tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 15, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT
debate. actually, there is no debate tonight. but there is zero debate, there wave of earlys voting." north one in five in carolina that did not vote in 2016. markets call it risk off. the real yield once more -1.00 %.even talk about socially distancing. cbs willandidates, offer big brother, the houseguest. they are sequestered. they are not allowed to watch any trump or biden campaign ads. punishment, i say. ," tomberg surveillance keene in new york, francine lacqua and london. i can forget about brexit. it is gone. it is adaptation at the federal
with the pandemic, so different in america. francine: i'm sorry, tom, you cannot forget about brexit. almost there, and certainly by next monday, london will have moved to tier two, which is where you can still meet people outside but you cannot let people come into your home. we should have a better idea of what london will become over the next couple weeks. is similar moved by the french president, emmanuel macron, announcing that eight cities will go in lockdown. that is hurting a lot of the stocks. go, there are eight ways to and just because there is compressed time, are the chancellor of the exchequer and the prime minister on the same page? francine: they are on the same page, but we heard from the london mayor, who is from the labor party, and the opposition leader, asking for a national lockdown. we call it the circuit breaker.
the idea is for two weeks we go back in lockdown so that the cases go down. this is not what the prime minister wants to do, but we also know that the london mayor will just ask for more money. i'm getting choked up because there is a lot going on. he will ask for more money from parliament to make sure that the people who cannot go to work don't go hungry. tom: francine is choked up because she bought the 50 year italian bond. with these disinflationary tendencies, we are seeing bond prices elevating europe with yields down to unimaginable lows. , here is ritika
gupta. of passing ahances pre-election stimulus are all but gone. steven mnuchin is blaming politics, saying democrats do not want to give president trump something to brag about in his
campaign. democrats say the white house never took the need for another stimulus seriously enough to push for a compromise. senate democrats are all about -- are using their final day of questioning at the confirmation hearing for amy coney barrett to grill him -- to grill her about statements made about her by president trump. and whether the president has the right to delay the election -- and an absolute right to pardon himself. fromners will be banned mixing with other households indoors. the new rules start this weekend. london will soon hit an average of 100 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people. british prime minister boris johnson told
e.u. leaders he is disappointed by the slow progress on brexit trade talks, saying he will decide at an e.u. summit this week whether it will continue working for a deal.
previously, johnson had threatened to walk out today if there was no clear agreement inside. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: i'm going to keep the data check short to get to the landscape of american politics. futures -35. -41 earlier. risk off, and the writ -- the the vix.out, 28.23 on if i had to single out anything, it is disinflationary indications within europe. the swiss 20-year, .315 negative come in. down to record lows or negative, down to record lows or recent record lows. shockingly lower. francine: stocks are tumbling in europe. we had disappointing earnings news and disappointment on the
u.s. stimulus, which is playing out in europe, and a fourth these lockdowns by some of the region's largest cities. also hurting investor confidence. you can see the stoxx 600 down some 2%. i'm looking up pound because we are on brexit watch, especially today and tomorrow as you leaders meet in brussels -- as e.u. leaders meet in m brussels. tom: launching moment to moment, our political reporter -- ryan, i don't think there is enough made about the history this evening to explain this to our international audience. there are three major private cbs --s -- abc, nbc, and and tonight we will have one candidate on nbc, one candidate on abc at the same time. what do you expect to witness? : well, it is going to be a little tricky for people like
myself who need to watch both of them, so i guess i will be doing a split screen. a lot of people are just picking one and going with it, so they will really and up speaking on base, if you like biden, why would you watch trump? if you like trump, why were you watch biden? that is probably a metaphor for politicians in america right now. everybody is in their own bubble. tom: i am going to go to the money. it is extraordinary, over $700 billion that the vice president has raised in the last 60 days -- 700 million dollars that the vice president has raised in the last 60 does. president trump, widely reported coming is trying to allocate tvm one state to the other ad spending. how important is the money divide? givinghis really is biden the advantage to press
into territory that he might not have if he didn't have the money. liken run ads in places ohio and iowa without committing to the states. normally they have to make a decision at this point about, ok, do we think it is still winnable in this state, or should we commit our resources to this other state as a must win? with the kind of money that biden has right now, and more importantly the advantage that he has over trump in the cash on hand, he can go ahead and say late in the game you're doing well and you just keep putting troops in other places. francine: what can you tell us about the strategy of each candidate now? are we just need to -- talking about undecided voters, or is it just making sure that people will vote for you and will actually show up and vote?
