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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 3, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EST

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>> the world is desperate for yield. the world is desperate for income. >> with a vaccine inside, there is much hope. >> entrepreneurial america will come back. >> there is pent-up demand for getting out of the house. >> there is enormous stimulus that is yet to be spent. >> even though 2021 is supposed to be a good year, you may start off in a deep hole. >> certainly some support is going to be needed going forward. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
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thrilled you are with us, the simulcast, bloomberg radio coast-to-coast, and good morning on bloomberg television. the new york city christmas tree lighting tonight at rockefeller center. all of the worry we have talked about of this pandemic, death set a record level in the united states come breaking the april 29 level as well. jon, the markets speak. moments ago, euro out to new recent record strength. jonathan: a record high in the equity market, the unwelcome record of the pandemic. $1.21 53 on euro-dollar. once again, it is broad-based dollar weakness. you just wonder how uncovered it will this will make the ecb and how comfortable the move in euro-china will actually keep them. i think that is key, what happens broad-based for euro against other currencies. the i'm looking at
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bloomberg terminal here. you can see that on bloomberg radio right now. renminbi comes down as well, with an abrupt move. at all correlates together, and then there's this zombie, the gloom of the bond market. how do you correlate this to what we see in fixed income. 'ssa: the zombie-ness enthusiasm to buy credit even at high valuations. i want to paint a picture for you. the markets are not the economy. you've got m&a going gangbusters, job cuts we got this morning from 3m. what we have is the big getting bigger and cost cutting across the board, which hurts the lower income worker, certain aspects of the economy. so i am looking at this and wondering, structurally, what aspects are going to have a scarring impact down the line that may not be felt? tom: you wonder where we are going in terms of the stimulus
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debate, but certainly markets on the move. red and green we saw earlier in equity markets, and now we see it with green on the screen. futures up one, dow futures up just two points as well, nasdaq leading the way. one more observation, and i really got to go to the landscape of the united kingdom. i noticed that per capita, the united kingdom death right now exceed new york city at its worst back in april and may. there's a real agony over in the united kingdom. is it an agony of complete lockdown? is that where you are heading? jonathan: restrictions. we are sticking with the tearing system. i think this is the holding pattern for the vaccination period all the way to spring. the prime minister said that himself. tier three is very severe. looks like a lockdown. london is in tier two. this will be the holding pattern that this government keeps through the winter and into spring, even with vaccinations rolling out. there's a real worry in the u.k.
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government that if we have a vaccination, maybe some people will start to step back from compliance with social distancing and those kind of things. we could see those potentially through next week. tom: we will have more conversations driving forward on this pandemic. right now, an important conversation as we have spoken to other bulls. morris has been at bnp paribas, and they have constructed an interesting outlook on the market. daniel morris, you look for growth into 2021. frame the equity market at these record levels. daniel: i think it is as much looking but what is happening beneath the index level and what we are seeing between growth and value. equity markets are at record levels.
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nonetheless, we are coming out of a recession. the economy should be bigger in nominal terms at the end of next year and it is now, so that really suggests the stock market should continue to rise and continue to reach new highs. that isn't particularly surprising or worrisome. we are paying more attention to where we want to be allocated within that market because we think there are certainly going to be bigger diversions -- bigger divergences between different sectors, different styles than we have had in previous years. jonathan: we are pricing in 2021. when do we start pricing in 2022? daniel: perhaps we will impinge on the market at that point. with think about any potential for more significant legislative change. right now we will all be focused on what we a stimulus package, how big will it be and so on. at that point, you will still have had a relatively young recovery, so there still should be some gas in the tank at that point.
