tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 4, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. >> good morning. it is 6:00 a.m. in the city of london i am annmarie hordern. breakthrough or break down? roadblock ashit a fresh demands.of the s&p 500 slips late in the session in a report of supply chain obstacles for pfizer's
vaccine. finding a compromise. agrees to slowly add more oil next year after days of an stoxx. the saudi arabian energy miss mr. process excruciating. happy friday. it is excruciating for some of those journalists who stayed up late for that press conference. look at where we trade friday morning. the s&p 500 a bit over concerns roll outow pfizer will that vaccine. we are pushing a little higher this morning on the futures. is this durable? what stands out is a record in the u.s., a grim record of high infections as well as hospitalizations. hospitalizations at the highest rate we have seen the entire time this pandemic. with rates increasing, that means more lockdowns of economies in cities and states.
gavin newsom in california warning california they could be next. the labor market, we will get a read on today. the november jobs report will come out today. let's take a look at brent crude, testing $50 a barrel, 1.9 percent higher. you had the opec plus meeting yesterday. brexit talks, we are in the -- they were in the verge of a breakthrough until negotiations hit a last-minute snag. how serious is the u.k. backlash over these demands coming from the side of the eu? >> that is a difficult question to answer because the action over the past 24 hours has been hectic and we have had conflicting signals. a lot of this is the optics that come with a deal. it needs to be seen and perceived as being difficult. last night, the u.k. government
briefed there had been new elements brought over to the table that they were not expecting. this was becoming a problem for the talks. the europeans are denying this, saying nothing new has been brought to the table. it is simply that talks have been stuck. this came 24 hours after the french hinted the europeans need to negotiate from a position of strength. they should not give too much away. what i would say is if you take this into account and what it adds up to is there has not been that breakthrough needed for a level playing field. many of the people i speak to tell me the only way this is going to get resolved is a phone call between the prime minister and the french president, emmanuel macron. that has not happened yet and hinting to a potential block in those talks. annmarie: which of course u.k. gdp, but of a useful bargaining chip when it
comes to the french. do i walk in here monday morning and do we have an agreement? >> i would love to be able to answer that question. to know whether we can sleep or not over the weekend, but it is very unclear on that front. you need to really focus on -- purely because he is in london. we are expecting him to come back to brussels. there could be two scenarios. one in which he decides there is enough to go ahead with a potential deal, to brief the eu ambassadors and take that to the european leaders. if he does not do that, that means we are far away from a deal and more talks are needed. what i would stress and i am being reminded of is even if we do get to this point by monday there is a deal with david frost, this is a technical deal. this will have to be approved by european leaders.
that is a political decision that may take us to the european summit next week. get some rest before your next 48 or 72 hours. maria and brussels, thank you. joining us is the head of investment strategy at our nbc rnbc investment strategy. >> if we look at the impact of very rudimentary deal, the impact of such a deal on the economy over the next 15 years would mean the economy would be smaller by about 6.5% than it would have been had we stayed in a single market. for no deal, the economy would about 9.5%.y from that point of view, not much difference really.
if we do have a deal, it would be a basis on which to build on. it would be something that both regions could rely on in order to resolve inevitable differences. years, months of acrimony. istainly a to mentor he deal better and we should get that compared to no deal. in terms of the impact on the economy, there's a lot of discussion but less discussion about what is in the deal and it is going to be a very basic deal if we have one. annmarie: that is a good point in terms of the impact to the economy. what about the impact to financial markets if there is no deal? is it going to wreak havoc? is a positivet for financial markets as they are positioned for some kind of deal to come through. you would expect weakness in the
pound, 5-7%. suffernomy would initially, particularly at a time when the economy is already so weak. for this year is a contraction of 11%. if you put an additional challenge on top of this, with covid, a very difficult winter. annmarie: i want to ask about what is going on with the pound, floating around the 135 level. it is down versus the euro, which is a telling cross for the brexit story. does that trend for euro pound continue even without a deal? so again, without a deal, you would expect weakness all around for the pound. if we do get a deal, we would expect a small rebound. again, a lot has been discounted interms of positive outlook
the currency already. -- to the downside at this stage. annmarie: so potentially more downside, less on the upside. what about u.k. equities? what does this mean for the ftse 100? >> much like the currency has deal,nted in a potential u.k. equities have really lagged over the last four years since the referendum. there one of the worst performers in the world. -- they are one of the worst performers in the world. valuations are very far from their historical averages. so we recently upgraded the u.k. equities to a market weight position. very difficult year this year. many companies had to slash dividends. we think maybe next year
