tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 22, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> fiscal stimulus gives us that shot in the arm. it buys us time to get there, but we thick markets are going to be increasingly focused on identifying a solution in the months to come. >> there's going to be a lot more unemployment coming, a shift from what was temporary unemployment into permanent. >> confidence is the elusive issue here. for those that are in work, there will be that fear of the specter of unemployment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.
tom: good morning, everyone. an exceptionally busy day here at "bloomberg surveillance." lots to talk about on the news front. stimulus in washington or non-stimulus, the breaking news on china, and markets as well. the dollar moments ago breaks down to new week this of dxy -- new weakness of dxy. an ever weaker dollar index. that will be one of our themes across the hour. our kevin cirilli reports a deeply divided -- reports on deeply divided republicans, and there are fire trucks in houston. jonathan: they are united on one thing in washington, and it is china. the consulate in houston shutting down after the u.s. demand. we have looking up 70 times to that headline -- woken up so many times to that headline, so
-- we have woken up so many times to that headline, u.s.-china tensions. gold, $1863 note an ounce. on a weekly basis, gold has had a record high. go to the dynamics you have seen in high-yield and ig. lisa: if you take a look at high-yield bond spreads today, you can see to have shrunk dramatically. i do think there is an interesting dynamic here, where you've got the fed put on one , the wisheconomic put to keep the economy going on the u.s. and china side will offset some of these tensions from bleeding over too much. a big question, though, going forward. tom: oil elevated as well. but it does come back to the equity market. so much of that is what to do , for the people that have
been on board this huge move since march, and the people in institutional and retail that are behind. someone that has been dealing for this -- dealing with this for years is scott wren, now with the wells fargo investment institute. he has decades of experience, saying you've got to have courage to be in this market. he joins us right now. where is the courage right now? scott: i think you have to have the courage to believe that we are going to see some medical advancements, we are going to see some better employment. we are going to see confidence leading to consumer spending, slowly coming back over time. not that you can expect s&p earnings to be back to those 2019 levels next year, but at least it is somewhere on the horizon, and i think markets are certainly acting as though we are going to continue to get good news here. jonathan: where does the weaker dollar fit into your thinking
this morning? scott: if you look at the dxy, it is really not that much changed from where it was a couple of years ago. but certainly the stimulus that the euro zone is putting together, the relative growth which, in my mind, if you have inflation virtually at zero, it is all about gross. europe -- all about growth. european growth didn't look good. global growth starting to look better than it would relative to the u.s. i think that is the main reason we have seen the dxy drop a little bit. jonathan: this is a really whether themension, u.s. versus rest of the world growth story is getting set for allocation to the rest of the world. is that the case for you? scott: we have been debating this for some time. we have been underweight both em and markets -- and developed markets.
we certainly think growth might be a little bit better than what we thought, so we may do something to adjust, but basically right now, we are focused on u.s. large-cap growth. that is where we want to be. technology is the sector we like the best. i think right now that has worked out for us, and we continue to let that position at least at the moment. lisa: how much does your big tech that rely on a fed put on going? scott: for better or worse, i think that does exist. what i fear is in the future, every little stumble in the economy where normally accesses would get washed out are no longer allowed to happen, and the fed drops interest rates to zero every time. but certainly the market is pretty company that the fed put is there. i think that is irrational argument. we are in a low interest-rate environment that will last for
an extended period of time. lisa: you don't think that perhaps the fed put is overpriced? scheer was-- pete here yesterday, and he sees the balance flat over the past month or so. scott: you could certainly make that argument, but for us, that is an important factor. i am a big believer in not fighting the fed. if we do see asa double -- if we do see a stumble here in the economy, and the trajectory looks like it will not be in the right direction, the fed is going to do more. they certainly have a munition, and they are not going to hesitate. i think the market is convinced that is the case. tom: you are acclaimed for coming across this nation, talking to financial advisors and institutions and retail who aren't participating. how do you catch up now? scott: i tell you, there's a lot of people who haven't
participated in retail investors. they are sitting on a lot of cash. they are very nervous. they can have all the plans, and we can say you need to step in here all day long, but the way the markets move lately in these thousand point days that we haven't had in a while, you get a big drop quickly, people are afraid. tom: oh, come on, scott. scott: that is one reason we are appear. you look at the level of pessimism out there. it is high. tom: you and i go back to pioneer a million years ago. there used to be a pet answer. baloney. everybody is behind in their actuarial assumption of the retirement plan. people are scared stiff. what is the mechanism you use to participate in a market that is six big tech stocks? scott: one good thing is we have seen the s&p equaled late -- the s&p equal weight to better, but
