Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  December 31, 2019 2:30am-4:00am EST

2:30 am
welcome back to bloomberg markets, this is the european open. 30 minutes from the start of cash equity trading in some parts of europe and the u.k. it is new year's eve so a few markets will be closed. early.e closing stocks will not trade in frankfurt today and they will close early in london and paris for the holiday. let us get the bloomberg first word news ever that we go to lunch -- laura writes in london. has escaped to lebanon. he denies wrongdoing but says he
2:31 am
is not seeing justice. lebanon, theen of country that has an extradition agreement with japan. according to incoming chief naval. -- close to 2%. it is supposed to be symmetrical or not. spain, the prime minister is signaling growing confidence he will be able to form a government but he still needs the backing of the catalan separatist party. besuccessful, sanchez will creating the first coalition government since the 1930's. in australia, thousands of stranded tourists are on the beaches. is turningk smoke
2:32 am
the morning sky pitch black. two more people have died taking the death toll to 12. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt? wright in london with your first word news. s gauge of china' manufacturing sector held steady. the manufacturing pmi index remained at a reading of 50.2 all the outlook for new orders -- on the trade front, the white leading china hock peter navarro says the phase one deal is in the bag that he declined to confirm a report that chinese emissaries will travel to washington this weekend to sign the agreement. carsten brzeski is still with us
2:33 am
from our frankfurt bureau. what is your take on the trade deal so far? what do you expect in 2020? is that the funny thing even though we don't know the details, it has brought some relief to market and the economies. week will be signed this or in general, it will bring further relief to world trade and that is what we see in these chinese pmi numbers. it could help that we see a bottoming out of the manufacturing sector of global trade so we will then start to see a gradual recovery of the global economy. in the course of 2020. on the other hand, the phase one deal suggests there will be more this generale and conflict between the u.s. and china will continue.
2:34 am
the other risk for 2020 is whether the white house will put its eye on the eu and whether we will get tariffs on european automotive's. -- this is a clear possibility so therefore, even with the phase one deal, the overall trade conflict idea will not disappear. matt: and the fact that a lot of european cars are built in the u.s. and would then not be subject to tariffs. taking a bigger hits from the chinese tariffs because bmw exports a lot of their big suvs from the u.s. to china. i wonder what you think president trump will do next year. on the one hand, he could try to bring a swift end to the trade thelict in order to boost economy before the election in 2020. as you know, americans like to the for an incumbent if
2:35 am
economy is doing well. on the other hand, americans like politicians to take a hard line when it comes to the relationship with china or it seems so from both sides of the aisle. and he could go that route in order to win more votes. what do you expect? carsten: i expect him to stay where he is right now. to continue with tough language towards china. this is in the bag. the election campaign as he is the president to have achieved a trade deal with china. parliament isan spending more on nato. i don't think it makes sense to start a new conflict in the election year. can see what iou have achieved from a for me again and i will make more deals after the election. matt: in terms of the economy in
2:36 am
europe come it has taken a big hit not just because of the of thers but as a result global trade simply slowing down due to the trade war. the you expect the european economy to pick up as well as manufacturing slowly recovering in 2020? carsten: we have a strange discrepancy and the european economies. strong, solid domestic demand and labor market but a manufacturing slump. it depends on this phase one dl. a bit of relief coming for the global market in time to bring a rebound in the manufacturing sector and then you avoid the crumbling of the labor market. and we see a rebound of the eurozone economy. if the rebound of manufacturing takes too long, i think we will see a bit of a crumbling of domestic consumption and the labor market and we would only
2:37 am
see a rebound of the eurozone economy in the second half of 2020. in either case, the problem is that any rebound will either be a soft rebound, when we talk about alphabet soup, not elmo but alphabet soup, the shape of the economy looks like a l or a j shape recovery. , we will keep you with us here on this new year's eve. carsten brzeski out of frankfurt. up next, we will look into the german economic outlook for 2020 and zero in on what that manufacturing crisis, especially the auto sector, has done. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:38 am
2:39 am
matt: welcome back to the
2:40 am
european open. this is bloomberg markets. and matt miller in berlin we are just about 20 minutes away from the open which will happen in most markets. not in frankfurt. it is closed today. there is trading in london and paris for a short time. on this new year's eve holiday. let us get the bloomberg business flash and for that we go back to laura wright in london. >> jp morgan once full control of its futures in china. 49% to 100%. the first global lender taking advantage of the nation's opening market. tesla took a hit yesterday after an analyst said they may miss the target.
