tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 23, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> does at the bottom are having a very hard time. >> we are having this income cliff at a time when consumers are supposed to go out and spend. >> the market is not as well-prepared as it normally is for these kind of downside events. >> this is a market thinking at some point, stimulus is going to happen. >> the fed has a lot of upside to accelerate. i think they are going to maintain this pace. >> we need support for the economy both from monetary and fiscal policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. bloomberg radio, bloomberg
television worldwide, good morning. 11 days to go on the election. what are we trying to do? we are trying to get through friday. this is a serious time, a serious debate last night. this pandemic has worsened worldwide. the challenge of a $3 trillion deficits. the civility of last night was noted. jonathan: it was civil. it was muted. but stark differences on the outlook, particularly over covid. the president promising a vaccine within weeks, and biden focusing on the failures of the administration and the winter ahead of us. the vice president talking about winning hope over fear. that really goes to one of the themes this week we haven't talked about, which is the partition of economic america. lisa: the idea that the jobless
rate perhaps is going down, but stagnant at one rate. we got those initial jobless claims. the number of permanently unemployed americans, frankly those around the world, is increasing. it is going to take a long time to remedy some of the scarring taking place. tom: we've got two good hours coming up. the open in the 9:00 hour, and updatero getting an from the white house and mr. kudlow. from last night, here is trump. here is biden. pres. trump: you keep talking about all the things you are going to do, but you were there just a short time ago, and you guys did nothing. i ran because of you. mr. biden: you know who i am. you know who he is. you know his character. you know my character. you know our reputations for honor and telling the truth. mr. biden: if this -- pres.
trump: if this stuff is true about china, iraq, ukraine, this other stuff, that he is a corrupt politician. don't give me this stuff about being an innocent baby. they call you a corrupt politician. mr. biden: what he's accusing me of is a russian plan. they have said that this has all the -- five former heads of the cia, both parties, that what he is saying is a bunch of garbage. tom: really quite interesting last night. i'm going to go back to mario parker and our team, "trump, covid,par over graft, racism." the backdrop to this is the uncertainty forward. which uncertainty are you focused on? jonathan: the bond market in the markets, if that is what you are speaking to. the 10 year yield up through 80
basis points. the curve, twos-tens up to 70, a level we got close to in early june. and the highs of early june on the tenure in the yield -- early june on the 10 year yield. this economy has added more debt to companies not just in the united states, but around the world. tom: lisa, you read the fed bulletin at the monkey bar a few days ago. you are going to read the beige book this weekend. what uncertainty are you focused on? lisa: the other uncertainty here is how much weakness the dollar can have. this has been the other driver this week, touching the weakest levels. if you look at the bloomberg dollar spot index, it is the weakest in some ways since 2018. this is also a major dollar of yields rising. kathy jones of charles schwab center for research joins us now. where is your uncertainty? is it the same uncertainty that liz ann sonders has?
we are very much focused on the major issues here . the virus, when does it get under control, when can we get people up and running in terms of an economy. it looks to us like it is going to be quite a while still, even if we were to get a vaccine by the end of this year. then we have to look at the fed , but with action very -- jonathan: does the teen year yield have any business north of 1% anytime soon? 1% is we think probably the upper limit of where it can go from here. mighthere, the fed get somewhat concerned, and we might see some yield curve control because as you mentioned earlier, we have these huge levels of debt. we do not want to get into a debt trap where you can't grow because the debt levels are so
high, particularly at the cost of financing that debt. i think if you get much above 1% without a lot of really good economic news, you are probably going to start to see the credit spreads widen, financial conditions deteriorate, and that is when the fed will probably step in. jonathan: what does that mean for your investments elsewhere? means, asthink it opposed to this year, when we because ofeturns rates dropping, now you have to have some credit exposure because your gains and fixed them come are going to come from the coupons rather than price appreciations. we expect being down in duration, but taking some credit risk consciously and carefully,
but spreading out that risk pre-bradley so you can have enough carry in order to have positive returns. p.m., isterday at 4:30 was looking at the fed balance sheet, and it reached a new record high. if you dig into the report, it includes ongoing purchases of corporate debt, albeit at a slower pace. kathy: i think they are there for a good long time get i don't think they set this up as -- you know, they said it as a bridge to the other side of the crisis, but it is much longer in duration then probably anticipated at the time, but i don't see them backing off until the economy is fully up and running. i think the backstop will be there. put -- there are theyinly are plenty less up.n't used to find the set
