Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  December 23, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST

11:00 am
the outlook for 2020? what are the events that should be on your radar screen? we are going to talk about everything from washington to apple buying disney. live from london, i'm guy johnson. we are counting you down to the european close here on "bloomberg markets." ♪ guy: it's checked the markets on both sides of the atlantic. a reasonably quiet sessions from the volume point of view. the s&p trading a little higher on boeing on the news that ceo dennis muilenburg is out. the u.s. treasury market, despite disappointing durable goods data -- we are watching
11:01 am
what is happening with the group market, down attached today. big moving natural gas in the -- big move in natural gas in the u.s. kuwaitis and thes may be doing a deal that would bring more to the market. dennis muilenburg has been ousted as ceo of boeing. chairman dave calhoun will take his place. let's bring in bloomberg aerospace reporter justin backman. what did milind berg do wrong -- what did dennis muilenburg do wrong? justin: i think the issue was after these two fatal crashes from a public relations standpoint, the way that the families perceived him, the people in congress, and around the world come of the perception was that boeing was ready to just move along, fix this and
11:02 am
move along, and it really took a different touch for the situation. guy:guy: in terms of what this means for getting the 737 max back, does it change anything? justin: i don't think it is going to affect the timeline for the faa and for european and chinese regulators to do their work, but i think boeing is hoping that this is sort of a fresh start for them with the new ceo and building some new relationships, and kind of starting over, as it were. guy: there's been speculation for quite some time that dennis muilenburg would ultimately be ousted. why did it take so long? wouldn't have been benefited to do this early? justin: the board had expressed a lot of confidence, and they felt that as an engineer, he was
11:03 am
helping move this process along and handling the technical aspects come the software rewrite, but what happened was in a lot of ways, it was the other work, the human relation aspect getting these really ships repaired and rebuilt with the regulators. i think that is where he fell felt it wasrobably time that they tried something else. guy: what skill set does dave calhoun bring to the table? justin: he came from general electric, and had a long term an executive there. i think what he brings is a nonengineering approach. he's a bit more of a diplomat, probably. he will be going to washington and be sort of mending these relationships that got a bit frayed under milind berg. guy: during his -- under muhlenberg. guy: despite what is happening with the max, what did you do at boeing?
11:04 am
this is a relatively recent phenomenon. boeing was forced in a difficult position. how did he change boeing while he was at the helm? justin: he focused relentlessly on cost, and boeing did not embark on a radical new designs. they did not do anything that really spent the cash. in a lot of ways, as a financial manager, you saw boeing was producing at a very high level, and the shareholders were happy. i think that is sort of going to be the big legacy, that they focused heavily on cost, made good money, had a top-selling duct which became the max as they updated it. i think that is what we are going to see as history gets written on this chapter. boeing had a very stable and profitable duration under his tenure. guy: going forward, what is the relationship at the faa look like?
11:05 am
clearly, one of the reasons we are in the situation is that maybe the pendulum swung too far, and that boeing had to much the-- had too much say in certification program. what does it look like going forward? justin: i think you are right, it is swinging back, and the faa has been very aggressively making statements in the last few weeks that this administrator steve dixon is saying they will not be rushed. there's no timeline on when the max returns. safety is dictating everything now, as it should be, and they are feeling no pressure at all from boeing in this process. think what we will see is that they are going to be much more muscular about this aircraft and anything boeing designs in the future. there's a wide-body aircraft underdevelopment right now, and i think you will see that the faa and other regulators will take a very firm stance and look at those planes very carefully.
