big moves in china. vonnie: taylor riggs in san francisco. let's check it on the blue merck
word news with ritika gupta. ritika: a historic day on capitol hill. after hours of debate, the democratic-controlled chamber is expected to make donald only the third u.s. president to be impeached. is accused of abuse of power and obstruction of congress. impeachment would set the stage for a trial in the senate next month. the republicans who control that chamber have made it clear they will acquit the president. conceding defeat on trying to stop a gas project between russia and germany. american officials have long -- officials have long perceived to the nord stream 2 project as a threat to european security. governor isrve raising red flags over facebook's proposed libra project. she told an audience the digital currency could pose a danger to consumers and financial stability. she also said it could be a
valuable tool to criminals. india's top court will take a look at the country's proposed religion-based citizen jack -- citizenship act. discriminatoryis because it bars undocumented muslims from pakistan, afghanistan, and bangladesh from seeking citizenship but allows others to do so. prime minister modi's government has promised to push ahead and implement the law. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. let's check where our european stocks have settled. we have the ftse 100 pairing some of its gains in the last few minutes, up .2% at the close. down .5% atermany the close. the cac 40 also moving off their
including the chairman are stepping down, is exactly what you wanted. >> let's talk about what happened and what has not happened. what happened is the ceo stepped investigationcc into compensation and benefits, and the board, the big five, the legacy directors have announced they will be retiring as of the next annual meeting. hard to argue those are not positive steps. what has not changed is there has not been any additional directors nominated by shareholders. there is not been any opportunity for shareholders to have a voice. erik: that is why you're calling for a special meeting. aniel: exactly right. why is it needed? the ceo retirement is a case in port. after an fec investigation becomes public, the ceo is
allowed to retire as opposed to being forced out or opposed to being terminated for cause. that is all of his equity, it is a $7.5 million exit package. he remains on the company's board of directors. his liability to the company has been capped by the board even if it is found he owns more money than the shares have set aside. is that an explanation for why the share price is not more reflective of the progress that has been made? j. daniel: that is what we think. we think if you go back to the annual meeting, the stock price materially appreciated an expectation there would be real changes to the business, the expense control, the governance, and the market now is waiting to see whether the company has turned the page or not. erik: other investors need to
see share price improvement. , ostensibly canadian companies targeted by activists but who complained about lowball bids the would-be buyers were making. they defeated the would be lowball bids. stock prices have not moved. do worry about that that cases of activism where there is not a good result for the investor undermines the work that you do? j. daniel: in the end, that is the ultimate measuring stick. that is what shareholders want to see. that is what investors expect to see. i do think argo is a perfect example that illustrates why corporate governance is not just academic, why it is not just theoretical, why when you look at a board that is not aligned with shareholders, that is not independent, where compensation is out of control, where there
is not a clearly delineated line of management and corporate assets, that can metastasize down into the business and we have written about this and published all of our research. argo is a case in point. have in the argo case you one of the proxy firms endorsing your call for a special shareholders meeting. the sec has proposed new rules neuteritics say would proxy advisory firms. is it an important issue for you? j. daniel: it is and one of the things in the regulatory mill that concerns me greatly. lewis, we have been in front of these organizations many times. sometimes they've supported us, sometimes they turned us away, including argo in the first go around. despite that, i have never once thought they were subject to
political bias, that they had any other responsible, never. that is clearly one of the criticisms. the other criticism, not of the firms themselves, but shareholders, j.p. morgan chase, jamie dimon making this case, shareholders are lazy. they robotically follow what glass lewis or iss tells them to do and as a result are doing a , being visited upon these otherwise upstanding companies. response? these are ultimately private contracts. companies that are paying iss are glass lewis their service and their unbiased recommendations that allows them to then vote, and yes they probably follow the conclusions most of the time, but not all of the time. let's remember there are large
institutions, blackrock, vanguard, state street, others. they have their teams of people that do not follow the recommendations and these are influential investors. erik: activism has been on an upward trajectory since the financial crisis, but amid the ups there have been some downs. the value comes to mind. how would you describe the state of activism today? what is going right and what is going wrong? the way i look at it. to me activism is a tool to create shareholder value in companies. the question is what is the market like for solid investment opportunities? this many years into a bull market, i think a lot of people would say the market is somewhat picked over and they're having difficulty finding new opportunities. that has not been our experience. you have to look at the market
through that lens. the strategies and activism i think work and will continue to work are ones that are , and intally rooted sometimes use the term drive-by activism. i do not think that typically works and it will not work in an environment like this. if that is all you're playing for and you did not get it, what is the investment thesis if you do not have a deeply rooted fundamental case. strategies that work. you have the capital, you have the time horizon, the backing to be able to stay in investment, it is argo. here we are, into our second cycle. we have talked about multiyear investments. that is the type of strategy i think works. erik: great to have you on bloomberg. j. daniel: always my pleasure. erik: happy holidays. j. daniel: sam dew you. founder and plant, ceo of voce capital.
vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. you can see the charts on the bloomberg by running gtv . kicking things off in new york is eric balchunas. a chart ofd me is the solar conductor etf and the semiconductor etf, in a dead heat to see who will be the best performing etf of the year. they are both high performing etf, and very different ways they got there. smh is up 400% over the last decade. it is consistently a good performer. awful. bill be interesting to see which one finishes the year first but also who has the next five years. smh, buti asked picks we will see. vonnie: we will have to revisit
in five years. next up is justina lee in london. justina: we know risk appetite has making a comeback, and you can see that from the turquoise line, which is the yield curve. what does that mean for your smart beta strategy? what i have for the white line is the ratio between the msci value and the growth index. we can see when the yield curve steepen's that is good news for value. it makes sense. tends to bewth companies that depend more on future cash flows so they don't -- they do not do well. if you look at the square, what that would seem to indicate is with steepening yield curves, value should start to do better versus growth. we will have to see. vonnie: i guess we have to wait for a while to see the outcome of either of these charts. his,put a timeframe on five years. we will wait five years to see if eric's chart wins. ee ininner is justina l
london. remember to watch etf iq with eric balchunas. you may see that chart again. coming up, "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. the alaska governor joins to discuss his meeting with president trump and also climate change and alaska's business. -- michael dunn leavy in the next hour -- the dow has turned negative. this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, kevin cirilli from the white house on the house moving forward to impeach the president. brooke sutherland on fedex and how low it can go, and from london, the pound's to news on brexit and the bank of england. let's start with kevin cirilli. where are we at this point? kavanaugh: right now the house is -- kevin: right now the house is going through the conversation they are having on the floor of the house of representatives ahead of the historic impeachment vote. a handful of democrats expected to break from the party and vote with republicans against impeachment. from there, a quick trial in the senate. mitch mcconnell saying he is anticipating a quick trial. here at the white house, it is business as usual. we aren't dissipating the vote to happen between 5:00 new york time and 8:00 new york time.
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