tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg July 15, 2020 10:00pm-12:00am EDT
virus restrictions. it comes after some relief after giving revenue fell 90% for three months. the philadelphia fed sees a steep contraction in u.s. gdp this year and warns of a fiscal cliff ahead. our exclusive interview this hour. paul: here we go -- yvonne: here we go. what a beach. gdp year on year for the second yes, it wasng 3.2% for 2.4%. the range was quite wide. every thing from -3.1% deposit of 3.8%. if you look at this 3.2%, this is bette than all but two of what economists were expecting in terms of growth. sustainable is how this is. breakout --he breakdowns now. industrial coming in
at 4.8%, pre-much in line with expectations. -1.8%, worse than expected. retail sales are the weakest link in the recovering story in china. than what the market was expecting. property investment year to date coming in pretty much at 1.9%. versus an estimate of 1%. we also have the jobless rate coming in a tad better at 5.7% versus 5.9%. which was expected by the market. overall when you look at the economy, it looks like it is adding to signs the economy is picking up momentum. china probably will be reflecting in the rest of the world. yvonne: one of the key disappointments is still the
consumption side with retail side still amiss in a negative fringe for a fourth straight months of 120%. about theuestions back half of the year. but the gdp is still the stand out. take a look at the adjusted quarter on quarter. we are talking double digit growth of 11.5%. the highest quarter on quarter at least nine years for china. this is how we are seeing things play out in the markets. seeingike you are chinese stocks at least switch to the positive territory now. csi 300 up about .5%, but marginal gains. you have to wonder given the rally we have seen in mainland equities, has it all been priced in? have we gone beyond the fundamentals? china and send jen as well, things are cooling down -- china and shenzhen as well. lower by close to .5%.
watching other assets. see how the renminbi is doing. we have been hovering around the seven handle, now we are slightly below that right now. holding onto some strength. the korean yuan still seeing weakness. a press conference happening this hour. the bok already saying growth expected to be below projections they set back in may. aussie dollar also under some pressure still. digesting some jobless numbers out of australia. we are still hovering around the 69 sent mark for the aussie. chinese 10 year yield up three basis points, 298. reacting to positive news. before we got let's take a look at commodities. watching this oil story with opec-plus. that panel supporting an oil cuirvurve tapering. brent, holding
onto gains. copper futures getting more of a reality check under that eye-popping rally. most commodities lower after some concerns eased on the supply disruptions in south america. silver futures approaching $20. gold futures back up a little bit. not a lot of reaction on the china did it comes to commodities. back to ourt's get top story this hour. gdp gaining momentum. our next guest believes it is premature to conclude that china's economy is out of the woods. let's get announced from helen qiao, greater chinese economist at bank of america securities. good to have you with us. it does seem like growth is gaining momentum but it is pretty uneven. what is your greatest concern? helen: you are actually right. the reason why we think it is not out of the woods is because while we saw the second quarter was a significant step up from the first quarter, we are
talking about annualized growth being at its highest, 57%. but the problem is this is uneven. as a reopening continues, we are seeing on the manufacturing side, construction, have clearly gone up very quickly. we can see the rebound has been coming fast and furious. but at the same time as you already indicating, you can tell we are not doing that well. in particular it shows within consumption, especially consumption of discretionary services. probably still lagging behind. within retail sales, there's only a small component of that, dining out. if we look at the broader definition, it should also include high value-added services such as education, overseas travel, etc. but this component of consumption, i am afraid that it still lagging behind. so, between the two parts, consumption versus investment,
we think investment has done a better job, but consumption still dragging their feet, especially the remaining services. it's probably very slow in recovery because people still hold a fear against going out and traveling. services andime, general have been lagging. i'm afraid those services, face-to-face physical contact, are probably going to remain dormant for a while. that said, i have to say the second quarter data definitely shows the upside to gdp growth, and therefore i would say we will see china's gdp growth coming back quite soon. for the annual firms, definitely up 1.2%. but it is probably too early to say the third quarter in fourth quarter would be a much higher number than this. just a headline reporting that xi jinping says
fundamentals of china's growth will not change. this is on the back of xi responding one in response to a letter. he says fundamentals is intact. but if consumption is a long way off from the peak that we saw, surely fundamentals are not really that strong. helen: right. i am afraid that is the case. the problem is if we only see the industrial side of the recovery without necessary the consumer's demand holding up, i think that potentially will build into higher inventory. and potentially that could drag on later growth. at the same time, i think there are other worries outside of china. in particular if we look at the reopening in the rest of the world. i would say so far it is bumpy and uneven, especially in countries where we are seeing the second wave or first wave still continuing. it is hard to see how china can remain completely on its firm footing at a time when the rest of the world is still coping
with a very deep recession. so i think there are additional factors over here in combination that will probably keep our monitor on china very closely focused on services within consumption, and we think that this will be crucial to see whether china will be able to hold on to its stable growth path and set a trajectory in the last 20, 30 years has been so robust that we think this year is probably going to be a quite challenging year. yvonne: i am looking at the jobless rate in china. that seems to tick lower about 5.7% now. it's been pretty resilient, the headline numbers when it comes to jobs. is that an indication of what we are seeing on the ground, or do you think in a way this is a positive signal that perhaps the demand side can catch up with the supply side soon? moment, think at the
the consumption weakness is probably not so much caused by concerns of job security or income growth. probably bullet -- primarily due to people's concerns about going out and keeping social distancing rules come etc. -- rules, etc. so we think we are still in the honeymoon period. elsewhere, you probably have seen a much deeper correction because of such concerns being higher. but within china i would say that the very fact that unemployment rate is still relatively low and well below the annual policy target level at 6% is definitely good news in the sense that it will ensure households have the spending power going forward to continue to spend, and probably push consumption to a higher level. the one thing i want to highlight is the fact that june is a critical time, as well as