11:06 am
happens to some of the other programs boeing is actively pursuing right now? what about the midsized aircraft? this new management take the same approach, given the nature of these airframes? presumably there is not much management can do to change the outlook here. nma ise -- justin: the under scrutiny right now because all of the focus has been on getting the max back into service. it is important -- its importance cannot be understated. x moves along,7 and the nma is probably on the back burner until, at some point next year, they feel like they
11:07 am
have got their arms around getting max deliveries back. that, even when this airplane comes back, there's a huge amount of work that needs to be done to get 400 some airplanes that have been built in storage to the customer. guy: we are going to leave it there. big day for the aerospace sector. joining us from dallas. we have been talking tesla in the last hour. they say they have exceeded $420 for the first day in intraday trading. we are currently just a little soft behind that number. share price has been rocketing of late. that share price chart doesn't really do it justice. longer timeframe and you will see the huge gains tesla has been making. back at the beginning of 2019, we had the stock near $170. we are already -- we are all the
11:08 am
way up at $420. this was the line in the sand that elon musk was talking about in terms of the take private. $420 for tesla. let's get back to the markets and talk about some insight into what we need to know about what comes next in 2020. what does that bring? joining us in london is bilal hafeez, ceo and editor of macro hive. 2019. talk me through your impressions. it really depends whether you include the back end of 2018 and the big december we had, or whether you start from january 1, whether you think it was an amazing year or an average year. bilal: that is a really good point. if you take december into account, it wasn't such a good year. if you ignore december of last year, this was an amazing year. u.s. stocks are up over 25%, bonds rallied overall. if you had a very simple portfolio, you would have had incredibly high returns over the
11:09 am
course of this year. unemployment also fell, inflation was stable, so on the surface it seems like it was a really good year, but below the surface, we know that even over the summer this year when the yield curve inverted, they were many fears of recession. there were trade war fears and so on. so the january to december numbers kind of ignore some of the issues we see underneath the surface. guy: in august, the world was going pretty badly wrong, and we were heading into a recession. the curve was inverted. everyone was panicking. we have almost on completely the other way. if the market too optimistic going into 2020? bilal: there probably is momentum to remain optimistic in the early months of next year, but i think a lot of the optimism is priced in now. you have to remember from august, extreme pessimism, the fed pivot easing. we've also had stabilization in the overall data, so that is all really good tailwinds for markets.
11:10 am
that change in news won't be so positive as we go over to 2020. guy: let's talk about the risks, the big picture macro risks for 2020. isal: one of the big risks does the market have further room to grow or not. one of the supports over the last year has been the consumer and the labor market. we could start to see cracks on that side. incould see some weakness labor markets, which would then impact the consumer. if we look at manufacturing pmi's around the world, they have been incredibly weak. if they remain in the doldrums, we could see spillover. , if youking backwards take the trade deal, brexit, a whole lot of other factors into consideration, do you think that will give the confidence to
11:11 am
industrial companies come of the ceos, the guys at the helm to turn around and start to invest money? is a factor next year? bilal: i think the big impact of the trade war is more in terms of how inventory will be built up and so on. there's a larger structural issue around investment, where investments in general have been incredibly weak over the past few years. i think part of that is to do with the structure of economies now, where companies are growing without much capital to build a platform. you just need to have good marketing to increase your network, and as a result, you end up with big tangible assets. guy: are we midcycle or light cycle? bilal: -- or late cycle? bilal: i think certainly we are late cycle. if you look at the levels of
11:12 am
unemployment, capacity utilization, and some balance sheet measures, whether it is government or corporate balance sheets, they all look on the stretched side. guy: where would i look for risks appearing? when i asked this question, i get the answer credit. is that the right place to look? bilal: it is certainly the best barometer for these type of things. certainly the lowest tier credit will be one of the earliest places you could see some distress in markets. but more generally, another thing i would focus on his market liquidity. when you see flash crashes, dislocations and markets, the repo story for example, unlike 2008, which was really a credit crisis, i think this time we are going to see some kind of liquidity crisis where people think they have liquidity, and that leads to a much larger chain reaction in markets.
