tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg October 20, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
narrow their differences. forecasters don't see a deal before the november 3 election. we'll be speaking to the speaker of the house today. ireland imposes some of the most draconian restrictions in europe. in the united states cases are soaring in battleground states. we are just two weeks ahead of the election. very warm welcome to you. we just had numbers out from u.b.s. about 15 minutes ago. manus cranny is interviewing ergio armanti. manus will be back me with a preview. the interview will be airing on bloomberg television at 7:00 a.m. london time, 8:00 a.m. if you're across the continent. u.b.s. income beat estimates. we're underway with the
earnings season. u.b.s. kicking off with the major banks. i want to show you the close yesterday in the banking sector in europe. they close up more than 6. we is that you read of course into u.b.s. the stoxx 600 bank closed spoup 9%. a strong start in europe for the financials. let's take a look at what we're pricing in this morning when it cops to markets globally. we had a down day across wall street. s&p futures up .3%. a little bit weaker on the euro stoxx 50. euro down this morning. rent crude above $42 a barrel. comes to when it brent. i want to get back to banking again. u.b.s. posting a better than expected third quarter profit.
setting aside $1.5 billion for share buy backs. the world's largest bank. ncreased market volatility and profit based on income. the interview with sergio ermotti will be aired at 7:00 a.m. london time. we'll get his take and sentiment from outgoing c.e.o. sergio ermotti. let's get what dani burger has to say. friday barclays. next week, deutsche bank, redit suisse all report. dani, could this earnings season be the catalyst to turn
around european bank shares? we're seeing a strong start. >> it is part of the reason according to strategists is that the bar is set so low. european banks have lost more than 40% so far this year. according to barclays strategists, they say european banks are too cheap to ignore. the market at the moment is really pricing in too much of what's happening with the coronavirus cases and perhaps banks are a little bit more protected than market is saying. but the issue is if you're expecting european banks to really be the standout like we saw in the u.s., the market is too fragmented to have results like we saw. if we look at the market share that europe has versus the u.s., europe is such a smaller portion. really when it comes to all of the big segments, the u.s. in orange here rsh, it is much larger. this share that europe has
continues to sh shrink. it hasn't been european banks that have been taking the share. it is the u.s. banks. things like advisory, underwriting. all of the deal making is dominated by u.s. banks. what hope is there for european banks? one is the loan-loss picture looks more positive. strategists say that is really what we want to here. the potential is m&a here. some of the recent takeovers . all ears are glued to the earnings statements. the european market is so fragmented and this earnings season might renew those calls for more m&a. >> thanks. digging through banking results near europe. last week it was all about the u.s. results. joining us now is a chief market strategist at hsbc.
u.b.s. is looking optimistic this morning. banks have really been unloved around the world this entire year. but we're seeing a strong start to this earnings season. is this a sector investors should maybe start potentially moving some money into? >> potentially, selectively if at all. just looking at evaluations, we are not buying cheap stocks just because they are cheap. you saw in september buying something simply for that reason is not a good idea. banks at this point in time are seeing the benefit from more volatility and from the investment perspective as well. anks are more exposed.
loive loan losses are likely to increase. we are starting to become more optimistic around the upcoming cycle. that could ultimately benefit the banking sector. i think there are could be a number of investors saying we have gone through the recession. it is logical to be in financials. >> when it comes to selection, i wonder if the dividends matter to you. julius said yesterday they are going the restart their dividends november 6. u.b.s. said the 2019 dividend will come the end of november. this come a.f.c. the defacto been a we had on dividends -- ban we had on dividends due to the pandemic. >> dividend stocks have always been an interesting idea for private clients.
