tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 4, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EST
francine: breakthrough or breakdown? last-minute hit a roadblock. late to the game. the s&p flips late in the session after report of obstacles for pfizer's virus vaccine, even though the company made the statement earlier in september. and finding a compromise. opec agrees to slowly add more oil over next month.
they call the process excruciating. good morning, everyone. happy friday. we have made it to friday. it has been quite a week. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. the markets are focused on brexit, oil because of opec, and focus on u.s. stimulus in the u.s. stocks are holding gains, key data of course out of the u.s., it is the u.s. labor market. it is going to give us an indication of whether the economy needs support or not, and oil extending gains after nine-month high after this opec-plus deal. i am looking at the dollar, treasuries pretty much nudging higher. a lot ofve a prett volatility because of brexit -- do we have a deal, do we not have a deal, have they walked out? it has been pretty unclear so far, talking about last-minute ships come up the british saying it is because of eu demands at the last moment,
but it seems like it could be up in the air. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news. here is leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. a rescue package will not be dropped unless brussels upholds its ties or democratic values, an agreement between his nation and poland to hold up the budget. at comments propose a deal the eu summit next week. anthony county, the u.s. government's top infectious disease specialist, has rode back on his criticism of the uk's approval of the covid vaccine. he said he did not mean to imply any sloppiness. meanwhile, president-elect joe biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask to prevent virus spread during the first 100 days of his administration. of, the opec-plus group nations has agreed to ease cuts and oil output next year, pumping an extra 5000 -- 500,000
barrels a day from january. the deal comes almost a week from negotiations that exposed a rift at the heart of the cartel. producers also decided ministers will hold monthly consultations to decide on the next one, a much shorter timeframe than usual. is to stopanwhile, offering new exploration part of in the sea as the goal to return fossil-fuel-free. gas and oil output will end by 2050. denmark's energy ministry says it will cost about 13 billion krona. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. look at us, we are ladies in red. i hope it is not an omen for the market.
british officials say the european union had suddenly turned up with a new set of demands. they did not say what the demands were, and officials have actually denied. for more, our brexit editor, ed evans, joins us. are there other demands, are there not demands, i know your team is trying to work to decide what went down. is this political posturing, negotiate intact pick come bigger risk we do not get a deal? edward: the risk we do not get a deal is always there. negotiating tactics, it is perfectly common in these late stages of negotiations for either side to make wildly different productions about the likely outcome. that is all about putting pressure on the others, and that appears to be what is happening here. what we saw earlier in the week was france coming out and warning michel barnier, the eu's chief negotiator, that it could potentially veto a deal if it
goes against france's national interests. that is a reminder that barnier has to sell any deal he agrees with to the eu 27 member states. they have all got to approve this unanimously. now, the british said that barnier came back to negotiations and made a whole load of demands. they will not say what they were, and the eu of course has denied them. what this suggests, if you talk to officials on both sides, they both say a breakthrough as possible in the next few days, although time is certainly running out. i think what this is setting us up is a call between boris johnson and ursula leyen, european commission president, but they and the outside chance that this is the moment where breaks down. the business x-ray was saying this morning we are at a really critical phase in negotiations
now. francine: ed, if we don't get a deal by sunday, could we get a deal by next week? is there a substantive deadline at some point? deadlinesll, brexit always move, so treat this with a printer of salt, but there are some deadlines next week. the internal market bill is going to come back to the comments on monday. that of course contains a very controversial part of the bill that will give the british ,overnment power to override highly controversial in europe. i think both sides are wanting to get a deal at least agreed him principle before they came back. there's also the eu summit from leaders, but don't forget they have got a huge argument going theand they do not want distraction of brexit going on while that is going on, so there is pressure to get it done now. don't forget, they have to get
it done before the end of the year, which is when the brexit transition period expires, because this deal has to be ratified. that is straightforward and u.k. as a parliamentary vote. in europe commit will take longer, you leaders have to approve it as will the parliament. that takes a little bit of time, and with it comes a little risk. , you so much, ed edwards there. now with us as holger schmieding, chief economist at berenberg. holger, great to have you on the program. even if we get a deal, it looks like it will be a skinny deal. financial services are not in there. do markets care that much? dr. schmieding: markets care mostly whether there will be a deal or not. the rest is somewhat detailed we would like to get rid of the uncertainty, and i think markets have come over the last year,
moved toward officiating, that it probably will be some sort of skinny deal. trade, hopefully cover but in services, the deal will have huge gaps, which means for the u.k. a longer-term economic disadvantage. francine: holger, what does it mean for how you are expecting u.k. assets and the u.k. economy to actually perform? say you have a deal, what kind of economy are we going to see? is that austerity, tax cuts, or tax hikes? how will this government actually shape what we will see 18 months from now? dr. schmieding: well, first of all, by the end of this year, one way or the other, we will probably know whether there is a deal or not, so the uncertainty, which as such, is negative, negative for the u.k. con amanda little negative for europe will be over one way or another by the end of the year.
