tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 14, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EDT
york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading session in the united states. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy johnson is out today. this is "bloomberg markets." we have a very much risk on tone -- every much risk off tone today. jobless claims were more than the 2.1 million anticipated. that is really very negative for the labor force. we also had the 10 year yield moving down to 61 basis after that data. the dollar index is strengthening, though. a weaker euro and british pound sterling today, and crude oil making some gains. the president making comments about china, really ramping up rhetoric, saying he has no desire to speak with president xi jinping.
that plays how throughout the afternoon, but it is certainly cassidy a pallor -- certainly casting a pallor over these markets. the stoxx 600 down more than 3%. all of the major indices, from the docks to the ftse 100 to the 3%.40 down more than group just one stock -- 3i group just one of the stocks bucking the trend, up more than 5%. prudential, the insurer, down 8%. it says it will be a difficult second quarter. we will speak with another insurer headquartered out of london little later on, the lloyd's of london ceo john neal about difficulties for ensuring markets in this
environment. that is all to come in the next two hours. let's get back now to the u.s.. initial jobless claims coming in at 2.9 8 million last week, topping initial estimates. that brings the total now to 36.5 million since the coronavirus pandemic began shutting down businesses mid-march. let's get to our guest, who also has a focus on latin america. we are speaking with catherine rivera, bulltick -- with kathryn ofney vera, bulltick head research and strategy. kathryn: from a market , we think the tide will begin to turn towards fundamentals if and when the market is discounting, but a fantastically quick resolution to the crisis is not realized. the risk that we run is that this is not a v-shaped recovery, but a w shaped recovery, which means we reopen, and there is
either a mutated version of this crisis or we get a second bout in the latter half of this year, causing another closure of the economy. i think that is the primary risk at this point. we are off a couple points, but i think we are way too overbought in the equity markets, so we are recommending our clients to start to realize profits and outright sale of risk assets, moving into cash. vonnie: that is fascinating. what about the president's comments regarding china? is that narrative going to come back into the market? if so, will we hold onto the gains we have made? kathryn: i think certainly, one should expect both the democratic candidate and the incumbent president to speak in populist tones and go aggressively, at least in verbal form, with regards to china.
the polling showing that there ,s some ill will towards china and the voting population would like to hear something in that sense. i expect more of it to come, and i expected from both sides. anhink you are going to see increasingly populist wave come to the fore from the politics side, given that you have both monetary and fiscal stimulus in the markets, making the rich there's 36.5 million people looking for unemployment benefits and the labor force really bleeding. i think that divergence in fortunes is going to cause populism to actually continue its trend stronger. vonnie: so you are recommending that people trim positions. what should they do, just build up a bulwark of cash? kathryn: as the market moves towards record highs, 12, 14
points off of record highs, which is shocking given that we are in a recession, or in the worst case scenario, a depression. looking ahead, we are looking at put option strategies. we are looking at option contracts with longer expiry's, just to hedge the risk associated with the election and further political risks. rebalancing to fixed income if we get closer to record highs, but i am expecting a downdraft here. i think the only thing that can keep the markets going higher is the fed buying more, potential he different types of assets, even finding ways to buy alternative asset classes, a vaccine announced, or the economy successfully reopens, all of which i think are tall orders. vonnie: i want to get to latin
america. you focused quite strongly on countries like mexico. we are anticipating another cut later on, perhaps 25 basis points, more even potentially. if latin america's second-biggest economy is seeing a spike in rates of coronavirus, what do you do about mexico and mexican investments right now? kathryn: mexico is in dire straits. we think mexico will probably have an l-shaped recovery. see a contraction near 10% of gdp. all of this is being priced into the market. you can see the mexican peso has been severely beaten up. we do anticipate a downgrade this year the rating category, putting serious pressure on industries like tourism, entertainment, construction, and the value.ting -- mexico and brazil
