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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 22, 2020 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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the word from u.s. congress is that the next tranche of stimulus may not come until august. republicans back stimulus checks, but a payroll tax cut is in question. metals shine. silver jumps to the highest in almost seven years. gold rises towards a record amid uncertainty over the recovery. and elon musk's payday -- the tesla boss nails a $2.1 billion award as the carmaker's market value reaches a milestone. the company reports earnings today. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from new york and london. moments ago, the u.s. saying this is over intellectual property issues, the closing of the chinese consulate in houston. the state department has confirmed that the consulate in houston will close. tom: we can address this with sir howard davies in a moment,
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francine, but this is really extraordinary and really, really important. we have consulates in china. clearly the chinese have said they are going to act rapidly on this. the backstory of this is intellectual property, which is nothing more than the stealing of trade secrets. ellen not a shema in the washington post in recent days writing up the trial in houston phone that holds oil platform in the water. where there is literally a court case going on about the intellectual property value of the foam that holds up big pieces of steel in the water. just one example around this breaking story. francine: this also comes on the back of what we heard yesterday, right, tom? the u.s. and other countries accusing china of hacking and getting research information regarding covid-19. tom: no question about that. let me get a data check.
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futures -17. the story is safe haven, and you see it quickly in yield, where the 10-year yield has come in .58 a vengeance, .59, a handle. the two-year united kingdom coming into a negative yield. on a weekly chart, coldness at a record high fulsome on a daily chart, we are -- gold is at a record high. on a daily chart, we are getting to where we were years ago. francine: treasuries edging higher, the dollar racing a loss. there is a risk off mood. stocks,ook at european futures dropped, and then gold 1850 per ounce. to talk about the markets, to talk about the banks and geopolitics, we are delighted to be joined by sir howard davies.
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you rebranded today, howard, so congratulations on that. consulate story in houston, are we assuming that things between the u.s. and china? that china and the rest of the world will actually escalate on international property issues? difficultll, it is a one to answer because some cynics would say there is not much intellectual property in banking. the financial sector is not particularly affected by this issue, but i do know plenty of companies are concerned that their intellectual property has "stolen"ell, whether is the right word -- but has been used by chinese competitors. what i find slightly surprising is that this is something that has taken place in a consulate. most western countries, involveds are not
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in industrial espionage, but it looks like the americans have some reason to believe that is the case. i would say that these tit-for-tat closures of offices are things which are quite easy to do, and sometimes they are almost like a safety valve, if you like. you close something, they close one of yours, and everybody has made that point. it will be interesting to see if there is something more to it than that. if it is just the cyclical closure of consulates, that is probably a relatively minor question. francine: how does covid-19 change the trade war between the u.s. and china? does it make it lead like a gay -- does it make it less likely that we will see -- howard: it raises the stakes because when everything is going well, governments feel that they can perhaps make gestures or make political points in the
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trade area without too much damage. i think what the covid situation means is that you are playing with fire here because you are operating against a rather fragile economic background anyway. therefore, taking tough trade measures and imposing tariffs is going to be potentially more damaging than it would be if trade is otherwise buoyant. i think that is the way in which it affected. tom:'s are howard: my must turn to this historic moment for -- , i must turn to this historic moment. you worked at the london school of economics. is europe a better place this morning because of what occurred this weekend, to consolidate the united states of europe? howard: yes, it is. whether the united states of europe overstates the case -- it does -- but clearly kind of a
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rubicon has crossed here. they have agreed to collectively guarantee borrowing. that has been something which the germans and others have held out against for quite a long time. that i think is a very important moment and suggests that the arguments for solidarity, the work that doesn't translate well into english, that the argument for solidarity in europe have won the day, at least temporarily. so i do think it is an important moment. you can see by the fact that it took them four days to get there that they were overcoming serious issues. i am modestly optimistic about the way this has turned out, and i think we could see a stronger european recovery as a result. sit rightwhere you now, and all of your radar at the net west group and all of your discussion with the experts that are out there, how in
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recession is the economy right now? i'm having trouble of getting a gauge of the depth or persistency of a slowdown in aggregate demand. the markets are telling me that it is worse than the chit chat. what is it, sir howard? howard: what we have seen so far is that some parts of spending have recovered quite well. spending on staples, if you like, has been pretty flat through the period, and that is ok. spending on consumer durables has picked up really quite sharply. what we have not yet seen is a sharp pickup in what you might call social expenditure, beating out obviously all the parts etc. -- thatnemas, has not picked up. the question is, will people be confident enough to go back to their previous practices, social expenditure? that i think is going to take quite a bit of time.