2:41 am
it has delivered below the company's goal. the chinese electric carmaker -- it is still warning it is running low on cash. it says it does not have enough money to continue operating for another 12 months. china's car market has been slowing and has had to cut thousands of jobs. that is your bloomberg business flash. thank you, laura wright in london with your flash. could germany be entering a lost decade? a 2020 rebound could be in the cards. carsten brzeski, chief economist at ing germany is still with us. how come we do not see a bounce back in this economy? as china's economy seems to be stabilizing, it is not a bad
2:42 am
picture for the u.s. in 2020. and there are so many reasons to buy a new car, why isn't germany going to be saved in 2020? carsten: i think the german problem is one that we first had a cyclical slowdown 10 years after fantastic growth. we are also facing structural problems with the economy. the cycle needs the structure and the structure suggests there have been -- has been too little investment in the last 10 years. this is the transition towards electric vehicles and towards more people doing car sharing. sector,t the automotive germany's nokia but it is a
2:43 am
sector lacking growth. it is now going through a longer period of change and disruption meaning the german economy which to some extent -- 7% of the total german economy drives on automotive's directly and indirectly. this shows the manufacturing slump is hurting the german economy. and now is still the time for germany to start investing and do new structure reforms. if not, the next decade -- the next 10 years could be a lost 10 years for the german economy. zero,there is no year this is not the end of the decade yet. i have an amazing chart. i just went through my producer hillary's charts from the past. average car sales in white.
2:44 am
u.s. car sales. it is key that not hugely important. the amazing thing is the blue line which is the average age of the passenger cars on the road. to theinues to rise up end of this year. the average age is more than 12 years. you think that people want to go out and buy a new one if their car is 12 years old -- the higher quality of modern cars means you can keep them longer, i wonder, is the extremely low interest rate situation both in the u.s. and around the world where a lot of times rates are negative, you can get 2% or less to buy a car here in germany, is that helping or are those loans not getting approved? carsten: i think it should help. the lifecycle story should normally help but then there comes disruption all change.
2:45 am
what kind of car should you buy? should you go for diesel? otherwise, you have stories about the new diesel engine be in cleaner than some gasoline engines. should you go for electric? if you go for full of electric, should you go for a plug-in? people are delaying the decision. it will be pent-up demand in the coming years but it is hard to tell when people start to read -buy a new car. matt: morning for viewers, i'm going to editorialize for a minute. my recommendation would be a diesel hybrid. i think diesel engines are cleaner now and you have that 48 volt electric system which i think is an amazing component in the engines.
2:46 am
carsten, i know you have just gone fully electric so i applaud your decision. to make theing world a better place. happy new year, carsten brzeski. 9,000,000% -- that is how much this decade best-performing asset has gained since 2010. we will talk about bitcoin -- itss spectacular -- spectacular rise. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:47 am
2:48 am
welcome back to bloomberg markets, this is the european open and we are just about 11 minutes away from the start of cash trading. futures are pointing down. trading will be incredibly light today as it is new year's eve. many markets across europe including here in germany and in italy are closed today and many
2:49 am
markets including in the u k and france will close early after trading a little bit in the morning. watch out for some gyrations because of that in but unity. if in the throes of this old t's early-- bull marke stages, and purchase and unknown digital token and watch it grow beyond your wildest dreams, you would surely call that person crazy which would make sense but bitcoin has just -- has done just that. the largest digital token has posted gains of more than 9,000,000% since july 2010. nothing else even comes close to reading it. -- will see there was a long nothing else even comes close to beating it. hong lam joins us now from
2:50 am
kong. you have been covering this very closely for a long time. skeptics even more than supporters. more dramatics than the fight over tesla on twitter. what do you make of the incredible rise of bitcoin? >> it really is dark when you take a look -- it really is stark when you take a look at the chart you pulled up. you're talking about less than 10 men -- 10 years. you start from zero. if you got in at the very first transaction, 10,000 bitcoin for two pieces. izzas. way,u point out, along the bitcoin picked up a lot of skeptics.