that is the thing. you have to talk about what is going to happen. that is why we have year end 21 targets out there because we want our clients -- year-end 2021 targets out there because we want our clients to look forward. we see the economy coming back, growing 3% next year. that is the kind of situation where you have to hammer home the message, what sectors are going to benefit. this is why we think we are going to see the fed continue to be easy on rates. we are going to see some global growth. you have to try to work through the fundamentals because the stocks have run. you look relative to this year's earnings, and stocks are certainly not cheap. they are not cheap relative to next year earnings, but they are not extremely overvalued. they are probably fair value right now. if you want to put money in the market, maybe you put 1/3 of euro amount in now at fair value, but you have to be ready to pull the trigger and step in
on bad days. lisa: howdy rising tensions between the u.s. and china fit into that message? scott: it is kind of odd. typically the market would be quite nervous about that. barely we are not seeing that right now but trade tensions, if we filter into this trade tensions story, the market is focused on the virus and employment right now, but certainly as we get down the road, trade tensions are going to have an effect. right now i am a little surprised we are not seeing more volatility related to china, but if these do accelerate, i don't think the administration is going to push it too hard, we are going to see some volatility. that is probably depending on what happens with election get that is a 2021 story. jonathan: did you ever think of an interview taking the tone you are taking with the s&p your to
date? scott: the nasdaq has obviously been on an incredible tear here. 23 theu look since march out there, it makes sense that the market is up, but i have to a we are right where we think you're going to be at year-end, so this has been a bigger rally quicker than we ever expected. jonathan: print to catch up with you. scott wren -- great to catch up with you. scott wren of wells fargo investment institute. tom: tom: there's a pandemic involved, but what we heard from liz ann sonders the other day, these are people with decades of experience. they've got their ear to the rail, and they hear it out there. asple are petrified, even seven or eight stocks go up. wren says, a huge number of people have missed
this surge. jonathan: in the nasdaq, about three stocks a cup that overall index. to get to the broader market, risk rotation giving this market a lift against the u.s. dollar. it is not just the euro move. strength some euro yesterday with that deal, but the aussie dollar speaks to the risk on rotation, the proxy for growth, the proxy for risk. the aussie dollar outperforms. tom: can you get those tots it's this year? jonathan: i would love to watch a football much next season. morning. the pile this that speaks to the nervousness around that. can you see the pound really stretching out the head of a brexit debate that has still not been resolved? i can't. can you? tom: sir ian was on earlier, and
he made clear the eu summit really changed to brexit debate. jonathan: coming up on this program, we won't talk brexit, i promise. peters of pgim. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. has ordered the chinese consulate in houston to be closed, according to the state department, to protect american intellectual property and private information. beijing has warned it will retaliate. last night, houston firefighters went to the consulate after reports that documents were being burned in outside containers. president trump has rebooted the coronavirus briefings with a shift in tone and a warning. he was notably more was herbed than in the past. he encouraged americans to wear a mask and avoid risky behavior. he said that the virus will be
defeated, but will probably get worse before it gets better. republicans putting together a coronavirus release plan broadly support the idea of more stimulus checks to individuals, but they are expressing doubts about president trump's call for a payroll tax cut. the differences between republican senators and the white house threatened to push any action on the stimulus into next month. the democratic party platform is sticking close to joe biden's line on major policies, according to a draft of the document. the party will call for universal health care and remaking the justice system, but the platform strays away from goals pushed by progressive democrats such as medicare for all. it has been called elon musk's moonshot. the tesla ceo has unlocked the second chunk. the average trailing market value rose $150 billion yesterday. that means musk can exercise stock options that would give him a $2.1 billion profit if he sold. one catch, musk can sell shares for five years -- musk can't
a lowered environment will continue to perform and continue to see buyers on dip. ofathan: mona mahajan there allianz. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your price action shaping up as follows here in new york, around one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. equity futures down four, negative a little more than 0.1%. on the bond market, yields in a single basis point to 0.59%. $1.1578.ar, we advanced towards $1.16. aussie dollar very much top of the pile in g10. senator review says -- senator rubio, on china, says that the houston consulate is "a major spy center."