11:13 am
we can all see oceans of liquidity. the question is whether or not that is trapped or not. wasexample, the repo issue all held and trapped within certain institutions who aren't willing to share that liquidity. stick around. let's get an update on what exactly is happening with these global markets. kailey leinz, over to you. kailey: we are continuing to put on the gains as we head into the holidays. the s&p 500 higher by about 0.2%, with the dow up about zero point 4%, in part due to boeing. of theer stories come spike in silver, with prices that more than 1% today. the other is the ftse 100 in the u.k., up about 0.5% right now. this is actually the ninth consecutive gain for the ftse 100, at longest winning streak since may. we continue to ride the high from the election back in
11:14 am
december just a few weeks ago. timmer get back to boeing, it is the leader in the dow today and the heaviest weighted stock in that index. right now you're looking at that stuck up about 2.8% on the ceo switch up. investors seem to be liking that. it has the stock on pace for its best day since back in november. this has been a very volatile ride over the course of the past year. the stock has really been in a range since the 737 max crashed back in march. i want to start with apple because it got a price target lift at wedbush up by 1.4%. andy already did us performer -- amd already the best performer in the s&p on china rolling back tech tariffs, helping that company. finally, apache is the best performer in s&p 500 today, up the better part of 12% after
11:15 am
totale agreed to a deal with the cup and he. guy: thank you very -- with the company. guy: thank you very much indeed. you can track all of that using gtv . that allows you to access all of the amazing charts the team here produces. catch up on the key and i'll assist that goes around here as well. save those charts for future reference as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:16 am
11:17 am
♪ london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." here's viviana hurtado. viviana: china cutting import
11:18 am
tariffs on a wide range of goods that includes parts for many factoring smartphones and consumer items including pork. beijing is continuing to lower trade barriers as it tries to spur domestic demand. an outbreak of african swine fever has caused shortages in pork. u.s. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell isn't ruling out witnesses at president trump's impeachment trial, telling fox news he's not imposed -- he's not opposed to witness testimony. he says the trial should be handled in the same way as former president bill clinton's in 1999. this after going through opening arguments and written questions. one democratic lawmaker saying he is keeping an open mind when it comes to the president's impeachment trial. alabama senator doug jones says his colleagues have some gaps in their case, describing the "impeachable,"
11:19 am
but says he needs to hear corroborating testimony. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. guy:guy: thank you very much indeed. still with us, ceo and editor of macro hive bilal hafeez. he has a list of potential grey swans we should be watching out for in 2020. you've got the u.s. introducing capital controls, england winning the euro 2020 football championships, apple buying disney. i want to start off with the first one. the u.s. introduces capital controls. that is quite a headline. is it possible? how could we get there. bilal: i think it absolutely as possible. you have to think about the economic ball between the china -- the economic wall between the united states and china. the most valuable asset the united states has is intellectual-property and its
11:20 am
companies. acquiring many of those assets. is that capital controls, or just the restrictions we've got at the moment being applied a bit more rigorously? bilal: at the moment, there are existing committees that stop that, but it is capital controls. the next step could be something larger, where the u.s. could say, hang on, china is now acquiring companies that acquire u.s. assets. before you know it, you have wide-ranging capital controls on all sdi into the u.s.. guy: one of the areas where this has been discussed is the idea there could be capital restrictions in terms of investing in chinese companies. a lot of people have been concerned that u.s. pension funds are basically investing in anda and helping china gaining access to capital this
11:21 am
way. do you think that story has any further to go? ways, china is getting u.s. capitol to fund its own corporative element. if the u.s. does have disposition that china has subsidies for its corporate sector which harm competition and so on, then the u.s. could say u.s. investors no longer fund china in any way. again, this will be another form of capital control that would really hurt chinese develop and. guy: number three, euro area inflation surge. you've got to be kidding, right? how do we get there? [laughter] bilal: core inflation has nudged up over the course of this year, said there are the beginnings of inflation. really, the big way this could happen in euro area's fiscal stimulus in the euro zone. we have started to see a shift to the left in germany.