ryan: they appear to be following different strategies on that. the biden campaign very much is in -- playing it safe mode. they are trying to run out the clock without causing controversy. i think you saw that with packing the court, where he did not want to say either way because he didn't want to say that could be said he he saids, when asked i'm not going to answer that because if i do you will write a story about it. it is remarkable for anyone to say at this point in the campaign. he should be begging anyone to write about him. trump, it is hard to get a handle on his strategy. he spends a lot of time talking to people on fox news, and that may be because he likes doing that. maybe he thinks that is a way to shore up his grassroots, his base. and a lot of what trump has done is aimed at the people who
already support him and are really trying to amp up turn not -- turn out. he's doing the traditional things, trying to reach out to undecided voters. heartu can see his is more with the grassroots. ryan teague beckwith, thank you. there has been a shift, as there always is as we near an american election. the discourse has changed, to say the least. david westin will tame the discourse this afternoon. this is in the 12:30 moment, with two from florida, neal dunn and debbie wasserman schultz on florida. the pulling there is really interesting, to say the least. it would weston with an update. futures -38 -- david westin with an update. routers -38. this is bloomberg. stay with us.
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. the institute of national finance has gathered top executive this week to tackle the most critical issues facing the financial industry as a result of covid-19. anne richards is among the speakers at the virtual event and joins us. usually joining us from the imf world bank meetings. there is so much going on that we want that we were not sure what to start with in speaking to you -- we were not sure what to start with in terms of speaking with you. the worry is that there is a shock out there because of the u.s. elections, brexit, covid and all the uncertainty. what is the market looking at? because is interesting
it looks like we had six months of the year -- then a bunch of stuff has been compressed in the last two to three months of the year. when you look at how markets rallied so strongly fueled by that with everything going again, i think people balked at the risk of a second wave, and the hope was a combination of the monetary stimulus that we had come and fiscal spending that came on the back of it, that that was going to be one and done and we were going to be through this. that is where the market was pricing. you can really see it coming through in markets today, for example, and the reality is that the markets were overpricing that. and now the risk of that second-order effect, with stim is being stepped back from some of that support being taken away, you can start to see the effect coming to the market. we are realizing the world is not a perfect place and we have
to bring this in the long haul. checkwill be a real alley -- a reality check. we bring in more monetary policy if needed? i think you can. the lesson of the last nine months -- and actually you could go back further than that -- the capacity of balance sheets to spanned and -- to span and act , effectively government debt issuance, that has gone much further and has much more effect than any of us thought was possible. said it ise unconventional monetary policy that has become very conventional, and it does not work as seriously. i think you see that support going through there. i think the reliance in the stimulus is continuing. and the likelihood of a second
wave -- that is gone, so you are seeing that reality check. in and of itself, it is not quite sufficient. we need more on the back of it. tom: i want a bankers fee when you sell off fidelity international. seven point 86618 $4 billion. the is the symbolism of rollup of the mutual fund business by these banks? anne: it is so interesting. i think what is going on here is the realization from many it hases -- historically been an intermediary, understanding that what they the ultimately is connectivity with the end customer, so you are moving into more directly with the customer and you put this together with -- how doition around you connect in with the
customer? i think that is what this is all about. sois the beginning of this that you can do more joined up delivery to the direct customer. to do that, you need to be able to manufacture the investment offering. i like the idea. we are having a little bit of audio trouble and we will continue with that. i like the idea of manufacturing product innovation. what do you manufacture here? can you manufacture active management, or do you manufacture what i call enhanced index products? is the same thing at the end of the day. when i started in the investing world, benchmarks were kind of stuck in roughly how you would do it. we got into it for a while that active management had to be relative to the benchmark. what you get with indexed customization and what you get with truly active management is something that is reflective of
what the end comes to. the active and passive debate in aboutbecomes -- it is capital at its most fundamental, and you can do that through customizing business or you can do that, taking some shares and -- tom: let's continue, anne richards with us from fidelity international, their chief executive officer. futuresat -40, dow negative 2.94. also -- all sorts of other correlated issues. of -- the world bank and the international monetary fund on bloomberg surveillance this morning, on the kneeled for that on the need for fiscal stimulus. vitor gaspar on the imf. this is bloomberg. good morning.