there is going to be a deal, even if it is a skinny , as to the u.k. fiscal situation, the u.k. of course does shoot itself in the foot with brexit. it has done so ever since the referendum. as you can see, the u.k. economy as a resultformed of the brexit referendum. the u.k. will have lower trend growth, which means it will be more difficult to balance the budget, so, in a way, brexit end,see to it that in the there will be tax breaks in the u.k. if there is a deal, then the brexit deluge will be a little bit more contained for the u.k. than in the absence of a deal. so with a deal, even if it is a
skinny deal, the u.k. will reduce the need for tax hikes sometime in the future. francine: holger, at the same time, you talk about a lot of negatives for the u.k. they were completely in charge of fiscal and monetary policy. dr. schmieding: well, they have been in charge of it all the time! francine: right, but this means that compared to the others, they will have a huge advantage. will the bank of england have to make a change? dr. schmieding: well, first of all, again, the u.k. has been fully in charge of monetary policy always. francine: of course, that has not changed. dr. schmieding: i do not think that the bank of england would want to go to a negative rate. the u.k. would probably be able to use other tools in monetary policy, if they need to stimulate the economy more than that. ratestimately, indeed, are very low across the western world. is great, butrt
the physical response and secondary, getting the long-term economic policy right so that your country has a place to invest, which is where brexit comes in. monetary policy is already so supported, so tweaks would only make a modest change. francine: and of course, holger, it was not because of brexit, but in other areas, they are in charge, was my question. coming up on "bloomberg surveillance," we speak to the former you see the board member, that conversation 10:30 a.m. london time, and this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
london. hungary's prime minister, viktor not suspendhe will his block on the eu recovery fund unless they discuss democratic values. for more on this, we are joined by maria tadeo. all, is orbanf doubling down, or that could this be a bluff? he has definitely doubling down, the wording around, but you can also see that orban is really feeling the pressure from the rest of the eu 25 countries that are clearly now sending a signal that they could dig poland and hungary if that's what it takes to go to a 25 member solution. orban, feelingy the pressure on that front, get
a very subtle wording to the polish that they have agreed on a position and he is expecting es will stick to their word on that front. i would say there is a lot of pressure on him going into that summit, which will be done here in brussels for two days, potentially even entering into a strategy session, something a lot of diplomats will have to get over next week. francine: thank you so much, maria tadeo in brussels. inpoke with someone an blackrock who used to be in politics. we are back with holger schmieding. holger, a never ending summit in person in brussels. when you look at the other side, the recovery fund, is this a bluff, or is this not a bluff? and does it mean that poland and behind.will be left i just mash them up and called them holand. dr. schmieding: i think hungary
is pretty serious. we do not really need the hungarians for it. , ways ofat the eu going around a hungarian or polish veto. remain at their current position, the eu will go ahead. this will not derail the eu recovery fund, and hungary is playing that risk of losing a high-stakes game. francine: what can the eu do without them? explain why high-stakes, holger, what would happen? havechmieding: the eu can things where not all member countries have to agree. banks,r, the eu member which is not shared by all 27 eu members, we have other things, which is not a travel-free area for the entire eu, so there are arrangements within the eu treaties which would allow for
subgroups of countries to go veto of anhat the individual country could not block it. there are various ways to do that, and the eu is exploring these waves at the moment to make sure the recovery fund will happen. the problem then for hungary is if the eu goes around the hungarians, that a, they will not get any money, and that is a lot of money for them at stake, domestic political debate and hungary, it may not go down well. that is because the hungarians want to have political control over their judiciary. they are actually forfeiting money and moving a bit away from the european mainstream. the hungarians often are the ones who fear that the coil around germany and france would be the building lock for a tighter european union, and they will actually add to the fears of being left out if, with the veto, they now force the eu in the biggest project of the eu ever, to go ahead without hungary.
