tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg April 13, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
york, 6:00 in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to bloomberg markets. u.s. stocks are sinking today as investors gear up for the start of earnings season. the s&p 500 off 2%, on the heels of a shortened trading week that saw the biggest gains since the 1970's. the month-long price war over crude oil coming to a close. the world's top oil producers making an historic deal to cut output by nearly a tent. we spoke to an energy secretary about what it means for the united states. very sought after views from gramercy funds robert koenigsberger, along with mohamed el-erian. all about to come in the next 30 minutes. let's get a quick check on the markets.
the s&p is down 1.9%. the only sector higher are the retailers, but in the s&p, that includes netflix and amazon. crude oil up $.43 right now, 1.9%. the retailing index, up 1.6%. abigail doolittle is with us now for a deeper dive into the afternoon session. abigail: it is certainly a risk off tone with the across asset class check with stocks lower. a look at the major averages, the dow is down 2%, the s&p 500 close. interesting, the nasdaq is down just pointed percent after that big rally you were mentioning last week. the question is, is this healthy consolidation or the beginning of a swing back down to the sears lows -- this year's lows? the russell 2000 also down 3%.
that was the best performer last week. maybe suggesting consolidation, but it is all about earnings, uncertainty about what the virus will do to earnings. take a look at oil after the opec-plus deal output cuts of about 10%. oil is up 1.5%. the energy sector, one of the better sectors. those are the movers to the upside helping out. marathon, murphy. i was mentioning those with saws in the s&p 500. over the last couple of months, take a look at that big decline. to track, 35%. now up about 19%. -- pete to trough, 35%. o trough, 35%. range trading ahead as investors
look at what the true impact will be on the economy, and how long it will last. finally, some of the big winners last week or the big losers this week. some saying they did not like the rally last week because of the week competition -- weak composition. some are field goal that the auto and real estate sector could see a free fall in prices. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you for that. world'st week saw the top producers pull off an historic deal to cut output. president trump played a role in the deal, tweeting this today. having been involved in the negotiations, the number opec is looking to cut is 20 million barrels a day, not the 10 million being reported. the energy industry will be strong again, far faster than currently anticipated. thank you to all that worked with me on getting business back
to track, particularly russia and saudi arabia. earlier, kevin cirilli spoke to the energy secretary about the deal. a very important, historic deal, one of the largest ever struck by opec-plus members to reduce production across the world. the reason is important, with demand being what it is given the covid-19 pandemic shutting down world economies, it's important that we not overproduce oil at the moment. we are running into challenges as you will know. once you have produced it and pulled it out of the ground, you have two options, use it and store it. with the man being what it is not an option, so storing it is a premium. it's important that we slow production until this economy comes back. it's interesting when you mention covid-19, but when you juxtapose that with the saudi's and the russians, how precisely did this deal come about, how
long will this deal last for? bill: world leaders engaged directly, the president was involved with this conversation from the beginning and really drove home the final results that you see today. covid-19 present a challenge for all producers. saudi, russians, the united states, shale production are all impacted by the reduction in demand as a result of the pandemic. everyone has an interest in ensuring the energy industry comes back post pandemic. the way you do that is to make sure that the wells are not shut in permanently. you reduce production, moderate the production of oil, try to match it to demand the best you can. in america, that is done through free markets. in cartels like opec, that is done through elective action. independentny refineries are nervous about
going bankrupt, particularly given what is happening with covid, internationally, so what is the administration doing to ensure that once covid-19 restrictions are lifted, and given the demand flow what it is, that these refineries will not have to seek bankruptcy protection? dan: we have taken some executive steps, the president has given me a you authority to open up the strategic petroleum reserve. importantly, the president has also worked with congress to pass what we now know as the cares act. one of the most important provisions there is allowing the industry to deduct losses incurred this year against the last five years of profits. that provides an incredible amount of liquidity to these smaller players particularly and , again, shores of the financial situations, so that they can survive this downturn in demand. has talkedpresident