11:22 am
you will get some kind of left-leaning coalition, and you could see fiscal stimulus from germany, which would then prompt countries to stimulate their economies through some fiscal policy. also, we have all sorts of union strikes and activism that would push up wages. before you know it, if you put all of these pieces together, you could start to see inflation pick up. guy: we were talking about tesla a moment ago. you have seen the biggest threat to the auto sector not being electrification, but virtual reality. thel: you have to question motives for traveling. if we get major advances in virtual reality or journal communications, then why do we need to travel? that could harm the auto sector. apple is going to release its virtual reality headset, which, when apple launches something, it invariably has quite wide-ranging effects. guy: and to be a could go with
11:23 am
disney assets. bilal: yes, the other great when we came up with is disney being acquired by apple. the reason for that is if you look at apple's operating income over the past for five years, it has stagnated. everyone has got their iphone. apple is trying to get into new v, so why not least t not acquire disney? apple has enough cash, over $200 disney, to fully buy so that is summing that could happen. guy: the streaming wars certainly look like they will get fully into gear next year. hive ceo andacro editor, will stay with us. this is bloomberg -- bilal hafeez, macro hive ceo and editor, will stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:24 am
11:25 am
guy: from london, i'm guy thompson. this is the rp and close on -- the european close on "bloomberg markets."
11:26 am
on both sides of the atlantic, volume is reasonably light. 0.2%.p up by we are watching tesla go through $420. the nasdaq up by 0.3%. in europe, a similar volume story. most markets will be closed later in the week. the ftse is up by about 0.5%. the pound continues to slide. the dax trading reasonably flat. the cac 40 up by 0.2%. the close is coming up next. we are around three minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:27 am
11:28 am
11:29 am
guy: 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe. a light volume session. in europe in0% terms of the volume on average
11:30 am
across europe. in the u.s., call it 25%. the ftse 100 is outperforming. the dax trading softer today. the reason why the ftse is outperforming on the pound is on its longest losing streak since may. more shakyooks limited on the day after the u.k. election 10 days ago. u.k. equity assets have held up better. today we are up .5%. the dax trading softer, the cac 40 up .2%. in terms of the way we break range.down, very tight that goes with this idea there is not a lot happening and a lot of desks are not that well staffed. in terms of the sector rotation, there is little bit of action. oil and gas outperforming. that is one of the reasons the
11:31 am
london market is doing better than most. at the bottom end of the market, it is those banks, down .8%. not the greatest for european banks. they have done 8% over last year. the market from the stoxx 600 point of view over 20%. stocks underperforming today as they have throughout the year. in the united states, light volume. not quite as bad in europe. the dow has been boosted by boeing. the ousting of dennis muilenburg seems to have given that stock lift. the s&p up .2%. through 420g tesla today. a big line in the sand. the global themes we continue to watch out of this year into next -- that is on a one month basis, today trading higher. over the one-month period down 10%. the bounce not that big over the
11:32 am
problems david calhoun faces. i mentioned the pound. macro five editor of still with us. what happened to the boers bounce? unce?e boris bo >> i think the market realized a hard brexit is still on the table. there is naturally profit-taking after that. the key thing is that after optimism on election day, there could be a possibility of a soft unless negotiations between the u.s. and europe change when the u.k. government talked about putting a firm deadline in. divergent looks like the most likely outcome. how do investors price that in over the next years? as the eu and the u.k. gradually
11:33 am
drift apart? >> this is one of the challenges for markets trying to price this. there is this notion that the u.k. will somehow become like a singapore low tax low regulation environment. i think will be difficult for that to happen outside of spain and switzerland, which you could say already have that. switzerland is the singapore of europe. there is no need for another one. the question is whether the u.k. starts to develop an edge in trading northern european markets. whether it is trading asian capitalwhether specter will have to carve out a niche in those spaces which it does not necessarily have. guy: where is the risk to the u.k. economy? bilal: the most obvious is
11:34 am
