steel what you need to know from europe? wales will go into a tough two-week lockdown on friday. paris, london, vienna all in forcing the restrictions. enact ais looking to near total lockdown. the pound is trading higher, brexit talks continuing. bloomberg reported that the u.k. is prepared to water down a boris johnson's internal market but london warns that it won't carry on talks after year-end. and the euro back up and running. technical problems causing a trading problem for most of the morning here in europe. let's check the markets and show you the ones that were open for the full day to give you an idea of what has been going on for the session.

stoxx 600 now down just a touch. that rose quite nicely. the s&p down a similar amount. the cable rate is up by 6/10 of 1%. again, we faded that little move. are trying to make sense of what is going on and i think it has pretty much given up as i think many people have, as well. as you can see, we're seeing a spreadbit of a crisis between bonds and treasuries, continuing to widen out. we are not at levels that we saw before the crisis but nevertheless, we hire again. just to show you the impact of the outage that we saw in paris a little bit earlier on, as you can see, the bulk of the morning we didn't see any trading on many of the major markets here in europe. that, we traded down toward session lows. alix: the next etf trading is

going to resume at 5:15 p.m., minutes from now. a little bit of action into the close over in europe. jpmorgan asset manager in global market strategist was the front and center yesterday and over the weekend. double-dip recession in europe, is that your call? >> that is the case for now. what we're seeing clearly is that the progress for the q4 growth outlooks are becoming more exaggerated as we move into the winter, that so far, the restrictions we are seeing for most governments across europe are primarily about trying to limit social interaction. much less about trying to limit economic activity. clearly i think there is a risk of momentum fading at this point, but it is understandable that markets are not overly pumped about this so far. we have not seen too much of a reaction i think in part because of that limitation to the restrictions and also because

investors know that at the same time as we have downside risks, there are clearly upsides as well in potentially the shape of some form of news on a medical solution. perhaps understandable at the moment that european markets are really struggling to find direction between the push and pull of that optimism and pessimism. according to your friends over at ubs, they say the correlation between european stocks and a biden win is probably the highest. .e. if biden wins, there is a strong case to buy europe. the agree? >> i can see that i biden win would certainly favor more regions around the world. for me, it is more clear-cut are emerging asia in that type of scenario because particularly on foreign policy, we would see a much more multilateral approach from a biden administration and at the same time, you have some strong tail winds from the group already in emerging asia. yes, was markets such as china

have already done much better in europe so far this year but i think that is being driven by strong fundamentals. those markets aren't really getting ahead of the economic theme which is building up. win,e scenario of a biden i can see why it would probably favor cyclical markets but emerging asia be my top pick in that scenario. alix: here's another scenario, specifically european companies are looking at the mother of all profit turnarounds, things like below inventory, low energy cost, wholesale prices, irrespective of what we're seeing with the u.s. elections. is there a narrative in their that is true? >> i think the direction of travel is certainly better but i don't think this earnings season is the one where you're going to see the mother of all turnaround. if you look at the numbers that we are assessing for q3, you are still looking down your year versus the numbers in q2 and really the bar is pretty low for

companies to be as we run into european earnings season, so that is still going to be on retraction across every vector in my view. yes, i think there is potential for earnings to pick up as we move later in the year, provided that we avoid the double-dip that he started section with, what q3, probably a very low bar rather than truly great numbers in absolute terms. europe has been a horribly tight trading range since kind of the middle of the year. what is going to get them out of that? >> i think the factors that would drive a rotation into more cyclical markets are clear for everyone to see. there's the talk of more fiscal stimulus in the u.s. leading to higher bond yields across the globe, potentially yield curves as well. there is the talk around in medical solution leading to a

much stronger growth outlook supporting commodities as well. for example, seeing that more cyclical tilt. and then we have the resumption for european producers from the emerging markets. so if you lineup those three pillars, i think you can see how you can get there in q4. but timing that is incredibly difficult. you are looking at unusually high number of very binary events that we have to deal with in the next few months. i think it's understandable that so far, all we really seen in terms of that value is that it can last a few days, perhaps a week at most, but until you get all of those factors lining up, markets are more value-tilted such as europe are struggling to outperform on a sustaining basis. alix: which region do you think has the most fiscal ability and toolbox mark you have officials coming out increasingly sounding more or less negative in regards to urging the e.u. to make that