about going beyond the existing capacity, to look at more storage options. what are some of those options that your team is looking at, especially for those refineries not by the gulf states? dan: the law allows the department of energy to build up to one billion barrels of storage. we are currently around 700 million or so, the capacity of the strategic petroleum reserve. i'll be working with congress to perhaps expand the storage capacity. we will also look at commercial option to see what we may have available as well. kevin: working with congress, do that that portion may be tied into the next round of economic stimulus, or will that have to move in a separate congressional vehicle? dan: we will make the argument. it is something congress will consider, they have the ultimate decision on whether they want to pursue that, but i think we will make some strong arguments about
why the additional storage capacity is important to the country. u.s. energy was secretary dan brouillette speaking with kevin cirilli. let's get a check on first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: president trump says he has the power to open states, not governors. the president tweeted he would take input from governors, and a decision would be made soon. the coronavirus outbreak has stabilized across the u.s., according to the cdc. the director says the disease is expected to show declines in this country in the days ahead. he also says the u.s. will reopen slowly but did not give a timeline. some promising numbers from spain. the government reported the smallest number of new coronavirus infection since march 20. over the past way for hours, almost 3500 new cases detect it. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. governments and central banks have been taking unprecedented steps to bridge the global economy to the pandemic. investors have and closely to understand the impact, especially these days on emerging markets. to discuss their outlook and what coronavirus means for the space, robert koenigsberger of gramercy funds, founded 22 years ago. el-erian, senior
advisor to gramercy funds. welcome, gentlemen. robert, let me start with you. we have seen such location in recent weeks there that has amplified both the opportunities and the challenges when it comes to doing what you do. tell us how you view this dislocation, these series of dislocations, in regard to resident, what you have seen in the past? robert: thank you, good afternoon. thank you for having both of us on today. in order to understand the current dislocation that has occurred within emerging markets and also other markets -- i will stick to the one i know, emerging market -- is to understand why what has occurred, occurred, and what just happened, and put that in historical perspective. one, to make sure it is actual dislocation. to be able to compare and
contrast to previous dislocations we have seen in the markets the past 25 years. if it is really a dislocation, that means it should be driven by lower prices -- lower prices are driven by illiquidity, not financial issues. we have been talking to our clients about this perfect storm, this dislocation storm that was visible on the horizon. ,t starts about a decade ago when most of emerging market corporate credit, if we use that as a barometer, was really invented in hedge fund structures. after the financial crisis, investors said, we don't want this mismatch anymore. 90 days liquidity is far too liquid for the underlying liquidity of the emerging market debt. the redeemed those vehicles and moved to mutual funds, etf's. they made a promise of liquidity
just because the vehicle itself was liquid did not mean that the underlying portfolio was liquid. exasperated,er over 12 years now, emerging market corporate, the size of the market is five times larger than 2008. yet, we all know there are fewer banks today and a lot less balance sheet available, not only for market making, but proprietary market making. see less probably liquidity in emerging market debt from the market making perspective, than we did in 1997. debtthen, the largest investor was maybe only $3 billion. today, there are multiple vehicles with over $75 billion of assets. this was caused by an elastic supply, which was harder to detect.
now what we're seeing with outflows, and that is the key -- we did not know what the shock would be. in the month of march, we saw over $20 billion of those in hard currency. that is what broke the camel's back, why the dislocation has occurred thus far. we can speak later about how to compare that to previous dislocations. vonnie: muhammad, let me bring you in here. i know that you were both waiting for something to happen, always something on the horizon but the size and scope of this was maybe even bigger than you anticipated. at the same time, you cannot view it as a monolithic event. it is different for each emerging market. mohamed: that is absolutely right. we were concerned that the asset class was vulnerable to a shock. of course, we never imagined the
scope. and therefore, you also have a new set of risks and opportunities. risks are it is very difficult to make a general case for the asset class. certain countries have resilience, have been treated badly by the markets because of the technical factors that robert mentioned. others don't have the resilience , and they have a rough journey ahead of them. on the other side -- in that is where the opportunities come in -- understanding the difference from a bottom-up perspective, means that you can buy resilient names, either because they have their own resilience, or you can structure it that attractive prices. the opportunity is there for those who can separate the resilient ones from the ones that will not make this journey. , with the imfd
