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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  April 15, 2020 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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>> welcome to "daybreak: asia." you down are counting to asia's major market open. our top stories this hour. the coronavirus passes a bleak milestone, 2 million infections. the u.s. economy has gone into defensive mode. the virus maintains pressure on oil prices, falling to their lowest in two decades as the
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demand for fuel continues to collapse. u.s. futures dropping below $20 a barrel. bridgewater associates says the pandemic is more damaging than the financial crisis i decade ago. we hear from the cochairman, ray dalio, this hour. shery: here is how markets are trading at the moment. we are seeing stocks continue to gain ground for the third session. we continue to see downside pressure for u.s. futures, which are down 0.7%. really accelerating those losses this evening. this after the s&p 500 already sank from a one-month high. we have seen earnings, economic data highlighting the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. nikkei futures down 0.4%. as we continue to see an appreciation in the japanese yen, which is now at a two week strength against the u.s. dollar. when it comes to crude, prices rebounding a little bit after plunging to the lowest level in two decades after the record
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collapse in u.s. fuel demand. in his daily coronavirus briefing, president trump saying there are positive developments. >> the battle continues, but the data suggests that nationwide, we have passed the peak on new cases. hopefully, that will continue and we will continue to make great progress. virus it comes as global cases topped 2 million. our congress editor in washington. this at a time when president trump really wants to reopen the economy as soon as he can. he is saying that reopening states will be safe and that they may even exceed expectations. what sort of announcement could we expect tomorrow? >> well, the president has given us the idea of forming some sort of task force to come up with a comprehensive plan.
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apparently using phone calls with business leaders and other representatives, including health officials, to form his views on it. he is promising some sort of guideline. he has also backed away from the notion that he will order states to move ahead. focuseds likely to be on areas where the spread of the virus has so far been low or is declining, but the problem remains that the tests are still running short in many areas, particularly in some of the farther reaches of the country. we have seen some rural areas that had sudden spikes in infections. there are issues of meat processing plants where workers have suddenly seen a spread.
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it will have to be fairly flexible and pretty well defined rollout that will leave it up to the governors of the states to decide how fast they want to move. in the meantime, president trump has said something else that could trigger a constitutional fight, right? he has threatened the possibility of adjourning both houses of congress? >> yes, this would be a rather unusual step. of thes, in article 2 constitution, a section that suggests that in an emergency, when the house and senate cannot agree on adjournment, the president can declare them adjourned until such time as he sees fit. this has never been tried and it is certainly unclear whether this would meet the criteria for him to do that constitutionally.
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something that really generates some backlash from some of his allies in the republican party, including senate majority leader mitch jealousl, who is very with regard to the prerogatives of the senate. his complaint, and this has been true since 2007, is that the senate never actually adjourns. they continue a pro forma session. what can happen during an adjournment is that the president has the ability to make recess appointments to positions that would otherwise require senate confirmation, so this foring to force some time by using this process. and it remains to be seen whether he does, it is something that would surely go
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to the supreme court. administration, it was unanimously ruled that the president could not make these recess appointments by declaring that congress was adjourned. this would take it one step further. it would be quite a tangle. shery: president trump also making it a point to bring secretary sonny perdue to talk about the state of farms in the usa. he has told them to distribute china tariff receipts to farmers. how is the farming community in the united states being affected by the coronavirus outbreak and what would this do? >> the big problem for farms is the closedown of restaurants, which are roughly half, particularly a lot of the fresh produce. there is plenty of food out there, but it is not really getting to the right places and
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it is not always the right things. the president has promised additional aid for farmers who are suffering some effects. reports farmers are pouring out milk or plowing under crops because they can't either get them harvested in some way or there is not enough of a market, as commercial food facilities are shut down. there is going to be some additional money going to farmers. they perdue talked about u.s. government actually buying up some of the supply stocks that they have on hand. it is still being worked out. -- sonny perdue is up there to primarily assure consumers that there is not a shortage of food out there. right, joe with the
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latest out of d.c. let's get you caught up to date with the first word headlines. >> good morning. a new report says the u.s. economy adopted a defensive mode as the coronavirus moves through the country with activity contracting sharply across all areas and regions. reporting a highly uncertain outlook, with most seeing a deterioration in the coming months. based on evidence gathered by the fed's 12 local branches. spain has reported the largest rising coronavirus cases in six days, although the daily death toll has declined. more than 5000 new infections were confirmed on wednesday, taking a total close to 180,000, 18,500.talities rose to itsany is set to extend lockdown. indonesia expanded its lockdown to more than 34 million people ahead of ramadan due to start at
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the end of next week. it includes a ban on gatherings of more than five people at religious and social events and amendatory wearing of masks. the government is also ordering airlines to limit passengers to 50% capacity. south korea seems to like president moon's handling of the coronavirus. his party is set for a resounding election victory, possibly taking 180 of the seats in parliament. his approval ratings have risen and the mass testing has earned widespread applause. it would be the first time in 12 years that his party has an outright majority. global news -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. we will get more reaction to the korean election later in the show. we will be joined by the
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president of the korea society. up next, what to look for in this earnings season as the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the economy? we will be joined by wells fargo asset management's ann miletti. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: as the end to one of the most uncertain earnings seasons on record, banks are giving us a glimpse of what to expect. traders are assisting the long-term impact -- assessing the long-term impact of the coronavirus. ann miletti joins us from wells fargo. this earnings, comparatively, held up pretty well, but in subsequent results and releases
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-- but for the broader economy and investors, the question is when you have so many companies either withdrawing or withholding guidance, is there any point to looking at year end forecasting and company result forecasting when there is a much uncertainty? if not, what do you do in terms of looking for fundamentals to be able to invest on? ann: it is a really good question. i think investors are really trying to sort that out and trying to keep focus. i think 2020 clearly was going to be a washout for earnings. we knew that as soon as the economy was shot down. -- shut down. looking atre earnings normalization, cash flow normalization, and the strength of the balance sheets of the companies they are investing in today. those of the most important things. they are also tied to how
