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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 2, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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francine: the death toll of coronavirus -- [indiscernible] american officials say china -- beijing denies the claims saying it acted in a transparent manner. we will be speaking to the chief executive in an exclusive conversation and 9:30 a.m. london time. good morning.
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this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua in london. markets, thet the volatility swings we saw is moving to currencies. european stocks have been fluctuating, they are flat right now. they were higher a couple minutes ago. oil is higher today after china unveiled plans to boost its reserves. if you look at brent, they were 12% higher, now they are 9% higher. treasuries slipping along with the dollar. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. >> china says it acted in an open and transparent manner when
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it comes to the coronavirus, after u.s. intelligence reports said beijing concealed the extent of the outbreak. two sources say chinese numbers were fake, that includes underreporting total cases and deaths. the pentagon is looking to provide as many as 100,000 military body bags for potential civilian use, as the u.s. warns deaths could soar in the coming weeks. to a dealon is close with a contractor. it will send it to fema. now to eu nations, they are setting out competing visions for how to deal with the consequences of the pandemic. governments are at odds over how to cushion the economy. one key disagreement is the idea germanyalizing debt, and the netherlands are pushing back.
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in the u.k. almost one million people have claimed universal credit welfare payments in the from 100,000., up the surge coincides with when the u.k. imposed dramatic restrictions on the public. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. toncine: let's go straight the impact of the coronavirus on the markets. joining me now is tony gibb, product manager, fil investment management. great to have you on the program. when you look at the number infected and the number of deaths, are you hopeful of stabilizing, or is it early? , and i think it is early there is a lot of volatility in
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the numbers. the data from the last few days from italy, spain, germany is encouraging. the rates of infection is deaths are also slowing. in terms of what the market is focusing on, the rate of change, there are positive signs. that is what the market is reacting to. we are seeing positive reaction today. dangerous is this away from europe? how much more can the economy do? facing a possible solvency crisis for some companies? tony: it is something we are focusing on at the moment. the fiscal stimulus that has been announced from the u.s. and europe and the u.k. and in asia
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is significant. it is absolutely required. we are facing a significant slowdown from a demand perspective, and that will have profound implications of companies, employment, particularly within the u.s. and the u.k. today. and the economy will have to be supported through this. from a european perspective, coordination is going to be is likely to more be required from a stimulus perspective. particularly in those areas most impacted, italy, spain. this does bring to the fore the question of eurobonds. are we goingrall to see a more coordinated response?
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are we going to see any significant movement or is it a breaking point for europe? is going to bet a testing time for europe. i do not think a breaking point. with all of these things, these crises can bring people together more, and hopefully that will be the case for europe. , thef the positive things cost of borrowing is limited. there will be profound long-term implications in terms of what happens, whether we see debt forgiveness or meaningful changes, and potentially something at the corporate level turning on its head the capital structure. considered,ot to be
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but the most important thing is getting the spread of the virus immediaterol, and economic implications which is significant. we saw last week the market apedsting to reflect a v-sh recovery. the market is now thinking that will probably not be the case. the implications are much more significant, and we will see at best a u-shaped recovery. with their markets in the lows we saw a couple weeks ago, but that remains to be seen. sharing enoughe resources to deal with the this crisis one
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where authorities try to stave off a financial crisis, a repeat of 2008, or are banks on a better footing? what will it morph into if resources and spent on testing and antibodies? koreaas we saw with south , the way this crisis was dealt with, the testing that was carried out in korea has a u.s.ive impact, and in the and europe is appreciating that and spending more on testing and that is extremely important. with 2008 isn interesting, but we have to appreciate this is a different 2001s where in 2008 and the crisis was created by a
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buildup of risk in certain areas of the markets and significant excesses in the technology sector in 2001, in the financial sector in 2008. what resulted from that after sharp change in market leadership, and those companies that caused the crisis with the worst performers. i think we will see something isferent where it potentially companies performing the best will lead coming out of it. they will continue to be the leaders. francine: what is the call for
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the markets you need to get right to make sure everything is right? tony: the most important thing to watch from a market perspective is the development of the coronavirus in the spread . longer-term there will be a number of economic indicators to markat, and the question whether it is inflationary were deflationary is important, given the amount of stimulus in the economy. the likelihood is this will be
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, and could lead to changes in market positions and market dynamics going forward. francine: thank you so much, tony gibb, product manager, fil investment management. coming up, an exclusive conversation with bill winters. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, science, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " let's get the bloomberg business flash. with bank of america
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chief, brian moynihan, he expects the u.s. economy to bounce back quickly. he says there are structural issues that need to be dealt with. >> there will be a deeper downdraft, but most economists believe on the other side is a reversion back to where the economy gets back to the same size next year that it was prior to this, which is a fast turnaround. bc is returning some board members who were angered by recent actions after pressure on lenders to cancel dividends. one director saying, quote, we should not be in the u.k. and there are no discussions to review the bank headquarters. the royal bank of scotland restructuring plan means cutting jobs, as many of its peers halt layoffs amid the chaos of the coronavirus pandemic.
