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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  February 24, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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100,000 hurt him speak alongside the prime minister. mr. trump says the u.s. will sign military deals with india worth more than $3 billion. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is banking on president trump's middle east plan to bring in the votes of the country's west bank settlers. but he has doubled over his promises to quickly carry out annexation of west bank settlements. israel heads to the polls for the third time in less than a year next monday. in the previous two rounds, neither netanyahu or challenger benny gantz was able to secure a 61% parliamentary majority. the white house is getting ready to respond to a budget request to address the down the coronavirus outbreak. the department of health and human services has already tapped into an emergency infectious disease rapid response fund and is seeking to transfer more than $130 million from other hhs accounts to combat the virus but is pressing for more.
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a white house official says a response could come this week. there has been a breakthrough in libya peace talks. the united nations says the country's warring sides have agreed to turn a cease-fire into a lasting deal. weeks of sporadic violence have derailed negotiations and dashed hopes for a more permanent agreement. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, six :00 in london, 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to bloomberg markets.
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories we are following. a sea of red for global stocks. the s&p 500 wiping out its 2020 gains and posting its worst day in two years. investors fearful as the coronavirus spreads far beyond china, potentially upending global economic growth. seek safe havens, gold looms toward $1700 an ounce. we talked to the ceo of sibanye stillwater, who may target m&a worth $5 billion to expand its gold portfolio. kailey leinz is with us halfway into the trading day. the dow is down more than 1000. kailey: we are deeply in the red, down more than 3%. 2018, driven since by fears of the coronavirus. there is a lot of conviction behind the selling.
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volume about 40% above average for this time of day. the dow now down by more than 1000 points. the s&p down by more than 100. that is the first time we have seen that in some time. for the dow, this would be the third worst day in history if we close at these levels. the s&p has only been down more than 100 points three times ever. of course this is following a down week last week. investors giving back a lot of the gains we had seen in 2020. today, the selling is broad-based. i want to look at autos. as we know, very vulnerable in this coronavirus heritage in the way that it can affect supply chains, as well as its impact on a slowdown on economic growth. autos were among the big laggards in the european session, and they are down here as well. note, tesla down more
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than 7.5%, getting back a big chunk of the gains that we have seen. exposure, aas china new factory in shanghai. that stock is coming back down to earth a little bit today. it would be a miss to talk about the markets without talking about bonds. the 30-year old at a fresh record. the 10-year now at 1.36. that is five basis points away from a record low. all of this buying driven by the crazy bids we are seeing in safe havens today. vonnie: thank you. on that note, let's bring in cantor fitzgerald's peter cecchini. 13180 we past that 1. saw in 2016? >> i think we do. we were starting at lower levels than we did in 15, 16.
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in our outlook this year, we contemplated 1.25 on the 10-year even before the sinking we see from coronavirus. we thought that would be a second-half story based really on a roll over in fundamental economic data, which clearly has been pulled forward quite a bit by the coronavirus. 1.25 onnk we could see the 10-year. i think late in the year we could even see a bull steepener, if the fed is forced to cut more aggressively than people thought just weeks ago. vonnie: it is interesting what you said but i want to ask if this is an indication that there will already nerves among investors that this bull market was coming to a close, that it was more fragile than it seems on first glance. peter: i have been cautious for several months now. of the market rally
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has been one thing i've been stocksed about with four essentially dominating the entire rally in the s&p 500, dispersion eating up in small caps, the russell 2000 not making new highs, transports, regional banks challenged, with the yield curve already somewhat flat, indicating that there were some nerves here. that is why we are seeing such aggressive selling today. a lot of people were somewhat skeptical of the reasons behind the rally. , in our the last stage view, has been driven by retail, which is sometimes not the strongest hand. vonnie: i want to mention the spread, below 11 basis points now, in context of what you said about the federal reserve easing more this year. is the fed looking at something like the 2/10 spread and dividing what will happen to the economy, or is it a case of an
