tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg August 19, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
♪ manus: good morning. annmarie hordern alongside me in london. it is daybreak europe. these are today's top stories. u.s. futures had higher after the s&p 500 and nasdaq closing records. nancy pelosi indicates the democrats could cut their stimulus proposal for a deal with the republicans. president trump says he called
off last weekend's trade talks with beijing as the u.s. state department asks colleges and universities to divest from chinese stocks. tinsley merkel rules out loosening of virus measures. europe's biggest economy recorded the biggest increasing cases and newly four months. it has just gone 6:00 in london. 7:00 in frankfurt. 9:00 in the difc. warm welcome to the show. good morning to you. , i love the bank of america report. it looks as if the birds have capitulated. positionede who have from bear market rally, that was from 47% last month down to 35%. good morning. annmarie: good morning. or a bear market
rally? some people are thinking this has legs. this s&p 500 fresh record, they finally got there. so much emphasis has been on the retail investors. one investor said, it's like 1999. people just left their jobs to go to a trade -- a trade. 1999, i was in bonds and commodities. i was not dancing to baby one more time. have a look at your markets. i will not sing it. good morning. annmarie: i was thinking of tlc's no scrubs. unchanged.c futures higher after that record finally getting there. pound, 132. an absolute tear. the dollar is near this two-year low. the dollar is doing the heavy lifting.
i remember when we moved to london. we were in the one 70's. brent crude this morning, 7/10 of 1%. we will be waiting for that opec-plus meeting. manus: ok. you are right. the judges at the united nations backed court have found a single hezbollah suspect guilty of the assassination of the former lebanese prime minister. it has failed to convict three others. they had no evidence that the group's leadership or syria were directly involved. the ruling will be to -- upload who hoped itebanon would force a national recognition. the explosion has turned the spotlight on the influence of lebanon's fractured politics. hariri.me now is baja good morning to you.
welcome to bloomberg. can't link has below and the syrian leadership to the death of your father, the assassination. you say, this crime did not take place in a political or historical vacuum. how disappointed are you that they did not find the leadership and syrian leadership guilty? >> thank you for having me. painful day.y i would like to send my deepest whoolences to the persons were assassinated that day and their families. all my family, all my brothers and sisters. i believe in the international justice system. i'm not disappointed at all.
below wasember of has convicted. counts,. all the most important thing, direct evidence has shown clearly that there was no political backing. the assassination happened. it was a political assassination. court has pointed the finger on what happened in detail. the decision happened because of the situation at that time, the political environment. you. manus: who do you believe gave the order for the assassination of your father? bahaa: we will have to see.
we have to go above the international system. mandate is quite narrow and limited. it cannot go after parties. it cannot go after state-sponsored agents. the court was very adamant to talk about the indirect evidence. .he meeting in beirut supported the withdrawal of syria. disarmament of all militias. at that time, there was only one militia. also, the foreign minister. manus: indeed. below must be responsible. it almost became a dream.
we were almost there. then the explosion happened. manus: there's not a lot about it. -- no doubt about it. the nation's growth has been deeply setback. you talk about an abyss in lebanon. corruption, mismanagement, the currency has imploded. many blame the political elite. your brother and aunt are still members of that political elite. do they hold responsibility? auntyour brother and your hold personal responsibility for the implosion of lebanon, economically, as it stands now? said, this configuration must come to an end. we had a financial, economic collapse.
[inaudible] me, that configuration and all who supported them must come to an end. , we are veryhat close. what we wrote about relatives. manus: ok. , i intend to bring the support of the international community. i intend to create prosperity and make lebanon a beautiful country again. that leads me naturally. your political ambitions. do you wish to run for prime minister? bahaa: no. [inaudible] manus: is that emphatic?
no, i will not go into politics. the nation really wants clarity on this. bahaa: i would never want to be premised or. -- prime minister. i intend to serve my country in the public arena. all of this came very abruptly. we are dealing with other offense. -- events. any decision that comes abruptly is not the right decision. i intend to serve my nation in the public arena, one way or another. manus: ok. that could include running for parliament, creating a new party? is that part of your thinking? talk me through how you wish to serve. assessing all the options. i will come back to you on this one. as you know, we are in mourning.
