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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  April 15, 2020 10:00pm-12:01am EDT

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oblique milestone, 2 million infections in more than 130,000 deaths. south korea seeming to like president moon's handling of the crisis. a rare outright majority at the polls. >> let's take a look at the markets, asia mostly lower, risk pretty much taken off the table overnight. uncertainty in company earnings, in thein oil, rebounding asian session. the imf forecasting the deepest recession since the depression. regionthe asia pac likely to see something that is not happen in the last 60 years. by 1.4%,i to 25 down down for a second day.
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the kospi back online after being shut yesterday. we know that president moon securing a big win, capitalizing on success and containing the pandemic. 100 taste -- 103 seats in parliament, ending a bull market yesterday. ahead of the earnings later today, the first earnings since the pandemic started. so a gauge of how the tech industry is doing. let's flip the page and take a look at currencies right now. the dollar index up, surging the most in weeks. weaker today. a question of why that haven like the yen is currently down. on risk aversion and the plunge and ore prices adding to the conscience. today, almostbers
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6000 jobs created. expectations were for a drop of 30,000. part-time jobs pretty much responsible for the jobs added. one.ooking at the rishaad: data from the u.s., retail sales and production numbers not for the faint hearted, cratering in march. saying businesses are increasingly concerned about even weaker conditions ahead. kathleen hays has been looking at wall all these figures are telling us about the impact of this pandemic. reports arenomic setting records for how bad they are, but the fear is it could get even weaker. kathleen: isn't that true? what a time we are living in, and how quickly it came down. 70% of u.s. economy, retail
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sales down nearly 9% in march, 8.7 percent is the biggest drop since 1992 when the commerce departed -- commerce department started collecting the data. people did spend a lot of money to eat and drink before the united states economy shut down., that's a apparel sales go down 50%. people who usually buy new spring close going into lockdown. restaurants and bars down, manufacturing down 5.4%. that's a biggest drop since 1946, the end of world war ii. jan that, let's look at april. manufacturing in new york state and homebuilder sentiment. down unthinkable amounts. sentiment at an eight year low. remember one more thing about
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retail sales, as bad as march was, stores were open for half of the month. april could be worse. the fed coming out with their beige book, it's seen as an early indicator. the same bleak economic story repeated. the belief that no sector was spared. kathleen: absolutely. the headline show the take away was that they found the economy contracting abruptly in the period for the six weeks through april 6. and expecting things to get even worse. march,the middle of state governor said you have to shelter-in-place. the atlanta fed saying businesses will faces survival crisis in may, saying what is now cash flow problem has become a solvency problem.
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that if youores start losing business, if you can't meet payroll, you start laying people off. we are waiting for jobless claims to come out, another 6 million person increase of people applying for new unemployment and if it's is what we can expect, according to bloomberg economics. china, alsorning to bracing for a new record for weakness like the u.s.. bracing for an epic drop in gdp. our global economics team points out it will probably be the worst since the economic reforms in china from the late 1970's. gdp was up 6% in the fourth quarter, what a difference a coronavirus outbreak can make. it could be down 11%. we are all waiting to see how this will look. there are three important
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numbers for the month of march, industrial production, property investments have been very weak. they estimate 90% of companies will be back to work. retail sales still probably on the weak side and even weaker because of self-imposed social distancing. what people are seeing in the united states and around the world, china has been practicing for a while. >> we cannot expect the same amount of stimulus in china. china will not bailout asia this time. haslinda: kathleen hays, thank
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you. let's get the first part headlines from new york. >> the coronavirus has passed another giant milestone was global infections now topping 2 million and deaths now it more than 130,000. the news comes as the world health organization rejects criticism from president trump and defends its work with china. the group says it's goal is to promote health globally and it will work with and for people everywhere, whether in china or anywhere else. always regaining some ground after falling to his lowest price in almost two decades. futures in york had dropped below $20 for the first time since 2002 as american gasoline demand dropped to its lowest level recorded history. president trump is considering paying u.s. producers to stop the drop inlleviate prices. a new study shows that president
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medicineuch touted does not work. study showed hydroxychloroquine work no better than standard health care and was more likely to trigger side effects. research has not been reviewed by western doctors, and more studies are on the way. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. rishaad: president moon enjoying a win in south korea's general election. his party. win for and later this hour will talk sovereign bonds, saying that policymakers have been more proactive on the coronavirus than they were in the national crisis. that's all on the way.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: a big win for president moon's ruling democratic party. according to the election commission website, his party has taken 180 seats in a rare outright majority. good to have you with us. off, taking into account how he has struggled to put the economy back on track. all, let me say that it is heartening to see how korea was able to hold its parliamentary actions and i think congratulations are in order for this achievement.
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facingse korea is important economic challenges. the current crisis like no other we have in recent memory. the economy will be negatively affected, for sure. at the same time we see the thanurn in korea is less other countries. the policy response so far has certainly played a role and certainly there is more to be done on forward. -- going forward. haslinda: do you see the stimulus implemented so far in korea going far enough in countering that slowdown? >> i think it is certainly going a good way. when we think about the slowdown in korea, there are two different channels. one is the impact that arises from the domestic measure seeking to stop the spread of
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ours and there is the impact from abroad, which has been very strong. it has been good in two ways. they have been able to control very quickly the first phase of the outbreak, and also their --ategy in general has been we've seen less production interruptions than other countries. in addition to that, the monetary measures that have been taken have clearly helped dampen the impact of this in general. in that sense, i think the measures that have been taken have been positive. we see a, of course fairly drawnout recovery and there's certainly room to support this recovery with more measures. with president moon
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getting that majority, it makes his political path that much easier. what more do they need to do? i think in terms of the response andealth the efforts to keep infection rates under control and avoid more outbreaks will remain on top of the task list for the government for some time. i think the efforts have to continue to help households withstand the temporary income and revenue shock that has come and it could create more lasting economic scars. this will be an important part of the agenda and has already been and will continue to be. we will probably see more measures, trying to provide more funding to help households pay
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for debt service and replenish the working capital. it's really important to set the stage for full recovery. there's also a bigger role for withacroeconomic policy the country getting back on track. , we know there is a good outlook with trading partners, toh an opportunity for korea get in with longer-range reforms and strengthened the domestic drivers of growth and diversify the exports. withhas a lot to do reinventing growth for the , may be coaxing more in some emerging industries .