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quickly the economy can get started back up. haidi: what we do know is that governments around the world and central banks are doing whatever it takes. they are throwing all their ammunition at this and a lot of investors have said, is there ?ny potential risk it could be to the upside of the virus comes under control and the lockdowns are lifted sooner than expected. what do we need to hear from companies now? is the focus still on how bad the economy is going to be, or do investors need to hear from companies and whether they feel the stimulus will be able to positively support them? ann: well, i think it has changed. the first round or phase one of it was what are you doing to protect your employees and protect your business model? now, it is moving toward, what does your balance sheet look
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like? what does your cash flow look like during this timeframe? continues,g, if this if the shutdown continuous for another month, two months, three months, how long can you sustain the shutdown? that is clearly on investors minds and that is what they want to hear from management. that is what some of the questions will be on the earnings call. then we will move to another ,hase and that phase will be did it actually strengthen your position or did it weaken your position relative to your competitors in the market? again, that is where asset managers are really spending a lot of time making sure that they own the right companies on the other side of the storm. there was a lot of secular change happening in the market ahead of this. that secular change actually has just been accelerated. shery: it seems that we continue
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to see the same trend we saw in the bull market entering the bear market, where it is these big u.s. tech giants outperforming everyone else and really value stocks not making a comeback. is this trend going to continue? are there any winners, even within those sectors? think the first place that investors focused was the tech sector. -- i no surprise because just have to say congratulations to you all as a network -- you are doing such a fabulous job and dealing with a lot of issues while doing it, but you are doing such a great job. working remotely, we are teaching our kids remote learning, right? with teachers doing it from school, some parents doing it. digital health care is happening. people having appointments with
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their doctors online. more and more online shopping. so, all of those are focused on the technology space. it is no wonder why the growth sectors that are associated with so much secular change in our economy continue to be the places where investors want to continue to put more money to work. i do think you touched on one important point. there will be areas when we start to see the economy come back on go more cyclical areas bethe market that will also attractive to investors. we saw today, some of the transport companies started to report in the u.s. it is clear that transportation is still important, it is to let big part of the supply chain. it is cyclical and many of the companies are considered value stocks, but those might be part of the winners as we exit. sectors of the market
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very dependent on american consumption strength. not only are we seeing a fundamental change with remote working, but also social distancing in the way that consumers behave, but also the equal data out of the u.s. today, just abysmal. data was the economic nothing really short of disastrous. retail sales posted the largest drop on record, down almost 9%. that was more than double what we saw in 2008. the largest decline going back many, many years. you know, i think what we are seeing again is a shift. the secular shift in how consumers are consuming things. we are doing more and more things online. i think that will continue. the supply chain itself within the retail channel and how consumers are consuming is going
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to be changed for good. intowe will still go stores once the virus is over, but there will be some retailers that never set up themselves well, never invested enough to focus both on and online presence and set up their supply chain to serve customers online and in stores. it will be those retailers that benefit, the ones that did that, that made those investments. the ones that didn't -- [indiscernible] always great having you with us, ann miletti. coming up next, bridgewater associates says the pandemic will cost of the world $20 trillion. our interview with ray dalio is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: bank of america, citigroup, and goldman reported the pandemic's impact on their earnings. a major trend is emerging. trading debt helping to salvage profit. the details now. this was particularly true in terms of the trend for goldman, which saw its trading business sore. >> in fact, their trading revenue came in at $5.2 billion, a 28% surge into beat expectations. it started to offset a lot of damage. it follows on the heels of jp morgan also coming in with a very strong trading quarter. but if you look at the charts on how these banks did today, while goldman ended higher as opposed to bank of america and citi, it was down as much is 5% earlier in the session as it recorded and almost $900 million hit and
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that contributed to a 46% decline in profit. let's hear from the ceo of goldman about what is ahead. >> there is obviously a wide range of uncertainty around forward projections given the unknown duration of the health crisis. the reality is that none of us know for sure. this is why it is critically important during this difficult period that we maintain a strong financial profile and remain agile and flexible. yes, a lot of uncertainty. that seems to be the theme among all the banks. they all have mirrored each other in showing large provisions for loan losses well over double what the expectations are. bank of america saw first quarter profit dropped 45% as they put aside for $.76 billion for potential bad loans. .76 billion for potential losses. iti was wiped out by the $7
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billion they had to put aside for the loan provisions. right, and we do get morgan stanley reporting tomorrow. we know that the company had a pretty strong start to the year with wealth assets and equities. what are we expecting for the first quarter? bewell, we do know they will reporting before the opening bell. they started well with a lot of wealth assets and equities, so the margins are expected to carry them a bit. the fourth quarter did suggested that we did have some stabilization in trading share, so there will again be a focus on how robust that trading revenue was, as well. it is important to point out that during the last major crisis for banks, the fact that trading added to the losses was a big part of prior declines.
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now, we are seeing they are actually offsetting a lot of this. that is a big difference here. traders are going to be continuing to be a focus point in these earnings. next week, we have a lot of the regional banks. this time, so far, the trend appears clearer that the trading debts that have been subject to many cuts are offering much-needed relief as the banks present their numbers. shery: su keenan with the latest on bank earnings. more on morgan stanley's earnings later with ceo james gorman. let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. halting operations at warehouses in france after a court banned sales of nonessential goods. deliveries being suspended there monday after the company was declared to be not doing enough to protect staff from covid-19.
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amazon has been given 24 hours to comply with a ruling to sell only essential items, such as food and hygiene products, and to upgrade security measures. toshiba is to furlough 76,000 workers in japan, around half the domestic workforce. in an attempt to halt the spread of the coronavirus. all local factories and the headquarters itself will shut down eight april 20 -- april 20 through may 6. that follows the call by prime minister abe calling for staff to work from home. google is pausing recruitments for the rest of the year as the coronavirus batters it ad business. the pace of hiring will slow, although those already picked up will be able to start work. employees are working from home and the company is covering pay and benefits for contract staff. it has not announced any job losses. almost 119,000
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full-time workers at the end of last year. gopro has announced a widespread restructuring plan that involves cost cuts and job losses. it aims to trim one hundred million dollars off operating expenses this year, with another 250 million dollars to come in 2021. gopro is losing more than 200 jobs and aims to reduce office space and cut sales and marketing outlay. the company is withdrawing its guidance for the year and said it sees a loss of about $.30 a share. here it's another check of the markets. we are seeing stocks supported. another day of gains. over a month. nikkei futures and u.s. futures under pressure as the s&p 500 sank from the one-month high. we had dismal economic data in the u.s. brittle -- bleak retail manufacturing and home data.
