tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg February 4, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
the funny thing about it, as we see from market participants, a lot of them were unaware that down 15%.aps were i." you type in "should there it is. also, should i stay or should i go, should i get a flu shot, should i text him. theine: the s&p rally in, biggest gain since august. amazon, what is going on there? scarlet: above the $1 trillion mark. romaine: do we celebrate that anymore? scarlet: a little bit of a dime
a dozen in this market. romaine: we did have second-tier companies rallying on legitimate news. earningselatively good from ralph lauren. that was the stock of the hour last hour. there are some positive signals. scarlet: it feels like the market just wants to go higher for -- go higher. let's check in with our reporters. glass half-full at least today, copper. copper had been down about two weeks in a row. in 14s the first update or 15 sessions. downtrend has been caused by the kovar virus
-- the coronavirus fears. resources theural largest from karen -- from china and the coronavirus eats into that. copper is still down sharply. down 11%. we had the dow transports down 4.4%. 500 downave the s&p about 1%. we may have a rally on the day but the buyers have to be convinced that more work has to be done to the upside to wipe out those losses for copper but also for the s&p 500 stocks. taylor: i am looking at earnings that will cross the bell any moment. streaming numbers, not only signing up new members, but
keeping them. and, the closing of the theme parks in china. what impact that may have. asney, since they launched streaming service, they are still underperforming netflix. netflix, about 22% or so, but they are outperforming comcast. streaming, versus not streaming versus streaming. >> sharp reversal in markets. u.s.futures fall and the dollar, which gold is priced in actually rises. futures more than 1% down on the day. economy, impeachment
proceedings, the global economy. has turned gold lower. a 1550 to $1600 per ounce. worries tore so many think about globally. joe: i want to bring you some breaking news. dow jones reporting that the department store, macy's, is planning to close 125 stores, exiting malls. cutting 2000lso corporate jobs or 10% of corporate and support staff. us, cantor fitzgerald chief market strategist. and, amy groenefeld. some of these safe havens coming
off, but overall for the year, it has been very good still for safe havens, u.s. treasuries. be an treasuries important part of one's portfolio peter: --one's portfolio? peter: it is a great question. scarlet: let me interrupt, disney results. 20.86 million dollars. than revenue, higher anticipated. median income in line with what analysts had been looking for 25ney plus subscribers, million. they were looking for 20.8 26.5 million.
they were looking for 20 .8 million. thatne: we will talk about a little bit later. ford also adjusting earnings. 2020eadline number for ford beating adjusted even -- adjusted ebitda. to 6.6 is the range. average, 3.7 billion. shares down in after hours trading. the ford cfo is telling bloomberg that our fenton -- performancenancial fell short. we have abundant opportunity to improve customer experience and strengthen our results."
7% int: off by after-hours trading. disney, as a comparison. disney plus subscribers better than anticipated. espn plus subscribers a lot smaller. hulu subscribers as well. if you were to look at disney as a streaming company, it is not a self-sustaining business, it is a lossmaking business. peter.: still with us, of two earnings here completely different businesses, but it does seem to reflect a broader trend. the bifurcation is represented perfectly. when you look at the company ,ike an auto company like ford
more and more they are reliant on consumers access to credit. one of the things i am really concerned about, lending standards are starting to tighten. today, theyme out have been tightening in fender -- in commercial real estate. loan standards for the consumer are important. demand for loans in autos in particular has been weakening. companies, that is a preference to entertainment and experiences. you would rather not own a house or drive a fancy car but what one half an -- but what want to have an experience at a theme park, for example. the talking about
importance of the consumer, it does kind of come back to that question. >> that is what we have been saying for the past week, past two weeks. past these virus fears, the data has been holding up. like perhaps looks the virus is being contained. it is impossible to know. but you had great tech earnings, very strong data. peter, when it comes to the coronavirus headline, i think a lot of people continue to look at central bank reports. what kind of net effect does that have here? we knew that china would come in
and do whatever it took. that could be the real reason. that and i quality robin hood rally. swipe right to buy stocks. sort of mindless investing. i think there is an equivalence between a bad event happening and the expectation. about onedeliver, trillion yuan stimulus overnight, which is the biggest stimulus we have seen from the and quite some time. how does the fed react? well they back off their own hold body language? just to come quickly back to joe's point about the rates .arket
whether it is the slow down or globally, that is not telling a new highs on equity story. we had a reconversion of the curve this week. curve that isa very sensitive to any fears. romaine: 2.6 points right now. i want to thank global fitzgerald global chief market strategist peter for joining us today. shares are trading lower after hours, down about 11%. 550.9-quarter revenue of million. outlook fors to the 470 quarter, 450 to million. that is a drop.
