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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 27, 2020 6:00am-7:01am EDT

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morning, what has happened out here is the wind of change, first manhattan and now louisiana, new orleans. nationwide, doctors are desperate for ventilators. and puts house stalls the manufacturer for more out to bid. stocks are a bid. a new bull market, but can you have a bull market with a vix of 65? senator sanders gets his fondest wish. we consider the prime minister of this -- permanence of this income replacement. in this hour, catherine mann of citigroup. from new york and london, this is bloomberg "surveillance," from all, an exhausting week. interestingreally and the politics of europe and washington, and titanic market
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action, a really important interview coming up. seth carpenter will join jon ferro and me on bloomberg radio on the negative interest rates in the u.s. it is about this pandemic. what do you see in london? what is new with prime minister johnson and how he treats this viral crisis? francine: first of all, it is friday. a lot of people will be happy it is friday. focus on the markets and the numbers and try not to be overtaken. two fed presidents coming onto bloomberg tv later with michael mckee, and also catherine mccain -- catherine mann. london is similar to new york. i was taken aback by the jobless claims yesterday. that number may have been much bigger.
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you are looking at negative interest rates, but if you look at the human tragedy unfolding in italy, they talk about a humanitarian crisis. in london and new york, the numbers keep going up. we will see what impact this has. tom: across bloomberg, a great focus on the louisiana. ofwill bring you mr. bostic atlanta and mr. kaplan of dallas, michael mckee with a focus on new orleans and the louisiana. here is viviana hurtado. viviana: a major change in tone overnight between the u.s. and china. donald trump and xi jinping vowing to cooperate in the fight against the coronavirus after weeks of rising tensions. president trump tweeted -- we are working closely together. now to the statistics. to u.s.has has served
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has surpassed china for the most thanavirus cases, more 82,000. we go to capitol hill where it is up to nancy pelosi and the house of representatives. the house predicts lawmakers will move swiftly to give final approval to the $2 trillion rescue plan, pelosi telling bloomberg afterwards the house will consider additional steps to help the economy. the next step will include more aid to the states. european union later's desk leaders have -- leaders have failed to agree on rescue measures. e.u. finance chiefs will come back with proposals. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. check do a quick data before we get to dr. mann. dollar stronger, a little bit of a churn with equities pulling back. the vix at 65, i find it original that we can call a new bull market with a vix at 65. i have never seen that. francine: i like the way you put that. futuresook at s&p 500 -- s&p 500, futures are retreating. the underlying index is more than 6%. the u.s. has overtaken china for the most cases worldwide fueled by a huge jump in new york. of our greatne
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international economists out of brandeis, and public service to the world as cheese economist -- chief economist for oecd. now she is at citigroup running their entire economic platform and she has been definitive on the dynamics and nuances we have seen through this pandemic. we are thrilled catherine mann can join us from the clear air of new hampshire. there is a national impact. how do you treat the focus on new york, may be the new focus on atlanta, and certainly louisiana, how do you take that nationally in our economics and in our society? catherine: there is the tragedies within each one of those states and the families and people involved, and the people working to try to reduce the death rate and the case rate.
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first, that is the thing that on the ground matters the most. and the states that are not as affected, they look at this and it matters for levels of confidence for governors and mayors in those states. they wonder, are we next, and what should we be doing to ensure that when it comes here the incidences will be lower and we will be able to treat people? there is a confidence factor and expectation factor that is important, even in those parts of the country that do not have the same level of intensity. whethery, regardless of they are on the front lines or not, they are on edge. that is why i think we can see vix so elevated. there is an expectation that the fiscal package and the federal
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reserve complementarity will make a difference for the smaller businesses, 50% of the economy that does not issue bonds or stock. 50% of the economy is really crucial. it was elements of that that were sticking points between the house and senate earlier on, and the fact that they reached an agreement is the critical ingredient to getting that bounce for the stock market. mann, yoursor leadership, citigroup has talked so much about populism buttressing up against more traditional politics or traditional economics. is the new populism and impediment to assisting us through this medical crisis? catherine: some of the surveys that have been taken over the
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last several months have asked questions about people's political leanings and then asked them questions about what did they think about the virus, are they concerned and so forth about the virus? some time ago in the initial phases, there was quite a gap between the sense of urgency and concern about the virus, between political wings, at the average person level. those surveys found there is a coming together on both sides at -- local level, between everybody is concerned now. you cannot identify people by their politics to their level of concern, so it brings everybody together, heightened level of concern. francine: can i go back to the fiscal packages? there seems to be a widening gap
