tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 3, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
♪ manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. edition ofdaily daybreak europe. your top headlines. highs and lows. u.s. stocks hit another record. nancy pelosi and joan schumer back a bipartisan stimulus proposal. covid isn't relenting. the u.s. had its deadliest day ever.
los angeles orders residents to stay-at-home. the clock ticks. france warns it could veto a trade deal between the u.k. and the eu if it doesn't like the terms. it comes as officials on both sides of the deal could be done in the next few days. increased scrutiny. the house of representatives clears a china delisting bill, sending it to president trump. the measure could lead to companies being kicked off of the american exchanges. 6:00 in london. 7:00 in paris. 10:00 in downtime see iop. we have the lifeline of stimulus. stimulus against the risk, the u.s. deadliest day of hospitalizations so far. the reality of covid is trumped by stimulus. good morning. annmarie: if i would have told you a few years ago that we would have the s&p 500 hitting a
fresh record high at the same u.s. had its deadliest day with 2700 people dying due to covid. you would not believe me. this divergence between the market and the reality of covid is yet again playing out. manus: indeed. i take you back 24 hours. a dissenting dollar. hsbc says he will have a diversion dollar. everything prices off bonds. might bevigilantes hunkering down. where will they come back again? we will talk more about that in a moment. i knew you were going to talk about bond vigilantes today. there's a good piece on the terminal talking about the fact, where does the duty yields go? the fact is ready to step in at any moment. how do you pierce through that 1% on the 10 year? we have asian equities, when you
look at the benchmark, moving to the upside. u.s. equity futures, we saw them move softer after that headline came out with what's going on in los angeles. the stay-at-home order will affect 10 million people. 93 basis points. brent crude down for tense of 1%. trading at $48. we are waiting for the opec-plus meeting today. the tone starting to be more friendly. i don't think there will be a messy divorce. a deal looks to be in sight. there's no deal until there is one and they announce it. democratmentioned, leaders in congress have thrown their support behind a 900 billion dollar bipartisan stimulus proposal as a foundation for a new round of negotiations. ball inession puts the the court of republicans to make a compromise. the pandemic continues to rage with fatalities topping 200 -- 2700, the deadliest day ever.
hospitalizations topping 100,000 for the first time. testifying before the house committee, jiao powell -- jay powell says he's in no hurry to taper the bond program. there are many sectors that could use help. the labor market, we have to remember that despite the rapid progress in getting people back to work, there is still 10 million people who are out of work because of the pandemic. light at the end of the tunnel. 10 million people is the reality out of work. our guest joins us this thursday morning. let's kick it off with the stimulus deal in the united states. a stalemate for months. behind democrats getting a bipartisan deal. the pressure is on mitch mcconnell. do you think they get this deal done before january 1?
do you see further weakness against the dollar? >> good morning. the key point from the markets perspective here is really the a symmetry in the fed reaction. as we heard from the segment you fed, while they may see light at the end of the tunnel, cannot look through the current worsening of covid in the u.s.. so it means we are going to have this exceptionally dovish reaction from the fed. and partly, it's an asymmetrically dovish reaction function. in the state of the world where the amount of u.s. fiscal comes through in larger size or faster than expected, the fed will not be quick whatsoever to unwind. alternatively, if less comes through or it takes longer to come through, the fed will need to do more. the is symmetry is what is key in supporting risky asset prices
and also what is key in underlying structural weaker transfer the dollar. -- trends for the dollar. manus: i had the global head of hsbc. why not pit the two of you? can we get a bid and an offer from the two big houses? they say that risk on, risk off is over. we will revert to focusing on growth. a divergent dollar and 22 anyone. do you see i divergent dollar -- a divergent dollar? up against the euro and sterling. divergent dollar play for you? sam: it's not a diversion dollar play for us. it's a broadly coordinated weakening in the dollar. the challenge with focusing too much on growth differentials is with central banks so far behind the curve, the feedthrough from growth outperformance to
currencies isn't that clear. the u.s. is a great example. suppose u.s. gross outperforms. that should lead to u.s. inflation expectations rising. responding, itt means u.s. your -- real yields fall further. the dollar versus lower the currencies is typically more quarterly correlated with relative real yield spreads. in the state of the world where u.s. growth outperformance equals lower u.s. real yield, i would argue that good news for the u.s. is bad news for the dollar. annmarie: ok. that's definitely right. employment, not inflation. you talk about these currencies that have underperformed due to covid. manus talking about ozzie today. since 2018.level the british pound soda done --