will probably the worst hit, given the governments in both countries. they were very delayed in the response. the mexican stimuli has been so paltry that there is nothing to even discuss. there's been no fiscal expenditure to speak of. mexico is almost becoming known as the fiscal hawk of the region because of the lack of spending. vonnie: there had been a pilot in to latin american bonds -- a pile in to latin american bonds. happens now? mexico specifically, maybe brazil, are they investable? kathryn: i think if you expect a downdraft and aversion to risk coming in the next couple of months, you don't want to be investing right now. liquidity has improved drastically in the past few
weeks. prices have bounced back to levels that we deem expensive, so we think it is a great opportunity to sell those bonds that expose volatility and and for, raise cash, further opportunities in coming months. is 0.6%the mexican peso weaker before that potential rate cut later on today. our thanks to catherine rivera, bulltick -- to kathryn rooney vera, bulltick head of research and strategy. let's get the first word news. here's ritika gupta. ritika: president trump once again expressing his displeasure with china. he says he is looking at chinese firms listed on the new york stock exchange or nasdaq that don't follow u.s. accounting rules. no word what is meant by "looking at." meanwhile, president trump also told fox he won't renegotiate his so called phase i trade deal with china, despite china
falling short of agreement to buy more u.s. exports. earlier this month, the chinese communist party publication said beijing was considering negotiating the deal or canceling it altogether. fbi has reportedly seized the mobile phone of the chair of the senate intelligence committee, richard burr. other senators sold holdings earlier this year after a closed-door briefing on the threat of the coronavirus. his office has denied any wrongdoing. the international energy agency sees the oil market improving. the iea says demand is a little stronger than expected. meanwhile, supply has been reined in by a brutal price crash. oil production is set to decline this month to the lowest level in nine years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you.
♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." let's get a deep dive into market action. his kailey leinz. kailey: we are looking at losses for about 1.5% for the major averages in the u.s., more like 3% in the european session. you have ongoing concern about the economy following jerome powell's comments and nearly 3 million jobless claims in the u.s., plus concerning commentary from u.s. in regard to china,
and many big-name investors saying stock valuations are too high at this point. . the kbw bank index is lower for a fourth day. for equities more broadly, it is the third down day for the s&p 500 yet we haven't seen three days of losses on that index since early march. the index is down nearly 5% over the last three sessions, putting us on pace for the worst week in nearly three months. what is interesting is a lot of investors maybe saw this coming. week, they pulled a $16 billion out of the market. that is the most since march and the third most since august. it really underscores the how this isd shifting in more they a risk off direction. norwegian is lower by about 8.5 percent after reporting first-quarter results. carnival sinking after reporting job losses and salary cuts.
united down about 10%, in part because of a lawsuit related to federal virus funding. broadly weighing on travel stocks today is comments from president trump, who told foxbusiness this morning that a return to international travel will take a little while area -- a little while. vonnie: thank you for that. president trump taking another jab at china, saying he is looking at chinese companies that trade on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq, but do not follow u.s. accounting rules. let's bring in bloomberg's chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. before he got to the companies on the exchanges, he mentioned that he doesn't particularly feel like talking to xi jinping right now. he didn't mention if that would even be a possibility, but clearly he is poking the bear a little bit again. kevin: president trump dramatically increasing his rhetoric against chinese president xi jinping as the
broader nonpartisan coalition has emerged in congress. several proposals to try to disentangle the u.s. relationship from china. i was at the state department earlier this week. i spoke with the undersecretary for economic affairs. what he had to say was essentially, if you look at this china issue, this is probably the most unifying partisan issue ever. everybody has a passion for that. it is chinese doctrine. ands to do with money retaliation. vonnie: wait, what's that, kevin? kevin: i was at the state department earlier this week, and i interview to the undersecretary for economic affairs. what he had to say essentially was that this is a nonpartisan issue in congress. vonnie: right. so what does that mean? first of all, that his rhetoric from the administration, right?