francine: what you are telling me ,holger, basically, you know, hungary would not be a viable member of the eu if they continue vetoing and if the eu goes ahead without them? dr. schmieding: well, they are a viable member of the eu, but they would be left out of, say, the most juicy bits of the eu at the moment, which is this fund. again, we have in the eu various members of integration. there are some members that are not part of the euro -- they do not have to. it is their choice. and if hungary decides to be outside of the fiscal integration, they could come as some have chosen to be outside of the monetary integration, they could do so, but they, the hungarians, will lose a lot of money and reputation by doing so. francine: i think, holger, behind you is a beautiful part germany, which i think is where you are talking to us from. i know you have moved to britain.
overall, brexit, no brexit deal, no deal, at this point, will london suffer because people have moved out to other financial centers? dr. schmieding: yes. london will not suffer very much because of people moving out to other financial centers, that is a modest point, but overall the u.k. and its capital, london, or already suffering by than beforegrowth the referendum by logging behind the european continent. before the referendum, the u.k. was often ahead of the european continent. now they land behind in terms of tread growth -- trend growth. it is not one big price to be paid, but year by year by year, the u.k. is losing a few opportunities that it would have had if they had decided to stay in the eu. it is a free choice, but it comes at a cost. francine: holger, thank you so much, as always, for a fun conversation, holger schmieding,
difficulties in securing all the materials needed. the group had already cut its production goes to $15 million -- doses to 15 million. with bloomberg senior pharmaceutical analyst. what does this mean, that it will be difficult for everyone to get a hold of these materials? sam: good morning, francine. obviously, the raw materials that are used, we do not know exactly what they are, but whatever they are, they are likely to be the similar ones modernay, but my dharna never promised a specific dose number, 500 million to a billion doses in 2021 commandery recently they were questioning that, why can't you commit, and
they literally said, use the words "raw materials." we do not know how this will pan out, so we need to be realistic about it. what it does mean is winning to make sure that other vaccines that are not necessarily have the same raw materials will use less of them, make it through, obviously that means clinical .ata hencine: dr. anthony fauci and a heading that they rush to clear the vaccine. what does that mean? does that mean they went too fast or doesn't hinder public confidence and regulators? sam: yeah, but he did walk that back a little but after another interview with the bbc. i do not know what level of knowledge dr. fauci, for whom i have an enormous amount of respect, has about the process. i think what he said in his latest remarks was that he did not mean that they did anything wrong but that the u.s. has a
different process. but we know that already. the u.s. asks for every single data point, raw data point to come through, and they analyze it themselves. u.k.ean and u.s., regulators have not traditionally done that, so it is faster. francine: sam, thank you so much. we will talk to sam a little bit later to talk more about the vaccines and the safety of them. fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. up next, more market commentary. this is bloomberg. ♪
second. i keep getting mixed messages about whether michel barnier is going to go back or not. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: i'm going to start with brexit, brexit trade talk said to be on the verge of a breakthrough, hitting a last-minute bump. the british government says the prospects of an imminent deal has been receded, blaming the e.u. with new demands. questioning whether the remarks are intended to pile last-minute pressure on the talks. hungary's prime minister says he will not a hint -- and his block brusselsckage unless blocked its ties upholding democratic values. he reiterated an agreement between his nation and poland to hold up the budget. the comments sent the prospect of a deal at the e.u. summit next week. the u.k. granted five passports
to hong kong residents during the of october, according to data provided by the u.k. passport office, more than 216,000 people from hong kong received british overseas passports during the first 10 months of the year, the highest annual victor -- annual victor ash annual figure since the 1997 holder. reading back on earlier criticism from the u.k. rapid approval of the covid vaccine. is said he did not need to apply any -- after describing the u.k. processed as really rushed. president-elect joe biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask to prevent virus daysd during the first 100 of his administration. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much.
