tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 23, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT
and joedent trump biden's bar in a more substantial debate. 15 million americans have already voted. government supports more restrictions as coronavirus cases surge. france's prime minister calls the situation "grave," as the country reports more cases in a single day. barclays gets a single boost. bloombergaley tells
headwinds remain. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am annmarie hordern, in for francine lacqua in london. fall to 46.2, the forecast was for 46.7. manufacturing pmi 54.4, forecasted 53. this,e were expecting given what happened last month, and france and london, and they were just talking to anna about this. the risk to the service sector employmentek, 75% of in the eurozone, so the services are where things will be much softer. a bit of a friday feeling on the euro stoxx index, especially for
banks and autos. we are poised for a weekly decline, the worst in a month. s&p 500 futures have been drifting between negative and positive territories the entire morning. euro-dollar 118, a little bit from euro versus the dollar. that is your market check. now let's get around the world with first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, annmarie. a second wave of coronavirus infections gains momentum. told 46 million people to stay home after 9:00 p.m. after reporting more than 40,000 new daily cases for the first time. italy, germany, and at least eight other cases also saw a record infection rate. now goldman sachs has admitted its role in the biggest foreign bribery case in u.s. enforcement history and will enter a guilty plea for the first time ever.
surgenk says it helped $1.6 billion in illicit payments in the middle east, by the catch of 1mdb development projects. they will pay 4.6 billion dollars, the largest penalty in u.s. history for the violation of the foreign corrupt practices act. negotiators in washington say they are moving closer to an agreement on stimulus, with nancy pelosi saying they are just about there. and treasuryas she secretary steven mnuchin are close to agreeing how to for schools to reopen, a key sticking point for those toxic or however, pelosi says some other demands are still being discussed. and gm says losses will probably fall for a second straight year. the third back to backdrop since the 1930's. coronavirusuding
testing and reconfiguring classrooms and dorms have now driven up costs. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. annmarie? annmarie: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now, the second presidential debate was a natural, tennessee. the tone was a lot less combative. take a listen. mr. biden: he says we are learning to live with it. we are learning to die with it. pres. trump: if he is elected, the stock market will crash -- >> ok, move onto the next question. pres. trump: there hasn't been -- there has been nobody tougher on russia. mr. biden: this resident paid 50 times the taxes in china, has a secret bank account in china, does business with china, and, in fact, is talking about me
taking money? i have not taken a single penny from any country, whatsoever. mr. biden: what about fracking pres. trump: what about fracking? mr. biden: i never said i opposed fracking. pres. trump: you said it on tape! mr. biden: show the tape. these kids came with parents. they were separated at the border to make a disincentive. mr. biden: they did -- pres. trump: they did it. we changed the policy. who built the cages, joe? annmarie: kailey leinz joins us now from new york. kaylee, this is far different from the first debate. you just heard a bear, china, covid, climate. for you, what are the highlights? kailey: one of the highlights, annmarie, was the mute button that was not even really used. president trump in particular
taking a very different tack this time around than in the first debate, where his more aggressive performance really ended up hurting him in the polls. that is not to say that the two candidates did not attack each other. president trump really coming after biden on his record throughout his political career, but specifically during the obama administration, and he also came after biden and his family for alleged payments they from foreign countries. those claims, i should mention, are not backed up by fact. biden saying 220,000 americans have died on trump's watch, and he does not deserve reelection. he also called the separation of children and their families at the border criminal. really coming back on a number of issues, one of them being energy policy, a really heating exchange when fracking was brought up. take a listen to what went down. pres. trump: what about fracking? >> let me allow vice president biden to respond. mr. biden: i never said i opposed fracking. pres. trump: you said it on tape. pres. trump: show the tape --