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." we were talking a bit about the industry, and we are with anne fidelity international chief executive officer. under immense pressure as a whole to find yields -- are we going to see too much risk-taking in certain parts of the financial markets? anne: it is kind of an interesting concept if you think
about what we are trying to do, which is, for the most part, create the needs by which people can save for retirement in old age. that is a big driver, whether they are doing that through institutions or wealth managers or whatever. there is a need to find the generate return on that. when it comes to specific risk-taking, everybody's risk appetite is different. what we have been seeing in the market is whether you call it a two-tier economy or a two-tier market, or a shipped recovery -- lots of different ways of describing it -- there has been more discrimination between sectors about who the winners and losers might be, and actually within sectors, who the winners and losers might be. that takes you to the point of, you have to understand what is the inherent risk within an industry, and within an
individual company or sector, what is going on in an effective way. is it management? i think when you look at that, our job in terms of discriminating between the companies that are likely to do badly is super important. that means balancing, too much has been priced in because one of the risks is, did you pay the right price for it, or did you overpay? in this environment, our assessment of what constitutes risk is very different from simply looking at volatility and looking at some of the short-term moves that you see, and is much more about the likelihood of the business to get through this. that is one of those really big drivers, and it comes down to individual stocks at the end of the day. francine: we are just getting some breaking news out of brussels, that the u.k. movement is necessary for a brexit breakthrough because we are waiting to find out what happens with brexit. what does it mean for asset
managers? him speakinghave life with reporters there. but a number of participants in the financial industry have already taken steps to be sure they can service their clients. what does it mean for asset managers? ise: for asset managers, it the one thing that we have had sort of a good tie on is the preparation time for figuring out where you need to get the licenses, the regulatory permissions, what you need to have. we are a that has just shown over the last 6, 9 months or so that we can operate virtually very well. so our ability to move things around, there is a lot of time in preparation that has gone into that. we are fearful of our ability -- , because webility have demonstrated as an industry that we cannot do that through brexit. the risk is that we end up with a fragmentation of the u.k., the
biggest financial center in europe, which is an incredibly well, even despite the threats of brexit overhanging our heads. you have very well-managed and very well integrated supply chains right through the capital market structures. and i think the risk is that we are going into a more fragmented world, which means it is hard for capital of around, as managers might have to separate legal entities, separate teams. they might have to physically separate the administration, and all of that when you put that together is a less efficient industry, and that means ultimately more cost, more friction in the flow of capital around, and that is not what we need right now. tom: anne richards, thank you so much for joining us. she is with fidelity international. she is there chief executive officer. there pendingruta a final line. he is part of a continental europe group really in search of
an older way. there is no other way to put it, right? vincent: yes, he was part of the frugal four, so there was pressure when it came to the e.u. recovery fund. he plays a different role talking about brexit because he is much more a consensus with german and others about how you do with the u.k. he says a breakthrough in these talks is still possible, but remember, we should find out more in the next 24 hours. once again, another brexit deadline that you and i are looking at. tom: very good, anne richards here with fidelity international. today, joyce chang of j.p.morgan. this is bloomberg. stay with us. ♪ hope it doesn't cost too much.