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my favorite view of the shape of the recovery is that we have had the beginnings of a v-shaped recovery, and that that has been quite good as far as it goes, in fact slightly better than the u.k. and the bank of england thought. but the next part may flatten out a bit because then you reach some social, psychological issues about people's confidence , and that i think will take some time to recover. francine:'s or howard, thank you so much. sir howard davies of net west group stays with us. ackman,p later, bill pershing square founder and chief executive officer, 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: let's get the bloomberg first word news. another sign of worsening relations between the u.s. and china. beijing says the u.s. ordered the closing of the chinese consulate in houston. anna calls that unprecedented escalation. the u.s. says it is because of intellectual property issues. firefighters were sent to the thatlate after it learned papers were being burned in outside containers. president was notably more reserved than in the past, encouraging americans to wear masks and avoid risky behavior. the president promised the virus will be defeated, but he said it will probably get worse before it gets better. republicans putting together a coronavirus relief plan, supporting the idea of more
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stimulus checks to individuals, but they expressed doubts about president trump's call for a payroll tax cut. the differences between republican senators and the white house threatened to push action on the stimulus into next month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: thanks so much. francine lacqua and tom keene ,ith you, and howard davies formerly with the london school of economics and now with natwest. what i noticed this weekend's who was not in the photo, who was not in the conversation, and that is britain, the united kingdom. i know it is a generational change in europe, but part of that is a seismic shift of the united kingdom really not
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participating. how alone is the united kingdom right now? well, we are in a slightly curious phase because we are in the exits lounge from the e.u., but we have not quite left because all the rules still apply to us. i think it is fair to say that we have not yet situated ourselves on the world stage in a way that we will need to do for brexit. the government was working on that. the brexit talks have been difficult, not least because of covid-19. i do think that what lies behind isr question, if it is what the role of the u.k.? i think that is an open question. the dean etches in quote is that someone has lost e.u. but not the role. which i think is probably true, and i feel it is a bit unfortunate, and i think we do
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have a contribution to make globally and we need to resituate ourselves after brexit. but realistically, the government has other priorities at the present time. tom: i don't mean to denigrate anybody here, but it is a phrase out there. i know it is a popular tv show years ago. is there a risk, howard davies, of a little britain? howard: yes, little britain is not particularly well remembered because of various caricatures in it, so we don't talk about it anymore. but there is a danger of that. the government's rhetoric is we are going to be a global britain, we are going to be a global player. we are going to do so in an open trading way, and i hope that's true. but unfortunately that is difficult to achieve, and we heard today that there is not likely to be a u.s.-u.k. re-trade deal by the end of the year, which the government had hoped. so this reorientation outside the e.u. is going to take us
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quite some time. the practicalities of negotiating pretrade deals are quite complicated, and i think a bit underestimated by this government and the previous one for the last four years. sir howard, if you look at the u.k., how worried are you about bad loans? unemployment will rise, and with it, of course, some of the concerns in terms of provisions that will need to be booked by banks. howard: yes, that is certainly true. one important point i think, which we need to register in terms of the long-term impact of the covid-19 on the economy, is that there is likely to be a shift, if you like, in the relative price of capital and labor. it looks as if capital goods are going to be relatively cheaper, and labor will be for various reasons slightly more expensive because of the social distancing measures, the way in which people have to be supported at work.
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labor is likely to be more expensive, and of course companies have discovered that they can operate with people and people working from home, etc.. so over time, i think there will be a bit of a rebalance, which is -- of a rebalancing, which is likely to be a structuring of employment, which will require retreatment -- retreatment -- retraining and restructuring. that prospect is quite a difficult one. set against that background what has happened to businesses, as one bank has lent about 10 billion pounds in business interruption loans and bounceback loans, as they are called. and clearly some companies are going to have difficulty paying that back, which is why there is now a bit of a debate about whether there should be some sort of recapitalization vehicle, governments reluctant on that because the moral hazard issue, you don't want to hand out loans, and then say don't worry about it, you will not have to pay them back.