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between what the europe and u.s. are doing. europe seems to be more focused like the u.k. on giving money back to helping firms and keeping jobs and the u.s. is on cash handouts to households. what works best? catherine: the starting point for the two systems is different , and the social safety net in that willmuch better support people. in the u.s., it is necessary to be supportive of people and firms. we look at the package, there is $300 billion directed towards noncorporate types of firms, ones that are credit oriented, ones that have very little, sobe one month cash buffer, to keep those firms going is
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havecal because they also a workforce. we need to have them so the $300 billion in the fiscal package is designed to do that. there is an additional package for direct lending. it is not that we are not taking account of those 50%. i wish there was more. i wish there was a better strategy to get money to the small business and their workers, because i'm concerned that the timing, that this will not come in time. those firms have at most a one month cash buffer. as awere required to close part of achieving social distancing in the cities, so we have run through that cash buffer. if you did not know that you would be able to go to your bank and get an extension of credit,
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to have forbearance of your rent, if you did not know that you would have closed your doors. that is a big concern and we have seen the consequences about in the jobless claims. it is important to move fast on this for the 50% of the economy that does not have a corporate label on it. the part of europe i am worried lack of coordination in europe is what i worry about. we will: do you think see more coordination? are we ever going to see the corona bonds? catherine: there has always been a search for finding a strategy to achieve a coordinated strategy, a supranational bond within europe. i thought before the coronavirus hit strategy would be to issue green bonds to support investments in climate change, and that would be an avenue
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through which we might get bond issuance in europe. i think it is really important for europe to have a coordinated strategy, whether it is the national governments agreeing strategyely to a individually and collectively. they have got to have the language that is important in europe to have a collective strategy. that language has to be part of what we are talking about. they cannot continue to be squabbling. of europe for squabbling is a disastrous recession. citiine: catherine mann, global chief economist, stays with us for at least 20 more minutes. later today, two exclusive fed presidents. our michael mckee in conversation with the dallas fed and the atlanta fed
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president. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york, from our homes. catherine mann of citi, we were talking about the fiscal packages and how they differed from the europe -- from europe in the u.s. recovery for the second half of the year, are such predictions too optimistic? catherine: i do think the trajectories and profiles of the economic part of this will be different. the prospects for the u.s. as there will be a deeper downturn
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in the second quarter, maybe into the late second quarter. the deeper you go, the faster you come out. i don't want to call it av or even a recovery -- i don't want v call it a ve or even a -- or even a recovery because there will be negative growth for the whole year, but the trajectory looks better in 2021. in does on the european side, the debt is not as grave but we do not see as much as an improvement. has a very serious recession. --doesn't have a trajectory going forward into 2021, and you are a business and do not see prospects for growth, the negative numbers are huge, of course you are not going to hire
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anybody and take under investments. the fact that there is not enough fiscal coordination in europe now means they do not have any rebound this half of the year. even if you have a negative this whole year but you are rebounding, that trajectory is positive, that is supportive of business confidence, of individuals feeling like, i can get a job. that is a critical agreement --ng into the second ingredient going into the second half of this year, trajectory matters. tom: dr. mann, thank you so much. to joine mann scheduled bloomberg "surveillance" radio this morning as well. listen to us on radio nationwide , sirius xm, channel 119.
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on the terminal, consider tv , not only on what we are doing on television, but a compendium of our best conversations during this crisis. we have much more to come with futures a little weak, vix out at 65. new negative rates in america. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ good morning, good
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afternoon, good evening. this is bloomberg "surveillance." yesterday we had a great conversation with small business lobbies in the u.s. and today we will do the same with u.k. they announced a stimulus package to pay self-employed workers cash grants as much as 2500 pounds a month. they make up 15% of the workforce. cherry, ofed by mike the federation of small businesses. it seems to be one of the most generous packages in europe and the u.s. do you worry people do not know how to access these grants, or is the infrastructure working? mike: it is a very good package the chancellor has come up with, probably better than we anticipated.