july. this is a time when college graduates are coming into the labor market, and we have more than 8 million of them. and this year is such a tough -- theat has given companies have frozen their headcount. fact that this number has been stable so far and hopefully still close to stable, may be the underlying situation, is very encouraging. but of course there is anecdotal data saying the underlying situation could be weaker than that. that is something we need to watch very closely. thise: you mentioned uneven recovery. why do you think the pboc has been sending some type of message that they are talking about potentially exiting stimulus? is that still premature? this ise think yes, probably too early to say that. but the policy complacency is
already arriving from a couple of things. number one, they are looking at the growth recovery, the numbers that fell already very much a short that the chinese economy has already rebounded from the very bottom. so the very bottoming out process happening so quickly, so effectively i think really gives them a lot of confidence that they do not have to people -- keep the stimulus in place much longer. i think there is also concerned about the potential consequences of putting into much easing measures so that afterwards, we would probably see buildup of higher leverage ratio. given what they did in 2015 and 2016, and there was a very high ofel of river ridge -- leverage increase, especially from the household sector and recovery sector, i think that is of particular concern for pboc. and therefore they do not want to keep easing measures in place for too long. that said, i think the problem is that we do not think the
second half is completely roadblock-free for the chinese economy. i think the very trouble we are seeing is externally, we still see the potential headwinds strengthening from the uneven and bumpy reopening elsewhere and we are probably not necessarily going to see such a strong boost to our export numbers, especially from the electronics sector and possibly medical supplies. if that is the case, than most of the burden will be on domestic demand to grow for the gdp growth. for domestic demand, consumption is not completely on its firm footing yet. so i think this is a bit premature to think about it complete exiting. hopefully we can keep this relatively supportive environment for a little longer. but we want to highlight the fact that bond yields have already risen so much, and borrowing costs in general will be slowly rising as well.
so this is definitely a concern. we need to keep in mind that policymakers in china hopefully would keep the overall stance for longer so people would be happy to spend and corporate would be happy to invest. thank you so much for your great analysis, helen qiao. covid-19 continues to surge in the u.s. with california reporting near record cases and fatalities good nationwide numbers rose 2% with death stopping 136,000. walmart is now requiring shoppers to wear masks in stores. with so-called health ambassadors at the entrance to ensure compliance. their decision follows a similar moves by starbucks, cosco and best buy. president trump is indicating cooler tensions with china, ruling out additional sanctions on senior officials for the time
being. -- it told the decision came before he signed the hong kong autonomy act on tuesday and is different from his combative tone he has struck in recent weeks. the bank of korea has let interest rates on hold amid signs the economy is slowly emerging from the coronavirus pandemic. the b.o.k. held the rate at 0.5%. the decision falls -- follows an improvement in unemployment rates and recent signs business and consumer confidence is improving. it also helps to curve a boom in property prices. still ahead, casino stocks saw a bump after the easing of quarantine restrictions in macau, but as morningstar investment -- will take axt, we deeper dive into china's gdp numbers and how it will set the direction for markets today. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
in our let's bring bloomberg team. let's talk more about the gdp numbers. seems like this was better than expected, at least when it comes to the headline second-quarter gdp numbers. saw a bit of a spike in chinese stocks but we are heading back lower now. >> yeah. i see that. number the gdp headline is good. basically it reflects the broader pent-up demand. this -- given a clear upturn and pmi turnaround.
measuring consumption and bank lending and retail, railways, traffic. it shows a nice rebound in the economy. i see retail sales, the consumption data is not as strong as anticipated. this is a bit of a disappointment. but it is improving. the slump is getting less. important -- it is saving the economy billions of dollars and they are doing it at a drastic level. discount income everything going on. support for a more domestic consumption stimulus. this rebound is really limited
to china. see overnight we have very good u.s. data on industry production. they all beat expectations. this week we had some good korean data too. iner nations followed china their recovery. so i think in case of external recovery momentum in china will be maintained in the second half. i understand there is some risk from outside. this clouds the outlook. unless we have broad lockdowns , --n recovery momentum in china will
recurrent -- will continue. whopping 8% next year. yvonne: thank you so much for your insight. more one you can follow our markets live blog on the bloomberg. you can get a market run down in just one click. is can find out what affecting your investments right now. theinda: still to come, philadelphia fed president warns of a 6% contraction in usd gdp this year and sees a fiscal cliff ahead. our exclusive interview with patrick harker is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
the philadelphia fed is revising its growth forecast for the u.s. economy, given a resurgent of the virus in hotspots there. patrick harker gave us his outlook on the recovery. patrick: the manufacturing sector has not bounced back. we saw our last report last month. we are seeing some good news there. particularly the city of philadelphia itself is from modly meds -- predominantly meds, and i'm concerned about those. not just a large medical institutions which have lost a lot of revenue because of elective procedures, but also in the rural communities. those rural systems have been hurt quite badly. >> what about the overall u.s. economy? now that we have seen this flareup across much of the
country, are you advising your economic forecast? patrick: prior to this we saw a pretty big hit in the first half of this year, probably about 25% gdp in the first half. we thought it would bounceback around 13 in the second half commending around 6% down in gdp for the year and unemployment around 10%. we are revising it now because with the virus surging in the south and southwest of the country, we are very concerned about that. until we get the virus under control, we cannot get the virus -- country back on track. >> you came up as an educator. how important is it to get the schools open? how important to the economy this fall? patrick: it is very important. but we have to do it carefully. because we do not want to put people at risk. a childcare in
business about half the childcare institutions, many of them are small. about half of them closed. leastmaining ones lost at 50% capacity in remaining open. so this is simply if people cannot find care for their children or be able to get their children to school, they are going to have a hard time working. particularly in the knowledge economy where people's productivity is really their knowledge. if they are concerned about their children and that is weighing on their mind, it is human nature that they will be less productive. it is very important. we cannot do it in a way that puts the children or the communities at risk. >> obviously a lot of risk for the economy that did not seem to be reflected in equity prices. are you concerned about the level of stocks at this point and whether it is a state where we might be seeing a bubble that could pop and take the economy with it. patrick: the equity market, the stock market is a measure we look at.
