tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 21, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
it's not just wall street with a high earnings estimate projecting forward, but management doesn't know where this is going also. so really it is backward looking but it can give you a sense of what a said and stopped us to companies and what happened to their business model. romaine: as we hear the closing bell, a pretty broad based selloffs. 500, --&p muchhe nasdaq 100, pretty 103 -- pretty much 100 of them in the red out of the 103. it looks like will settle on the nasdaq composite. we are awaiting some earnings i believe from netflix which should be getting the wire right about now. scarlet: netflix numbers just
.rossed $1.57, on a gap basis, lower than anticipated. 5.77 billion dollars, higher than what was estimated from analysts. in the case of netflix, it actually makes sense. these are the conditions in which people would be signing up for netflix and using it. first quarter screaming -- first quarter streaming, adding an 8 million. 15 point this is a big beat in terms of the number of subscribers added to netflix in the first quarter. analysts were looking for 8.4 7 million. if you look at healthy stock is
performing, it is getting a bit of a pop here. up about 6%, 7%. texas instruments numbers crossing the wire. we will start with the forecast. , 2.6are saying q2 revenue one billion to 3.1 9 billion. almost a half billion dollars difference there. buthe low-end, very light, on the high end, about what analysts were expecting. it is down 7.3% on a year-over-year basis. ebs, $.64, estimate was for $.93. these are some wide ranges. i want to bring back into the conversation, alicia levine, bny
mellon management strategist. it is interesting that one company is still sticking with forward guidance. of course, the range they are giving is so broad. is this really what we should expect going forward, either companies will pull their guidance or give such a broad range that it will be pick your own adventure, so to speak. alicia: i think that is right. ceos simplyinesses, cannot project forward. for some of the businesses well underway as a result of the pandemic, how much of this business is going to be speaking -- going to be sticky going forward? in the end, you really have to
project forward to the other side of this. it is not just to get to the air pocket, but who can be winners coming out of this. we talked about tech having one bad day. flow.h this with its cash has been, health care outperforming as well, not just because this is starting at eight health care crisis, but also because of the amount of money being thrown into health care will continue for several years. therefore, your business model gets stronger. scarlet: those companies cna
pickup in business. like netflix. whereou have a situation you have to ignore results for , companiespanies .ike health care companies these are not conditions -- alicia: i think that is probably right. googles, what did amazon do with all these prime members? there are certain companies that you simply cannot project. reopen, economy does the manufacturing and industrials will recover faster than the consumer and service sector. it is really something to look out for. in the end, the composition of the equity market is simply not a mirror of the u.s. economy.
we are heavily overweight tech, industrial, financials. it is not entirely surprising that the s&p has done better than what the forecast. simply because the composition is different. really something to pay attention to. really a time to look at business models, cash flow, see which companies can get through this. companieso add that that take a bailout from the u.s. government, that has really not in a great business model for the long-term. even though that provides stability for markets and possible stability, it is not a great place to look for forward returns. scarlet: great tips. alicia levine is chief strategist at begin why mellon investment management.
♪ romaine: broadcasting live from new york to our viewers worldwide, this is "what'd you miss?" i am romaine bostick, joined as always by my cohost, scarlet fu. scarlet: a snapshot of how u.s. stocks closed on the day. the biggest one-day decline since april 1. it is also the first back-to-back decline for stock
indexes since april 1. after the market close, we did hear some fairly -- numbers from netflix. texas instruments went ahead with forecasts, believe it or not. it was a pretty wide forecast. 3.1 9 billion. you are talking about a $900 million gap. tothe eps side, it was $.64 $1.04. those ranges are so wide, who knows where it is going to be. at the moment, we are also getting snap earnings at the wire. active users, 229 million, right around what analysts were looking for. scarlet: better than expected on those daily active users.