something that private clients are very interested in, especially in the low yield environment. looking for all of the ways to get some more income. we would prefer to be in the credit market and the yields there and also to be invested and not be sitting on a lot of cash. that can be a drag on income. dividend stocks have been some of the worst performers over the last year. amongst all of the -- so we have been extremely selective there end stocks and are some the expectations of dividends by the markets have dropped a lot. there is any significant reason to expect a pickup there. >> this quarter is going to be
the mother of all profit turnarounds as we head into earnings season this quarter if europe. stock up 20% from the depths to have march lows. do you think that earnings recovery is already priced in o the european equity markets? >> obviously -- in a bad situation, people were fearing we were going to have a -- scenario. like 2008. more evaluations than earnings. with reduction. it is not only monetary policy but fiscal policy as well. that is change that we're seeing in europe. the earnings start to increase. we see positive positions. we see companies getting more positive guidance. i think they are still relatively low. we have more optimistic around
the u.s. than china. you see a manufacturing recovery around the world. to become positive from the european consumer is quite premature. you have more reason to be positive in the u.s. as a hinese consumer. >> we're going to talk about the u.s. next. william sells stays with us this morning. coming up, searching for stimulus as we count down to the elections. we don't have a deal for the american public. more on that next. this is bloomberg.
president trump: don't forget dr. fauci when he said no, no, don't close it to china. i said you're a wonderful man, and he is a nice man. you're a wonderful man. i'm closing it. i saved thousands of lives he said that months later. don't put masks. now he says put on masks. i like hem. he just happens to have var bad arm. ann marie: talking about dr. nthony fauch -- fauci. president trump and joe biden will be muted for parts of their final debate on thursday. derek, let's start with the supreme court decision.
how significant is this? >> hey, you know, it is kind of significant here. what you're talking about is the difference between when mail-in ballots can be received and counted. a lot of states the rule had been you had to get your ballot in by election day but states more and more have been going to the idea no, you just have to drop it in the mail by election day. when it gets there, it gets there. this is going to allow for a couple more mail-in ballots to be able to come in. why that is significant, pennsylvania is a swing state. joe bide season winning there in the polls by about four points. it is a state trump feels like he has to win. the mail-in ballots are skewing democratic. this would allow a couple more of the time that has been scuge democratic to come in. there still may be further challenges on this and keep in
mind amy coney barrett could be the sixth republican vote on the supreme court. the case that you mentioned was decided only 4-4. she could break a tie if this came up for a challenge after the election. ann marie: the debate thursday, there are going to be change a.f.c. the last one which was chaotic to put it simply. what are the changes? >> the main change is there is going to be a mute button which is to say after somebody gets asked a question in their two minutes of time they have to start answering initially, the other candidate's microphone is going to be muted. is that going to get rid of all the sound? probe not. they are going to be in the same room and microphones can pick things up. the idea is to bring a little bit of structure. this is unprecedented to give people a mute button in a presidential debate.
there are a fair number of people who don't support this move. donald trump said to reporters on air force one, one of ours was with him. he said i don't like this change but i'm going to go ahead and do the debeat anyway. we expect him to show up even though he hates this change. ann marie: certainly seems like he does hate the change. i think our producers would enjoy a mute button at times for manus and myself. the virus is raging across the united states. we don't have a stimulus deal that so many americans need right now. how close are we to one? nancy pelosi had a self-imposed deadline of today. will they deliver? >> i think you're going to see a distinction in this deadline between maybe a firm agreement and a conceptual agreement. if people feel like they are really, really close, i'm not
sure this artificial deadline becomes a hard and fast deadline. it could slip into the late hours of early wednesday or something like that. i don't know. he difficulty is that they are not any closer now than they were this time yesterday. there was some noise they might be good and maybe not. the markets bounce up and down on this sort of thing. at one point there is going to be that go, no go. and once you gure do, you have to get republicans in the senate onboard. we talked about this before. trump is very confident if he gets a deal done that all the republicans are going to line up but we heard from the senior senate republican who is questioning whether or not
