tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 22, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT
morning, at least in the short term, and epic last. -- an epic bust. houston has a problem. the shale revolution is dead. singapore to manhattan, the president with a plan that goes long into the future. get your hand off the pause button, mr. mcconnell talks about. mr. mnuchin to the rescue who draws republicans to a consensus for more aid in a shattered economy. out there somewhere, deflation. this is bloomberg "surveillance." we are working homebound, although a little bit of a feel of the pandemic. i look at all the reading and tones of this horrific strategy
-- tragedy, and germany leading on trying some way to get back to normal. francine: germany is a good test, but if you look at the number of lockdowns and when it happened, various countries also have very different patterns. they are similar in some ways but depending on when you started the lockdown you will have a different number of infected. i have been looking at mathematic modeling and out of europe, the u.k. comes up with the moats -- most deaths. we look to germany to see if there is a solution. some setbacks, singapore having a tough go of it. the united states, you looked at , andectors of the pandemic massachusetts and california having a tough number of days.
right now, we need a news briefing. viviana: the u.s. house could vote on the pandemic measure as early as tomorrow. the senate passing a $484 billion release -- relief package, including money for the tapped out program to aid small businesses and aid for hospitals. immigration and president donald trump, he announced he would halt two months green cards for permanent residency, stopping short on a ban for foreign workers. that will complicate planning for companies looking to rebound from coronavirus. in the u.k., the finance minister says there are encouraging signs the outbreak is slowing. yesterday's death toll was the slowest in two weeks and parliament is planning to use group denies -- planning to
scrutinize how the johnson administration is handling the pandemic. , it fell inoil london to the lowest level in 21 years before rising, plunging to around $16 a barrel. the coronavirus outbreak has crushed demand and there are steueril will overwhelm -- storage capacity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, after the challenges of yesterday, a little better take. curves fractionally stronger. equity futures up. in oil, we have forgotten about
the may futures. to junee been repriced in west texas intermediate and the numbers are shocking. brent crude plummeting yesterday. i don't have it formally in the data check but it is something we will be watching, ethanol. ethanol in america and brazil centers around corn and sugar, and they have plunged, corn and sugar testing multi-year lows. looking atne way of this oil debacle may be to signal the hit to the global economy from the pandemic will be much deeper and longer than investors expected. this could have wider implications. some countries are moving to laxer measures. we are still seeing a lift to
european market, 1% higher, and treasuries up with the dollar. tom: he is the gentleman from istanbul and one of the major voices on the trillium. -- petroleum. he is fatih birol. and we areo him thrilled he could join us to talk about this historic moment for oil. what would you expect will be the institutional response over the next 48 hours, to oil? do we see opec plus plus? is it every opec member for themselves or do you have an original iea formation? for having me. , indeed.opments
we talked last week and said this month will go in the apple and the black that is what i think we are seeing now. opportunities that we can still look into in order to address the problem. think it countries, i may be a good idea that those countries who made an announcement they will cut production may well reduce their production as soon as possible without waiting for the first of may, and may even consider further cuts to what they have announced. this may be one option we have in front of us. another option could be, as some
countries we have suggested, to buy oil to put in their reserves. i imagine the u.s., for example, anda, and other countries, this morning i woke up confused that the australian government decided to take advantage of the oil prices to build up the oil reserves in the amount of 100 billion u.s. dollars. this may be another option to put on the table. those countries can cut production. now withoutction waiting for the first of may. tom: it has a ring of 1986 but it is such a different world. explain why this collapse in oil is not what we saw in february
march of 1986. fatih: this is very different huge,986 because it is a huge decline story we are seeing. in our discussions in the media and so on, we are focusing on the production side because we are talking about the russia, but demanditics, will crash by almost 30 million barrels per day, one third. recovers,the economy we may still see demand not the confinement measures are listed -- lifted. this is the biggest problem compared to 1986. francine: you say opec should
cut. by how much? how much more cuts by opec less would make a difference? opec-plus would make a difference? ,atih: a cut to all producers this may be a black april because those countries are countries'those cutting agreement is for the first of may and i think they should cut sooner. we have adjusted the estimate of the iea and non-opec-plus countries, we look at those countries that are not numbers of opec-plus oil producers, we can discuss one month on this. stopped,f production about 2 million barrels per day
coming from the countries, u.s., canada, and brazil, which is also very important. francine: part of the original deal, and all the countries that you named are part of it, the g20 would buy more oil and cut production. when will we find out what they are doing, the g20 countries? fatih: i told you, we just looked at some of those countries and we see only within the last one month production stopped. in those countries, there are about 2.2 million barrels a day u.s. -- andn by internal production is returning