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the policy support has been quite high in korea, from and mayng incumbents, for the out of the way state. these are reforms that would help feed confidence and help increase the medium-term growth potential, which is important for korea because the population the economic and speed of the economy is slowly falling. rishaad: how much can the korean example and the way they are dealing with this pandemic be useful for other countries as they deal with their own? well, i think the medical
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experts will be able to speak more to the specific medical response, but clearly i think the approach that korea had used , relying on testing, early isolation, contact tracing and technology also is something that might be interesting for other countries to look at, in part because it has allowed korea to continue to keep businesses open to a larger extent. in terms of the economic policy response, first of all i would say korea entered into the crisis with -- he goes back to the point that it's good to create that space in good times, so maybe it's one less obstacle going forward. the approach korea has chosen with technology to try to assist in a targeted way different segments of the financial market, i think it could provide
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some steps toward intervention. thank you very much for , joining us there from washington. we have to take a break, but on the other side, were looking at the pandemic and it has reached a grim milestone, 2 million people have now been infected. president trump sees the u.s. passing a peak. we have the latest on the outbreak, on the way next. ♪
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rishaad: the coronavirus outbreak has marked another grim milestone. we got 2 million cases now around the world. nevertheless, president trump says the u.s. is past the peak
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isnew cases and europe starting to draft plans to lift the lockdown. donald trump eager to reopen the economy, but will states and businesses actually follow? >> that's going to be the key question as he is set to unveil his reopening guidelines and relax the state home rules later on today. he mentioned they are past that plateau, they reach the plateau with 600,000 -- 620,000 people in the u.s.. say they urge him to ensure there was robust testing in place before they think people can be comfortable coming back to work. so it's not going to be like flipping a switch, people will still need to social distance. we did hear from your governor andrew cuomo saying wearing mask in public now is mandatory.
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different communities are different stages of the outbreak, opening up the calm -- the economy will very state-by-state, similar to what we are seeing in europe as well. haslinda: over in china, for the people are testing positive but are symptom-free. and it looks like most never fell ill. whone: of the 6700 people tested positive without symptoms, only 1/5 of them so far have developed symptoms. they have later been reclassified as confirmed cases. the whole phenomenon of asymptomatic transmission is becoming more of a troubling feature for chinese policymakers in the virus fight, which basically has allowed the pandemic to sprite -- to spread wider and faster and becomes a challenge containing the outbreak. this is where we see eye lateral tensions between china and the
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u.s. ramp up. the who has certainly been in the middle of that. lasting presidents trump -- president trump's move to pull fundin. -- pull its china continuingg. certainly were not out of the woods yet globally. you mentioned that 2 million mark. it took us four months to get to one million, and only 12 days to get that number to double to 2 million. it just goes to show how fast things have moved in the last couple of days. haslinda is in singapore, -- it's about foreign domestic workers in? ? these dormitories, isn't it indonesia expanding its martial law there. what do we know? yvonne called in singapore reported a record number of fresh infections, 440 seven new
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cases on wednesday. 90% of which were tied to these migrant workers who live in close quarters. according to our data, workers in 20 of these dorms have already been affected by this virus outbreak. this is as we have seen the rest of the city state in singapore actually appear to be stabilizing. singapore saw zero imported cases in the last several days. local transmission to the storms remains the key challenge right now for singapore. you mentioned indonesia, they are expanding that partial lockdown to areas near jakarta as well, impacting 34 million people. the president ordering airlines to limit the number of passengers to 50% capacity now, to make sure that travel is more expensive. the government is also open to banning people to -- from traveling during the end of ramadan, busy, -- a busy time in
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the country. so more travel restrictions there. yvonne man, thank you. be sure to check out our mapping tool at map virus go. get visual insight on the developing pandemic story. virgin australia shares are suspended in sydney as discussions continue over a potential restructuring. negotiations go on. the carrier has halted virtually all flights amid the coronavirus pandemic and has been exploring options for additional capital for weeks. toshiba to furlough 76,000
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workers in japan, in an attempt to halt the spread of the coronavirus. thel factors in headquarters will shut down through may 26. it follows a call for japanese corporations to ask 70% of staff to work from home. google is pausing recruitment for the rest of the year. the pace of hiring will slow although those already picked up will be able to start work. employees are working from home and the company is covering pay and benefits and has not announced any job losses. alphabet had more than 19,000 full-time workers. this is how it is looking in tokyo this thursday.
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a risk on day, the nikkei to 25 down, but in line with the rest of the region. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it's 10 29 time p.m. in new york. south korea's president moon's handling of the coronavirus, his ruling democratic party won a decisive election victory, taking 180 of the 300 seats in parliament. his approval ratings have risen and earned widespread applause. the first time in 12 years his party has enjoyed an outright majority in parliament. india's planning to ease virus restrictions, i.t. hardware companies, farmers and rural
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industries will be allowed to resume work as a government tries to exit the biggest lockdown in the world. the restriction have been extended to may 3 and ministers will live curbs and allow movement of goods from ports and airports. launching marathon calls with business and health leaders instead. corporate figures are being asked for advice on how to bring the country back to something like normal after the pandemic. several of those involved say they only discover their participation after the president announced their names. an average daily arrivals and hong kong have fallen this month. provisional arrival nobles for march -- numbers for march slumped with arrivals for mainland china down 99 point 4%.