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representing something else, not the fact that we may be going into recession? clearly, i don't have any unique insight into the mind of the fed. however, i would say, empirically, we can notice when the 10-year goes below fed fun leanthat makes the fed ea toward and ease. when the yield curve becomes as flat as it has, has inverted as it has, that chills lending activity. lending activity is the basis for economic growth we have had since the previous recession. the reason for that is, when net interest margins are affected by a flatter yield curve, banks are less likely to lend. loan volumes fall, which weighs
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on growth. relative to this idea that the yield curve is not telling us anything anymore, i do not buy that. isfact, what it has told us that global growth has been quite weak. that is one of the reasons why the u.s. curve has been so flat. lower yields a broad to longer yields here in the u.s. moreover, it becomes causal. less curved leads to less lending, less growth. vonnie: is this enough of a selloff for you to get interested again? the nasdaq down 4%, s&p down 3.5%. is this just an affirmation of what you were expecting, and therefore not a time to buy? peter: in markets like this, you have to think tactically. at 3200, the market could be ripe for a bounce for technical reasons. but i have been cautious since
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-- let's call it even 2100 on the s&p -- on the context of earnings growth. we had none in 2019. we still have elevated multiples, even after today's selloff. 20-plus times trailing. small caps are very similar in terms of the setup for earnings. , 2019, was year negative by 15%. inhink this is the first leg what will be a more pronounced selloff, but not without plenty of ups and downs in the meantime. vonnie: thank you for joining us today, a busy day. peter cecchini, cantor fitzgerald's chief market strategist. the market's down 3.5% right now. the 10-year at 1.3555. below 11ad right points.
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. coronavirus cases spiking outside of china right now, sparking concerns of a global pandemic. seventh death a today as the country's financial hub is an virtual lockdown. in hong kong, we are monitoring what is becoming a global threat. what is the latest in terms of numbers? 79,440 infections, so nearly 80,000. 2624 deaths. the who still refuses to call it a pandemic.
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a pandemic is defined as something, a disease which has an uncontrollable spread. as we been talking about, we have uncontrolled cases around the world as well. you mention italy, over 200 cases, seven dead. 13 people last week, now we have 760 and multiple debts on top of that. kuwait, afghanistan also reporting fresh cases of the covid-19 disease. that is where we are at the moment. at the same time, we have mixed messages coming out of china. hubei province is on lockdown. wuhan as well. peopleng like 50 million are unable to leave their respective towns and villages and cities. wuhan earlier suggested that nonresidents could lead, providing they were not showing any symptoms, i.e. healthy, but then that order was rescinded.
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this is something which is continuing to spread. when it ends, nobody knows. the replacement of the restrictions was pretty terrifying. does china consider itself responsible for finding a cure, isn't asking for help from anybody else? it is looking at gilead pharmacies, they have tried some plasma treatments, taking recovered patients and using their blood plasma. some positive results. as far as any cure goes, we are nowhere near. the who continues to suggest this is still an epidemic, not a pandemic. perhaps more importantly, we talked about the mixed messages in wuhan. there is a meeting taking place which have been postponed, the
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first time that happened. that sends another message. we also had a conference call affirming that, sending out a message, releasing some excerpts. perhaps xi jinping is using this to actually centralize more control into his hands. that has many market participants not taking it is a great sign. that is where we are with that. vonnie: thank you. of whatxtensive picture is going on, including for the financial community. haad, of course, after 2:00 a.m. for us. investors preparing for the spreads,the virus snapping of u.s. treasuries and sending the 10-year plunging, but how low can it go?
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in katie greifeld. weekend?ged over the we saw a move to the downside last week when apple gave the morning, but suddenly lower today. italy, at new is least investors that i talked to. milan closing schools, events. that is what is feeding those fears. this could turn into an epidemic in china to a global pandemic. we see the treasury market absorbing most of that. if you look around the world at the sovereign debt market, it is still a positive yield. not to mention cases in the u.s. relative to the size of the population has not contained in at this point. vonnie: what are strategist saying about what could tip the 10-year yield below its previous low of 1.3180? that would be a significant episode. katie: it would be.