tom: let me go back to a question of january of last year. do you clip a coupon, or can you actually invest for total return in bonds? kathy: i think you have to invest with total return. coupon is not as good, but you're not going to get a tremendous amount of that unless you go on the edge of risk. we don't mind having some exposure to those. we think emerging markets have some upside from here. but i do think you have to invest in total returns. you really don't have a lot of options at these yield levels. lisa: how much to foreign investors provide an backstop, given the dollar has dropped so much and will likely continue to do so if the prognosticators are correct? athy: it ebbs and flows little bit from month-to-month,
when we get the numbers, but i think foreign investors are still in. nominal yields are down, but they are still higher than europe or japan. real yields are pretty much comparable to where they are in europe. i think we will look at that as an opportunity to come into the u.s. market. jonathan: you know what time it is? it's time to turn around and do what you promised to do last time around, which is give us a tune on that beautiful piano. tom said he's going to bring in a guitar. we just want a little tune. kathy: ok, i promised i would do this, but be kind. i am not a professional musician. jonathan: we will be very kind. kathy: so you can hear the piano, ok. tom: do you know anyone direction? lisa: oh god, tom. ignore him. carry on. [laughter] everyone listening on radio
right now. jonathan: they are about to get a retreat, lisa. tom: in a very bright room, i should say. let's see if we pick it appear. lisa: tom is a consort of residences and pianos. jonathan: charles schwab should put this in their promotional material. let's listen in. ♪ tom: very cool. [laughter] round of applause for kathy jones. [applause] tom: kathy jones taking us out here. i would suggest the san
francisco symphony. kathy: you saw me mess up on the piano. tom: no, that was beautiful. i can do that. kathy: it is it -- i can't do that. kathy: is a nice piano. jonathan: kathy, thank you. charles schwab are going to be so proud. tom: liz ann sonders cannot do that. kathy, thank you. jonathan: we spent a couple of moments a couple of moments ago really trying to trash the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. do you remember our little office, the reason why lisa abramowicz refused to come? the room was so small. [laughter] lisa: you guys created the pandemic in that room. jonathan: this goes to show how dated davos, switzerland is now. there is no way that anybody would put two individuals from the same company in a room that small ever again.
thatwhat is amazing, in little space that you see, and our team creates this out of a concrete block in literally three weeks time, the interviews i have done their, i will give you just one. one day argentina blowup. this is the luck of "surveillance." two back to back just because they were scheduled. jonathan: have you forgotten i was next to you and that happened? tom: i thought lisa was with me. lisa: i'm looking at bonds. jonathan: i was next to you. tom keene, lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. and kathy jones is kathy jones. what a performance. tom: loved it. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news,
i'm ritika gupta. the chances of congress passing a stimulus package before the
election are fading fast. house speaker and a few people of seann treasury secretary steven mnuchin continue to bicker over the details of the almost $2 trillion proposal. meanwhile, resistance from sent republicans is building, and some house democrats are reluctant to come back to washington to vote if the senate won't do so. in europe, governments have started to impose curfews more widely to stop a resurgence of coronavirus. daily virus cases are hitting records across the continent. france reported more than 40,000 new cases for the first time. the u.k. has signed its first major trade deal since brexit. the agreement with japan largely preserves the terms under which the u.k. traded with tokyo as part of the european union. meanwhile, there are signs of progress in trade talks between the u.k. and the eu. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg
quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.
to take on putin when he is paying bounties to kill american soldiers in afghanistan, when he is engaged in activities trying to destabilize all of nato. ,onathan: nashville, tennessee with donald trump and former vice president joe biden, rounding out the debate series, just to debates instead of three going into election -- just two debates instead of three going into the election 11 days away. euro-dollar, $1.1860. a lineup of guests either reconfiguring their rooms or canceling their appearances for the next several weeks, given what just happened to kathy jones. tom: it was great. we thank ms. jones. she's slotted in for an encore performance within for cisco orchestra in 2022 -- with the san francisco orchestra in 2022. right now, bloomberg contributor and iona college contributed
jeanne zaino. i remember that day when george herbert walker bush won in new hampshire, and the excitement as he wandered over to vermont to do a follow-up campaign experience. there was that electricity that we've got the momentum. who's got the electricity this morning? jeanne: i think biden still has it. i don't think trump was able to do enough last night to change the trajectory of this race. i think he did a much better job than he did in the first and only debate, but i don't think it was enough given where the polls are at this point. of course, i want to thank you for not asking me to play the piano. m incredibly intimidated to talk after kathy doing that. tom: that's ok, we will get you with another instrument of your choice in about three minutes. i look at the now what, and to me it is not an 11 day dash.