i am joe weisenthal. romaine: there is no alternative. what does the market's fall and rise in response to the coronavirus say? tesla's stock of rally has one analyst drawing comparison to the cryptocurrency run. and, waiting on iowa. we expect to get results later this hour. first, a quick check on some breaking news. a lot of earnings out. ford coming out with their earnings. $.12.ing in the estimate was for $.17. adjusted ebitda forecast, the 4.6 billion. doubt about 9% right now.
scarlet: disney is the outlier. it is the only one of these companies gaining. , 26.5 plus subscribers million. 20.8were looking for million. when they launched, they told us they had about 10 million. a lot of thems, were on a free trial. snap tumbling after revenue for the fourth quarter misses analyst estimates. 560 million. analysts were looking for almost 563 million. daily active users coming in higher but the revenue miss. 20% on this idea they were gaining. company, match
group, the company that owns tender. it looks like they missed on the bottom and top line. of eps versus $.48 expected. rough performance. aarlet: we want to stick with good story, disney. let's bring in a u.s. media analyst for bloomberg intelligence. this is a company whose stock used to move on how espn was doing. now, it is all pivoting off of the disney plus subscriber number. >> that is a really good number for disney plus. they have gotten off to an extremely strong start. it was a very risky bet for them to make to streaming but they
have shown they can do it. they have the brands that appeal across the globe. it has really done well for them. future,the foreseeable does this stock move on the seekment of how well they to execute on their streaming service. >> i think so. it has been this shift to streaming. they obviously had an absolutely flawless execution. to grow those subscribers in a matter of seven weeks is phenomenal. yearsk netflix about six to get to that total of 25 million subscribers in the u.s.. this is only a domestic launch.
they are going to launch in some of the other overseas markets in europe. obviously could get a little bit of a bump. streaming is the big story for disney. in ane: profit did come little bit lower than it was the previous year. is -- babyeaming yoda and all of these other big properties don't come cheap. $800 million an operating income impact this quarter. it probably will weigh on the bottom line. all of the subscriber games. profitability is not going to comfort -- going to come for many years down the road.
scarlet: the parks division was one of the bright spots but because it relied so heavily on asia-pacific, particularly china, the coronavirus may cause that spending to be lost. what does the coronavirus uncertainty mean about protecting the parks division -- projecting the parks division 11,ha: 12 million visitors per year. that park is not especially profitable just yet. i don't think it has a large impact in terms of financial impact. hong kong, disneyland, they were already having some impact. around $80 million of operating income impact. downwardl be some pressure in earnings but i don't think it will be anything
the with cases of coronavirus continuing to increase, the u.k. is asking its citizens to leave china. bloomberg'sd by shery ahn and drew armstrong. what is sort of the next thing we are looking from your perspective in terms of the official response in mainland china, and uncle, and elsewhere? shery: i would like to see more coordination. ofhave seen the wto complain
an international health emergency. yesterday, the u.s. was saying they offered support. saying you didck not really do too much. at this point, we have seen hong tog take its own measures close most of the checkpoints. that has been a great point of contention within the hong kong society. seeing the first death outside of the mainland. this will cause more chaos and unrest inside hong kong. has kind of taken a a lot of impressive measures to try to keep the economy humming. ask the u.s. for a little bit of flexibility on the trade deals. shery: they came out of sort of
a mouthpiece for the chinese government, citing a researcher saying, perhaps habits will be delayed in the quarter, they could make up through an increase for the second quarter and later part of the year. larry kudlow is saying that the u.s. is not expecting an export boom. more than $50 billion in energy goods. try to. won't when it comes to really cutting the contagious coronavirus, it can. doing what we going to get a sense at some point in the next few days whether the dramatic corentin
efforts at efficacy? drew: looking at a calendar, eiok at what happened in hub wuhan on locking down january 23. the incubation period is somewhere around 14 days. windowright now in that where we will begin to know whether hoopty -- whether people who left ahead of the corentin begin to show symptoms and other places. if it does, the quarantine may not have worked. the right now, still overwhelming number of cases in the world and in china are in hubei province. we can't read too much into it yet, the fact that there is not another wuhan. disease and many