i hope my insurance pays for it. can you tell me how much this will be? - [cashier] 67. - sorry. - wait, have you heard about goodrx? goodrx finds free coupons to help you save up to 80% on your prescriptions. - wow, i had no idea. - [announcer] goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. >> in the administration -- in your country, does that worry
,ou when it comes to recovery being optimistic before the summer? >> i think the best guarantee for recovery in europe is that .e take necessary measures it will then be too lenient or will not be able to reach these decisions. to contain the price, that would be of a huge disadvantage to the economy, so of course, at a lower spreading rate with a -- and ifin taking up it is spreading again, you knew take theyou need to necessary measures. it provides clarity, a government that is absolutely committed to beat the virus. that is what people want and that will create stability in the end. i'm absolutely convinced of that. i am not in the business of all
orse words of continuing improving or accelerating or whatever. i don't like that. the united kingdom has a huge , economically and geopolitically. the e.u. has a huge interest to get a deal done both economically as well as geopolitically. there is so much happening in the world. and the united kingdom not reach a deal? >> >> hopefully we have a deal, and intensify or continue. >> thank. >> thank you.
tom: our maria tadeo in conversation and questioning their with the gentleman from the netherlands. we welcome all of you on bloomberg surveillance. francine lacqua in london, i am tom keene in new york, and anne richards is with us from fidelity international, there chief executive officer. it is stunning to see the disinflationary tendencies in europe. we see it fullface in the credit yield, in the 5.5 year breakevens. you are expert in this mathematics. how do you reverse the glide path of disinflation? anne: you are not going to reverse the glide path to disinflation until we have a meaningful change and central-bank policy come and that is not happening anytime soon. is the right that question to be asking. i think the question when you see asking is how can we take advantage of the environment that we are in in order to build toward -- to take advantage of
the disruption we have been through, to take advantage of the changes we have all had to bring into our business models, to say how do we build a new and better economy on the back of this extraordinary circumstance? that is the opportunity that sits within our grasp right now, and i think that is what we should all be that policymakers and businesses -- focused on. the bill back difference to some of these bigger picture things that we know we have to address, whether it is around climate, whether it is around sustainability more generally, these are the things that we should try and tackle now on the back of this gift that we have had of optional low interest rates. tom: i'm looking at the negative rate experiment. coming up at the bloomberg, i have a negative rate to switzerland at least out to through the use as well. when do we end with the
commercial banking/investment world of negative interest rates, or do you just see it to fidelity international perpetuity? anne: what it means is that borrowing costs are incredibly low. they are incredibly low for government, and they are incredibly low for businesses. we know that we have to reinvent so much of the global economy on the back of what has happened. we know that there is a huge amount of investment that we need to make into the green economy. we know that there is a huge amount of investment that we need to make in order to bring up income levels, improve internet conductivity, improve education and health care systems. we should be thinking about mechanisms to take advantage of ratewonderful low interest policy that we have in order to boost productivity and bring up, address some of those challenges that have been very difficult to deal with in the 10 years since the global financial crisis.
i am apositive person, glass half-full person. i think that is what we should be thinking about, and i think when you look at the imf and the things it is talking about, how we really shape the world, where we figure out how we -- these are things that we should be talking about really seriously. tom: being optimistic and being francine ran out and purchased the austrian piece 98 years or so out, and she is up with a yield under half a percent. these are bizarre times. francine: when you look at european yields, they are pretty bizarre. is this what we should be doing? politicians are still dealing with the crisis, so as an investor, how do you choose -- or how do you make sure that you
put your money in countries or industries that are going through this change, that are taking advantage of the crazy yield on the austrian coupon? seen moreink you have engagement between policymakers and businesses in the last six months, probably more than you period in myany pi career. they are controlling to an extent the access to capital markets. what we need is policymakers to give us the framework that we can be part of in order to help direct the capital where it needs to be targeted. simply speaking, what i mean by that is rather than thinking about individual infrastructure projects, can we think about a framework that thinks about the impact of borrowing, where it has been invested, how we create the framework with the tools to give you the assurance that any money raised is being spent appropriately.