brexit, if we were to get a hard brexit. we talked about three non-brexit shocks in the u.k.. what is the possibility of recession in the next year two. the u.k. expansion has been incredibly long. we already have a exit quarter of growth. there already signs we could see a recession. how would the new governor react to that? bilal: the conventional thing would be that those type of measures will not be as helpful this time around, partly because rates are already low, partly because the markets have that type of dynamics. they will have to be much more on the physical side of the economy. purchases that directly impacts demand over the real economy rather than helping
11:35 am
banks out. has been doing is making sure the banking sector has been regulated. aware than most as to the potential challenges that could come to the u.k. economy in that direction. nevertheless, how big of a risk you think the financial sector poses to the u.k. economy? u.k. economy was hit hard in of our 2008 as a result focus on the financial services sector. bilal: it is quite a large and significant risk. had liquidityy issues of various types of bonds which did happen. there those kinds of concerns that one does have. broadere also is the market and liquidity issues we are having around the world with repo in the u.s., whether the
11:36 am
bank of england is on top of the potential putting risks we have in markets. guy: you think the fed is on top of it? bilal: the fed is on top of the shorter dynamics to put it politely. the fact that it -- the fact that it happened josie the fed is not good with what -- tells you the fed is not good with what is going on with the new regime good banks around the world had measures in place but it did emerge. guy: how do you think if it were to happen again, and there are those that think it will happen again, particularly into year end, but there are still risks that exist, do you think that that will change the way it manages relationships? do you think it will change its approach to managing the situation? bilal: if it continues it will have to change its approach.
11:37 am
already by offering short-term cash and buying short-term goal, that is in effect q. week. -- that is in effect qe. buying longer dated bonds would be restarting qe. guy: what are the implications for asset markets if that were to happen? bilal: it would subdue bond yields. downward pressure on yields. that would be a big factor in credit and equity markets. that would extend the rally. there is a twist all of this which relates to something else we talked about recently, which is the pension issue you have in multiple countries. the more you push down yields, the more you have pressure on the pension side, and as the populations are aging, then you have a backlash from a significant chunk of the population saying our pensions are no longer funded, how we do not have enough in our pensions
11:38 am
to fund that. guy: if the pension system is a systemic risk, how should we think about that risk? bilal: that would depend on the age of the population. the countries with the most aging population would then tell you it is a five-year problem for the country. that way you have younger population and could extend that further. it is a more chronic issue. japan has very low yields. yet we have not seen it show up yet. where do i look for the first example of where it comes through? bilal: in the case of japan one of the advantages is japan has been a massive sabr from the get-go. currency -- the country is constantly saving. if you look at japan's current account surplus, most of it is made up for interested earned from foreign bonds. domestically it has low yields,
11:39 am
but you can capture high-yield by buying everything else. , people has a deficit in the u.k. do not save. it is much more of a chronic problem. countries have a deficit and an aging population. ,ithin europe, italy, france and the u.k., those are the ones that stand out. germany has massive savings. toal: to circle back -- guy: circle back to the repo issue, if there was a repo problem, hedge funds that rely on short-term problems that come out of the repo market, there is another repo problem, do you think there is a trickle-down effect that could generate for sellers? bilal: there could be that possibility. the issue is it is evident that if there is a repo spike, if the fed did not step in and lost for more than a few days, then you
11:40 am
can stop the short health sellers. -- stop the short-sellers. guy: have a great holiday. thank you for coming into cs. us.coming into see let's check it european stocks have settled. very light volume. these are the closing prices. london up a little bit more than most. weakness in the pound, plus some of the oil stocks doing better. some from a sector point of view may be rotated into. the ftse 100 up .6%. symmetrically, the cac 40 up .1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:41 am
11:42 am
11:43 am