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? who knows? it might -- who knows? it might be another fear of inflation come about at this point we don't see any risks on the horizon. lisa: it is important because the future is what predicts the current gains in the stock market. it is a forward-looking indicator. we got to keep looking forward to see what gets what. i am looking right now at markets, where the big have gotten bigger and have gotten rewarded for getting bigger. now we are trying to see the small caps rally and catch up. at what point is this divergence too much to handle? can the big keep doing well and allow the small ones to catch up , or is this a fundamental divergence from the economy as it is right now? daniel: you are right to focus on the dominance of the big players driving that difference in the relative return to small caps, which is been quite disappointing in the u.s. for a
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couple years. small caps done quite well, continues to do well, and the way that you assume small caps should. if you analyze why that was, it really does come down to the big mega cap tech. there dominance made it most impossible for the small-cap stocks to outperform. at this point, given expectation for continued rotation into value, it should give a bit of a breather to small caps, and we also think this is where you need to be looking at stockpicking as opposed to index asset allocation because otherwise you are likely to be swamped in the future, again by the dominance of the big tex, and you could miss out on the potential that we think is still there in small caps. jonathan: do you want to be swamped by the dominance of big banks in europe if you buy the index? daniel: well, it is certainly
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what you have seen recently with an increased in interest rates. point had about 25 basis swing in 10 year treasury yields. you've had that much in the u.k. and other parts of europe, so certainly that has benefited the with thissector better-than-expected economic outlook. what ever estimates you had for nonperforming loans, those should come down. that is clearly beneficial for bank balance sheets. for now, the news is better. the market is focusing on that. we think that is also going to continue for a bit. to aall of this comes down belief, and we are shellshocked by the pandemic and the rest of it. as you mentioned at the beginning of this conversation, a belief in a better nominal gdp. is this market price for the nominal gdp now, or is it priced for some wish that is out there
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one year, two years, or three years out? daniel: we don't think so. if you look at forward earnings estimates, even two years out relative to where they wear pre-pandemic, it is not like the 10%, 20%are predicting earnings growth relative to those levels. they are still below the levels you would have thought at the end of 2019. so the trajectory is positive. the slope is positive. that is what the markets are thinking about. but at the same time, that .2 point two-- that years out, we think there's going to continue to be a recovery, and it is the marginal change that matters the most. lisa: you also talked about the importance of where you allocate your money. where are you allocating your money? are you jumping on the emerging markets train? daniel: we are overweight emerging markets, and we have added to japan.
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within developed markets, it is u.s. and japan, with a preference for value and also for small caps. so we think there's certain parts of the market that are going to do better, certainly. jonathan:jonathan: when everyone starts saying the same thing, when do you start to feel like this is priced? daniel: that is certainly what is in the back of my mind. this view that we all face short-term challenges, but the medium-term outlook is rosy, i think you see that reflected in the consensus view that the dollar will continue to weaken which is also our view. that is why we need to ask ourselves what is going to challenge that view that is so widely shared. it's the right question, and it is one we are certainly asking ourselves. jonathan: dan, great to catch up, sir. same the at what point do you sit around a table over zoom or whatever and start saying, everyone is saying the same thing?
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it doesn't mean it is wrong. i just wonder where the edges going to be. everyone is overweight em, value, cyclicals over defensive come a weaker dollar, treasury yields limited in their little break outcome of that has been the story repeatedly over the last few weeks. tom: you have just defined a bull market, where there is a rationalization each step of the way. frankly, bear markets are the same way. but in the heart of a major bull market, this is what you get into. the one thing i would say that is underestimated here is corporations will adapt and adjust to the facts they are handed. you see that with 3m cost reductions today 3% of employment. that has been widely anticipated. what took so long? there will be many more 3m-like announcements. jonathan: that is not the kind of decision you make when we are at the top.
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that's what people would say. you don't make job cuts at the top. you make cuts at the bottom. this is the start of something explosive. i don't. it is a strange time. good morning to you all. kit juckes of socgen at the bottom of the hour. looking forward to that. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. the first word news, i ritika. house speaker nancy pelosi and senate democratic leader chuck schumer are now backing a bipartisan stimulus plan. they see the proposal from house and senate lawmakers as the foundation for a new round of negotiations. the plan calls for $900 billion in spending, less than what democrats want, but an increase from the number being floated by senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. the u.s. has had its deadliest day yet in the pandemic, according to johns hopkins university. the number of fatalities went over 2700 for the first time.