should have done better. the u.k. was the first in the west to have the regulation approval of a vaccine and it will hit the most vulnerable in u.k. society by next week. brexit is pushing it down. when you look at these currencies, is this an idiosyncratic moment for the u.k.? the underperformance in the suggest,terday, as you was driven by a little bit of a recalibration in the market expectations on brexit. the market isn't price for a breakdown in brexit talks or that no deal scenario. there would be a bigger move in the currency if that were to materialize. quantitative models at bnp paribas signal the market is long pounds. not a big position. it's a moderate long. in the scenario of brexit talks freaking down, we could see
eurosterling trade up and above 95%. our base case is still that you have a skinny deal. near term, there are downside risks. what you mentioned around the impact of vaccine deployment on currencies is super important to address. the nearing of vaccine deployment clears the path for investment in those assets which have underperformed most covid. it means economies where services account for a higher percent of gdp than manufacturing, those currencies that are strongly correlated to the equity sectors which have underperformed most due to covid, such as travel and leisure, banks and energy, they should not perform. in this framework, sterling stands out as quite a strong contender, which should benefit from the cyclical equity rotation trade evolving in fx. brexit aside, we think a strong case for sterling gains on an
unwind of covid underperformance. much. thank you very sam lynton-brown. laura wright is in london hq to keep you up to speed with your first word news. laura: germany is extending its partial lockdown by three more weeks until january 10. angela merkel will reconvene with national leaders the week before to reassess the restrictions. she says infection rates are still far too high and need to come down faster. it's unclear if the vaccine will be available before christmas. the u.s. house approved legislation that could lead to chinese companies being kicked off american exchanges. the bill one bipartisan support and now goes to president donald trump who is expected to sign it. as well as requiring companies -- firms have to disclose if they are under government control.
former french president -- [inaudible] until 1981ce for -- and was a key architect of european integration, laying the groundwork for the euro. helping modernize french society by legalizing abortion and making divorce easier. he died at age 94 after contracting covid-19. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ annmarie: thank you very much. manus: you caught me typing. that's what happens when you look down. i will get in trouble now. very naughty manners. coming up, -- fuel to the brexit fire. it could be ready to veto the
annmarie: 6:14 and the city of london. aance warning it could veto trade deal between the united kingdom and the european union if it doesn't like the terms. pressure on negotiators not to make further concessions. boris johnson says any deal must let the u.k. make its own laws and control its own fisheries. joining us now for a roundup of all the latest concerns for brexit is maria tadeo. is france serious about this veto? is it a negotiation tactic? maria: it could be both. can a country like france veto this still?
yes they can. every european nation will have to unanimously agree to the final deal. it is important to put context of the comments. this was all happening yesterday. he was briefing european ambassadors and the french envoy made it clear that this is still a political decision, that he should not move too much from his negotiated mandate, that he should not give too much away. ultimately, this will come down to european leaders. almost a, this is technical negotiation happening between the eu and the u.k.. the final approval of this comes down to the european leaders, whether they feel this is a good deal for their countries or not. more of a threat. this is just a warning, a negotiatingthe team. the eu leaders have to agree to this. they have to be able to sell the final deal to their own national domestic audience. for the french and belgium, the
dutch, it's important to get something on the fish that doesn't look too much like a concession. interesting tobe see whether those politicians throw him under the bus. whatever he comes back with. that veto is getting wielded a lot this week. what is the timeline? you will have very late nights. you and anna edwards, the duchess of brexit. maria: yes. i go back to the comments yesterday. sticking points remain in key three areas. fish, governing, a level playing field. at this point, he's not in a position to get a deal this week. that may not happen by the end of the week. that would take us to the european council that is scheduled to take place on thursday. that could be problematic for the u.k.. the europeans are focused on hungary and poland, another part
-- possible veto. by the week of the 18th, that is seen as the ultimate deadline. you need time for the european parliament and u.k. parliament to go over this. the timeline looks very fluid. if anyone tells you they know when it is coming, i want to speak to that person. at this point, it is not clear that this is eminent. it could take days or another full week of talks. manus: just give michelle a quick call. yeah? maria will have to work extra hard this week? i will let her know. there you go. thank you very much. now to the hardest worker. thank you very much. back to sam lynton-brown. the risk is that there is no deal. hsbc says that could take us off by 15%. let's say there is a deal.