how do we pull these things together to direct the rebuilding of economies, may be less organization, may be more spending and infrastructure going into less urban areas, more equal economy potentially arriving. that is how we have to come together. i think it is achievable. i think that particular with the leadership the imf has shown that we could really start to a global level, i think that would be a huge step forward if we could do that. much,ne: thank you so anne richards, fidelity international g fixative officer, joining us for the last 41. here is first word news with three. -- with ritika gupta. ritika: house speaker nancy pelosi told msnbc the two sides are far apart on worker safety, school funding, and a strategic testing plan. treasury secretary steven
mnuchin says democrats don't want to give president trump something he can brag about. in the last weeks of the campaign. democratic presidential candidate joe biden raked in a record $383 million last month. that wrote the mark. the biden campaign set in the month before. the massive fundraising holes have helped biden and the democrat -- and the federal reserve -- amanuel macron has imposed curfew on paris and other reader cities in france. part of a series of new measures aimed at continuing the spread of the coronavirus. rising infections have started to fill up hospital beds. robert smith will pay about $140 million to end a four-year u.s. tax investigation. bloomberg learned smith will also have to admit wrongdoing. it focused on assets held in offshore tax havens.
global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg. it wille goldman sachs, be fascinating the distinction between goldman sachs and morgan stanley and everyone else. coming up, devin ryan will join us with jmp securities, with morgan stanley, to release this morning as well. futures at -35. the vix down almost 22 figures. risk off. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
keene in new york. an extra neri news flow today. we want to get to global wall street. the transformation of goldman sachs. and with morgan stanley out this morning, what james gorman has done. ryan, thanks so much for being with us. here is the symbol drill. morgan stanley, coming out of a horrific crisis, we know what the japanese did. up 8% per year. goldman sachs legs up 3% per year. -- lags up 3% per year. our goldman sachs and morgan stanley in a new regime where we can expect much better shareholder return? honestly, great questions, and i think both morgan stanley and goldman sachs companies that are changing faster than the
broader financial system, so that puts them into a good place for the future. regulated somewhat slowly, so it will take used to play out, but morgan stanley is further along in the journey. if you look back at the last 10 years, they more recently brought trade, they are really shifting dramatically towards asset and wealth management, steady capital businesses away from the mixed toward the treating and capital markets. goldman is doing the same thing. they are doing it somewhat differently and they are in an earlier stage than that. tom: i saw james gorman at whole foods last night and we refining over avocados. i'm kidding. but if i saw him at whole foods, i would ask him what is next with e*trade and the continued relation of morgan stanley taking gorman best practices internationally. is that feasible? devin: internationally i think
they already are international. and so the opportunities to take the network that they have built , internationally, the distribution capabilities and connect more into that -- i think that is a big part of it, with a terrific presence in the u.s. they are going to move some of that product injure international clients, so there is this cross-selling opportunity. probablyhat word is overused, cross-selling, but that is really the game here, to acquire new customers, be able to serve them with existing products that you have, leverage and a lot of things like technology. 10 years ago there was not technology available to utilize, and so that is how you are going to squeeze more out of the class or morgan stanley figuring that
out. they will go more international, but they are more -- they are already in a pretty good starting place with their clients. francine: we talk a lot about cross border m&a in europe. why would you not, given the strong numbers that we have seen from u.s. banks, ca u.s. bank come in europe? devin: you could. i think right now m&a is definitely picking back up in financial services, and you are seeing more broadly in the last nine months, we have had to deal with a lot in terms of his discontinuity and focusing on the operations. the last three-month is really the strategy, and i think m&a, --ther it is cross-border or on the lower end of the ranges, and firms are looking to -- i
think the m&a that we have seen over the last couple of months withwill likely continue asset managers, will likely to be an area of focus. banking is always complicated with the regulatory elements, but there are capabilities, especially technology capabilities that in number of institutions like to add in as a number of these firms connect with customers in ways historically that they have not crossed a broader set of products and services. francine: thank you so much, devin ryan. let's get to the bloomberg business ritika gupta. ritika: taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing has raised its full-year forecast, the longest contractor posted a -- the largest contractor posted a 36.6 percent increase in profit. in advance of the new iphones.