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it feels like it wouldn't take much at this point. if you asked strategists last week where we would be, most would not tell you 1.35. the speed of this move has been breathtaking. it will be interesting to see, when asia starts reacting to this news, whether that is enough to tip us over. i was talking to columbia threadneedle this morning and they said there is no way you a historical chart right now and say there is value in these bonds. but there is nowhere else to go. vonnie: italy and greece is where we are seeing any selling today. ing all around the world with yields everywhere going lower. what about the yield curve, the , if the federal reserve looks at that, how are they interpreting it? katie: markets have been so year to write out the yield curve as a signal. you are seeing some commentary
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to say this is something to pay attention to. the message it is sending is investors expect this virus will be a bigger hit to growth and inflation than central-bank policy makers are letting on at this point. the fact that you see the long and rally so much shows inflation expectations are dropping. we are probably not going to see a big, global economic recovery. it will not be a rapid rebound. that will probably force the hand of central-bank policy makers, including the fed, ecb. vonnie: we continue to go lower. our thanks to the katie greifeld. still ahead, you'll hear from the ceo of the world's top platinum miner, sibanye stillwater. is disrupting his commodity markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg
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markets. i'm vonnie quinn. commodity world majorly disrupted by the spreading coronavirus. gold surging to a seven-year high estimate are safe havens climb. we are there with a key voice. >> thank you very much. neal froneman is the ceo of sibanye stillwater. thank you for making time for us. i want to start with coronavirus. your company is a little bit unusual, the stock is at a rest -- massive rally over the past year because of your palladium assets. you also have gold, platinum. impact on thet company so far from all of the churn we are seeing in metals prices? >> our share took a knock today. because we are prominently seen as a pjim company, a company
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that has underlying demand for its products. anything relating to a virus or global economic turmoil will impact our share price. however, hedging that is our exposure to gold. you saw golden valley today. unfortunately, the market looked at us and thought we had a bigger industrial pending than a gold underpinning. >> what about the potential operational risks from coronavirus? where would you see the vulnerability in terms of supply chains, operations, if this continues to get worse? >> there are really three areas we need to think about. the products that we sell, pjim's, any disruptions to manufacturing industries the what the world will obviously impact them. there will be less demand, which is what shocked the markets this morning.
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our operations in south africa are really some sufficient and mainly labor-intensive. other than the virus becoming pronounced in south africa, we should be ok there. in the u.s., we are very mechanized. any implications around manufacturing of machines will obviously have a knock on. we are not seeing any of these knock on effects. we read more about them than we see at the moment. is there a particular asset or country where you think you might be more vulnerable if the case number's continue to rise? >> i would say countries that are more linked to interaction with china through physical contact. ofafrica, there is a lot physical contact with chinese people, there are a lot of chinese workers in africa. that could have an impact. we have chinese shale. although it is global now,
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people all over the world have it. hard to say -- >> certainly. you have to be very careful where you travel. it is not just china. >> you talked about the hits that your stock took today. we spoke last night. you spoke about the potential for a very large acquisition. i don't know if that is affecting the stock at all today. the interview,in after you reinstate the dividend, repay the debt, but you said potentially $5 billion for a north american shallow gold asset. what kind of timeline are you looking at? >> we are probably looking six months to nine month. >> before you start looking or pull the trigger? >> pulled the trigger. a lot of work to do before that. a lot can change. of course, today, there's been a reversal in terms of the valuation gaps we have seen.
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havehas gone up, pjm's gone down. i'm confident that things will pan out in our favor in the short term. >> if you are right, and in 6, 9 months you start actively trolling for one of these assets, you said to me, are there specific companies in your sight? >> i cannot mention the companies. in terms of scale, within six months to nine months, we will pull the trigger. >> you will be ready to buy something for $4 billion to $5 billion? >> absolutely, yes. >> that makes me think that you are in discussions with somebody right now. are you? >> we are looking at various assets. we have a number of opportunities. we are not having any specific discussions yet. there is still a lot of work to do. entering into discussions, doing
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due diligence, getting all of the financing in place is probably a six months process. >> would you go hostile for that kind of offer? >> no. i don't believe in hostile takeovers. it is too risky. >> thank you very much, neil. that to you. danielle.r thanks to coming up, we will be speaking about how theer virus is affecting emerging markets. the s&p 500 down 3.6%. just nine stocks higher in the entire index. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and bnn bloomberg audiences. it is a sea of red for global stocks. s&p 500 has wiped out its gains its2020 and is hosting worst day in two years. the dow is losing up to 1000 points on some points. emerging markets are not immune from the selloff. the msci index having its worst day in six months. we dig into the specific pressure points. and is globalization under attack? finance cheese from the world's largest economies realizing the coronavirus have exposed the vulnerabilities in globalization itself. vonnie: let's get a quick check on major u.s. averages. they are following the cues of averages around the world, and we are losing steam as we had through the session. the dow down 3.4%. it was done more than 1000 points a little while ago. the s&p 500 down 3.3%. the nasdaq down 3.7%.