there were going to be votes there on the republican side to make something happen. it is very much a wide ball. even if they get a deal, it does not mean something is still going to happen ann marie: it does not add up what mcconnell views as an appropriate stimulus deal to how close trunch is willing to go to meet pelosi. later today we will speak with house speaker nancy pelosi. first question has to be whether or not she will get this deal done on her own self-imposed deadline of today. william sells still with us. you talk about how stimulus -- how important stimulus is for the consumer . potentially that would be a boost to consumer stocks. when is the entry point when dwonalt know when we'll get this deal out of d.c.? >> we can't speculate on exen
exactly we're going to get it, before or after the election. it is important but it is not everything just like the elections are important but not everything. if you look at the data, you continue to see improvements in the coming data in the u.s. are onomic -- the data better than what economists are expecting. interestingly as i mentioned this, manufacturing and you're starting to see improvement on the consumer side as well. during the lockdown over the last number of months, consumers, they now seem to be starting to spend them. automotive sales are up quite a bit and also the o.r. area of improvement we're seeing in the housing market probably relates to the low interest rate environment. two areas i think are doing quite well. obviously a boost from the
fiscal side would help. the improvement in the labor arket that we're seeing. service companies and manufacturing companies want to hire more. all of that is important for the consumer. i think there is some tail wind there. ann marie: the p.m.i.'s we're set to get on friday are going to be very important in this narrative. christine lagarde talked about it the other day. services that make up so much of the european economy is what the worry is. if you were going to buy a car in march and didn't buy it, you can buy it in october or november. if you were going to take a veaks in march or april, you're not going to take that vacation in october or november. are you not worried about the services side of the u.s. economy that many consumers spend on? >> europe is in a different situation than the u.s. therefore the manufacturing
area in europe is the one that -- and one of the reasons we prefer germany other areas of the european economy. think the industrials in the u.s. are better than the services and consumer side. you're going to have more headline risk. at the same time, obviously, people want to diversify. one of the things we have been talking a lot to about to investors is people have technology stocks because they see the long-term growth. how they diversify. so far we have done that to industrials. we're starting to look at the consume er as well. ann marie: thank you for joining us. market strategist at hsbc private banking. let's get a roundup of other news this morning.
>> good morning, the u.k. is holding out the concessions from the e.u. before restarting brexit talks. they are willing to intensify talks and begin work on the legal text of an accord. that wasn't enough for prime minister boris johnson. he says a trade deal looks unlikely. ireland's government has impose some of the most sweeping pandemic restrictions in europe. nonessential stores, bars and restaurants will close their doors for at least six weeks. travel will be further restricted with people told to stay within five clom -- kilometers of their homes. india has seen a peak. they think the nation may be eable to contain the world's second largest outbreak by february. the economy contracted nearly 24%. global news 24 hours a day, on airpowered by more than 2700
of a democratic sweep. both the white house and congress in the elections. what are investors looking at ahead of the u.s. election today? it is another day. at some point these election calls i guess will stop on november 4. >> we'll talk a lot about what is going to happen with a blue sweep, equities and rates. this could be a potentially $50 million payday if this trade is correct. the fed is not thinking about raising rates for at least a year or so. but this is a bet that basically the options on your dollar futures. $50 million bet paying out million dollars. goldman sachs recommending a two-year, five-year pay of
options which pays off if rates rise. markets are betting this is not going to happen for another 3 1/2 to 4 years. ann marie: what are the expectations in the final two weeks to have the u.s. election campaign? a lot can move in the emerging markets regarding this u.s. presidential election. >> there is a lot happening as well. in the like of turkey, hungary and russia with interest rate decision. the market rally could be halted for the next couple of weeks. fidelity expecting liquidity to be quite thin. it could be a playing game or a waiting game in merging markets as we have seen the run up quite strongly. it could lead to a weakened dollar and if we see a contested election, that could unravel. fidelity saying expect things to be a little bit slow for the next couple of weeks. ann marie: thank you so much for that morning call.
manus: good morning from dubai. i'm manus cranny. annmarie hordern at london hq. these are your top stories. ubs posts better than expected third-quarter profits, setting aside sure buybacks in 2021. the last set of results from the longtime ceo sergio ermotti. the hear from him in under 30 minutes. deadline day in d.c.