for our audience just tuning in, china has been ordered by the united states to close down that consulate in houston, texas. tom: what is interesting in this, i go to the "washington post" article from a couple of days ago, is it is not just one case or one idea of espionage. it is a whole series of documented proceedings, some that get to court, some that do not, that have led to the tone you hear from the senator from florida. jonathan: remember, five consulates in the united states for the chinese, five consulates for the u.s. and china. those kind of incremented moves won't disrupt financial markets too much, but incrementally, every day, every week, every month, we take another step apart between the chinese and the united states. one day you wake up to some thing that is repairable -- that is irreparable, and i think that
is the thing at the moment. tom: this is something that ambassador haas really emphasizes as well. --ple come up he we hot t-ball, peewee hockey, they give a lot of ribbons. so what? then there are awards that matter, the blue star fixed income manager of the year. it is incredibly difficult to take that trophy. mr. peters has taken it a few years ago, greg peters of pgim, and does a thing or two about the fixed income market. how does our audience on radio y fixed income now with these very low yields? it truly seems priced to perfection. tom. thanks, people have been saying that for quite some time now, haven't
they? it has continued to work out. the way that we are looking at it at pgim, we see a lot of value on fixed income. so you are in a backdrop where growth will remain rather muted. obviously it is going to come off the bottom here post mobile lockdown. -- post global lockdown. you have inflation that is a really difficult to find. then you have credit spreads that are actually quite wide relative to their own histories. i evaluate the global fixed income market and i am pretty excited about the opportunity over the next six months to several years. jonathan: you've got to be the first guest in the last month that has come on and talked about fixed income and credit and said i am excited at this value. help us find that value right now, greg. greg: i would say it is important to remember that it is about the destination.
corporations have actually suffered here in the first quarter. you are seeing that through the cash loan earnings leverage is a consequence that has moved up. we see a term in to issuance, but they are keeping caps on balance sheets. they've actually made a more stable balance sheet and more liquid. at the same time, what you are seeing now is corporate management teams that are looking to delever, pulling back dividends, cutting back on share buybacks. these are all attributes that favor fixed income investors. i think it is really important. lisa: is that actually deleveraging, or is that survival? if you cut back on dividends and share buybacks because you need the money to keep your lights on because you are getting no revenue, that is very different than saying you are actually going to cut debt. greg: it all helps the bondholder. the irony is that when things
are going really well, when the economy is booming and companies are spending hand over fist areugh share buybacks, they actually trashing their balance sheet and deleverage is increasing -- and the leverage is increasing. that is not good for fixed income credit investors. at the same time, spreads are wide. you are getting paid for that risk and paid to take the chance that companies will continue to de-lever. that is my firm belief here. jonathan: what i hear from you is that using the c-suite will be doing their job for the bond market and not the equity market in the coming year are so. help us get specific here. ratings, sector. i know you can't give us specific names, but give us an idea of where you go. greg: for me, the real opportunity is in the space i called the crossover credit, the bbb's, investment grade
corporate, and bb's in high-yield. percentilen the 85th a's goingo single back since 1994. it is basically the same thing for bb's relative to bbb's. so this crossover corridor, fallen angels, that is where my focus is. that is where you will be most rewarded over the next several years or so. jonathan: that is where the sweet spot has been over the past several weeks or so. great to catch up with you. tom keene, let's talk about china. a headline from reuters a couple of hours ago, indicating that china is considering closure of a u.s. consulate in wuhan, one of the five consulates the u.s. has in china. this is the tit for tat i think
we can expect. tom: we have kept quiet on this headline. just a little blast on twitter is not good enough, but now we have liquid from reuters and bloomberg news as well. "china could respond to the american order by closing u.s. consulate in wuhan, where the virus originated, or another city," the bloomberg source said. we are getting more formal and good in the reporting on the chaos out of china. jonathan: hard to keep up. south china sea diplomacy spilling into consulates in the united states. ktok?s next, ti that is becoming a big focus as well, how would people in america are on that chinese owned app. i know there will be some kind of story with you and your family. tom: i would love to see it go. not only do i have the offspring on astok, but relatives
jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. the cash open around the corner. the price action so far, lower on equity futures off the back of the headlines that china has been ordered to close a consulate in houston. united states making the order. we bounce off the lows. than .1% one more the s&p. in the bond market, your 10-year year .529% -- your 10 yield .59%. the dollar breaking down as the session grows older. 1.1584,lar at approaching 1.16, the aussie .66%. is on top, up
that move speaks to the risk on rotation in the currency market you are seeing into the commodity currencies come into the growth proxies, that is what is playing out of the market. tom: no question. this is a eurocentric move. the dollar euro stronger than yen. a headline from the secretary of state traveling in europe. the chinese communist party is a threat to freedom everywhere -- that is the kind of message we have heard from the secretary of state from the last two or three days of his travels. we travel to hong kong and two guard in road, beautiful and , an ancient church of the outlook and faith -- and ancient church of the anglican faith. right next to it the consulate. -- enda curran is
with us. what was the surprise in hong kong and beijing to the news in houston? enda: i think it underscores the relations between china and the u.s.. the language out of beijing said it was outrageous, unjustified, erroneous. it promised to respond. it's that infiltration and interference is never in the genes of chinese foreign policy. the language coming back from beijing hence they were caught off guard and they say they will respond in kind. jonathan: this market does not know what to do with any of this. we had at the other week with the south china sea. it feels like incremental moves nobody knows what to do with. how do you frame it? enda: is hong kong, it is huawei , it is chinese reporters based
in the u.s., it is trade, it is social media, the list continues. as i said at the start, it does not feel like any floor in the relationship. we continue to hit new lows. it is rare for any country to shut down the consulate of a foreign power in this way it therscores the dynamic countries is quite volatile and will remain into the election. there is a view that perhaps the election in the u.s. could be some kind of circuit breaker regardless of who wins. reset, butlete there's a view i share that this relationship will continue to deteriorate until we get clarity on the election. jonathan: i wonder how misplaced that view is. curran, chief asia
correspondent. there is always a level of mistrust between two countries. what i think is interesting about this moment is how publicly this is playing out in a weekly basis. there are many involved in this, secretary mike pompeo just one of them. and thenthing happens, it is a huge mystery, at least of the uncertainty we see right now. uncertainty is something the market does not like. stocks remarkably stable. this is a wonderful person to talk to about the ballet in washington we see on the future of this economic slowdown and the burden on state and locality. his publicas policy for morgan stanley and does it through a wonderful prism of municipal credit. it helps to be a credit analyst
before you spout about public policy. let's start with the desperation. how desperate are states and locals -- how bad to they need it? -- how bad do they need it? michael: they needed pretty badly not as bad as they would if the fed had not come through with the municipal credit facility. view, state deficits through the end of 2021 range billion to $375 billion. has 350 billion -- the fed has 350 ilion dollars for states austerity measures punt -- the austerity in itself is important because if you do have to undertake austerity, you probably see credit downgrades,
you see a drag on the broader economy through state and local government layoffs. it is much better for investors two, what congress is -- a few weeks from see this largely mitigated, taking the state of credit back to where it was in january and february. billion250 to $500 allocation to states and municipalities would offset the damage of the pandemic to state finances? is that what you are saying? michael: i think that is more or less correct. totally offset is too strong of a word, but you largely fill in that gap. of course, if we are wrong in our own estimate about how the
rest of the pandemic plays out, if the vaccines do not get us herd immunity by the first half of next year, then you would expect a continuation of revenue shortfalls and further crashing budgets. if we are comfortable the assumption -- you will be able to achieve that by the first half of next year, this is a substantial mitigated to the stress that is opened up for state and local finances. michael: let's get to the substance of the current debate in washington, d.c. there seems to be a general agreement on sending new stimulus checks to americans, on extending enhanced unemployment benefits. where's the sticking point you expect to emerge in the coming weeks? there are a few different sticking points. one is on the absolute side. republican team to keep the
headline number low to appease the deficit hawks. the marker they have lay down his we do not want to see more than $1 trillion. practically speaking there is a good chance the number will have to come up to accommodate what everyone wants. it comes down to what is bipartisan, what is the pandemic impact directly, and what are the things that can be done without adjusting the budget baseline. it is still a filter that allows for things like stimulus checks and extension of supplemental unemployment benefits, and therefore $1 trillion is more like the floor of what will happen. that seems like a redline, but it will have to move a little bit. the size of the extra unemployment checks seems like a redline but will probably have to move a little bit. ultimately there is enough agreement around those issues in principle that we are confident you will see agreement over the