recovery fund permanent saying it will just add to the european toolbox. which one is better off? the recovery fund i do think is very important, particularly from the perspective of international investors because we have to remember it was only a few months ago that there was talk around the pressures from covid, bringing back the stories about european breakup risks and what the recovery fund does is just absolutely take those off the table. the steps taken for physical integration are really important in taking out some of that risk premium which has been embedded for several years. not come up for me, is the recovery fund. it is not so much to drive a really strong bounce back in growth. we have seen that there are some headwinds to getting the finer details of that through the various european bodies.

the instant turnaround for europe, it is about removing that more structural risk that i think too many investors, frankly, perhaps thinking about earlier in the year when there was all this talk around pressures on the periphery and italy and spain and greece. fund can close those issues hopefully once and for good. guy: not a done deal. what happens if it doesn't get done? >> if it doesn't get done, then i think we get some form of compromise and that is going to change your growth outlook for europe but still, the fact that you have the core european nations of germany, france, italy and spain pulling in the same direction, it is just such a different scenario to what we based coming out of the financial crisis. it was only a couple of years after that when we had the sovereign crisis because people simply thought the levels of spending were not going to be sustainable. it is a very different picture this time around. this isn't about a booming

european growth environment. as you highlight, there are some headwinds to how quickly this can get done, but reflected most in markets such as peripheral spreads, i do think there is a very clear difference this time around. guy: we're going to leave you there, thanks for your time, we really appreciate it. we greatly appreciate it. we are going to have a conversation looking at what is happening here in europe and in particular, the u.k., as brexit talks continue. we are to talk to a professor of economics and public policy coming up. some breaking news out of the president, alix? alix: trump saying he wouldn't have said he would win two or three weeks ago, that implies that maybe he doesn't think he is going to win now. that is the only headline that we do have. lots of conversation now about the shy trump voter, the hidden trump voter, and polls looking more like 2016 and trump getting momentum just like he did in those last two weeks. this is bloomberg.

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guy: i'm guy johnson, this is the european close on bloomberg markets. it has been a day of mixed signals with the ongoing brexit talks. michael dell in parliament a few minutes ago that the door is not close on negotiations, but he also says with such talks they would be meaningless and that the u.k. is prepared for an australian style no deal. joining us now from brussels, bloombergs maria. what did we know over the weekend? maria: it is not just the weekend but the past 30 minutes were we actually seen a breakthrough in the form of a tweet by the leader of the

negotiation for the you and he now says the you is ready to intensify talks. referencethis is the that the u.k. wanted to see and they did not get that on friday. he is also saying more specifically he is overly talking about legal tax. really putting things on paper, this is what the u.k. wanted to see to continue those talks, the mood has really changed over the past 30 minutes. this is probably something that the u.k. can work with and it is a real breakthrough. over the past few hours it was unclear whether the talks would continue or not. tweetd've guessed this was not to trigger a new round of talks. ok, we are going to watch that very, very closely. thank you very much, indeed. let's talk more about the brexit standoff. professor of economics and public policy joining us now. jonathan, to the u.k. government have to compromise here?

i'm wondering what the implications the british economy would be of a severe covid locked down and a hard brexit at the same time. do something have to get? i'm not sure the british economy could cope with both at the same moment. >> remember, the british economy is going to get a hard brexit, may. the choice is between a hard that removes deal but puts into place customs procedures, border patrols, lots and lots of new areas to trade, exiting the single market. all that is going to happen under even if there is a deal. thatdeal just intensifies and perhaps in my view actually probably is more damaging politically that economically. the main economic impact of a hard brexit concerning deal or

no deal, the u.k. economy is going to have to cope with that at the same time as hopefully we are seeing a recovery from covid. understandou help me the lack of market reaction in this? do individuals think it doesn't matter, it is not going to happen? is it a lack of trust in boris johnson? i really struggle to understand how they are reading something like this which on the surface can be very damaging. well, i actually have some sympathy here. i'm not sure that much has changed in the last few months, frankly. it has been clear for several months what a possible deal would look like, what the compromise is an concessions on required, that were what the e.u. is effectively offering, and it has also been clear for some time that boris johnson is not made up his mind on whether he feels that the