you get to the sunday talk shows, and then after that. what is the then after that after this sunday's talk shows on bloomberg radio? annne: this election is election season. we've already had about 40 million americans that have already voted. that narrows the opportunity for someone who is behind like the president is in these polls to change this race. there could still be changes. we could still have an event or an occurrence that changes things. we saw that in 2016. but this is a referendum on donald trump's presidency, and we heard him last night trying to make the case that he is not a politician, but joe biden has been not doing all the things he is promising. while that may have been really effective in 2016, it is harder to make that case when you have
been in for four years as president and people are judging you, and we are in the midst of a pandemic that people don't think you have handled that well. the window of opportunity for this president is narrowing, but we have also seen the polls in battleground states tightening, and not within the margin of error. if he could bring over a few of the un-remaining -- of the remaining undecideds, he could eat out a victory. if you can't between -- he could squeak out a victory. if he can't win florida, this thing is over. lisa: jon ferro is going to say the polls indicate that joe biden will emerge the victor, and we have tom keene who will say, can we trust the polls? if polls don't get it right this time, if we see a redux of 2016, is the entire political polling industry dead? jeanne: i don't think so. i think we all need to be cautious. these are always within the
margin of error. while they didn't predict the outcome of 2016, the national polls were pretty good. could have been a bit better, but let's not forget, in 2016, donald trump andmichigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania by less than 1%. that is really tough for anybody to pull. i have to defend the industry because we do better, but we also have to educate voters and people when we talk about polls that these are probabilities. they are within a margin. when we say 95% confidence, that means five out of 100 times, this thing is not going to happen. that is a possibility in 2020 just like it was in 2016. but they still give us indication as to where the picture of the american public , not a given moment something you can predict actual outcome from.
jonathan: the big difference between now and four years ago, the lead that hillary clinton had on election day was about three points. the final outcome was two points in her favor in the popular vote. as we look at things right now, almost double figures on the real clear average polls i have seen over the last few weeks, why do you think that is an accurate reflection of the mood of this country at the moment? i am not convinced that joe biden or the democrats take this by eight or nine points. i think nationally, he is going to take this probably closer to four points. that is my estimate. we arehink we are where primarily because this is a referendum on the president, and we are in the midst of , and heented science doesn't get past that that if he
had been talking in january, we would be ahead of this. but the pandemic has really changed everything. is where joe biden finds himself ahead. but i do think there are challenges here for the democrats and for biden, and i think the president should have talked more about this last night. many americans are not comfortable with the idea of democrats holding all of washington, d.c. in a matter of months, and what that will mean from a policy perspective. president and republicans make the case that the spending, the policy changes, the regulation that will go in place if democrats hold the congress and the white house is not something that americans want, that is an argument that could sway some undecided voters on the fence. jonathan: thank you. always appreciate your contribution. jeanne zaino, thank you very much. tom keene, 11 days to go until
we wrap up this thing. the polls are the polls. i read them out, you shrug your shoulders, and we go around in circles. tom: we will get more polls. i don't consider it 11 straight days. i think there is going to be some real ebb and flow. i get the idea of a lot of people voting early, and that is all new to everyone. i just really want to believe there will be that exhaustive pushed to tuesday, and that is how the president did it last time. jonathan: it is amazing that just a month or so ago, the huge uncertainty for this market was that wednesday morning we would wake up and we wouldn't have a result. is that still the huge concern on wall street? i would say that concern is out there, but nowhere near where it was a month ago. tom: i think it has almost evaporated. we will see. it will keep david westin busy. jonathan: it will keep david westin busy. it will keep all of us busy. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market pushing higher, up 11. we advance 0.3%.
jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures drifting higher by about a third of 1% on the s&p 500. a headline coming out of europe. big headline. i did not think i would be doing this four and a half years. here we are. is said they might get a smaller catch in the united kingdom. let me just get to sterling. 1.31 handle of the pound off the headline of may be some kind of agreement on fishing. tom: is a serious issue.