2:51 am
a lot of skepticism out there. a lot more institutional scrutiny and regulatory scrutiny. if you buying now will you get another 9,000,000%? it seems unlikely but crazier things have happened. matt: i am sure you know that i -- onn the coin for two as i didor two weeks for a special report. it was difficult to find groceries and gas stations that would take it but it worked to some extent. it never really picked up as a way to do transactions. there are famous stories of people buying a lamborghini with bitcoin but it still does not work as a daily current c. thatere any expectation someday i will be able to walk down to him condone it and pick is there any-
2:52 am
expectation that some day i will be able to walk down to dunkin' donuts and pick up a box of cruellers? inventedn it was first , there was an argument that it pose to replace the u.s. dollar. now, a lot of people that are it coin evangelists -- many art opening it because they think it will rise in value. when you talk about cryptocurrencies that could be used for transactions like what you are describing, there are other options and there are
2:53 am
other competitors being developed. when you take a look at some of the countries where they are on the forefront of digital transactions including china, we are seeing the chinese government is working on cryptocurrencies of their own which is more likely that you uyingp seeing someone b something using those currencies. hopefully, they have quit smoking but i get your point. yourlam, thank you for comments. it is the last trading day of the year. let us see where you would've made the most money in the european equities market. joining us now is sam olmstead. from our equities team.
2:54 am
2019 has been incredible. where have you seen the biggest gains? as you mentioned, it has been a very good year in some respects. in part because last year with such a bad year. what you have seen for the most part is individual winners. withs been a year marked trade wars, brexit, major macro events. -- talk to mee about the regions, about the sectors, the names -- who have been the big winners and losers of 2019? am: the biggest winner is all he's europe -- altice europe.
2:55 am
their shares have more than tripled. and then a company like greg's -- they have also done very well over the course of the year. matt: sam, thank you very much. a huge soccer fan. it has been great watching your coverage this year as well. some of the most valuable startups in the us could be ready to go public in 2020 according to a new analysis by amkm. be talking about the startups in just six months time. stripe. airbnb. interesting about
2:56 am
this report is that they say the fourth year of a u.s. president term is typically a brush to go public so possibly in the next six months. , thanknnmarie hordern you for those stories that we will likely cover in the next year. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
-- formergreat escape automotive giant carlos ghosn please to lebanon claiming he was held hostage by japan's rigged legal system. his words, not mine. ending on a high. peter navarro says a trade deal with china is in the bag. this as the country's manufacturing sector grows more in december. and a rally to remember. a bumper decade for global stocks. oil is poised for its best year since 2016 and bitcoin is up 9,000,000% since 2010. let us get to the bloomberg open
3:00 am
30 seconds ago with annmarie hordern. >> good morning and happy new year. european futures ahead of the open -- arrows to the red. ftse 100 down. dax future down. germany is closed for the day. italy is closed as well. ae ftse market will be closed half day. a lot of markets around the world are closed given it is the new year's holiday. volumeseeing light today. given the holiday. we are not expecting a lot of volatility or movement. the euro stoxx 50 is relatively muted. foreign exchange, fourth day lower for the u.s. index. opening up down 0.2%. day. to be a risk off nothing tells that picture more than the wheel in front of me.
3:01 am
all down in the red today. the nordics markets are closed as well as italy and germany. what corporate's are moving this morning? are movingporates this morning? matt: i will show you. 100ave 200 stocks down with gaining an almost 300 not trading today. imperial brands adding the most points to the yandex right now with a gain of 1%. maybe new year's eve play. a lot of people that do not normally smoke may grab one tonight. endi is a gain or that that cannot be explained by the holiday. take a look at the losers. hsbc is down as well as
3:02 am
astrazeneca. smithkline is also falling. the british american tobacco is a loser today. that may not be why we see imperial brands gaining. european markets in general lower but very thin trading. asian stocks drifted lower as well. most were closed. japan was closed as was taiwan and south korea. a lot of european markets are closed today including here in germany as well. we had some interesting economic data out of asia. a gauge of china's manufacturing sector, holding steady in december adding evidence that the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing. the manufacturing pmi index remains at 50.2 all the outlook
3:03 am
for export orders expanded for the first time since may of 2018. joining us now is nick wall. thank you for coming on set today. let me first ask you about the year that was in what you expect in 2020. nick: good morning. it has been a great year for many stocks. most investors have seen pretty good returns. forecast is -- the fairly monday. there are not too many people who are speculating that the will improve. a lot of the flows we have seen predicatedave been
3:04 am
on this environment. the actual money movement this year -- 800 billion of flow. we are interested if that begins to unravel somewhat. while we cannot disagree with the consensus for low growth and low inflation, we are looking to contract of to see if some of this materializes. matt: where do you see yields then as well as growth and inflation at the end of 2020? nick: the u.s. 10 year, we could get to around 250. i think a lot of people have given up on the inflationary dynamic.