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crude prices rebounding from that lowest level in two decades after the collapse in u.s. fuel demand. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "daybreak asia." i am karina mitchell with the first word headlines. the coronavirus has passed a grim milestone with global infections approaching 2 million and deaths approaching 130,000. world health organization rejects criticism from president trump and defends its work with china. the group says its mandate is to promote health globally. it will work with anyone. a new study suggests president trump's much touted antivirus medicine does not work. a small experiment involving 150 patients in china shows hydroxychloroquine work to know better than standard health care
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and was more likely to trigger side effects. the research has not been reviewed by western doctors and more studies are underway. india is planning to ease virus restrictions next week to reboot its stalling economy. i.t. companies, farmers, and rural industries will resume work as the government tries to -- ministers will lift curbs on e-commerce firms and allow movement of goods from airports. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. shery. shery: bridgewater associates says the virus pandemic will worse a new order and cost in the world economy trillions of dollars. cochairman and co-cio ray dalio told bloomberg the u.s. stimulus measures so far are appropriate more will be needed. the incomes in the united
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states, we estimate somewhere in the vicinity of $5 trillion and the world economy is probably somewhere in the vicinity of $20 trillion. and we look at particularly who has watched. and then how they will be filled. economy, as a result of this, the real economy, which is goods, services, production, and all of that, in the world, over the next year, will probably 4% or 5%, which is a bigger floor. this is a bigger event than the 2008 financial crisis, and it is most comparable to the 1930 to 1945 period of time in terms of, you know, the size of the whole. the unemployment rates and that type of impact. we will adapt. one of the great things about
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the greatest force in humanity and the greatest force in productivity is the capacity of humans to adapt and change the way they are doing things, and we are doing that right now. that thety confident inventiveness, the adaptation, will bring us to a new way of operating, and let's say if you take that decline, that will be a decline of somewhere in that magnitude. that will get past that. it will be a total new world order. notnew world will resemble the world we are used to. it will resemble it in various ways. it is a big hole, not an unsustainable hole because the capacity of producing money and credit is unlimited. it means we have to look at what is the value of money and credit, ok? that new world.
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what is the value of money and credit? what is the store hold of wealth? you just cannot produce without having an effect on its value. when we talk about production, we will adapt and we will get past it, but how wealth will change will be very big and different. come back to to that in just a moment. and i keep saying i am going to come back to the things your mentioning but i promise i will. in your opinion, is what we have seen thus far in the way of fiscal stimulus in the federal government and monetary stimulus from the federal reserve appropriate? are both of those organs of the u.s. government doing what they should be doing, and if they are not doing quite enough yet, what else should they be doing? yes, in my reaction, there is no choice.
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in the 2008 financial crisis, you are faced with a choice. do you want those banks to exist in the future or do you want to get rid of those? not have had enough savings and they may have done even things that they should bear the consequences of, but you want to save the banks, and so, this is a crisis that is similar except he goes way beyond the banks. so when you start to think who do you want to save? you have to think about do you provide them with income, and how much do you deal with their balance sheet? if you do not do that, the consequences are you norm us, so the reaction needed to be of the support -- are enormous, so the reaction needed to be of the sort. where does it come from and what does it mean? we will turn to that in a minute, but it is just like the great depression.
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you will need to do more and we will argue over what we should , and that gets what will be our big discussion, but yes, there has to be more money and credit, and you have to operate in a way where you save important things, and you only impose a certain amount of suffering on people that they can bear, otherwise, you will have a revolution and you will not have productivity. that was cochairman and co-cio, ray dalio, speaking with bloomberg's own erik schatzker. the european commission says companies and workers will not get back to business as usual until there is a vaccine or a cure for covid-19. the e.u. leaders have begun laying out a roadmap for a partial lifting of restrictions in an effort to kind of mitigate the economic fallout. yvonne man has the latest. this is going to be a gradual,
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and he would imagine, sort of stop/start easing process. what are the conditions that the e.u. are looking at to be fulfilled before any kind of lifting of lockdowns could occur? yvonne: yeah, i think it is safe to say we are not even close to getting back to normal until we see some type of cure for covid-19 according to the european commission, but this will be -- at least right now, they have laid out a plan on how this is going to be lifted, these gradual exits from these lockdowns. the commission president said the three conditions they are looking at right now is infections have had to decrease significantly for a sustained period of time. units, medicines, beds, and equipment, and there's a large-scale capacity for testing. to continueeffort to expand that type of testing so they can monitor the spread of the virus.
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do meet- once they those restrictions, requirements, then they can start thinking about tracking systems to look after people using mobile apps, also maintaining social distancing measures. there are still some restrictive measures we have seen that are still in place, especially for the elderly, which continue to be high-risk, and then you have to be able to start thinking about lifting travel and border crossing restrictions and then maybe later on you start thinking about in coming travel -- incoming travel from non-e.u. missions which will be phased in later. germany is a good example of that. we have seen angela merkel. she has extended those restrict of measures up until may 3, but she is thinking about trying to reopen some of the smaller german businesses for now, perhaps, and start thinking about opening up schools. but when it comes to large gatherings like concerts,
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festivals, soccer matches, those are not going to be reopened until well before the end of august or so, and before we can start thinking about actually letting these types of social gatherings take place once again. shery: what are we seeing in terms of infection curves across the european union? yvonne: right, so it really depends on where each country in europe is dealing with this infection curve, whether they can actually take a different approach when it comes to lifting these lockdowns. in italy, we continue to see signs of destabilization, reporting the fewest new virus infections and 4.5 weeks. italy are looking at lifting these restrictions. some of them at least as early as this week. spain as well, but we did see spain -- we did see new infections a spike up the most in the last five days or so. clearly not out of the woods just yet. france in particular, we saw one of the deadliest couple of days we have seen for some time. our bloomberg markets
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coanchor, yvonne man, thank you very much for that. and we do have an alert on the bloomberg. china. a carmaker in now reporting preliminary first quarter net income falling 95% on year. this because of the covid-19 outbreak. they are reporting net income for the first quarter falling 95% on year, saying the production and operation have gradually resumed, of course. we have seen car sales really plunging in the first quarter of this year. for china, the china association of automobile manufacturers saying it fell 40 proof of -- 42% compared to last year and we are now getting the latest numbers from carmaker bsic. european commission executives speaking exclusively to bloomberg about possible coordinated aid for european airlines and how to protect
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businesses hit by the pandemic. >> it depends quite a lot on how long this will take. the first wave of measures is of course liquidity in nrs amounts -- enormous amounts. it may be so that later, recapitalization may be needed and here, we are just consulting on common european framework, if that is needed, in order to make would wantber states wit to recapitalize businesses, in the same way we maintain a level playing field, we try to limit the distortion of competition, and we have had quite positive responses to that with member states, but it will take still some days until we are ready to launch it. >> you did turn a few heads with your interview a few days ago in which you advocated for states taking stakes in companies in order to keep china from taking over some of those companies.