dividends will be reinstated. in maybe not in the first quarter but this is a one year view. if you take this view, by the end of the year, the economy will have started to adjust to this new reality. discountsstock market usually six month ahead of time, what might happen, we think it is worth having some exposure to u.k. equities and portfolios. -- in portfolios. annmarie: i am looking year to date, the ftse 100 is down 14%, one of the worst in terms of indices across europe. i want to get your sense on the stimulus package that poland and hungary potentially are going to veto. you think at the end they will capitulate and come in line? ofyes, so this is a case negotiations to the last minute. i think a compromise will be found. remember, these two countries have received a lot of eu funds
over the last -- well, two years. if they veto this package, they are in effect shooting themselves in the foot. they will not receive funds. we dothey might be -- think there will be a compromise. there might be some adjustment in terms of warding but this rescue package we believe will go through one way or another. there is a lot of conviction it is important. it is angela merkel's achievement, it is her legacy. she will fight very hard for it, and our view. rbc wealthrom management, she stays with us. thank you for joining us. laura wright has your first word news. >> laura -- pumping an extra 500,000
barrels a day from january, it comes after almost a week of negotiations that exposed a rift at the heart of the cartel. ministers will hold monthly consultations to decide on the next step. ryanair has ordered 75 versions of boeing 737 max. the transaction is the biggest in two years for the plane model. it comes as a vote of confidence after boeing grounded the max for 20 months, following two deadly crashes. recoverye faith in the of the industry. if anything, relative to early productions -- projections we made with respect to recovery, developed with potential global distribution, if anything, accelerates our view of recovery. laura: denmark is to stop
offering new oil explorations in the north sea as part of a goal to become fossil fuel free. the country is the european produceriggest crude and says oil output will end by 2050. the decision will cost about 13 billion krona. this is bloomberg. laura wright in london, thank you so much. coming up, as the u.s. grapples with record coronavirus cases, president-elect biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask for 100 days. just 100 days, not a lifetime. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> my inclination, the first day i am inaugurated, is to say i am going to as the public for 100 days to mask. just 100 days. not forever, just 100 days. i think we will see a significant reduction if that occurs. with vaccinations and maxing -- masking, to drive down numbers considerably. bidenie: president-elect in mask wearing. it this comes as the u.s. continues to see hospitalizations and deaths from the pandemic. the s&p slipped amid a dow jones report that pfizer scaled-back vaccine production targets this year after difficulty securing
materials. a spokesperson released a statement saying the scale up of the raw material supply chain took longer than expected. for more, our bloomberg intelligent senior analyst and director of research joins us over the phone. good morning to you. this news in pfizer paints a picture it is going to be a bumpy road to get the vaccine out into the public. in terms of the raw materials, -- is this video syncretic to pfizer or does it show a problem other companies are going to grapple with? >> the first thing to say is this thing about the 50 million doses being available in 2020 was known for quite a while. i think that is important to highlight. pfizer made the change to its promise several weeks back. but we never knew what the issue was. it highlights it is something to do with the availability of the ingredients. and of course it can affect any
company, vaccine production is a complex process. you need several ingredients, just like any other drug. we have heard many executives say you have to make sure your manufacturing is up to scratch. this highlights something we have to watch out for. annmarie: what about the modernist study? study? at -- moderna looking at some of the headlines, it says the vaccine -- potential for durable immunity. >> it is one step forward. ands based on a short paper the new england journal of medicine, very short meaning two pages. they are data as following subjects they had in the phase one trial. looking at immune durability. a basic analysis of antibodies shows 119 days after the first
injection, people still had pretty high levels of antibodies. we do expect that to go down. the thing they need to show down is that thing called immune memory and that is coming soon. annmarie: you know as well as i do the financial markets are bullish on this vaccine coming into play. what are the biggest risks to the downside of the vaccine narrative? >> the equation left ahead of us is a very complex one we need to solve to get out of this pandemic. people taking shots in their arms, getting the vaccine disturbed did and not wasting so many of the doses because obviously they perish if they are in the wrong place. people coming back for their second shots. manufacturing going perfectly well. you put these in an equation and you get something that is a lot to herdn easily getting immunity. so i think people have to temper their enthusiasm a bit. annmarie: you did a q&a with
bloomberg opinion and you were asked if you would take the vaccine because of whether it is safe. what is your take? >> vaccines tend to show their worst side effects if they have any within the first couple of months of the dosing. the very rare side effects can occur any time during the vaccine program. i'm confident with the data we have heard so far there is no major issue, at least near term. annmarie: president-elect biden said he would take it in public, stills predators sir -- with us. i look at the vaccine narrative. pushing up the markets. is it durable? california may go back into lockdown. hospitalization is at a record in the u.s. do you still want to be overweight u.s. equities? >> yes, we do.