mr. biden: show the tape. put it on your website. the fact of the matter is, he is lying. other industries to transition to get ultimately a complete zero emissions by 2025. pres. trump: he was against fracking. he said it. i will show that to you tomorrow get "i am against fracking," until he got the nomination, went to pennsylvania. kailey: so energy policy one of the issues, annmarie, but they covered a lot of ground in this debate, as they allowed each other to speak, were not speaking over each other, that was a very different scenario than what we heard the first time around. annmarie: and twitter seemed to really love all of this, fracking, climate. one of the things we cannot forget is it was under the obama administration that the u.s. actually lifted their 40-year ban on oil exports. know about theto
dynamics. 11 days to go, about 50 million americans have already voted. does this change anything? kailey: that is the perennial question, annmarie. there are very few undecided voters in this race. going into the debate, biden was already leading by a wide margin in national polls come up about eight points according to the real clear politics average. in several battleground states like ohio, michigan, pennsylvania, he is up, albeit by a narrower margin. so president trump really needed a big win tonight, the debate being one of the last potential turnaround points in this race, and it is not clear he got that. cnn polled voters immediately after the debate commanded majority, 53%, thought biden won. trump won -- though trump won. so the consensus seems to be that biden is ahead in this debate, annmarie. kailey, thank you for
staying up all night for us here in our european audience. trading surging on gilead. this comes as the u.s. fda approved gilead sciences antiviral therapy remdesivir, making it the first of its kind to treat the coronavirus, and the stocks are jumping in go,arket trading, there you at least 7% in premarket trading for remdesivir, the first virus drug to get that fda approval. stay with "surveillance." plenty coming up this morning, including the u.k. signs a trade deal with china. the first in a major economy since brexit. we will be speaking with trade minister greg hands. anna edwards brings you that interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
annmarie: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am annmarie hordern in london. for francine lacqua. now, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, annmarie. barclays has another strong quarter. the bank's securities division rates and 23% jump in credit-rating income in the first quarter. the british bank also benefited from a pickup in mortgage demand , swinging back to profit. jes: we are ready to manage negative interest rates we would rather not target our clients with negative interest rates. but we also have to manage the integrity of the bank. i think it is important that central banks keep in their wallets the ability to use negative interest rates, but i personally believe here in the u.k. it is not likely. ofgh-ann: now, the cfo
french hotels group has told bloomberg that doing deals is not a priority and that the company is not in talks with rival intercontinental. a call reported a 6% drop in third-quarter revenue per available rooms. that follows and 88% fall during the second quarter, but accor says the words of the coronavirus crisis is now behind it. and that is your bloomberg business flash. annmarie? annmarie: leigh-ann, thank you very much. the u.k. has signed a treaty with japan -- i misspoke earlier, it is japan, not china. comes amid signs of progress on the brexit deal. johnson's government has restarted negotiations with brussels. iteris being reimposed at the start of next year. anchorerg european open" anna edwards joins us now. anna? anna: thank you, annmarie.
i am pleased to be joined by trade minister greg hands. minister hands: good morning. anna: can you give us specifics on which companies will benefit from this deal, for which company is this better than what was before, the previous, existing eu-japanese relationship? minister hands: thanks for that. we have locked in all the gains, but we have gone first the crucial area of financial services, so looking to operate in japan, find it easier to get a license. it is a good news for fintech firms, because we have removed unnecessary data luke as those asian localization rules. so you and i can work, that will affect a lot of firms in a very positive way, particularly in financial services, professional services, but gains in agriculture as well. it is a very good deal for the u.k.