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meanwhile, hospitalizations set a new mark, going over 100,000. the u.s. has we strip to travel visas for millions of members of china's communist party. members andlow their families to obtain visas for one month. previously they were able to obtain tenure visas. opec and its allies are making progress in talks on oil output cuts. that increases the chances that today's meeting can salvage a deal after failed negotiations earlier this week. one delegate tells bloomberg discussions are now focusing on proposals for gradual easing of output cuts over several months. ups trying to keep from being overwhelmed by the holiday rush. ups is temporarily restricting some packages it takes from big
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retailers such as nike, gap, and l.l. bean. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> china will not stop if we step back from working with the world. if the rules of the future are becauseor are suspended
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of the way that relationship evolves, america will be stronger, not weaker. jonathan: a key topic going into a new administration and a new year. that was the former u.s. treasury secretary speaking live on bloomberg tv and radio. for our audience worldwide, this ." "bloomberg surveillance here's the price action as we count you down to jobless claims 12 minutes away. equity markets, all-time highs. highs of the year on the s&p 500. highs of the year on euro-dollar. $1.2147 on20 17 -- euro-dollar. the highs respond with the market, and the lows correspond with the lows of the market. in the bond market, unchanged on , 0.936%.
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more economic data 10 minutes away. tom: we will have that for you. michael mckee, of course. for different claims report after some of the criticisms on the data over the last couple of days. right now we want to digress. withl tennenbaum with us oliver wyman. what we want to do is give you people that own the domain they live in. that is mr. tannenbaum. he is a partner at oliver wyman. good morning. i know jon and lisa want to migrate to china, as we heard from jack lew moments ago. i want to ask you about an assassination in iran. this is serious stuff, and the biden adminstration comes into an iran-u.s. relationship that is not trump iran frankly or bouma -- trump iran, or frankly obama iran. what does that look like?
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it is important to note that while the biden adminstration is preparing to clearly take office in january, we still have 49 days of a trump administration and trump allies acting around the world. i think you are certainly seeing in thetrying to box u.s. from restarting the iran deal. iran needs to agree to reenter the deal given that they derive no benefit out of the last one. it is creating complexities in the region with some of the attacks in the last couple of weeks of iranian government officials that have been assassinated. it only further creates distance between the jcpoa, iran, and the other allies that are party to the deal. tom: i am distracted here looking at the new slow right now, and i think just because of the news we have to migrate to china, although there is so much
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we have to talk about. what can we do in your area financially on hong kong? should we expect or demand that bank of america, j.p. morgan or the others do some action on liberties and hong kong? dan: if you look at what the u.s. has done under the hong kong autonomy act that was passed over the summer, many global banks in the market, even those operating in mainland china, have close the accounts of people at carrie lam and others. there was article over the weekend about how carrie lam was paid in cash because she can't access her bank accounts, or credit cards. so everything is in hong kong dollars. hong kong has one legitimate trump card left, no pun intended, within the list -- within the last 49 days. by october of 2021, the u.s. government has to designate
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banks found to be enabling the enactment of the national secured a law and hong kong, so you have a possibility that some chinese banks could in up being designated for continuing to provide banking services to some of these people like carrie lam and others. that obviously would drive an even bigger wedge between the u.s.-china dynamic right now. jonathan: they've got to pick a side, but this brings us something so important. we have been talking about the fx market all morning and about dollar weakness and cyclical issues. this is a. structural issue many people think -- this is a structural issue. many people think we are about to see the end of the dollar as the global currency. carrie lam come the leader of hong kong, can't get a bank account. carrie lam has to be paid in cash. can you speak to that, the power still of the u.s. dollar? daniel: if you saw what the u.s. did with hong kong, originally