cable is a reaction function of the risk off momentum. sterling is going to be structurally challenged regardless of a skinny deal into 2021. where will that be most manifest? sterling will be structurally challenged. the key point i would make here is on valuations. take theok -- let's dollar out of things and look at eurosterling. eurosterling long-term, structural equilibrium. near 85, 86. that's according to the bnp paribas model. at current levels, you are already trading five percent rich to that long-term equilibrium. you are trading against the backdrop of a euro which is also structurally challenged by a lot of factors. on a skinny deal being agreed, we think eurosterling will go down. it may not go down all the way
to fair value. around 87 or 88 is certainly a reasonable, quite a conservative target for the repricing that would need to take place. therefore, to justify a move in cable through 140 at the first half of next year, that's not very difficult. if you have 3% coming from eurosterling and you have 3% coming from euro-dollar, you are there quite quickly. that really underlies are bullish target in cable. annmarie: the best days of the currency are in front of us, not behind us? is that correct? sam: certainly, the last five years have not been the best days for sterling. i would very much say yes. over the next five years, we expect the pound to perform better than it has in the aftermath of the brexit talks.
manus: so sam, in terms of the rest of the momentum around sterling, huge calls from goldman sachs saying it is under loved. flows supporty the narrative that you just put forward as well? sam: we think they will. this ties in with the scene we segment, in the prior around the equity rotation trade evolving and fx. the equity sectors which benefit most from the markets consensus views that global economic recovery in 2021 are those which have underperformed the most this year. a lot of focus has been placed growthvalue versus rotation trade.
to make it more specific, the sectors which have underperformed have been travel and leisure, banks and energy. when you look at these types of equity rotation trades, the pound should benefit due to the higher sectoral weightings within u.k. indices. is stronggue it further supported factor for the pound next year. the equity rotation trades, the unwind of covid underperformance evolving and fx. annmarie: something we have not touched upon today is that break out of 120 on the euro-dollar this morning. notes, you say we will hit 125. does that get past to one funny five -- past christine lagarde and philip lane? ecb do not want a stronger currency. they will do all they can to try to prevent euro appreciation.
we think there is nothing the ecb could do to stop a stronger euro amid a weakening dollar. this comes down to how limited the monetary policy toolbox is for the ecb. to increase and extend. we expect an extension and operations. these types of measures at this point are really incremental easing. if you like sustaining current easing measures rather than doing more. the only scenario for the ecb where we expect them to have a strong impact on the currency is if they were to cut deposit rates by a lot. in the region of 50 basis points. this is highly unlikely. the ecb are not a meaningful impediment to euro-dollar appreciation. forarie: thank you so much
fantastic month and fantastic time for stock pickers. you have this wider dispersion, correlations coming down the market, and this rotation. if you pick the right stocks, you could've capitalize. the issue for these large cap managers, they hung onto old habits. those habits being buying and holding on to large-cap tech. that worked so well in the beginning of the year. rotation,d this value a large amount of managers missing out. look at those large-cap managers. only 14% beat the russell 1000 last month. look at some of the individual managers. discipline equity fund for example. ,t is in the 95th percentile beating 95% of its peers. yet it has a large holding intact. 2/5 of the portfolio is tech.