people is quite mild. this is a disease that as an individual, we don't have a lot to be concerned about. as a society, we have a great deal to be concerned about, just as with the flu. epidemics and diseases are lumpy. u.s.the flu comes to the every year, it is a smaller outbreak here, smaller outbreak there. we have to treat this is something that can unfold differently over time. scarlet: thank you so much for the latest on the coronavirus. the iowa democratic chair will be addressing the media at 4:45 eastern time. we know that they plan to report the results of most of the caucuses by 5:00 p.m. eastern. ♪
with i am mark crumpton bloomberg's first word news. we are expecting to hear from the iowa democratic party shortly. releases say they will most of the results from by 5:00 p.m.uses eastern time. they said the party worked through the night to check the quality on the results. joe biden's campaign is pushing back. stay tuned to bloomberg as our special coverage of the iowa caucus results. housemcconnell slamming democrats trying to impeach president trump as, "the most rushed, least fair, and least thorough in history." he opened the session by calling
the impeachment charges constitutionally incoherent. has deniednell questions about whether trump's actions were appropriate. print -- aising wide-ranging press covers today. one of the topics was the response to the coronavirus. epidemic been an situation that has been growing in a meaningful way. china has in its resources and in his capacity -- enormous resources and enormous capacity to respond. added that china itself was the first to recognize that.
china's consul general in new york told citizens to report themselves to health officials so they can be monitored for symptoms. the consul general said, due to u.s. privacy laws, it has been difficult to gather information on who traveled to and from hubei province. they said, "the virus is the enemy, not the chinese." against the coronavirus shows that all of us are interlinked and interdependent. world should the put aside their differences and unite together daniel: -- together. mark: he said china was doing
everything it could to contain the outbreak and cooperating with the international community to find a cure. global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. joe: with the coronavirus continuing to spread, the market still trying to decipher how much of a threat it is to human life and activity. we continue to see upward pressure on the s&p 500 here with more, bloomberg opinion columnist john authers. how surprised are you by the degree this seems to be taking. at the minimum, a major disruption to the economy. we know it is a significant
disruption to china. >> to be honest, pretty surprised. i can't explain quite what the logic is that as people look in this way. a bounce back is quickly when there is no clear view to suggest the virus is under control. it is a worry situation. logic isthe contorted centered on the fact that banks are there to support the economy and support the market. --john: we are in an extended goldilocks environment. not too hot but not too cold. point, not long ago,
there was a clear sense that we really were at the point of inflation once the trading deal. you can see currencies going up nicely, commodities going up nicely. they have all absolutely tanked. because that then leads to a situation, what are central banks going to do about this? they find it very difficult to do anything aggressive while this virus is out there. romaine: a lot of people are banging this drum, running for the hills right now. there was some sort of economic data that seemed to back up the reflation trade taking place. that has not really been
disrupted just yet. we have not seen the real impact of the coronavirus show up. but people can still hang their hat on the data we have seen so far. ahn: given that it was reflation at the beginning of the year, what the chinese government has had to do to contain this virus already, i think we can take it as a given china's economy is going to contract. joe: i want to go back to this , not tooot too hot cold. there has always been something that freaks people out. whether it was nuclear concerns. that this kind of thing these are good but they also have the tendency to prolong the
middle path if they are contained in the end. years,he last couple of jay powell really thought he was going to normalize rates. it felt like reflation was coming, then coronavirus. stocks continue to surge higher. bloomberg correspondent john authers, thank you. we are awaiting the iowa democratic chairman to address media at 4:45 p.m. eastern time. release the party to the majority of results by 1:00 p.m. local time. keep it right here. ♪
joe: you are watching special iowa coverage here on bloomberg muchision as the delayed results are expected within minutes. on theght cast doubts role in the presidential process. what will this year's troubles tech and how about the used in the election ahead? by, waitingwe stand to hear from the iowa democratic
party, we want to bring in john noris. iowar state chair of the democratic party. with what happened last night. there were some changes, including an attempt to make it more complex. do we know why they were not allowed to get the data in a more reliable fashion to get the results out? i believe they had some app problems. remember, this is all volunteer driven. app had the problem, you go to the old-fashioned way on the phones. it caused a delay.