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is that how you feel still a few days later, commissioner? margrethe: i think it is very, very important that we are vigilant, because we have come into this health crisis in different points in time. we are suffering from it to a different degree in any point in time. some countries, they open. some countries are deep in the crisis and people are really suffering. that also means that in the economic recovery, some will be stronger before others have fully recovered, and that of course is a risk that businesses may be vulnerable for a hostile takeover. it is important not to be naive in these days because a number of sectors are strategic. a number of sectors are indeed needed. it is important for businesses to know that the states can step in if they want to end if need be, but also for the potential people who want to do a hostile
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takeover, that we are vigilant, and that we will use the tools we have available. >> commissioner, kind of picking up on that, you have in place at the moment a temporary framework that is allowing greater theibility when it comes to state aid rules to protect businesses being affected by the virus, to affect businesses that could be subject to such a takeover. i am wondering how long do you see that temporary framework being in place, and when the sort of temporary element ends, whether or not you see needed changes to the current longer-term framework when it comes to competition within europe. foremost, we have already changed the temporary framework once. aid tole more coronavirus research production, to make sure businesses who change their production, that they can get a no loss
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guarantee. toare changing it recapitalization in a way that limits competition but the entire framework is set to be in place until the end of the year, but of course we will evaluate at the other side of summer if it needs to be prolonged. at the same time, we are in the process of looking into all of our rules and guidelines in order to make sure they are fit to purpose. wherestill an economy automated station, technology, is changing not only how we produce but also business models. it is important that competition andit that purpose i think that will be relevant on the other of the coronavirus as it was before. >> net was the european commission executive, speaking
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exclusively to bloomberg. coming up next, still awaiting final results for south korea's ruling party, looks set for a pretty big victory in the national elections. we will get the very latest on that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: the election in south korea seems to have resulted in a big win for the governing
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democratic party of president moon jae-in. the -- a referendum on government's handling of the coronavirus crisis. let's get an update from thomas byrne. great to have you with us. it seems to be quite a turnaround for president moon jae-in, right? because going into this pandemic, there was a lot of criticism that he did not close the borders with china soon enough, and now, he is being praised for actually handling the virus outbreak very well. so was this a reflection -- was the election a reflection of what happened afterwards? thomas: i think it was. actually, what happened was that, first of all, korea responds well when there is a crisis. koreans have grit. they respond well. they responded very well to the imf asian financial crisis, responding very well now.
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a bunch of institutions and government organizations that really went through a similar experience in 2013. they were very vigilant. than thengs earlier politicians, many politicians were slow on the uptake of this. everything came together really quickly in the middle of february. the government has orchestrated a good program. public health institutions and citizens all chipping in, all three of them together to manage this crisis very well. gete are now expecting to another extra budget from the south korean government. this of course after an already $10 billion package. how much political capital will president moon jae-in get now to really put in place all of his economic priorities that he set for us when he came into office? thomas: yeah. a lot of it will depend on the precise number of seats that the
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democratic party and its affiliated parties get. they need the 300 seats in the national assembly. they need 180 for a semi-super majority where they can get many bills through quickly. a super majority, they need two thirds of the 300 member national assembly. it would really help out president moon get his agenda enacted. haidi: is this something of a potential opportunity for a reset for moon? particularly as he seeks to convert the potential leverage out of this election to be able to truly reshape the economy the way that he has people lisa lee campaigned on -- previously campaigned on? thomas: president moon has
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really struggled with his income led economic policies. when he came into office, gdp grew 3.2% in 2017 and slowed down to 3.2% in 2017, slowed down to 2% last year. this year, who knows what it is going to be. maybe not as bad as other countries in the u.s. predicted. it could be flat. but the priority was simply to get the government's, and then know,ld take on his, you the progressive policy agenda that he has. haidi: in terms of what specific , i guess, postelection, you know, policies that we are expecting, is there -- fiscal policy, this potential extra budget, will be done in the immediate aftermath of getting
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the economy back on track after the global pandemic uses? -- eases? and how much these policies will be sustained in the aftermath period? thomas: for the first time, south korea is actually in their fiscal stimulus, the supplemental budgets, the fiscal stimulus plan for the court -- for the coronavirus problem. cashare giving out transfers. doing that in the u.s. we did that back in the financial crisis. this is something new, something absolutely necessary because employment has gone up in south korea. there will be probably more of these and if they do get a super majority and semi-super majority, however you want to describe the 180 votes, the composition of these can be more tailored towards the agenda of the democratic party. firing arth korea
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variety of missiles. do south koreans care at all at this point given so much going on over the virus outbreak, not to mention the economy? know, wherever that redline is, i don't think any of this has come close to the redline. there are ballistic missiles but they are not long-range. they are not the type that you can fit a nuclear warhead on, but this is business as usual for north korea. they have been doing this over and over again since the hanoi summit failed. koreans, you know, they were hopeful they would be engagement with north korea. that has dimmed, to say the least. i think south koreans are mainly ,oncerned about the pandemic you know, the government's response, their ability to
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recover from the pandemic. thank you so much for joining us. korean society president, thomas byrne, with us, taking a look at these election results, and we will get more on the later. the imf mission chief joins us at 10:10 hong kong time this morning and after that at 11:30 hong kong, we will be speaking to the national university professor of law. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines this hour. honda is set to lay off thousands of salaried u.s. employees. expanding virus cost-cutting measures that initially affected only production workers. honda employees about 31,000 people in the u.s. and says the pandemic is stopping buyers from purchasing new vehicles. white-collar staff in california will be furloughed first, followed by workers elsewhere from this weekend. car sales in china have reason for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak with drivers buying an average 33,400 vehicles a day last week, up 14% from a year ago, but still down 12% for the first two weeks of april. ahead of the china passenger car