3:05 am
we have not seen that come through and we have not seen the link between higher wages and lower unemployment. the labor markets are still tight. you could see some of those measures start to come through particularly global returns. returndo get the global ,s well as the deglobalization we could see some of that return premium. and yields could be a little bit higher. while we think the fed is on hold, they want to depoliticize their central bank decisions.
3:06 am
somean start to see reflationary believes getting priced in there. matt: we are going to talk about the fed in a moment. map i'ma pretty killer excited to show you. with predictions for 2020. first i want to get back to the china story. you were talking about the pmi there as well. what do you think about the phase one deal? itre is a lot of speculation could be signed this weekend. if we get real movement on trade reconciliation, how important is that for the global economy? nick: it is hugely important. the u.s. is a fairly close economy. it has not been massively impacted but it has had an effect on the rest of the world. a strong dollar.
3:07 am
if you do get a phase one trade deal, i don't think that is the ultimate solution. there is still going to be a strategic dispute going on between the u.s. and china. we see it as more of a trade truce. there is a lot of pent-up demand capex thatment in has been on hold. it has almost gone far enough on tariffs. it may give businesses more confidence to ramp up production again. that is what you can insinuate by looking at the china pmi data last night. the phase one deal was the easiest part. the pressure is off of china for protecting intellectual
3:08 am
property. china oncereas that to open up to increase foreign investment into the country. i think those measures suited china and on the u.s. side as well. i think that was the easy bit. -- think ito deal is ok to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism. peter navarro is thing it is in the bag and they're looking forward to phase two. there is still a broader conflict going on. someuld expect manufacturing pmi to pick up in
3:09 am
q1. wall, portfolio manager for fixed income with merion global investors., going, ghos the fallen titan escapes from japan. we will have the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:10 am
3:11 am
3:12 am
matt: welcome back to the bloomberg markets, this is the european open. right now, 12 minutes into the it is new year's eve and a lot of markets are closed. those that are open are down right now and they will be closing early to mark the holiday. on to the most important story of the day. the arrest that shocked the over aal world a little year ago. automotive tighten carlos ghosn was put on trial in japan for alleged financial misconduct and misuse of corporate resources. allegations he has denied from the start. there is a new twist. the former head of nissan and renault says he has pled japan to lebanon to escape "injustice and political persecution. oh asianoomberg chief north correspondent has more.
3:13 am
stephen: carlos ghosn has confirmed he has fled japan where he was awaiting trial for alleged financial crimes and he is now in lebanon. he says he has not fled justice but escaped in justice. been toldnews has that carlos ghosn fled japan because he didn't up leave you would get a fair trial there. ,n a statement from beirut carlos ghosn says he was held hostage by a "rigged japanese justice system are co- what we do not know is how he got out of japan. there is no immigration record of him leaving japan. and authorities are checking into whether he used an alias. there has been no change to his bail conditions which required him to surrender his passport. he is said to own several passports including lebanese which does not have the next andition treaty --
3:14 am
extradition treaty with japan. the mystery deepens. stephen engle, bloomberg news, hong kong. will continue to bring you details of this developing story throughout the day. over in the u.s. come of the new werefed'd repo operations under subscribed. the latest in a series of haveal bank offerings that gone underused signaling dealers have ample funding for the end of the year crisis averted. is still with us. let us talk about the fed from a different standpoint. you don't expect and frankly neither does anyone in our sayey expect -- i should neither do the majority of the people that we surveyed expect any interest rate moves in 2020. which way though would you say the fed would lean if pushed?