deal is one that he wants to take for various reasons. that is three months ago. it is still true today, the u.k. government, and despite all the that is stilly, the case, right? the nature of the deal is an offer. the nature of the compromise is that both sides have been very clear for several months and talks have been clear that boris johnson has not made up his mind which way he wants to go. member, he has history here. remember the famous two articles on the brexit referendum being called. in that sense, it's not unreasonable for markets to shrug their shoulders and say nothing has changed, at some point with its of new information, but actually most of what is happening at the moment is noise. jonathan, new u.k. virus

cases rising by 8804 from 16,982 the day before, how are these cap galatians interacting -- top galatians interacting, -- calculations interacting how you think? >> most you countries have the same -- mostly you countries -- most e.u. countries have the same applications for their economies. ever, but politics and economics go in different directions. the economics means that it would be even more beneficial for the u.k. and to a lesser extent but in the same direction, for the e.u. to make a deal, but it has always been rational from an economic point of view for there to be a deal. it is not the economics which is holding of a deal, it is the politics on both sides.

and the view of some politicians here and some politicians across the channel that a suboptimal outcome economically, that is to say, no deal, is preferable if you can blame it on the other side, rather than a deal which, while preferable economically, still has some economic downsides in which if you sign up to it, you have to deal with the constituency. the choice for boris johnson is a new deal which will be very damaging economically but which he can blame on the europeans, be adeal, which will still very significant economic downside to the u.k., which he will have to pretend to the british public is the best deal ever. alix: you have to love it, we have the same thing in the u.s. at least the something the u.s. election, there is a day it will happen. when i'm my going to know if there actually is a hard brexit? when is the day?

i don't understand the clarity that. >> well, the deadline deadline is january 1, but it seems pretty likely that during the rest of october and be hats -- perhaps the beginning of november, things will have to become clear. i do come back to what i said earlier which is a hard brexit is baked in. a deal is a hard brexit. a no deal brexit is just a disruptive and politically very damaging outcome on top of that. can i ask you a broader question about what is happening with coded -- covid, is it better at this point to have regional lockdowns and the confusion that comes with them and the contention that comes with them, or a national lockdown which clarifies everything? from an economic point of view, is uncertainty kind of more desirable, or is certainty but a hard lockdown actually the better way to go? >> it's very difficult to judge.

we need some certainty and we need to set out a clear path to suppress the virus in the public health infrastructure that deals with it and make sure that we don't go through this. damagingusing, very cycle that goes on and comes back. in my mind, the real priority, it is a huge missed opportunity from the summer when cases were left to get a proper public health infrastructure in place. a test and traced system that actually works in containing outbreaks of the virus, and the government threw it away to no great effect. that was a tragedy. we need to get back on that course. i think what you suggest of having a national policy and using that to get the public health infrastructure in place,

keep the forest down and once you have got it down, that is the best way forward. that is easier said than done. alix: i feel like that is reaching for the moon on that one, here in the u.s. it is the same kind of situation. we really appreciate that. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now.

it is the largest deal in the shell industry since the collapse in energy demand earlier this year, $9.7 billion in stocks. the takeover will create a heavyweight driller in america's most prolific oil field in west texas and new mexico. wall street is plowing more money into the single-family rental industry. they have agreed to buy a front yard residential and $2.4 billion deal that will create the second largest single-family landlord in the u.s. yard premium over front closing price on friday. another sign of how the pandemic has affected the economy. vacancies in london finance industry slumped 54% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, according to recruitment, and the commit. thank you very much.

i don't think this will come as a frightened anybody around the city of london, there are very few people here. , not only the covid story to factor in, you have got the economic crisis that goes with it. and then you have got brexit as well. financial firms wanting to employ people in the british capital. alix: google is actually in talks to buy london office complex for as much as -- finances may be falling. guy: as apple is taking a huge in the project that is being developed down by the river, there is money being spent. morgan stanley also looking for a headquarters as well. there was a story talking about

tiptoeing back into bringing people back into the office, there are some sort of early signs of life of the city coming nevertheless,ut there are still some substantial headwinds in the form of covid outbreaks. kind of play it cool and see what happens? alix: and do you want to pay them juicy bonuses? relationshipthat may have been broken, that seems to be the recent evidence. we are going to take a look at where european markets are but first, some other markets that are on the platform suspended for a significant part of the morning. we will talk about that all next. this is bloomberg. so you're a small business,