we have 200 dead. we are in close contact with patriots and in court nation. unityieve there has to be . [inaudible] eradicating that configuration from the public sector. constitutional reform. elector law. we will bei -- patient on the evolution of your ambition and what you will do and how you will serve the country. can i ask you, we had the uae and israel do a peace deal, driven with the united states of america. do you see this as a substantial
of -- substantive momentum against iran? this trifecta of power. is this a new momentum against iran? bahaa: it is something that is new. i've always been an advocate of peace. i've never been an advocate of war. the more piece we have, the better we are. i respect the decision. they made an example of what it is, what was. i know they are watching us, all of them. together,t our act hopefully, we have to join that train again. i want to be in peas with everyone. manus: would you be an advocate -- the president, over the
weekend, sounded reluctant talking about maritime, talking about refugees, etc. the difficulty in reconciling with israel. would you stand behind reconciliation with israel as a policy, as something that you would support if you are more involved? -- were more involved? bahaa: we believe in lebanon. we are against no one. we will come to a resolution. the trail of peace, we must get there. [inaudible] referredviously, you to the tragedy from the port explosion just 10 days ago. our thoughts and player9 -- prayers are with those people,
from everybody here and bloomberg and around the world. that explosion, that terror, that horror. do we need -- will that be the catalyst of fundamental political change vis-a-vis has below -- hezbollah in lebanon? bahaa: absolutely. know, the country was devastated. absolutely devastated from a civil war. together. get our act our arabic neighbors and the gcc are watching us. they are watching us now. , the get our act together
international community will come. i can promise you. manus: you believe that. what will come if there's a divorce from hezbollah? briefly, sir. bahaa: i fully believe that. we are one. if we get our act together, our neighbors in international community will fully support us. manus: thank you so much for being with us. our thoughts are with you and the people of lebanon. the son of the former lebanese prime minister and owner of horizon developing group. thank you for your time. anne-marie. annmarie: what a -- excellent interview. he said to you directly, he does not want to be premised are. -- prime minister. wall street hit a record close. will the good times last?
♪ manus: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. annmarie hordern is with me in london. let's take a look at the markets . we've been talking about it. it's about the propulsion to records, tech shares, better than expected housing data. the dollar is steady at the moment, near a two-year low. there's a lot to consider. annmarie: that's right. we are waiting on whether they will strike a deal on stimulus. nancy pelosi suggested yesterday that democrats might be willing to make more cuts to their proposal to seal the deal with republicans. the white house now seems to be
looking at a pared down package around $500 billion. i've heard some people call this a skinny deal. joining us now is kristof donnee. with all this news this morning on the stimulus front, i wonder if it's a double-edged sword. we had better covid trends the last 48 hours. we have s&p 500 at a new record high. can all of this may be mean that d.c. would drag their feet on stimulus, thinking the data is getting better? christophe: yes. mention thatd to we need a new fiscal package. , unemployment benefits or terminating very soon. we need extra benefits package to sustain the recovery of the
u.s. economy, especially on the consumer side. because we are now in the back to school period, the second-most important shopping time after christmas. it's very important to fix, at the congress level, a new package in order to make sure that the recovery, which is a slow pace of recovery, we would stay on track in the months to come. expect, whatgly the markets need, we expect a next her package. -- an extra package. some in the next few weeks. good morning. great to have you with us. i wonder where that would take you from an asset allocation, morant equities.
use a private equity could return a 10% return. what an amazing run. of 52% from the lows. bank of america says positioning is not dangerously bullish. it's a very interesting question. i think we have to distinguish two things. mentiont, we have to the surge we had in markets since the 12th. to very strong stimulative package, both from the monetary policy side and the fiscal policy side. explainination of both why markets responded so strongly. we shifted away the u.s. economy in the world economy from the
recession, a long-lasting recession, which could last year's. it explains why markets responded so strongly. that, we have to have another explanation. which is the innovation. we are ready discussed denver in the past years, the trend we have an innovation. especially technology innovation. innovation is at work in the economy, especially the u.s. economy. the most innovative and disruptive companies are u.s. companies. at the end, we have two engines. the first one is the monetary and fiscal policies. the second engine is a structural one, it's a
long-lasting driver. innovation. continuing ons the bull trend? when you look at the performance, it is very clear. nasdaq is hot. 25%. followed by the s&p, 5%. the rest is lagging, especially europe. , europe indices are still a negative territory's. -12%. , we have monetary and fiscal policies, yes. we don't have the innovation driver. we don't have -- this is why we can't explain -- manus: hold those thoughts. ok. the bullish trend remains. hold onto those thoughts. we will do deeper in a moment.