i also remind myself it is not the real economy. for me as a policymaker, i am looking at the signals coming from the real economy. employment data, inflation data and so forth. that is my main concern right now. >> do you think there is any role for the fed and perhaps controlling the rise of equities at this point? patrick: at this point, we had to act early and aggressively to help stem the damage from this unprecedented pandemic. so that was job one. now as we start to climb out of this, hopefully sooner rather than later, we will address other issues. but we had to act to secure the economy and help save as much of the economic infrastructure in the country as we could. >> what more can the fed do? it was suggested yesterday you let the economy run hot for a while and explicitly saying you are going to let inflation rise. is that a strategy on the table for you? patrick: we have been saying a
in newa: it is 10:29 york. karina: new zealand inflation slowed in the second quarter following to the low end of the target range is the covid-19 lockdown stalled of the economy. consumer prices fell half a percent from the march period. they launched qe to support the economy. infection numbers continue to rise. stay undera will
general community quarantine until at least the end of the month which allows most businesses to remain open. tokyo has raised its virus warning to the highest level, and new zealand is preparing for a new infection surge. china says it is ready to take action against the u.s. for ending hong kong's special trading status. beijing says the law violates international legislation and is a gross interference in its internal affairs. the foreign ministry says if the u.s. proceeds with a stance on hong kong, china will take appropriate action against american individuals and entities in response. the trump administration is preparing to impose visa restrictions on some huawei employees or china's abuse of human rights against muslims and other minorities. secretary of state mike pompeo says global telecom companies are now on notice that if they work with huawei. it is not clear who might be targeted or how many. while mostly symbolic, it is the latest attempt to limit huawei's
reach. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mitchell. this is bloomberg. still ahead, a lot to tell you about. japan currently up 35% after its ceo said it is on talks on oled investments. we will bring you details on that as we get them. we also have the b.o.k. governors saying global uncertainty is rising again on virus concerns. we had the b.o.k. keeping its rates steady at 0.5%. the governors saying global uncertainty has risen again. of course the focus for the what. is keen to know measures they can deploy, perhaps unconventional measures if the economy were to worsen. the rate isays lower bound.
yvonne: we also have a press conference from the national bureau of statistics in china after that gdp data we got. better-than-expected across the board except for retail sales, which were disappointing. we are getting some lots -- lines of saying the global economy faces great difficulties in its restart and the national bureau of statistics sees big pressure to stabilize employment. they say the economy has the base to recover further in the second half. they are expecting perhaps that this momentum can carry on, but there are still a lot of questions just how china can keep going at this alone as the rest of the world is stalling. something they are also cautioning at the moment. taking a look at the markets, we are seeing chinese equities extend losses after better-than-expected data. seems like it has all been priced in. the market really just focusing on perhaps taking some profits after the stunning rally we have seen in chinese rallies. asia-pacific lower by 1%.
u.s. futures under some pressure. nifty futures as well. chinese markets in particular, you are seeing 1% losses for the hang seng. as well as your h-shares today. hang seng down about 287 points. the 10 year yield actually now heading lower by one basis point to 294. seems like we saw a little reversal quickly. a brief spike after the numbers then we headed back lower. take a look at what we are watching in terms of stocks, as well as other assets. we have been watching oil prices. the renminbi. and of course with the reaction has been from this. renminbi has actually been slightly weaker, still below the seven handle. all cn snapping three days of grains -- gains. korean yuan, continuing to see that weakness after the b.o.k. comments coming from the governor there.
just dropping from the b.o.k., the governors saying they are to buy government bonds if volatility rises. so we have seen a bit of the qe hints from the b.o.k., a lot of questions about whether they will directly buy government bonds are not. also talking about macro prudential tools needed for how they market as well. that is what we are watching when it comes to south korea. brent crude around $43.56, a little bit of slippage. taking a look at other movers, let's look out for some of these trading debuts, because they certainly have been quite robust in hong kong and china. smic, that is the big one in the h-share markets, debuting on the star board. 210% higher. this is the biggest ipo we have seen in a decade in china. .75%.bank lower by about
cansino announcing they will be debuting in the star board as well. h-shares down about 6.5%. we are also watching these casino stocks, after china agreed to lift its 14 day quarantine requirements put in place back in late march for travelers returning from macau. so they are heading lower here today. but this announcement we saw earlier, this should provide some relief for macau's gaming industry, which solve revenue fall by more than 90% for three straight months. joining us now is chelsey tam. this is theaying start of some type of recovery. province of the casino industry in macau, how big of a boost the you think this announcement can have on growth gaming revenue moving forward? chelsey: yes. i think it is correct that they --
[indiscernible] it collectively accounted for maybe one third of arrivals. definitely good news. i think it is good news in the sense that i guess this time we do not actually have to wait for hong kong for it to happen. results, you can travel to macau. i think it is all pretty good news here. think the market has been expecting some type of recovery for a while. some were expecting it would happen in may or june. now that is happening in july. generally it is later than asked -- than expectations, but it is still a good start. in terms of improvement in gaming revenue, i think it will probably still decline maybe
over 18% with this new rule because i think there is still a lot of inconvenience for people. for example as i said, they have to get the test results, you have to get the scan code, you have to report your health status after you arrive. so i think we are still waiting for more policy support or more opening of the border. in terms of the recovery prospects then, when will we be back in running when it comes to these casinos to the precrisis levels? is this a 2020 story, or next year? chelsey: i certainly do not think it is i 2020 story. i think they were more bearish than the consensus was. we are forecasting that even in 2021 it will be a bit lower than a bit lower than at 2019 levels.