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and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. guy: 30 seconds to go until the end of the regular trading this monday. we got higher the first thing this morning for european

equities. throughout one direction and then plateauing into the close. not a lot of sense of direction of the upward nature being generated today. the headlines on the virus front are not looking particularly clever. about the individual markets around europe and show you the difference between them. we have to deal with the pretty good outage this morning but the ftse 100 is down half a percent, trading below the 59 level and the dax down as well. , tradinghe close positively and you wonder whether that ended up having an effect. other markets were already significantly lower. the cac is up.

pound today is fading below 130. today we are up to 18,000, the case count in the u.k. on the coronavirus. a similar story elsewhere as well. we will talk great deal about this in europe. that is not factored into the currency market. today was a down day for the dollar. were significant. we continue to see the spread widening across europe. we are not back to the levels we were for the bond. you have seen a significant increase in between the spread

bund.n treasuries and the phillips is up by 4.2%. some people said the outlook was not that strong but the numbers today are positive. that seems to be the sense of most people today. astrazeneca is down a little bit today. we saw talk over the weekend in the british paper suggesting the maybe you would see oxford vaccine starting to be sent out to the general public around christmas. this is the vaccine trial that is still not being restarted in the united states. a huge restructuring, they will be getting rid of some of the underperforming lines that aren't working and focusing on those that are. the market is liking that story. alix: it's a different

conglomerate world. virus cases are rising so earlier today, the wheels government announced a two week lockdown and northern ireland also ordered schools to close for the next two weeks but most businesses are facing tough restrictions and ireland could be headed for a six week lockdown. kate nichols is joining us now. hospitalitythe u.k. industry. really good to get your perspective on this. terms ofragmented in country by country and region by region and how things are shut down. does the hospitality industry like that or do they want a like it lockdown? commonality of approach would help. it's more for the consumers because the u.k. market, the consumers function as a whole. it gives you more confidence if

you don't have travel restrictions across the nations of the u.k. and it makes it incredibly challenging. andmajority of hospitality businesses are located in their own area and doesn't tend to affect them as much but for any of our national chains, this is becoming a major headache, keeping track of what needs to happen with can clients -- with compliance. if the message for consumers about what they can do and what type of activity should they be involved in. that's shaping just shaving off more and more revenue from these businesses trying to stay afloat. guy: it is a real struggle on a day-to-day basis to understand what you are allowed to do. government need to do to provide clarity? for think we need some time

the dust to settle and the challenge over the last month is on a daily or weekly basis, you had new rules and regulations with new changes that have been introduced. we haven't had time to let anything take effect and see what's managing to have an impact on the business. there is no clarity about how restrictions are. that's what we are urgently asking the government to do, harmonize as much is possible across the four nations and have a clear message to customers about it being safe and hospitality is one of the safest places you can go and socialize and it's an activity that can be undertaken without any fear or risk. thataking sure we have route map out of the restrictions of these businesses can start trading again. while we are in the mist of these restrictions, the ports to intect the 3.2 million jobs hospitality and protect the businesses. alix: what will the businesses

do in the winter regardless of lockdown, it seems the bar for indoor dining of any kind will be very high. the companieswhat you're talking to are doing. how are they going to handle cold weather? >> they are looking at a range of issues. talking with their sister trade organizations in northern europe to find out what they do about eating and drinking out. in sweden and denmark, it's common to eat and drink outside. in heaters is not enough to offset the severe restrictions you have on doors -- indoors. we are going to need some continued support from the government to subsidize some economic trading. we are just hoping we have a reasonably good autumn to give a boost in income with their full