we spoke with one of the key ministers of the republic of ireland and ran through the spirit it is an intractable issue for a lot of the coastal parts of the united kingdom. out over the channel, out of the it goes tond depletion from the 1950's. the cod depletion from the 1970's from 3 million to one million is substantial. these are deadly serious billion-dollar negotiations. jonathan: we have talked about this. if you go for fish and chips used to get caught, you probably do not any cash used to get b -- you used to get cod. constituencies around the voting areas, also the constituencies that voted brexit, they wanted to get control back. maybe the french are giving back something to strike a deal. , up about .25%. that is the u.k. story. let's get to the american story.
nashville, tennessee, there was a debate yesterday evening with the president of the united states and joe biden on north korea. vice president biden: he has legitimized north korea, talked about his good buddy, who is a thug. trump: he did not like obama. having a good relationship with leaders of other countries is a good thing. vice president biden: we had a good relationship with hitler's before he invaded europe. former vice president joe biden and the president of the united states. tom: i am really glad we showed that. i was frankly stunned at that comment, and i am not sure how it rang, other than for so much of america that is ancient history. pitchy the vice president that, i am surprised it did not get more play. jonathan: foreign policy, that
is what the debate was meant to be on, but we just had those little moments. joining us on this market is lale topcuoglu. fantastic to catch up with you as always. this credit market, spreads are tight number treasury yields are low, higher this week. fixed income, but a huge trade through 2020. you think it will break anytime soon? lale: good morning. it is hard to tell whether it breaks or not, but this is a mistake many people do, they are very short-term oriented. if you think of running portfolios, they are like tankers. you cannot just ship them overnight. will the market break? i think the market is getting expensive. if you dissect the credit market , fortunes are closely tied to whether economic growth happens and what kind of stimulus package passes. tom: what is important for me, and it is great to have you on,
is in japan we are witnessing almost the lassitude where the dynamics have been sucked out of the fixed income market for various reasons. will that be the surprised one year and two years forward that we migrate from bond and fixed income dynamics to a much more static market? possible, but there are differences between the japanese markets and the u.s. markets. the investor base is different, the indices are different, there are notable differences. the key point is they have been fighting with low rates for an extended period of time and little to no inflation. can that happen here? sure. kathy jones hit the right point. we are talking about rising tenure rates. people were talking about a 4% 10 year not that long ago. maybe 1% max. it is entirely possible we are lower for longer. is: what is his amazing
kathy jones stretch was extraordinary. lisa: that definitely was extraordinary, which brings me to credit spreads. one reason i love having you on is you are realistic about the fundamental picture. a struggle with the unlimited liquidity from central banks. how do you maintain the bearish view in light of the fact the fed is backstopping the market and don't fight the fed is the predominant feeling across the street? lale: i will tell you how we are thinking about it. this don't fight the fed is very interesting. one of the possible mistakes the market is making for the future is now the corporate bond purchasing is now in the toolkit . there may be a nuance in this crisis versus the global financial crisis, which is this is a global pandemic and it hit everybody at the same time.
there was no actor. i will warn the market that in the future, when we have another crisis, which we will, cycle still happen, it is entirely possible that corporate bonds -- i want to make sure i plant that seed. how do we construct portfolios? investment grade has gotten expensive. toestment grade, you need take companies that will pass the deleverage. there are not a lot of them come and take duration risk on those. it is about credit taking. high-yield we are still playing the liquidity, which is the refinancing theme. by the bonds in good-quality companies. the rest of high-yield is challenging. you knew i was going to talk about statistics. high-yield's average index bread in the u.s. is 490. let's assume to be that index you have to have companies in the 500 to 800 basis point
spread range. that is only 20% of the u.s. high-yield index. nearly half his goods, leisure, capital that are at the epicenter of coronavirus related slowdowns and stimulus payments. this is why you cannot disentangle high-yield fundamentals from the economic recovery. jonathan: let's start with investment grade and then we go to high-yield. the companies within investment grade on the path towards deleveraging, you said many, where do you find them? lale: there are not that many but there are a few companies that have learned their lesson and will deleverage. they are selling assets and making sure they are working on their leverage. these are basically what people were talking about there were 3, criticizedrket was it is time to deleverage because
the good times may not last. these companies are working towards moving down the leverage. there is a point i think there is a narrative in the market which i do not agree with, which is the golden age of bond investor because now they have people have put out they will deleverage. let me point this out. large companies are not borrowing from banks, they will go to the bond market. the biggest difference between banks and the bond market is bank debt is at par with no penalty. you cannot do that with the bond market. with the companies are banking ta growth orbi asset sales to deleverage. that is highly dependent on economic growth. preferreds a legitimate yield equivalent or delay have -- lale: there are some fixed for life preferreds that are very high coupon. as the companies -- through the
pandemic none of these things will get cold -- at least until you get a better picture of the are decent places -- there are decent places to be. lisa: is there any trade to be had in the 11 days left before the u.s. election? lale: no. these things are very hard. it is similar to the equity market. there is a general trait that is happening. whichever party wins, it is likely we will have stimulus. the question is how big it will be. you can see the companies that make it to benefit the stimulus if you see the stocks and the bond market, little bit of movement. it is not the golden age of credit. i have to ask, is that a look at of shade at pgim and greg peters in the last couple of weeks? lisa: are you trying to get her in trouble? lale: i am not calling everybody out.