now that you see a resurgence of new cases in hong kong or some other parts of the world, i think there is a lot of uncertainty here. and i think we also have to be macau, there is some capacity restraints. for example, no standing is allowed. you need a seat between two gambling seats. things like that. capacityk a bit of structuring will mean it will delay the recovery process. i am looking at your stock picks. you are liking lng, galaxy, and wynn. why is that? i think iirst of all, have a long-term perspective. in the long term we like the whole sector, the whole gaming sector. every single name.
terms of catalysts, galaxy, they have upcoming openings. more favorable in that sense. so they will see growth coming. hopefully next year if everything runs smooth with covid and the construction and things like that. the other thing is that for galaxy and wynn, i think they have the highest contribution from the ip. if you look at 2019, high 40's of contribution is coming from vip. so we continue to think that vip will rebound faster than the mass market. i think it is just because it takes probably a much longer individual charts to
happen. with business visas and things like that, it is more likely for and gamble.o come you do not need a lot of vip to drive revenue. so we feel quite bullish with vip in the near term. haslinda: a headline to tell our viewers about. twitter says it has taken steps to limit access to internal systems. accounts thated were compromised and will restore access to the original account owner later on. of course this is on the back of accounts, thep likes of barack obama, joe biden. twitter saying it has taken steps to limit access to its internal system. said despite the fact china has a strong balance sheet, that the future --
why not? chelsey: you are talking about since china, right? haslinda: yes. chelsey: yeah. haslinda: it is not among your top picks. chelsey: sorry, what? haslinda: it is not among your top picks. why is that? chelsey: if you are talking about china, why we think it is undervalued, i think going forward, we are going to see -- they completed construction faster than expected. it probably takes 2021 or 2022 for everything to really get started and ramp up. so i think in the near term maybe there will be a bit of
market share weakness compared to fjm. but in the long-term term we are quite bullish on the mass gaming revenue. it is the one that has the highest mass exposure. londonbullish on the development. i think in the long term it will still be a great stock to own. i think given they have a lot of non-gaming investment, i think it is still quite favorable to renew the license. analysts liket of yourself are looking at the golden day holiday. do you think this will be a positive driver for macau this year? when it comes to this resurgence of cases in hong kong, d.c. that affecting macau too? chelsey: hong kong actually accounts for maybe 18 to 90% -- 80% of 90% visitation to macau.
the current covid situation continues in hong kong, we can expect that the border will not be open and the quarantine policy will still be in place. so that traffic might be gone. i think it is still a bit far away. like the golden wick. i think honestly right now with the market should really focus about borders opening. if there is no border opening, inquarantine, ease quarantine policy, i think even if we have a major holiday, i don't think on a year-over-year we --we can see - i thnk the key is the quarantine policy. and the covid situation.
haslinda: want to give you an update on the twitter situation after that hack that really impacted the accounts of barack obama, joe biden, jeff bezos. it was apparently a way to promote a bitcoin scam. seems like twitter now is coming out and saying that they have locked the compromised accounts. they detected a coordinated social engineering attack. and they are saying they will take steps to limit the access to these internal systems and restore access to the original owner when it is secure. but it was interesting that in the tweet tag that they were asking people to send $1000 and i will double your money through bitcoin and whatnot. people actually did it. there were hundreds of thousands of dollars passing through here. some people do get tricked by this. haslinda: it is about making a quick buck. these days it is all about making money as fast as you can.
industry is stunning when you look at the scope and breath of it. it looks like it is a coordinated effort. some of the accounts used two factor authentication, strong passwords. it suggests they were using twitter's own web application. you get a sense twitter has to be held responsible in some way for this. yvonne: right. they are saying they are looking at this malicious activity now so they have locked down the impacted accounts. those are verified accounts, and they could not even tweet, but i think that is open now. so feel few -- feel free to tweet away. meanwhile, asian chipmakers in sharp focus today. the taiwan semi conductor is on the retreat ahead of earnings. let's get more from debbie wu. good morning.
[indiscernible] capex will also be in focus. spending $16 billion for 2020. that will be important. the company is trying to grapple with the global economy amid the pandemic. but they said they saw strong for chips for data centers that hold online activities. surge in then a virus outbreak. banne: what about the u.s. on businesses with huawei? how will that impact the company? [indiscernible]
they will try to apply for a u.s. license to continue to ship to huawei, which record -- accounts to 40% of open all revenue. the chairman has tried to allay concerns. told shareholders in june that while the country -- [indiscernible] yvonne: debby wu joining us. i think the last 19 sessions it has only been down for three days. certainly it has been a run after we reached that record high for the stock. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
experience because we have 10 years of experience. we have heard a lot of voice from the customer which has reflected this car as a new dedicated electric vehicle platform. which also has a lot of the .issan good technology of course the electrified vehicle. it's all in this car. chapterpen nissan's new and provide the customer the excitement of the car. moreover, given the excitement to the customer can make our employees happy. that makes me most happy. so this is really, really for us to make ourselves towards the era ofa of peace on, a --
nissan. >> what will be the most attractive? price? features? range >> everything. if i had to tell, look at this car over there. it's red. don't you think that color is beautiful? we have a lot of new technology to make this very attractive. -- the car me even can be connected with you. when you are not driving, that can be a battery. we want this card to be a part of the customer's life, and that is the value we are providing. i believe and i hope the customer -- as this is coming from 10 years experience, which i believe this is one of the strengths about nissan. >> what is the main competition
going to be when it comes to other electric vehicles in the market already? >> of course we are providing this at the most competitive segment suv crossover. strength in the crossover segment. those combine our essence. would like to give good value. that is why we are saying this is a new chapter. be launchingl new ev's after this. what are they going to look like a focus on? >> this is not just one ev. it is part of our strategy. dedicateduipped with -- we are going to carry over into this system and providing what
ev feels like to the customer. this is very important for us to make the valley of the nissan -- the value of the nissan. that was the nissan president and ceo there on their next ev suv. take a look at market. watching what has been going on in the chinese markets after the gdp dump we saw. yes, it looks good, everything but retail sales. investors taking the opportunity to really sell when it comes to consumer staples. health care names as well. the consumer sector much taking the big tick, down from 4.2%. you are seeing big losers falling from 5% right now as well. you are not seeing a lot of optimism in light of what we have been seeing with these numbers, which still beat most estimates.
