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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 13, 2020 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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covid-19 vaccine trial after an unexplained illness in a participant. futures slip. china's rebound. exports and imports rise in a sign of a robust domestic recovery in the world's second-largest economy. and there are three weeks until the u.s. election. president trump returns to the campaign trail in florida. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. i know we have the banks that we have to spend a lot of time on, but we also see trials halted temporarily by johnson & johnson because of a participant fell ill. but this is part and parcel of what these trials do. tom: you will have to make it up for me. i have read it three times and i don't understand it. said, bondsferro
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closing early is not good. it is extraordinary. the difference versus what we have got here is absolutely extraordinary. francine: on the lockdown, it basically gives you a kind of a benchmark, code red, code rain, code yellow, to get a sense of what you -- code green, code yellow, to get a sense of what you need to do. they are trying to make it simple, but we are not even 24 hours until forest johnson made that announcement. tom: jacob sharfstein of johns hopkins, we talk to him two times a week, the lead quote today in "the washington post be inoat it is real simple -- "the washington post." it is real simple. we're just waiting for a vaccine. leigh-ann: president trump says he feels so powerful after recovering from coronavirus. he wants to walk into a crowd and kiss everybody. the president spoke at a rally in florida. his first stop since his return
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to the campaign trail. there was little social distancing at the event, although some spectators wore masks. supreme court nominee amy coney onrett faces confirmation the second day of hearings. yesterday's hearing wrapped up with her opening statement. she outlined her experience and spoke about the role of the judiciary. she said courts are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in public life. johnson & johnson has temporarily halted its coronavirus vaccine study because a clinical trial participant experienced an unexplained illness. the onus is being evaluated. the same thing happened last month -- the illness is being evaluated. the same thing happened last month with astrazeneca's vaccine. it remains halted in the u.s. in china, another sign of recovery in global trade and domestic demand. exports rose for the fourth month in a row while imports
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also increased, leaving a trade surplus of $37 billion for september. the resurgence of the coronavirus in europe poses a threat to china's recovery. so does tension with the u.s. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. i'm not going to mince words -- not that i am an apple fan boy, withhis is a huge day, futures negative seven. the nasdaq futures well over 12,000, up 48 points already. that is because of the excitement over apple, along with trading positions out there. the gamma trade, the whale trade, the rest of the stuff as well. on the data front, i'm going to
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call it a fairly quiet day with yields coming in. the 10 year yield, -.98, almost rounded up. nine that -- i don't know what to do with one -- 1.0 30 61. francine: european stocks edging lower. i think a lot of it will depend on the bidding period for earnings, but there was a potential setback for progress toward the coronavirus vaccine because of a johnson johnson announced. haven't really looked at hurricane delta and its length all that much, but oil swinging again to a gain. that is the latest with the price of oil. 42.21 as well.e i want to talk about apple with
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the news flow. we don't have that much tech talk with the news across surveillance, particularly with the election flow. but this is not a normal meeting. apple had a september event. they have this event, that event, huge surge in the stock over the last two days. that has been led by dan ives. this new iphone has been the first redo in three years, and i'm going to use this word --entifically "join norma's" " anticipation. i just would say to people going and 100 a.m. pacific time p.m. eastern time that this is not going to be a normal apple meeting. we will have to monitor that throughout the day. nasdaq listing in the last 20 minutes. futures at negative five, dow futures at -84. going to0 -- i'm
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figure out off the bloomberg what that intraday record high is on nasdaq 100. coming up in the next hours, fatty b roll will join us. .atty bay good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. we were talking about the market. let's get straight to scott thiel, blackrock chief fixed income strategist. is the only certainty with the bank meanings that the economic
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outlook is unstable and uncertain? attt: i think if we look what we term our activity restart, how economies have open, we have seen some upsize surprises on balance. we are dealing with the infections, as you were talking a little while ago and how governments deal with that. it seems that at the moment they are dealing with this in local measures. with a different color codes, etc.. we have seenea that the economic trough in activity, that has led to the stronger markets and stronger economic performance. obviously fiscal spending and what we get going forward is going to be mission-critical. the official institutions forecast for economic growth has been revised higher, and that reflects what we call activity restart, which is better than expected economic activity. are we relying too much on monetary policy, and are we going to see a gradual
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weeding off if the policies are there toward more fiscal to rebalance everything? scott: i think that is right. we talk about this policy resolution, how monetary policy and fiscal policy are working together. it is interesting that potential bankers from the united states to europe are calling for continued fiscal response as part of the way governments deal with the covid crisis. i think that is very telling. we have in some respects a combination of both monetary and fiscal policy, but to some degree monetary policy looks like it is pretty much on hold for a long period of time, so has the balance now shifted to fiscal policy, which is why the markets are focused on it. tom: good morning. xu know i'm always on the axis, evermore on the x axis right now. i love what hildebrand barged
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and the rest of you guys have come up with, the future is running at us. on a time continuum i think that is billion in that you go out to future and compounding back to the present reality. discuss. scott: one of the things we have noted is that the covid crisis has accelerated many of the trends that we saw in place before the crisis. for example, when we look at deglobalization, which is something that the u.s.-china trade tension had really put in place in investors' minds, that has been accelerated by the health concerns. the issues around sustainability and putting together a supply chain globally amidst this type of crisis. inequality, another of the trends that was in place that has been exacerbated, accelerated by the covid crisis. even policy resolution, to bring it back to the financial markets -- look at the changes that have
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gone on in central bank policy, that were gradual and step functions before have just been lurched forward. nasdaq 100, 300 points from a record high, futures up 83. as part of your leap forward where this natural disaster has compressed everything, is the dominance and almost a forpolistic dominance technology. scott: the companies in some respects were placed to benefit from more benefit in the kind of response to covid both from an economic perspective and policy perspective and from an individual mobility perspective, so the balance between health and the economy -- those companies continue to do very well. when we look into the future, what we would expect is to see that some of the smaller cap companies that are in that similar position would also benefit as time marches on.