home sales in greenwich connecticut had the strongest quarter in more than a decade. new yorkers piled into the town searching for extra space in the pandemic era. sales of single-family houses in greenwich rose 70% in the third quarter. the median price, a little more than $2.1 million. as a sign of the impact of coronavirus having on education, american colleges are seeing sharp declines in enrollment of new students this semester. a report says a number of graduates enrolled fell 16%. total graduate enrollment is down 4% from a year ago. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: up next, we track covid-19. with dr. william moss, johns hopkins school of public health director. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. we have been tracking covid-19 and the extra measures put in place for some of the big cities, the big capitals in europe. not into go further lockdown but just more restrictions, and moments ago, is to hancock, the health secretary in the u.k., saying that london will move into a tier two virus alert level. we do that would be from saturday morning, but interesting to see how they see this moving, putting this in place to stop infections rising. this is also what we know about mr. matt hancock. the prime minster tried to give some clarity on monday and there are three alert levels. 1, 2, 3, high or very high. this gives an indication on what you can do and cannot do. no decisions have been made on
the regions that are in second jeer at the moment. unclear whether they will go -- second tier at the moment. unclear whether they will go into third tier. let's go straight to dr. william moss, don tompkins bloomberg school of public health -- johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. dr. moss, thank you for 20th. how can we accelerate the work on the virus vaccine while keeping it safe? william: there are a number of ways that we can accelerate this process, and i know there are people who are concerned that we are moving too quickly and perhaps not safely. but one way to do it is to combine different phases of the trial, so there is phase one phase ii phase two, and phase 3. what we have done is that we have been able to combine phase one and phase two or phase two and phase 3. this helps accelerate the process. even more importantly, we have
had huge investments in manufacturing that allow for the manufacturing capacity to be built up before the phase three trials, which demonstrate the efficacy of the vaccine before those phase 3 trials are completed. and then thirdly come in these phase 3 trials, we are looking to compare how many people get covid and those who get the vaccine, and how many get covid who don't get the study vaccine. in a pandemic, in a lot of cases this can happen much more quickly than outside a pandemic. so this whole process of vaccine development can be accelerated and really be done safely as well. process, whichat you laid out so clearly, how much do you worry about refrigeration? who would actually get the vaccine first? william: so there are a couple of issues around deciding who will get the vaccine first and
how you actually get the vaccine to them. and we know that we are going to have a limited supply of vaccine early on, perhaps even for the first year after a vaccine is licensed. so there have been a number of -- through which people have thought who should get the vaccine first, and generally it is what you might expect. it is people who are highest risk such as frontline health care workers, and people who are higher risk for severe disease, hospitalization, and death, such as the older adults, and people with comorbidities. other diseases that make them at risk for more severe disease. doctor, for those of us who are not virologists and have no clue, can you explain to us in simple terms the difference between monochrome on antibodies and vaccines, and what is most promising? william: it is very important
for people to understand the difference between the two. with a vaccine, what we are doing is exposing our body, our immune system the parts of the virus. so that our body, our immune system develops the antibodies and other cells that help fight bad virus -- fight that virus and prevent the spread within our body, prevent disease. with monoclonal antibodies, such as the regeneron project or the eli lilly product -- president trump received the general run -- the regeneron product -- those are antibodies that are given directly, so they don't last as long. they are only going to last a short time, but if you give it at the right time, particularly early in the infection, those monoclonal antibodies can help fight that virus and clear that virus. but those trials are still
ongoing. we don't have an improved monoclonal antibody yet, neither do we have an approved vaccine. so we are still learning how both of these types of products were best at fighting the virus. francine: thank you so much for joining us, dr. william moss at johns hopkins. you can be sure to check out the bloomberg terminal for the latest on covid-19. you can tune in every day for exclusive conversations with johns hopkins experts for an inside look at how the pandemic is evolving. coming up next, tom keene and lisa abramovitz will talk european yields in u.s. policy. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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♪ >> we are now fully in this reflationary reopening stage of the economy. >> half the economy is going to have come back. the other half can't back. >> we've never had these trajectories. both monetary of and fiscal policy is that the money isn't getting to the right people. >> it all comes back to the fed. the fed is very concerned about the outlook. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are -1%. bonds are bid this thursday morning. it is risk off. tom: we are going to go to gabriela santos in a bit to talk about the reframe of investment. the news flow t
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