3:15 am
lean towards would the dovish side i think. the fed has taken a lot of easing this year and has done a pretty good job of making sure the pressures were well contained. what will be interesting this year is whether the fed has done enough to weaken the dollar. will be the dollar incredibly important if we are going to see a global recovery particularly manufacturing given the role the dollar plays in the emerging markets are borrowing the dollar. if the fed has done enough to weaken the dollar, we think it can unleash a pretty good reflationary impact. if it hasn't, the rest of the world which has borrowed heavily
3:16 am
in dollars, i think the fed will be forced back to the table., i think we are thegs are looking better on back of this phase one trade deal. if that was to turn and if the dollar starts to strengthen because the fed rates are much higher than central bank rates in the rest of the world, i think the fed will come back to the table and be willing to ease. i don't think they want to. that is the way things will turn. matt: i want to bring up this map that i mentioned, received in my chart note this morning. you can see here that the yellow areas are where no change is expected for 2020. north america. the u.s. is on their it least and canada. i wonder what you expect for the ecb? a lot of people are talking
3:17 am
about a resurgence for the euro in 2020. i cannot imagine that happening if there is a cut here and not there. i wonder what you think of it if there is no cut on either side of the atlantic. we are positive on the euro at the moment for that reason. in that i think you are seeing and increasing number of developed markets in central banks in europe shy away from the interest rate policy they have been adopting for a few years now. christine lagarde come the ecb talkingt, has been about the unintended consequences of the negative rates. talking about taking the rates back to zero because of the harm it was doing to the banking sector and some people argued that it increased rates because people were less interested. and it was having and impact that was counter.
3:18 am
bar for further cuts is quite high for the ecb. i think it is more likely to be because the euro strengthens considerably. and there would be a manufacturing rebound. going into the first half of the year, we are long euro on the back of that because we think the central bank optimism from central banks in europe taking rates deeper. i would agree with your chart. we are going to keep you with us. we are going to talk more with him about britain. coming up, that subject exactly. from deadlock to a new prime minister and a new divorce field, brexit has dominated the u.k. agenda again in 2019. we even talked about it a lot here on the continent.
3:19 am
the keytalk about moments and what 2020 has in store. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:20 am
3:21 am
>> i have always said no deal is better than a bad deal. i think we actually have a good year from the european union. i do not want to see article 50 extended. deal is clearly dead.
3:22 am
not leave on time with a deal on the 29th of march. this delay is a matter of great personal regret for me. i will shortly leave the job that has been the honor of my life to hold and i do so with no ill will but with enormous and enduring gratitude to of had the opportunity to serve the country that i love. >> deliver brexit, unite the country and defeat jeremy corbyn. >> we in the u.k. want to a deal. >> i want a deal. >> we will leave october 31 in all circumstances. >> this reckless government has only one plan -- to crash out a bit eu with no deal. >> this decision was unlawful. >> i strongly disagree with what
3:23 am
the justices have found. >> this unelected prime minister should now resign. not want an early election. we have gotten to a stage where we have no choice. >> we are going out there with the biggest campaign this party has ever mounted. >> this one nation conservative government has been given a powerful new mandate. >> the story of the last three and a half years will be added in and we will be able to move forward. the 2019 saw twists and turns in the brexit oligo with the deadlock over the uk's future finally broken. occupant with a strong majority and westminster has a divorce deal that is likely to pass. what can we expect in 2020? us. wall is still with what do you think we will see in 2020 -- is a hard brexit still on the table? nick: i think the withdrawal
3:24 am
agreement will pass and we will intoaving the eu shortly 2020. the next phase will be a lot more difficult. it seems the prime minister, prime minister johnson is on a path of more regulatory convergence -- regulatory divergence which will be quite hard to achieve. ha a strong majority in --liament so he cannot dela he cannot blame parliament. on withl want to get other items on the agenda and domestically as well. the french president has been to diveal about wanting into deeper issues and merkel
3:25 am
only has a maximum of a year and a half of her term. a focusnk there will be to get this wrapped up quickly. i don't want to write out a prospect of some kind of deal being signed by the end of the year. nick, thank you so much for joining us and happy new year to you. nick wall. he is going to join us on radio at 9:00 a.m. as well. let us get to our assets to watch and for that we go to annmarie hordern. >> starting with the dollar, down for a fourth day today. this comes as peter navarro says eight deal is -- a deal is complete dampening the need for the greenback. we are soft today.