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i suspect there will need to be some recapitalization of loans in the next six to nine months in order to avoid a large number of redundancies. that is something that we are working on, we are working with individual customers, working collectively in the city to try to devise appropriate schemes, to try to mitigate the impact of the withdrawal of the government support mechanism, which has to happen fairly soon. francine: how difficult is it to model bad loans, specifically he e? howard: well, we all have to do so, whether it is difficult or not. we will be publishing our results at the end of next week. to be super cautious about what i say about it, there is of system, new accounting which is pulling forward provisioning earlier than it used to. i think what the market will have to register -- you have seen that with american banks
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and the last two or three weeks. there will be earlier recognition of bad loans than there were in the past, and the market is going to have to understand that? that is partly to do with accounting rules that have changed. tom: sir howard davies, thank you so much. he is chairman of natwest group. we have a conversation with the chairman and chief executive officer, an update on spain. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. spain's largest utility company says the lockdowns from the pandemic dampened performance of the first half of the year. join us to talk about covid-19 and the impact on covid-19 is nacioow see a -- is ig galan. how quickly do you expect prices and demand for energy to get back up after what we have lived through the last three or four months? guess there are a thele of charts avoiding revolution of the electricity demand.
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markets with a -2% return, in this moment, -- we have in the past two moments in terms of demanding and certain weeks, -18 as a whole. in februaryprices so 44,level in europe, 45 euros -- now it is 44, 40 4.2. at 42, andices were now they are at 42 -- 44, 45, 46. direction as same well. america hastin suffered more than a lot of regions in recent weeks. when does that region get back
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on its feet, and what does that mean for demand there? ignacio: countries like brazil and mexico, in the case of brazil, the government has a stake in our sectors, quick actions to protect the companies, so it has not really anerated or created -- balance loan for the companies to inject liquidity, to which companies might be affected by the lower demand. if you are not able to go to collect the money to your customers or the customer cannot pay. come quite a lot of money in our case 1.6 billion. secondary in the process to compensate the negative impact
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of covid. so in terms of the case of mexico, i feel they are already in that situation, which is -- to take measures to protect our customers. in the power generation, eight has not changed very much. practically the demand has not changed because they have continued working during this period. francine: i know you have been trying to buy -- is it a done deal now that you have sweetened the offer, and are you looking for more acquisitions going forward? ignacio: it is a company that -- we have been in this moment in investing, something like $400 million, something like that.
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some windfarms and some -- i think we have been already speaking in talks, and the last two months, and during this somebodyi have seen made a need for it. see m&a greenfield model, which gives us the opportunity of vast extension. we hope in the next few days and weeks -- tom: sir, thank you so much. ygnacio galan. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this is bloomberg surveillance. warning thatmp is the coronavirus pandemic will
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probably get worse before it gets better, and he urged americans to wear masks. the president resumed daily virus briefings months after he abandoned them. speaks on what he calls combating violent crime in american cities. he has pushed -- a new policy that appeals to his base. plan tound the country resist if the president sends troops into their city. china calls it an escalation. according to the state department it is to protect american intellectual property and american private information. the move is likely to lead to retaliation from beijing. firefighters went to the consulate after reports of documents being burned. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake on twitter
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powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom, francine? for more on china valley retaliation after the u.s. shut down a consulate, let's get more from our senior editor. what do we know about the reason? the approximate reason the united states said was to defend intellectual property, to protect it and america's private information. the state department said international agreements require the diplomats to respect the laws and not interfere with internal affairs. that implies china had done something to run afoul in one of those areas, but it did not give more specifics. tom: what is so fascinating is
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it is clearly in -- intellectual property and economic driven. the washington post had a good summary of a court case in houston on chinese espionage, i am saying that in a loose manner. which city is the economic consulate city for america in china? they wouldm mobile shut the u.s. consulate in hong they wouldhomable shut the u.s. consulate in hong kong? derek: there are a couple of options, there is a consulate in wuhan that i have heard chatter about. people are speculating about that. there are any number of options. the trick china will have is to calibrate this response such as it responds in a way that chinese people think it was a serious thing without escalating past the point they want to escalate to. francine: what would escalation look like?