trade asirst for the an independent trading countries more than 45 years. we signed the deal this morning. anna: yes, we saw the pictures. which parts will be easier to attain, which financial sector services will be celebrating this deal? minister hands: anybody looking to offer financial services in japan, and also the bank rules are bringing big benefits , and removingms those really bureaucratic and ,nnecessary data location rules and we have removed that. so that will make it a lot easier for fintech firms. anna: ok, so fintech, to keep an eye on that. u.k. companies trading with the you are going to be facing some
changes, aren't they? whether that is customs declarations, rules of origin documentations, animal health certifications. if the government going to compensate businesses for the higher cost at all? minister hands: well, look, we are focused at the moment i'm making sure businesses already. you are right, even with a trade deal with the european union -- which we are working to get -- there will be changes in january. the u.k. is leading the customs union. it is leading the market. at the moment, we are focused on making sure the businesses are ready for those changes that kick in on the first of january. that is the most important. anna: of course we are focused on the presidential election in the u.s., on a broader sense. do you think it is possible to get the u.s.-u.k. trade deal in the 11 days that remain before the election? minister hands: i think that is very unlikely, but most importantly is keeping the talks on track. we are actually talking at the moment, our fifth round of trade
talks with the u.s. is ongoing today. we have been very keen to reach out to both sides of the political divide in the u.s. so i have been at briefing governors, senators, members of congress, both the republicans and democrats, to make sure we keep that broader come across-party support, notwithstanding what might happen in two weeks' time. anna: yes, and if we do see a different result in two weeks' time, do you think the headwind for a deal will be greater? minister hands: let's wait and see. at the moment, we had talks of a deal from the current u.s. trade representative, ambassador robert lighthizer. he is a strong believer in a deal, but we get a lot of support from the democratic side as well. isoss the political spectrum approachable, but doing a trade deal between the u.k. and the u.s. will bring benefit to both markets. the u.s. is our largest bilateral trading partner. for the u.s., doing a deal with
the u.k. will be really significant. we will be the largest economy with which the u.s. has a free-trade agreement, so it is a big deal for the u.s. as well. anna: can all of these deals with other countries make up for the losses in the trading relationships that look likely between the u.k. and the eu? doddse with annalise earlier, and she suggested the labour party is still apart. minister hands: i think the labour party is
this is a massive opportunity for the u.k. to build on free trade agreement elsewhere. if we are in negotiations with the united states, australia, new zealand, and we are also looking to join tp en 2021 as well, which would be a huge opportunity for the u.k., to join that fast-growing trading group of 11 countries around the pacific. the u.k., if we join tpp, gdp will be the same as the eu's minus the u.k., so that is a big opportunity for us, and we are looking forward to moving forward in our independent trade policy. internalyou think the deal, do you think that has made other countries less likely, less enthusiastic to rush to do trade deals with the u.k.? minister hands: look, i think that is nonsense. they were in japan signing our free-trade agreement with japan, so i think the premise of the question is not correct, and of course we are hoping to get that free-trade agreement with the european union. then it will make the whole package of things that the u.k. internal markets --much, much more hopeful. anna: ok, we will keep an eye on that, of course, on that front. greg, thank you very much, u.k. trade minister greg hands, for speaking to us here at bloomberg .
annmarie? annmarie: anna, thank you so much. interesting, 11 days until the u.s. election, he will not say if he will strike a deal, no matter what, they remain when a good relationship with both sides. coming up, much heavier on policy, with 11 days to go and 50 million votes already cast, will it make any difference? this is bloomberg. ♪ e? this is bloomberg. ♪
i am annmarie hordern, in for francine lacqua, here in the city of london. the u.s. has seen record turnout so far. more than 49 million people have cast their ballot so far. the majority are registered democrats, but has been far from progress, andard our bloomberg reporter, jennifer , joins us now. jennifer: the candidates are losing time to actually make cases where the voters. the president is going to be one of those early in person voters on saturday in florida, but in terms of turnout, what we are seeing is already 35% of total votes counted from the 2016 election, with 11 days to go, and we are seeing record turnout in the battleground states, notably in georgia, which saw a100 42% increase from the same -- saw a 142% increase from the