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association says the market is recovering, but he does not expect the world's biggest auto market to stabilize until at least july. china's beleaguered hna group has escaped mystic bond defaults after a hastily arranged credit meeting. the heavily indebted conglomerate gained enough support from creditors to extend a local note worth around $55 million that was due wednesday. for another year, bond buyers, bondholders, were given half an hour by the government to make their decisions. let's check in on asian markets, where we are looking like asian markets will follow the u.s. session lower, this after the s&p fell from its highest levels in about a month. australian futures are bracing for those march unemployment numbers, which are due to look pretty ugly. new zealand extending those gains for a third session, trading at the highest in a month. we are getting news new zealand could be on track to exit its lockdown as of next week. nikkei futures looking pretty
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abysmal as well although the nikkei is up to close to 2% from its march low. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ shery: good eveningshery: from bloomberg's global headquarters in new york. i am shery anh. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts. asia's major markets have just opened for trade. our top stories, asian stocks set for declines on weaker economic data as the coronavirus marks a bleak milestone, more than 230,000 deaths. the virus maintains pressure on oil. people go to the lowest in two
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decades. u.s. futures dropping below $20 a barrel. jobs, data from australia showing the on employment rate heading for 10.5%. shery: let's get you started with a quick check of the market. they are kicking off trading. japan, the nikkei starting with a downside of 1.4%. the same for the topix. we had been seeing weakness across the japanese yen, holding 107 level. this as we continue to see the latest economic impact from the coronavirus. imf saying they see the use for capital flow measures in asia during this pandemic, that asian countries should make use of the swap lines, that growth is at a standstill in 2020, following the imf earlier, saying the
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click -- the great locked in recession would be the steepest in a century. look at the kospi. it is coming back from election day in south korea. the kospi is down 1% after exit jae-in'swed moon ruling party had a stunning victory. we are talking about the first time in 12 years the party would have an outright majority in both national assembly. the korean won trading at that 12.26 level. handling therea coronavirus outbreak and perhaps the success of moon jae-in's party, a reflection of how successful south korea has been in reining in this virus crisis. let's take a look at how
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we are setting up with the start of the trading session in australia. there is pressure the we are getting the march unemployment numbers out today, bracing for an ugly print as we look at so many services, restaurants, tourism, education being shuttered. we see the aussie dollar plunged after the record bond sale overnight. we are seeing upside with trading in new zealand. we are hearing from the deputy prime minister in new zealand saying the country is set to exit its lockdown next week. new zealand has had great success with one of the strictest lockdown schemes in the world. looking at individual stocks, crown resorts is one we are watching after the casino operator secured a $650 million australian facility of banks as well as half a million dollars
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to build a gaming resort. the company saying it stood down 95% of its workforce. that is more than 11,500 employees. we will see the fallout playing here when it comes to some of these companies. shery: let's discuss the asian market outlook. we are joined by the chief investment strategist for aipac. the imf saying asian countries should make use of swap lines, if they see the use for capital flow measures in asia. we have seen the strength of the beingollar being bid up the safe haven move. how will this impact asian markets overall? >> good morning. you identify and essential asp an essentialify
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aspect of dollars. responseand scale of obviously from the fed and also global policymakers more broadly to speak to an array of problems, but specifically this one. the fed into thousand eight and 2009 took several courses -- in 2008 and 2009 took several courses to get to this. it has done this now in days. the steps taken the last couple of weeks should help address this exact vital problem, making sure that there are enough dollars flowing to the global and asian rental system to help economies to fund -- financial system to help economies to fund. it is the defective reserve bank of the world -- the de facto
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reserve bank of the world. shery: we see improvement in economic data out of china. will that help keep the renminbi supported, or will the strength of the u.s. dollar offset that? what does it spell for the markets? ben: the chinese currency has been rather stable the last several weeks and months, even when the virus was centered in china itself in february. i think china even with the rate cut we have seen the last few days still has a fairly dramatic interest rate differential with the u.s. which suggests the chinese currency should remain rather stable. in terms of your broader normalization,na it is important for china itself in terms of the pmi picking up to suggest there is this
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normalization. people are returning to work. it is important for china, but it is in a way a postcard from the future. we think about economies like new zealand and other european countries looking to open up economies in the next weeks, china is a template for how quickly activity can normalize and give us a sense of the alphabet question, whether it will be you, -- it will be u, v, w or something else. it is alphabet soup when it comes to predicting the trajectory of the recovery. does that mean if we get a quicker and more robust and sustained recovery out of china, that there is more positive risk to the upside, particularly when it comes to emerging markets? we spoke about the stability in the yuan. if chinese assets continue to
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remain stable, that anchors em to a certain extent. ben: there is a couple of hopeful things. we touched on dollar liquidity. with the fed providing large quantities of dollar liquidity globally through those swap lines, that has an helpful. and china is doing better. there will be more stimulus to economyen as the normalizes we have had a couple of rate cuts. there will be fiscal stimulus to come. the commission of dollar liquidity and china recovery is quite constructive for emerging markets more broadly. so we are overweight emerging-market bonds in the local currency space and overweight asia extra bound equities. a large portion of that has to
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do with the recovery china because china has the scale, capacity and the will to bring about whatever it takes, whatever it takes for stimulus to get that economy back to more normal levels. in an environment where you see recession being priced in 100%, the imf saying activity everywhere is coming to a standstill and markets are bouncing back into bull territory, what is a contrarian view these days? ben: that is a tough question because it is extremely bleak in terms of economic activity, unemployment, going to see australia leader, but the global phenomenon, hundreds of millions of people have lost for a short time but i have lost. -- they have lost.