i have heard that scenario. i'm not sure they are well of them -- i'm not sure they are one of them. jonathan: i'm just wondering if i should team up for a conversation in the 9:00. [laughter] thank you, as always. lisa: seriously, trying to stop trouble. jonathan: lale topcuoglu there. i'm just saying, i just had the conversation with greg peters who taught it the golden age of credit and lale topcuoglu was typing the other side. tom: what are you doing on the real yield today? jonathan: i will walk you through the 9:00 first. coming up in about 20 minutes. we will catch up with larry kudlow, the national economic council director. shortly after that we will talk to bridgewater's bob prince, the thato, and shortly after we will have a conversation with mohamed el-erian, now the queens college president. looking forward to that. are we skewed toward the jets this week or the giants?
lisa: i am skewed toward the giants. jonathan: then after that hugh hendry. deep thinkers coming up in about 19 minutes. tom: unlike -- we have shallow thinkers or something. lisa: we have music. tom: we have piano. jonathan: we have people that play the piano. tom: you did not answer my question. what you have on the real yield? jonathan: it is a secret. i will tease that at the 9:00. [laughter] going to be a good one. coming up next, i will not be here. pat foye will be. tom: an important conversation. jonathan: i will not play it down. you will need the conversation. eyes's of the world on capitol hill. tom: will be sure you get there at 9:00. jonathan: you had your fun.
tom: four minutes. jonathan: i will get my nap in, come back for more. futures up 12, we advance one third of 1%. this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. one of the last potential turning points of the 2020 election. president trump and joe biden squared off or 19 minutes in their second debate -- 90 minutes. they squared off over the economy come the environment, and the stimulus package that has now stalled in congress. president trump: nancy pelosi does not want to approve it, i do. >> you're the president. biden: republican leader in the senate said i cannot pass it, he does not have the republican votes. president trump: nancy pelosi does not want to approve anything because she would love
to have victories on november 3. vice president biden: the heroes act has been sitting there. ritika: unlike the first debate, the candidates largely complied with the rules of the debate that call for them to allow each other time to speak. for the first time, the fda has given formal approval to a drug for fighting the coronavirus. gilead's antiviral therapy remdesivir had already been prescribed under emergency use authorization. it was given to president trump when he was diagnosed with the virus. chicago is hoping a business curfew will help stop the rapid rise of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. it will last at least two weeks. the curfew will be in place from 10:00 p.m. to 6:00 for all nonessential businesses. bars will no longer be able to serve customers indoors. the number of cases in chicago have risen 54%. bloomberg has learned u.s. regulators are close to a final decision on whether to bring an
vice president biden: he says we are learning to live with it, the people are learning to die with it. >> you said a vaccine is coming weeks. is that a guarantee? trump: it is not a guarantee. vice president biden: anyone responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the united states of america. tom: the two nominees talking about the pandemic. what we have tried to do is try to understand that yes we do economics, finance, investment, yes, we do politics and we do it with fancy ties and suits and dresses as we talk to the bloomberg elite of the world, and we forget not there a lot of people out there. withng us is pattrick foye a small shop called the metropolitan transit authority, where he is chairman and ceo.