it fell to the 12th percentile of gains. going forward, will these manager start to tilt to value if that is what we see outperform now? annmarie: thank you so much for that. coming up on the program, we are going to talk about opec. a quick look at where we trade this morning with the oil price. relatively flat. a little bit of pressure. we are on edge waiting for that decision. there was some infighting. there always is. they will be meeting again today. will the coalition find an agreement over cuts to production. we bring you the latest. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds
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>> good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters, is 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. i am annmarie hordern and this is daybreak europe. here are today's top stories. u.s. stocks hit another record as nancy pelosi and chuck schumer back a bipartisan stimulus proposal but covid is not relenting. the u.s. had it deadliest day ever. france warns it could veto a trade deal between the united kingdom and the european union if it does not like the terms.
it comes as officials on both sides say a deal could be done in the next few days. cruise control. opec-plus make progress on negotiations ahead of today's meeting. talks are focused on adding supply to the market. 1.9 million barrels of oil will flood the market on january 1 without a deal. london, seven: 30 am. normally, we would be outside in the cold, lining up to go into the secretary before the massive scrum. for me this morning come outside i --ec watch is the s&p s&p 500 hitting an all-time high. this divergence we talked about everyday for me was just pivotal yesterday. if you listen to mnuchin and the testimony where powell talked about 10 million people being out of work as a result of covid, that is more than you had
in the great financial crisis back in 2009. there is no doubt about it. it was the prospect of the first -- coming back from $2.4 trillion, over $900 billion. that is the narrative you have on covid. annmarie: it certainly is and the pressure is on the republicans. i have to say there are some republicans who don't want a seamless package and if they will accept it, do not want to go over $500 billion. this is still under $1 trillion. a lot of americans are scratching their heads and justg six months of talks being stuck, gridlock, where was this bipartisan effort six months ago? potentially, we will get it there before january 1. manus: let's see if we get something through the lame-duck. we have a couple of markets repricing fundamentally. equities higher. have a look a little bit back.
asia is ramping higher. it's about the rollout of the vaccine. that is taking into your left or right arm. asia up by .4%. let's not over dramatize the l.a. headline in terms of its market impact. the market impact is a divorced reality. what is repricing? speed thating at a some would say could even see some bond vigilantes. let's have a look at the bonkers. what you have -- bond curves. what do you have here is a narrative that any spike in the fed and that is the narrative. 152.67. the dollar bulls down. hsbc, the global head talks about structural change in the dollar and it will be driven by growth and you are going to see divergentvirgin --
dollar story come through. the aussie dollar off a two-year high. the crude futures in new york trading mirror to $45 a barrel. the key players of the opec-plus alliance our meeting today. focus onssions are to proposals for the gradual easing of production cut over several months. that is according to one delegate. get to julian lee. he gets to us now. normally, he is having breakfast in vienna. are we going to get an agreement? julian: are we going to get an agreement? it is looking more positive than it has done at any time since the beginning of the week. i think all the ministers were the dispute that
emerged between saudi arabia and the uae. i don't think anyone was expecting that it would be quite as severe as it was. the fact that they delayed the bigger opec-plus meeting until schedulem its original on tuesday shows-just how determined they are to reach a deal. they all remember what happened the russians when refused to accept a proposal from opec and the entire deal fell apart, which led to the production free-for-all in april and prices at one point very briefly turned negative. they don't want that kind of scenario to play out, so they have been working very hard and very aggressively over the last couple of days to reach a deal. annmarie: they certainly have been. there has been a drip effect. maybe that's because it's all
happening virtually. the market was expecting no supply in january, every, or march. they were expecting three more months of this deal lasting. if they start to gradually increase, even if it is incremental, do you think we could see a selloff? julian: it will depend what this deal looks like. there were certainly talk of a gradual easing of the output cuts. there is no clarity when that might begin, whether that would begin immediately in january or aether there would combination of a delay and then gradual easing so maybe it begins in february. that obviously would have less of an impact. i think there will be some relief in the market if, firstly, we get a deal, and secondly, if it is not 1.9 million barrels per day that is currently slated to come back
onto the market in january. will it be negative if there is a gradual easing that starts in january? maybe a little bit, but i think that there will also -- they will temper that with the fact that there -- that a deal has been done. manus: curious to get your opinion because you have tracked many of the cast of characters of this current board at opec. what did you make of this uae- saudi dispute and the apparent threat of his royal highness prince oman that he would -- salman, that he would resign his leadership? >> the dispute is a reflection of a number of things. it is partly about the uae having invested a lot of money in expanding its production capacity to 4 million barrels a
day now and looking at going beyond that in the near future. forced to accept a quota that really did not take account of that capacity largely because it was so new that they had not really been used. and i think that they are feeling that that is unfair and i think that has been compounded by the way that their oil minister was treated back in september when there was an opec , a virtual meeting of ministers, and the uae minister riyadh and he was the only minister who was not in his home country. he was sitting next to his saudi counterpart. he was very publicly told off for the uae's overproduction