i have to say, all of the conversations in every cabin london is whether you get the vaccine or not, what it will take for you to get it, and how available it is. one of the best months ever for equities as the vaccine boosted equities. what does the rest of the year and 212 2021 hold? joining us is toby nangle from columbia threadneedle. happy friday. when you look at equities and the bull run that we have seen and the record that we have had, as all the good news now priced in? a trillion dollar question there. valuation is certainly quite high. compared to at them other markets, when we think about the great environment out there, and we think about the greater level of certainty coming through with vaccine being rolled out and the kind of economic rebound that we envisage, we find some quite
good value around the market. where do you see that value? is this on the perception that we get a vaccine and that it is rolled out safely and a critical mass will take it? toby: probably most people had a vaccine in our forecast, for the -- coming through for 2021, and the positive surprise has been the high efficacy and the cost coming through. to be honest, i'm not going to get hung up on the timing of the rollout, whether it is one month later, one month earlier, but there is some understanding that there is it light -- there is light at the end of the tunnel and we could see cyclicality perform better. we have been increasing allocations to the japanese market, where we see some really high-quality cyclicality, with some not outlandish valuation, and we have also been increasing our exposure to japan in the
wake of president biden's victory. if you look at this rotation, what do you do with -- i know you look at equities, but what do you do with bonds? what could spur that base case that you're talking about? toby: it's a really important question. predicated on the idea that bond markets remain in their box, really. elect'sesident biden victory has been well noted and the vaccine has come through, there has been day to day volatility in government bonds. but the levels have not changed a huge amount. we are not expecting them to change a huge amount over the next year. we think they are going to be pretty much contained if, let's say, the 30-year treasury is up to 13%. there is a lot of risk around
that because the fiscal boxes, a lot of politicians are seeking to open that physical box and provide a faster pace of potentially more reflationary pressures coming through, right now covid has put such a big hole in the economy. to keep a good reason yields pinned down. also, you've got to remember, the amount of debt that has been put on, on the corporate side, the household side, and the government side, there is a greater sensitivity to slow the economy from here. so we see yields pretty much remaining not too far from where they are, so we don't see a lot of value in government bonds. and indeed, the role of international allocation portfolio government bonds is going to be much less useful, we think, going forward. francine: we are just getting some news out of michael saunders of the bank of england saying a rate cut plus qe a be the best stimulus approach, and
he's also saying that negative rates review is ongoing. what do you do with u.k. assets at this juncture in time? we don't know if we have a deal come at even if we get a deal it is a skinny deal, basically ignoring large parts of the economy. toby: brexit has been pretty hard to call on a day by day basis. emerged, we have seen optimism come through in sterling whereby when i speak to people across the foreign exchange markets, they tell me there is 100% certainty of a deal priced in already. frames it,question there is not a huge amount of economic difference between a skinny deal add no deal. obviously it would be much less disruptive to have a skinny deal and it would set the scene for a more productive relationship with our european partners. base case is -- my a skinny deal, and we would not
allow u.k. equities to rerate a little bit more. they are still quite depressed. we have seen a bit of rereading, but not a huge amount. i think a lot of the u.k. outperformance since the end of october has been more about the high waiting to energy in thencials performing across globe. what do we do with u.k. assets? those aspects that we think will perform well, cyclicality, we are choosing more to get that in japan than in the u.k.. but i can certainly see the u.k. markets doing reasonably well when a skinny deal comes through , as some of those positive trends that would help the u.k. market at the same cyclicality, perhaps the last bit of brexit premia attached to people looking for a no deal. but we are choosing to take that elsewhere.