analysts -- that is compared with 320 million a year ago. in terms of outlook for the second quarter, snap is not providing any kind of guidance. netflix is providing guidance. what it sees right now is second quarter revenue. that is after revenue topped analyst estimates for the first quarter. netflix certainly a beneficiary of the stay-at-home mandate and the lockdown across the nation and the world. first quarter streaming, paid subscribers, that was a huge beat compared to what analysts had been looking for, something in the area of 8.5 million if we want around it up. we'll be discussing netflix and little bit later on with paul sweeney. we want to go back to some of
the big drivers. that is oil. oil price collapsed. contractne futures today. texas oil regulators delayed voting on production quotas. to put this all together, we want to bring in phil, to give us more context and what we are seeing. when you look at what is going on here in oil, what strikes you the most in terms of the explanation for why we are seeing such dramatic drops? we know that storage is an issue. it all came to a head yesterday and today. why? phil: this is a classic futures market reaction. there is a great bloomberg article on why farmers are dumping milk on the ground, because there is no one to buy
it. this is what happened with crude. the futures market, we went into monday with about twice to maybe with expectation. these are all the firms that will make or take delivery. the longs wanted to get outcome of the shorts did not want to let them. that just drove the prices down. the shorts stuck it out. they made huge profits. part of that may have occurred because traders thought they had storage and could not arrange it. airplaneike having an ticket storage is overbooked. when all of this started to happen, you had a fall in prices. the big issue on this, the u.s. oil fund, all of the money that
set it up for a big collapse. romaine: last week, we got the announcement that they had basically moved onto that june contract, it seemed like that was the support that essentially got broken for the broader market. i wonder, how much of a factor is the uso going to be for the next month's contract given that they are trying to spread across june, july, and august? phil: it depends. i spent 10 years of my life cleaning the mess up in the 1990's. if they succeed at spreading it -- i thinkoblem is we will see things smooth out. they say they will stay in the
first contract. sec have to go through regulations. this can take a little time. that will tend to moderate it. really knocked $10 off the price of oil and cash. scarlet: we can blame uso for about $10 there. i have been reading how rollovers occur late in may. what does that mean in terms of how it will play out in the next couple of weeks? phil: this has been going on for years. thisrs always know that was coming and you could see them essentially playing it.
it ends up distorting the market every time. that is not the first time this has happened. get too large, you end up hurting yourself and you hurt the physical players in the market. romaine: there is a lot of concern here about how, if at address government can these dislocations in the market with regards to all of the pumping that continues to go on out west. we had a proclamation early in the morning from president trump, sandy had directed his department of energy to free up funds to make them available. do you think that could be tough to curtail production where we get a reasonable balance in the market? phil: yes, if they can get the
democrats to sign on to it. on of the more interesting ideas that my friend lam denning pointed out, to buy the oil in the ground and have them leave it in the ground. we used to pay farmers for not planting until we had the freedom farm act. pay the oil producers not to produce, then take delivery of the oil and resell it on the market at some point in the future. arabia,r factor, saudi and when i was on your show in early march, just after the saudis and russia brokered their deal, i sent they had gone to war. in the meantime, what saudi arabia has done is quietly go out and fill all the world's storage, cornered it. we can have them saying
export because the shipping rates are so high. in antitrust, we call this foreclosure of the market. essentially, u.s. producers have been foreclosed out of the world market. romaine: we will have to leave it there. great to have you on. philip verleger. chipotle earnings crossing the wire. q1 sales coming in at above what analysts were looking for for a 1.8% gain. a year ago, they had a 9.9% gain. withdrawingmpanies, the previous guidance. scarlet: i will add another company to that as well, lyft withdrawing guidance and indicating it will give an update on its financial position. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
probably moreiowa than in metropolitan areas, small business is the backbone of our economy. i think the really soft spot in iowa is agriculture because commodity prices globally are way down and the price of our low asare historically you consider an inflation factor. meatve some viruses in our packing plants, and they are not operating at 100% of efficiency.