guy: from london, i am guy johnson. this is the on bloomberg market. let's check in on first word news. here is mark crumpton. mark: dennis muilenburg is out is boeing ceo. the plane maker remains in turmoil after last year's two deadly crashes involving a top-selling jetline. the 737 max has been grounded since march. boeing has temporarily halted its output. david calhoun role-plays mullen bert as ceo and president. formermer gea of -- the general electric executive has been serving as cfo since october. saudi arabia has found six people guilty in the murder of jamal khashoggi. five people be executed for the crime and another three will be imprisoned for 24 years. turkeys foreign ministry says the convictions are
11:44 am
unsatisfactory because they do not reveal who ordered the killing. hong kong got back to business over weekend scuffles of police and protesters. --dreds of gathered just so to show support from the chinese majority. at one point, an officer drew his gun and pointed it at demonstrators. no shots were fired in the incident. vladimir putin inaugurated a massive railway bridge to crimea. he rode a commuter train for the opening of the 11.9 mile bridge. it is the longest one in europe. the multibillion-dollar project is intended to bolster links between russia and crimea. it is aimed at increasing the transport of cargo and increasing the flow of tourists. russia annexed the peninsula from ukraine in 2014. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
11:45 am
i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. guy? guy: thank you very much indeed. bank of america ceo brian moynihan sat down exclusively with bloomberg to discuss a wide range of topics. david westin banking about the banks leveraged load -- david westin asking about the banks leveraged load portfolio. brian: the exposure on your books is relatively small, especially given the size. back, i balanced the company's commercial lending on the consumer side which is a bigger part than the total lending. the traditional underwriting is how you manage risk, when you go back to the question about what could go wrong. we view everything could go wrong or anything could go on. we have diversification and think about it with client selection. it is not necessarily on our books, but the question is over leverage companies tend to have
11:46 am
problems when the world slows down. that is economics 101 or credit underwriting 11. we have to underwrite with the right amount of debt turns. you heroes get concerned when the market moves away from the and bind itlevels -- and major financial institutions. we get concerned about that because it reverberates back at some point. the concern is is there too much leverage? it has trouble with the impact economy. that is the question you hear people talk about. go down in value and that happens all the time. the question is is enough of the market share. that is the concern you hear more about. we saw a lotvid: of negative interest rates. is it inevitable people borrow too much? it almost compels them to. it is almost free, or better than free, they pay you to use
11:47 am
it. brian: whether it is the federal government, the state government, people or companies, you always worry about going back and looking at enterprises, excess leverage is the thing that usually tips them over. what has been interesting is when people are talking about the biggest asset class for consumers has been very well structured for a long time. ith the economy grown around from $14 trillion to $21 , you've seen the home mortgage loans total get above where they were. it is a percentage of everything you think about over 15 years ago. you can see how inflated they were. we feel the mortgage structures were good. we feel the credit card lending structures are good. we feel the auto business is good. you do not see, even though the volumes are high and low rates allow servicing to be lower, which is the reason why the fed
11:48 am
does low rates because it stimulates the economy, the reality is it is always a question of how many debt turns a company can have and why we can try to keep our underwriting standards and keep the market to that. it is 7040 or something for credit cards, these are prime borrowers that are very comfortable with credit. it is not mean there other people who might be doing something different. brian moynihan, bank of america ceo talking to david westin. boeing is worth focusing on. these are reports coming through from a person asking for anonymity but the news seems to calhoun, the new ceo of boeing has spoken to the head of the faa. they have had a brief conversation and it seems at dixontage it looks like
11:49 am
spoke to calhoun. this is the start of what will hopefully be in improving relationship between the faa and boeing. muilenburgg dennis quite a ticking off a little while ago and maybe that was part and parcel of his ousting. certainly it looks like there has been a conversation being reported that happened earlier on, probably in the day. we got the news just after the market opened that dennis muilenburg was going to be at boeing. let's talk about another company. disney is our stock of the hour. shares falling after the newest star wars film pulled in not exactly what everyone was hoping for. let's get the latest with taylor riggs. taylor: back in the days when 170 $5 million on opening days doesn't cut it. looking force was estimates of $183 million.