>> i postponed talks with china. i don't want to deal with them now. with what they did to this country and to the world, i don't want to talk to china right now. administration is also ramping up the threat of a potential delisting. u.s. colleges warned it would be prudent to divest investment away from chinese firms. valid -- us is had a asset allocation and macroeconomic research at picnic left management. you talk about cash as no longer king. we've seen this epic fall in the u.s. dollar. where can investors find these liquid alternatives now? it doesn't make sense to try to improve returns of diversified portfolios. perspective, what we like to look at, to consider from this perspective, is a mix
of liquid assets. private equity. direct real estate. direct equities. all these things make sense to be combined in asset allocation. expected improve returns on the long run. stable theher volatility in the years to come. this is why it is really to consider assets in order to improve the risk comparedthe long run to asset allocation without these assets. from this perspective, when we look at bonds in terms of liquid assets, they are still on track to deliver. manus: hold those thoughts.
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annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. manus cranny, live from dubai. stocks are on fire. he was futures tick higher after closing500 and nasdaq records. nancy pelosi indicates the democrats could cut their stimulus proposal to seal a deal with republicans. president donald trump says he called off last weekend's talks with beijing.
the u.s. state department asks universities to divest from chinese stocks. a virus spike. chancellor merkel rules out loosening of virus measures. they recorded the biggest increase in cases and nearly four months. good morning. we have headwinds. look at what's coming out of germany in terms of virus count as well as spain and italy and greece in terms of measures, closing down nightclubs. when you look at u.s. equity markets, they seem to be shrugging off any worries of the pandemic as they are finally able to reach this high. a lot of that fueled by retail investors. manus: absolutely. you said it yourself. robinhood investors driving the pump into some of the tech. it's the fastest turnaround on record. 52% rally in the s&p 500. stimulus, perhaps the democrats getting ready to
blink. that's step one. on the opposite side, you have of angst with china in terms universities being told to divest. annmarie: those endowments are billions of dollars in chinese stocks. the u.s. state department said it would be prudent to act now. is that a harbinger of what's to come from the u.s. government? will have to see. manus: it could be another executive order. let's have a look at the markets. s&p 500 careening through that high. bank of america says it's not dangerously bullish. 79% of their survey says they expect a stronger economy. this is the asian equity session. capitulation, i would say. the number of people who would say it's a bear market rally, 35% from 47%.
i should've changed my drums to pounds. there she went. will brexit risk reappear? we will talk about brent in just a moment. down 7/10 of 1%. let's talk about the markets. hong kong has been hit by the strongest typhoon this year. it forced disruption to businesses and public transport. saw theer eight storm cancellation of morning trade in the city's stock market. juliette saly has been assessing the impact. good morning. normally, we see the afternoon session resume half hour ago. it is just coming online right now. weakness after the morning session was scrapped because of the storm. we saw trading with the stock connect scrapped in the morning session as well.
derivative trading was delayed. hong kong has said that all tropical cyclone warnings have been canceled. the storm is dissipating. want to check in on one stock in particular. that's hong kong exchange. it came through with a record number today. a property increase of 1%. first half income rising to a $674 million on the back of a 13% gain in revenue. we've seen a state of high-profile chinese ipos hitting the city. a big spike in trading volumes as well. 33% pickup in stock trading helped by those connects to the mainland. look at this company. 22 buyers, five holds, one sale. kongwong saying that hong exchange prospects will be boosted by an influx of ipos including tech giants. with hong speaking kong exchange chief executive charles lee later today.
cash that interview live on bloomberg surveillance at 4:00 hong kong time. annmarie? annmarie: we will be keeping an eye on what's going on in hong kong. they lowered it now to number three storm signal. something obviously having to shut businesses. we will keep an eye on it. another big story of the day. oil prices eased from a five-month high. u.s. gasoline stockpiles are surging. this comes ahead of a meeting of opec and its allies to assess its supply agreement. physical oil prices are weakening. the group is returning let's apply to the market this month. joining us now is managing director at jefferies, covering economics and fixed income. thanks for joining us this morning. obviously, we see in the market now, stockpiles in u.s. gasoline, demand is on shaky ground.