in a rapid way. so this is 2.2 million coming from the g20 countries but in addition to that, it is cutstant that opec-plus and make production cuts as soon as possible without waiting for may. tom: the president has a certain style. he politically, domestically is a huge representation and support from the states that make up energy america. what for you is the most effective plan or program or policy that president trump can generate right now to help support the price of oil? with: i think the dialogue the producers around the world is of critical importance. if the dialogue is important in
general, today it is very, very important because in terms of all the producers but also consumers and the global economy , the united states and other countries come together to look at the different options they have on the table and through dialogue to solve this problem. no country can solve this problem alone. we will get a scale up of the problem. the united states is definitely in the driving seat but also saudi arabia and oil producing companies need to make an effort so that we are out of the black april with minimum damage for the global economy. that we saw an is there nof oil, downward limit anymore? will we see -100 and
see much more negative rises over the coming months? if no further measures or policies are put in place, such as some of the countries are cutting their production earlier than others, if the other countries do not follow the footsteps of australia, the u.s., and others, we may well crisis.her in the absence of the right policies until june, we have a difficult few months. birol, we appreciate your visits with us over the last few months, from the iea. we are focused on oil and the
♪ good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york. and getcus on assets straight to sebastien galy. you have a number of smart notes. one of the first things i read when i wake up and something that caught my attention was on north korea. much,y we don't know
don't know when the lockdowns will land and when the pandemic -- will end and when the pandemic is over. sebastien: when you focus on north korea, you have a strong man and potentially a serious health condition. when that comes out it is important because it is information that is well hidden. you could have a change of scene in north korea, a move by the military to take over and eventually over six to 12 months , a reopening of the economy toward south korea, a lessening of the tensions which will not be welcome by china which uses north korea as a buffer against the west and south korea. it is an interesting thing if things pan out as expected. korea five years, north would open as a frontier market,
an interesting development, particularly if you are a south korean manufacturer. tom: in the too short time we have at the today, the new analysis is a spread of a disinflationary or deflationary thrust. how important is that analysis now? now -- if i am right you go to local stores everything is well-stocked, even in an economy that is very well-managed, strong government, strong central bank, there is still an element of unqualified fear. basics of back to the hunter gatherers so they pile up on toilet paper and it becomes difficult to acquire. and you get these frictions a strong demand to deliver some of it, you could get a balance of inflation. we are not in 1920's germany
france had the manufacturing base of germany and the central bank printed a lot of money. inflation, you may have some pockets of it, fresh fruits and other elements in the united states, but not something all-encompassing. economyn a deflationary reinforced by oil prices. tom: what is your bet on dollar? it is a strategic call on dollar based on the collapse in oil. sebastien: we are focused on emerging markets. , and a mixbounding of a v-shaped and you shape, and it will take emerging markets with it, eventually going down to brazil as it reaches for soft commodities and the likes.
a great story for emerging market. they should perform -- outperform the dollar. what most central banks will do is intervene because the americans will start hitting on them in unofficial ways through local banks, commercial banks, and the likes to hide the activity of the central banks. you should see some appreciations of emerging-market currencies and performance of emerging markets in general but on the currency side, limited. the dollar versus euro is not that exciting. focusing on the united states as an exporter of energy, it is not helpful that oil prices are lower. does anybody care? no, because we are in a risk-averse environment. , safe dollars,
are very much in demand, and there is a scarcity of them. francine: what do you do with the haven currencies such as the swiss franc or yen? sebastien: the swiss franc is an interesting one. we do not trade it actively. if we focus on the swiss franc which is not part of the basket that we use on our systematic trading strategy, it becomes up to a point where the odds are that the swiss national bank will go from negative interest rate. curing the swiss national bank to curate more bonds. it has a bit of emerging-market bonds also. it is not too appealing. negative interest rates may be appealing from a local perspective. the economy is robust and going
and i'm tom keene. there are many on wall street that talk and few that do. joseph amato did that it peabody -- at peabody and then went to lehman and created a miracle. he took them to the best on the street. he now holds court at newberger berman and we are thrilled we could get perspective from joseph amato. i have to go do your good analyst on oil. what have you learned on oil forward? joseph: good morning, tom and francine. good to be with you. certainly, markets have been remarkable over the last couple of days given the technical imbalances we saw. i think it comes down to a fairly straightforward apply demand imbalance. -- supply demand imbalance.