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the hong kong monetary authority came out saying, you cannot comply with u.s. sanctions and hong kong, only to backpedal a few months later, where you are ok if you need to comply. there's never been a conflict of law issue like this. there's been boycotts on restrictions against cuba from the u.s., but a u.s.-china issue is different. and again, we've heard threats over the years dating back to when i was at the treasury into thousand seven that the dollar was going to end as the global trade currency related to eu and iran activity, and it has never quite happened. i am not sure how this will shake out, but i think certainly, the u.s. dollar and the need to trade and transact in the dollar drives a lot of the action by these global banks from china ups the ante their side, which they really haven't done. lisa: i will just point out that
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yu's point comes as the strongesthens so the since june 2018 against the dollar. it raises the question of when the pboc steps and starts to take note of the strength of its currency and take action. daniel: there's another variable that needs to be brought up. just yesterday, the past how they build that the senate has not passed that would require chinese based companies on the u.s. list of exchanges to apply with u.s. audit standards. so you have another issue potentially that could drive a further wedge between need the u.s. and china. jonathan: dan, i've got to jump in because we only have a minute left. forgive me. why did this take so long? why were these companies ever allowed to list on u.s. exchanges without adhering to u.s. auditing rules? why did this take so long? daniel: i think the political
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nature of how to engage with certain chinese companies knowing what the chinese government to view is on essentially opening the books to foreign auditors and their domestic companies have always been a challenge. all of the china pressure, whether it was related to the huighur treatment in china, hong kong, other issues, is weighing in. jonathan: thank you. i think that conversation underlines something so important. whenever we talk about the u.s. dollar, the fx market, we are talking about cyclical issues, rate differentials, monetary policy. just because the dollar is getting weaker, it is losing its dominance in the global economy. it is a completely different conversation. tom: i've heard it since before i could shave.
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i am only shaving twice a week now. but that conversation has been out there forever. these are ebbs and flows in the markets. "theyou should watch, crown." your grandfather is in it. jonathan: i would love to watch "the crown." coming up, kit juckes. ♪ it's down to the wire,
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the team's been working around the clock. we've had to rethink our whole approach. we're going to give togetherness. logistically, it's been a nightmare. i'm not sure it's going to work. it'll work. i didn't know you were listening. wannit's timeight and for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. it allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch, push ups, aero squat. it inflates in 30 seconds. aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to that's a-e-r-o
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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio. we have some right -- we have some data for you which means michael mckee joins us. jobless claims. what if we got? -- what have we got? michael: we are waiting for the numbers because everything comes out on the internet. right now where we are is 712,000, which is a significant change, much lower than the last week, which was initially reported at 778,000. we are waiting for the numbers in terms of the revisions. 5,520,000,claims down from 6,071,000. there is revision. 6,089,000. a significant drop of about half a million. claims, 787,000.
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of 70,000 jobless claims, which is a bit of a surprise. i have to mention this. year islem we have this the fact the numbers are so large they do not seem to be accurate. the government accountability office put out a study that said "the number of claims has not been an accurate estimate of the number of individuals claiming benefits during the pandemic because of backlogs in processing and historic volume of claims, among other data issues." they are saying these numbers are too high and we should see something much smaller. it is still a lot of people out of work. still a big problem as we come to the end of the year. we cannot take the numbers too seriously as actual numbers. tom: this is important.
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i do not mean the jobless claims. i mean the fact that you are on jon ferro's property yesterday and not our property. we were jealous of our michael mckee time. what is the real number? what is the michael mckee adjusted claim statistic? michael: i spend a lot of time working on this, and i will tell you i do not have any idea. the gao did not say they had a precise figure, they just say there is so much duplication in the numbers, there is a lot of fraud, and so may applications that have not been finished they do not know. they know it is high but they do not think it is 712,000. lisa: then to these numbers matter? can we rely on them for anything? michael: you can rely on the fact that they are large and it will factor into the thinking in washington. according to these numbers, and even if they are wrong, as of november 14, there were 20 million people still getting benefits of some sort.