3:26 am
yearll be oil's best since 2016. and bitcoin. morning. 7000 this over the course of a decade, not 9000, not 900, 9,000,000%. that is how much bitcoin has risen. really incredible. matt: imagine if you had the forethought to hook up your pc and mine for these coins. makeortune that many did but the drama that has surrounded it since then has been interesting to recover -- has been interesting to cover. >> i remember that you bought bitcoin. not: as an assignment and an investment and that is why i
3:27 am
am not shockingly rich right now. a new twist in the saga of the fallen automotive tighten as he escapes from japan. we will have the latest, next. this is bloomberg.
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
matt: welcome back to the european open. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. i'm matt miller in berlin. a lot of markets will be closed today. we are closed in germany and a lot will be open briefly, like the u.k. and france, because it is new year's eve. .2%.tock 600, down very light trading and in the sectors, i can see almost all are down. the picture we saw yesterday, although basic resources is a gainer. everything else is losing.
3:31 am
--bably more interesting this is a one-day picture. interesting, more snapshot at the very last trading day of the year. financial services have been the 39% followedr, up by construction materials, technology. no surprisethere -- there but every sector on the stock 600 is a gainer in 2019, with telecoms the only one to finish unchanged. everything else, including oil and gas, gainers. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with laura wright in london. the year isf looking brighter for the chinese economy. the manufacturing sector continued to expand in december. timet's grew for the first
3:32 am
in 18 months as a preliminary trade deal between beijing and washington is expect to be signed early january. the european central bank -- according to the incoming executive board member. she said it isn't clear if the ecb inflation goal of below but close to 2% is supposed to be symmetrical or not. the ecb is about to launch its first strategy review in over 15 years. spain, the prime minister is signaling growing confidence he will be able to form a government, but needs the backing of the catalan separatist party. this week, a final decision. if successful, he will lead spain's first coalition governments and the 1930's. the u.k. is giving a pay raise to the lowest earners. a manifesto pledge to raise living standards as the country leaves the eu. the treasury says the move puts on course for 10.50 pounds an hour up from 8.21 at
3:33 am
the moment. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt? matt: laura, thank you. laura wright in london with your first word news. it was the arrest that shocks the financial world. a little over a year ago, automotive titan carlos ghosn was put on trial in japan for allegedly financial misconduct and misuse of corporate resources. those are allegations he has denied from the get-go, but now there is a new twist. the former head of nissan and re tolt has fled to lebanon escape the "injustice and political persecution." joining me from hong kong is bloomberg's will davies. do we know anything about how carlos ghosn escaped, considering he was under house
3:34 am
arrest, he had surveillance as well as security around him? no passport, how did he get out of the country? will: it is a big twist, a huge story at the end of the year. this houdini act, how he got out. it is still a bit of a mystery. under close surveillance, video cameras on his house, he was being tracked, generally speaking and on very strict term house arrest. the mystery is how he did it. even his lawyer came out and said he was surprised by the news when he saw the tv this morning. he said he had his three passports because he is a citizen of brazil, france, and lebanon. his lawyer was confused and suggested perhaps he used a different name to get out but it is unclear. japan is closed today and the rest of the week for new year holiday. it is hard to find the main reason for it, but it has
3:35 am
left people scratching their heads. matt: difficult to get a hold of anyone, leaving market reaction aside, because this story is way beyond that, although there are still people on trial, right? greg kelly is still on trial and in japan. what becomes of these prosecutions? will: please still on trial in japan. 's triallos ghosn itself, that was due to come in the coming months. now he is in lebanon, which does not have an extradition treaty with japan. into doubt plenty because it will probably become an issue between lebanon and they are willing to send him back, but that is perhaps unlikely because carlos ghosn is a hero of sorts in
3:36 am
lebanon, where he has spent much of his youth. there were billboards in support of him, so he is a hero there. there could be some interesting negotiations ahead. matt: thanks for joining us. will davies in hong kong developing this -- uncovering this developing story. we will bring you headlines as the cross. i suspect this one will last well into 2020. today marks 20 years since latimer clinton first took power -- vladimir putin took power in russia but what is his record? joining us, someone who has covered him for many years. hordern, let's talk about the struggles vladimir putin faces. annmarie: it is obvious in the past 20 years, he has been someone who is able to bring russia back to this global might in terms of foreign policy.