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but clearly the easy view here is that the three big technologies -- not just technology but the companies that have benefited from the crisis to some degree continue their march higher. tom: are them -- francine: are the markets already pricing in a possible joe biden when? scott: it is a very good question. we were talking about it this morning. what is happening is that the uncertainty around the outcome is coming down. over looked at vix futures the turn, over the election period, they have come down from 34 now to high 20's. so i think the market is getting a hold of the widening in the polls that we have seen, a more decisive outcome, and so i think that is part of what we are experiencing here. i think the activity restart which we talked about is the other part. but i do think there is some certainty -- a very close
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election could potentially lead to uncertainty not only on the election night been on the transition of power, etc. obviously a more decisive victory is clarity, less uncertainty and positive for markets. the next step would be until we get the kind of clean sweep as something the markets would reflect on because that would have the biggest impact. tighten, if the polls what would you see happening in the markets? do people buy volatility, or is there another way to play it? what we have noted particularly is the big contract is the way investors have been expressing this concern. so the tighter the polling, the tighter -- the less decisive the outcome, the more volatility we would expect around november 3. but obviously also in the weeks to come after that. and so i think the -- there is one way of playing that,
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obviously, is the vix from the expectation of volatility. the others treasuries. treasury has suffered from being very low and yields have been very stable. i would note that we are basically the same yield we were on the day the fed announced their big policy on march 24. and so in my mind, the equity markets is where that volatility would be expressed. thank you so much, scott thiel of blackrock investment stays with us. coming up, the ghana central bank governor will talk about that. we will also talk about investing. this is bloomberg. ♪
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"bloombergthis is surveillance." i'm leigh-ann gerrans with the bloomberg business flash. largestp at the world's entertainment company, disney, is revamping operations to focus on the thriving disney plus business. the goal is to become a global streaming giant like netflix. disney is putting its tv channel, film studio, and direct to consumer division inside one big group. a warning from the international agency -- energy agency. it's at the oil market will low fromlong-lasting
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the coronavirus and it will peak at a lower level. in a report saturday, the agency said oil consumption will fall 8% this year before returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. hedge funds billionaire ray dalio is donating $50 million to fund a center dedicated to health equity and justice. news giving the money to york presbyterian hospital. the center will focus on reducing differences in access to quality health care that overwhelmingly affects communities of color. that is your bloomberg is this flash. francine? tom? tom: thanks so much. mentioning hydrocarbons, we are glad to have the governor of the central bank of ghana with us and if human us. scott thiel continues with us.