pushing higher after markets closed in the red. continue tonuchin narrow the bandwidth on differences. forecasters don't see a deal before the election. we hear from the house speaker. crisis measures, ireland's government imposes some of the most draconian restrictions in europe. u.s. cases are soaring in the battleground states two weeks before the election. 6:30 a.m. in london. a.m. -- it is 7:30 a.m., sergio ermotti has left something in the swag bag as he sits in the seat at the end of the week. $1.5 billion set aside for buybacks when they can do those. sending that into an escrow account and accruing $1 billion towards dividend payments in 2021.
when they can make those payments is anybody's guess. the top line on this report is something very nice left behind for the new ceo and good numbers all the way around the best in 10 years in wealth management. annmarie: he seems to be bowing out at the most opportune moment, leaving the 1.5 billion dollars for ralph hammers. i'm interested to hear what you had to say with sergio ermotti. you've had this long relationship. what i found interesting, "theng about him from financial times," he left school at 15 and wanted to be a football star and ended up being the head of a major global bank, the head of ubs and he's leaving on a very positive note, but i'm sure at some point you are going to talk about his legacy at the helm of the bank. manus: absolutely.
conversation.he i think the market will focus on the dividend story and performance in the businesses and wealth management. you can hear the conversation in just under 30 minutes' time. we will speak to the ubs ceo on his last earnings interview, just after 7:00 with matt and anna. stocks are bid because there is a narrowing of the fiscal language cap, but will they deliver? according to mike wilson at morgan stanley, the s&p 500, up .2%, 3550. if you draw a line from 1987, in 3550 -- you are all the way to the top of the resistance. it is heavens door. keep an eye on ubs. go to your tliv in terms of net income as it -- is it the by
backstory? salman,wn, uncertain. bonds, .76%. are they your haven in your risk to the blue sweep? let's talk about politics. hasspeaker of the house told house democrats that significant areas of disagreement are standing in the way of any deal on a coronavirus relief package, even as it continues to negotiate with the treasury secretary. the deadline for a deal is today. the former federal reserve chair janet yellen is adding her voice to calls for more fiscal support and aid for unemployed workers. she told bloomberg what needs to be done to get the u.s. economy back on track. >> i did meet with biden and briefed them about
financial sector issues, but i'm not working with the campaign. you asked me what i think we need to do to get the economy back on track. isould say what hits my list dealing more effectively with the pandemic, with the health-related issues, giving the infection -- getting the infection level under control through contact tracing, testing, isolation of people who have it. i think we need a much more effective effort than we have that, itif we have will be good not only for health, but for being able to open up the economy and we've in countries ranging from germany to korea to china, that have been successful and we need support for the economy both for monetary and fiscal
policy. monetary policy has already done a huge amount. fiscal policy response in the united states has been extremely actually, it is much larger the fiscal support them what we have -- what was done after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but the fiscal and so has now lapsed far, spending has held up. unemployed workers who got that extra $600 a week through the end of july, they used that to stay current on their bills, to support their spending. they even stashed some of it away so they've been able to get through this last couple of bills, butpay their it is running out and i think we need to do that and state and local governments also face huge
budget shortfalls. i'm working on a task force with the governor of california, who addressed the pandemic. -- theye 54-ball and face a $54 billion shortfall. >> in the meantime, steve or andld know -- steve was on said if congress passed a $2 trillion fiscal support plan, he expects the federal reserve to buy up all of that to help things along. the you think that is an advisable step? reserve asseteral purchases, they have not made clear their plans going forward and i am expecting them to offer more guidance, but their longtive is going to keep and short interest rates at low levels to support an economic
recovery. it is not their objective ever to directly try to help the federal government address its budget deficit and that would be a very dangerous kind of support to provide, but i do expect -- i think asset purchases have worked. they are holding down longer-term rates and i expect there to be ongoing purchases, but probably not geared to the federal deficit. yellene: fed chair janet speaking yesterday to lisa and tom. one thing that tom first asked her right off the bat. who was going to be filling a potential biden cabinet, whether she would join the administration and her answer was no comment, but like all the central bankers we heard from and the fed chiefs, she said it has to do with fiscal stimulus and yet, we still don't have a deal. manus: absolutely, and that
clock is ticking down. the question is, has the market priced in a skinny deal and what does that do to the dollar? lagarde,u back to kuroda, and bailey. it was a clear message. i think the clearest from kuroda in terms of the risks to the global economy, the risks to japan of double-dip. that is certainly out there. annmarie: certainly is and we will see whether or not we get that deal later today. and weimposed deadline will speak to the house speaker nancy pelosi today. with more news, laura wright. >> president trump is hitting out at the government's top infectious disease expert anthony fauci, calling him an idiot. he criticized him repeatedly yesterday claiming without explanation that if he had
followed his advice, hundreds of thousands of americans would have died. is the mostauci trusted figure on coronavirus. the supreme court has allowed a extension on mail-in ballots for pennsylvania, giving democrats a boost in the state. 4-4 after a voted republican bid to overrule. froming out concessions the eu before restoring bread to talk. michel barnier said he's willing to intensify talks and begin work on the legal text of an accord. boris johnson says a trade deal still looks unlikely. still come his office feels the talks were constructive. -- still, his office feels the talks were constructive. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: while pick it up from here. opec rising.