francine: do you expect dollar weakness from now? how is dollar weakness from other assets? toby: over the medium-term, we are looking for dollar weakness. the euro strength has been a little bit of a headwind, but it has not been profound so far. canng some dollar weakness provide a bit of relief to emerging markets. dollar environment could be actually quite constructive for emerging markets in particular, and we are seeking to kinda take toosure to that, exposure asia and japan. -- asia x japan. francine: coming up, oil optimism gets a boost after opec soft measures reaching agreement on output costs. that is coming up next, and this
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get to the bloomberg business flash with leigh-ann gerrans. itsh-ann: pfizer scale back vaccine production targets earlier this year after running into difficulty securing all the materials he needed. it originally promised up to 100 million doses this year, but now says the target is 50 million. a spokesperson released a statement saying the scale up of the raw material supply chain did take longer than expected. morgan stanley is handing out a special one-time bonus for lower paid workers as the firm heads toward a record year. the bank will give around half of its 30,000 global employees a
one-off payment of $1000. the benefit adds to morgan stanley's promise it will not cut its workforce this year despite the fallout from covid-19. delta airlines is morning cash losses for the quarter could be deeper than expected as the underminingcould be air travel. delta is expected to burn up to $14 million a day, up from an earlier forecast of $12 million. the airline says revenue will be 30% less and from the same period last year, in line with earlier estimates. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: oil extends gains after opec-plus reaches an agreement to gradually ease production cuts. the deal comes after a day of tense negotiations. the ruble start adding 500,000 barrels a day to the market in january. the saudi minister said output would be kept under review. tweak upward, we
could tweak downward, we could stay put, and it is all about addressing uncertainty. if you have an uncertain situation, you need to be active. that is why central bankers meet every month, that is why we are meeting at all levels. this is a grand arrangement, this is a grand commitment. francine: it is great to keep all options on the table. joining us now -- great to have you. opec is increasing production. why hasn't the market reacted positively? >> because they say they might be worse for two reasons. putting nine -- 1.9 million barrels a day into the market, that has not happened. there was a lot of
attention on disagreement, so opec, there was some tension between the uae and saudi arabia. we saw a two-day delay as they resolved their differences, and the market is relieved that the meeting was successful and everyone was able to come to a consensus. : what this next year actually look like now that opec has agreed to monthly meetings? will: we know how tense and stressful opec policymaking can be, and every month will make some of the market nervous -- ite it gives room for seems to slow up on a more regular basis. to be a recovery oil market but a -- a recovering oil market but a tricky oil market. pandemic and a lot of uncertainty in europe and the they don't know how 50 the vaccine rollup is going to happen, how quickly the
market will recover next year. they need to maintain that flux ability. small increments and regular meetings might make sense. francine: when you look at some of the chatter, it really showed us how divided some of the cartel is after these five very long days of negotiations and difficult days for negotiations. we were talking about not a story for now, but longer-term, certain countries dropping out of opec. is it still the case? is this going to be looked back on as a decisive week on whether the group can stick together or not? will: i'm not sure this is a decisive meeting. it shows tensions about managing the oil market after the pandemic and what the different countries want to do as we recover. -- uae feels like it is countries like nigeria and iraq need more money, but ultimately
opec tends to find a way. people are worried about the future of opec for a very long time now, and it tends to find a way. i think there will be tensions again, but i think this meeting is not decisive in the future but it shows that they can still hang together and find a compromise. francine: thank you so much. great work, you and your team. will kennedy, who oversees opec coverage. the election of joe biden in the united states, rena energy has been pushed firmly back onto the global objective -- green energy has been pushed firmly back onto the global objective. >> in the last five-plus years, we have been traveling in the opposite direction. deglobalization, lateral is them, have changed quite for the worse. i am quite hopeful that with the