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derek: that's a good question. the problem is you have a pandora's box of options, and all of them are bad. you see that reflected in the market data and the risk sentiment you are seeing. i hesitate to speculate on where you could go, but a lot of it is on the possible table. you could go for consulates, company restrictions, companies like boeing or apple. the options are really limitless. you have a very large menu. tom: thank you, a quick view. right now in london we are --ned broad international relations including three years ago a wonderful article on the closing of the russian consulate in san francisco. relationsternational
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101, when in doubt, close a consulate. it is almost normal procedure, isn't it? for the timingt -- there is a real sense in london of an increase in the increasere, an intense in temperature on the pressure being brought to the chinese government at a time where it is under attack from a whole host of countries that feel they have been badly done by china. it is the timing. the consulate has echoes of the cold war. in itself it would not normally make news, but coming at the time where secretary of state pompeo is in london praising the british push to remove huawei from the u.k. 5g network, change the extradition treaty, there is a real sense of motion and movement and that this administration is not going to let up in these last three or
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four months before the presidential election. it is the timing more than anything. tom: how do these things end? process of normal how everybody kisses and makes up? historically,look the u.k. has experienced this as well, the chinese can be very tough in retaliation in the near term. they have a way of allowing inter can -- allowing economic interaction. example, it a good is heavily in the chinese eye. there has been an international investigation of the origins of the coronavirus crisis and also limits put on australian barley exports. underneath the surface, australia has had one of its biggest years ever of selling
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minerals and mind iron ore to the chinese. chinese have to be careful in how they calculate tit for tat. they don't want to put more countries into america's camp. they want to keep europe and play so i think that chinese will be cautious about letting this escalate. robin, why is the u.s. going after china right now? is it for political reasons? we heard of ip theft in the past, has that increased or is it convenient for the u.s. to point the finger at china now? host ofhis is a whole facts. i will try to break them down because it is such a big question. that under xiubt china has heightened centralized restrictive human rights and human freedoms, not
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just the uighur muslims but more , more centralized chinese communist control. this has given life to the idea -- if that is the case, then any countries that are deep in their economic interaction with china have to think, are we supporting, by doing so, a communist party state that is not only more draconian on internal controls and breaking standards in human rights, but also one that might spread those values internationally? we have seen some u.n. organizations where the chinese have increased their influence in a whole host of areas, or chinese nationals heading up u.n. agencies. i think this administration which contains people that always thought china was a growing threat have never been in an administration where they can push it. change notmoment to just american policy toward china, but to wake up the world
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and change the western approach to china. -- those who have always been suspicious want to bring down the hammer on things like intellectual property, and things like that are a way to do it. this is about resetting the relationship between china and the west, and the idea of them having an integrated economic relationship. it is big. european countries and many -- do you think european countries and other parts of the world will get behind the u.s. on this? always doubted that european countries would get behind america on this for the simple reason that for most europeans, russia is the more proximate security threat and china is a distant security threat. although the chinese government has been annoying in creating this 19 plus one arrangement
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where a group of eu states get to talk about infrastructure projects on the belt and road , there has been intellectual property theft, acquisitions of sensitive technology or companies. they have been an irritant but it has not been strategic. the changing elements of human rights, that is what brings europeans into the mix. they believe they have been defenders of the u.n. and human rights in the way the trump administration has not been. as far as human rights the europeans have to answer. there is going to be a tightening up of european solutions. with robinthis niblett of chatham house. talk about things that are more established like a new europe. dow futures up 118, nasdaq futures all down.
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118, nasdaqn futures in may of 27. we will exploit why the market is going down.
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♪ there are every morning just under one half million americans who go to work for a british company, and around the same brits going to work for american companies and i think that's kind of the win-win trade deal that we are committed to and determined to achieve between our countries. francine: that was the u.k.
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foreign secretary dominic raab speaking in a news conference with mike pompeo. governmenthas the been? -- they have been accused of turning a blind eye to russian meddling in brexit, they are struggling to come up with a strategy for covid-19, what does the prime minister do from here? robin: the prime minister hopes that britain is not one of the countries that has a return spike in covid in any significant way beyond the localized ones we have already had over the coming months. it is essential for boris johnson that the british economy starts to recover, and they have tried to keep an ion it. the u.k. will have one of the largest deficits that we have seen in any country this year. the u.s. having more at maybe
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15% or 17 deficit to gdp. the highest we had was 10% during the financial crisis. he desperately needs the company to get back going. i don't think the russia inquiry is lending too many blows, because there was not much data to point to. it has been crimes of omission rather than commission so far. pompeo is probably well-timed, because at least it allows them to show that special relationship and connection with the u.s.. a majority of the british public are a little suspicious of getting too close to the trump administration. on china right now and around the city of hong kong it is a useful moment and useful distraction to have after a pretty torrid set of weeks in terms of the government's covid-19 response. francine: we have not talked about brexit much, are we going to get a brexit deal or is the
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u.k. going to leave this year without a deal? robin: if i put money on the table i think a skinny deal will be done by the end of the year. u.k.y i say, because the by going for the free trade agreement option was not going for a big deal and is trying to separate out and pushoff other contentious issues around domestic security and energy for the future. they are really trying to concentrate all of their effort on tariff free, quota free trade , and the terms of access to some of their services, especially financial services. given that the u.k. has conceded that there will have to be tough border controls, we are talking about 7 billion pounds worth of extra costs to complete 250 million new customs forms. that happens in january whether we have a deal or not.