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there will be small businesses that fall outside of what he has announced, but clearly the infrastructure has yet to be built and this is one of the problems with the announcement. we understand the infrastructure is on from what he announced last week, for employees. there is individuals who have ,very ability to access this unfortunately it will not be until the beginning of june. in the interim, only the state benefit system can provide -- help with immediate cash problems. companies,ow many small companies are you expecting to go under despite the best efforts from the chancellor? mike: if you have got small businesses. able to continue to work, and that
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was one of the benefits of this announcement, they can continue to work, so hopefully when we come out of this, we will have more businesses that will survive the period before we enable the economy to kick off with a better balance than it would have done, so to speak. tom: mike cherry, we are thrilled to have you with us. i look at birmingham burton on trent and i believe it is the william mason timber company. let's go to the micro. what does the wh mason company crisis? the what is that to do list going forward? customers areour shut because their customers were forced to shut, so we have some immediate challenges as
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more businesses across the u.k. in hospitality and retail and leisure industries have been closed. we will obviously have to make sure we can get through this period, but we understand the problems. we are working closely with the banks and others to try to make sure that whatever is available for small businesses generally, if it is there, we may have to access that. that is something we are working through. tom: mike cherry, federation of the small business across the united kingdom with many of the same challenges as we see in the united states. we have much to look at today. michael mckee's conversations and bostic of atlanta kaplan of dallas, critically important as we see the
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expansion of the virus in new orleans off of mardi gras. seth carpenter scheduled to join on negative interest rates in the united states. this is a huge deal to global wall street. we do this with a background of lower futures and the vix still sustained at 65. interestingly, a fractional he stronger dollar today as well. we have much more coming up. please stay with us. adair lord turner will join us again as we look at the fiscal work of this crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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no matter what music you like, stream it now on pandora with xfinity. and don't forget to catch "trolls world tour". let's party people! ♪ one more time ♪ it is bloomberg "surveillance," francine lacqua
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in london, tom keene new york. one thing we have seen on a friday is the popularity of pets in america, the animal shelters across america are empty right now as people are looking for the comfort of well mannered beasts across america. francine: i only have one question -- why is your dog better behaved than my kids? he does not even bark. tom: it provides a lot of comfort, and the vet bill has been something. we say good morning to all the vets at the shelters who provide comfort to cats and dogs. as we spoke with steven riley on the dynamics of infectious disease, it is important to speak to someone steeled in the operational process of our
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hospitals. mr. del rio joins us from emory college where he has been the leader at grady memorial hospital for years. it is such a joy to have you with us from atlanta. we will speak to raphael bostic later. how is atlanta preparing for what seems to be an expanding crisis? carlos: we are doing several things. in our hospitals and daily operations, how do we expand the capacity? how do we increase icu beds and get the supplies, personal protective equipment, laboratory tests, ventilators? it is literally preparing for war, getting everything ready for the onslaught. in and thee coming number is increasing. we are having to cope with
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preparing as you battle, as you are in the frontlines doing these things, you are trying to prepare. that is the most challenging part. on therlos del rio, cover of "the new york times" is the death of a healthy 35 or 40-year-old nurse in new york city. we are having a debate over the process of ventilators. explain the critical importance orventilators in an icu, within the general hospital, what does a ventilator mean to the doctors and nurses begging for them? carlos: when you have someone critically ill with pneumonia, as the lungs get filled with inflammatory cells, the space where the oxygen goes into the blood is filled with inflammation, inflammatory cells, with infection, and
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oxygen is unable to get inside the blood so the oxygen count goes down. when our body senses the lack of oxygen you get shortness of breath. you can increase the percentage of oxygen you get somebody, you are at 100% oxygen and they are still not getting enough, so you have to put a tube down the windpipe and hawk into a machine that will give them more -- hook into a machine that will give them more oxygen and push pressure into the air that goes into the lungs to get the oxygen into the blood. it is something you use when we have someone with sapir -- in oxygenoxia, a drop and acute respiratory distress system. it is to get them through that
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event until their lungs heal and you can get them off the ventilator. the governor of new york said something i think is important. tom: please. carlos: it is only about 3% of the people that have coronavirus infections that end up in the icu, so it is a minority, but given the number of infections it is a large number. , with yourl rio esteemed career in mexico and emory university in atlanta, what would be your counsel to dr. fauci to explain to a somewhat suggest antiscience white house, that right now science matters? what is the best practice for the gentleman from holy cross? carlos: i have known dr. fauci for many years and there is nobody better than him to do this. he has been advisor to eight
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presidents through many crisis, from aids to zika and in between. he really is expert and a master in doing that. i don't think anyone can speak truth to power like he has, and he has done that. he has contradicted and gone against the president on the podium, so i have respect for him. he is a straight talker, a straight shooter, a listener, and that is what he continues to do. nobody is better than tony to do that. let's answertor, simple and difficult questions. what clinical trials are working , when will we have a vaccine, and are there drugs that will work in coming months to fight this? 157os: there were over registered clinical trials. we do not know what is working. that is why you do clinical