same period in 2016. as you mentioned, there are more issues that various voters are facing in states. annmarie: what are the issues these voters are experiencing? jennifer: one of the biggest things that i think a lot of people have been noticing are these long lines. so in places like georgia, wisconsin, alaska, florida, voters have been waiting upward of five to 10 hours, and there have been several technical difficulties that voters have had to deal with. in particular in georgia, there was up 1.5-hour wait, because there were new polling devices weren't malfunctioning. ofre have also been issues allegations of voter suppression for black voters. in particular, some lawmakers were trying to enforce voter id laws, particularly affecting poor and minority cour communi'. we heard the fbi director saying this is a disinformation
campaign that are trying to suppress especially the black vote. you know biden and trump are both trying to target black men in particular, and we heard president obama making the same request we heard them both on the same night. advocates are still very confused, because, you know, there are still a lot of days left, so this ray system not over. but they wanted the picture that voters are not surprised and voters are not discouraged from getting out the vote. so hopefully we will see a better turnout. annmarie: jen, we will leave it there, jennifer zabasajja, our quick reporter in new york. u.k. regulator investigating 14 firms in six -- and six individuals in a tax scandal. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
earnings season. increase in sales held up at pent-up demand for cosmetics. analysts expected a 2.4% decline. the recovery was mainly led by consumers buying luxury skincare products and mainland china, and we spoke about the results. agon.s ceo jean-paul at thepe and the u.s. -- same time, other parts of the world, it was better. america seems to be better, so we are a progrowth company. trying to navigate through this crisis. we are preparing also for the
positive next year. >> could china compensate for the rest of the world? if you see solid growth in asia, could it compensate for growth in the united states? regions -- even western europe, if you take out retail, the travel retail number, it is difficult because there is no one in the play around the world. even in europe last year, we were at 3%, which is pretty good. 3% also, not america. so in fact the consumption really in the countries on the continent has been really recovering. it is a pretty good sign. a hugecommerce has been story for you in the last quarter in the previous quarter, for that matter as well. i think i saw a piece indicating
that you were plus 23%. does that number sound about right? we are not plus 23, we are plus 61. on total, the growth on e-commerce is extremely strong, and it is going to keep growing. message could really be the alternative in many markets for consumers to shop. annmarie: that was jean-paul agon speaking with guy johnson. from cosmetics to commodities. revenue for third quarter beat analyst estimates. they continue the recovery from the lows in the second quarter. joining us this morning is hilde merete aasheim. thank you so much for joining us. maximum -- this massive aluminum producer.
in the world a sense of how the aluminum is doing. you said global demand will be weak in 2020 and that will lead us to a surplus. how big a surplus are we talking, and what is the risk to the downside of this outlook? hilde: thanks for having a chance to talk to you this morning. we see that there is a surplus supply demand balance. there was a surplus in the second quarter because market demand has recovered from the second quarter to the third quarter. it is an that sense better outlook. also for fourth quarter in terms of driving down the surplus going forward. ismarie: how sustainable this recovery? i am especially interested in europe, given the resurgence of cases. we have had pmi data come out,
manufacturing very positive, but services much softer. how sustainable is that european recovery given all of this? hilde: if you look at the main market segment, it is in the transport segment, building and construction, and it is packaging. in the automotive and particularly in the u.s. market, a strong driver is the trailer market. we saw a drop in demand for trailers, overall 50% in july and august. , in 20%ee an optic going forward. so there is an optic in the , and buildingent and construction. that is good news. annmarie: speaking of transportation, you are part of this joint venture with hydro vault, and the idea is to take on tesla when it comes to tesla
-- to take on tesla when it comes to batteries. how likely is that? could you be a real competitor to tesla in this space? joint the project is a project, and it is about recycling the batteries for use. and here we join forces to produce the self of the batteries -- the cell for the batteries. in the recep clean of the batteries that we take back in our group, and also the raw -- you can reduce the mining for the raw materials needed for the production. which is really exciting. annmarie: i want to stay on green. one of the topics in last night's presidential debate in the united states was climate change. take a listen to this exchange last night.