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he would think a constructive framework would be -- you would think a constructive framework would be contrarian. the blackrock institute, we have upgraded credit to overweight and we are overall neutral risk, but i guess generally -- gently making a more constructive term with upgrade to credit a couple of weeks ago. we are overweight global high yields. overweight emerging markets, local currency debt. i think they are still interesting given the concerns and reality of economic slowdown that is ongoing. appreciate your time. powell.
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oil is up in the first few hours of asian trade but still remaining under pressure despite the opec-plus deal. we are asking what is needed, what more is needed to drive the price up, at 18 year loans. we will be previewing the data with the westpac chief economist. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you are watching daybreak asia. we begin with the coronavirus. it has passed a grim new oil stone, global infections over 2 million. -- milestone, global infections over 2 million. the world health organization defends its work with china. it is promoting health globally and it will work with and for people everywhere, whether they are in china or anywhere else.
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president trump has announced plans for the task force to restart the economy, launching marathon calls. corporate leaders like jeff bezos are being asked for advice on how to bring the country back to something like normal. several of those involved only discovered their participation after the president announced their names. south korea seems to like president moon's handling of the virus. his ruling democratic party is set for a resounding victory, ining 180 over 300 seats parliament. his party is focused on testing. if the final results back up the exit polls, it is the worst time in many years his party has an outright majority. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mitchell.a
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this is bloomberg. trump ministration is considering paying u.s. oil drillers not to pump at all. that could mean compensation for companies to sit on 350 million barrels worth of reserves. along, been talking all for all of the focus on the opec-plus agreement, it doesn't mean a lot if we don't see reduction on the u.s. side. in terms of what is at play, pretty extraordinary, but we are in extraordinary times. >> we are. what the market has done, it is doing most of the rebalancing itself very it has come back to 20. 20 is the most widely traded price since the beginning of futures in 1983. hearing the trickle
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down. they are trying to reduce supply, but they are catching up to demand. we heard today demand should drop 9 million barrels a day. that is conservative. we should expect demand closer to 15% to 20%. the markets already adjusted. year, then 66% this worst in its history or the markets are stabilizing around $20 and it should be around this range for a long time. shery: what are we seeing in what are we seeing in terms of the glut across the u.s.? >> it is quite extreme. u.s. gasoline demand dropped almost 60%. that is short-term but it might not come back to where it was before. it might take a long time if ever because it was already in decline. gasoline demand in this country was flat over 20 years because
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of conservation and ev's and people don't use as much anymore. that is what is changing. before covid hit, the demand for since supply situation for crude oil was already bad. this will reduce u.s. production. within about a month supply will be backed up. crude oil is a big example of how bad this demand destruction is globally. that has not shown up in the stock market yet. shery: thank you. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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suggeststa from china most people with symptom-free sick,19 cases never get challenging earlier assumptions about how the disease develops. this is a puzzling feature of
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this virus, one of the key reasons why it spreads so fast and in so many places. spread so reason it far. the breakdown of asymptomatic's is in this country. what they have found according to the data, they look at 6764 people who had tested positive without showing symptoms. only 1/5 of them developed symptoms. some are being monitored. you are looking at 4500 people who have been discharged after recovering from the virus. earlier it was thought most patients who were not showing symptoms would end up developing those symptoms. symptom-free and that underscored the challenge
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of containing the pandemic. china is increasingly becoming a target of attack again by u.s. republicans over the handling of the crisis, what initially seemed to be a cover up. how is this in bilateral relations? coordinatedseeing a strategy by the republicans to shift the blame to china as trump faces criticism over what many say or his administration's failings and how they responded and the economic toll. we have seen the trump campaign has sent out a fundraising email that accused china of lying about the outbreak and saying the country must be held accountable. republicans are trying to introduce bills to make the chinese government liable in u.s. courts. democrats have been attacked by republicans and labeled as
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chinese actors. it looks like the trump campaign and the gdp -- gop are going back to the anti-china playbook used in 2016 because it pays -- place to the base. base.plays to the haidi: tom mackenzie with the latest. the founder of the world's largest hedge fund said more stimulus will be needed. bridgewater associates told bloomberg investors should steer clear of government debt for years to come. the 1930 1945like time, is one in which you would bonds.ty crazy to own what is a debt? -- it is a promise to receive currency.
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i think that changes the appeal of bonds. why would you hold that? that has a big effect. we think of how much will is in bonds, and where is that wealth going to go and how is that going to work and how will they control it, i have thoughts about that. what is a good store hold of that? it will be an important consideration. and that has to do with store hold of wealth. i thinkhink of that, what are the stable store holds of wealth in the form of stocks and other kinds of debt? i want those that have strong balance sheets, stable incomes and so on so that you are having this assets that will perform well in any environment and i
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will look at them based on how cheap or expensive they are. when i think of the world, i divide the world into different locations. this picture is very much like iod where we1990 per were flooding it with credit, but they are not getting to number of emerging countries. when i look at the distribution of wealth in terms of their balance sheets, i look at what is their income, what is their expenses, what is their savings, and it then changes. i don't want to be in places that don't have good ones. i look at civil behavior. is there going to be a fight? will that right, will people be
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orderly? what will be the changes in tax rules? will corporate taxes come back in certain ways? we are not going to deal with that equally. i am looking at all of that to create a picture of differentiation. i see a very differentiated world. when we talk about the economy coming back, you have to realize what big changes are that cannot be changed. self-sufficiency. i think we will produce different things. we will be self-sufficient. we operated in a world where we were globally connected and whoever was most efficient would get it. we would get wherever it was most sufficiently produced. that will not happen again. you will come to a world, produce it at home, then think about what do you need. we will be rebuilding our
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basics, health care systems, how much savings are we going to put into rebuilding some of those basics like basics of hospital, shortage -- our storage for the next epidemic and then climate change. this is the act of nature that hit us over the head, but there is other evolutionary costs that will come in the form of climate change. all of those things are important to imagine in imagining the new world order i think. associatesgewater deloo speaking to -- dallio. robin hood is raising new funds as $8 billion valuation. this is when they have suffered
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repeated outages during the markets' turmoil. we are hearing it is set to be raising $8 billion valuation according to people close to the matter. let's get a quick check of the business flash headlines. virgin australia shares are suspended in sydney as the discussions continue on restructuring. there could be more days of negotiations. the carrier has virtually halted all flights amid the pandemic and has been exploring options for additional capital for weeks. australian ton weather the storm. sunday is laying off -- that initially affected only production workers in hyundai employees 31,000 people in the u.s..