comes out and says there has been nearly 90 countries looking for assistance, and when we know there is such pain, what does that cause you to think of when it comes to investing in these countries? mohamed: it tells me that the sovereign's are behaving in the same way that a lot of american companies have been, which is raise cash, raise cash. cash is king if you are trying to navigate multiple hits to your income statement. let's see what a typical emerging market is going through. exports have collapsed because of what is happening with world trade. becausehas collapsed people are not traveling anymore. if you are a commodity exporter, prices have collapsed. they are doing what every company is doing, which is trying to raise cash buffers. for many of these countries, the only way to do that is to go to
.he imf even vonnie to the robert, you point clubs indoors and as being a big factor. everywhere from aruba to barbados. what if this happens through the winter, it people are reluctant to fly, if airlines are not putting out the lights? robert: you bring up an important issue, similar to what mohammed was talking about. underwriteneed to re- the world. the models and the state of nature we were looking at in january and february of 2020 should not change the state in may or june moving at the all clear. we are going through the process of figuring out who will be the winners, who will be the losers. this is not a homogeneous asset class. you identify one sector that could be under pressure, hotels,
airlines, etc.. we just cannot assume a name that we have known for many years, whether a sovereign or name, we has a strong cannot assume that it is still a strong name. we have to re-underwrite it. vonnie: what is your strongest conviction for a trade? highest quality versus the large dislocations? on the one end, we were really anchored in private credit. we thought you were getting expensive the paid for this exposure in the market. you are often getting uncorrelated assets, and you could structure credit around those assets to give you resilience, to the extent there was a pullback in the market. the other side of the barbell was waiting for dislocations that were occurring on and if
you consider chronic -- on an idiosyncratic basis. today, we are anchoring that barbell in dislocated credit, finding and identifying the subset of credit that is dislocated for illiquidity reasons, and it is cheaper for that reason, not because it is -repair. instead of lending for growth, you will be lending for survival. lending to companies that have good balance sheets, just liquidity issues. they can use the assets on the balance sheet to sustain themselves. , you mentioned investors should not feel paralysis but they also should not get involved in any kind of grumpy trade. what do you mean by that? mohamed: i will give you an
example that is striking. since we reached the bottom in the third week of march, you would have thought emerging markets, having underperformed into the bottom what have outperformed coming out, especially in equities. but because of the technicals, they have not. in fact, if you look from the bottom, the s&p is up from the bottom over 25%. emerging markets, just 15%. they underperformed on the way down. that tells you you have to revisit this notion. simply because it is a more risky asset class, as a whole, that asset class will do better when risk sentiment comes back. you have to rewrite the risks you are taking now that liquidity has become an issue. this is part of the be careful not to repeat what you have done in the past, because the world has been hit by a major shock.
that will not reverse overnight. within that, there are a lot of opportunities that would have paid you well. vonnie: are those opportunities now past? could you give us some ideas? mohamed: the biggest opportunity right now is, one, one robert said. you have companies and countries out there facing difficult liquidity issues. they are viable, they have sustainable debt, and they have assets. especially in the corporate world, what i've done robert and his colleagues do well is identifying the names, what assets can be used to collateralize your exposure. on the other side, as you know, i don't think we're out of the woods yet. i think we will see more volatility ahead as the market prices in a very hard restart. this will not be a simple
restart and a changed landscape. there will be opportunity to take advantage of liquidity-driven gapping in prices. let me give you an example of something that was already of interest before, argentina. obviously, the president said they would come up with a proposal on the debt restructuring. is it realistic that something like that happens in the next month, given all the problems surrounding the coronavirus? i ask you, because you are a creditor. robert: i absolutely think it is possible. ultimately, what argentina and others will need, is time. the market, even prior to the coronavirus crisis, had signaled it was willing to give argentina time, take a patient capital approach. i think what argentina and
reliefneed is cash flow in the short-term, a window to recover. that is the most important thing they can recover, get toward growth, sustainable growth. that does not mean that a debt restructuring cannot occur. i believe the market can find a solution and it need not be a zero-sum game to find a solution. vonnie: with creditors agree to a temporary standstill? why would they do that, why would you do that? mohamed: i like to think about -- robert: i like to think about what a standstill the cheese as opposed to a negotiating position. a standstill is a cessation of cash flow that believe argentina in this case. you could structure a comprehensive debt restructuring that includes zero cash flow, lighter cash flows -- what we call a frontloaded interest reduction bonds.