can they continue to keep the supply they have at these levels? will they have to ratchet back if they want to get out of this price range? i'm not sure -- are you there? we might have lostal alia. i am looking forward to this opec-plus meeting. it will be an interesting one. of course, the russian energy minister himself has contracted covid. the meeting will so go ahead. it will be virtual. will beof the agenda the cheaters. nigeria, iraq. can they come into line? manus: we understand a rack is committed to doing an additional 400,000. they were noncompliant. another 400,000. is nigeria back on the
questioning discussion? what constitutes oil? shall we have a look at contango? do we have gtv? this is one of those technological challenges. do we have the three-month time spread? there we go. this is about compliance. this is the essence of it. we have 95% compliance. annmarie: it's about 95%. as a whole, the group has done very well. a lot of this was the deep cut saudi arabia and russia made with the historic deal. it will be very hard to bring countries like a rock and nigeria on board to be 100% compliant. especially when you look at the economies of these countries. rock coming out of the war. they are still dealing with a deep economic crisis. they all need higher oil prices, every single one of them. manus: they do.
annmarie: you brought up libya. what if libya comes back on the market? that will be barrels that they are not expecting. manus: you know how to hustle. you are a hustler with the competent -- compliments. we must not be disingenuous. i did get the contango, finally. i'm not super smart. what was i doing in 1999? in 1991 i was trading crack spreads badly. i had a few tricky incidents with a couple of tango -- takers of oil. the market is worried about demand. look at the iea statement. it is about demand. it's about air travel annmarie:. annmarie:100% -- air travel.
said her husband could make the american nation whole again. other speakers included bill clinton and alexandria ocasio-cortez of the progressive wing of the democratic party. wall street is watching for any clues about whether a biden victory could derail the stock market. ever code cochairmen spoke earlier about joe biden's intelligent tax plan. let's take a listen. >> what we will find in the biden administration is perhaps a commitment to a little more health care and education. certainly antly, big commitment infrastructure. willingnessntly, a to pay for those commitments so that we are not saddling our children and grandchildren with unacceptable that. -- debt. >> we need to spend money. that means borrow money. given the crisis in the economy.
we are taking a look at a cliffhanger here with fiscal stimulus. we thought we would get something by august 1. we are now looking at september. what live look like by november 3? >> the economy will be in recovery. unemployment is still going to be, by far, unacceptable he high. -- unacceptably high. nine or 10%. we will need to have continued stimulus. will hopefully become demised between the democrats and the republicans is needed, for sure. once we get on the path of recovery, and that will not be fully done until we have a widely available vaccine, widely available therapeutics.
until then, people will be fearful of returning 100% to their lives prior to this. once we have that, we need to provide more resources to the government. i think biden has a very intelligent tax plan, part of which is reversing some of, but not all of, the trump tax cuts. for the investments that we so strongly need in this country. >> let me pick up on that. are the investment bankers par exelon's. did you see an uptick in business when the rent came down so far for corporations. it went back up to 20%, which is what vice president biden was talking about. with that hurt your business? >> neither an uptick nor a
downtick. let me explain why. is basically rate the line little bit between the pretax earnings, what goes to shareholders and what goes to the government. we had a policy that 35% went to the government and 65% went to shareholders. honestly note competitive with the rest of the world. majority of the world, the developed world is in the 25-28% range. 25 of the pretax profits go to the government. the rest go to shareholders. that's important. we don't want to lose businesses
domicile in in the united states because they perceive, relative to other countries, that too much of their pretax earnings are being taken by government. stepere probably out of with all but the tax agents in the other direction. what does this really mean if it goes to 28%? instead of 79% of pretax earnings going to shareholders, 72% will go. that is roughly a 10% decline in earnings per share. it will have a little bit of affect on the stock market. that's not a lot more than one years earnings growth, to be honest. manus: that was ralph shall steam.