annmarie: 6:43 in the city of london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." of a precarious outlook as a resurgent pandemic hurts oil demand, dropping hints at a potential change in policy next month unless it changes add 2 it is set to million barrels a day from january on but traders warn, the market can't absorb that much more oil in any market. chiefg us, amrita sen, oil analyst at energy aspect.
three key principles, prevent -- prevent, predict, and proactive. and want to be proactive they want to predict and as he says, nicp it in the bud. saying 100%, we aren't going to add these barrels? amrita: i think there is still more uncertainty. just over the course of the last week, our own balances, we've seen demand pickup a lot more in asia versus the downgrade we are seeing in the west. i think given that, they will try to want as much data as possible into gear and -- year-end, because the place they can make these decisions are the opec-plus meeting. inhink he was pretty clear giving a hint, including minister novak. if required, we will delay tapering.
uncertainty,uch yes, cases are rising, but everyone has better testing capacity and even in the u.s., despite case counts rising, you are starting to see diesel demand turn higher year on year in all the trucking miles we are checking out but there are clues it will be a colder winter. more people will be at home but offices will also be open. do we need more liquid fuels? that is why they want as much information as possible. manus: that's going to play out in the spreads. themselvesna gorged at sub $40 and the data we had on the manufacturing side was good along with retail sales, even though the top line missed. will china be the bulwark that will put a floor under prices? amrita: absolutely. that's what happened over the summer. you saw how quickly we went from
-37 to $40. over the pasted months. they did the buying binge and are absorbing that but over the past week, you have seen china start buying again. some of the big independent some of the other independent refiners are out buying. i think that is the important thing over here. china is absolutely leading the way forward but india is starting to do very well, not necessarily in keeping the virus counts down, but reopening the economy and a lot of asian countries are following suit. the indian refinery numbers are quite bullish. if we could stick with prices, the market is pricing and they will act. the 2 million barrels a day is not going to see the light of day come january. so does the prince need to do one of those surprises? is there going to be a december
surprise were saudi ratchets back a bit more production? amrita: no, i don't think a surprise is in the cards. as of right now, and again, i want to caveat this. the main focus will be let's delay the taper and the conversations are going to be for how long? is it a couple of months? is it three or four months? it is very tricky for them and i don't think they can even talk about deeper cuts until they have full compliance, and even the catch-up cuts have been completed. the focus will remain on that, even next month, and only then -- if it is required, i'm sure saudi arabia has always been the leader and they will act, but as of right now, i don't think that is needed. manus: we update the information again on libya, the propensity to produce and export. those estimates get to 700 by year-end.
what do you think that will do, and not that they are the swing producer, but they are a swing factor with the rand in 2021. the bideniran on victory, and two is libya production. quantify for me. amrita: absolutely, our conversations with opec and the gcc, they are much more focused on iran and a potential biden victory and what that could mean in the second half of next year vis-a-vis libya. libya remains volatile. we still don't have a proper sharing agreement that tells me yes, libya production is going to come back and stay here. that is still a hard call. it is still going to be volatile. for now, it is folding -- holding at 500,000 barrels a day. we think that can hold for a couple of weeks unless you see an unraveling of the agreement.