it is going to be a difficult winter. bitu.s. opened up a little with the thanksgiving holidays and there is probably going to be some repercussions, further repercussions and terms of infection rates. here in europe, we are looking at their experience and anticipating what might happen after we relaxed some of the rules ahead of christmas. there is no doubt the winter is going to be difficult. though thereeven are implementation issues and doubts and difficulties, this point to as potential recovery in the spring and summer in a way no vaccine would not. we do think the prospects are better with the vaccine. it is going to help. we saw back in the summer that the u.s. economy really snapped back into shape quite quickly.
it will suffer through the winter, but it is a very resilient economy so yes, we do advocate and overweight and global equities in general for 2021. -- in global equities in general for 2021. with think it is going to be the asset class -- annmarie: the u.s. economy is rebounding, but j powell points out more than 10 million americans are out of work every the november report expected to record the smallest gain in seven months. are these risks still not big enough to maybe want to pull back a little bit? possible we will have some volatility. when we say overweight equities, we do not expect equities to move up in a straight line. but if you have a one-year view, we would say make sure you have
a position and build in this position in weakness -- on weakness if weakness arrives. annmarie: you still buy this massive move into vallow -- vla ue? >> -- value? >> we think you should have some exposure to value because value has underperformed. perhaps high-quality financials would make sense in a portfolio. we think there is value in particular in health care. some selective industrial have some which benefits from long-term growth trends, can be of interest. annmarie: thank you for joining us this friday morning. the head of investment strategy at rbc wealth management.
annmarie: 6:20 five in the city of london. this is "daybreak europe." have hit record lows for the second time this year. investors are pouring money into risky debt. our investors just not worried some of these companies may end up having to fall into bankruptcy? how sustainable are these types of gains? investors are confident the default cycle will be much more mild than we have been expecting. part of this is fueled by the
vaccine progress. that will help save some of these companies. things that at one point were declared dead, from cruise line operators to airlines, those are the types of lawns we are seeing benefit from this rally in junk bonds. it is not just investors that are confident, it is s&p 500 as well. rating companies have pulled back in their estimates for defaults next year. we have to keep this in mind when we look at the rally in the low yields we are seeing in junk bonds. despite the fact that there are expectations for pickup and growth, despite the fact there are inflation and -- expectations, u.s. treasury yields cannot breach 1%. which means high-yield assets are attractive. annmarie: speaking of the fed, if there were put pullback in support for corporate debt, would that make the environment less favorable for high-yield bonds?
>> when steve mnuchin made the announcement, it barely moved the market at all. a lot of portfolio managers we have been speaking with have not used much anyway. if it does have an effect, it will be mild. this arc it cannot already hold up on its own. plane devil'st advocate. this does mean high-yield is not attractive. they are commending you going to investment grade. annmarie: coming up, oil optimism. crude getting a boost. $.93 higher. opec with a critical agreement on -- this is bloomberg. ♪ it's down to the wire,
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job report. finding a compromise. opec plus agrees to slowly add more oil next year after 10 stocks. the saudi arabian energy ms. mr. called the process quote excruciating. good morning to you. 6:30. happy friday. let's look at the trade this morning. are the gains durable? the market a little on edge as we await the november payrolls report, the last of the year. up moreasian benchmarks than 0.5%. s&p futures up zero point 2%. we did have a little bit of a decline yesterday over concerns about pfizer and how they are going to tap the raw materials needed for that vaccine. oil on a tear. we are flirting with $50 a barrel. this comes after that deal. the pound, 134. 62. yesterday, we were so close to
135. michel barnier heading back to brussels. oil, extending gains after opec-plus reached an agreement to ease production cuts. this comes after days of tent negotiations. the group will be adding 500,000 barrels a day of crude. the russian prime minister said oil will be kept under review with month the consultations of members. in positivectoring and negative factors. the magnitude of the adjustment at this point is limited to 0.5 million barrels per day. now is a chief oil analyst. good morning to you. i want to start with the market and then we will get into some of the politics. 500,000 barrels a day is not a lot. two very share will be
large carriers, basically. the market seems to be absorbing it. the base case when everyone -- that everyone was pricing in his they would hold on to we were, no supply for three months. wise crude higher this morning? >> i think that is exactly what has changed over the course of the last two weeks or so. remember when you were talking about no extension, in early november? brent was sub $40. demand, the renewed log downs at that time, that was in the driving seat. what has emerged is how strong asian demand is. asian demand is roofing right now. are back or higher than 2019 levels. it is not just china, india is really roaring back after the covid crisis. japan and korea are doing very
well as well. i think that is the critical thing. asian buyers on a binge. that happened before the opec meeting. oil prices got an uplift as well, almost $10, right? angst definitely changed. producerstern oil sent 88% of their crew to asia. five absolutely will be absorbed in the market very easily. they are still being defensive. i think they could have put more in the market and it would have gotten absorbed, but they are being defensive. yet being cautiously optimistic about demand and they are going to test the waters very carefully. annmarie: we see those risks this morning with gavin newsom of california saying potentially california will have to go back to a day at home order. i asked the french at the press
conference about whether they are going to taper paris last night, i asked him is the point of the monthly meeting to keep traders on edge, to take the market ouching like hell? >> we can tweak upward, we can tweak it downward. addressingbout uncertainty. if you have an uncertain that is why central bankers meet every month. that is why tweaking happens at all levels. this is a grand arrangement. this is a grand commitment. saying this is about addressing uncertainty. many in the market saying it will create more volatility. do you think it is going to create more volatility? >> it is a tricky one.