holidays coming up in the next week. that would help to maintain some of the businesses through this difficult trading time and we crucially need government subsidies to continue. it runs out currently on the first of november. guy: when does the government need to make a decision that some of these jobs are not coming back and figuring out a way to help those that are affected to retrain? is it too early now? when do you make that call? >> personally, i think it's too early for our sector. there will be sectors that are going through structural changes and decline. i don't think travel and retail will come out of this in the same form and there are issues there but for hospitality, it's thesethat the only reason jobs are not viable is because of the restrictions. we prove that when the restrictions are removed in july or august when hospitality came back online, as it were, we

prove degenerates economic growth and generates jobs quickly. broughtreopen, we 200,000 people back into work straight away and generated most of the economic recovery during august and most of that was driven by hospitality. be having we might some technical difficulties there. nichols, u.k. hospitality. when you take a look at hospitality, how much of that will be sustained versus a pent-up demand? to people going to continue be 100% on board on when we reopen? kate nichols is back with us. you get a feel for how much people came back and how quickly? made wholes weren't in august? they weren't made whole. over july and august, we went

from about 40% of venues up to 80% open and trading. at the end of august, they had recovered and they were at a breakeven point. they weren't making a profit but they would have been sustainable for that long at in the restrictions they were under were mainly to do with capacity. sidewayst been knocked by a second wave of infections coming through in mid-september, those businesses would have continued to rebuild and we would have been in a position to recover fully from the start of next year. as soon as demand returns on the restrictions are lifted, you will see the increase and we seen the demand slowly turn off over the course of the last month as the restrictions get tighter. reopen, that should return and hospitality is the quickest generator of jobs. if a customer comes in one day, we need to create a job the next day to serve them. we are going to be critical to

the economic recovery in the u.k.. the prime minister is warning businesses that time is running out to prepare for brexit. how prepared is the hospitality sector? we are as prepared as we can be given the focus we've got on survival at the moment. it is theirexit, food supply chain that is critical. we are reliant on the people who import and export on our behalf to be able to make sure they are ready. i think business readiness for brexit in our sector is about 70%, more needs to be done but we need to know the details of the deal, what restrictions are in place before we can make plans. we need to have urgent clarification from the government on the nature of buying food in the new year. guy: we appreciate your time and your patience, thank you for sticking with us.

let's check with european stocks. withare a tick lower negative numbers across the board. we will have more at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg markets, coming up, kenneth benson at 12 p.m. in new york and 5 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ > let's check in on first word news. the supreme court has agreed to hear an appeal involving the border wall with new mexico.

-- with mexico. they were blocking the president from using pentagon funds. the $2.5 billion was originally appropriated for other purposes. deadlineosi has set a if president trump wants a pre-election stimulus plan. she says they have -- there has to be more progress with the white house on a deal by tomorrow. the president says he's willing to go higher than $1.8 trillion. senate republicans may not go along with something that large. the number of coronavirus cases around the world has now hit 40 million. infections have been picking up in europe and the u.s. midwest and it took six months to reach the first 10 million and the last were added in just 40 days. onbal news, 24 hours a day, air, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed.

members are holding a virtual meeting and we are waiting on a news conference and will bring that to you as soon as we get it step the saudi arabia and oil minister said they will do what's necessary to balance the market. head of policy research joins us now from bnp paribas. the information they are getting is fairly mixed on the economic front, do they just sit tight at this stage? >> i was thinking this morning about that famous quote trip -- attributed to keene's saying when the facts change, i change my mind. perhaps at this particular committee meeting, the emphasis of saudi arabia has placed on being proactive in addressing market developments early is something to pay attention to.

final communication but there are a number of developments in the market that can lead to opec may be modifying its supply policy. alix: give me the bearish on the bullish because some say the physical market is tightening. it may not be as bad as the stock market is telling us. >> on the bullish side, that's true. we have seen different levels of crude in china. we have seen stores around the world come down substantially in the first weeks of october. that means a lot of support in terms of the structure of the futures curve. the contango is relatively narrow. on the bearish side, you have to pay attention to libya which is reinstating more and more supply. that's why was shuttered blockade imposed on its oil terminals. if libya were to restore its will output back to this prepaid level of one .2 million barrels per day, suddenly, the barrel