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white-collar staff in california will be furloughed first followed by workers elsewhere from this weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ daybreak: asia. a new report from the fed says the u.s. economy adopted a defensive mode as the coronavirus moved through the country, with economy activity contracting sharply. all-district report a highly uncertain outlook with most theng deterioration in coming months. this is based on evidence gathered by the 12 local branches. spain reported the largest rise of coronavirus cases in six days although the death toll has declined. 5000 new infections were confirmed, bringing the total close to 180,000.
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haseuropean commission drawn up plans for partial lifting of restrictions although germany will extend. the virus has all but destroyed does -- visitor travel to hong kong. there are tougher border restrictions. provisional numbers have slumped to 2600 a day from a year ago with arrivals from mainland china down 99.4%. the tourism board aims to have weekly data by april 29. by april 29.ata the measures include a ban on gatherings of more than five people and religious and social events and a mandatory wearing of masks. the government is ordering airlines to limit passengers to 50% of aircraft capacity to make
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air travel more expensive. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am. a mitchell. this is bloomberg. mitchell. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's get more with kathleen hays. imf policye recommendations we know of? kathleen: some of the most interesting things, the imf is coming up with recommendations for the poor nations to deal with the impact of the coronavirus crisis, but i was interested to see and hear what this person would say. he is the asia-pacific director at the imf, giving his presentation. asia, he saidn zero growth for asia this year,
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the worst in 60 years, worse than the financial crisis of 1998. the region as a whole, there is big headwinds. the real sector, manufacturing, services he said, were hit very hard by the containment measures. we know including china many countries, a lot of exports are manufactured goods. services have become a bigger part of the regional economy. asia is export driven. you have a global recession, the u.s. contracting, the eurozone contracting. you will get this export driven growth hit by the virus driven global slowdown. in to this with china's economy already in slowdown. china is the driver for the region and the world. this is another reason why he
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asia.ero growth for quite a prediction. pretty bad. shery: what is the imf recommending? this point, you need a full-blown, all-out response. he says you have got to support the health sector. you have got to make sure it is strong and on its feet. this is something people around the world are saying they need to do. he goes out of his way to say emerging-market central banks should use their balance sheet flexibly in the face of budget constraints. it seems to me he is saying you may not be the federal reserve, time when you can push the limits and do everything that needs to be done
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to keep credit flowing and money flowing to businesses and consumers. you can backstop that. he is urging emerging-market countries to take advantage of the bilateral and multilateral swap lines that are out there. the federal reserve showing it can't recently with the $60 billion -- its hand recently with the $60 billion available to indonesia. don't be shy. you will have to push up against budget constraints and weaker currency. he is urging everybody to pull out the stops and do what ever it takes. shery: thank you very much. imf coverage continues. we will speak with the aipac mission cheap in the next couple of hours. managing director christopher lena george abela joins us later.
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the debt relief for the poorest countries could amount to as much as $20 billion. he told us why the g20's move is necessary right now. >> what we have seen, swift actions by the g20 coordinate with imf and the world bank is unprecedented. togetherlone have put a global economy is not of $7 trillion u.s. so far. that means they are able to import from and move the economy .f other countries the imf support package has been ministersoday by the and governments of the g20. sufficient liquidity is available for poor countries, emerging economies, in addition to the front lines and reboots available through central banks that have been announced.
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david: we were talking about this move. let's come back to more specifics. an important part of this was to spend payments on sovereign debt . is this a restructuring? do you anticipate a longer-term restructuring? >> of course area while restructuring might take time for bilateral agreements to be put in place, we wanted to make sure we don't waste time. the g20 and saudi government have committed to a swift, strong, significant actions immediately. this will give us time and give the poor countries time to consider restraint -- scheduling even relief from the debt throughout the next three to six months we think will be needed to ensure we will close that
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chapter. we have a question i would like to ask you. the viewer asks if it is possible this crisis might be an opportunity to consider opening to foreign capital. is that on the table? >> absolutely. saudi capital markets have been relaxed the past three years. we have received significant investment from international investors. we will do whatever it takes to ensure that easier access to international investors in saudi markets. talk to a saudi arabia official without talking about oil. we had the global agreement to curtail production. do you anticipate more will need to be done? that is affecting the global
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economy as much as the coronavirus. significanthe agreement that has been reached as outlined the only throwback and opec plus agreement but also -- through opec and opec-plus agreement but also outside, signifies that the world is responsive, that we need to ensure markets is balanced as we have been doing for decades. the fact the g20 energy ministers had an extraordinary meeting couple of days back welcome that agreement and committed to ensuring market stability is key to face covid-19. we would consider whatever action is needed to make sure market balance is there. world -- we are watching the
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sectors that are most impacted and designing the solution [indiscernible] haidi: that was the saudi arabian finance minister speaking to us. getting breaking news on the china coronavirus numbers as the country continues to grapple with subsequent waves as the 64 aown has been lifted, symptomatic cases, no deaths nationally, but 46 new cases are 34 out of those reported in china were imported cases. imported cases. we will continue to watch that as the drift of the a symptomatic and imported cases continues to be an issue. let's look at the markets. u.s. index tutors extending losses this morning, dropping 1%
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with s&p 500 contracts after s&p stocks fell from the lowest -- highest level in about a month on the account of poor data and dismal earnings, kicking in reality for investors are you this is the asian session, the nikkei falling 1.7% for a second straight session lower. the yen sitting kind of steady but we had four days since march which was denting market sentiment for equities. the kospi, we have got news of a resounding victory for president moon. it is falling 4.3%. andlosses led by chipmakers carmakers. looking at australia, watching out for jobs numbers due out in this hour. lower banks and miners. we are watching the kiwi falling over as we continue to hear
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testimony from the government has been 35%ckdown of capacity and the kiwi is still on the table. this is bloomberg. ♪