i think the physical market of refiners, it does create uncertainty for them. think about asian refiners, they use middle eastern food as baseload. when they do not know how much they are going to get, they have to purchase barrels. most of these have to trade in the atlantic basin. which then take an extra month to sail to asia. they need to buy this crude a month in advance of the middle eastern grade. there can be volatility weight if they buy more crude from the atlantic basin or even the u.s., thinking opec does not increase and then opec does increase. there could be some volatility but this deal gives them in a norma's amount of flexibility. if they are just delayed by three months, they would not be able to tweak downwards. i think that is what the market has missed in the headlines. in theory, and march, we could
be lower than where we are today. extending it would not have given them that flexibility. i think this really does make sure the market will not be an oversupply in q1. stating: goldman sachs their forecast is 65 dollars a barrel. do you agree with that? >> i think there is a possibility, after real tightening in the market in 2022 and 2202020. but the recovery in asia is something to watch out for. continues, weum could see the oversupply disappear earlier than what we are expecting. we are only expecting and to disappear at the end of the year. it could disappear by the first half. the second half, we could see things tightening up. u.s. production is tight. the rest of the world is declining. given there has been no investment whatever, it is going
to be supply that dominates the story in the second half. annmarie: i want to ask about personalities.d i was shocked his royal highness decided not to cochair the meeting which means alexander novak chaired it alone. do you think the saudis are losing a little but of control over the group? >> no, honestly, i do not agree with that. i will say there was a lot of drama and this meeting. a lot of tensions flying high. i think the issue this time -- remember prince aziz said monday, he is not change, because again our conversations suggested they are sick and tired of almost being a schoolteacher. having to put everybody in the line about compliances and so
forth. he said this yesterday as well, i was listening into the press conference. it is hard. it is hard to control the media all this different news flying around. he said i did my bit, now let someone else do it. i was under novak and particular, but the others as well, pleaded with him. particularr novak in , but the others as well, pleaded with him. the credibility of the group rests on him and alexander novak being cochairs. i have had hedge funds say we would much rather take 2 million barrels per day than lose saudi. i think they get that. annmarie: interesting. we will be seeing a lot more of you. the fact we are going to have opec meetings every months. she is chief oil analyst at energy aspects. with the election of joe biden, green energy has been pushed
back onto the global agenda. hopeful thee was new administration would bring new demand for green -- momentum for green. >> the world has been traveling in an opposite direction. deglobalization, all these things have changed for the worse for that matter. i am quite full for -- hopeful with the new administration coming in, there will be a change of sentiment. hopefully effectively a change of direction. happen, if we cannot find a way to make globalization, cooperation work, i do not think we are going to succeed. biden is thenk joe right solution to that? >> i am not a u.s. citizen so i
did not vote in the election. is too early to say exactly what the policies will be of a biden harris administration. but i think rejoining paris is critical to that. that sitof the ideas behind the green deal, are not bad either. in the end, it is all the practicalities that will matter and we would like to see how they play out. the fundamental idea of more collaboration, more progressive policies, working hard on the issues, they are the same things we stand for as a company. annmarie: is there something you and your team are preparing for the administration to do or hoping they will do, like you were front running and the u.k., about the ban on petrol and diesel cars?