precise linert of that you go through from a ab pig being born until five months later slaughtering it, getting it into your mouth. what do you do when you have got thousands of pigs that may be can't be slaughtered because the packing plants are not operating at capacity. it is getting to be a problem. we hope we don't have to euthanize some of our livestock, but what do you do? a 250 pound pig expect500 pound pig and to get quality meat out of it. for newdon't have room pigs being born it is caused by
the pandemic with a large share of workers at the packing plant getting the virus. >> $19 million coming the way of farmers. how far will that remedy some of the problem you are seeing right now in the food processing sector? senator grassley: it could end up being a spit in the ocean compared to what is needed. out to got to get it farmers faster than it looks like the federal government has got to do it. when i call up the secretary of agriculture, they talk about red tape in washington, d.c.. i think the secretary of agriculture is very sincere about getting this money out and he is frustrated not being able to get it out faster.
quite frankly, it needs to be out here faster, not well into may as has been indicated to me. haveoner or later, we will to figure out how we pay for all this money coming out. will we have to raise taxes down the road to pay for what we are doing right now? sen. grassley: first of all, we are not spending money just because we like to spend money. our is the first time in history that the government, haveal, state, and local, shut down the economy. your question is a very legitimate one. will it require increases in taxes? i think the answer to that question is directly related to
the ability of the economy to handle the debt. our country has always had some debt. for 50 years, it was about 35% of gross national product. it will be about 100% soon. the last time that happened was world war ii. romaine: you were just listening to republican senator chuck grassley of iowa. some breaking news crossing the wire. this is on epic games, the maker of fortnite. the company is seeking another funding round that would evaluate above its last valuation of $15 billion. they have also been in the news lately for that house party video chat app that has been all the rage with everyone shut in. we were just listening to chuck grassley.
we do want to go down to washington. right now on the senate floor, they are debating another stimulus bill, another relief measureother stopgap with loans, getting the hospital supplies and other things. josh wingrove covers washington for us. what do we know about this particular piece of legislation that appears to be making its way through the senate right now and appears to be ready to be signed by president trump once it gets to his desk. they have been sort of on the 1-yard line for a couple of days. $484 billion package. a lot of that is on top of the small business aid programs, known as the paycheck protection programs. republicans have been pressing
that. democrats wanted changes. it does not look like they will get any. they have added different funding mechanisms, things like testing, money for hospitals. this appears that it will be able to sail through congress and the next few days or so. we are right in the middle of watching that go down right now. scarlet: how exactly do they do that? no one is actually in washington. i do you get a vote like that through unless it is unanimous? think they are going for a voice vote, one step low unanimous. there has been dissent among lawmakers the one thing to watch for in the house, when it comes up for the vote there, maybe on thursday or so --
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ok, sorry, we are taking a look at what is going on in oil prices. we are going to check in with joe weisenthal as well to see what the experts have to say. joe: thanks. president trump has set up a showdown with democratic governors over the coronavirus, blaming them for the poor handling and even in some places encouraging protests. perhapsw indicating trump coming out worse. joining us for that and more, paul krugman, distinguished professor for economics at the graduate center of city university of new york. he is also the author of "arguing with zombies: economics, politics, and a fight for a better future."
let's start with the economics it looks like the senate is going to pass another trench of the payroll protection program to keep people on the payrolls. week after week, millions of jobs lost. view asfficient in your the fiscal response pin from d.c.? paul: two things. it is way insufficient. on several fronts. bottlenecked. the money is not really flowing. i am really disappointed in this deal. there is no state and local fiscal relief. that is a gigantic hole that is opening up. it is obvious. it is going to be a real impediment to economic recovery because states and local
governments will be forced into austerity. , itcheck protection program has all been spoken for, but it looks like a lot of the money went to the wrong people. unemployment benefits, which are actually i think the most important piece of all of this given what is happening to the job market. it is being run through the states, which i think is a big mistake. they just can't handle the load. the fiscal response could have been worse. but, it is looking like we are falling way short of the challenge here. joe: we all know what a big fan of the new york times president trump is. i am sure he reads your comments regularly. ande were to call you in design the ideal program to keep
the economy afloat during this period of widespread shelter-in-place, what would be the ideal design? paul: first of all, we need to un-bottleneck those benefits. the canadians set up a special federal program with a hotline. canadians who needed covid related unemployment benefits were getting it within days. we could still do that. the second thing is we need several hundred dollars in aid -- several hundred million dollars to eight to state and local government. ofceptually, we have pieces all the right elements in our program. we either don't have the administrative capacity or we have not allocated enough money.