haslinda: it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets: asia. janet returning to growth in the second quarter. -- china returning to growth in the second owner. -- quarter. haslinda: retail sales were a miss falling, almost 2% last month. consumer stocks are selling off. down sharply in shanghai.
rishaad: a little retail therapy at reliance. turning attention to a more traditional unit after raising billions. we will ask with the plan is now. it isda: it looks like risk-off sentiment in the markets right now given the disappointing retail numbers out of china. even though gdp came in better than expected. we have the h index currently down by .9%. beginning momentum in terms of losses. 37% asian stocks from the year to date low. s&p futures pointing to a lower open. swept forhy of being the year as much as 31% to before coming back with a big, big rally. nikkei futures pointing to a lower open. and we have the dollar currently at 12.04 right now.
.1%.r slightly a bad about down by about 1%. china's gdp coming in ahead of expectations after that historic contraction of 6.8% in the first quarter. disappointment and retail sales. chinex, 1%. som governmente -- john is looking to cool the red-hot market. china has been rising faster than ever before. .9967.ooking at 6 dollarrengthened yuan parity rate by 69. china 10 year at 2.94. where we are in terms of the commodity market, in particular trumpasing after
suggesting he does not want to add sanctions against chinese officials. easing tensions with beijing. also in focus, extending the rally since the highest since 2016. surging since its collapse in march. copper futures down by .6%. copper suffering from a security check. fundamentals remain strong but bearish near-term. rishaad: just getting some headlines coming from the reserve bank of new zealand. also taking a look at what the governor of the bank of korea has been saying. comments withat china saying they will be on a steady downward trend coming to second-half inflation. the bank of korea saying they mann -- may use non-rate tools. more unconventional policies to
essentially deal with the coronavirus. talking about the bonds held by foreigners, 29.9%. lee saying there's not currently a discussion on post coronavirus steps. talking of coronavirus, let's find out where we are in the latest of the global pandemic. covid-19 continues to surge in the u.s. with california reporting near record numbers. nationwide numbers rose to almost 3.5 million with deaths topping 136,000. walmart now requiring shoppers to wear masks and stores. -- in stores. it follows a similar moves by other companies. philippines extending coronavirus restrictions around manila for another two weeks as infection numbers continue to rise. metro manila will stay under
what is deemed general community quarantine until the end of the month at least, which allows most businesses to remain open. new zealand is preparing for a new infection surge. president trump indicating cooler tensions with china, ruling out additional sanctions on senior officials for the time being. we are told his decision came before he signed the hong kong autonomy act on tuesday. in contrast with the combative tone he has struck. the white house is set to have drawn up a list of chinese officials to be sanctioned, including hong kong leader carrie lam. nevertheless, china says it is ready to take action against the u.s. for ending hong kong's special trading status. they say the law violates international legislation and is a gross interference in its internal affairs. before ministry says if the u.s. proceeds with its stance on hong kong, china will take appropriate action against american individuals and entities in response.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haslinda: let's get back to our top story. the chinese economy returns to growth in the second quarter, marking an important milestone in the global struggle to recover from the virus pandemic. our next guest says she is relatively optimistic. let's bring in mo ji./ mo, good to have you with us. why the optimism when retail sales disappointed in a big way? sales, it is about consumption and services. people from china are so worried because this is how coronavirus
develops. [indiscernible] rishaad: quickly a bit of news coming through from the u.k. 5g auction that takes place, they want the option to be scrapped after the british government's move to scrap huawei as a partner. we have that crossing. let's get back now to mo. how much of the retail sales in disappointment is down to two factors. one, the level of unemployment the much higher than official statistics. do tell us. secondly, how people who have gone back to work have found their wages have been curtailed too? it is not only because they
see consumption has been prohibited by the covid-19 epidemic. it is also because income in china has been down. in real terms that is down over 2%. this is why people do not have that much money to spend. [indiscernible] people over 600 million with only 1000 yen. [indiscernible] true that thet it recovery has been slower than expected because infrastructure investments have been drip drip? china can afford to do better. mo: absolutely. china can do much better. [indiscernible]
one of the reasons is covid-19. metal workers cannot go back to work. 50% april and may, about could work, now it's only 70%. major construction workers. june and julyee time a slide. also prohibiting. this is why it is not as strong. [indiscernible] haslinda: you touched on the flood. how damaging can it be? they are saying it will hurt
weakening economy. why? expansion in china is hitting the peak. expansion in china has never been bad. covid-19, on top of cingeconomy is fav pressure. if china is opening up with globally so many covid-19 cases, it's big pressure. this is why the second half the risks are there and they are very big. this we quires the government to do policy easing. rishaad: mo, thank you so much
since 2010. mainland listing coming amid intense competition between china and the u.s. for global text from is a. global techng -- supremacy. swatch saying interest is back to above pre-virus levels. the companies saw double digit year growth in may and june. watch shares globally dropping 43%, forcing job losses and store closures. apple celebrating a tax victory in europe, but still facing additional regulatory threats including antitrust investigations and new laws that could train -- change the way it operates in the single market. the eu general court ruling apple does not have to pay about $15 billion in back taxes, denying the european -- in respect of this legal
judgment, there's a fundamental question about tax fairness. how it can be considered fair largestof the globe's companies could pay at most 1% tax on european profits, and in many years, substantially less than 1%. they have one goal -- fighting the pandemic inflicted on the economy by the coronavirus. --re they differ is why are what needs to be done. kathleen hays as more. let's start in asia. the bank of korea standing study. the bank of indonesia expected to cut rates. what is driving these decisions? kathleen: certainly both of them have one big factor, and that is the pandemic. the amount of damage it has inflicted on their economies, and what is likely to happen next. all --ey did have in a
all time low of 0.5%. that is what was expected. the economy has shown some signs. unemployment not as high as it was, consumer at her betting not quite as weak. even exports are not falling as much. what will happen next? let's look at what the governor said at the press conference. importantly, he said that gdp is going to fall short of their forecast in may for a decline of 0.4%. be slower than the forecast. noted the big increase in property prices. the housing market particularly in seoul has been soaring. another reason why people said to cut rates again and fuel that, but no reason to signal anything but maintaining that stimulus for now. ,s we turn to banking indonesia
they are also expected to cut the key rate in a very close call. if you take a look at this lovely pie chart, it shows you that 18 of 30 economists see a 25 basis point cut to 4%, for a stricken straight cut in a row. 11 see them holding steady. one economist surveyed sees a 50 50 basis rate point cut. 2.9% annualized in the first quarter. indonesia, 5%-plus for years. inflation under 2% in june, below the target. another sign demand is waning. 12% fromhing, rupee up a 22 year low in march. seems like a slamdunk.