over the months of july and august, and they contrast that with the way russia has been treated, so i think that fed into it, too. annmarie: quickly, i know this caught your eye. the u.s. importing the least amount of saudi crude's 1985. i know the demand is there in asia but if we see gradual uptick in supply, can the market actually absorb it? think it is difficult. one of the things opec has been struggling with is that even if demand picks out, there is a huge overhang of surplus stockpiles of both crude and refined products that built up earlier in the year and those have to be drawn down before we reach a point of market balance and that is one of the things they are concerned about. annmarie: julian lee, thank you so much, our bluebird in-house oil strategist. follow him and the team for their blog about that crucial
opec meeting. let's get a recap of the first word news. here is laura wright. mark: democratic leaders are throwing their support behind a stimulus plan. they see it as a foundation for a new round of talks with republicans and the white house. it is the first public retreat from the democrats much larger proposal for nearly $2.5 trillion of spending. france's morning it may veto a trade deal between the u.k. and the e.u. if it does not like the terms. chief negotiator, michel barnier, wanted to see part of the text before it was finished. some are voicing concern he might be giving too much away and leaving little time to scrutinize the deal. forcingroved a bill president hassan rouhani to force a nuclear inspection unless the u.s. lifts key sanctions. it's a blow to joe biden, giving his administration just weeks to
make a key breakthrough with tehran. the council made the decision which has been criticized by rouhani. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: laura wright, thank you so much. praisesp, paul krugman biden's economic team. we hear his thoughts for nominees as well as u.s. stimulus. the exclusive interview is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
economic team together, winning approval from political and business leaders. a nobel laureate spoke to bloomberg about the lineup, praising the competence and progressive credentials. an amazingly competent group of people. it is like night and day. was going to say something i should not. differenttotally universe of people in terms of knowing what they are doing and talking about. that i have to feel like a lot of them are overqualified for the positions they are in. is that they are a group that has very strong progressive credentials. never mind trump, think about yellen,im versus janet
peter orszag. compared with neera tanden, you are seeing a really significant more towards a much progressive centerleft orientation. anythinghey can do depend a lot on politics, particularly on the senate races in georgia. >> the politics obviously are going to be challenging here at least to get anything through congress. i'm curious. it seems like there were some pretty serious lessons that we could have learned from the pandemic and from how we not only responded here in the u.s. but other countries with regards to forming the fiscal stimulus to keep people -- keep money in people's pockets. i'm curious as to whether that sort of validates or vindicates the general idea here that the government involvement in the market is necessary if we are
going to have a functioning economy, not only when times are bad, but even when times are good. >> i would like to hope so. the thing to say is also about the biden team, you know, i believe we will have a brief, hopefully not too brief, period of euphoria underlying -- we are still in an economy which was only able to achieve full employment at very low interest rates. not very well designed deficits during from peers. the need for some kind of continuing fiscal stimulus over the medium-term and the need for lots of public investment of infrastructure, climate change, education, all of those things will remain so the case for a , pro-market,ivist
but also pro let's fill in where the market does not do it attitude for our government, i would like to think it was vindicated by events over the past few years including the pandemic. krugman, that was paul nobel, distinguished professor. the u.s. house has approved legislation that could lead to chinese companies being kicked off american exchanges. bill won bipartisan support and goes to president donald trump who is expected to sign it. we are joined by our executive editor for greater china into beijing. at the heart of this is of disapproval and refusal to let the organization in america that does this to audit these companies. will this change anything? will beijing start to loosen up rules? >> this dispute has been ongoing for the that are part of a 2017, the up until
chinese government and the pca pcaob, they have been doing some joint audits together. that totally broke down as the trump administration went on and the trade war got heated. the chinese, as recently as august, signaled they were ready to make some concessions to solve this issue so if you look at the market reaction, i think people are expecting some sort of resolution. manus: great to have you with us this morning. today, on the day, china the market because it's bluff. there's too trillion dollars worth of chinese adrs in the united states of america -- $2 trillion worth of chinese adrs in the united states of america. john: one of the main risks for the u.s. is you might see a flight to these companies from
new york to hong kong. american money would still be investing in these companies. they would just be listed in a different jurisdiction. see that trend start to play out so companies like alibaba, secondaryey have done listings in hong kong sort of in preparation, anticipation of this uncertainty. annmarie: what does this mean for the incoming biden administration, john? john: i think there's two ways to look at it. one is potentially this is something that they can hash out a resolution to, goodwill confidence building step for the new administration with beijing. the other thing is it underlines how much is at take and if things do not go well, just as manus was talking about, how much there is to lose for both sides. manus: it's interesting that in the past 24 hours, john, this bill has a partisan support and then you reflect back to biden and his op-ed in the new york times -- his interview.