i would say state and local would be the most important things right now. joe: let's switch over to the fed side. rapidly,as moved building on tools developed during the last crisis. you mentioned state and local, setting up a municipal lending facility. what grade would you give jerome powell and what further do you think is in the fed's toolkit? a.l: i give jerome powell an have gone very extreme. they took i think the right point of view, which is that there may be some purchases that we will regret later, but we will regret not stabilizing the financial system a whole lot
more. they took all the risks on the upside. there was a point a few weeks back when it really was looking like 2008. you could see liquidity was the fed threw trillions of dollars at it, which was the right thing to do. the one thing we have appeared to avoid is a financial sector fallout. everything else is going to hell because we are not getting money out the door fast enough. you mentioned it in couple of times already, the need for more aid from cities and states. maybe that will come from congress and the later rounds. do you think the fed can do more de and expand that facility so it can further ease
the austerity we are already seeing across the country? paul: not too much. the constraint on state and local is not that they cannot sell bonds, it is basically that they are not allowed to sell bonds. they can to some extent. but state and local governments are under constitutional rules requiring a balanced budget. most cities are under rules. they probably could borrow. if they were not under those rules, since everybody is fairly sure that this is a temporary shock. they probably could do some borrowing. but they themselves are not allowed. have leftist friends who say, why doesn't the fed just give people a lot of money? the problem is, that is not in the fed's remit.
it can free up borrowing but the problem is that states are not allowed to do large-scale binary -- large-scale borrowing. ' job.s not the states see various state governors talking about opening up. economic perspective, nobody thinks that we are going to wait until there are actually -- absolutely zero cases. that seems unrealistic. how should governors or the white house think about the trade-off between the pure virus side versus the cost of economic degradation we see day after day. paul: first of all, we are a rich country. the present discounted value of our future gdp is effectively intimate -- effectively infinite.
we can afford to provide disaster relief to ourselves to a long time. the debt is not a problem. the cost of a premature loosening up in terms of life and death are just huge. the numbers are, how many people does an affected person in fact? you need to -- affected person infect? one for to get r below a long enough time so that the pool of people still infected is small enough that a much to ramped up program allows you to contain and. if you do not do that, then you are looking at a second wave of deaths. we have seen that happen in a couple of places. the costs of that are immense. this is where you want to air on
scarlet: coca-cola's latest earnings show that sales volumes are down globally since the start of april. >> fortunately, we started the year in strong position, both operationally and with our balance sheet. steps inaken decisive the month of march to strengthen our liquidity position in the event of any scenario for the rest of the year. obviously, as we talk this morning, we see a difficult q2 ahead. second half of the year, i would not want to speculate quite yet. we are getting ready to benefit, given that our business is global in nature. i would expect the recovery phase to be gradual and take different shapes and forms in different parts of the world.
be all aroundl staying agile and flexible to situationsrticular we see around the world. a so far, you have recorded 25% drop in global sales. 40% drop,withstand a 50% drop? can withstand a significant drop in q2. as we have outlined. for the second half of the year, we are prepared for a worst-case scenario. we do expect gradual recoveries around the world and we will be well-positioned. market by market, it is important to have the flexibility for the worst case and to be able to invest and reengage as appropriate.