saying thisf people is the end of the iowa caucus. caucuses may be undemocratic as they are, people have to take time, then you add in the screwup. do you believe this could be the iowa's role as the first state to go? john: obviously, they say this is the end of the iowa caucus or the iowa-new hampshire process every cycle. there will be pressure on change. i think the changes this time helped contribute to the overload of information that shut things down. it remains to be seen. conversation that takes place after the general election.
anys premature to make predictions right now. romaine: we don't need to make connections. there have been questions about the caucus process in general. you are one of only four states to rely on this. wyoming, north dakota are others. why does the caucus process produced anything more tangible compared to the normal going to the polls? organic is the most democratic participatory project. you have people in a room having a conversation. a level ofolitics to conversation that i think helps the democratic process. candidates are discussed both with the candidate and with your
neighbors, friends, community. that is a healthy dose of democracy. whether that can mesh with today's desire for instantaneous results, that we have to work through. it is contributed to a productive conversation with candidates and voters, that you will lose if you go to a primary system where it is all tv driven. coming out of iowa, dubbed -- does this become a battle of who wins most on tv. upstart candidates, have a chance to compete. app.a lot of focus on this obviously, in the old days, there was no need for apps. wnith pens and paper, it seemed to work
fine. reform, orneed to be , asinking, or slowing down parties or state governments think about outsourcing electoral solutions to tech companies and moving away from what had been tried and true for a long time? john: i think that would be helpful, if states looked at how to help ensure quality data. there is not a lot of patient capital out there. there is not a lot of patient politics out there. people want instant information. how much do we adapt to fill that desire or how much do we make sure we preserve and maintain the integrity and the
think the iowa i democratic party is trying to do right now. make sure they have accurate results. i think that is a more critical role and rapid response. out years ago, you found that romney did not win the iowa caucus about two weeks after. to john our thanks norris, former state chair of the iowa democratic party. we are going to continue our special coverage of not only what is going on here in iowa trump'save president state of the union address. nike is lower in after-hours trading. the company saying that the coronavirus will have a material impact on expectations.
a lot of its manufacturing business. it also says that on the retail side, about half of its nike owned stores have temporary closed. more in d.c. and on the consequences of iowa, we are joined by anna edgerton. because of the weirdness of what has transpired over the past 24 , it doesn't matter who with -- it matters who loses. but whether it is sanders who thator whoever, the fact that victory would be so clouded by the other events that we are unlikely to see as much bounce.
anna: it matters for some candidates more than others. pete buttigieg banked on winning and histo propel him campaign never expected to do that well. bloomberg news was one of the first to report that his ground game was inadequate. he is really focused on some of the later states, especially south carolina. it kind of depends on which candidate has plotted out the strategies. when it comes to the position of iowa in the democratic party, that will be a conversation for after these results,, how this should work, how it went wrong. from a few ofard the candidates last night, some going so far as to say that they
won the caucus. have they all pretty much left iowa and onto new hampshire? is on the road. there was some concern from the biden campaign that the results should not be released tonight. there was a statement from the sanders campaign, we should get these results out, move on. it will be a busy spring. there are a lot more contests to go before we have any idea who is the candidate. even coming out of iowa, there is not a clear front runner. it is a race that will depend on a series of primaries and caucuses. joe: super tuesday, delegates will be awarded that day. we have new hampshire coming up
and it looks like sanders is the favorite. anna: that's right. new hampshire is a small state, early in the primary. there is indication that elizabeth warren and bernie sanders would do well there. but there could be a look toward the center and a bump for pete to change -- for pete buttigieg. south carolina is where biden has to compete well. reaching out to the local leaders to make sure he can demonstrate his viability not through the wider states but through the more diverse states. , we are as you can see still waiting for this press conference to start. york,n the studio in new we want to bring into the
conversation larry norton from the brennan center for justice. this app. about problemmed to be the last night. larry: i think it is very important that the purpose of this app was to send over results that were tabulated at the precinct site. it was really a reporting thing. howad nothing to do with votes were tallied. ofaine: people are sort physically in a room together, saying what their votes will be, and lobbying other people to switch their votes. then they are tallied.