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let's get a quick check of the latest business flash
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headlines. gopro has announced a restructuring plan that involves cost cuts and job losses. it will trim $100 million of operating expenses with another $250 million to come in 2021. it is losing more than 200 jobs and aims to reduce office space and to cut sales and marketing outlay. the company is withdrawing its guidance for the year and says --sees a loss of about 30 $.30 a share. amazon is holding operations and warehouses in france for five days after a court bandits sales of non-essential goods. deliveries are being suspended for monday after judges said the company is not doing enough to protect staff from covid-19. amazon has been given 20 hours to comply with a ruling to sell
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only essential items such as food and hygiene products and to upgrade its security measures. low 76,000to further 76,000 workers. all local factories at toshiba -- and toshiba headquarters will shut down until may 5. his call -- follows a call by the prime minister for japanese corporations to ask 70% of their staff to work from home. let's take a look at australia is march labor data coming out soon. likely to show impacts. the treasury has forecast the economic shock of the virus, hitting 10% in the june quarter leaving 1.4 million people
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potentially out of work. let's go back to bill evans. throw up this hopefully you can see it because taking a look at what we are expecting out of the initial impacts from the coronavirus lockdown, looking of course at hours worked as the key metric and looking at expectations of the participation rate being dampened. in terms of how useful this data is, most data points we are , it is at these days backward looking. can you anticipate how many of these jobs that are being put on ice, as scott morrison calls this, how many of these will actually return by the time we are out to other side of this pandemic? >> no, it is very much a forecasting game to work out how effective for instance will the
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job keeper policy be. before we saw that policy we had the unemployment rate at 7% by the end of june and would drift down to 10% by the end of the year. we expected the economy to rebound in december. with the job keeper policy we thought the peak would be 9% and the drift to 7% by the end of the year. job keeper policy is important. yesterday we released consumer sentiment. we asked a question about from the respondents about whether they had lost their job or been laid off without pay in the previous month. of the people that had jobs at the beginning of the month, 20% said that had happened to them. within that 20%, 7% had lost their jobs entirely. was stood down
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without pay. they will be absorbed into the workforce using the job keeper package as long as their employers have shown a 30% reduction in revenue. that is an important policy to hold down the unemployment rate. yeah, looking at the --sumer sentiment estimate, consumer survey, i have a question about the longer-term behavior because we have seen in the initial days and weeks of the lifting of the lockdown in china, consumer sentiment and behavior has seemed to have changed in the medium-term where people are not going out and are reluctant to go to shopping malls, cafes and mingle. is there the risk we see permanent changes to the way consumers behave even after we see an economic rebound?
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risk.t is the if i look at our growth forecast for the year, we have the theomy contracting 8.5% in june quarter, again in september and then rebounding 5% in december. is we expect the shutdowns to be eased and the question is how much will it will be subscribing to the isolation, the personal distancing policy? you might reopen a restaurant but it could only take half of the capacity from before. the shutdowns will be eased, but will the behavior of people change? shery: what sectors of the economy will see they will not be changed even after the
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outbreak? >> it will depend on which companies survive. that is why the john skipper package was important because it allowed businesses to keep workers. when the recovery and the shutdowns are eased, the businesses are in existence and are in existence and their workers are there. that is important. the sectors of the economy that are blamed most, not surprisingly restaurants, accommodation, parts of retail, recreation, those sectors, parts of the medical sector to much of museums, they are the ones that you want to keep your workers there so when demand recovers, you will be around. there will be a lot of businesses that won't get to the other end of that bridge. the capacity to boost recovery will be limited and we are looking for 5% recovery in growth.
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and for the economy to contract by 5%. that is a little less pessimistic than the imf which -- -6.7%.six shery: where do you see the aussie dollar going? it has seen a rebound, but the u.s. dollar also has strength. >> our view around the aussie dollar, three things drive it, interest rates, commodities and risk. risk will remain the key driver over the next three to four months. we expect as the massive stimulus that we have seen from the fed and from governments starts to appear in the rear vision mirror and the pain from the economic data starts to come through, the risk on we have been seeing will move back to
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risk off. we are expecting the aussie will over theto below $.60 next few months. it will start to assert its recovery by the end of the june quarter. we have a $.62 target. it is lower than the current level. it will be falling for most of the next few months as risk off becomes the more dominant thought. shery: always great talking to you. westpac chief economist. taiwan semiconductor gives investors a key health check of the tech industry later. we will tell you what to expect. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: this chipmaker will give a key health check on the industry amid the virus pandemic when it reports earnings later. our reporter joins us from taipei. chip mc, a major supplier for apple. how much does this matter? [no audio] line? ave you on the get with the latest on their
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earnings. [no audio] expecting their earnings to come out later. we will update you as soon as we can. let's get a quick check of the markets. we are seeing a bit of a mixed picture when it comes to asian markets, downside for the nikkei asx 200 --pi of the and the asx 200. the asx 200 -- nikkei is under pressure, 1.8%, despite the fact we are seeing japanese yen that has been weaker for the past two sessions. the kospi under pressure after coming back from election day holiday. the exit polls are showing the president's ruling democrat
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party -- democratic party is set for a stunning victory. .8% afteres are down s&p 500 fell from the one-month high. we had earnings and economic data showing the brutal impact of the coronavirus. offshore yuan holding steady. some big names coming up in terms of guests, from the very capital group, the partner and chairman. the founder and ceo of china renaissance with us as well. the director of aipac and the imf mission chief for korea to talk about the korean elections. great recession. that is it for daybreak: asia. we look ahead to the status -- start of trading in hong kong, shenzhen.
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china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?
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♪ >> welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." i'm selina wang. rishaad: the start of the open of trading in hong kong and mainland china. a look at our top stories. weak data compounds virus fears. milestone, 2 million infections and 30,000


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