3:37 am
the man thrives on foreign policy but what he struggles with now is domestic issues. economic and politically, russia faces stagnant living wages, real income is falling, the youth, the career prospects are shrinking. the approval rating was nearly 90% during the annexation of crimea crisis, but fell to 68% now. the biggest thing he will be grappling with is how does he maintain his power? his term is up in 2020 for. people close to the kremlin -- 2024. he said he will not change the constitution to add a term, but they can potentially amend the constitution so the prime minister would have more power, and there is this other potential scenario where they almost reset the clock's 20. they change the constitution for two term limits and putin restarts. one thing is clear from his 20 years and future is how he grapples with power, maintains that grip, and maintains
3:38 am
putinism with him in it or come up with a plan with him out of it. matt: energy has been critical to putin's years in office. that is your beat for us, as well. putin signed a gas deal with ukraine. what are the details? annmarie: it came down to the wire, by one day. they were able to sign this new agreement to make sure the gas flows from russia to the ukraine for the next five years. it is critical because europe relies so much on russian gas, especially when you look at some countries, even more than 50% they need russian gas. you know the story so well sitting in berlin. this relationship is very fragile, given the fact russia is trying to go to germany with nordstrostream 2. came under sanctions, so they had to stop this month but the ukraine, russia gas contract will go to 2024.
3:39 am
the gas contract will end and that is when putin's term ends. matt: i look forward to it as well, but let's wait until we get through 20 21st. -- 2020 first. annmarie, covering vladimir putin, who she has met and interviewed. coming up, what are the most likely ipo candidates for 2020? we will look into that story. which stocks are being talked berlin, thisar as live shot of the brandenburg gate, getting ready for the new year's eve celebration. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. --this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
3:40 am
3:41 am
3:42 am
matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open," on new year's eve. we are looking at markets currently trading. they will shut soon and many across europe are not trading in celebration of the holiday. you can see the ftse, cac, and ibex in madrid down. the dax is down as well as the ftse in milan.
3:43 am
austrian, polish markets all closed and early closes elsewhere. oaktree capital's founder and chairman says it is not the time for investors to be aggressive. he spoke with bloomberg at the year ahead event in new york on november 7 about the impact of very low interest rates. >> i think that the ultralow interest rates, the rates of zero and below have worked a lot of -- warped calculations. ourse, in the small picture sense, it makes sense that companies have taken on more debt because it is so cheap. you can borrow money and own nothing for a year. why wouldn't you? the more debt you have, the less likely you are to get through economic difficulty, but in the
3:44 am
meantime, there has been a lot of levering up at all levels. >> where do you see levels -- evidence of warped calculations? >> for example, the pension fund that needs a return of 7.5 and can't use cash, money markets, get what it or even thinks it needs from stocks and bonds pushes out to alternative .nvestments private debt, private equity, venture capital and things like that. >> it has been great for oaktree -- >> and our peers. when we started oaktree, my colleagues and i left the firm where we were managing $7 billion and our hope was to get back to 7 billion. now we are in 120 so that gives you an idea, when we started oak tree, the word alternative investment didn't exist and now
3:45 am
it is extremely important. that is an area of excess. the capital has flowed to the alternative markets. you've heard me before described the people doing it as handcuffed volunteers. they are doing something because they think they have to. because oforry negative interest rates, because we have quantitative easing, that the old rules of the game don't apply any longer, and if they don't, what do you do? howard: that's really one of the most important questions. i wrote a memo two months ago called this time, it is different. historically, the words have been used by people to rationalize bullishness that didn't work out in the past and violations of the norms that prevailed in the past like
3:46 am
valuations and that kind of thing. templeton said 20% at the time, it really is different and nowadays, you have the sense it will be more. you can't say the old rules apply and you can say that in the absence of the old rules you know how this will come out. we are in a difficult period. that was oaktree capital's cofounder and chairman howard marks speaking with bloomberg last month. some of the most valuable startups in the u.s. could be ready to go public in 2020. that is according to a new analysis. annmarie hordern is here with the details. they mentioned strike doordash,-- strike,
3:47 am
they said the deal activity will chug along into next year and we continued to see the rally in equity markets and where i thought was interesting about the report is they see the fourth year of the u.s. presidents year typically spells a rush to public markets during the first half. since the lackluster market, president comes potentially last year in office, high valuations on startups. six months, we could be talking about going public. matt: fascinating the fourth annmarie-- hordern, thank you. coming up, a 9,000,000% gain. that is how much this decade's best performing asset has risen since 2010. coin'sl discuss bit
3:48 am
rally next. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:49 am
3:50 am
matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." we are 50 minutes into the trading day and where markets trading, theytill are currently down. let's get the bloomberg business flash with laura wright in london.