it will take them about six months if not nine to get there. the biggest volume comes from iran. we second half of next year, are expecting some form of iranian production return. regardless of who is in the white house, because iran can't continue to not export. that is going to be the big game changer potentially for opec's decision. we have it in our balances and we see demand growing and therefore, stocks will be drawing but opec will focus on this very much. finances quickly, on for the likes of iraq, nigeria. the prince has done very well to get compliance somewhat in order from these cheaters. how hard will that be in 2021? we have a surge in cases and economic growth is not happening. amrita: absolutely and even right now, overall revenues might be higher for iraq because prices have stabilized, but they are barely able to paste out
arise -- salaries for workers and it is a tough situation for them and nigeria. the biggest challenge for the oil market is going to be if you rollout in two years when hopefully there is a vaccine and demand is picking up again. i don't think these countries can deliver on these lofty promises of production growth and in some ways, that will help offset the return of iran and even some stabilization in libya. manus: ok. lives, all of our social lives were economic lives depend on that vaccine coming forward. always great to get you on the show. we miss those early morning, cold, winter in vienna. be well, chief oil analyst at energy aspects. we will be back in vienna with his royal highness chasing ministers. this is a ceo we chased for nine years. a lot of quarterly results together. ubs, the end of an era at
annmarie: just over an hour away from the european markets open. i'm annmarie hordern with manus cranny. 10: 30 a.m. u.k. time, boa policymaker will deliver a speech on the u.k. economic outlook. 1:30, housing and building permits data out of the united states, both expected to pick up in september -- december as we have record low mortgage rates and that supports demand. manus: absolutely and the new
york fed president john williams is going to make the opening and closing remarks of a webinar series on culture at 2:00 p.m. later on, third-quarter earnings from netflix. what are you watching on netflix at the moment? -- we don'tbout have to publicly disclosed that. we's talk about ubs because had the results of the third quarter and it marks the start of a host of european banking majors coming to pass. we will hear from the ceo sergio ermotti. matt miller in berlin tracking the german side of the story. i'm tracking this with side -- the swiss side. in a momentnterview but the bottom line is he left something in the till for ralph hamers. a provision on dividend.
good morning. matt: and he left a lawsuit for ralph hamers to deal with, 5 billion in fines. there's a lot there for hamers to do. i think what investors will be most concerned about and you were as well was the payout, manus. the second trench of the 2019 dividend is coming, they've got $1 billion toward its suspected 2021 dividend and they will pay out 1.5 billion for vivax next year.- buybacks next they are the first and you will probably see other banks follow. the other big story is the possibility of consolidation. el weber came out and said we are too busy to think about that right now.
but all banks have other stuff to do. if internal business kept people too busy to do m&a, you wouldn't see it as much as you do. that is a difficult denial to buy, especially since his list was floated. annmarie: matt miller in berlin, he'll be taking your -- i was going to thank matt for joining us and he'll be taking us through the european market open and manus's interview with sergio ermotti. indeed. we will hear from him, some of the issues matt covered. go to the tliv. it talks about what the new loans were in the wealth side of -- wealth management side of the business. 1.5 billion in buyback provision, $1 billion in dividend provision, but as matt says, there is i suppose the head-to-head with the french. we will talk through it all.
anna: good morning, welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i him live in london alongside matt miller. matt: good morning. today the markets that flip the circuit breakers. futures and europe go to more losses as a six-week lockdown in ireland. stimulus talks in the u.s. and the start of european bank earnings give investors more .han enough to think about the cash trade is just an hour away. let's get your top headlines
from the bloomberg terminal. ubs posts third-quarter profits that the estimates and set aside $1.5 billion for shared buybacks next year. bloomberg's manus cranny spoke with the outgoing ceo, his longtime interview partner. i am very happy with those results. particularly by the site that all business units have contributed. we have the best third quarter since 2011 in wealth management that has been up 18%. but also, the idea was up across the board in markets and the investment banking parts. it was a very strong performance. the point of view has been able to grow. overall,