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we will be examining the chipmakers in a moment. this is where most of the action is. low.0 is the record as we were talking about, bond markets around the world seeing bid after bid. i thought it would be nice to have a quick look where we are internally. here, it looks like several stocks higher, but this is the extent of stocks that are higher. mining, that is on gold prices rising. cloroxe bit ironic that is higher on a day when coronavirus spreading is of urgency to the international capital markets. of course, it is gold that is keeping toronto markets from the worst of the losses we have seen in other places. gold and gold stocks moving higher. in terms of supply chain risk, look no further than the chipmakers. we are seeing stocks traded lower.
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some of the specific names, nvidia, at one point down more than 7% on this day alone. we saw weakness last week and it continues today. this will be the process as thestors sort through sector by sector, company by company damage here. nobody better to talk to about that than with abigail doolittle. we saw what happened in asia and europe, so we could have expected this. how it feels to you, where we land. you have such experience watching days like this. your gut check on days like this? abigail: this could be just the beginning. in the middle of a three-day slide, because if you recall, there was also a pretty brutal selloff ride a. that was started by that weak market pmi. the question around this coronavirus is the impact, what
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will the impact be on the global economy? a week ago, if you can believe it, the s&p 500 had been up 5% on the year. now is you and body mentioned, down on the year. that is how quickly this entire scenario and what the coronavirus could mean for the corporate outlook meant. a week ago, investors were assuming that this was like sars, we knew what the impact would be. now this could be far worse than what we know. that canncertainty really impact the global economy. how i was describing the strike last week, this tells us not if the music is going to stop, but when. we are looking at the fang index, the mega-caps. they have believe it, been 40% above its 200-day moving average. that is how overextended this index was.
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but that was happening on a falling rsi. making new highs day after day on fallen momentum. when reality hit, it quickly, like we are seeing today. it would not be surprising to see this index rundown back to that 200-day moving average, which would be a brief bear market. vonnie: where when the buyers come from to send yields even lower, to records on the 10-year? are we talking retail investors -- has smart money placed its bets? don't think you'll see so much retail money go into the bond markets. typically they do through etf's. but that's a good point on bonds. the 10-year almost making its record low. fornically now confirmed 1%, suggesting we will see a record low, but the bond rally could keep going. that points to the idea that we have money coming out of these risk assets, as we do today, leading to find a home.