11:50 am
that certainly fell short. it is 30% below "the force awakens," which was the first film in the trilogy, so disney shares moving on the news today. i wanted to take a look at disney by revenue. as you can see, a lot of this, some of the revenue, about 14% comes from studios. star wars was expected to be a boost. it does not seem like they are ending the year on a good note. to be sure, they are still crushing it relative to their competitors. disney had one of its best years ever at the box office relative to the rest of the industry that has struggled. domestic revenue for movies is down 5% for 2018, and as you can see, universal and everyone else struggling. you mentioned competition. comcast teaming up with lions gate to extend its contract. does this help alleviate some of
11:51 am
the concerns around lionsgate? we were showing a board about some of the competitors. lionsgate was facing structural problems amid the shifting model and the potential carriage dispute with potential operators. 7% asow lionsgate is up their unit enters the long-term agreement with comcast, nbc universal, to continue the carrier on that network on xfinity tv. some good news for some of the other media operators. guy: disney is our stock of the hour. thank, indeed. coming up, it is our global battle of the charts. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
11:52 am
hello! hi! how can i help? a data plan for everyone. everyone? everyone. let's send to everyone! wifi up there? uhh. sure, why not? how'd he get out?! a camera might figure it out.
11:53 am
that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today. guy: time for our global battle of the charts. you can find these on your bloomberg. you have to do is run the function gtv . kicking things off. >> the thing we are looking at
11:54 am
today is soybeans. not necessarily soybeans. it is the dollar. the key thing that matters would soybeans. the chart in white is the monthly chart for soybeans. the 12 month moving averages trending down. this year we have a 10 year low, around eight dollars. the biggest problem for soybeans is not china, it is the other line, the aqua green. that is the trade-weighted broad dollar. highest level ever. for soybeans to go up, the u.s. now exports over 50%. the dollar has to go down. to me that is a key thing to watch and also the key thing to look for next year is around $10 a bushel. $10 is the most widely traded in soybeans for the past decade. i think we can inch up near 10. the key level for upsides if we get good news to drive soybeans is around 12. that was the high from 2016. that is the dream of most farmers, but for next year we should expect an average price
11:55 am
around 10 but not much below nine. guy: thank you very much indeed. what if you got forest? >> i am looking at pgk? it is a big vanguard. there are a lot of bullish developments i like. if you look at what is happened in the beginning of 2018, 5650 is the level i am watching. it failed. then you have two years of the gk coming around but what i like is it is breaking at the 5650 level. you have a coil on the end. what starts to get my attention is the flows. you can see that earlier in 20 you have a lot of inflow. basically two years. now you have money starting to come back. i think with a lot of the brexit behind us, yet this bullish development and it is catching the attention of investors. i am watching for breakout and continued interest.
11:56 am
you i will give it to because this is an anomaly developing between what is happening in the pound and what is happening in u.k. equities. two fantastic charts. gentlemen, both of you, thank you very much, indeed. a tough one. coming up in the united states, balance of power. carol massar and kevin cirilli will be joining you on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. they will continue our conversation from a washington point of view on the leadership changes taking place at boeing. markets have light volume today. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:57 am
11:58 am
11:59 am
kevin: from bloomberg's washington bureau to our tv and
12:00 pm
radio audiences worldwide, i am kevin cirilli. carol: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, i am carol massar. welcome to "balance of power" where the world of politics meets the world of business. we start with boeing. joining us from princeton's george ferguson, our senior aerospace analyst. he is follow the industry and this company closely. -- this latest development, and a year where we are seeing ceos quickly being fired, i'm not totally surprised by this. what is your take away? george: a lot of people were not surprised. the timing was accelerated by the problems the other day, the boeing space capsule that was shot into orbit was supposed to link up with the international space station. the big take away here is it seemed like boeing and the faa were not on the sam


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on