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i want to do the blackrock math, and what it comes down to is that we are all flying blind. don't have a risk-free rate, we don't know what the map is, we don't have the sharpe ratio and we don't have the anchor anymore. daydo you do the math every in fixed income? scott: i think you have to assume that the low level of volatility is very important for valuing any asset class. equities and any other fixed income instruments as well. we talked about this. monetary toom fiscal policy has important implications down stream. it would suggest that monetary policy is on hold and we are at the lower bound. treasury bonds do not fulfill the same type of resilience for investors that they have in the past, and the total return may be on a multi-year basis, it may be negative. that is something we have not experienced before. you have to look at the asset
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classes in that context. the lack of volatility can obviously be supported for certain asset classes, but it can also obviously suggest that the role that treasuries play, particularly in the risk, is less than it has. tom:2 william li3 explained. what do we use2 some form of the derivative market, is a proxy for the credit babbling yield. that out there somewhere? the way to think about it more is from a portfolio perspective. a holistic way to think about it is if treasuries don't offer you the resilience as a result of covid come as a result of those -- the future running at us, what does he echo look at it on a portfolio perspective. that might be private markets,
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that might be commodities, that might be -- there are different aspects. i think a one-size-fits-all is a kind of tough thing to go forward, particularly given the environment that we are in. but i think you are very much onto the right thing, which is treasuries don't give you the resilience they used to give you, so what else does he echo i think that is a very specific -- what else does? i think that is very specific portfolio effort. francine: what do you do with italian btp's at the moment? if you look at spreads between german and italian 10 year bonds, it is pretty significant, nothing like we have seen in recent history. scott: we have been long peripheral bonds in our asset allocations on the view of the power of the ecb's program, and if we look particularly at the outperformance of bunds relative to treasuries, there is this view around the strength of the ecb program. i think the risk here, francine,
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is the recovery fund. obviously that has fallen off of people's radar screens. as the approval process goes forward. so for us the trend continues, the oppression continues. one thing the investors need to keep an eye on, it that approval process, it is not our base case. that would be an important part of that investment peace. but for now, peripheral bonds, the spread for per debt for compression continues, and i don't see something that disturbs that other than the e.u. recovery fund. francine: what about guilds? they are partly moving because of rex it but partly also because of what we heard from the -- because of brexit but also because of what we heard from the governor. is he ready to go to negative rates? scott: the policy there, i think they would prefer not to do that, but we look at the u.k. specifically this week in our most recent weekly, and one of
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the things that we would note is that the combination of the virus and the government's response and brexit have left the u.k. somewhat struggling behind the euro area and the u.s. in terms of the recovery. that makes sense given what we have -- what we know particularly about brexit. so gilts again, having outperformed treasuries, underperformed buns, it seems to be in that range of fundamentally reflecting kind of the broad performance of the u.k. economy, given again the policy response and brexit. i think obviously brexit is a big issue for investors. you know, one of the things that is important for gilts is that they don't offer a diversifying future from buns or from orasuries that from bunds from treasuries. they lose their international appeal to some degree, and that is something obviously the bank
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is going to be very focused on, that governments will be focused on. from a fundamental perspective, the u.k. has lagged the recovery in many respects because of brexit and their response, so gilts seem to be reflecting that. i don't think there is anything particularly outstanding about their value. , scotte: thanks so much thiel. you can also tune in later today as we host the imf world bank later meeting panel. we have a former blackrock governor, larry fink. you can watch that at live go in part at 1:00 p.m. new york time, six a clock p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ francine: -- president donald trump and
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diving right back into campaigning. he told an audience in florida he felt so powerful after recovering from the coronavirus that he wanted to kiss everybody. there was little social distancing at the rally at the orlando sanford international airport. some spectators did wear masks. a fanden says he is not of expanding the supreme court. it's his clearest answer on the issue after weeks of dodging the question. biden was speaking in an interview in cincinnati on the idea of adding seats to the supreme court. it has gained traction among democrats. many are angry after republicans are rushing through the confirmation of amy coney barrett. infections are soaring in republican strongholds and the key swing state of wisconsin. three weeks before the election the hardest hit states are north dakota, south dakota, montana,
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wisconsin, and utah. hospitalizations are on the rise in all five states. a hedge fund billionaire says china has the advantage over the u.s. on a range of issues. the wilkin institute global conference. >> china is -- time is on china's side and it is not on the u.s.'s for various development. what will be a difficult situation in the new administration is, destiny is on the side of china growing and doing better probably. says one of china's advantages is having higher interest rates which means it is in a better position of not having to print money. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
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of its covid-19 vaccine after a participant fell ill. ,oining us now is our expert bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceutical analyst. are we rushing this too much? global stocks are worried we have a setback in this trial. how many setbacks do we usually have if we were not in pandemic mode? >> hello, francine. i don't think we are rushing it. i think this is the proof of the opposite. they are taking their time and anytime there is any single worry they are trying to ask -- it tells us the opposite. isn we worry about rushing when someone is going to come in with not enough data in terms of --ety
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currently this seems like the right way to be doing things. tom: if we get a vaccine walk us through how it is distributed. pick a date. let's say we have magic and april 1 of next year we get a vaccine that works. what is the distribution -- what does the distribution of the vaccine look like? sam: at the end of the day, by the first of april we will know which vaccines have worked. have quite a lot of doses manufactured and potentially put into files. he question -- into vials. then the question becomes how can they get that from a central place to individual regions. that will vary country by country. in a country like the u.k. where you have the national health service it is likely to be a little faster than when you have
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a dispersed health system like the u.s.. francine: is this vaccine like the flu vaccine that we will need a new one every year or it is one and done? sam: it's possible we needed every year, but that's not because it's like the flu vaccine. the flu vaccine we need more than one because it is changing all the time. does not change as much, meaning if you do need it more than once a year or something like that it's because the immunity wanes and you need boosters. tom: the various vaccines that are out there and the disappointment, i think this is so important. phaseive percentage of three trials fail, don't the? -- don't they? the a lot of drugs fail in phase one or phase two stage.