new administration coming in, there will be a change of sentiment, and hopefully also effectively a change of direction. because if it doesn't happen, if make itt find a way to everything else worked, i don't think we will succeed with the energy message. is theou think joe biden right solution to that? a u.s.ll, i am not citizen and i did not vote in the election, so i cannot comment on the candidates. say on whatrly to exactly the policy will be with a biden-harris administration. but i think rejoining paris is a good start. and some of the ideas that sit behind the green deal -- they are not bad either, but in the end it is all the practicalities that will matter. we will have to see how they
play out. but the whole fundamental idea of more collaboration, more progressive policies, working hard on emissions, they are the same things that -- is there something that you and your team are hoping to do, but you are pretty front running in the u.k. on the ban on petrol and diesel cars? is there something you're planning with the biden-harris administration? ben: not practically on the ground, but obviously we have confidence with whatever administration happens to be in washington. we have what i believe is well thought leadership on the energy system, and also on policy measures that can be taken. you have a very good idea on how the energy system in the u.s. works and how it could evolve, and we stand ready to share our
thinking and our ideas with the administration, the same way as we do in europe. that was the shell chief executive ben van beurden there. coming up, we have seen a number of high-profile moves in european banking, but there are men. the lack of women in finance is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's turn to banking. we have seen a number of high-profile moves in europe. and tear ne-yo is leaving lloyds banking group to be -- antonio is leaving lloyds bank group to be president of credit suisse. ta --ump on this where are the women in finance? joining us is our executive editor for emea. i know you have written a you have piece about
written a bow wonderful piece about women in finance. >> this is a once in a generation change about europe's financial institutions, and disappointingly, the cost of new characters looks very much like the old guard, so we are seeing a lot of men who are taking over the reins of leadership, and a bit of a lost opportunity to elevate women executives, and a loan outlier here has been in named at least, less here anderson rose as ceo. but if you look at all of the leaders across europe step of banks and other financial institutions, they are mostly male. question is, are there not enough women in the positions like second-in-command?
the chief executive usually has to groomed or had experience across the board. so is it that there are women in the second chain of command that are being overlooked, or are there not enough women in leadership in deposition? right, andis exactly you have highlighted an important issue, which is the bench, making that bench robust, and it takes years of planning. you cannot accelerate that process and what this really highlights is that banks have been behind the curve in planning for an eventual .hanging of the guard when you look around, the new generation of leaders, women are conspicuously absent from that chain. it is heartening to see, for instance today, ups did announce a shakeup.
there are senior women executives at ubs who are coming up the chain. similarly with deutsche bank. you are beginning to see women ascend to the ranks of executives. however, you know, this process does take decades sometimes, and thanks have just started planning for this very late. francine: thank you for all of that. salaam --back to the it is a big day for the jobless figures in the u.s. to look for that. the other big story is opec for oil. there is news on the u.k. brexit negotiations, we are trying to figure out how they are going. we just have another headline coming in from reuters saying the u.k. trade deal is expected by the end of the weekend. from our own sources, that is
what we had understood, but then something happened last night. we are checking with colleagues, ringing the phones to make sure that we have all the facts straight for you. count pretty much unchanged at the moment, or at least i am looking at euro-sterling, 0.9030. "bloomberg surveillance" continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me out of new york. we will talk to a number of market participants, and we will talk crypto currency with the former ceo of the eb i.s.. general what roles are played in the future for central banks. this is bloomberg. ♪
roadblock as the u.k. warns over fresh demands, but e.u. officials deny it. sterling hits its highest since 2018. late to the game. the s&p slips late in the session on a report of supply chain obstacles for pfizer's virus vaccine, even though the company made the statement in early november while virus deaths hit a record in the u.s. and italy. and finding a compromise. opec-plus agrees to slowly add more oil next year after days of tense talks. saudi arabia's energy minister calls the process "excruciating." good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, i have to say, you look at the data in the u.s., it could be market moving, but we are trying to figure out whether we will have a deal by the end of the weekend on brexit. it is amazing, the headlines. it is quite exciting. im: i don't think it