millionmarket is a 100 isrel a day market and it down to about 75 million barrels. it is an enormous reduction in and supply has not caught up with that. now, those shut-ins and reductions in production are not coming quick enough. tom: it goes to your true expertise which is high-yield. what do you see for troubled oil companies in the high-yield space? how difficult will it be? joseph: i think they will have a tough time. we see significant numbers of defaults in high-yield. in the high-yield market overall , you will probably be in the high single digit default rate
but you will see a materially higher number than that. quality producers can withstand the challenges of the past number of months and have durable enough business models to get through, but a significant portion will undoubtedly default. that has destabilized in the early part of the selloff, the high-yield market, which has come back and stabilized a bit. thatine: is there a worry if too many companies go down, there is too much indebtedness that it becomes a systemic problem, and will this happen if there are too many shale producers in the u.s. going down? joseph: there is certainly an element of that destabilizing the markets, so we think there is not necessarily risk of systemic issue. 2015ve gone back to wait
and 2016, you had a significant decline in energy. the energy sector was a higher percentage of the high-yield market and there were a number of challenges presented. the markets have been able to deal with that and it is a narrower problem today, to the system broadly. sequiturs --nergy sectors are a relatively tiny part of the s&p 500. it is extraordinary when you see where was a decade ago. francine: when you look at what ,appened to the price of oil will this be a recurring theme? i don't know if there is any other asset class could touch. some expected this, others didn't. where can we see dislocations next? joseph: as often set about the
oil market, the solution for high oilprices is prices and the solution for low oil prices is low oil prices so production cuts will bring it into better balance. i do not think it will be a recurring problem but it will take a while to work through the earliere we referred to given the differential between where demand is today and where supply is. you have to believe that those who have agreed to cut production, whether u.s. producers, middle east, or other parts of the world will not adhere to that. that has always been a challenge , so we do not see oil prices having a huge amount of volatility. the forward curve is out to about $40 but we think it will be a grind and a slow walk to that level. tom: one final question if we
cantor has talked about finding quality and staying with quality. is to own reaction seven or eight stocks. we have never seen this concentration. what does it signal to our viewers and listeners that we see such a concentrated bid in the market? joseph: i think the market is telling you it is still very skeptical about a skip -- a cyclical recovery. it has moved up in quality narrowed to those stocks which have durable business models that can sustain a challenging economic environment. the s&p the focus is on 500 and how it has declined and rallied back, and feels like it has moved ahead of itself. when you look below the surface
where small-cap is or value, those sectors or segments of the market have not recovered, and certainly the cyclicals have been quite skeptical about this level of recovery. aere is a move to quality and level of fear and uncertainty about the pace of this recovery. in our own minds, we have a wide range of outcomes as it comes to our base case versus the downside and upside. uncertainty and fear, you have moved up in quality and price at aggressive -- priced at aggressive levels. tom: joseph amato from newberger berman, thrilled he could be with us. right now, your first word news in new york city. viviana: the democrats got what they wanted and the $484 billion relief bill passed by the u.s.
senate, including money for the tapped out small business funding and also coronavirus testing and overwhelmed hospitals. banld trump's immigration is not as wide-ranging as other had feared. onordered a 60 day halt issuing green cards but backed away from plans to suspend guestworker programs. the president does hint there could be more restrictions. donald trump does not know how kim jong-un is doing. he told reporters he may reach out to the leader. u.s. officials say they were told can was in critical condition after surgery last week, but south korea says he was conducting normal activities. the governor of tokyo considering new restrictions at
grocery stores. japan has avoided an explosive surge of coronavirus cases but in the last month a steady rise forcing the government to declare a state of emergency. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. we will have plenty more throughout the day on markets, and a conversation about the senate bill that has been passed and what that means for small business enterprise in the u.s. a conversation with democratic house speaker nancy pelosi. this is bloomberg. ♪
fors was a lot closer vote the president than anybody thought, 53% for the president and 43% for secretary clinton. it is even more closer now. he has to respond to this crisis in oil. how do you expect the president will respond domestically to this collapse? the nextmestically, round is economic stimulus and will have to include assistance for the energy sector. yesterday i interviewed the senator from north dakota and he said as much. the next round of stimulus as likely to happen in the first round of may. the second part of this is more international and it relates to how the u.s.-saudi relationship
will play out. the idea that during a global pandemic, the saudis would raise ande with the united states dabble in this dynamic with russia has caught many, many republicans, not off guard, but has caused them to reevaluate the business relationship the u.s. and saudis have. francine: how do you expect that relationship to evolve, and is there anything more that president trump can do to sustain the u.s. shale producers? kevin: yes, to answer the second part first, based upon conversations with lawmakers, the federal assistance that could come in the next round of
stimulus is in the short-term something they could do. do bring it home to the politics, tom is correct, ohio,e michigan, texas, that is the dynamic that not just president trump wants to address, but down ballot races in both parties. thingember, the last anyone wants and their district is that refineries are going bankrupt. it is a dance where the price of oil could be cheap but bankruptcies are not good. tom: what will you listen for in our conversation with the speaker of the house? think the biggest question for speaker pelosi will alleviateshe going to the people who have really forced her hand on the far left
of her party? how does she balance the tension coming from the aoc crowd with the emergency that small businesses are facing? it was perceived as a failure on her part that she had in the last couple of weeks with the sba of inability to get the program replenished. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much, our chief washington correspondent on the dominic's -- dynamics of oil. johnsl continue with hopkins university, lauren sauer will join us. we will look forward to better news on this terrible pandemic. worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪
network posting the strongest results and its history, adding record subscribers in the first quarter and benefiting from the coronavirus pandemic. netflix expects the surge to come at the expense of future growth. roche says it's still expects a small profit this year. the most popular drug is holding. united airlines is stepping up efforts to survive the collapse in travel ban. the price was that the high-end of the marketed range, the government stepping in with $50 billion in grants for the airline industry but airlines are still trying to raise more cash. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much.