i want to go right to the basics. the last time you were on we talked about a bus driver moving people around northern central park. how about ratigan, henry, heartland, woods and augustine doing what you do every day which is jumping on tracks of moving railroads? patrick: those employees saved a man's life. a people do that regularly. they were the right five-man on the spot. they were flaggers so they knew what to do. jumped down and brought the man up to safety. it could have been a terrible situation had they not been there, had they not used their training and their bravery and courage to save a man's life. incredible public service. were distracted by getting billions in aid from
this natural disaster as well as millions worldwide. what is your word on your need to get a check in the mail? pat: there are three reasons the mta needs $12 billion, what is jobs, the second is social equity, and the third is environment. i described the last time i was on the drastic cuts we may be forced to make in service of the 40% reduction on subways and buses come up to 50% on long island railroad, and laying off 8000 9000 colleagues. -- ourmit area estimates poor limit area estimates would be a resumption in economic activity in the york region of $100 billion come into resumption of 350,000 jobs, including 300,000 jobs in new york. from a social equity point of view, right now we are carrying on subways and buses about 3 million customers a day, that is up substantially from the depths of the pandemic, but those are
workers that cannot work remotely and cannot telecommute. heroes mta workers were carrying heroes during the depths of the pandemic, they continue to do that. the people we are carrying do not have the option of a car, do not have the option of working from home, it is a matter of social equity. lastly there is a limit. we are carrying 90% of pandemic passenger car or truck volumes on our bridges and tunnels. there is a limit to how many cars and trucks can come into the city of new york and tom into manhattan. from the point of view of jobs, social equity, and the environment, we need funding as a first-order priority. lisa: what is your absolute deadline when it comes to making these cuts? what is your deadline for the funding? organization, we will present a plan and a budget
in november. the board will vote on it in december. it has to be adopted in december. bond investors and credit agencies and folks like yourselves will be looking at that process. we need funding and certainty about funding early to mid december at the absolute latest. obviously watching the sausage making going on in washington, we urge the senate republican leadership to support funding for mass transit because of the state of new york and the city of new york. if we do not get that, the mta may be forced to make draconian service cuts and to lay off thousands of people. , andconomic, social equity environmental consequences of that will be dramatic. lisa: as a lifelong new yorker, born and raised, ridership has increased from the depths of the pandemic, but it is far below anything in recent memory. given the fact the mta is the lifeblood of new york city, is new york city dying? pat: new york city is not dying.
new york city is experiencing a tough time. is the epicenter of the pandemic in the united states and the world. thanks to governor cuomo's leadership we have broken the curve. the curve has been broken. infection rates are low. other parts of the country are experiencing spikes. new york city is going through a tough time. new york city has gone through tough times before. the 1918 pandemic, 9/11, superstorm sandy. the city will alive. have gone through pandemics in the past. new york will get through this. to get through this the mta has to be funded. it is the circulatory system of the new york city economy. tom: pat foye with the metropolitan transit authority, their chairman and their ceo. this is so important. ours still down but to
listeners and viewers worldwide, the separation of -- not the haves and the have-nots, but all of us from truly essential workers is stark. lisa: pat foye touched on something that was very important, very important going into the larry kudlow conversation, this idea of stimulus and when we get it. it matters. the fundamental issue that has been a sticking point is the amount of financing state and local government. the question i have is how long can some of these governments wait before they have to implement some of these austerity measures, cuts, that will further accelerate some of the decline in the labor market? this is an ongoing debate. how long can they hold out? pat foye was saying mid december. tom: even more tragic is once they start announcing the thousands and thousands of layoffs coast-to-coast, including i would suggest a mix of politics, they will switch on a dime, so why do we need to get
there, why can't we just fix it now? there is a small matter of an election in the way. what will you read this weekend besides the fed bulletin. lisa: emily in paris? tom: it is killer. lisa: i will read the report. i want to understand the move behind the bond yield. that is an interesting move given the fact the fed is still buying bonds, still expecting muted growth, there is still uncertainty around the election. tom: i go back to your muted growth. the huge mistreat with all of the other distractions is where is the aggregate demand. brainerd touched on this in important comments earlier this week which is where is the economy? we will dive into that in a very exciting next week. of course the following week, the first tuesday of november with our special coverage. i am not sure kevin cirilli comes home from nashville. maybe they just plant him there
york for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. equity futures up 12. we advance .33%. what an hour for you. in a few moments we will catch up with larry kudlow, then later in the hour, bridgewater's bob prince, mohamed el-erian of queens college, and hugh hendry through the next 60 minutes on bloomberg tv. the price action shaping up as follows. up 12 on the s&p 500. we advance .33%. yields higher through the weeks to .68%. up.-dollar we begin with the big issue. two presidential candidates in nashville, tennessee. >> we closed up the greatest economy in the world in order to fight this horrible disease that came from china. >> i