presidential hopeful joe biden's green plan aims to spend $2 trillion to have the u.s. economy get out of the pandemic era recession. it promises an overhaul of the american energy system and will put climate change at the heart. goalmbitious plan sets a of carbon free by 2035. is it achievable? let's ask our bloomberg green reporter who joins us now. biden's plan is quite different from his plan during the primaries. what changed? why the pivot? >> is quite a smart move. biden realized when he was a candidate that there was a strong push from the progressive arm of his party to try to be much more progressive on climate. once he became the present if
nominee -- presumptive nominee, he realized to win this election and be a strong contender against trump, he needed to bring the party together. he reached out to the progressive arm. he brought in bernie sanders. he created this committee that works through differences and tries to figure out in which places biden is able to go more aggressively than his plan was during the primary. annmarie: thanks for joining us. he's also promising a carbon free electric grid by 2035. how realistic is that? >> it's really ambitious. there is no larger economy in the world that has committed to a 20 -- carbon free electric grid. to be clear, that is only 25% of the missions from a country. yet, there was a report from the university of california berkeley that found using today's technologies, we can get
to 90% by 2035 without too many difficulties. it's really the last 10% that becomes a big hurdle. byt goal -- role is filled natural gas power plants. we will have to find technology alternatives in the next 15 years. it is not unreasonable. cut thel will help us 25% of the missions that come from electricity, but the carbonized many other sectors of the economy including transport. where does this put kamala harris? where does she stand on the climate issues? what does she bring to the table on that debate? >> as a candidate, when she was in the primaries, she was with the progressive arm of the democratic party. when she becomes the vice president, what she brings is a
very strong record on climate justice. she recognizes that vulnerable communities across the world, especially people of color and poor people, are disproportionately affected by climate change. her work during her time in california as the attorney general was to try to bring climate justice issues to the forefront and hold companies accountable to their practices. we will see more of that during her vice presidency. annmarie: thank you very much. joe biden said that the green policy is not just about the environment. he's using it as a source of jobs. coming up, germany records the highest number of new coronavirus cases in nearly four months. angela merkel is ruling out any easing of restrictions. the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
annmarie: good morning. says even when a vaccine becomes widely available, it will take time to get back to normal. the u.s. should not abandon public health measures immediately. take a listen. while to build a up a cumulative amount of by they, it even induced vaccine or by natural infection, to get to the point where you ,eally have avail of protection an umbrella of protection over the community. that won't happen in the first couple of months of availability of a vaccine. we will not be able, i hope we don't, we should not abandon
public health measures even when we get a vaccine. dr. anthony fauci speaking to bloomberg's quick take. germanyide of the pond, is ringing the alarm over the need for public health measures. angela merkel ruled out of the rules. dani burger, what did we hear from her yesterday? will there be new restrictions imposed or is this just status quo? dani: she has to strike a really careful balance. germany is desperate to get economic activity back up. at the same time, we are seeing signs of rising cases. the case count in germany surging to the highest in four months. angela merkel in her purse that -- first appearance since this rise of cases. this should not continue, we need to contain it. warning that there might be
fines levied against people who flout hygiene measures and social distancing measures. she said, we are in the midst of a pandemic. urging the german people not to forget this. germany already requires people to eitherback quarantine for two weeks or present a negative test. saying, that was causing the rises, more mobility and contact with people. german officials saying that a lot of the spikes they have seen were coming from family gatherings, workplaces. this is just a warning, letting the german people know, we will not continue easing anytime soon. there are signs that virus case counts are rising. track, 22 global million. the death toll passing 718,000. what about the rest of europe?
are there any signs of another wave? in greece, they have their own idiosyncratic problems. dani: they certainly do. throughout the rest of the continent, cases are starting to climb. germany does tend to be a primary concern when you look at things like spreads. we are seeing other countries starting to have rising cases. now weighing up having some measures to wear masks in the office because they are seeing cases rise. netherlands is having a difficult time containing the virus. 4000 past case count was in the past week. we are seeing spain recording more than 2100 cases in the past days. manus: thank you very much. dani burger on the covid case count around the world and in germany.
♪ anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets: european open. the cash trade is less than an hour away. your top headlines. sealing a deal. nancy pelosi suggests democrats might be willing to compromise on the stimulus plan. president trump says it was him that canceled last weekends trade talks with