that was supposed to be put into the app. larry: yes, and they have paper records which is what they will now use. votingwas prevented from as far as we know. they will be able to get accurate tallies. there is just this delay. joe: we have this weird thing where different states do it differently and during the primary, parties run this. does there need to be a broader rethink about technology vendors and the speed they rollout new solutions so people have confidence? you point out, there are paper records. good fort do that election integrity. this contest was run by
the democratic party, not the state of bio. most election officials would technology onew the election. this is like macy's rolling out new cash registers on black friday. usually what election officials want to do, in the smaller contests where there is not a lot of turnout, you pilot new technology. romaine: there is a bigger issue here. to, or atrt of gone least tried to move the country towards electronic balloting. a lot of states have gotten pushback, whether the integrity of footing machines or breakdowns. is this sense to kind of
digitize everything kind of working against us for something that is so important like our vote? have some want to sort of paper back up, paper record. if they were actually casting votes on this app, that would have been a disaster. the second thing, we want paper backups. most states have been moving away from purely electronic. we want to have resiliency. we want to make sure that if systems fail, there is a backup. they did have a hotline but it was really not meant for a total systemwide failure. waitingcourse, we are for that press conference from the iowa democratic party. i want to bring back anna
inerton from bloomberg news, rdc bureau. i want to talk about the political ramifications. the fact that we did not get a result, does that allow some of the lower performing candidates kind of an excuse to stay on. it did not look like the klobuchar momentum really materialized. on to news, she is hampshire. i wonder some of that will get lost in the wash. the delayn't think itself will impacted that much. anna, i've got to interrupt you here. we are going to iowa. bit about a little what happened last night.
results,ting of the the circumstances around the democratic caucuses, were unacceptable. as chair of the party, i apologize deeply. withnight, we were faced multiple reporting challenges and decided to protect the integrity of the iowa caucuses and their results by taking the necessary steps to review and confirm the data. a thorough, transparent examination of what occurred yesterday will follow. priority has been on ensuring the accuracy and integrity of the results. we have been working all night to be the best position to report results. in the next few minutes, we will precinctsng 60% of
from all 99 counties. we had a stumbling lock on the back and of the data. we know that this data is accurate. trail andve a paper documentation that have been able to use to provide information to verify the results. this is personal to me. iowan.lifelong i know how important it is to our party, our state, and everyone from neighbors to new voters to come together across the state. iowans to be confident in the process and we will take the time we need to do just that. i am happy to take a couple of quick questions for results come
in. we have been working day and night to make sure these results are accurate. the underlying data is secure. it was always secure. this was a coding error in one of the pieces on the backend but the raw data is secure. >> [inaudible] is, this is a conversation that will happen every four years. right now, my focus is making sure we get these results out. we will have the results out as soon as we can.
we are going to take the time we need. now that we have the first batch that will be coming out in a couple of minutes, we are going to continue to go through our processes. the thing to remember, we have a paper trail. we have always said that we have backups, we have redundancies is, as wehe fact night, doing this last it took longer than expected. my paramount concern is making sure these results are accurate and reflect what happened last night and caucuses across the state. we are going to do just that. >> when was the app submitted for review?
why was the app never tested statewide? of the have no knowledge department of homeland security making that offer to us. we have worked with nationally renowned cybersecurity experts to do checks on this app. we took the steps we felt was necessary. we found a coding error last night once we noticed some irregularities. no, there weren't. that is why what happened last