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you have 10nd million. there it is still a lot of people that will follow the roles if they do not get that extension -- that will fall off the roles if they do not get their benefits. tom: we used to look at the four week average and move on. we will have much more tomorrow on jobs days. really important, the first november look at the data. perfect time to speak to kit jukes. wonderfully folded into the political economies of the world's financial system. let me start with the why. why is the euro appreciating? kit: i think the euro is appreciating because the dollar is falling, because the real interest rate advantage the dollar built up against the euro since 2011 has collapsed, and as the global economy starts to
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look forward to a better tomorrow with vaccines, we cannot have the euro this undervalued against the dollar. most of the move has to come from a weaker dollar, but that relationship is wrong and you can see it in so many ways. capital flows are beginning to unwind. we need to end up at 1.30 for euro-dollar somehow. to 1.30. the road where's the pain threshold? is it the pace? the level? kit: it is the pace and how it happens. pace because you effect exporters and also inflation. philip lane wanted to put the brakes on when we moved up to 1.20 in the summer. that worked. we can go back without much pain. you'll be worried again because the europeans do not want anymore disinflation. then the way it is made up.
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what matters for the economy is going to be the trade weight in europe, not just euro-dollar. the biggest unit in a trade-weighted euro is the chinese yuan, which you've been talking about. if the chinese let their currency appreciate, you can get to 1.30 much faster. it is likely they will not let it get much further than we are now common that is why the whole thing has to happen slowly. on the others have all of this, the euro, when it was trading 1.05, 1.15, was very artificially weak as a result of ecb policies in 2014 and 2015. we have to remember that. it is down because of quantitative easing and the negative interest rates under mario draghi. jonathan: the only reason i am talking about the chinese currency is because you talk about it. you taught me everything i know about fx. i am looking at euro china. five days without a move on euro
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yuan. i understand the previous week's was about a broad-based dollar weakness. the last couple of days china started to break out against the euro. how do you think this sets us up next week for the ecb? kit: it means they will continue to be dovish. i think they will say something about euro. we have broken above 1.20. i do not think we can go quickly to 1.25. i think we have to stop your because there is no doubt the easy -- we have to stop here. there is no doubt the ecb wants to do more. the problem is they do not have that much room in terms of policy maneuver from here. what you get by getting rates more negative? what you get with more quantitative easing? what europe needs is easier fiscal policy. they do not have the magic
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bullet they had in 2014 of let's by all the bonds and cut rates to negative so you have to put your money somewhere else. that is not available. they will push back and resist and they will come out with more accommodation of some kind. lisa: this is exactly where wanted to go, the question of the efficacy of central bank policy on fx moves. have central banks and their policies lost the same efficacy for manipulating -- i do not want to use that word -- for affecting fx rates, or are we looking at the economy determining where we are seeing currencies valued? kit: i think we are going back to a world where if we all have zero interest rates, and let's call them zero bond yields, all countries with big parentheses will end up with overvalued currencies. they will not have an incentive to recycle those.
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what we have done is played with that, changed it around with rates. japanese,d to get with abenomics managed to get a very weak currency. all of this becomes less effective. if you want to model for how is not so bad, dollar-yen went from under 80 two over 120. as we have eroded the relative interest rates, where as we started doing what the japanese have been doing, we are only backup 104. in a sense, the japanese are keeping their currency competitive. longer than i thought they would because of their aggression in terms of what they have done. the central banks are not powerless, but the problem is you cannot fight the current in the same way. what was so successful was i
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moved my rates relative to yours. we all have the same rates now. lisa: the race to the bottom. there is a question for the ecb you're seeinghat in the euro and if it is being valued, if they cannot do that much to stave off the strengthening, why not jump on this consensus trade? is that your view? kit: my view is the consensus trade has to happen. becauses trade works when you change a regime, let's call this the regime of post-covid zero rates, the consensus tends to be quite good once the regime change is clear. the danger is that consensus starts to make money, everybody gets on board, all of the doubters start realizing what is happening, and then you cannot stop it. if i'm a central bank my only goal is to slow this down as much as possible.