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one of the narrative is this year is there has been so much fed and central bank, it needs to find a home. it's been going to these risk assets. if investors are taking chips off the table relative to stocks, where does it go? the yen on pace for its best day in eight months. we could continue to see that dynamic. vonnie: trading right now at 1.1049. thanks to you, abigail doolittle. for more on the selloff and how it's affecting emerging markets, we are joined by bank of new york mellon's markets rather just wally aiken are -- lale akoner. which areas are looking at the selloff with the most reputation? of course, coronavirus is a human tragedy, and you are seeing in the markets fears of a global pandemic. fears that it will be a u-shaped
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are covering rather than v-shaped recovery. asia of central banks in are looking to cut rates. we are seeing it happen from china, obviously, malaysia, thailand, singapore, and bank of korea is expected to cut rates. vonnie: how serious could this get? if there is an event that causes another disturbance in the market, could we see something disorderly and maybe even a currency crisis? lale: the way it could trigger a is two ways. chinarst one would be, a financial stability problem that triggers a problem that is already in the financial system in china. then we could see a possible banking weakness coming from
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china, emanating to global markets. the second one would be, obviously, global recovery shock that will come again, m&a through markets as well. there is a sense that this is the second hit on pro-globalization thinking, and those that had been reconsidering their supply chains will have even more reason to do so. at what point does that not become conjecture and feel, -- fear, but something that you can invest in? not executor how you can do it, but becoming a theory. some companies taking production away from china, which we have seen in trade wars before. now we are also seeing production being taken away from southeast asia. an of the countries that is
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obvious winner in this situation is mexico. yes, there are problems in the usmca deal, but mexico is insulated from coronavirus worries, the u.s. china trade war. mexico being first, thailand is its country to new investments, new business coming from china and hong kong, and again, indonesia is the de-regulating for firms coming away from china into its own country. amanda: we are seeing some updates on the draghi effect on u.s. growth. bedman sachs saying it could 0.8% on gdp. does that have any impact on your thinking of the u.s. dollar, e.m.? is the u.s. dollar now a safe haven and will trade for other reasons? we think the u.s. dollar will be stable, finishing the year stable with a softening bias.
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to your point, it is trading as a safe haven trade, and that is putting pressure on emerging-market currencies. vonnie: what about the direction of gold and oil? a 5% drop in oil. might that underpin some economic growth for consumers worldwide, if we see oil stay at these levels? oil, we do think will trade in a range bound fashion. obviously, countries who are be muchg, so they will more vulnerable to a oil price decline, such as russia. tradinge for 2020, oil in a range bound fashion. amanda: we will leave it there. we appreciate your time, lale akoner. quick check on the markets.
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we have been watching steep declines, off but close to the lows of the session. we saw the dow down 1000 points year, but we have continued moves lower. markets like toronto, which has materials like gold are a little bit higher. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. finance ministers and central bank governors from the world's largest economies met this past week and in saudi arabia, the first g20 meeting of the year. financial and global leaders are realizing the coronavirus is not just a short-term threat. stress tests with china,
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stress test for the world, stress test for supply chains. hopefully we come a stronger with the knowledge the will have gained with how to do with this pandemic and how we think about it economically. but it is an unknown unknown at the moment. andll the entering january february, everyone looking at transportation and tourism. definitely, those areas will be hit hard. >> there will be an impact, for sure. an impact on growth in europe, the rest of the world. now there is a clear need for a day by day monitoring. >> the alternative scenario, of course, is that it stays there longer and spreads out to other countries. just by creating a slowdown in china, that will have a worldwide impact. but then it may also create disruptions in the global value chain, which is already
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happening. >> they definitely underpriced the downside risk. at the moment they look at this as a tense story, sharp incline, sharp v-shaped recovery, and we are done. that will not be the case. amanda: tom orlik is with us now. one of the things that occurred to me, the importance of these meetings, when we need coordinated global responses. do you think we are there yet? there was a conversation about what china needs to do. was there a conversation about what needs to be done globally to coordinate these economies? tom: not quite cornered global response time yet. one of the ministers mentioned in the clip you played, we are at a concern and daily monitoring moment. the question i have, though, if we throw this forward three t gos, and things don'
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forward as we had hoped, more outbreaks in china, run the world, the question i would ask is, is there the will and the space to have a global policy response? who is around the table in the g20? we have the u.s. and china. they don't appear to be in a good place to cooperate, having coming out of a damaging trade war. let's think about policy space. china has some policy space which is good, they are the epicenter of the outbreak. the u.s. has a little bit of policy space. europe, japan, not really any space to work with. , ifconcern i would have this outbreak proves to be hard to contain, we get more cases outside of china and spreading, is there the will power around the g20 table to frame that coordinated response? vonnie: can you contain gdp growth effects? can china contain whatever
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damage to this one particular region? tom: i think the answer that money is a definite no. china is now a very substantial player in the global economy. even if they run an aggressive expect a veryould marked slowdown in chinese demand in the first quarter, and perhaps equally damaging, as china's factory sector stalls, we will see supply chains snarling up around the world as well. we are certainly looking at an impact in china, rippling around asia, around the world in the first quarter. -- and it ision not one that economist can answer -- is how quickly will this on brick come under control -- outbreak come under control? if that happens in imminent future, a v-shaped rebound with a strong q2 are possible.