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the team ongo of loan obligations, and the cuts were announced on a zoom call. germany and italy have extended lockdown measures until after easter. spain reported its deadliest day .ith 864 fatalities it comes as european leaders struggled to come up with a joint response to counter the of the pandemic. there was a wobble on the markets two days ago after trump said it will take a while to get the economy up and running, but the numbers in the u.s. is worrying. do you worry more about europe in terms of market impact and economy, or the u.s.? u.s. i think probably the
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it is the biggest economy in the world, and although the number of cases are larger than anywhere else, the response to the crisis has been slower and they have been slower implementing lockdowns. aile we are starting to see slowdown in new cases in italy and spain, potentially the u.k., in the u.s. we are a few weeks behind that. the situation will get a lot worse before it gets better in the u.s., and implications are significant. in joblessge pickup claims last week, we will see the same if not more again. that has a significant impact on the global economy. francine: at the same time, they
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have more firepower. fiscally.uld do more tony: i think that is right, and so far they have done. they are able to do it anymore coordinated way than in europe. that is all set. seen2 trillion we have will have a significant impact andffsetting the negatives economic effects of the virus. francine: what do you do with the emerging markets now? mixed bag.nk it is a there are different areas and emerging markets for different points in terms of their
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response in this stage in the coronavirus phases. china is particularly interesting given they were the first who entered this crisis and they reacted in a significant way in terms of closing down wuhan and other areas. we are starting to see now a in terms ofery supply chains reopening, in terms of people returning to work. when we monitored the high-frequency data, it does seem to be things are returning. also returning, shops are reopening, people are returning to life. if that has been reflected in the stock market, the chinese , andt has outperformed emerging markets have outperformed through the last
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few weeks. other parts of the emerging markets are in different stages, africa in particular. allows us to see where europe and the u.s. might be in three weeks or six weeks in terms of recovery and returning to normal. when do you know life will return to normal? where do markets find a floor? bey: i think it is going to quite some time. we see situations where countries go back to work, .hen a pickup in cases hong kong and singapore, then lockdowns have to be re-up limited.
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it is very -- lockdowns have to be re-implilmented. there has been a pickup in cases. that is unfortunately going to be the situation going forward. it will be a case of people slowly going back to work and lockdownsy cases in having to be reinstated. in this uncertainty, do you buy gold or the dollar? tony: it is a good question. potential the dollar is not a safe haven that has been historically, particularly given the monetary policy reaction from the fed, responsethe fiscal from the government, which has been enormous.
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and also given the fact the u.s. is in an earlier stage than other areas of the market. potentially from here there could be dollar weakness rather than strength. gold has historically been a safe haven asset. what is interesting in this selloff a few weeks ago was driven largely by deleveraging. , it is a liquid asset has not performed that function as a safe haven asset in the last few week. francine: thank you so much, tony gibb, product manager, fil investment management. coming up, we speak to european economy commissioner. time.s that 9:40 u.k.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua in london. a lot going on in the market. we track it every 10 minutes on "bloomberg surveillance."