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jonathan: great wheat -- tom: great we talked fx with you and i can look at history made as we go back to the 1980's. i have to note a small soccer match. ferro called today darby. i cannot believe arsenal is on the edge. what is the chance against the tots? kit: better sides than against mediocre sides. puts some steel into the boots of the arsenal players and they realize it is their duty to look after the happiness of poor people like me. lisa: you're just trolling us. thanks a lot. tom: jon ferro, jumping on the importance of this game in london. jonathan: we have to let him go, but let me say thanks to kit.
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kit shoots of socgen -- kit juckes of socgen. this is north london darby between -- you pick a side between -- north london resident ckes has picked arsenal. over the years arsenal has come out on top in league position. competitive.r more doing a lot better than lisa's arsenal. lisa: really? tom: that helped a lot. grinlisa into the ground. does there need to be a coaching switch at arsenal? lisa: i just know i picked a losing team again after all of the new york teams. tom: you picked me and john. that is enough said. [laughter] jonathan: it is our anniversary
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coming up. when we do this, we are only doing this for you. audience, just for you. tom: there is an audience? jonathan: i hope. i think it is tomorrow. there's a picture of me throwing a punch at tom somewhere. from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president trump is expected to sign a bill that could lead to chinese companies getting kicked off american stock exchanges. the measure calls for u.s. regulators to review the company's financial results. chinese firms will have at least three years to comply. it may be president trump's last chance to shape the fed. the senate is expected to confirm the nomination of christopher wallace to serve on the federal reserve board.
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is the research director at the st. louis fed. angela merkel says a partial lockdown will be extended for three weeks. bars in movie theaters will remain closed until january 10, then government leaders will meet to reassess. the partial lockdown has not slowed the coronavirus spread in germany. it is another blow to the world's second-largest money manager. -- in taiwan government pension and insurance assets. that is due to weak performance. vanguard has been warning its agent strategy. france putting pressure on eu negotiators not to make any more trade concessions to the u.k. the french are warning they could lead to a brexit deal between the eu and the u.k. if they do not like the terms. negotiators are trying to reach an agreement within the next few days. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is the golden age of fraud. prior to this, companies under clout because of evidence would
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begin to underperform the market rather dramatically pure now that is not the case. in many cases these companies outperform the market until the companies admit to wrongdoing. that is a new phenomenon. jonathan: the legendary jim chinos talking to bloomberg front row. more of that interview available on the bloomberg terminal. from london and new york, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro counting you down to the market opening about 42 minutes away. we beget -- will be catching up with david bailey's on "the open" in about 10 minutes. tom: that is amazing. i think it will be great to see david bailin optimistic on the market despite all of the gloom today. guest, they are so optimistic on 2021. try to look at what is happening in front of our faces.