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the tourism board aims to have complete data by april 20 nine. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. >> let's do a check on the markets right now. it is risk off the table this thursday. bad news especially on the ego front. u.s. manufacturing and homebuilding numbers suggesting a possible severe global recession. the imf warning of the deepest slowdown since the depression and we are waiting for u.s. jobs numbers throughout friday. possible. 20% jump is take a look at where the -- take a look at the shanghai composite index. it is flat right now.
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month on month, it was better than february. the imf says growth in china will decelerate, but it will leak out about 1.2% in terms of expansion. lower for arending second day with severe pressure on the index. taking a look at oil plays and that slump in oil prices we saw yesterday, we have oil rebounding in asia today. energy indexfic down about .7%. good.oking toldewater associates bloomberg best investors could be crazy to hold government bonds now, because the amount of
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required by banks to rescue the economy. let's get more on the outlook of sovereign bonds. do you agree? in the fixed income business, so i would have a slightly different opinion on that because, frankly, the kind of question i would pose back to you or to ray, what else would you buy? equities or some other risk asset in this kind of environment? at the end of the day, the liquidity that you get from the bond markets is the last game in town here. we are still oriented towards bonds, and as far as asian bonds go, we are focused mostly on the belly of the curve to avoid some of the supply risks on the long and that capitalize on our
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expectation of rate cuts. quickly the picture you have painted, what are bonds actually with thend then -- >> picture you have painted, what are bonds actually pricing in then? hello? we seem to have a technical issue there. we are trying to get him back for you. we will try to find out what is going on with his view as to what has been baked into the current position to be financed with sovereign bonds. that is where we are with that, just going back to what is going on with regards to equity markets and beyond -- there you go, good to see sovereign bonds. ,he yield on the aussie, .844% looking at 1.08% yield on the new zealand, looking at 10-year
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there is we had those measures take place at something like $14 million, could have an effect on the loan prime rate, which is out on monday. two .5% yield on the china tent-year currently. that is where we find ourselves. let's get you back to her guest if we can. if you are with me still, i just want to get a sense of what you think has been baked into the sovereign notes. certainly, at the front end, the market is pricing and more rate cuts. across large parts of the world. abouts some concern supply risks, obviously. more quantitative easing and more bond supply, and that has pushed up yields on the long and. so i think those concerns will .inger in a lot of places
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>> there is so much data out there and so much data coming up for the rest of the week. in fact, for the next few weeks. what is the most important data for the bond market? china growthe number is coming out tomorrow among other things, which will be very critical to watch. our base case is for the first to be agrowth numbers lot worse than what bloomberg consensus is expecting at the moment. the bloomberg consensus is only at -6%, but given the faile-digit declines in industry production and retail sales, i suspect we will get something closer to -8% or even -10%, and i think that is the ball rolling on the front for more aggressive easing out of a bigoc and perhaps even fiscal push. what we have seen so far is in the combat against
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covid-19-induced slowdown, they have brought a knife, slipping rates here and there. we need to see deeper cuts. we see -- we need to see a benchmark composite rate cut, and you are not going to get that if you are simply going to cut the mlf rate and the lpr rate here and there. when he deeper cuts, more rrr cuts, and i think that will sink in after the growth numbers we get tomorrow. em bonds,u look at they look to be trading at really distressed levels. worst, andeen the how susceptible are they? credits which don't have a funding plan for large and expensive deficits need to clarify how they are going to close the gaps on some
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of these fronts. just saying that the central bank is a funder of last resort is a necessary but insufficient condition for instilling confidence for investors. for instance, a key concern is -- to what degree will monetization track be utilized for repaying external obligations? insofar as that uncertainty , investor apathy or aversion toward some of these bonds may persist. that is a key concern as far as local markets go. on the external front as far as the dollar bond markets are concerned, the key risk is the degree to which reserves are unbound or net debt positions pick up and some of the gulf arab countries and that sort of thing.
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>> it is about transmission, isn't it, ultimately? transmission problems in small and medium-size companies, but look at that in the left program announced yesterday by the pboc. to question is does it get where it needs to be ultimately? >> even if it does, $14 billion is simply too small. we need to add an extra zero at the end of that number, and i think that is what we have not been getting so far from the chinese as yet. you very much for that. , as the big banks face even bigger hits to their bottom tradingere could be debts delivering much-needed relief. wall street traders notch their
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best quarter in 18 years. ♪
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>> welcome back. shares of the largest u.s. bank dropped again at think of america. citigroup and goldman reported mixed impact on earnings, but a big trend is emerging -- trading desks are helping to salvage
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profit. this was especially true for goldman, which saw ratings soar. to say welldless above expectations. managed to offset a lot of the damage, and it followed the record trading revenue we saw with all the volatility during the most recent weeks. andou check out the chart the way a lot of the bank stocks ended the day, while goldman ended on a high compared to bank of america and citigroup, it had been down as much as 5% earlier in the session as it recorded $900 million
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>> [indiscernible] what is likely to be the story? >> the story with morgan stanley is that the revenue had a strong start to the year in terms of wealth assets and equities. also, the first quarter did .tart to stabilize a lot of analysts will be focusing on what their trading share will be and what their revenues were. i should point out again what really came through in this was tradinguarter debts across the industry. u.s. reallye the had a tough time, the trade only added to seller woes. >> thank you. coming indian markets setting up for their open. a little more than an hour to
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go. stocks the ones to watch here. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are back. president trump saying the united states may have passed the peak on new virus cases, but that's not the view being held by some medical experts.