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trials. when will we know? i would suspect in the next four to six months. it will take a while. francine: thank you so much, dr. carlos del rio, assessor of medicine at emory school of medicine and executives associate -- executive associate dean. always great to speak to the experts to figure out the number of infection and how it will pan out. later today, not one but two fed presidents, two exclusive conversations michael mckee will lead with the dallas fed president and the atlanta fed president. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance," from new york and london. see itual friday, and we from new york, truly the epicenter overnight with china like statistics we saw two and three weeks ago. -- we sayg headline good morning to johns hopkins university and their wonderful ability to gather statistics of the veryis, saying difficult day with a large number of deaths. we have seen that on those some semi-logs that -- read, adair turner can
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with an esteemed career. we are thrilled lord turner could join us to synthesize everything we are living together in a march. what is on the to do list for the prime minister? what is the first order of business? adair: the big focus now in the u.k. is in the health service, ramping up as rapidly as possible the ability to deal with the serious cases. we know that for many people, young, fit people who get this coronavirus, it is like a nasty of olderfor a minority and vulnerable people, it can be fatal, and there is a crucial intermediate category where does not need to be fatal as long as we have enough ventilators and equipment. most of our systems are ill-equipped and we are trying to ramp that up.
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there is a set of economic measures the chancellor put forward that are appropriate, but the big focus is ramping up the capacity of the national health service to deal with the serious cases, and doing that as rapidly as we can. greetou and in francine in davos every year. how do we get china and the united states -- how does president trump in his interpretation of china, how do we get president trump and president xi on the same page? adair: they seem to have had a good call yesterday and trump has said he respects him. at other times president trump says we cannot trust the chinese numbers, or describes it as a chinese virus, and that does not help. hopefully at the level of technical connections, the
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expert connections, i'm sure there is as much as possible exchange of information because the chinese have gone through this ahead of us. they have information about how it spreads, how it can be contained. the chinese manufacturing system has an extraordinary capacity to ramp up quickly and is beginning to provide testing kits and ventilators to key countries across the rest of the world and has got to maximize that. crucially -- and this will be going on is the scientific community naturally works on a global cooperative basis -- there will be maximum cooperation to work out how rapidly we can develop a vaccine response. there are many layer's of the required coordinations, and i hope there is indeed, and i'm sure there will be between the american and chinese governments sensible cooperation going on. fiscal packages we
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saw in the u.s. are quite different from what we saw in the u.k. handoutss better, cash to households or support for businesses? adair: the crucial thing is support for employees who are being laid off and the self-employed. the big new package yesterday that came out from the chancellor was helpful, the self-employed supplementing the package last week of employees placed on leave of absence. i think that is a more effective form of focus than simply equal payments to every citizen, because let's be clear, many citizens do not need cash payments. many people are still continuing to receive their salary, are unable to spend it because they cannot go to the public, go to a
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restaurant, and will accumulate cash balances. benefit oft a great sending that sort of person an extra amount of money. the crucial thing is to target it on the people whose income is both the by that, employees of the restaurant chains, the pub chains who have been laid off, and we have a scheme of that in the u.k., and really a generous package yesterday extended to the self-employed. i think the targeted support for the people whose income is being directly hit because of physical constraints is in this particular environment, a better technique than simply saying, here is $3000 for every single citizen. u.k.ine: do you think the and early action between treasury and the bank of england is leading the way on the right
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way to tackle this health crisis without letting it turn into a more financial crisis? adair: the u.k. has taken a set of good measures, has come in three or four waves with central bank liquidity support for the banking system. we have seen that across the world from all of the central banks. then came loan guarantee systems to allow the banks to keep lending to threatened businesses. fiscal packagee supporting workers who are in danger of being laid off, and now the self-employed. what we have done so far in the u.k. is a good set of packages on the demand side. we need to switch threw two how do we keep some sectors of the economy going? can you keep construction going? can you create tight protocols so they can operate in a safe
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action -- fashion? how many factories can keep going? after the initial focus, which was the central banks, a lot of the action has to be on the physical side because we cannot stimulate the global economy by reducing interest rates when they are at zero, so the crucial thing which will keep the global economy going is these very big fiscal stimuli we are seeing in the u.s. we will see very big fiscal stimuli. that is absolutely right. it raises questions about how does that get paid for in the long term? does it raise public debt? these stimuli being offset by ,entral quantitative easing which means temporarily central banks are providing the money for this fiscal stimulus. i think that is the appropriate
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set of actions. across the world in terms of keeping demand going, we have seen a merge over the last couple of weeks, the sort of packages we need to see. within governments, the focus will go back to the health service itself, the supply side of the economy, how do we keep as much of that going as possible? francine: he is adair turner. polman,speak to paul former unilever chairman. this is bloomberg. ♪
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"surveillance," as we try -- this is blue "surveillance, -- bloomberg "surveillance." i am thrilled to be joined by paul polman, former chairman of unilever and representative from imagine. i always enjoy our conversations.