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lisa: the anniversary is tomorrow. save it for tomorrow. divorce lawyer is on line three? i will take him after the show. jon ferro off to his other property. michael mckee schedule to make an appearance there as well. right now scheduled to make an appearance is barry ritholtz, .loomberg opinion a wonderful, must listen podcast. barry ritholtz with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. of a, you have a gem letter on the fraud that is these outlooks out 12 months. you and i have lived this for decades. would you explain the marketing nature of these outlooks? barry: sure. just ask yourself how many strategists had for their 2020 outlook a global pandemic, one million deaths, a 34% market
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crash, and faang and technology stocks doubling and tripling? the short answer is none of them. say that is aple tell event, that is a natural disaster, that is unprecedented is probably the word of the year for 2020. the unprecedented comes along all of the time. we have 30 to new highs in the market. unprecedented, except as ray dalio loves to point out. unprecedented means you have not seen it in your lifetime but it very likely happened before. int go back to the pandemic 1918. this is not remotely unprecedented. when i look at how we construct outlooks, and i will give credit to firms who tried to write more cosmic thought pieces to help us line up our
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thinking about having the courage tone equities, are those pieces still out there or are we now in the game of estimating where the dow will be? barry: a lot of those pieces have migrated from big wall street research shops because of the compression of missions and transactional fees. they have migrated elsewhere. they have migrated to podcast, blogs, deeper think pieces that are designed to provoke a conversation, some thought, some analysis, as opposed to here is our outlook and hear the traits you should give me now. tom: well said. lisa: it is challenging to trade a market when you cannot predict the unpredictable, even if you look in the past 100 years. there is a question how effective is it? look at the consensus trade to look at where people are positioned and figure out what is rich or less highly valued
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joint isn't that useful on some level -- less highly valued. isn't that useful on some level? barry: sort of. not really. it is useful to let you know what is already happened, but markets are about what is going to happen. while we certainly agree trend consistency,have a what is going up tends to keep going up, what is going down keeps going down, that is good for a couple weeks or months. it is not good for quarters or years cured the question is are you a long-term investor with a timeline looking out a few years , or are you part of what is happening now? what is the point of active management if these outlooks are not necessarily predictive or useful in any capacity? why not just go into an index fund and leave your money and not shift around? that is what a lot of people have been doing, which is why you have seen an increase in
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consolidation in the asset management business. is that the takeaway? you cannot outperform these markets actively? barry: let's get more granular and more nuanced. i will slightly modify what you say. most of theperson time is not being able to outperform the index. that does not believe they are not certain active managers who have consistently outperformed the index. we know their names because they are so few and far between. there are traders who regularly beat their benchmarks. there are lots of people who are doing this. you cannot is identify them until after the fact, and the rise of factor investing has come about because rather than engaging in individual stock selection -- don't get me wrong, there are people who are fantastic about that.
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think of will dan off at fidelity or joe greenblatt. i can give you guys were spectacular at it, but that is out of 11,000 hedge fund managers that are not. tom: we are out of time. for bloomberg radio, this is extremely important. -- barry ritholtz is n, cutting-edge on mandaloria where did you get grogu? that is the most coveted thing going that you got baby yoda. radio cannotbarry: see this but i am holding up the box from target. i ordered a couple of weeks ago and it just came like magic. lisa: we are back to the shopping channel. the most coveted toys the season, baby yoda with barry ritholtz.
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what an interesting day. quiet aboutjon's this pandemic overwhelms all. lisa: that is the discomfort you are dealing with. markets near all-time highs. my take away today is the jobless numbers are so cloudy they do not matter. accept high to levels of unemployment every week. tom: red and green on the screen. s&p futures down. a constructive tone in the nasdaq. 1.2150, just off the recent surge 45 minutes ago. one of the conversations of the morning was charles cantor, who sliced and diced salesforce and slack. he was fascinating on the why of the transaction. we will delve deeper with slack's chief executive officer
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at 5:00 tonight. stay with us through the morning on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends
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are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. ♪ jonathan: from new york and
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london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the opening bell starts now with equity futures near all-time highs. we begin with the big issue. america's deadliest day of the pandemic so far. fatalities and hospitalizations hitting records. officials warning of tougher times before mass vaccinations can begin. december andy is january and february are going to be rough times. i believe they will be the most difficult time in the public health of this nation, largely because of the stress it is going to put on our health care system. jonathan: state and local officials implement more restrictions across the country, including los angeles going into lockdown, ordering residents to stay home as the city approaches a tipping point. >> my message cannot be simpler. it is time to cancel everything. if it is not essential, do not do it c


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