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with someone who says it will be several months before things return to normal. >> i think it is a little too early to say if it is fully cresting or not. we are seeing a slowdown in the number of increasing cases. i don't think we have peaked that curve yet, but we are starting to see slowdowns in volume. all the more reason to protect the measures in place like social distancing, to make sure those volumes don't spike right back up in the early second quarter and go back to normal. >> that is certainly what i see in the fancy exponential charts as well, exactly as you just described it. so much of that is done on a moving average where professionals like you and on professionals like me or even the president of the united states have to use a number of days or weeks or months and blend it together to really see
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the ebb. how long is that moving average? what is the appropriate length of time for you to gauge? >> i think it is changing every day, and i think we are just starting to learn more information about this virus and how it behaves with people. the key is not to make an assumption way too early, right? two weeks is really the minimum to start to understand the data. you want to look at it two weeks out, so i think we are several months before we can really go back to or go towards planning to reopen and go back to normal. >> how quickly will we get a vaccination against the pandemic? >> there's a lot of really good candidates coming up right now. i think we are seeing estimates from scientists somewhere months,three and 12
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which is unbelievable for vaccine science. it is really fast, so it's exciting to see all this progress being made. realistically, a vaccine that's ready to go out to the general public is about a year away, but we could start seeing candidates that could be used to protect frontline health workers and first responders earlier, probably. what is the biggest challenge right now? questionsa number of about a some to medicate is. until you find out about them, it is hard to get a handle, but also immunity. how close are we to understanding if people that had it can go back safely to work? >> yeah, there's a lot of work being done in that immunity question right now, and because we are so early in the outbreak, we have to see if people with immune responses stay over time and also when people are ready to go back to work without having symptoms.
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the biggest challenge i see right now is testing. still trying to ramp up testing in a meaningful way and that is what every single other public health measure centers around, all the things we want to use to get back to work, to alleviate social distancing, to be able to travel, to reduce mask use. >> thank you so much for bringing that up. what is the constraint on getting more testing done? is a little bit of a supply issue and a lot of a coordination issue, making sure test are in the right place so people have the ability to scale up and test all they need to, that you continue to get the materials and you have people to run the test. >> that was johns hopkins university's lawrence our -- lauren sauer. let's take a look at the is and
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is flash headlines. lay off thousands of salaried u.s. employees and support staff, expanding cost-cutting measures that initially affected only production lines. honda says the pandemic is stopping buyers from purchasing new vehicles. white-collar staff in california will be followed by workers elsewhere probably this weekend. car sales and china have risen for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak with drivers buying an average 73,400 vehicles a day last week, up 14% from a year ago, but still down 12% for the first few weeks of april. the head of the china passenger car association says the market is recovering but does not expect the world's biggest auto markets to stabilize until at least july. china's beleaguered hna group -- the heavily indebted
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conglomerate announced support to extend local nodes worth around $35 million wednesday for another year. bondholders were given just half an hour by the government to make their conditions. get to the start of the session over in mumbai, let's get to the financial capital of the country and get to the equities. things looking for markets there? >> i think we are in for a very volatile session, which is in for a lot of drag. economists are seeing the first contraction for asia's third-largest economy. from april 20 onward, we are --o moving toward
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[indiscernible] that is a key thing to worry about for the market and earnings as well. >> it is all about earnings. >> asia's largest software exporter, to preserve that is extremely important right now. the estimate we have seen is declining and fixed margins, but the key focus is to be on what is the commentary about what is .appening going forward will there be price and cut -- pricing cuts, price climbs? how will this affect them long-term?
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there such a large organization employing hundreds of thousands of people, so they would be very important earnings to watch out for today. dumpingof companies are their guidance. that is a global phenomenon, but how is it affecting sentiment? what are people looking at in particular? what are volumes like? etc., etc. >> volume has been impacted a little bit given that most companies and employees and traders and investors are working from home. given that alternating high on the market, and a lot of people who would like to stay off the sidelines as of now. it has hit us around mid-march and now started showing up -- we cases, so a surge in we are still trying to grapple with how we manage the crisis
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with unlimited infrastructure, so this is an evolving situation right now. you very much indeed for that, joining us from mumbai where he is a markets reporter. at the moment, it we are seeing a decline in this neck of the woods, 1.2% to the downside, looking here at what else is going on. shanghai comp in anticipation of that avalanche of data coming up friday. gdp very much anticipated, bracing for a negative number. indeed, contraction for the economy there. we also have industrial production numbers, retail sales to look forward to. earlier today, we had house price numbers as well. we did show a slight uptick, it is a bit of a surprise. asian stocks are down.
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one of the reasons we are seeing that is not just a close in new york also down to futures contracts in the moment, suggesting negatives on the session. that is currently where we find ourselves at the moment. attract on the type in particular, and also, entering the bull market yesterday, the first earnings since the pandemic. investors want to know a couple how the u.s. is handling restrictions on huawei. chipmakers account for a quarter.