big surprise they do not cut. even a bigger surprise if they do the 50 basis point cut. rishaad: european central bank investors watching big u.s. data points that should be key to the fed's economic outlook. let's start with christine lagarde at the helm of the ecb and what she may or may not do later today. i think there is a mold. if you announce a lot of stimulus, cut rates to zero or negative, if you are buying trillions of bonds, what more can you do? the prices persist. definitely christine lagarde is inspected to say we are going to retain our emergency bond program. they came out with all guns firing, the 1.35 trillion euros. they will maintain that and negative rates. maintain generous loans to banks. i think what will be interesting
is the press conference. they are going to say, are you guys doing enough? do more be able to monetary stimulus if the pandemic continues to weigh on the economy? if things stay as they are or get worse? another big question hanging over europe is the eu needing to approve the recovery frond -- fund on friday. people are still wondering if the north versus south are going to get that through. so that is a big question there. christine lagarde will be asked about that as well. as for the u.s., a couple big numbers. jobless claims. they were up so high, 7 million in one week at the beginning of the crisis in the lockdown slam in the u.s. economy. we are looking for 1.2 5 million this week, a little lower than 1.3. retail sales supposed to be up 5% after the crazy 17% increase. patrick harker from the philly
was interviewed on bloomberg today and he said because the fed should not even think about raising rates or inflation over the 2% target. it is around 1% or .5% now. he is worried about a slow recovery in the labor market. three fed speakers tomorrow will speak. all these numbers are piling up. investors watching them very closely. i think the surprise positive or negative in the numbers could definitely be a factor for markets. economics andal policy editor kathleen hays in new york. later today, we will bring you the ecb policy decision and updates from the news conference. that starts at 7:45 p.m. in hong kong. still to come on the show, the numbers roll in from the wall street, where goldman traders posted the best results in years. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
call it a bond boom. 93%man sachs a surprising surge in stock and bond trading blew away estimates. similar windfalls by jp morgan and citigroup. su keenan has been tracking the bank earnings. the trading gains were something like $2.5 billion more than analysts expected. give us the lowdown. su: that is because trading revenue almost doubled in underwriting fees for goldman jumped to a record. the earnings results showed it clearly made the very most of the historic rebound in the second quarter, after the fed poured trillions of dollars of stimulus into the market. look at just a few of the numbers to stand out. trading,s fixed income
as i mentioned more than doubled billion, the highest in nine years. the equity unit had its best showing in 11 years. these kind of gains combined to propel goldman's revenue to the second-highest mark ever for the firm. net income rose to a slight surprise increase from a year ago. let's take a look at profit. billion. that also blew away analyst's estimates for $3.95 a share. a couple other standout areas, their large investment portfolio also rode the rebound. firm's commodity unit has been on a hot streak. specifics, butve that is clear oil traders that goldman rode that unprecedented rise from when it was below zero
all the way by -- backup to $40. york.da: su keenan in new includingngs do later numbers from bank of america and norman -- morgan stanley. kong after the bell in mumbai. netflix at 4:00 p.m. in new york. netflix revealing its biggest blockbuster for the first time in a top 10 list that provides the clearest picture yet of what types of movies are scoring a win for the streaming service. "extraction,"des followed by "bird box" and "6 underground." let's have a look at what is going on because of course we market upon us.
what is happening with regards to data we have just about 90 minutes ago. seeing at the moment what this data shows an uneven recovery. the highlight perhaps is growth was slower than forecasted. 3.2% positive. negatively retail sales trying to rebound, but still negative. seeing that at the moment contracting. as a result we have a lot of retail-related groups under the depression. onsumer staples, 4.6% down the csi 300. telecom services, information technology, 2.2% down. tear, care has been on a that index is having perhaps some froth taken off of it. 3.2% down. this is the big story of the day. at one stage nearly 250% up. on its debut.