3:51 am
laura: jpmorgan wants full control over its futures joint venture in china. we learned the bank plans to boost its stake from 49% to 100%, the first global lender taking advantage of the opening of the futures market. china is allowing full foreign control of firms from january 1. are suingostmates california, alleging a labor unconstitutional, a preemptive move against the state's landmark measure to ensure gig workers get employment protections. it willanies argue affect flexibility and him part -- unfairly target certain companies. huawei will overhaul its executive ranks next year after growth slowed further in the second half of 2019 with u.s. sanctions spooking customers and suppliers around the globe. china's top text company is bracing for a painful year if the ut -- u.s. maintains restrictions. that's your bloomberg business/.
3:52 am
matt: happy new year's eve to you. it is the last trading day of the year. let's look at where you would have made the most money in the equities market. joining us, sam unstead from the equities team. besides spectacular for the indexes, what have we seen in stocks? , a story ofost part individual winners and losers. the trade war, brexit has had an impact, but the biggest winners and worst performers, it is individual stories. matt: who are the individual winners, then? sam: the biggest winner is altis europe, a telecom and cable's company. weighere way down by -- ed down by debt. , bestlish videogame
3:53 am
performer of the decade in the stock 600 and the company best known for their vegan sausage rolls and accompany beloved of football fans in this country. matt: have you had one of the vegan sausage rolls? sam: i have and they are very good and popular across the bloomberg office in london, i think. it has been a big winner for them because they tapped into a market they weren't previously able to hit and it has been successful. matt: what about the worst performers? who have been the worst losers in europe winners? sam: the worst performer was a dropped 72%, they in a single day so they are by far the worst performer and are still in the stock 600 closing the year out. health, another when the felon the year after they came under attack from the short seller. -- dollars,s not as
3:54 am
not expect a killer as the winners. matt: new year's eve, we will take a moment of levity, you sponsorship of a football team. what is your club and how did they fare in 2019? unitedm in manchester fan, and not that well. greg's can help all they want, but for manchester, not a boost. matt: we hope they do better for you. throes of this bull market's early stages, someone told you to forget about commodities, renounce fixed-income assets and buy an unknown digital token and watch it grow beyond your wildest dreams, you would have called them crazy. annmarie hordern has a chart that proves bitcoin over the last 10 years have been wrong. annmarie: definitely wrong over
3:55 am
the last 10 years. bitcoin was the best performer of the decade, but probably very controversial. you can see the booms and busts over the years but the entire decade, up 9,000,000%. 9,000,000% over 10 years. no other asset comes even close to beating that over the last 10 years as we enter this decade. the next few years will be critical for bitcoin. they struggled with mass adoption, so that will make it whether or not a payment form they will need to adopt. will likely face intensified scrutiny when it comes to regulatory hurdles. matt: just to give you a shot. i know you are no fan of the nfl. you've made that clear. , and in america, a lot of women grow up playing
3:56 am
soccer as did you. do you support a british club? annmarie: i like uventis. matt: are they dutch? annmarie: they are italian. you know who they are and they are a football club. matt: got it, a "football club." it has been a pleasure working with you this year. stay with bloomberg television. next, "surveillance." i'm headed to radio for an hour. tune in on london bab digital radio or on your mobile device and i will be back in another hour to take you through the rest of surveillance as toma dn on a well-earned holiday. in the meantime, have a great 2020. ♪ when it comes to using data, everyone is different.
3:57 am
3:58 am
3:59 am
which is why xfinity mobile is a different kind of wireless network that lets you design your own data. choose unlimited, shared data, or mix lines of each and switch any line, anytime. giving you more choice and control compared to other top wireless carriers. save up to $400 a year when you switch. plus, unwrap $250 off a new samsung phone. click, call or visit a store today.
4:00 am
>> a fallen automotive giant flees to lebanon saying he couldn't get a free -- fair trial in japan. peter navarro says a trade deal is in the bag. china's manufacturing expands in december. a rally to remember. years poised for its best since 2016 and bitcoin is up 9,000,000% since 2010. ♪ nejra:


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on