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if we are pushing into march, china is still under lockdown, more outbreaks in korea, italy, and elsewhere, i think that v-shaped recovery comes into question as well. vonnie: thank you for all of your work, tom orlik. coming up, investors grimly to break down the impact of the coronavirus on global supply chains as the sum of in equities deepens. more on that ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. breaking news now. the u.s. consulate in the lawn has said it will suspend services there, consular services, until march 2. italy says is it is in a state of national emergency because of the coronavirus outbreak, including a clustering not far from the business region in
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milan. time for the bloomberg business flash. sanofi will combine its pharmaceutical ingredient production sites into a new company. a drugmaker will consider the business for a possible ipo. if there is a public listing, they look retained about -- they will retain about a 30% stake. gilead sciences is higher today. the world health organization says the company's experiment on drug may be the best get to find a cure for the coronavirus. the content has been rushed into a clinical trial in china. results could be available from that in weeks. that is your business flash update. vonnie: fears of the spreading coronavirus spread that sending the s&p 500 plunging by the most since august of last year. investors concerned about the impact on the global supply chains. our senior correspondent writing
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in bloomberg businessweek this. the carnage will be indiscriminate, laying down apple and mom and pops in return. kyle joins us now from princeton, new jersey. you make a great point. this selloff today started last week when apple warned about it supply chains. >> apple was the big one. in recent weeks, we have seen 40% of s&p 500 companies mentioned coronavirus. it is on their radar. i think we will see more on that in the next couple of weeks. the truth is, the modern supply chain is terrible at managing something like this. it has kind of been engineered to be pretty bad at this kind of situation. i expect to see a more protracted fallout going forward. amanda: we saw that front and 's earnings,ersk
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that it will be hitting them. just in time delivery system is calibrated for no delays. people don't keep inventory, they need to get things pretty quickly. here in a buffer zone this is resolved, can we measure in weeks or days before this becomes a bigger crisis? kyle: there will be a bit of a see thed then you will longer tail of the fallout on this from companies you might not have expected. manufacturing is the first in mind right now but it will go from there. what is also interesting to note, it is not just lean manufacturing, but so many companies have been working for liquid or elastic manufacturing, the ability to turn up reduction down quickly, and to do that, he had to tight with your suppliers. tose companies tend
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source things from the same place, and if they are in the wrong place, you have a problem. vonnie: the test case for this elastic supply chain, if you like, is walmart. walmart is good at scaling up or down as necessary. what has walmart been saying and doing? it as ity are taking comes, trying to obviously stay ahead of it, probably trying to work on some redundancy. what is interesting, after things have settled down, how many companies will treat this as sort of a fat margin risk, black swan event, and not really retool or reprice their risk, in which companies will. in this case, a health crisis. but with climate change and extreme weather events, this kind of thing might be quite a bit more common. i think companies will do a lot more to revalue redundant supply chains, reprice the risks on the super efficient, super direct
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supply chains. amanda: which may have already been happening because of protectionism, tariffs, shifting thinking about where you want to place your supply. what are you wanting to know that is a trend, that things will be coming closer to home? kyle: you will see interesting things from the top of the market and the bottom. large firms, obviously, have the resources and the business volumes to have redundancy baked in. you will see smaller companies be more agile. amanda: kyle stock, thank you so much for that. from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: harvey weinstein's legal team is vowing to appeal his conviction. a jury in new york convicted the former movie mogul of rape and
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sexual assault. his attorneys say he is disappointed with the verdict, but "mentally tough." in germany, police say a man deliberately rammed his car into a crowd injuring 30 people, including children. the driver was arrested and is being investigated on suspicion of attempted homicide. it happened 175 miles southwest of berlin. president trump and his wife visited the taj mahal. the president called the 17th century white mausoleum truly incredible. liam -- marble mars mazza liam "truly incredible."


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