we will be prepared for whichever scenario comes through. >> can we talk about what the word temporary means? you said that the business "believes the pressure on the business is temporary and remains optimistic on the back half of 2028 what do you think the long term effect will be on all of our willingness to go to restaurants and drink your product when we are there. the curious how you think long-term changes in consumer behavior will affect your business. i think for sure we are going to see some behavior changes around the world with respect to how people shop, drink, and eat. i think with regards to the beverage industry, we are well-positioned to adapt as we
a morehether it is being active player in the digital channels, whether it is partnering more with take-out and home delivery, or whether it is adapting as needs be in the restaurant environment. what i do think we will see is a gradual recovery starting in the second half of the year. going into 2021, more of a return and time to adapt as appropriate not only for our business but for other industries dependent on the away from home channels also. romaine: we were just listening to the coca-cola cfo. some breaking news. shares going to be offered up by united
airlines. the price a little bit below where the shares closed earlier today. right now in after hours trading, the shares down about 3%. netflix shares a little bit higher in after-hours trading. millionheadline, 15.8 paid subscribers, almost twice as many as had been predicted. let's bring in paul sweeney who is cohost of bloomberg surveillance and markets for bloomberg radio. analyst for many years and knows that industry like the back of his hand. there was this idea with everyone shut in, we were all watching netflix, but there was not necessarily new sign-ups. basically people who already had the service. these numbers seem to suggest that netflix was able to attract
new paying subscribers. paul: it was a massive quarter in terms of new subscriber additions. that is a metric they are focusing on, how fast can they grow the subscriber base. it allows for the company to invest in even more programming. million new subscribers, about twice what the street was expecting. they locked down impacts we are seeing around the world has really driven subscriber growth. the company did call that phenomenon out in their investor letter. they said, when we get back to normal, the accelerated growth is a function of the covid-19. the bad very quickly, news for netflix is that production on tv shows and movies has stopped for now but
that means less spending so they had positive free cash flow as a result. paul: they did. they burned through a lot of cash. they have not changed their outlook, just some of the spending will be shifted from some of the current quarters to some of the later quarters. they do need production globally to get ramped up again. like a lot of other businesses, that will only occur when it is safe to do so. don't look past these first-quarter numbers when it comes to netflix. thank you so much. fors turn to mark crumpton our first word headlines. mark: the white house and congress have agreed on a new pandemic relief plan. it will provide funds and aid for coronavirus testing and overwhelmed hospitals.
signednt trump said he the measure. the senate is back in a pro forma session this afternoon. americans will soon be able to test for themselves for covid-19 at home. the food and drug administration has approved the first home testing kit. officials say the test is as accurate as when you get at a doctor's office or hospital. the kids are expected to be available in most states with a doctor's order in the coming weeks. italy says the number of new virus infections is almost equal to the number of people who have recovered. this comes as the prime minister is drying up a plan to cautiously pull the country from a nationwide lockdown. the current containment measures shutter all nonessential businesses, band movement within the country, and all but confine people to their homes except for buying food, going to work, and
seeking medical help. a bipartisan senate report released today confirms the u.s. intelligence community's conclusions that russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election to so chaos. -- the heavily redacted report is part of the panel's more than three year probe into the russian interference. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
the united states oil fund etf has now run out of shares. bloomberg technology senior analyst eric joins us with more. inflows,of the record it seems like everyone wants to get in now. walk us through what is going on here. >> this happens like once every five years where oral -- where oil gets so low that everyone starts hearing about it on the nightly news. they think, how will i play that rebound? aboutly, this thing is 1-2 billion of assets. they know how to treat it. it is fine. but then you have another 2 billion that came in that are what i call tourists. it is probably just an overcrowded trade. now it has made its shares run out. it has to apply for some new
ones. right now, it is a 22% premium and i would be very careful trading it right now because of that. romaine: a little bit earlier in .231 per share. we saw that may contract trade below zero yesterday. uso,he measures taken by is that going to be enough to ensure that they will avoid hitting that zero mark? eric: it can't trade below zero. it would get delisted before that. and 20%olding 80% june july. it has shifted its coverage. 40% june, 55% july. it said, we will be able to go anywhere on the curve. it has basically turned into an
active fund. that will i think help mitigate the possibility of it going anywhere near zero. right now, this is a fluid situation. that shift today i think was a smart move. it is not going to have that pop. if the june month starts to spike, uso will feel less of it now. of what great breakdown is going on at uso, the united states oil fund. right now, closed for new shares. eric balchunas, thank you for joining us. that does it for "what'd you miss?" have a great evening. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet.
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