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southeast asian stocks being impacted by all the negative sentiment. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ 11:00 in the lion city, eight: 30 a.m. in mumbai. rishaad: we are entering the last hour of the morning session right here in hong kong. data really u.s. worrying investors. retail sales and output falling off a cliff last month and there are growing concerns about even
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worse numbers on the way. that's a look at the asian stocks declining us the gloom compounds virus fears. the pandemic marking a bleak milestone, 2 million infections and more than 130,000 deaths, but how is korea liking president moon's handling of the crisis? majority.right this is bloomberg markets. the asianjitters in markets. we have the asian book putting much dampening sentiment, highlighting economic difficulties faced by businesses and uncertainties in the coming months. and asia, financial stocks getting a hit, under a lot of pressure, down more than 1% as a whole after gold got a hit from the pandemic. to the america adding
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list. the nikkei 25 currently down. in australia, the asx also lower, down by 1.3%. all sectors lower except consumer staples. banks and miners, not surprisingly, way down. take a look at how oil is trading in asia. oil rebounding after touching its lowest since two thousand two. crude coming up by 1.6%. the iga saying global oil demand slumping a record 9% this year due to the lockdown. that cancels out opec's intended output cut. .pril will be the worst month we have gold remaining at seven-year highs, currently up about .1%. gold back in favor on recession
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risks. dalio saying forget about holding cash, by some gold. also one to watch, though currently down about .5%. rishaad: we have a nifty pointing to the downside. a look at some of the key stocks, wood pro amongst them, the i.t. services company with a fall in revenue, but it is what is in the pipeline, which is what is really including what they see and they did not see anything, so they have dumped their practice of providing quarterly guidance, and that replicated elsewhere as well. still a moody review for that, toward downgrade. focus, too.much and this is what we have now. let's move things along and have a look at some of those other
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asset classes. the rupee seeing a little bit of weakness come through. i should really say some dollar strength coming through. for a dollar. 10-year yield, seeing a fallback of about seven basis points on the guild at least. york.get you to new news is really sobering. the coronavirus has reached perhaps another grim milestone with global infections topping 2 million. the news comes as they world health organization rejects criticism from president trump and defends its work with china. is tooup says its mandate help globally and it will work people and help everywhere, if they are in china or somewhere else. to activatebegan
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their incident management symptoms on january 6 into the next number of weeks, we have produced multiple updates to countries including briefing multiple governments, multiple scientists around the world on the developing situation. >> south korea appears to like president moon's handling of the coronavirus. the makati party has won an overwhelming victory. moon's approval ratings have risen. it is the first time in 12 years the party has enjoyed an outright majority in parliament. meanwhile, spain has reported the largest highs and coronavirus cases in six days, though the daily death toll has declined. more than 5000 new infections were confirmed wednesday, taking total growth from 180,000 while fatalities roastery 18,500. the european commission has drawn up plans for a partial lifting of restrictions,
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although germany is set to extend its curve and the viral has all but destroyed visitor travel to hong kong. average daily arrivals have fallen below 100 people this traveling the fear of in border restrictions. provisional numbers through march up by more than 96% to 2600 a day from a year ago with arrivals from mainland china down 99.4%. the tourism board aims to have complete data by april 20 nine. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 20 700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. retail sales and industrial production cratered in march, and the federal reserve beige book shows businesses worried about even weaker conditions ahead. our global economics and policy editor, kathleen hays, has been looking at what the numbers say about the coronavirus's impact. the question really is -- how low can the u.s. economy go?
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we will try to reconnect with kathleen hays, our global economics editor later. we will go for a short break. coming up, elections and south korea. president moon and his ruling .arty look to build we will discuss the political and economic implications, but , investors brace for more
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dire data from the world's two biggest economies. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. the scale of the recovery and china will be laid bare friday. data is expected to show an historic slump. the media looking for a 6% fall in the first three months of the year. our next guest, though, sees a 3.4 percent drop. let's bring in the head of market strategy at united markets bank in singapore. you are more upbeat than the market consensus. why is that? >> morning, haslinda. i will be honest. every time we update our numbers for china, we push the gdp
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forecast a little bit lower. you are right that we are -3.4% for the first quarter. that is a little more than the street, but i think we have to look at the year as a whole, meaning 2020 crossing into 2021. for example, if you look at our 2021 numbers, you see a slight recovery back to the -- how should i say? long-term growth path around 5% or 6% for chinese gdp and that is very conservative if you compare that with what the imf has. if you look at the imf numbers that were out just the day , we were looking at a jump for 2021, and that is way above the 5% or 6% average growth. 20 tos we got a look at
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21 to see how things go. haslinda: china has been adding liquidity gradually versus what is being done by the fed. when china added liquidity to the banking system yesterday, the markets pretty much brushed it off. what is needed to move the markets? >> the pboc has been very -- what is the were to use? [indiscernible] in its monetary policy compared to the fed. there's a sense of them trying to pick up the pace of liquidity . they cut rates, but it was just a 20 basis point cut. a bit of an increase, but i guess the market wants to more concertedt
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easing from the pboc, and that is what is happening. perhaps the pboc is trying to time the recovery and financial meaning more confidence the economy is coming out well after the lockdown. perhaps they will grow a bit clearer in terms of easing measures, but for now, it is still very disciplined, very surgical. it is earnings season. the numbers have been pretty ugly. some companies have decided to do away with guidance. should investors just forget about the earnings season, perhaps focus on the third and fourth quarters beyond?