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u.s. equity futures are rising. oil surging after china unveiled plans to boost reserves. upnt is gaining 9%, earlier by as much as 12%. the world's biggest imports take advantage. treasuries slipping with the dollar. coming up, a great conversation with bill winters. that is coming up next. we will have a lot to talk about , we will talk about dividends and how he feels the governments are doing with the pandemic. much more on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ [ "one more time" by daft punk ]
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and don't forget to catch "trolls world tour". let's party people! ♪ one more time francine: economics, finance, allah text. -- politics. this is bloomberg surveillance. the biggest bank scraps their
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dividends after being pushed to free up more money for loans after the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. winters, the chief executive of standard chartered, joins me know. thank you for your time. standard chartered has announced a $1 billion financing package for companies involved in fighting the epidemic. how soon do you expect to make the first loan? bill: good morning francine, nice to be here. we are all trying to do whatever we can to help this fight in whatever way that we can peer the billion-dollar financing package for us is for the most part, the financing will go out to people we have on our books, clients of ours who are either retooling manufacturing facilities or reconfiguring some of their supply distribution chains to get these needed materials out, whether it is whatever.uipment or
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because they are existing clients, a group of them are existing clients, we are making the first loans. we will continue to wrap that up -- to wrap that up. -- to ramp that up. we are getting people coming to us, so existing clients and new clients as well. one smalls is contribution in the overall scheme of things to help fight this fight. francine: standard chartered's exposure to asia was seen as a volatility -- as a vulnerability. now that asia seems to be better than the u.s., is that a strength? bill: this is going through the globe, and clearly it has -- asia was hit hard early on. in the case of hong kong, our biggest single market was on the back of the period of civil unrest that had also hit hong kong hard. we certainly felt that in our
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business, but we saw the response was aggressive. i think the rest of the world has observed and learned from that. some of us took the lessons too hard and acted on that, and others did not and are paying the price now. asia is ready to rebound, but at as asian and particularly chinese manufacturing is coming strong, demand has fallen off a cliff in the west as the west runs through there. it continues to be a tough time in asia, because of the dramatic to remand -- dramatic demand dropped, but also people returning back to china, hong kong, singapore, etc., and localized blisters. but the asian health authorities in china, hong kong, and singapore have demonstrated what early and hard intervention can do in terms of slowing this disease spread.
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they are poised for a healthy recovery in the second half of the year. francine: when do you expect business to return to normal in hong kong? bill: it will be a while. hong kong is still under some pretty severe restrictions. hong kong is a trading hub. with a big chunk of the world under our own version of lockdown, it is going to be a while. gets its footing back, and we know that we are not at the peak yet in most of the western markets, we will probably well into the second quarter and i would expect the recovery to begin in earnest in the third quarter. and then accelerate toward the end of the year. francine: is there something western governments could learn from the response in certain asian countries? i don't know how you think our western governments are doing and what they could do better. bill: i think there will be books written, and a trillion
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hours spent in asking what we all could have done differently. what business is good have done differently, the things we should have been able to see or could have forecast, and obviously things governments could have done differently. i find it interesting to listen to the debate now that we in the west or in the u.k. or the u.s. could not have done what the chinese did because we don't have that kind of society. but we are doing what the chinese did. we're just doing it too late. we are depriving people of what would have been considered basic liberties, only weeks ago, because it is the right thing to do for society. i think this whole notion of certain things that are off limits -- it is off-limits to take someone who is ill and put them into a central quarantine location. with the benefit of highside, that is not a very conservative thought. there is probably a lot we can learn. of course, there are also plenty of the chinese who will learn as
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ofl in terms of the value brutal transparency at the earliest possible stage. francine: do you think the prices will -- the crisis will lead to a shift in the global economic center? does it exacerbated, or is it stemming from the crisis? bill: i think this one is going to be -- it is a very complex question. the center of economic gravity was moving to the east in any case because of growth, demographics, focus on manufacturing, etc. trendk that underlying will certainly extend. i think it is also clear that the west is certainly, starting with the u.s., will be less inclined to be completely dependent on nation supply chains. what we are seeing today, how difficult it is to get some medical goods when you need the