mr. biden: i have a transition, yes. a transition. that's a big statement. mr. biden: it is a big statement. the oil industry pollutes significantly. let me finish the statement. it has to be replaced by renewable energy over time. seen majore have commitments from even china , fromdecarbonization europe. significantly can improve the prospects for green aluminum. if there is a biden administration, will it change plans, or will it put the push to the aluminum industry for that green aluminum? hilde: our agenda is about profitability, driving sustainability. a good position in our company, producing aluminum
with the lowest carbon already today. the median producer in that low carbon segment -- we believe that the megatrends we see around us in terms of decarbonization, in terms of electrification of the transport segment, in terms of the focus on the economy, we should be well sufficient with the aluminum that we produce, having this low carbon footprint. you said on your first day on the job, 2019, sustainability, profitability. what about what your company could provide potential? do you see a change of what you're doing at your company if there was a change on climate change in the united states? i think we have to educate the market and educate the consumer. we see more and more traction, and the uric -- in the european
markets where customers want to buy greener products. we see traction for when we are in the markets, which is about low carbon products in europe. i think we need to focus to u.s.,e the markets in the of taking decisions when you buy the products that you consume every day. what about the ep -- what about the impact of e.u. dumping rules, and aluminum exports? how is that going to impact your profitability? has implemented a number of measures which really support the green economy. a rawum is defined as material in europe now, in order to promote greener industries. that is also the reason why a clearlso has taken
stance on dumping measures, in terms of avoiding the carbon import from other sources outside europe. regulationshe e.u. are really supporting a green economy in europe. we will have to see what happened in the united states. tilde merit i shine -- hilde merete aasheim, thank you for turning us. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: president trump and joe biden covered a wide range of issues in the second presidential debate, which was markedly less unruly than their previous encounter. the candidates sparred over economic policy, the coronavirus pandemic, immigration, and racism. >> you also said a vaccine would be coming in weeks. is that a guarantee? pres. trump: it is not a guarantee, but it will be by the end of the year. mr. biden: in fact, not saying i
take no responsibility initially. anyone responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the united states of america. leigh-ann: governments around europe have been deploying curfews more widely as a second wave of coronavirus infections gains momentum. france has told 46 million people to say -- to stay home after 9:00 p.m. italy, germany, and at least eight other nations also saw a record infection rate. goldman sachs has admitted its role in the biggest foreign bribery case in u.s. enforcement history and will enter a guilty plea for the first time ever. helped spreadit $1.6 billion in illicit payments across malaysia and the middle east. .y diverting cash goldman will pay more than $2.3
billion, the largest penalty in u.s. history for a violation of the foreign corrupt practices act. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. annemarie? annmarie: european equities to the upside. we are in the full swing of earnings season. to an appliance maker ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
outlook as opera -- has raised full outlook. the stock is off to present this morning. jonasg us now is samuelson. one of the trends of the pandemic is improving their homes, the stove top, the microwave, the washing machines, etc. where have you seen that trend impact your business? a global is really phenomenon. as people spend more time at home, they use our products more. they really want innovative solutions that help people provide better health care meals, care for their clothing, care for their homes, and that is where our focus is playing out. it is been a very favorable trend for us. trendie: have also seen a for a healthier diet. what appliance has done the best during the pandemic? what are people after? jonas: one of our standout
products is our new frigidaire gallery air fry cooker. that is a cooker that also includes an air fryer in the oven, which helps consumers to cook in a much healthier way rather than deep frying. it can do it in the oven and taste just as well and it is much more healthy. annmarie: how much of the sales was that pent-up demand following some of the worst we have seen in the spring with the pandemic? clearly our product are essential for people's daily lives, so that volume lost in the second quarter was not lost permanently. people still need their appliances, and we saw a lot of that catch up in the third quarter, and we are now even on versus theine basis prior year. we saw a lot of catch up, but this trend we discussed around people spending more time at home, traveling less, investing more in their homes, that is a trend that we are seeing in the
third quarter and we continue to see going up in q4 and beyond. annmarie: your is the full your outlook and have turned positive on european demand. europe,y we wake the and another city is expanding curfews, another government, and there is a spiking of cases. are you seeing any anxiety and nervousness from retailers or customers? jonas: i think we are all concerned about the health impact and the spread of the pandemic and the potential consequences of that. but right now, that trend we discussed where, again, people have to cook and clean their clothes, and their household budgets are positively impacted by not traveling, they have the money to spend an right now they are, and we expect that to continue. then of course there could be further lockdowns and so on, even though we are not seeing that could physically impact their ability to distribute. but demand is quite favorable. annmarie: that moment where you