next does go to three weeks. jonathan: this is the important aspect. the concepts are not being debated, it is the size. if they were negotiating the concepts, i think it will be difficult to get a deal. we saw this in europe. a similar story. the netherlands were not debating the concept, they were debating the size. when you see that playing out, i think you can be confident we can come to a deal. we meet somewhere in the middle. if it was about concept, i would be much more nervous. tom: i would agree with that. there is a huge difference between europe and america. this goes to the labor component of our municipal finance. at thet presume layoffs federal, and at the state and at the city level? there is probably going to be some degree of that, at least at the state and local level it tends to lag the real economy. i think if we get the
appropriation we think you will get, the layoffs become a much lighter touch. i think you cannot dismiss the idea there were not be any layoffs whatsoever. this is about mitigating that affect and the drag on the broader economic recovery over time. that is heavily influencing the debate in washington, d.c. plenty of republicans were reticent to extend any eight to state and local government. mitch mcconnell talking about bankruptcy as a solution. what seems to have crept in is there plenty of republican states that have big-budget cap, not justg-budget gaps, because of covid bit because of oil prices going down. there is understanding the negative impacts on the economy keeps going if you do not fill in these budget gaps. jonathan: great to catch up with you. morgan stanley head of public
policy research. a couple of months ago when the states needed aid, it was the blue states. now does all states that are suffering. tom: no question about that. that has been the profound shift. i looked carefully at the stats on death. it is amazing the success of new york, front and center blue state weeks ago. boy, have they brought down their statistics. they are dramatically better. jonathan: they made very big mistakes early on they had to correct. i think we are hoping we can see the same course taken across the sun belt. coming up, francisco blanch of bank of america research. all.morning to alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz a mime jonathan ferro. your equity market recovers off the lows. market, the dollar breaking down. the euro breaking out.
euro-dollar up 6%. at the top of the pile, the aussie dollar. the risk on rotation reflected in foreign-exchange. this is "bloomberg surveillance." another sign of the worsening relations between the u.s. and china. the u.s. has ordered the chinese consulate in houston to be closed. according to the state department, it is to protect americans intellectual property and private information. china calls the move and unprecedented escalation and is threatening to retaliate. last night, police and firefighters went to the consulate after reports documents were being burned in outside containers. president trump has warned the coronavirus pandemic will get worse before it gets better and he urged americans to wear masks. dailyesident resumed the virus briefings. president trump speaks today on
what he calls combating violent crimes in american cities. errol eight in cities hit by spikes in crime and is a policy that appeals to his base. cities up around the country worn they will resist if he sends agents as he has the portland, oregon. president trump repeatedly -- reportedly asked the british to get the british government to get the british open plate at his golf course. johnson's aid warned the move would be unethical. the time says the ambassador raise the issue anyway but failed. -- that was the biggest decline across the world's priciest cities. just 41 properties sold for $10 million or more. that is down from 137 a year earlier.
now with the economy coming back , those earnings for those other companies are doing a bit better. i do not think it is an either or, i think it is a both and. doll of nuveen ahead of big earnings after the closing bell in new york for big tech, including microsoft and tesla. good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene euro-dollar breaking close to 1.16. up next, i will be stepping away to catch up with matt hornbach of morgan stanley who is looking for a much weaker dollar. dollar, it isak simple. there is a persistent deterioration led by euro. euro yen indicates stronger euro versus yen with a euro dominance. just for a second we had a 1.16 on euro-dollar. on the gyrations in
the commodity space, it is a deceptive space. the bloomberg commodity index is really good math and it is 18% goal. moon, thato the index has done better. what about the rest of the space? francisco blanch is head of global commodities and derivatives and owns gold up to his eyeballs. he is like goldfinger in the james bond movie. get gold out of the way. is it dominating all of the commodity analysis? are the indexes no good just because of gold? francisco: no. thank you for having me on. we are having all precious metals. we have had a pretty good run on industrial metals, and the one commodity that has not moved all that much has been oil. around the $4045 level for a few weeks.