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>> everyone is looking at the tsmc numbers this afternoon. i think the big thing everybody the sector iss basically credit losses and job losses. we need to have confidence over companies arethat give the cashlly flows and basically refrain from cutting jobs and more importantly, that no ugly surprises, as you say, in terms of write-downs. i think yes, you are right. we need to ride off the first and second quarter, but over the near-term, the credit numbers will be very, very important because going forward, we don't want any ugly surprises in terms of write-downs. rishaad: the imf came out with
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its analysis, talking about the situation globally, perhaps the worst since the great depression, if not even worse than that. in their worst case scenario, they are imagining a second wave of all this in 2021, so next year. contract ising a set in motion, and a nonlinear response of financial markets. that is essentially parlance for default and panic. beenu think it would have far too -- how can i say -- sanguine? >> our forecast is this. the markets are a little bit too sanguine, as you say, in terms of how things will work out over the medium-term. if you look at our forecast, our base case is basically a 55%
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chance of a u shape, but more important we, we have a 25% chance of a worst-case dell-shaped recovery -- l-shaped recovery. the concern on everybody's mind is the economy will take repeated hits in terms of the rolling lockdowns around the world. perhaps the risk is you have a wobbling w-shaped recovery or a little bit of a recovery and economies are forced into lockdowns and then can get pushed back again and this on/off fight will go on for a few quarters. that is the risk that may be materializing in the months that, but we hope
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eventually you get a recovery earlier than later. that will solve a lot of issues. rishaad: a university of london professor said until we get a vaccine, all bets are off. what has been your take from the banking earnings we have had out , and how much far of the bad news they've been talking about will be reflected in global financial industry earnings? >> if you look at the risk metrics set, all of us banks look at more broadly in two groups, one is the immediate u.s. dollar funding crunch. you agree that for banks and corporate select, that has been banks.naged by the u.s. dollarseeds on the short term will be taken care of for now. going forward, for most banks,
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as with all slowdowns, as with all recessions, the big worry is credit. weakerh yield, the vanishing, and that's a very clear signal that all banks are looking out for from that part of the world, and that will be something that will take a much longer term over the next few quarters to fix. rishaad: i could not agree with you more. global banks after the global financial crisis were meant to be much, much stronger, but were never stress tested for an incident or an epidemic or pandemic like this. the risk is that they become amplified in the situation. the downturn means they batten
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down the hatches or that they pull back and what happens is the real economy is starved of credit. >> in this case, the good thing is if you look at asia specifically, what we can see on banks are much better set on a capital basis than before, given the stringent regulatory rules, and more importantly, the central banks across the region, if it's singapore, malaysia, everywhere they've seen a loss of financial capital for banks. this is as much as the regulators can do. hopefully, it will buy us a bit more time so that at least credit will keep open and help regainflow to the losses. haslinda: i want to touch on oil. it went below $20 a barrel
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yesterday before rebounding and asian trade. can risk assets, especially those in equities, withstand lower oil prices? a very painful topic for those of us in the .ommodities space to block oil price against long-term inflation expectations, this is a problem. basically, your long-term inflation expectations, if it's for the u.s. or asia, every economy will be very, very weak and for lack of a better word, deflationary in the next one or two years. because ifajor issue prices stay low, they will not
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bounce back over the commodities space and credit issues will surface. thisst have to deal with deflation environment. it is not easy, but again, let's see where we go from there, but over the near-term, we have to respect that. haslinda: thank you for your insight. plenty more to come. global coronavirus infections pass a grim milestone, but some of the hardest hit regions are starting to see a glimmer of hope. details just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: the coronavirus outbreak has marked another grim milestone, reaching 2 million cases around the world.
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however, president trump says the u.s. has passed a peak in new cases, and europe is planned to drop lockdowns. president trump eager to reopen the economy. the question really is if states and businesses will follow. still unclear, some reopeningn guidelines and relaxing those stay-at-home rules later on today. u.s. cases mentioned have reached a peak, six hundred 50,000 have been affected. the 2 million mark you just mentioned globally, it took four months to get to one million. only 12 days for that number to double to 2 million, so any type of lifting of restrictions, if it's in the u.s. or europe, it is going to be something that stays in for sure, and trump has a marathon of calls with company
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sources have pressed trump to reopen the economy, but they also urged him to make sure there was the best testing or else people would not be comfortable coming back to work. it will not be flipping a switch. we will still need to social distance. new york governor andrew cuomo said ordering people to wear masks in public, and given that different communities are at different stages of the outbreak, opening back up the economy will probably vary from state to state, similar to what we are seeing in europe. rishaad: we've had criticism of president trump's move to pull who funding from lots of quarters including beijing. what did they have to say? alexia, we have seen bilateral tensions between the u.s. and china escalate with the who seemingly in the middle. what we heard from beijing was
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really a blessing of what president trump did to pull who funding. they say the u.s. decision will weaken the who's capabilities and undermine international cooperation. china themselves saying they will continue to pledge their support to the agency, but you continue to see that tension as both sides try to switch or put blame on this virus as well. also, i think china for the first time released data of people testing positive but symptom-free, and they saw that a majority of those cases, most never fall sick. that they6700 or so tested without symptoms, only 1/5 have so far developed symptoms and have been reclassified as confirmed cases, so this phenomenon of a some dramatic transmission, just another troubling feature of the virus. it is becoming a challenge for policymakers in china to contain the outbreak.
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rishaad: singapore, they have a real problem with these dormitories, haven't they? where workers live. that is causing numbers to really get out of control to some extent. what about indonesia as well? they are expanding their partial lockdown, too. give us a sense of what is happening. >> you mentioned the record number of cases in a day. tied tohose cases were these facilities where these migrant workers live and these close quarters. singapore reported zero imported cases in the last several days. local transmission in dorms is a real challenge now. you mentioned indonesia also expanding its partial lockdown to areas near nick carter, impacting 34 million people now.