but what can congress do at this point the presidential level, if there are no negotiations taking place below that? kevin: i think that is part of the broader strategy. joe biden's senior policy advisor gave an interview to reuters earlier this week, and they actually said that biden's campaign is going to be releasing a proposal of their own for how the biden administration would handle china, and what they plan to do is criticize trump for being too soft on china. so the broader take away if you are outside of the beltway, trying to figure out exact the what this means for u.s. policy, u.s. policy is trending in a much more aggressive approach against the chinese communist party. in addition to that, i have spoken with several democrats over the past several weeks who are saying they are willing to work with republicans to try to disentangle some of the financial ties that the u.s. has with china as it relates to higher education, the financial services sector, and the energy
sector as well. the state department has re-update policy to try to build international standards with european allies to try to get them on the same page with the united states as it relates to that disentanglement. the a domestic perspective, u.s. is trying to diversify its supply chain from china, and from an international geopolitical standpoint, the u.s. is trying to bring back on board europe to try to do the exact same thing. and trade negotiations with britain ongoing, as well. backed elon musk's decisions to go against local authorities do not reopen plants. he is definitely backing they reopen america since at this point. how does it play for him down the road when he is looking to get reelected, given that we have unemployment so high now?
another 2.9 million applying for initial jobless claims. is a perfect illustration of where republicans and the conservative movement is in terms of reopening the economy. the president saying he supports elon musk's rhetoric, and saying that he could move that plant to texas, a state that has been much more aggressive in terms of its reopening strategy. i was on capitol hill yesterday and spoke with congressman jim jordan, a republican from ohio. what he told me was that the democrat proposal for another round of economic stimulus is down on arrival. he said republicans are starting more aggressively to say that the best way to get out of this economic downturn is to reopen the economy and not just provide a blank check. the democrats i speak with say
the complete opposite. they say there needs to be much more slowing in terms of reopening the economy in order to provide health relief, but that because of that, then needs to be urgent economic relief for all americans, particularly those who are underserved. vonnie: kevin, thank you for joining us today. that is bloomberg chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. still ahead, i will speak with lloyd's of london ceo john neal about how they are hindering -- how they are handling payouts during the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪
acquisitions made in previous years. he is speaking exclusively with bloomberg's matt miller and anna edwards. >> you may have seen early plunged 55%,nues net profits by plus 75%. so clearly, q1 benefited from significant volumes and volatility, but i should growth nothat 50% of for volumes, but for the contributions of acquisitions made in the previous year, and clearly the diversification of a results,ds impact on then the contribution of volumes and volatility. so that is for q1. as i indicated earlier, the
month of april has been a bit slower clearly then march. but significantly higher than in april. does that mean you expect growth to level off? if half of that came from acquisitions, does growth then level off through the end of the year, or do you continue to make acquisitions to keep that kind of growth up? >> no, actually, we have recently made an acquisition in that market, which is the central depository of denmark. this should close in july. we signed this deal in the middle of the pandemic, and we continue to hunt for acquisitions, and acquisitions will continue to be a fundamental part of the growth of the company. even the volume driven part of
euronext, market share has increased. volumes and volatility were good for everyone. captured those volumes in her enough -- in terms of to capture massive doumes in march, and also to sophisticated yield management and to increase market share, and also something which is very ebita has grown more than revenues. combination of volumes and volatility, strong yield management with resilient investment in technology, plus diversification of the top line,
that makes good results of this quarter. >> can i ask you about the working from home impact on a business such as euronext? have you managed to work through the issues that might have thrown up? what percentage of people do you still have outside the office and expect to keep outside the office? >> initially during the coordinated or quasi-coordinated lockdown across europe, we had 98% of employees working from ,ome, and the peak volatility -- we had an operational stress test the month of march with high volumes. everybody working from home. i don't expect to make euronext a cloud company where everyone will work from home and every employee will become a self-employed consultant working from his dining room.
going forward, we will come back to some form of working from the office. ext'se: that was euron ceo. still ahead, the insurance market area i will speak with john neal of lloyd's of london. prudential down today, the worst performer in the ftse 100, down about 8% at the moment. lots of comments to point to the fact that it is a very negative environment for the insurers right now. here's where we are in the united states. the 10 year 1.3%, yield at 61 basis points, and a stronger dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
it is "on par with 9/11," and payouts could further swell lockdowns continue. we are joined by john neal, lloyd's of london ceo. a tough time for the insurance market. i am curious as to what your forecast breaks down too. you are talking about $200 billion losses for the industry come but that is underwriting as well as investment losses. can you break us down for us canada -- can you break it down for us? we have released our lost estimates, but also estimated what we think the cost of covid-19 is for the insurance industry globally. aut breakdown really into $100 billion that we think will be paid out over time in claims. that is the immediate impact of , and then the
inflationary impact on claims in the future. the asset value of those investments has fallen by about $100 billion. all of this could be a $200 billion loss, which, as you said in your introduction, dwarfs 9/11 or katrina or harvey. vonnie: will it be a big event for the industry? just pointing out in the last while that the industry is backed by something like $2 trillion of regulatory capital, so the industry should be able to withstand this pretty easily, no? john: without a doubt. i think the industry is solvent. the capital holdings of the industry are significantly above their minimum requirements. we are in excess of 200%. there's no doubting the industry's ability to pay the claims, but it is a significant earnings event for everyone.