more on the virus. as we continue to track virus worldwide, bloomberg has a unique partnership on covid-19 with johns hopkins which has been on the forefront of the response with great analysis. you interviews with people running their departments. this is the department of infectious disease and emergency preparedness. joining us as lauren sauer. thank you, professor, for joining us. what do we know about testing? are enough people being tested in the u.s. now and will the numbers increase in 30 to 40 days? lauren: the hope is that the numbers will increase but we don't know. we have a lot of tests in the united states but are not distributed in a way that allows
us to do systematic and broad testing which is the linchpin of the other health measures we are putting into place. we need to ramp up testing and make sure it is happening in the hardest hit places. francine: how do you see the lockdown ending? do we just returned to normal or will there be specific health measures that need to be kept? lauren: everyone is looking forward to the lockdown ending, but we have to do it carefully or else we will be back in this situation or possibly worse. testing will be critical to ending this lockdown, and then you link that with quick access tracing,contact tracking people who have been near people who are sick and making sure they say isolated until they pass the window of possibly getting other people
sick, those are the key measures for sure. tom: you are expert in emergency medicine which i learned a long time ago, a process driven event. you go from step to step. what part of this steps for testing is the constraint? what makes it so darn hard to get tests done in this pandemic? lauren: basically what happened as we had a not so great strategy and executed that strategy in a not so great way, in a poor way, so we were starting from behind from the get go. now we do not have a systematic approach to testing. it is patchwork across the united states and people are making their own decisions and working with what they have, but it is not systematic and nobody
has visibility on the whole system. there is break down on where the tests are done, all the pieces of it, the reagents, the swabs. the small pieces break down quickly. tom: i say this with great respect for the exhausted people doing this every day. i hear the clapping in new york city at 7:00 p.m.. it is coast-to-coast. where is cdc? shouldn't cdc with the full force of the speaker, senate majority leader, and president, effect a uniform test? so.en: i absolutely think we are hearing from federal leadership there is enough test and that might be the truth, but because they are not spread out and implemented in a systematic manner, it does not matter.
we need leadership from cdc, asper, and nih. can we do better in the u.s. to make sure there is enough personal protection equipment? lauren: we need to look hard at our supply chain and be careful about how we are using ppe's closely. one piece is making sure we do not reopen too quickly so we have time to build up stores of ppe again and distributed before we see increasing cases if we open too quickly. training people to use it remains really important, so as new people come into work in the health-care care system, making sure they understand what it is for and
how to be safe when putting it on and off. francine: that was lauren sauer from johns hopkins. there is a lot of figures, a lot of curiosity about what happens to the price of oil. lowertook quite a leg after we saw what happened wti futures. 500 andking at the s&p futures are rising with european stocks gaining 1%. a couple of strange currencies we need to look at including pound. tom: we will look at the data in our next hour and reframe it. we have a better market, and equity lift, but far more important we have all sorts of correlations, a challenge to the very gentle lift. when you look at a steeper yield curve, it all works, but it is
the hit to crude spreads to brent, preferring for negative prices as the white house debates ways to help oil companies. up --urope, you are now and europe, you are now up. eu leaders prepare for their thursday summit and the ecb considers junk debt as collateral. bank of america sees a huge pop in gold prices over the next 18 months as federal deficits and bank balance sheets balloon. we will speak to francisco blanch, the man behind that call. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: this wednesday, april 22. a flurry of news coming out. we are off the highs of the session within the s&p. euro getting a little bit of strength. oil still the commodity of favor, by far -- the commodity out of favor, by far.
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