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,ut of course you get failures that is the beginning and end of the biotech story. you have the probability people are having a phase 3 success rate is 50 to 60%. that's a pretty chunky number. the issue is that it is going to be less about total failure and more about how good it is, how safe it is. is it something that is going to protect me at the 90% level? or 50%? about polio vaccines, some vaccines like measles we are familiar with, what do they care at? ure at? sam: a lot of vaccines are at that level. thatan have hope in because these are being developed by the same people who develop those vaccines. francine: thank you so much.
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later today we speak with johnson and johnson chief financial officer on this important development of the covid-19 trials being halted after one patient fell ill. don't miss that at 10:00 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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tom: bloomberg surveillance from london and new york. francine lacqua and tom keene. we are seeing this rebound continued move up in nasdaq futures and even spx futures at negative three. right now we turn our attention to the success of africa.
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on cases andics deaths in this horrific pandemic are really quite good. clobbered have been by this pandemic on every economic front. ghananance minister of writing in recent days. joining us with the bank of ghana, the governor of their central bank, ernest edison joins us. thank you for joining us. i would guess the education at cambridge and mcgill did not prepare you for the shock of this natural disaster. anecdote of the shock of this pandemic to the economy of ghana and the people of ghana. ernest: thank you very much for that. impact of thehe pandemic surprised everybody to
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wake up and not be able to go to work because we are afraid -- economy -- that was the real job. gdp andn i look at the the imf assistance to you, the request for aid, it is shocking to see gdp per capita estimated to go down this year. what do you need from the world bank? what do you need from the international monetary fund to get to a vaccine, to get to the other side of this crisis? ernest: i think that the question of financing, if you look at the impact of the crisis the bulk of it has been on government expenditures. the government has had to roll
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out a lot of programs to support the society and the economy in terms of mitigating the impact on households and businesses. get about $1 billion from the imf credit facility at the beginning of the year, but it was quite clear that we would need much more than that. in effect neutralizing the coronavirus. when you look at the euro bond market it could remain fairly inaccessible to ghana. what does that mean for the stability of your currency? us we: fortunately for have a well diversified economy. ofyou look at the beginning 2020, other than oil which has been impacted by the decline in crude oil prices, we have done relatively well with exports.
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steady been able to hold -- the plan is to build more reserves this year, an additional 300 million and prepare for 2021 -- we will deal with that when we get there. ,rancine: can i ask you about you also bought a large amount of government bonds. i think it amounted to around $1.7 billion around. are you planning on doing more? the plan is for this bond purchase. this coronavirus impact is unprecedented.
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this is a new territory, we are all trying to adapt to the situation that we have never seen before. would have to be very innovative in how we handle this. thethe plan is to stick to $10 billion. we don't anticipate that in 2021 we will have to do more. tom: thank you for joining us this morning. we begin to look towards the world bank, jon ferro's conversation yesterday and the international monetary fund, francine with her important panel. william lee will join us from the milken institute. please stay with us. nasdaq futures melt off. s&p futures negative three. this is bloomberg. there is an apple meeting, when
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is it? why are all my kids iphones dying? ♪
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>> this is bloomberg
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surveillance. the world's biggest shipping line has raised its full-year guidance. recovery in demand at a time when they are aggressively cutting costs. 15%nish company represents of the world posse born freight. amazon's two day prime sale is underway. it is expected to give the world's largest e-commerce company and early advantage over brick and mortar rivals. the move could single-handedly yank the pivotal holiday season forward. their vision fund will capitalize on the investor frenzy surrounding so-called blank check companies. the fund will outline plans for a special purchase acquisition vehicle in the next few weeks. bloomberg has learned the targets of the blank check company have not been
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determined. seekank is expected to outside funds and contribute its own capital. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much, leanne. is givingon christmas me whiplash. we are focusing on halloween then there is the u.s. election. one story it's already christmas. tom: retail is messed up. we will get coverage as retail earnings come in. i hear there is a panel coming up. francine: there is, later tonight as we host the imf panels. bankll have a former of england director and blackrock director larry frank. terminalatch it on the and you can watch parts of it on bloomberg tv starting at 1:00 p.m. new york time. an important panel there.