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my sense is the two sides are not going towards a show -- if they fail on this given that the horizons are so low i think they will come to some kind of agreement. has a habit of doing a lot of tough talk early in order to be able to concede later. that's how he did it with the withdrawal agreement and i expect the eu will give him room to compromise. tom: robin, was this in watershed this weekend -- was this a sea change visual, an emotional the united kingdom to say we are not part of this? robin: we are not part of what? tom: the eu. robin: absolutely. it is funny that i did not know what you were talking about, because sitting here in london
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it has been a parallel story. in a way, both sides are beyond each other. in fact i think one of the most interesting things to think about is, could you have got this deal if the u.k. was still a member of the eu? this is the classic example. actually the u.k. always had to leave because the u.k. would have been blocking these new resources and borrowing on the market. this is not the eurozone deal, this is an eu wide deal and the u.k. would have to concede ideas about taxation, borrowing on the market. this confirms for many people why the u.k. could not be a member of the eu. many of the eu governments are happy to not have the u.k. government around. -13, dow futures at -108. we are watching for news out of
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china and beijing and their actions after the u.s. closes a chinese consulate. tomorrow, driving the economic dialogue somehow stimulus will,. in conversation with jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg, good morning.
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♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance, good morning. at 1856ata front, gold an ounce. here is edward morris from citigroup on gold and silver. convenient wayt to do it is through an etf. you don't need to own the bullion and deal with storage and moving it. olein is great, but how do you store it or hide it under a mattress -- bullion is great, but how do you store it? the etf provides you with convenience of not having to
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deal with the physical material. >> a few of the elements that seem to be boosting bullion also seem to be helping silver. when it comes to silver, how much of the industrial demand rebound optimism is playing into it? edward: it plays into it. there is an element of all of the other things that go into the gold market, the depreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the continued world of high-risk, and low interest rates. in addition, you have the industrial uses of silver. boost should really change the relationship between silver and gold. in terms of looking at the next year or two, we think you have to have a combination of factors. the underlying factors that are boosting gold and silver and the
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industrial factors that should change the ratio between silver and gold. >> i have to ask, right now, given the unprecedented year, do we look at gold as a commodity or currency? what do you advise investors to shift their perspective into? edward: we have never thought of thinking of gold is a commodity, it is not like other commodities. it is not consumable and you never lose the store of gold in the world. , ans more like a currency asset that fluctuates with lots of other things. this is the kind of moment where gold really works in terms of the yield you can get from it based on all other things that are happening in the global economy. you don't have to worry about deterioration, consumption, it is something unlike other commodities that gives you a sense of where the world is ofng rather than a snapshot
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where the world is currently. >> is the momentum and bullishness we are seeing for the outlook on gold unprecedented or is it comparable to any other period of financial history? comparable to a couple of unique things happening. if you look at the price of gold and a whole bunch of curis eads -- currencies other than the u.s. dollar -- the nature of the world we are living in, we are going through a critical environment that can be compared to something worse than the great financial crisis when gold etf's came into a big way for investors. it is on the dangerous precipice of being something like the great depression from 28 to 32. there is something unique about it. although we have seen the play
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2009, we saw08 and the play in gold in 2016. this is, in terms of risk in the global system, something that nobody living today as an adult has ever seen before. >> you are pretty bullish on precious metals. change yourake you stance, if at all? what elements would you take into account? would be ifbiggest there was inflation rising in the world economy somewhere. you can think about inflation in terms of food and fuel. in the u.s. we have a very limited in terms of recent history amount of acreage under cultivation. we have very adverse weather conditions. foodu look at the main staples like soybeans, wheat,
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and corn they look like they could be inflationary. with the dollar depreciation across countries. similarly with energy. lead food and fuel that the pace, and reflation could be a damper or a headwind. tom: edward morse of citigroup. coming up, this is important. santos will show up with courage to stay in the markets. have you been able to do that? .his is bloomberg ♪
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lesser yield, there is no disinflation adjustment yield. up 25 percent since march pandemic lows. it is a hope, a promise. europe agrees to a united stimulus and in washington trillions more in aid will be needed, and it is needed now. there are 103 days until the election. the president adapts and adjusts. from weakrs migrate pathetic jerks and fools to his partners. good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance from our world headquarters in new york and london. francine lacqua is here as well. the politics going on of mr. pompeo and the united kingdom on prime minister johnson china, and you have the news to send upon them. francine: it is also descending on the markets.


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