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this one will focus on what you see is a lack of coordination from the g20. why do we not see more decisive together action from our leaders? paul: we have started to discover that we have a global pandemic that cannot be solved with each country individually. we have seen with the outbreak of china spreading to the world, italy closing its borders, and now we see it rapidly spreading to the u.s. and other parts of the world, notably emerging markets which are less than -- prepared. global governance is difficult and you see how long it took to bring the g7 and g20 leaders together. even when they are together, you got agreements that are not truly reflecting the seriousness of the situation. business is a little bit ahead, probably able to react faster to
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which someing crisis observe, but we need everybody to solve it. this is a whole of government, whole of society issue that cannot be solved by any individual organization alone. francine: how can private companies play a role, and who is there to figure out what role they can play? we see companies trying to repurpose their supply chains to do hand sanitizers and ventilators, but who is the sureizing body to make supplies go where they need? paul: in terms of the plans they need to put in place, first and foremost we need to bring this pandemic under control and ensuring that happens under dutch across the world. -- happens across the world.
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better networka than governments do and are able to react faster. we see that happening in terms productcial support, support, loans to the value chain, and other activities happening. what we have organized at a global level now is first of all a developed economic forum, a body where we get together. we bring the companies together in partnership to align ourselves with medical supply or sanitation products, other things to keep the supply chain open. we have the international chambers of commerce, 45 million companies part of that working actively with the g20 to ensure that we keep the borders open.
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54 countries have export restrictions on medical supplies that is not helping us in the situation we find ourselves in. francine:54 countries what do ye biggest barrier? is it a lack of resources or the lack of multilateralism? that means i am a maker of supplies but cannot get them over the border. paul: the biggest barrier is an understanding of the severity of the crisis, and what we all need to do together, and the second one is our global political system where our global governance is not up to the standard of what we need to deal with these crises, and where we are dealing with nationalism and shrinking back local borders and trade barriers that are getting in the way of this rapid, coordinated response. we are discovering we are citizens of planet earth and the covid-19 crisis does not know any borders, nor does it no distinctions between our
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wonderful human beings on this planet. we have enough funds and i think we have the means to deal with this. tremendous efforts having to do with this crisis, but first and foremost we need the leadership to step up, to embrace this as a common issue and others a political opportunity. francine: do you think that leadership needs to be at the g20 level or is there another organization that can take the reins? paul: the g20 has finally come together with covid with the icc. we have to be sure the statement is put into practice. we have an enormous need to work together ensuring the flow of medical supplies. we need to see if these trade barriers, the 54 countries, are coming down. the state was weak on the emerging markets.
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countries like brazil and africa, the preparedness at the political level is different degrees and we need to see that it is not just a national problem. we need to continue to support especially the smaller businesses, and the global economy, the multinationals and bigger organizations can help. 20% of thess than global workforce even in europe and the u.s. we need to be sure smaller businesses are protected. francine: paul polman, thank you so much as always for giving us a little bit of your time, chair of the international chamber of commerce. two fed presidents in conversation with bloomberg. ♪
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alix: false bottom or real hope? equities give up gains after a monster rally. stimulus speed. the house set to pass a $2 trillion rescue package today. just how quickly it can get into the economy keeper investor. and global leaders and central banks take drastic action to contain the virus fallout. our exclusive interviews with dallas fed president robert kaplan and atlanta fed president raphael bostic. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this friday, march 27. i'm alix steel. happy friday, everybody. that mean something very different to us all now that we are working from home. we are not able to sustain the rally we had yesterday. the dow went to an -- the dow went into a bull market. asia was able to rally, but new york gave up those gains.
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it doesn't feel at they are a


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