might have to change your business model because of more lockdowns, how are you preparing for that? jonas: i think already from the second quarter we switched a lot of our sales to online, mainly to -- we have that direct capability. so that and also our trade partners, for example curbside deliveries. so we really are treating our products as essential goods. and we are doing everything to open up alternative channels to our consumers. annmarie: overnight there was the u.s. presidents debate, which all day you will be hearing sound in the media between president donald trump and former price president -- former vice president joe biden. you have had your share of tariff issues, whether it is between the u.s.-china trade war, or sending washing machines to mexico and the united states. how would we see that change
play out if there were a biden administration? jonas: that would be difficult for us to predict. generally speaking, we have a regionalized supply chain. for north america -- north america for north america, europe for europe. we are very much in favor of free and open trade, but the core capability for us to execute profitability is really reliant on our regionalized supply chain. it is not a critical issue for us, but it is important. critical but important. jonas samuelson, ceo of electrolux. ourng up, more from conversation with barclays ceo jes staley after the bank posted a beat on earnings. shares taking off this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
benchmark index. jes staley spoke to anna edwards about the risk in the u.k. market. jes: the challenge for all the banks, but particularly in the u.k., a close to zero environment is tougher a bank that regard -- that relies on a large balance sheet asset and reliability. a lot of our banking services in the u.k. are for free. getting money out of your atm machine, your checking account, etc. as adjusters to help our customers in this time of need, in the first half -- in the last six months of this year, we have waived over 100 million pounds of overdraft charges and banking fees. so we are being conservative in terms of trying to make sure that our customers don't get into financial distress given what is going on in the market. on the others of that is the
mortgage market, which is surprisingly robust. our market share has grown a lot in the third quarter. interest lending, the mortgages have gone up. you say it in our net interest margins. one of the real encouraging signs in the u.k.'s how more -- how robust its mortgage market is. we want to extend credit to customers who want to refinance their home or buy a new home. so the mortgage market is one of the surprising markets of the third quarter. aboutyou have talked negative interest rates this morning. i heard you reference the free nature of a lot of banking products in the u.k. are you thinking about passing on any of the costs of negative interest rates should they come to pass with new customers? jes: you know, there are negative interest rates in certain market in europe, and there indeed with some large corporate clients, we have passed on those negative interest rates into the positive
pool for large corporate's in certain markets in europe. we are prepared operationally for the bank to run with negative interest rates. there are some negative parts of negative and just rates, and consumers will go to cash. i don't think that is necessarily a good outcome, but we are ready to manage negative interest rates. we would rather not charge our clients those negative interest rates. but we also have to manage the financial integrity of the bank. i think it is important that the central banks keep in their wallets the ability to use negative interest rates, but i personally believe here in the u.k. it is not likely. anna: you have talked about how you are going to give guidance 2020d the dividend for the mark. we will look ahead to that then. are you having conversations with regulators? are things moving on that front? jes: as a bank of england has said, we will have discussions
with the pra and the fourth quarter of this year. as i mentioned, this is the strong as the bank's balance sheet has been full dump our c to one ratio, our capital risk assets is now 14.6%. it has never been at that level. we are very liquid. we will have the conversations with the bank of england the latter part of this year, and then we will address our policy around returning capital to shareholders and our year-end result coming up shortly at the beginning of 2021. annmarie: barclays ceo jes staley. our top story, the president is bb-8 -- the presidential debate. if you missed it, here are the highlights. ," we cannot lock ourselves up in a basement like joe does. mr. biden: he says people are learning to live with it. people are learning to die with it. >> also said a vaccine will be coming in weeks. is that a guarantee?
pres. trump: it is not a guarantee, but it will be by the end of the year. anyone who is responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the united states of america. pres. trump: if you go and you look at what has happened in new york, it is a ghost town. it is a ghost town. when you talk about plex glass, these are restaurants that are dying. ableiden: we ought to be to walk and chew gum at the same time. we ought to be able to safely open, but we need resources to open. annmarie: covid-19 on the balance. the election 11 days away. surveillance," coming up, with tom keene new edwards in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
behave. the audience wear face masks -- or they were shown the door. the candidates deliver a more muted debate. trump spoke of success. mr. biden said he would "choose hope over fear." higher yields. 11 days onto our many elections, the state of the economy waiting and waiting and waiting for a vaccine. good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance on friday in new york. anna edwards in london. in for francine lacqua. give me a united kingdom focus. how much of written is locked down right now? -- how much of great britain is locked down right now? anna: quite a lot. lockdown, in
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