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thanks. be sure to check out bloomberg's enhanced mapping tool. you cannot only see the latest figures and trends, but track exposure and get visual insights on -- ♪
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haslinda: you're looking at live pictures of the lion city. we are in the middle of the trading day. fallout hitting singapore home sales. sales fell 32% last month. to arty markets could come standstill. singapore, as you know, has shut
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workplaces, schools, and is struggling with containment. havesales, by the way, been slammed, down almost 90%. some of those losses, currently flat. let's get a check of those headlines in new york. hasna: president trump dropped plans to restart a task force, launching marathon calls with business leaders instead. corporate leaders are being asked for advice on how to bring the country back to something like normal after the pandemic. several of those involved say they only discover their participation after the president announced their names. meanwhile, india is planning to ease virus restrictions next week to reboot its stalling economy. topanies will be allowed resume work as the government
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tries to exit the biggest lockdown in the world. .estrictions have been extended ministers will allow the movement of goods from ports and airports. indonesia has expanded its virus lockdown around jakarta to more than 34 million people ahead of ramadan, due to start at the end of next week. the measures include a ban on gathering for more than five people at religious and social events and a mandatory wearing of masks. the government is also ordering airlines to limit passengers to 50% of aircraft capacity to make expensive. and oil is regaining ground after falling to its lowest price in more than two decades. futures in new york had dropped below $20 for the first time since 2002 has american gasoline dropped to its lowest level in recorded history. u.s. suppliers reported their biggest ever weekly drop. president trump is considering paying u.s. producers to stop
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pumping to alleviate the glut. israel's arrival leaders have failed to reach a power-sharing deal by the midnight deadline, making a fourth election in a little over a year more likely. prime minister benjamin netanyahu and opposition leader benny gantz decided not to ask the prime minister for more not -- for more time, and lawmakers may not be tasked with finding someone who can put a workable government together. news on air and on quicktake powered by more than 1200 journalists and -- powered by more than 270 journalists and more than 120 countries. rishaad: political events where president moon's ruling party scored a landslide election, all held in the throes of this pandemic and perhaps an argument signaling to global leaders that a strong response to the virus
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can translate into votes. thank you for joining us. was it a case of president moon winning this election or the opposition actually losing it? >> good morning. yes, again, as you said, yesterday's election turned out to be a landslide victory for the ruling camp, which is the democratic party. yesterday's election was quite unique, given the fact that it took place virtually in the middle of a pandemic and south korea. the situation is ongoing and korea, but still we are dealing with the situation. that said, the election took ande quite smoothly officially yesterday. rishaad: was it a week
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opposition? they were skeptical of president moon's response to the pandemic, and that perhaps did not cut it for the rest of the population, did it? >> exactly, exactly. when the election started about two months ago, the landscape seemed to be favorable for the opposition party, but over time, it turned out the government is dealing with the situation , andtively and efficiently it affected the minds of the general public at polling booths , so that, i believe, has translated into a landslide , atory for the ruling camp historic victory for the ruling camp and 24 years. rishaad: the thing is, this landslide, as you put it, does not free up the president to get legislation through. in your view, does he have the right policies to deal with what
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is going on the ground they are onietally -- what is going on the ground there, both societally and economically? with a majority in the national assembly, now the president has the momentum to push ahead with his reform agenda during the remainder of ,is term, but at the same time the economy is a big question mark in korea. just yesterday, they said korea will register miners 1.2% annual growth, which is the first time is22 years, so the recession along the horizon. and the question is how the president will take advantage of the momentum and a way that can revive the economy, so i think he will continue on his reform agenda, but i think there will
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be many changes in the specific economic policies and many sectors of the economy of korea. haslinda: what kind of changes are you anticipating then? prior to the election, he was grappling with issues like jobs as well as political scandals. how far will he address all these issues to maintain the kind of ratings he has right now, which is about 55%? well, yes, there are many waiting for discussion at the national assembly and inside the administration. for instance, the issue of the minimum wage increase. that probably will be a hallmark issue for the current administration. they will continue with a plan or agenda, but i think the pace
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of the increase will slow down going forward, and also, there are a couple of issues that seem to hamper development of new technology. those issues will be handled by the new assembly and by the current administration in a way that is more business-friendly environment, so to speak, to the korean industries and businesses for the time being. confidence domuch you have and president moon's government? >> [laughter] people responded with a resounding voice yesterday, so, as many people say in the situation of emergency or in the situation of national emergency, i think people tend to support the current government because it
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seems to be a way to ensure stability for the national economy. haslinda: when you look at the like the one,far for instance, among the worst performing currencies and all of asia, when do you see a recovery slipping through to the economy? could korea leave the recovery in asia? lead the recovery in asia? >> i think the whole situation is now quite unclear. i think, as i said, the government will make best efforts to revive the economy, but because of the unique nature of the pandemic, i think it is way different from the previous economic crisis for korea in 1998 or 2008, but this time, the pandemic crisis is basically shutting down the whole business activity in korea, so i think it is really difficult to expect
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real returns in the near future. on the one hand, government and business sectors will make best efforts to rebound the economy, but i think it will take a long, long time for korea to recover. anticularly because korea is export trade economy, and now the whole world economy is going down, i think economic performance, particularly export performance, will be severely affected by the outside situation. rishaad: with the noise surrounding this pandemic, drowning out other very important things, how much talk has there been about what is going on in north korea at the moment? that is the big unknown, and what have we been hearing about what that country has been doing? >> right, right.
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as you know, the north korean issue has been always the most important issue in south korea, and usually that topic should have dominated any election, including yesterday's election, but again, it turned out that all issues were overshadowed by .he pandemic north korean issues and korea and japan diplomatic tensions, all other regional, political issues were basically out shadowed or washed away by the comprehensive and unprecedented korea -- the virus pandemic and korea. by all accounts, yesterday's election was very unique in in termsissues posed of how people responded, in terms of, again, how the election actually was conducted.