saying it's not just back to where we were four years ago. overly to be careful too consensus build what bidens view on china will be. that is a risk may be we are under assuming. chancehere is almost no of the relationship going back to where it was four years ago. i do not think that is a possibility. going forward, i think china, economically, militarily, politically, is in a far stronger position than it used to be, and it has soda come to a point where it realized it has to take a different approach for this relationship to work. annmarie: the other thing, and manus brings up that new york times article, is joe biden talking about the fact that he wants an approach that is multinational. he wants to get u.s. allies on board instead of going tit for tat with beijing and washington.
is preparingchina for that kind of approach, john? john: i think it would be to china's disadvantage if that sort of alliance, that sort of unified front, were to form, and the chinese have been trying to make sure that does not happen. you can see that china has been trying to push forward this investment deal with the e.u. china has been reaching out to japan, to south korea, but at the same time, china has also been punishing the australians economically, and that's actually leading to sort of a coalescing of this alliance of countries trying to counterbalance chinese -- heft isnd that traveling south as well. it's not just china-u.s., china-europe, but it's china-australia as well and that could have some significant
dislocation going into 2021 as well. so this week, we saw the chinese foreign ministry official treat that sort of picture depicting an australian soldier holding a knife to an afghan child's throat, and immediately, you could see new zealand came out to express its concern, you had british lawmakers condemning it, you had the incoming national security advisor for president-elect biden to reading that, you know, america would stand by australia, so you can see that if that situation is not resolved, it leading into lots of other relationships. ding intog -- blee lots of other relationships. manus: john liu. coming up on the show, democrats back a bipartisan stimulus package after months of back and forth. we do it every day here on daybreak. europe, not middle east. it comes as the u.s. sees a
annmarie: 6:55 in the city of london. this is "daybreak europe." i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny in dubai. for me, this morning is waking up to seeing the u.s. having it deadliest day of covid. at the same time, the s&p 500 hitting yet again another all-time high. divergence. -- locking down are yet again. sometimes it feels like we are taking two steps forward -- i thought that yesterday with the united kingdom getting a vaccine -- and then you take a step back and face the reality. manus: and the reality of it is
that stimulus, pelosi stepping back for the first time publicly from the $2.4 trillion jumping off point she has and now coalescing with chuck schumer around $900 billion. how is this being repriced in markets? my favorite quote of the day we have been -- we have been interviewing alberto. he talked about the old bond vigilantes. therein lies the point. according to alberto, which is, you know, what happens? can we break -- can we pierce 1% on the bond yield? annmarie: the curves are steepening. he is saying it does not matter what goes on in terms of stimulus, in terms of u.s. growth, in terms of covid. it is the fed, and the fed is there to go back into the market when it is needed and that is why he does not think we will
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anna: good morning. welcome to "daybreak europe." i am anna edwards in london. the start of equity trading, just under one hour away. america's deadliest day. 2007reports more than hundred covid fatalities in a single day. germany extends its partial lockdown until january 10. another passing shot. the house of representatives backs a lot that could see chinese companies being