vonnie: it is also broken up into the various categories. so event cancellations are about 1/3 of the cancellations. john: about 70% of the losses up around $4.3ill be billion, 70% in three categories. one is event categories come from the olympics to more local events. there's also quite a lot of proxy coverage. we are seeing about 30% of our loss will come from those claims. and obviously, credit, where we backed banks and credit institutions. there will be a credit crash as well, and some of the losses will come from that. vonnie: can you go into more detail about regions? the majority of your losses are in the united states, 45%.
where in the usa are you seeing the most losses? what type of insurance? john: we are not really a , so thedomestic insurer same categories we have talked about are those that apply in the u.s. but 50% of the worlds flow comes from the u.s., so we shouldn't be surprised to see those come from the u.s.. it is our charge to serve the customers of the u.s. to the best of our bloody. vonnie: you are also getting ready for the atlantic hurricane season, already almost beginning. what are you anticipating in terms of claims for the rest of the year and how that will impact business? we recapitalize in real time, the recognizing the impact , in advance of the
hurricane season, we are setting aside for what we into's bait will be a loss of activity. but we feel ok. we are certainly solvent, and we are able not only to futsal obligations for covid-19, but all of the other losses that will occur through the balance of 2020. vonnie: what is being looked for from your company, from lloyd's ?f london what kinds of claims are you fighting? we are seeing a huge argument in the u.s. between independent restaurants, for example, and insurers. john: it is very difficult, and i can understand the frustration from every quarter, where for many, and i think the majority, the business property cover does not cover interruptions. it is a very specific extension
that some have balked, but many haven't. so i can understand frustration. my recommendation would be that they speak to their brokers to really understand the coverage they've got and begin with discussions of what they might be able to do. it is for that reason that we have also released a paper discussing a number of ideas that we might be able to do to help if the pandemic comes back. we should not find ourselves in this situation again. or even whatever the next event might be. vonnie: these are interesting. i want you to go into detail about this recovery idea any moment, but i have to ask, is this an effort to be proactive so that you don't have to deal with any requests for back coverage this time, so that -- evenon't find that if it is not what we signed up for in the first place? it is not.john: no,
sadly, i remember the ebola crisis. there is a brilliant product developed by an insurer, and nobody bought the cover, so some of the covers just weren't bought less time around. i think it is important that at a point where customers understand the value of insurance and may be regret not buying the coverage they wish they had, that that problem doesn't occur again. sadly, where there isn't cover, there just isn't cover. there's not much we can do about that. -- thatreally wide is really what governments are stepping in. that is why we are stepping in now to make sure there are covers in place. vonnie: but is there a role potentially for you guys in being the middleman? with the understanding that government might make new holes, you allow businesses to access liquidity and cash and so forth before now so they can get
running before they no longer have any staff they can call on --any expertise, both for expertise, before everything goes to the wall? john: i agree. there's a lot of talk of a second wave or possibly a third wave of the pandemic. at very longo look term insurance cover. 10 years, 15 years, maybe 20 years. short term, the losses will be very significant again, so an insurer would need to have a long-term cover and confidence over time that there will be some financial sense in providing the cover. that is one of the ideas we put forward. that is why governments have stepped in. let's try to solve the problem going forward as we see it. vonnie: how many quarters before your business it's back to something reasonably some kind