arithmetic will change. when the facts change, opec may have to change its policy which is currently looking to taper the amount of voluntary cuts it is affecting 7.7 million barrels per day guy: down. if opec brings any barrels back, does that undermine the credibility of the saudi argument that it will do whatever it takes? arabia has done a great job in steering the producer group along with its russian cohorts. i think the commitment is there but it's a question of whether or not what was originally planned in terms of how they manage their supply is still viable. there is a lot of uncertainty around the recovery of oil and as covid cases rise especially in europe and the u.s. limiting mobility, there is a return of

libya possibly on the market and therefore the barrel arithmetic that will allow them to taper these voluntary supply cuts may have to be restudied. committeeat this meeting but at the next one, they need some guidance in respect to that. opec meets officially at a ministerial level the first of december and that's when policy is made. alix: i hate asking this question but they don't target a price but what price does opec really want or need? >> that's a perennial question. many people tend to approach the breakeven the fiscal perspective, what price of oil do they need to balance the books in terms of their budget? it's really never been the case.

opec wants to maximize revenue but at the same time, sort of limit the incentive for a return of the competition. that is u.s. shale oil. the dallas fed put out this great question of what level wta is required for companies to start drilling significantly. at $50-$55,oking that's what they got from the majority of their respondents. many put us closer to 60 and that's probably a decent price. what is the fundamental of the physical oil market? what is the take away the oil market? >> from a general perspective if you look at u.s. shale oil in general and you seen various waves of the industry from 2010, that first wave of development

and the fallback and i think a number of people are looking for the shale sector in the u.s. oil sector in general to have great or consolidation. oil majors are taking a greater interest in shale. as a result, i think that is something that most people in the longer are expecting to see in terms of the industry, consolidation. modelwhat is your team when it comes to a biden presidency? not only in terms of what u.s. companies will be doing but in terms of how the u.s. will deal with iran and how their is room for more barrels to come online? >> that's an interesting question. mr. biden has indicated he would and to join the jcpoa again that he would stand firm on preventing iran

from getting a nuclear weapon. inasmuch as the iranian leadership is not shut the door on the west, they may be willing to talk to a biden administration. they return of iranian barrels on the market will not be easy because of mr. biden were to be elected, a couple of months later, you have presidential elections in iran as well so there could be a change of leadership and negotiations will be tough. they return of iranian barrels onto the market even with a biden administration is not something we envisage before the end of next year. alix: good to catch up with you, thank you so much. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> time for the bloomberg business flash. cvs will hire about 15,000 people to help with flu season and coronavirus testing. they could also be used to

administer covid-19 vaccines once they are available. of the new hires would be pharmacy technicians. american airlines plans to debut the boeing 737 max at the end of the year. it will be americans first flight with the max since the plane was grounded for safety 2019.s back in march, the airline will find the plane on new york to miami roots on december 29-january 4 which is tentative. they have an approved the 737 to resume flying yet stop we are one step closer to what could be the world's largest ipo. has one a green light from chinese regulators. they will list shares in shanghai at the same time and they could raise 35 billion dollars from that listing. that's the latest flash. alix: it's a busy week ahead. you've got tech earnings and

stimulus and you have politics. after the bell today, stimulus happening, the 48 hour deadline happening tuesday but it's also the debate thursday that will be interesting. conditionse debate discussing rule changes so there will be more drama around that. there is him off a lot of fed speak going on. we will see if we reach clarity. they say the economy won't fully recover till the virus is behind us. great liftoff will be guided by the virus and not the calendar. untill be near zero on interest is near zero. aic you thought would have to be north of 2% for a little while before we see rates going up stuff alix: you wonder if they

will tweak that. finally, the jobless claims we get every week but it's important to see that day to day. we still don't have stimulus. no, there is a deadline but i don't know what that means. alix: we will wrap it up on that note and seven over -- and send it over to david westin. bloomberg radio will have an interview coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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david of weston, welcome to balance of power. david: let's start with a check on the markets. let's turn to abigail doolittle. pretty choppy this morning on this monday. earlier, you had stocks higher in the s&p 500 was up about half a percent and now down about a percent so investors are searching for a direction. we see the bears winning a little bit after a multiweek winning streak for the major averages in the u.s.. nothing too decisive but where we have extra strength, dow transplants are being driven by the airlines and one way to think they won't run away with it, we have bond trading lower. a one millionntly on daily