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most. because manufacturing is sitting in asia or china, where there is an earlier stage of the lockdown, so i think we will see shift.xorable it is a rebalancing, an evening out, of underlying activity. more westernming skewed, it is becoming more eastern balanced. i think we will see a flip back to a focus on western manufacturing of critical goods, and whether those critical goods are the current ben deming -- pandemic is medical, it is electronic and digital instruments and the like. we can expect to see a lot of refocus on rebuilding a manufacturing base for central goods and home markets. winters, like other banks, standard chartered's share price was hit the cancellation of the dividend. when would you hope to resume
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dividend payments? what needs to happen for you to go back to that? bill: the regulator, the bank of givend took the view, and the uncertainty around the crisis, in terms of financing requirements and the uncertainty around the losses that the banks will take, it is appropriate to be extraordinarily prudent, despite the fact that we are sitting with very strong capital ratios today and a very strong today, theatio regulators have taken the view that prudence should rule the day, and i understand that perfectly. when can we get back to something like a more normal capital type strategy? i think we will have to see the role of banks and helping the world recover from this tremendous shock has largely flown through. we can all speculate how long that is going to be. the abilityill see
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to return to normal by the end of this year, but the economic challenge will carry on for years. i don't think that means we wait for years before we can manage our capital that we have. i think we need to let the dust settle a little bit, understand what the demands are on balance sheets and understand what the cost of this crisis has been. i hope we get some clarity toward the end of this year or early next year, but given the way the pandemic is rolling out, i would hesitate to offer too much by way of forecast. francine: you did a lot of work with the regulators. does this crisis vindicate some of the things that the u.k. had put in place, in terms of bank lending? ofl: there are a lot underlying logic around the ring fencing when we made the recommendation around 2011, quite a while ago. part was to make sure that that
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domestic deposit taking function was protected, and i think that is very clear. but the primary protection for banks right now -- and i think it is across the board banks -- very strong capital positions with good liquidity. the structural change that has happened since the independent commission banking report -- we have not needed to draw on that because the capital strength of the banks is strong and i suspect will prove to be adequately strong through this. the prediction of the domestic depository was that the nondomestic retail banking business, the international corporate business, the international retail business, outside the u.k., was subject to a separate set of regulations and rules, and i think the actions of the tra has taken and is taking to make sure that both parts of the u.k. banking business are in
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good shape, strong and protected, taking different approaches, through different types of liquidity programs and corporate support, etc. but the fact that these things are separate, allowing regulators to deal with two separate types of business in the most appropriate way, i think it is working out quite well. francine: the bank of england for made a call to cuts retailers. is that something your bank is planning to do? bill: clearly, as we go through a year or months from now, if wething is paid to anybody, do not know that until we see how performance plays out. we will see what that is at the beginning of next year and we will take guidance from the pra. to the extent they clarify what the restrictions are in terms of material risk takers, we will
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comply with that. but it is not very clear from their statement what they intend. theexample, bonuses for performance year have already been paid. it is a very small number, a tiny number of people and vest,s that are due to that earlier in the year diverge awards. some of those awards will vest over the quarter of the year. are being payments said that they should not be made. we will get clarification from the bra on what is acceptable and what is not. once we are clear with the rules are, we will comply with them. maybe the more important to make iound remuneration is, and think you would hear the same from every other bank, it
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depends to be -- it tends to be completely responsible, the way that we pay our colleagues. first and foremost is to see what the performance is of the business, and second is to consider, as we always do, but we were very clear in our press statement around the dividend cessation and all that, very clear that we would not just look at the performance of standard chartered bank, but look at the condition for all of our stakeholders. our clients, the communities in which we operate. that is also guiding how we would allocate the resources of our bank to individuals. i think we have always intended to be responsible. we tend to be focused on responsibility to the broader stakeholder community, through this crisis that we are all going through together. francine: how difficult is it running the bank from your house in london, and how difficult is
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it to work with your top management? bill: for standard chartered it has always been a challenge, that we are so dispersed that wherever i am in the world, my colleagues are not with me. we get together from time to time, in a physical location, but that was maybe once a quarter or once every couple months, for a physical get together, and i we cannot do that. but we are all very used to having three or four or five locations popping up on a video screen and having our senior management team meetings that way, and now we're just carrying on. obviously when you get into the inability to bump into somebody in the hallway or to walk onto a trading floor and talk to some colleagues, you lose something. but we are finding new ways to get that back. the technology we all have at our disposal today is extremely useful for finding new ways to connect one-on-one or with very