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haslinda: we are looking at live pictures of the lion city. almost 11:30 a.m. in singapore. the middle of the trading day, the sti is slumping along, drag down by large-cap stocks the likes of comfort del grove. these companies give a sense of where the country is in its recovery story. gdp slumping the most since independence. we saw a contraction of more than 40% in the second quarter. the sti down .5% right now. let's get the first word headlines with you.
coosche bank's new asia will be based in singapore, a move seen as a step for hong kong after a volatile year. alexander is relocating from frankfurt. , hishe takes the reins contract says he will retire in -- deutsche's had about 1000 staff in hong kong last year. china returned to growth in the second quarter, an important marker in the struggle to recover from the coronavirus shutdown. 3.2% in june, reversing a decline of 7% in the first quarter and meeting the estimate of 2.4%. output is still down more than 1.5% on the same period last year. rateise share fell in late after some of america's most
prominent figures had their accounts hacked. bill gates, elon musk, joe biden, and others appeared to send almost identical tweets about bitcoin. uber and apple accounts posted similar tweets. twitter says it is aware of the security incident and most accounts should now work again. rishaad: digital investment platforms appear to be on the rise. experts saying the covid-19 crisis is proving robo advisors could successfully navigate an economic drought on -- economic downturn. you could think of them as being autopilot for investors, making decisions about how to invest money. businesses that have not implemented digitization may not be around in five to 10 years. kelly driscoll is our guest, board director at fusion acquisition core company, which went public a few weeks ago.
thanks for joining us. tell us about your role in robo advisory and what you are interested in. >> robo advisory is just one at temple -- one example of investments we are looking at. a spack is a company formed to raise capital at an ipo and use its proceeds to acquire business. the acquired business basically listing andspack's becomes a public company. that's how i am involved. i am a director of fusion acquisition corporation. it is an exciting time to be involved in a spack. they are dominating the u.s. ipo market. there has been around 43 deals raising a total of $14.5 billion, which compares to a
total of $13.6 billion for all of 2019. fact thatok at the fusion acquisition corporation has completed its ipo, we are ech andfocusing on synt financial services sectors that can it benefit from advancements in technology in addition to the robo technology we have seen for a while and which continues to grow. rishaad: in other words, it is a reverse merger, allowing these companies to get a listing. how would that work in terms of syntech? you have some companies on your radar right now that you are looking at acquiring in that manner? >> that's right. we listed on the new york stock raisege and wanted to
$250 million and we closed our ipo on june 30, raising $350 million. the real work begins as we look or an acquisition target. syntechocused on because we think there are tremendous opportunities in this space. , which cofounded syntech started out as a robo advisor. he founded that with zach allen. he basically thought about robo advice and the technology they needed to develop to provide robo advice to clients. when talking with clients and prospects, they saw there was even greater need for technology to help clients advance their businesses, become more cost-efficient, and address evolving needs from onboarding to regulatory requirements.
this is what we see in the syntech space, the ability to become more efficient, reduce costs, and better serve customers. rishaad: fundamentally are these robo advisors any better than traditional fund managers? >> it is predominantly a way to manager,replace a fund it is a way to provide a sort of a way to of tools in the hands financial advisors, investment advisors, put tools in the hands of investors directly. it as anot see replacement, more of a supplemental tool to help people
manage their portfolios and help investment management firms make their businesses more efficient. haslinda: the current market rally is driven by sentiment. we know robo advisors are devoid of sentiment, devoid of emotions. they would have missed out on this rally. >> i'm not sure they would have missed out. basically when you think about sentiment and all the disruption going on, really when you think about technology you think about technology, if you will, as a tool. when you think about it across the financial services industry, it is a growth driver across a whole vertical. ,f we look at the pandemic dramatically it has increased our reliance on technology. overnight it has changed how we
work from home, how we educate our children, how we buy groceries, do our banking, socialize with friends, manage our investments. it has forced unprecedented change in our behavior. it has heightened our awareness for advancements in digitization and ai. this is where we see not just robo advisors, but the technology they bring and the technology advancements where they can create an additional tool to further leverage businesses' growth. haslinda: i want to touch on your future clients, gen z. some surveys have shown gen z is very comfortable managing their money online, but when it comes to advice, they want it to be face-to-face. where is demand going to come from in the future?
>> i think it's a good point. don't think of it as a replacement, but think of it as an additional tool so it can span the range of investors as well asclusively financial advisors and other high touch services using it as a back office to help them become more efficient and provide higher touch to their clients. rishaad: thanks so much for joining us. kelly driscoll from fusion acquisition corp. talking about the role of robo advisory. let's move to guggenheim global -- the guggenheim global chief investment officer. he says monetary policy will remain loose enough to drive risk assets hi. he is also warning of a stock bubble. he talked about companies
continuing to add debt despite the risk of insolvency rising. >> when you look at the market and consider there are five stocks that represent almost 30% of the total valuation, we did an analysis that shows the relative pricings of the earnings yield versus the yield on their corporate bonds. if you define that those prices of the stocks are largely being driven around by changes in bond yields, the same thing is true across the board, but those five stocks have driven a lot of the appreciation while value in other sectors have lagged behind. it is clearly a function of federal reserve policy. thinke near term, i don't
there is any end in sight in terms of the fed wishing to drive rates lower for corporate debt. we should expect stocks will continue to go higher. i am on the record as saying i thought this was a bubble. it looks like the bubble that we lived through in the late 1990's. 1998, thell that in era of irrational exuberance, according to then-chairman alan greenspan, and the rally went on for two more years. the nature of bubbles are is that they go along and are hard to predict how they end. ultimately there is probably money to be made in the stock market that i think risk-adjusted returns are better off than high-yield and corporate bonds. haslinda: you just wrapped up a meeting with the new york federal observed -- federal.
if we continue to see stocks elevate, how comfortable is the central bank with optimism reflected in the stock market versus the real economy? >> the fed is very tightlipped in these conversations. i think they want to understand it. i don't think they are sure whether to think of it as a bubble or not a bubble. one of the comments made at the meeting i thought was very interesting is, how will we know if this is a bubble? the answer is after the stock market crashes. the's not to say it implies stock market will crash, but its equity evaluations remain higher and we have an abrupt setback, that would be the definition of a bubble. haslinda: in terms of catalyst for the setback, we have something coming up at the end of this month, patrick harker talking about a fiscal cliff.