when you would in a standstill is low and no cash flow in the short period, and then as argentina builds of its capacity, buildup. there are huge implementation risks in a standstill, convincing bondholders in various jurisdictions to accept that. at the end of the day, if you can achieve a debt restructuring that gives you the benefit of a standstill up front, but gives you a comprehensive restructuring catch to that, isn't that a better way to go? vonnie: i do want to ask one more question. is attached as senior advisor, because he has so much respect for gramercy, but how do you navigate a changing em environment and all that time so well, given so many hedge funds and asset managers have gone by the wayside or in different directions? robert: thank you for that.
we feel fortunate to have 22 years now. we have been with the asset class before it was an asset class. we came at it from sovereign and corporate restructuring. we have always used that mentality, sometimes to underwrite distress, sometimes to filter it out of the portfolio. time,ou have this much emerging markets investing is about underwriting people. over 30 years, we have developed the ability to get to know people well. vonnie: thank you so much, we have to have a conversation like this or something similar soon. robert koenigsberger, mohamed el-erian. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?
shery: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. amanda lang will join us in a few minutes from toronto. welcome to bloomberg markets. we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. u.s. stocks sinking on the heels of their best weekly performance since the 1970's. the s&p 500 down more than 2% at session lows. crude oil prices gaining ground as the world's top producers agreed on an output cut. the cdc says the u.s. is near its peak in coronavirus cases, as confirmed infections top half a million nationwide. the death toll in new york state climbing above 10,000. governor andrew cuomo saying he thinks the worst is over if we continue to be smart. this as wall street braces for the start of earnings decent, investors looking to measure the impact of the virus on financials as the big banks give up to release their quarterly
results starting tuesday. that conversation is coming up next. let's get started with a quick check on the major averages. we continue to see the s&p 500 under pressure, down 1.9%, this after rallying almost 25% from its march lows. we are seeing u.s. bank and financial firms starting to report this week, so we are now kicking off earnings season. we will have more on what to expect from financials later in the show. the dow is down more than 2%. remember, crude rallying, we saw the historic opec cut of 9.7 million barrels a day. fluctuations in the overnight prices across asia. despite the fact that this is an historic deal to cut output by nearly attend, goldman sachs
saying that this may be insufficient. let's get a closer look at the an expert.h amand she is focused on the data each day on the virus. samantha, because there is so much uncertainty, analysts are at a loss when it comes to what to expect this earnings season. how do you gauge the rest of the year for these companies, when traditional metrics such as revenue, debt, cash flow, you have no visibility there? that's exactly right, there is a lot of uncertainty with a macro, that is obvious, but normally companies provide us guidance. this time around, that is not going to be the case. we have been looking at consensus estimates. through the first quarter,
expected to be around -15%. they could be better or worse than that. q1 aside, we have moved through quarter one. this is backward looking data. what we need is guidance around the rest of the data. year. that will be hard to come by. if we cannot look at company financials, it will come back to the state of the economy and the state of the covid data. even though economic data tends to be slower moving, there is more transparency there. cases come down, if we can reopen the economy, that will bode well for corporate and equity earnings. shery: what will that mean for the markets? the markets bottomed out a few months before the start of a recession. where are we at? samantha: very good point. we think this recession and subsequent recovery will be u-shaped.
i know some people were talking about v's, l's. we think it will be u-shaped. the issue is how long we stall at the bottom before the economy opens. i would argue the market is a little bit too optimistic given how negative the employment data has been. when push comes to shove, many people have lost their jobs. however, putting people back to work is another story. that will be very difficult. we want it to be easy but it likely will not be. i don't think the equity market is completely pricing in the dynamic of how we recover, what are the economics of reopening a massive economy and putting people back to work. that is where the uncertainty, and i would argue the downside risk, is right now. amanda: this is amanda lang from toronto. one of the questions has been the shape of the recovery.