of normality? prudential already saying forget about this quarter, and asia is looking terrible. nobody is buying any insurance products right now. for the marketplace, what do you see? going to bek it is difficult through 2020. i think it will be early 2021 by the time people have properly got their arms around the impact of the loss. i think the other thing, and it might sound a little incongruent to say this come about clearly, the industry we suffering losses, and that unfortunately will have an impact on price. prices in our industry will have to go up, so i think looking out and looking forward, difficult though this is to say, often, insurers rebound quite quickly. we have talked about those big events in the past. you tend to see a year or two, or possibly three, of very difficult results. more things being equal, the outlook should be positive. vonnie: how are you preparing
for people to go back to work? lloyd's of london is tory really -- is notoriously one of the places where people want to go into the offices. it is not exactly the most conducive to work from home environments out there. how are you preparing? john: it's a great question. we have been doing fine from bee, but we need to physically present as well. on of the opportunities we have been working with anyways is digitizing the marketplace, so when we do return, we will be working virtually as well. it will be driven by government positions, so our plan is to really show a phase return to work. we certainly don't see the famous underwriting room at ,loyd's opening before august and even then it will be distancing.on but we are trading efficiently at the moment. vonnie: thank you for your time
vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn this is "bloomberg markets."it is time to get a deep dive into the markets. we are seeing a little bit of improvement. here with more is kailey leinz. kailey: i want to focus on one stuck in particular, and that is norwegian cruise lines. it was lower by as much as 9% after its first quarter results, but has recovered a huge chunk of those losses.
the coronavirus has caused major disruption to norwegian's business. demand for cruises is really plummeting. the stock has lost about 80% of value your to date. as far as what the actual numbers were, when it comes to the top line revenue, it was down 11% year on year. the company reported a much greater than expected loss on the bottom line. i also expect net loss for the second quarter and the full year. plus, they are still burning about on hundred $20 million to $160 million per month. the good news is the company does have a lot of liquidity at this point. companies ceo said last week it can survive for about 18 months without any sailing, but norwegian does plan to start sailing again relatively soon, and the company said they are seeing demand for cruises beginning in the fourth quarter of this year and accelerating through 2021.
call just moments ago, the ceo said most of those is new money, not just rebooking of canceled trips. revenuehe company's comes from ticketing. caution,her note of caution,o analysts -- wells fargo analysts downgraded the stock, saying there is the risk of a second wave of covid-19 that could really impact demand in the later part of the year. plus, cautious tone coming from the president when it comes to travel, saying that international travel probably won't recover for a while, so that is probably weighing on the region as well, but it is only down about 3.5% now. that is your stock of the hour. vonnie: thank you for that. meantime, french president emmanuel macron planning to meet with the ceo of pharmaceutical
company sanofi after the ceo told bloomberg the u.s. would be first in line for the company's vaccine if it successfully developed one. he says the u.s. was the first to fund sanofi's vaccine research. let's bring in bloomberg reporter riley griffin for more. you spoke with the ceo that emmanuel macron wants to meet with. what were his arguments? where is the vaccine process in the first place? reporter: hudson told us the company's efforts to advance two potential vaccines against the novel coronavirus were going smoothly. it already has manufacturing infrastructure to be able to produce the vaccines, but the stakes are high in compressing the development timeline, what is essentially decades of work into a year. should the drugmaker succeed in
developing and delivering a vaccine against the virus, the u.s. will likely be first in line to get it, he told us. vonnie: that is the thing. who ends up deciding who is right? do we have any kind of read on how this is going to play out? yes, the u.s. put up some of the first money, but is there a sort of common good question here? is there a first in-line policy that needs to be abided by, or no? riley: there's no public friendly, -- there's no policy currently, but that is a question on everyone's mind. there is a concern for what people are calling vaccine nationalism, where countries are to avoidarma efforts the ultimate cost. the u.s. has coordinated its efforts.