he made the comments to mike mckee. you talk to people in washington. what's the likelihood this will get resolved in time to prevent that kind of catalyst or setback that could lead to a crash? >> washington is a hard animal to predict these days. i do know that other than a payroll tax holiday, there really isn't much on the table coming out of the administration. congress will be back for two weeks. risknk there is a great that there will not be a deal perhaps we could extend unemployment benefits by a couple of more months. candidly, a lot of senators, republican senators, don't think that's necessary. the risk is high and we are in a seasonally weak time for risk assets. i think the possibility of a
haslinda: we are counting down to the market open in india. it is a risk off sentiment on the back of china's disappointing retail numbers earlier, despite a peak for gdp. they have been finding it hard to get above 200. this week the sensex opened up by 1%. it continues to gain momentum in gains for the year. it is up 40% in terms of its rebound is march. nifty pointing higher as well, up by .5%. nifty bank index lower by about .1%. let's take a look at where we are in terms of the i.t. place, those tech stocks after info systems posted profits above expectations.
they are still grappling with pandemic lockdowns and travel restrictions that have confined employees to home, but it did beat expectations, surging by more than 9%. pretty mixed picture in terms of the other attack plays -- other tech plays. tech mahindra up by 2.7%. down by abouto 1.5%. it was one of the first to be out with results last week. rishaad: looking at this company, after raising more than $20 billion for its digital venture in three months, the billionaire is readying its retail unit for global partners. >> shareholders, today the world recognizes our hyper growth, inclusive, retail, and newcomers market. we have received strong interest from investors to invest in
reliance retail. we will induct global partners and investors in reliance retail in the next few quarters. i will keep you informed about the progress of reliance retail, which is at the doorstep of continued exponential growth. rishaad: for more on this and other announcements, we are joined by pr son jake in move by. -- in mumbai. how eventful was this meeting? >> this was a landmark agm speech. have alwaysustries wanted to transform reliance industries into a technology company rather than a commodity company. he never mentioned anything about oil and gas through two thirds of the speech. he was talking about technology.
22 they have already billion.0 google isnounced that building an operating system that could power a 4g, 5g smartphone in india. he praised google's investment of $4.5 billion. this is the landmark for reliance industries. are more deals in the making? >> of course. said he is going to induct strategic and financial partners for his retail venture. financial said the -- however he would be
open to look at strategy for his digital service unit with the gl platform at the same time, would forooking at investors reliance retail limited. all right. p.r. sanjai in mumbai. coronavirus cases on the rise again in the asia-pacific. the origin cannot be traced. we have a look at that and more. details coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪.
haslinda: global coronavirus cases have risen beyond 13.5 million with the u.s. still at the epicenter. the aipac region is staying a resurgence in infections with unknown origins. rachel chang in hong kong. what is the important data point to look at in the resurgences happening across the region? rachel: that's right, resurgences across asia. casesis a proportion of of unknown origin. cases thathe officials cannot link to any confirmed infections or existing
outbreaks, which means they have no idea how these people got infected. share of these types of cases go past 50% or higher, that's when officials will start to resort to very extreme actions, returning to lockdown, simply because they have no idea where the cases are coming from. we are seeing that emerge as a policy tool. rishaad: how does this determine government responses? for instance, do they lock down? how do they lock down? what is lockdown? rachel: what we are seeing in asia is this percentage remains low in south korea, where cases of unknown origin are below 10%. people can live their lives normally. every day, there are 30, 40, 50
cases reported, but as long as the share is low, south korea is not doing anything beyond shutting down one school or one workplace. they are not worried about the chain of transmission across society. in a city like hong kong where we see the share go up beyond 50%, the daily cases are not much. hong kong only had 22 cases yesterday. but they are under the strictest measures they have ever had. bars are closed, beaches are closed, dining in is barred after 6:00 p.m. because they don't know where the cases are coming from. if you are a city seeing a surge of infection and you want to know if you are headed toward lockdown, this is the number you should be looking at. rishaad: rachel, thank you. bloomberg's rachel chang joining us with the latest on the coronavirus and how to trace things.
in the latest issue of bloomberg businessweek, could this be the one? that a vaccine candidate might be through human trials in september. astrazeneca already lining up agreements to produce 2 billion doses. you can have more on that story. have a look at bloomberg businessweek for that. haslinda: let's do a quick check of the business flash headlines. top oil driller california resources has filed for bankruptcy after the collapse in food prices made its debt load unmentionable -- unmanageable. the producer has been breaking down since it spun off from occidental in 2013. it has been hurt by low cash levels and stricter regulations despite its $321 million investment from coney capital. reports from china say a wuhan based driller is under investigation for using fake
gold bars to secure loans. local media has been raising questions about whether king gold jewelry has let 83 pounds of gold that was mainly copper alloy secure funding. the issue came up when the gold was assessed after them interest payment was missed. king gold says it's bank accounts have been frozen. american airlines is telling 25,000 staff they could lose their jobs when government aid expires at the end of september. that is just under a third of the total workforce. the carrier blames the coronavirus. the final number of redundancies will depend on how many workers take a newly offered plan with early out and leave options. a top developer is said to be close to agreeing to a stake in rival tahoe, according to the 21st century business harold. the companies began talks in early may. tahoe has a property portfolio
worth about $3.5 billion. china's -- rishaad: we are just having a look at what we have coming up later on. citigroup, head of global markets asia traders -- asia trading strategy joining us at the top of the hour. having a look at global trading strategies as well. later on, the morgan stanley ceo james gorman. we talk about bank earnings. that's against a wave of other banks reporting on wall street. that's coming up right here in hong kong. we saw the chinese economy return to growth in the second quarter. that marks an important milestone in the struggle to recover from the pandemic. gdp expanding a better than expected 3.2%. retail sales did not meet expectations. 1.1%kong at the moment
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