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big groups. some of these experiments work, some don't, and we are getting by. francine: bill winters, thank you so much for your time today. he is the chief executive of standard chartered. stay with surveillance. says --on der leyen's coming up, our next guest. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." ursula von der leyen apologizes --the one of eyebrows break to the coronavirus response
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outbreak. she said it was inadequate and now she is planning resources to fund the italian layoffs. with more on what the commission can and cannot do, is paolo gentiloni. as always, thank you for giving us a bit of your is a schedule. when you look at projections for recession in italy and in europe, how bad will it be? what are the numbers you are looking at right now? morning.od nows very difficult to have a real forecast. we are working on scenarios. in aobviously we are lockdown. -- lockdown -- -- but less producing
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obviously this does not mean that after the lockdown we will , a rebound will be immediate. so the duration of the outbreak and the duration of the measures of lockdown that have been taken is crucial to understand the real dimension of negative growth that we will have before but i amace recession, sure in the second and last part of this year, we will have also a rebound, which could be very important. francine: talk to me about your current projections for public finances in italy once the virus has passed. i mean, we are talking about public debt possibly reaching 150% of gdp. does that seem reasonable? : in this moment, i think the first task for european thisr states is to face
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crisis, to fight to save human lives, and to spend money to avoid that. this crisis could have even more serious economic consequences. this is what all european member states are doing, and in aggregate, only in the second part of march, european member like 40 -- 430ng billion euros in expenditures, and 2.2 trillion euros in guarantees for liquidity. this intervention was made possible by the fact that the commission decided to suspend the implementation of our fiscal ands and european level, suspended also the traditional rules.of
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so we have this immediate intervention of the government. we have a very strong purchase program from the ecb, and we need now to build common tools of fiscal response, not only leaving them to member states, but it is now what is under among member states and the commission. francine: some officials are already talking about a form of bailout. italy once the pandemic has passed. do you think that will be necessary, talking about debt relief? you will start earlier than you have in the past. -- i thinkink it is this is completely out of the outlook that we have. i think we have clearly to draft -- on the ecbthe
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intervention. the ecb intervention was very useful to reduce risk of fragmentation among european the situationon of their debts. i think this creates no problems of this kind at the moment, in the future that we can foresee. so this is not the moment of this kind of risk, this is the tending to face the immediate challenges that we wee, and building so that are using common tools at e.u. level. francine: but at e.u. level, there seems to be a lack of trust and goodwill. why is it proving so difficult for member states to agree even on the basics of esm credit lines to support the virus hit countries, and what can you do to have a more cohesive
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response? paolo: indeed, we had a quick and strong reaction from -- federal institutions, first of all the ecb -- and we had the second among member states. but my understanding is that the awareness among member states is growing now, that this unprecedented crisis needs an unprecedented response, and that we will not have, after this winners andrope, losers. we can win or lose only together. i think that this awareness is growing, and i am rather confident that on next tuesday, in theisters of finance euro group will find an agreement. the agreement will be -- to say toolkit, not on a single measure , that minister of finance will
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theose to the decision of head of state and government, the european council. one of these tools could be the use of the esm, but obviously esm was born for a completely different mission, and in a completely different crisis from this one. and this is the reason why the on how it is ongoing works now, and the areitionality's it has now completely different that we are leaving now. francine: thank you so much, commissioner. paolo: but that is not the only issue on the table of the discussion. there are many other tools that we can use. francine: commissioner -- paolo: not only having a monetary response based on the intervention. francine: commissioner, thank
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you so much. too short a time. we will have to get you back on. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you
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francine: the death toll of coronavirus nears 50,000 as fatalities spike in spain and the u.k. in the u.s., the pentagon looks to provide as many as 100,000 body bags. american officials say china concealed the extent of its outbreak, but beijing denies the claims, saying it acted in an open and transparent manner. and as britain's biggest bank scrapped dividends in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, standard chartered executive bill winters tells me the u.s. and the u.k. acted too late on coronavirus. well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, "bloomberghis is surveillance." tom, oil is stabilizing. when you look at brent, because of the cheap price of oil, china has replenished the stop. -- the stock. that is a different dynamic than gold, tom. tom: it is a different dynamic than yesterday, but the dynamic today is the labor economy. a


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