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rishaad: because you have the incumbent party winning, does that mean we have the status quo when it comes to the diplomatic and trade route going on with japan at the moment, or are there any signs of there being a fall there? to predict,is hard but i think that is a safe assumption for now. i think basically, on the diplomatic front with respect to china, with respect to north korea, and with respect to more importantly, japan, the current diplomatic course or policy decisions will stay on the .urrent course that seems to be the way for the administration, at least for the time being. that seems to be the diplomatic maneuvering for the administration until the remainder of the term, which remains for two more years for his presidency.
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haslinda: we have seen korea being saddled with political scandals. how can president moon address the issue? , this is my take -- i guess there are a couple of important political scandals and korean society and politics and those issues still remain. they did not go away despite the results of yesterday's election, so the controversy will continue, but again, given the simple majority -- with a simple ministry, ithe think for the time being, the leverage has important
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or important wherewithal to push ahead with his political agenda despiteomic agenda political scandals in korean politics. >> we thank you for your insights today. some like goldman sachs are finding their trading desks helping to salvage profit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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athaad: let's have a look what is going on. we have the indian trading day nearly upon us. the futures contract earlier suggesting we would have a negative start and that is exactly what we have. just a little bit weaker currently. we have a lot of equities to be watching out for here. one company saying they will not be giving normal quarterly guidance. we are seeing them declining 3.5% in premarket. that is what we have, the price market at jeffries has been lowered. not a big, big move.
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just refraining from predicting what revenue is going to be like at its software services building. there you go, adding tracks to the overall indian market. haslinda: earnings galore as shares of the largest u.s. banks drop again as bank of america, citigroup, and goldman reported the pandemic's impact on earnings, but a big trend is emerging. trading desks are helping salvage profit. this was especially true for goldman which saw its trading sore. >> that offset a lot of damage. this on the record trading
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revenues we saw from j.p. morgan chase. goldman ended the day -- [inaudible] let's listen to what the ceo of goldman had to say about the future. rishaad: let's move things along and have a look at what else is moving. we've got bridgewater associates saying the virus pandemic will force a new order and could cost the world economy trillions of dollars. the cochairman and the co-ceo's ray dalio, i'm sure you have all heard of him. he told us that u.s. stimulus measures so far are actually
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appropriate, but the thing is he says more will be needed. >> the holes to income in the united states we estimate somewhere in the vicinity of $5 trillion in the hole in the world economy is probably somewhere in the vicinity of $20 trillion, and we look at particularly who has what holes and how they will be filled. the economy as a result of this, so the real economy, which is good services production, and the world over the next year, will probably have a hole of maybe 4% or 5%, which is a bigger -- this is a bigger event that the 2008 financial crisis, theit is most comparable to 1930 to 1945 period of time in terms of, you know, the size of
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the hole. and then we will adapt. one of the great things about the greatest force in humanity and the greatest force in humanity is the capacity of humans to adapt and change the way they are doing things. we are doing that right now, and the'm pretty confident that inventiveness, the adaptation will bring us to a new way of operating, and let's say if you there willecline -- be a peak to trough decline of somewhere in that magnitude, but we will get past that, but it will be a total new world order. the world will not resemble the world where you sue. it's going to change in various ways, so it is a big hole. it's not an unsustainable hole because the capacity of
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producing money and credit is unlimited. it means we have to look at what is the value of money and credit, ok? that new world. what is the value of money but what is the store hold of wealth? you just cannot produce it without having an effect on its value. wetalk about the production, will adapt and get past it, but how wealth will change will be very big and different. rishaad: i'm going to come back to that in just a moment, -- >> i'm going to come back to that in just a moment and i keep promising i'm going to come back to things you mention, and i promise i will. in your opinion, is what we've seen thus far in the way of discuss stimulus on the federal government and monetary stimulus from the federal reserve appropriate? are both of those organs of the u.s. government, if you will, doing what they should be doing? and if they are not doing enough yet, what else should they be
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doing? >> yes, and my reaction, there is no choice. in the 2008 financial crisis. you are faced with a choice -- do you want those banks to exist in the future, or do want to get rid of those banks? they may have gone broke and may not have had enough savings and may have done even things they should bear the consequences of, but you want to save the banks. that is similar except it goes way beyond the banks. when you start to think who do you want to save, you have to think about do you provide them with income and how much do you deal with their balance sheet, and if you don't do that, the consequences are enormous. needed to be of the sort. we have to think about the consequences, though, of
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producing all that money and credit. where does it come from? what does it mean? we will turn to that in a minute, but it's just like the great depression. you need to do that and more and we will argue over what we should do and who gets what and that will be our big discussion, but, yes, there has to be more money and credit, and you have youperate in a way where save important things and only impose a certain amount of suffering on people that they can bear. otherwise, you will have a revolution and you will not have productivity. haslinda: ray dalio from bridgewater associates. still to come, apple and huawei concern for investors. the first earnings call since the pandemic. ♪
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set to givepmaker investors a key health check on the tech industry. have techfrom now, we reporter debbie wu in taipei. what are we looking for? what will investors be focused on on this earnings call this afternoon? >> right. are its twoawei
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biggest customers. to use theill want call to find out a hint of how apple and huawei are doing. apple has controlled its guidance for the current quarter. hoping they will be able to provide some color, some s iphones mayapple' be doing. investors will want to find out if much the impact could be washington limits their sales to huawei. capital: how about expenditure? what do we know? expenditure is a
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frequent indicator of how should demand will be and the company said in january that it expects for this year to be a record 15 billion dollars to $16 billion, but there's the possibility chipped demand may take a hit and several tse -- tsmc equipment makers have withdrawn guidance. ifestors will want to know the chipmaker has seen its capex. .ishaad: thank you so much taking a look at tsmc share price, pretty much unchanged. we have just under 15 minutes of
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trade in india, so it looks like we are extending losses. this is bloomberg. ♪
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