as we hear from the banks this week, is that one place where we start to price in the duration of pain? we have never seen this level of deferred mortgage relief, stimulus moves by government, but that will not actually juice the economy. on the other side, we will have to juice the economy as in any normal recession. when will that show up in the banks? samantha: really interesting point. i would argue any piece of the market that is higher beta, any piece of the market that is more sensitive to economic growth, that will be our dull weather. we are going to wait and see what those earnings look like. ellweather.l be our b this will take time. the market is with song -- whi
psawwing a lot. that is something that we have to get used to. we could be in a bear market rally. we may not have tested the lows. i really think this comes back to the macro economic data, and what some of those bellwethers tell us, what those sectors of the market tell us. amanda: four people like you, , when you come again at data, you also have to look at virology, the course of a pandemic. one question we are starting to about marketshink returning to previous levels, do we need a pandemic to return to previous levels, which is to say gone? eradicatedcovid-19 before we can get back to what looks like normal stocks? samantha: there are varying
views around us, and it is linked to the stall at the bottom. to get back to normal, as we know it, which will likely be different than the past, we need a back scene that is our view. that being said, there is a lot that can be done in the meantime. vaccine.d a that is our view. as we roll back in and start to open things. it is not just going to snap back. this is not just a light switch, on, off. the long run equities is intact. it is just hard right now to feel opportunistic. longer run, i would say this. even if it took three years for us to recover, get back to the onk, the equity market peak february 19, even if it took three years, that implies an annual average return of 10% on the s&p 500.
even if it was quicker or longer, those are still going to be significantly better returns than you would see in fixed income perhaps. fixed income is still important, we cannot lose the long-run case for equities in times like this. that is samantha azzarello. as we mentioned, earnings season beginning this week, banks releasing their earnings for the quarter, but with the coronavirus forcing most companies to pull their guidance for the rest of the year, it will look very different. with us now is sonali basak. we have banks really getting affected by not only the yield curve inversion but also the fed rate actions. what should we be watching this earnings season? sonali: it will be a mixed bag for earnings. we will see some winners and some losers. one thing we will be looking out for at all banks is a loan-loss position that provision and lower interest rates.
we have seen in good times, banks bring down their expectations for net interest income. that can only come lower as the year goes on. loan-loss revisions, we want to hear not only what they are for the current quarter, but what they think may happen in the next couple of quarters, depending on how long they think the pain will last. how much more do you think might be expected from the banks? we will want to know how they will spend their existing capital moving forward. we have seen all of these banks already say they would suspend by banks. not to expect much of a change in their dividend. remember, last year, a lot of these banks had a cost versus investment story. where were they spending money when it came to technology? where were they becoming competitive with trading?
trials, that is according to the world health organization. is at thest along beijing institute of technology. under pressure to negotiate another stimulus package this week. 17 million americans have lost their jobs in the past month. billions of dollars in funding for small businesses may run out in days. republicans want to add more money to the small business loan program. democrats want more money for struggling hospitals. is governor of new york sounding a tone of cautious optimism. andrew cuomo says the worst is over if we continue to be smart. still, he said the coronavirus pandemic will not truly be over until there is a vaccine. that could take 12 to 18 months. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by
bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. the coalition of northeast governors is expected to announce a plan at 2:00 eastern today on how they will coordinate the reopening of their states after the virus outbreak. andic policy officials health experts have been debating this very issue. dr. mark mcclellan, former usda commissioner is suggesting how this may be done in four phases. great to have you with us. what the different phases you envision in your report are, where we are at right now, and how long it will take to get to the next phase? mark: good to be with you. right now, we are still in the first phase, hopefully coming through successfully the initial
surge in this pandemic in the united states. it is happening in different places with new york passing the peak, other areas, new orleans, and the like, it's been tough conditions in some of these hard-hit areas, but they do seem to be keeping up with and responding to the intensity of cases they face, and are on the downside. there are other regions of the country that still have increases in cases going on now. hasfully, the total surge been flattened by all of the physical distancing steps we have put in place in most of the country. but we are still in the first phase now. move into the second phase is one that is more about containment. we don't have a vaccine yet, as you pointed out, that is still probably a ways away, but we want to take steps toward a new kind of normalcy where people
can do more activities, business can safely and securely take more steps toward reopening. tot includes some key steps be in place to make it happen. the steps include our health care system being ready for any potential future surge, it includes businesses and people across the country taking further steps under this new normal to reduce the risk of virus transmission and spread. and very importantly, it involves more testing to identify new outbreaks early, and a follow-up capacity to contain those outbreaks by tracing contacts, and by having the ability to put in place some isolation steps and support for those affected, so we don't ever have a big outbreak like we have seen again. is thehree of our report