is there something you are planning for with the ayden harris administration? >> not practically on the ground, but we have contacts with whatever administration happens to be in washington. we have what i believe is localized leadership in the energy system. also on policy measures that can be taken. you have a very good idea how the energy system in the u.s. works and how it could evolve. to stand oury thinking and our ideas with the administration, the same we we do in europe. ceo speaking shell exclusively to myself. you can catch the entire interview later this afternoon. let's get a recap of the first word news. talks on the trade verge of a breakthrough have hit a last-minute bum. the british government said the
prospect of an imminent deal had receded, blaming the eu for coming up with a new set of demands. those close to the european side intended whether this was intended to apply last-minute pressure on the top. morgan stanley is handing out a one-time bonus for lower paid workers. they will give around half of their 30,000 global workers a one-off payment of $1000. it adds to morgan stanley's promise it will not cut its workforce this year. delta airlines is warning cash losses for the current quarter could be deeper than expected as the coronavirus continues to undermine air travel. delta now expects to burn up to $14 million a day up from an earlier forecast of $12 million. the airline says revenue will be 30% less then for the same time last year. news, 24w does --
with both companies about why ryanair is making the commitment now. >> this is the time and moment. boeing has gone through a torrid year, not just with a drip -- the downing of the max but covid as well. you get a sense that the team with boeing, the regulators and the team in europe, this is the most audited, safest, most regulated aircraft ever to be flown to meet it had already flown for 22 months before the tragic accident. 47 million people have already flown in a boeing max aircraft. the systems have been redesigned, upgraded. there is comprehensive training. we have three max simulators. we put our pilots through it. they love the aircraft. the aircraft performs billion link. we were heartened by the strong , their patrick e
statement on the 24th of november gave to the work dave and the team at boeing have done. it is a great aircraft, it is a safe aircraft. we can't wait to take delivery of these planes and we know our customers are going to enjoy flying in them. >> let's pick up some of those points. you have got all lot of aircraft, 737 max is. -- max. those are not the ones, they are going to be new ones. what are you going to do with the ones you currently have sitting on the lot? are you going to make any money considering it is such a buyers market? for depletingt that inventory is roughly a two year timeframe. we are confident that can be done.
the most important thing about the economics associated with that inventory are sort of when you do it, how patient can you be? faith in thedible recovery of the industry. if anything, relative to the early projections we made with respect to recovery, this vaccine development and the potential global distribution of that vaccine, if anything accelerates our view of recovery and the faith and that recovery read relative to where we were when we begin with the covid crisis. -- faith in that recovery relative to where we were only begin the covid crisis. that is the way we are playing it. in andam very confident i think this order is a testament to his the value of the airplane to the airlines,
and the performance it gives them. low-cost, lowl, fare, is creating the growth track our industry has enjoyed for so long. it allows for more passengers. it introduces more passengers to the industry. it spurs tourism, all those good things. for him to select this airplane based on its performance day in and day out is a testament to that value. that is what we will have to hang our hats on. positive words from dave about the outlook. i have looked at your november traffic numbers, they were out yesterday. they were down 82%. isn't this purchase a little out of kilter with anticipated demand at the moment? balanceyou paying your sheet at risk? is there any flex ability in terms of the deal if demand does not come back as quickly as you and to sedate? >> -- as you anticipate?
>> do we need that flex ability? november, we were down 80%. europe has been in a second locked down. by the time we get into the new year, the vaccines are coming, they are already beginning to be licensed. travel is going to snap back very strongly. ryanair's michael o'leary talking to guy johnson yesterday. this is bloomberg. ♪
is looking for a replacement as ceo. the candidates being considered are all men. this begs the question, where are the women? you wrote this great note about the changing of the culture going on in the banking industry or lack there of. when it comes to the high-profile leadership levels, where are the women? >> that is a great question and thank you for having me. the changing of the guard, it is a historic reshuffling, musical chairs going on in the top leadership of the european bank. disappointingly, the new cast of characters looks very much the old cast of characters. the opportunity to really address one of the issues that is acute in the banking space has not really been addressed. question inur short, we did not see a very
good pipeline of women. today for instance, ubs has announced a shakeup in its management ranks and has nominated a prominent swiss executive -- women executive to lead its swiss unit. if you look at the top executive leadership at europe's biggest natwest is perhaps an outlier, having a woman ceo. and santander has a woman as chairman. are and less, they visible roles. annmarie: you write the world of hostile andbe isolating to someone who is not white, straight, and a male. what has changed in the past few years? >> a lot of the changes have only accelerated in the last two
years. there was this huge time where there was a vacuum in the kind of steps that needed to be taken to aggressively address this in a way that could ensure future generations of women could be ascent up theuick ranks -- where the same kind of assent there male colleagues could be given. where we are today, we have made and strides and banks financial companies are realizing this to be a big issue. such a times been e thankserms of th coming to this realization. and they lost precious decades building women candidates.
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