to $45 level 40 for a few weeks. there is a question of what china will do and from a resources perspective. there is an inflation story going on, bold is the biggest beneficiary because a lot of macro factors that have been compiled. i do not think it is the only story. i also think industrial metals are picking up and oil is waiting on the sidelines until we get a bigger uptick in economic. lisa: hold on a second. there is a sweet between industrial metals and precious metals which is silver. how much do you see that escalating at that point? can you give us calls on silver? francisco: we maintain a $25 target on silver.
silver is goodgs for is the solar panels. what we are seeing is large istion of all this money going into what some people label the energy transition. energy transition means will be using a lot more solar. affecting the price of copper. , the about the energy metals and future energy. copper, lithium, cobalt, silver. some people put it is a poor man's gold. it is something easier to buy. i do not buy that argument. i think there is still the accelerating trend on similar your -- on silver. i think both platinum and palladium has a long way to go. say tom has been
outfitting his entire apartment in solar panels and contribute into the rise in silver. there's a question of whether the industrial metals continue to rise in tandem with weakening oil, whether you could have demand for building but not a commensurate demand for crude. do you see that happens? francisco: it is happening to some extent. a lot of the infrastructure -- chinacoming through are going to boost that kind of standing, but covid is primarily a mobility crisis. the more we move, the more covid spreads. that is a fact that hopefully has been shown in different ways now. my sense is until we have a vaccine or cure, we will have to keep limiting our mobility. that is not great for oil. we still think the end will be 98 million barrels a day on
average, but it should have been 103. we will be 5 million barrels or 6 million barrels a day from the level of demand we should have seen next year, all things being equal. tom: what is the instability tem, to commodity em? how close are we to wear your world full so over into the fiscal world of these em nations? francisco: if you look at russia , there budget breakeven is the mid-40's for oil. with crude oil having rallied -- otherhe $43 range emerging markets, not so much. countries like saudi arabia have a much higher breakeven. they will struggle more. all the countries heavily reliant on things like iron ore are in better shape because you
know iron ore has been one of the stellar commodities in the past year. that is benefiting brazil as well. for the most part it is oil nation, and is those oil nations -- saudi arabia comes up of the front, and also many others in africa and venezuela. tom: too short a visit. francisco blanch from bank of america on commodities. lisa, an extraordinary and nuanced take as we go into the morning. 35 minutes away from the opening trading. the equity market, i cannot tell much, but it is extraordinary how rapidly we moved to a 1.16 euro. lisa: the nuance is a great way of putting it. the idea of dollar weakness steepening as the euro gains more traction.
interesting to see you are also seeing yields, in. 10 year yield 0.584%. that is four basis points from the all-time low and comes as the u.s. deficit widens. with the idea of people selling the dollar and the u.s. selling more debt, at what point did yield start to rise? tom: it is mostly about aggregate demand. the tensions with china are tangible. so much is the mystery of the use of stimulus in europe in getting to a new stimulus in the united states. the calendars absolutely critical this july 22. curve flattening in the last hour or so. i will not going to the details right now. i will let all of our different platforms do that in the next hour. clearly with the lower yields, some of the flattening coming in which can show economic slow down. much more to talk about this morning.
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes in the equity bell -- until the opening bell with equity futures recovery. anublican struggle reach agreement on the details of a stimulus plan. mitch mcconnell weighing in. >> i will reduce a -- i will introduce a bill that as a starting place and enjoys fairly significant support among republican senators, probably not everyone. jonathan: president donald trump demanding a payroll tax holiday, meeting resistance within his own party. south dakota john thune remaining skeptical, saying if it is a choice between checks in a payroll tax cut, i think it is pretty clear checks have a more direct benefit to the economy. for more, let's bring in kevin cirilli. first of all it is negotiations within the party and then the other party. ho