-- has deployed hundreds of millions of dollars to vaccine makers like sanofi, johnson & johnson, and m -- and moderna. but what makes sanofi different is it sits in paris. so when hudson said the u.s. government has the right to the largest preorder because it has invested in taking that risk, that has certainly drawn a lot of attention and led the french president, among others to have concern. vonnie: is there a compromise here? can the french president offer to make facilities available so that sanofi could actually make double the number and let everybody have it at the same time? riley: i think only time will tell.
is thisg worth noting technology isn't readily advanced, and each vaccine in developing relies on different manufacturing infrastructure. it is not as easy as sharing i.t. with other facilities to be able to produce it because of those technical differences. so we are going to have to see how it plays out. but he did tell us he expects europe you only get the vaccine, should it prove successful, days or weeks later, but not too much later. thinking beyond the u.s. and europe, you have to consider what it means for other regions of the world. south america, africa. china is also a major player in the race for a vaccine. you have to wonder, should they come to market first, who will get it then? vonnie: exactly. and we are still probably months away from one anyway. our thanks to bloomberg health care reporter riley griffin. great reporting there.
vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." i am joined by bill baruch of blue line futures. will we see repetition this month of what happened with the oil contracts last month? bill: it doesn't seem like we will see a repeat from last month, but there are still demand worries. the iea echoed those this morning come about the same time, echoed a more watered down , and a better way. but ultimately, there still is a demand worry over the next 36
days, but the market has reacted very well. we are seeing crude oil rally , with the energy complex demand expected to come back online is economies in the u.s. and across the world start to ease lockdown restrictions. vonnie: what are you making of demand projections? we are getting different ones every day. at the same time, russia and saudi arabia seem to be mixing their messages. bill: i think the price action at these levels has priced in a perfect cut across the board. it is pricing in what opec is saying they are going to do and has done, and is pricing in about 1.4 million barrels per day and estimated drop in u.s. production.
so will we see the u.s. come back online? the market, as you look down the curve here, you are seeing december crude oil $30. at that point, it gives operators an opportunity to hedge. we could see u.s. production start to come back online over the next 30 to 60 days. here in the front month contract, there is very limited value. i do expect one more way down. however, i expect that wave lower is going to be more shallow than i anticipated. vonnie: what is the equity market waiting for next? which direction does it head? if it is the china narrative that continues to play, we are not looking at anything positive there. if it is jobless claims and the economy, we are not looking at anything very positive there. if it is d.c. and a similar bill, not much hope for that at
this moment either. so why is the equity market selling off? bill: the equity market is pricing in the massive stimulus we are seeing, whether physical or monetary. that is being digested right now. the economies reopening, and how smoothly those easing of lockdown restrictions play out, the reality is the markets overshot to the downside quickly and overshot to the upside. i think we are seeing equity markets settle in a little bit here, and that is important for fair value. ithink across the board, think we see a new low in treasury yields. i think gold and the dollar are going to see value. that is how we are positioning. and in china trade, there is a new chapter here. jobless claims today were definitely a point, but i thicket was president trump who
made a comment aimed -- but i think it was president trump who made a comment aimed towards president xi this morning, and tonight we get a deluge of data from china. all of that is going to play in, so it is going to be an interesting market here. vonnie: we are actually seeing those losses get pared back now. our thanks to bill baruch of blue line futures. it is time for your latest bloomberg business flash. in california, police visited tesla's only u.s. car factory to assess whether tesla is complying with safety protocols agreed to with local officials. elon musk dare to those officials to have them arrested. musk said he would reopen the factory despite orders to stay closed. virgin airways is pitching a rescue plan to 12 potential saviors. richard branson has promised to chip in.
the government rebuffed virgin's first application for state loans. among those who watched the presentation, deutsche bank and cerberus capital. american airlines bonds have fallen to new lows. that follows a report that demand for airline travel will lag for at least five more years. one analyst says the market sees american as a candidate for bankruptcy. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. coming up, we continue to follow these markets as we see big improvements now. let's have a look at where we stand globally. the dow is down 0.2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ staying connected your way is easier than ever.
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you're counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." a lot to digest today, including u.s. data and the reopening of economies continues. we are down, not as badly as we were, but still down about 2.4 percent for they stoxx 600. most major indexes were down more than 3.5% earlier on today. the miners down 1.4% of the group. we just heard from lloyd's of london, prudential also out earlier, basically writing off the second quarter. they all say it will get worse before it gets better. one of the bright spots, investment managers, 3i group and hargraves. they are up about 6%. we have the nasdaq still down about 1%, but the s&p 500 is down only about 0.5% right now.