me get that vaccine available and can move into widespread immunization of the population, get to the point where we will not be at significant risk of further outbreak. right now, those risks remain substantial. in the future, making sure this never happens again, by building on what we have learned in this outbreak, building on the investment we are making, testing capacity, in our public health care systems, so that we never again have this kind of horrific experience. i'm curious to get your thoughts on what happens if we rush through those phases. thatw that in the paper you wrote, you are calling for additional health care workers. i assume that is a structural change you are suggesting, not a short-term one. the real risk is that we rush
through, including once we have a vaccine, and we we opened too early. are you concerned about that? is a lot of pressure for reopening, understandably so, because of the economic impact, and the health and well-being impact that these health measures are having. but we need to take some steps to be prepared for preventing anything like this last surge in cases from happening again. that will not enable people to be confident about going out in public more, going back to work more normal activities, will not be helpful for businesses. now, while weight are getting through the rest of this initial surge, it is critical to take steps to build capacity for the next phase of the pandemic, which hopefully will be the containment phase. it will be with us for a while, but if we take steps around
changing our daily practices, the way we do business, we open fashion, along with more testing and the ability to act on those tests, we should be able to move way beyond where we are today in the coming weeks. shery: we had heard from south c that some of these patients that seemingly acovered from the illness saw reactivation of the coronavirus. do we have enough understanding of how this virus works in order to be talking about testing, testing for antibodies to be enough to reopen the economy? mark: we are learning more every day about the virus. this is still a relatively new pandemic. frankly, we don't know how long people who have been exposed -- let's say immune -- at least in serious coronaviruses, those
that had a serious case, that immunity should last a while. there have been a lot of mild cases, and weic have not had time to do the studies to see how much that immunity develops and persists. that is why it's important to develop two types of test. that is one type of test looks for the presence of antibodies in the blood. those are the ones where we really don't know yet what it means. whichld like to say people are immune and can go about their old lives as normal and maybe help out in some critical tasks in this reopening process, but we have not worked out that testing capacity or even the basic science yet. that means the other types of tests that are really important for the short and medium term in reopening, and that is accurate diagnostic tests that can be bee at large-scale, can
linked to a follow-up ability to contain any outbreaks that we find. that will be key to this next phase, this containment phase, for the epidemic. amanda: we need to leave it there. great to get your expertise on this, dr. mark mcclellan, former commissioner of the u.s. fda. coming up, our conversation with michael no regrets -- novogratz. you are watching bloomberg. stay with us. ♪
concerts, but we will be going to work, our kids will be going to school, we will be going to bars, they're just will not be as many people in them, and life will look something like normal, like hong kong. >> what sort of hangover will be there for the economy? we will be in our offices, even though we are not going to rock concerts and bars, after being shot in for three months? this is a $64,000 question. we have had the single largest economic destruction in our lives. that is not debatable. at the same time, we have the single largest fiscal and monetary stimulus than any of us have seen in our lifetimes. so trying to sort all of this out, i think, being a traitor trader willder -- get harder.
last week, you could predict ath count icu or deta was, you had an idea of where the markets would go. that is not the case anymore. we have earnings next week. it leaves the market vulnerable. we are in a range. we have probably put the low in for the year because there was so much panic selling. and the range could be big. it could be 2900 to 2100. but i think it is going to get more difficult. fundamentals are going to matter more. one.will not always be companies that benefit from the stimulus will look good. but it will be a more difficult environment. book how is your macro position looking now?
michael: i got short for the first time in a while. selling into the fed's last bazooka of buying high yields. it is not a structural position, it is a tactical position. i will trade short for a while. but it is the first time i have thely been big short since lows. i am still long on gold, bitcoin. we are seeing a monetization of debt that we have not seen in our lifetimes, and not just in the u.s., it is a global monetization. shery: that was michael novogratz. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is 2:00 p.m. in new york. i am scarlet fu. romain: and i am romaine bostick. looking at a little bit of a down day here in the markets. we had a pretty decent rally. that faded on friday. look at where the s&p 500 stands. you are coming off a long easter weekend here. are closed asts well and that is putting pressure on stocks. areme well below what we used to seeing over the past seven weeks. take a look at the laggards on a day like today -- real estate, financial, and industrials leading us lower. when you take a look at what is happening in oil -- this has been interesting -- go back to last week. we had this historic oil deal.