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william lee has been a good friend of this program with his wonderful and unique perspective on hong kong and his service to the international monetary fund, his work at citigroup, now helping mr. milken at the milken institute. he will have a panel today and other guests will stop by. you will have a virtual pin drop. in that panel they will actually discuss the scope and scale of what is needed. to me this is the elephant in the room. we are barely talking about as a percent of gdp the amount of financial assistance that will be needed to get through this. how far off are we right now? william: the numbers we are talking about in certain states are in the one trillion to 2 trillion range and i think most guesses are you need more than that, possibly three.
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it's not how much, it's where it's going and who is getting it. the failure of monetary and fiscal policy in the u.s. is that the money is not getting to the right people. businesses that are starved forecast don't -- don't -- cash don't have enough. you do institutional economics like no one, who do we blame? reserve was not made in 1912 to do this. i am mixing up my centuries. in 1912, the fed was not supposed to do this. where is the government? volunteerede have to do this and failed to do that. they have not set the criteria to get the small businesses. treasury and regulators have to be more innovative and allow financial markets to disburse
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funds the way expertise allows it to. instead they have relied on the banking system and the bureaucratic small business administration to do that distribution and that's where it went wrong. francine: when will that change? william: i think nobody is recognizing that and they will stay with the same old procedures. they have now said, let's try to revamp main street lending and to get it down to smaller businesses. the fed has guaranteed they get paid back and the bank has to be guaranteed to get paid back. that innovative business that is about to go out of business, they want to revamp themselves and create more remote facilities and digitalization. if you are going to be part of that business, do the best you can and make a lot of money. that is where private equity and private financing can come in. talk about the
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covid crisis being a big reset for the world economy, in general being a rethink of how things work and nobody is looking at what you just laid out. is anything actually going to change once the crisis is over? william: i hope that what will change is a much faster adaptation to new technologies enablell in ayer -- better distribution. we should look at what is going on in the rest of the world. the re-shifting of supply chains isause of trade tensions doing a lot of good. having people rethink optimal globalization. and a balance of risk special orientation. the imf -- businesses --
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bank, the imf,ld and the milken institute i am going to guess what is off the record is a discussion of one of your expertise is, hong kong. give us your update on the new hong kong. is there a new hong kong? william: the big question is, what does china need? does it need an offshore center anymore? does it need a place where rule of western law still exists? does it need a place where businesses can operate under the same set of rules they have around the world? if china feels they can go rogue and do it themselves or that they are so big that they truly , i thinkiddle kingdom china is going to say we don't need hong kong. we can let it become another city. it can be a suburb of shenzhen. shenzhen is our tech center and that will be where we get the
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emphasis because that is where xi jinping has gone to make a speech about the new technology and the new wave of china these days. kong's future are tied together with the view of whether china could start to go it alone as it plans. china once new technologies and banking system centered around itself. the discussion beyond that will be how that's not realistic in a world where we are doing business according to a well-known and established set of rules and china has to start playing that game. tom: how do chinese banks play into this? there is a huge opaqueness there. do chinese banks need hong kong as a conduit to the world? william: they used to think that. now i think the chinese financial center rather than the onshore financial center.
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chinese banks have gotten better in risk management, but we are not sure how safe the banking because the amount of state-sponsored enterprises getting lending, not just at the federal level but the state and local level we have to worry about government funding and government projects that can go belly up and get covered up quickly. tom: thank you so much. william lee of the milken institute. there chief economist. a wonderful panel today, i look forward to the notes off of that panel. coming up in our next hour on up, west texas crude $.70. on the supply mysteries and what is important from iea is the demand mysteries as well.
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futures at negative five, dow futures -117. it is nasdaq that refuses to go down. bloomberg with our special coverage of the apple meeting. look for that at 1:00 east coast time. from london, new york, this is bloomberg. let me look at the dollar. a bit of strength for the dollar. the euro under 118. this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪
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bounce forward, with comcast business. new before apple launches a iphone, first major redo in three years, is this bull market about tech or about a rotation
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to everything else? in this hour, nasdaq up mega again. this hour.n the united kingdom locks down in various ways. there are shades of pub closure. 21 days until the election and is so powerful, biden considers a reckless trump. dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins says the president's physician -- the president position is not a credible source. tom keene in new york and francine lacqua in london. nasdaq up. we have to take a moment here and talk about all the medical experts that we talked to,


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